Search results for: “China”
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China Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions, 2000-2060
This data-file is our China Energy Model and China CO2 Model, disaggregating China’s energy demand by industry, across coal, oil, gas, wind, solar, hydro and nuclear, across c200 lines, from 2000-2060, with 20-input variables that can be stress-tested. There are routes to reach Net Zero in China by 2060, but it requires some heroic assumptions.
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Material and manufacturing costs by region: China vs US vs Europe?
Material and manufacturing costs by region are compared in this data-file for China vs the US vs Europe. Generally, compared with the US, materials costs are 10% lower in China, and 40% higher in Germany, although it depends upon the specific value chain. A dozen different examples are contrasted in this data-file, especially for solar…
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Carbon leakage: China versus the West, 1999-2019
The purpose of this data-file is to assess how ‘industrial activity’ has changed, in China and in the West (US and Europe), from 1999-2019, as a proxy for ‘carbon leakage’. We find heavier industrial activity is down 12% in the West over this 20-year period, and up 6.5x in China.
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China coal production costs?
China coal production costs are estimated on a full-cycle basis in this data-file, averaging $75/ton across large listed miners, with assets in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi. The costs are increasing at $1.3/ton/year, as mines move deeper and into smaller seams. Smaller regional have 1.5-2x higher costs again, and will hit LNG price parity around…
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China’s Shale Challenge?
This data-file quantifies the most-discussed challenges for developing Chinese shale gas, after a review of the technical literature, as well as the solutions suggested to combat them, and our “top ten conclusions” on Chinese shale.
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China: can the factory of the world decarbonize?
China now aspires to reach ‘net zero’ CO2 by 2060. But is this compatible with growing an industrial economy and attaining Western living standards? The best middle-ground sees China’s coal phased out and gas rising by a vast 10x to 300bcfd. The biggest challenges are geopolitics and sourcing enough LNG.
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All the coal in China: our top ten charts?
Chinese coal provides 15% of the world’s energy, equivalent to 4 Saudi Arabia’s worth of oil. Global energy markets may become 10% under-supplied if this output plateaus per our ‘net zero’ scenario. Alternatively, might China ramp its coal, especially as Europe bids harder for renewables and LNG post-Russia? This note presents our ‘top ten’ charts.
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Rise of China: the battle is trade, the war is technology?
China’s pace of technology development is now 6x faster than the US, as measured across 40M patent filings, contrasted back to 1920 in this short, 7-page note. The implications are frightening. Questions are raised over the Western world’s long-term competitiveness, especially in manufacturing; and the consequences of decarbonization policies that hurt competitiveness.
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Global patent filings: by region, by industry, over time?
Global patent filings numbered 7M in 2022, rising at a 10% CAGR, suggesting that the pace of global technology is accelerating. The patent filings also provide support for megatrends such as rising commodity demand, digitalization and electrification. However, 79% of all patents globally are now filed in China, while the US is also very strong,…
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Global coal supply-demand: outlook in energy transition?
Global coal use likely hit a new all-time peak of 8.8GTpa in 2024, of which 7.6GTpa is thermal coal and 1.1GTpa is metallurgical. The largest consumers are China (5GTpa), India (1.3GTpa), other Asia (1.2GTpa), Europe (0.4GTpa) and the US (0.4GTpa). This model presents our forecasts for global coal supply-demand from 1990 to 2050.
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