Search results for: “shortage crisis”
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Energy shortage: fear in a handful of dust?
Should restoring the world’s energy surplus be seen as the most important ESG goal of the 2020s? This 12-page note outlines our top ten considerations, as our energy balances have deteriorated even further in the last year. Under-supply could persist through 2030. Shortages have cruel consequences. And unexpected ripple effects. Energy surplus also helps energy…
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Oil demand: how much can you save in a crisis?
Oil consuming countries are encouraged to have emergency plans to save 7-10% of their demand in a crisis. This data-file outlines how. c10Mbpd could be saved globally. But it requires extreme measures. Largest are odd-even rationing, ride-sharing, free public transit and lower highway speed limits.
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Energy crisis: ten themes for 2022?
We are all hoping for ‘normalization’ in 2022. But what if the world is instead entering a full-blown energy crisis, as severe and persistent as the first ‘oil shock’? This 21-page note lays out ten hypotheses, drawing on history. Everything we know about energy transition may change this year.
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Digitization after the crisis: who benefits and how much?
We have constructed a database of digitization case studies around the energy industry to quantify the benefits, screen the most digital operators and identify longer-term winners in the supply chain. The theme will accelerate. Just 8% of digitized industrial processes will be materially disrupted due to COVID-19, compared to 80% of non-digitized processes.
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Global coal supply-demand: outlook in energy transition?
Global coal use likely hit a new all-time peak of 8.8GTpa in 2024, of which 7.6GTpa is thermal coal and 1.1GTpa is metallurgical. The largest consumers are China (5GTpa), India (1.3GTpa), other Asia (1.2GTpa), Europe (0.4GTpa) and the US (0.4GTpa). This model presents our forecasts for global coal supply-demand from 1990 to 2050.
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COVID-19: what have the oil markets missed?
In the short-term, global oil demand could decline by -11.5Mbpd YoY in 2Q20 due to COVID-19. This is over 15x worse than the global financial crisis of 2008-9, too large for any coordinated production cuts to offset. However, in the medium-term, once the worst of the crisis is over, new driving behaviours could actually increase…
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LNG: deep disruptions?
The last oil industry crisis, in 2014-16, slowed down LNG project progress, setting the stage for 20-60MTpa of under-supply in 2021-23. The current COVID-crisis could cause a further 15-45MTpa of supply-disruptions, after looking line-by-line through our database of 120 projects. The result is a potential 100MTpa shortfall in 2024-26. This is negative for energy transition,…
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Manufacturing utilization rates by industry?
This data-file tabulates the utilization rates of different industries over time, based on a variety of data sources. Manufacturing utilization rates ran at almost 80% prior to the COVID crisis, underpinning 11% of US GDP and 25% of US energy consumption. No manufacturing industry can realistically be profitable running at the c35% utilization rates of…
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Energy crises: an overview from history?
This data-file reviews a dozen energy crisis, caused by shortages of coal, oil, gas or electricity, from twentieth century history. Especially the 1973-74 oil shock. The average crisis co-occurs with a 2.3x rise in the commodity price, energy rationing, inflation and economic deterioration.
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How do commodities perform during recessions?
How do commodities perform in recessions? Industrial metals are usually hit hardest, falling 35% peak-to-trough. Energy price spikes partly cause two-thirds of recessions, then typically trade back to pre-recession levels. Precious metals, mainly gold, tend to appreciate in financial crises. Data are compiled in this file, across recessions back to 1970.
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