Energy efficiency: a riddle, in a mystery, in an enigma?

Projections of future global energy demand depend on energy efficiency gains, which are hoped to step up from <1% per year since 1970, to above 3% per year to 2050. But there is a problem. Energy efficiency is vague. And hard to measure. This 17-page explores three different definitions. We are worried that global energy demand will surprise to the upside as efficiency gains disappoint optimistic forecasts.

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