Ground source heat pumps: the economics?

This data-file models the economics, costs, energy savings and potential CO2 savings of a ground source heat pump (GHP), compared to traditional home heating and cooling options.

A GHP approximately doubles the efficiency of conventional heating and cooling, through heat-exchange with the shallow earth, 30ft below the surface, which tends to remain at 10-15°C temperatures year-round.

The model can be stress-tested, flexing annual heating/cooling demands, coefficients of performance, as well as oil, gas, power and CO2 prices. Also included are a granular cost build-up for CHPs and our notes.

Leading Companies Commercialising Heat Pumps?

Heat pumps can halve the CO2 intensity of residential heating while also lowering costs by c10-35% in some cases (model here).

Hence this data-file aims to quantify the leading companies commercialising heat pumps, tracking 70,000 patents since 2000, focusing in upon 4,000 Western-centric patents from 2017-19. The space is competitive, with 20 leaders vying for market share.

Our screen focuses in upon the technology leaders with the most concentrated exposure to the theme. We have profiled 7 leading public companies and 4 private companies, including two venture stage firms developing particularly exciting concepts.

Note this screen is mostly focused on air/air heat pumps, aka ‘air conditioners’. For a more detailed review of air/water and ground-source heat pump providers, see this data-file.

Financial and CO2 Costs of Heaters, Boilers and Heat Pumps

This data-file models the costs and CO2 intensities of four different heating solutions: oil-fired furnaces, gas boilers, electric heaters and electrically-powered heat pumps.

Gas-fired boilers are most justified in gaining future market share, based on our cost data, even after paying $50/ton for CO2 offsets, to decarbonize the gas. Heat pumps are most efficient.

To compare and contrast the different solutions, you can vary oil prices, gas prices and power prices in the data-file.

Costs and efficiencies of the boilers and heat pumps are based on the specifications of products available online in 2020, which are also tabulated in the data-file.

Copyright: Thunder Said Energy, 2022.