CarbonCure injects CO2 into concrete during the mixing process, where it mineralizes to form CaCO3. The resultant product is up to 20% stronger and can most likely save 4-6% of the CO2 intensity of finished concrete.
Total CO2 abatement has recently been running at 60kTpa, across 300 customers, with a long-term aspiration abate as much as 500MTpa potentially.
The technology scores OK on the TSE patent framework, although some question-marks are explored in the data-file, especially around the specific solutions discussed in the patents.
This data-file summarizes the costs of capturing CO2 from different sources, so that it can be converted into materials, electro-fuels or sequestered.
Specifically, we have estimated the full-cycle costs (in $/ton), ultimate potential (in MTpa) and other technical considerations, linking to our other models and data-files.
The lowest-cost optionsare to access pure CO2 streams that are simply being vented at present, such as from the ethanol or LNG industries, but the ultimate running-room from this opportunity set is <200MTpa.
Blue hydrogen, steel and cement place next on the cost curve and could each have GTpa scale. Power stations place next, at $60-100/ton.
DAC is conceptually attractive, as the only carbon negative technology, but if all CO2 molecules in the atmosphere are fungible, it is not clear why you would pursue DAC until options lower down the cost curve had been exhausted.
Carbon monoxideis an important chemical input for metals, materials and fuels. Could it be produced by capturing CO2 from the atmosphere or using the amine process, then electrolysing the CO2 into CO and oxygen?
This data-file models the economics of CO2 electrolysis, including recent advances from leading industrial gas companies, and by analogy to hydrogen electrolysis.
10% IRRs can be achieved at $800/ton carbon monoxide pricing, which can be competitive with conventional syngas production, and far more economic than small-scale distribution of CO containers.
The data-filecontains input assumptions, detailed notes from half-a-dozen recent technical papers, and short summary of different companies’ initiatives, including Haldor Topsoe, Siemens, Covestro, Methanex and Carbon Recycling.
Nature-based solutions are among the most effectiveways to abate CO2. Forest offsets will cost $2-50/ton, decarboning liquid fuels for <$0.5/gallon and natural gas for <$1/mcf (chart below).
The data-file tabulates hundreds of data-points from technical papers and industry reports on different tree and grass types. It covers their growing conditions, survival rates, lifespans, rates of CO2 absorption (per tree and per acre) and their water requirements (examples below).
This data-file tabulates the costs of carbon offsets being offered to consumers and commercial customers by c30 companies. Prices are surprisingly low, ranging from $4-40/ton of CO2.
Which projects are most economical? Costs are lowest at forestry projects, particularly at companies where you pay “per tree” rather than “per ton” of CO2. They are also lower at non-profits (which also means contributions are tax-deductible). Finally, they are lowest at companies undertaking projects directly, rather than as “middlemen” (charts below).
Are they CO2 offsets real? The also file contains detailed notes on each company, to assess their credentials. Moreover, it tabulates 1,600 carbon offset projects which are assured by agencies such as the ‘Verified Carbon Standard’, Gold Standard and Green-E, for a broader perspective.
This database tabulates almost 300 venture investmentsmade by 9 of the leading Oil Majors, as the energy industry advances and transitions.
The largest portionof activity is now aimed at incubating New Energy technologies (c50% of the investments), as might be expected. Conversely, when we first created the data-file, in early-2019, the lion’s share of historical investments were in upstream technologies (c40% of the total). The investments are also highly digital (c40% of the total).
Four Oil Majors are incubating capabilitiesin new energies, as the energy system evolves. We are impressed by the opportunities they have accessed. Venturing is likely the right model to create most value in this fast-evolving space.
The full databaseshows which topic areas are most actively targeted by the Majors’ venturing, broken down across 25 sub-categories, including by company. We also chart which companies have gained stakes in the most interesting start-ups.
This data-file compares different trucking fuels— diesel, CNG, LNG, LPG and Hydrogen — across 35 variables. Most important are the economics, which are fully modelled, in the 2020s in the US, in the 2020s in Europe and incorporating deflation in the 2040s.
Hydrogen still screens as an expensive alternative. We estimate full cycle freight costs will be c30% higher for hydrogen vehicles than diesels in Europe, and as much as 2x higher in the US. The data-file contains a breakdown of hydrogen truck concepts and their operating parameters.
Natural Gas can be close to competitive. On an energy-equivalent basis, $3/mcf gas is 4x more economical than $3/gal diesel. However, the advantages are offset by higher vehicle costs, operational costs and logistical costs. Mild environmental positives of gas are also offset by mild operational challenges.
Costs of disposing of CO2are extremely variable and project-dependent, ranging from $5-50/ton, with a base case of $22.5/ton. This is the disposal price needed to earn a 10% post-tax IRR, transporting, injecting and monitoring CO2 in the sub-surface.
This model captures the economics and costs of CO2 sequestration in geological formations, as a function of a dozen input variables: such as CO2 prices, costs, transportation distances and reservoir properties.
Our capex and opex estimatesare broken down, line-by-line across c30 different line-items, using granular technical disclosures from the EPA’s GEOCAT database. Our modelled costs are also compared with detailed estimates for offshore disposal beneath the UK North Sea, based on recent technical papers.
Please download the data-file to stress tests the economics.
This data-file models the costs and CO2 intensities of four different heating solutions: oil-fired furnaces, gas boilers, electric heaters and electrically-powered heat pumps.
Gas-fired boilers are most justified in gaining future market share, based on our cost data, even after paying $50/ton for CO2 offsets, to decarbonize the gas. Heat pumps are most efficient.
To compare and contrast the different solutions, you can vary oil prices, gas prices and power prices in the data-file.
Costs and efficienciesof the boilers and heat pumps are based on the specifications of products available online in 2020, which are also tabulated in the data-file.
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