This model contains our live, basin-by-basin shale forecasts. It covers the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford, as a function of the rig count, drilling productivity, completion rates, well productivity and type curves. Thus, we derive production and financial expectations.
For 2020, we model the impacts of a price collapse to $30/bbl. In this scenario, c270 rigs are shed YoY in 2H20, to keep the core shale basins running within cash flow. This slows supply growth from +1.2Mbpd YoY in 2019 to +0.4Mbpd 2020 and sets the stage for a -0.5Mbpd decline in 2021.
Our longer-term numbers hinge on the productivity gainsdescribed in our thematic research. Shale productivity trebled from 2012-2018. We think it can effectively double again by 2025. This would unleash c20Mbpd of US liquids production by 2025, within cash flow at a flat $50/bbl Brent input.
We have compiled a database of over 100 companies, which have already flown c40 aerial vehicles (aka “flying cars”) and the number should rise to c60 by 2021.
The datasubstantiates our conclusion that aerial vehicles will gain credibility in the 2020s, the way electric vehicles did in the 2010s. Our latest updated in early-2020 shows strong progress was made in 2019 (chart below).
The database categorizes the top vehicle conceptsby type, company, year-founded, company-size, company-geography, backers, fuel-type, speed, range, take-off weight, payload, year of first prototype, target commercial delivery date, fuel economy and required battery weights.
Some vehicle concepts are extremely impressive and credible; but a few may find it more challenging to meet the ranges they have promised at current battery densities…
This data-file assesses the outlook for 25 plastic pyrolysis companies, operating (or constructing) 100 plants around the world, which use chemical processes to turn waste plastics back into oil.
Our data-fileincludes the number of plants, locations, start-up years, input-types and capacities for each plant. We also include our own notes, our assessment’s of each company’s technology.
The data-file has been updated in 1Q20, revising our rankings, and adsding an assessment of 2019’s pace of newsflow. It is extremely encouraging to see Super-Majors entering the fray (Shell, TOTAL, BP), as well as strong progress from the leading companies.
This database tabulates c200 venture investmentsmade by 8 of the leading Oil Majors, as the energy industry advances and transitions.
The largest portionof activity is still aimed at incubating Upstream technologies (c40% of the investments), as might be expected.
But leading Majors are also building rapid capabilitiesin new energies (38%) and digital (36%), as the energy system evolves. We are impressed by the opportunities. Venturing is likely the right model to create most value.
The full databaseshows which topic areas are most actively targeted by venturing; including by company. We also chart which companies have gained stakes in the most interesting start-ups.
This data-file reviews 300 technical papers from 2018 and 350 technical papers from 2019. Hence, we can identify the cutting edge of shale technology. Each paper is summarised, categorized by topic, by country, by basin, by company and by ‘impact’.
The YoY trends in 2019 show an incredible uptick in EOR, machine learning and well spacing studies, which are fully reviewed in the file.
On our assessment, one third of the papers support material improvements in well-productivity. c98% are data-driven, including c39% using advanced computational modelling and another c20% using data to optimise operations.
The Permian hosted the most research, pulling further ahead of other basins. You may be surprised by the identities of the companies publishing the most technical papers in shale.
This data-file tracks the Lula oilfield, well-by-well, FPSO-by-FPSO, aggregating data from over 100 production reports, which are published monthly by Brazil’s national hydrocarbon regulator.
Hence we have formulated “production forecasts” for each FPSO, and for the entire field; in 2H19 and in 1H20. This matters for oil markets; and for pre-salt producers, such as Petrobas, Shell and Galp.
Our outlook is for slowing growth, due to rising water- and gas-cuts, which are reviewed well-by-well. One FPSO is now definitively constrained by gas-handling capacity. Another is off-plateau due to maturity. Six Lula FPSOs are now negotiating water-cuts, as shown in the data-file.
1H19 production was lower than expected, at just 72% of total installed FPSO capacity. Our notes attribute the drivers, and contextualise the growth ahead.
This data-file contains all our data on the energy economics of e-scooters, a transformational technology for urban mobility, where demand has exploded in 2018 and 2019. And for good reason. The data-file includes:
Our projections of the oil demand destroyed by scooters
Our projections of the electricity demand created by scooters
Number of US travel-trips using shared bikes and scooters from 2010-18
Scooter costs versus car and taxi costs per mile
Average ranges and battery sizes of incumbent scooter models
Relative energy economics of scooters versus gasoline cars and EVs
Relative time taken to charge scooters versus EVs using solar panels
The proportion of scooter trips that replace gasoline car trips in eight cities
Profiles of the top 4 e-scooter companies
A timeline of shared mobility from 1965 to 2018.
The download will also enable you to adjust the input assumptions, to test different scenarios.
This data-file compares different trucking fuels— diesel, CNG, LNG, LPG and Hydrogen — across 35 variables. Most important are the economics, which are fully modelled.
Natural Gas can be close to competitive. On an energy-equivalent basis, $3/mcf gas is 4x more economical than $3/gal diesel. However, the advantages are offset by higher vehicle costs, operational costs and logistical costs. Overall, CNG ends up 10% more expensive, and LNG ends up 30% more expensive versus diesel-trucking. Mild environmental positives of gas are also offset by mild operational challenges.
Hydrogen still screens as an expensive alternative. We estimate vehicle costs are 2x higher than diesel trucks, while $15/kg hydrogen is 4x more expensive than diesel as a fuel.
This model calculates the costs per passenger-kilometer for transportation, based on mileage, load factors, fuel prices (oil and electricity), fuel-economy, vehicle costs and maintenance costs.
Ground level vehiclesare assessed using data from around the industry, on gasoline, electric, owned and taxi vehicles.
Aerial vehicles could competewith taxis as early as 2025. By the 2030s, their costs can be 60% below the level of car ownership.
This modelshows all of our input assumptions and calculations.
What are the top technologies to transform the global energy industry and the world? This data-file summarises where we have conducted differentiated analysis, across c65 technologies (and counting).
For each technology, we summarise the opportunity in two-lines. Then we score its economic impact, its technical maturity (TRL), and the depth of our work to-date. The output is a ranking of the top technologies, by category; and a “cost curve” for the total costs to decarbonise global energy.
Download this data-fileand you will also receive updates for a year, as we add more technologies; and we will also be happy to dig into any technologies you would like to see added to the list.
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