the research consultancy for energy technologies
What outlook for oil in the energy transition? Our research sees global oil demand peaking at 103Mbpd in the mid-2020s. Then oil demand gradually declines to 85Mbpd of demand by 2050, as part of the lowest cost roadmap to net zero.
In order for oil to remain a part of a decarbonized energy system requires producers to abate all of their CO2. Specifically, today’s industry has a Scope 1+2 CO2 footprint averaging 60kg/bbl (which must be reduced), across upstream, midstream and downstream. Combusting each barrel then emits around 380kg of CO2 (which must be offset or captured). Effectively, oil must become the cleanest and lowest carbon oil possible.
There are changes in the product mix for oil in the energy transition. Smaller vehicles will be electrified, by a ramp-up of 2bn electric vehicles. However, jet fuel, diesel and shipping may find it most economical to continue using low-carbon oil, and offset the climate impacts with high-quality nature-based CO2 removals.
This page aggregates all of our oil research, data-files and models. It covers short, medium and long-term oil demand. It covers offshore oil. And technologies to help lower the CO2 intensity of oil.
This data-file quantifies the impact that technology can have on offshore economics. We start with a 250-line field model, for a typical offshore oil and gas project. We then list our “top twenty” offshore technologies, which can improve the economics. In a third tab, we update our base case model, line-by-line, to reflect these twenty technologies. Finally, the “before” and the “after” are compared and contrasted.
We have estimated the costs of a subsea riser system, for a typical deep-water project; and the potential cost-reduction that can be achieved by using ThermoPlastic Composite Pipe instead (e.g., Airborne, Magma). Savings should be around c45%, or c$20M/riser. Our data-file also includes the order-history to-date for TCP: by project, operator, and geography (below).
Due to the limitations of mechanical recycling, 85% of the world’s plastic is incinerated, dumped into landfill, or worst of all, ends up in the oceans. An alternative, plastic pyrolysis, is on the cusp of commercialisation. We have assessed twenty technology solutions. This nascent opportunity can turn plastic back into oil, generate >30% IRRs on investment, and could displace 15Mbpd of future oil demand.
We see potential for plastic-recycling technologies to displace 15Mbpd of potential oil demand growth (i.e., naphtha, LPGs and ethane) by 2060, compared to a business-as-usual scenario of demand growth. In a more extreme case, oil demand for conventional plastics could halve. This simple model allows you to vary the input assumptions and derive your own outputs.
Shale is a ‘tech’ industry. And the technology is improving at a remarkable pace. But Permian technology is improving faster than anywhere else. These are our conclusions after reviewing 300 technical papers from 2018. We address whether the Permian will therefore dominate future supply growth.
This data-file breaks down the production losses at a giant offshore oilfield, across five categories and ten sub-categories. They are addressable with digital oilfield technologies, as shown by our notes. Advanced algorithms such as BP’s Apex solution, are capable of reducing the losses — particularly in the largest categories. Halving them could increase output by c55kbpd.
Shale comprises c5% of global supply and c20% of global R&D; while offshore comprises c30% of global supply, but <10% of global R&D, according to our estimates. This simple file aims to break down the oil and gas industry’s R&D activities, by category and sub-category, based on the >1,000 patents and >300 SPE papers we have categorized so far.