Ventures for an Energy Transition?

This database tabulates c200 venture investments made by 8 of the leading Oil Majors, as the energy industry advances and transitions.

The largest portion of activity is still aimed at incubating Upstream technologies (c40% of the investments), as might be expected.

But leading Majors are also building rapid capabilities in new energies (38%) and digital (36%), as the energy system evolves. We are impressed by the opportunities. Venturing is likely the right model to create most value.

The full database shows which topic areas are most actively targeted by venturing; including by company. We also chart which companies have gained stakes in the most interesting start-ups.

The cutting edge of shale technology?

This data-file reviews 300 technical papers from 2018 and 350 technical papers from 2019. Hence, we can  identify the cutting edge of shale technology. Each paper is summarised, categorized by topic, by country, by basin, by company and by ‘impact’.

The YoY trends in 2019 show an incredible uptick in EOR, machine learning and well spacing studies, which are fully reviewed in the file.

On our assessment, one third of the papers support material improvements in well-productivity.  c98% are data-driven, including c39% using advanced computational modelling and another c20% using data to optimise operations.

The Permian hosted the most research, pulling further ahead of other basins. You may be surprised by the identities of the companies publishing the most technical papers in shale.

The Ascent of Shale

This model contains our live, basin-by-basin shale forecasts. We model each of the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford, as a function of the rig count, drilling productivity, completion rate, well productivity and type curves. Thus, we derive production and financial expectations.

Our numbers hinge on the productivity gains described in our thematic research. Shale productivity trebled from 2012-2018. We think it can effectively double again by 2025. This would unleash 21Mbpd of US liquids production by 2025, within cash flow at a flat $50/bbl Brent input.

Lula: how much growth left?

This data-file tracks the Lula oilfield, well-by-well, FPSO-by-FPSO, aggregating data from over 100 production reports, which are published monthly by Brazil’s national hydrocarbon regulator.

Hence we have formulated “production forecasts” for each FPSO, and for the entire field; in 2H19 and in 1H20. This matters for oil markets; and for pre-salt producers, such as Petrobas, Shell and Galp.

Our outlook is for slowing growth, due to rising water- and gas-cuts, which are reviewed well-by-well. One FPSO is now definitively constrained by gas-handling capacity. Another is off-plateau due to maturity. Six Lula FPSOs are now negotiating water-cuts, as shown in the data-file.

1H19 production was lower than expected, at just 72% of total installed FPSO capacity. Our notes attribute the drivers, and contextualise the growth ahead.

Energy Economics of e-Scooters

This data-file contains all our data on the energy economics of e-scooters, a transformational technology for urban mobility, where demand has exploded in 2018 and 2019. And for good reason. The data-file includes:

  • Our projections of the oil demand destroyed by scooters
  • Our projections of the electricity demand created by scooters
  • Number of US travel-trips using shared bikes and scooters from 2010-18
  • Scooter costs versus car and taxi costs per mile
  • Average ranges and battery sizes of incumbent scooter models
  • Relative energy economics of scooters versus gasoline cars and EVs
  • Relative time taken to charge scooters versus EVs using solar panels
  • The proportion of scooter trips that replace gasoline car trips in eight cities
  • Profiles of the top 4 e-scooter companies
  • A timeline of shared mobility from 1965 to 2018.

The download will also enable you to adjust the input assumptions, to test different scenarios.

Alternative truck fuels: how economic?

This data-file compares different trucking fuels — diesel, CNG, LNG, LPG and Hydrogen — across 35 variables. Most important are the economics, which are fully modelled.

Natural Gas can be close to competitive. On an energy-equivalent basis, $3/mcf gas is 4x more economical than $3/gal diesel. However, the advantages are offset by higher vehicle costs, operational costs and logistical costs. Overall, CNG ends up 10% more expensive, and LNG ends up 30% more expensive versus diesel-trucking. Mild environmental positives of gas are also offset by mild operational challenges.

Hydrogen still screens as an expensive alternative. We estimate vehicle costs are 2x higher than diesel trucks, while $15/kg hydrogen is 4x more expensive than diesel as a fuel.

Aerial Vehicles Re-Shape Transportation Costs?

This model calculates the costs per passenger-kilometer for transportation, based on mileage, load factors, fuel prices (oil and electricity), fuel-economy, vehicle costs and maintenance costs.

Ground level vehicles are assessed using data from around the industry, on gasoline, electric, owned and taxi vehicles.

Aerial vehicles could compete with taxis as early as 2025. By the 2030s, their costs can be 60% below the level of car ownership.

This model shows all of our input assumptions and calculations.

Aerial Vehicles: Which Ones Fly?

We have compiled a database of over 100 companies, which have already flown c40 aerial vehicles (aka “flying cars”) and the number should rise to c60 by 2021.

Look through the data and you will likely share our conclusion that aerial vehicles will gain credibility in the 2020s, the way electric vehicles did in the 2010s.

Our database categorizes the top vehicle concepts by type, company, year-founded, company-size, company-geography, backers, fuel-type, speed, range, take-off weight, payload, year of first prototype, target commercial delivery date, fuel economy and required battery weights.

Some vehicle concepts are extremely impressive and credible; others may find it more challenging to meet the ranges promised at current battery densities…

The Top 25 Companies in Plastics Pyrolysis?

This data-file assesses the outlook for 25 plastic pyrolysis companies, operating  (or constructing) 100 plants around the world, which use chemical processes to turn waste plastics back into oil.

Our data-file includes the number of plants, locations, start-up years, input-types and capacities for each plant. We also include our own notes, our assessment’s of each company’s technology.

The data-file has been updated in 1Q20, revising our rankings, and adsding an assessment of 2019’s pace of newsflow. It is extremely encouraging to see Super-Majors entering the fray (Shell, TOTAL, BP), as well as strong progress from the leading companies.

The Top Technologies in Energy

What are the top technologies to transform the global energy industry and the world? This data-file summarises where we have conducted differentiated analysis, across c65 technologies (and counting).

For each technology, we summarise the opportunity in two-lines. Then we score its economic impact, its technical maturity (TRL), and the depth of our work to-date. The output is a ranking of the top technologies, by category; and a “cost curve” for the total costs to decarbonise global energy.

Download this data-file and you will also receive updates for a year, as we add more technologies; and we will also be happy to dig into any technologies you would like to see added to the list.