Search results for: “commodity prices”
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Commodity prices: metals, materials and chemicals?
Annual commodity prices are tabulated in this database for 70 materials commodities; covering steel prices, other metal prices, chemicals prices, polymer prices, all with data going back to 2012. 2022 was a record year for commodities. The average material commodity traded 25% above its 10-year average and 60% of all material commodities made ten-year highs.
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Very long term historical commodity prices and disruptions?
This data-file aggregates long-term historical commodity prices back to 1800, predominantly in the US, using academic records and census data. Historical commodity prices generally fell 30-70% in the 19th and early 20th century, punctuated by supply disruptions due to wars, then rose by 12.5x from 1945 to the present day.
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Commodity price volatility: energy, metals and ags?
Commodity price volatility tends to be lognormally distributed, based on the data from ten commodities, over the past 50-years. Means are 20% higher than medians. Skew factors average +1.5x. Standard errors average 50%, while more volatile prices have more upside skew.
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How do commodities perform during recessions?
How do commodities perform in recessions? Industrial metals are usually hit hardest, falling 35% peak-to-trough. Energy price spikes partly cause two-thirds of recessions, then typically trade back to pre-recession levels. Precious metals, mainly gold, tend to appreciate in financial crises. Data are compiled in this file, across recessions back to 1970.
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Coal-to-gas switching: what CO2 abatement cost?
Coal-to-gas switching halves the CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy. This data-file estimates the CO2 abatement costs. Gas is often more expensive than coal. But as a rule of thumb, a $30-60/ton CO2 price makes $6-8/mcf gas competitive with $60-80/ton coal. CO2 abatement costs are materially lower in the US and after reflecting efficiency.…
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Energy transition: top commodities?
This data-file summarizes our latest thesis on ten commodities with upside in the energy transition. The average one will see demand rise by 3x and price/cost appreciate or re-inflate by 100%. The data-file contains a 6-10 line summary of our work into each commodity.
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Commodity intensity of global GDP in 30 key charts?
The commodity intensity of global GDP has fallen at -1.2% over the past half-century, as incremental GDP is more services-oriented. So is this effect adequately reflected in our commodity outlooks? This 4-page report plots past, present and forecasted GDP intensity factors, for 30 commodities, from 1973->2050. Oil is anomalous. And several commodities show rising GDP…
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Global electricity prices vs. CO2 intensities?
Retail electricity prices average 11c/kWh globally, of which 50-60% is wholesale power generation, 25-35% is transmission and 10-20% covers other administrative costs of utilities. The average CO2 intensity of the global average power grid is 0.45 kg/kWh. Variations are wide. And there is a -35% correlation between electricity prices vs CO2 intensities in different countries…
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Residential energy prices: reasons for optimism?
Residential energy prices tend to run 4x higher than underlying wholesale energy prices. This is a very wide margin, as by contrast, typical commoditized products in supermarkets are usually only marked up by about 2x, compared to their wholesale prices. Today’s data-file compares retail prices vs wholesale prices across a dozen different categories. A remarkable…
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California electricity prices by hour?
In 2023, power grids with c20-30% solar variation tend to have intra-day spreads of 9c/kWh, between peak wholesale electricity prices at 8pm and trough prices at 10am. Unusually, night-time electricity prices are 40% higher than day-time prices. This data-file quantifies California electricity prices, on a wholesale basis, at a sample of grid nodes, looking hour…
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