Why the Thunder Said?

This 8-page report outlines the ‘four goals’ of Thunder Said Energy; and how we hope we can help your process…

LNG Process Technologies — an Overview

This file will give a helpful overview of the different process technologies, which are used in LNG liquefaction: APCI, APX (Exxon), Optimised Cascade (Conoco), Fluid Cascade (Equinor), DMR, SMR, PRICO (Golar) and MMLS (Shell, small-scale). For each one, we summarise how it works, advantages and disadvantages, plus typical train sizes, energy efficiencies, examples and involved-companies. We also touch on applicability for FLNG and small-scale LNG.

Floating LNG: do the costs work?

A 2.5MTpa Floating LNG vessel using the Golar/PRICO process would cost c$700/tpa, or $1.1/mcfe. A $2.5/mcf liquefaction-spread is therefore needed for a 10% return. The key economic risk is ‘uptime’. This file contains our workings; including cost-estimates across 17-categories, such as compressors, heat-exchangers, vessel-costs, et al. Costs are compared for smaller-scale and onshore plants in later tabs.

Production Losses at a Giant Offshore Oilfield

This data-file breaks down the production losses at a giant offshore oilfield, across five categories and ten sub-categories. They are addressable with digital oilfield technologies, as shown by our notes. Advanced algorithms such as BP’s Apex solution, are capable of reducing the losses — particularly in the largest categories. Halving them could increase output by c55kbpd.

Where is oil industry R&D focused?

Shale comprises c5% of global supply and c20% of global R&D; while offshore comprises c30% of global supply, but <10% of global R&D, according to our estimates. This simple file aims to break down the oil and gas industry’s R&D activities, by category and sub-category, based on the >1,000 patents and >300 SPE papers we have categorized so far.

Oil Major Cash Flow and Operating Leverage

This data-file tabulates the approximate cash flow, capex and ‘pre-tax costs’ of Oil Majors, in order to illustrate the operational leverage within the group. Every $1 of free cash flow comes after $3 of cost. Hence small reductions in the cost base, through technology, deliver 3x larger uplifts to free cash flow. This is why we are screening Oil companies’ technology-capabilities.

Where will Permian production peak?

This model shows how the Permian’s ultimate production plateau will be determined by the rig count, drilling efficiency, well productivity and decline rates. It includes a 10Mbpd scenario where productivity flatlines from here; and our 20Mbpd scenario where productivity continues rising at an 11% CAGR. Economic assumptions are also included to visualise capex and FCF, under different commodity scenarios.

The 2050 Energy Mix. A Simple Model.

This model breaks down 2050’s global energy market, based on a dozen core input assumptions. You can ‘flex’ these assumptions, to see how it will affect future oil, coal and gas demand, as well as global carbon emissions. We are positive on renewables, but fossil fuels retain a central role, particularly natural gas, which could ‘treble’ in our base case.

SPE Papers about Conventional vs Unconventional Reservoirs

This data-file estimates the number of SPE papers that have been published about conventional and unconventional reservoir engineering in the SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering Technical journal, each year since 2007. 2018 was the first year where unconventionals papers eclipsed conventional.

The Top Technologies in Energy

What are the top technologies to transform the global energy industry and the world? This data-file summarises where we have conducted differentiated analysis, across 35 technologies (and counting).

For each technology, we summarise the opportunity. Then we score its economic impact, its technical maturity (TRL), and the depth of our work to-date. The output is a ranking of the top technologies, by category.

Download this data-file and you will also receive updates for a year, as we add more technologies; and we will also be happy to dig into any technologies you would like to see added to the list.