Fiber Optic Cables: Patents and Leading Companies?

This data-file screens for the technology leaders in fiber-optic cables, which are crucial for the digitization of industries and the world’s structural shift towards remote-working.

The file starts by tracking 37,000 patents filed into fiber optic cabling, where the pace of research has risen at a 14% CAGR since 2009, with 75% of 2019’s patents filed in China and 18% in the US.

The 2019 data are shown more granularly in the ‘2019’ tab, aggregating descriptions of 4,000 patents and the companies behind them.

From these patents, we identify and evaluate the largest listed companies in fiber-optics, including a helpful profile of each company, their revenues, and the percent of their revenues  from fiber-optic cables.

COVID-19 Impacts on Global Oil Demand?

The impacts of COVID-19 on global oil demand are extremely uncertain. However, this model aims to help you bound the uncertainties, disaggregating 2020 oil demand in the developed and the developing world, as a function of some simplifying assumptions: GDP declines, flight cancellations, travel reductions and the pace of the crisis’s resolution.

Please note this model has been superceded by our more granular estimates, here. The model may still be useful  to stress test influences on quarterly oil demand due to different COVID-related variables.

COVID-19 Impacts on US Gasoline Demand?

US gasoline is the largest component of global oil demand, at c9Mbpd, or c9% of the global market. Hence we have modelled how it could be impacted by COVID-19, looking line by line, across a granular, c100-line breakdown.

A -2Mbpd contraction is possible in 2Q20, if 34% of all US workplaces close temporarily and 50% of non-essential travel is cancelled. This is an extreme scenario, commensurate with a c5pp slowdown in US GDP,  comparable to the “Great Recession” of 2008-09 in economic terms, but with 8x deeper demand destruction for gasoline.

Such steep declines are not inconceivable, from a modelling perspective. They could underpin a c10Mbpd YoY collapse in global oil demand.

How quickly could demand rebound? Very minimal long-term impacts persist from 2022 onwards, with demand destruction of just 60kbpd in 2023-24. We can even construct scenarios where US gasoline demand surprises to the upside, rising +0.5Mbpd, if COVID is brought under control. So when the oil market does turn, it may turn very quickly.

To run your own scenarios, please download the model.

Copyright: Thunder Said Energy, 2022.