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“It provokes the desire, but it takes away the performance.” That is the porter’s view of alcohol in Act II Scene III of Macbeth. It is also our view of 2022’s impact on the energy transition. Our resultant outlook is captured in six concise pages, published in the Walter Scott Journal in Summer-2022.
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This video covers our top five reflections after 3.5 years, running a research firm focused on energy transition. The greatest value is found in low-cost decarbonization technologies, resource bottlenecks and hidden nuances and bottom-up opportunities.
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Chinese coal provides 15% of the world’s energy, equivalent to 4 Saudi Arabia's worth of oil. Global energy markets may become 10% under-supplied if this output plateaus per our ‘net zero’ scenario. Alternatively, might China ramp its coal, especially as Europe bids harder for renewables and LNG post-Russia? This note presents our ‘top ten’ charts.
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Who will ‘win’ the intensifying competition for finite lithium ion batteries, in a world that is hindered by a shortages of lithium, graphite, nickel and cobalt in 2022-25? Today’s note argues EVs should outcompete grid-scale storage by a factor of 2-4x.
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Energy shortages are gripping the world in 2022. The 1970s are one analogy. But the 14th century was truly medieval. Today’s note reviews its top ten features. This is not a romantic portrayal of pre-industrial civilization, some simpler time “before fossil fuels”. It is a horror show of deficiencies. Avoiding energy shortages should be a core ESG goal.
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Helion is developing a linear fusion reactor, which has entirely re-thought the technology (like the 'Tesla of nuclear fusion'). It could have costs of 1-6c/kWh, be deployed at 50-200MWe modular scale and overcome many challenges of tokamaks. Progress so far includes 100MºC and a $2.2bn fund-raise, the largest of any private fusion company to-date. This note sets out its 'top ten' features.
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The second world war was decided by oil. Each country's war-time strategy was dictated by its availability, quality and attempts to secure more of it, including by rationing non-critical uses of it. Ultimately, halting the oil meant halting the war. Today's short note outlines out top ten conclusions from reviewing the history.
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This 13-page note presents 10 hypotheses on Russia's horrific conflict. Energy supplies will very likely get disrupted, as Putin no longer needs to break the will of Ukraine, but also the West. Results include energy rationing and economic pain. Climate goals get shelved in this war-time scramble. Pragmatism, nuclear and LNG emerge from the ashes. 
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This gloomy video explores growing fears that the energy transition could 'fall apart' in the mid-late 2020s, due to energy shortages and geopolitical discord. Constructive solutions will include debottlenecking resource-bottlenecks, efficiency technologies and natural gas pragmatism.
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Sitka spruce is a fast-growing conifer, which now dominates UK forestry, and sequesters net CO2 up to 2x faster than mixed broadleaves. It can absorb 6-10 tons of CO2 per acre per year, at Yield Classes 16-30+, on 40 year rotations. This short note lays out our top ten conclusions, including benefits, drawbacks and implications.
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Coal and gas both provide c25% of all primary global energy. But gas's CO2 intensity is 50-60% less than coal's. This short note explains the different carbon intensities from first principles, including bond enthalpies, production processes and efficiency factors.
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"If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, first you must invent the universe". This captures the challenge of decarbonizing complex global supply chains. This note argues for each company in a supply chain to drive its own Scope 1&2 CO2 emissions towards zero on a net basis. Resulting products can be described as "clear", "transparent" or "translucent".
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Energy transition is like a game of chess: impossible to get right, unless you are looking at the entire board. Rigid coverage models do not work. This video explores the emergence of energy strategist roles at firms that care about energy transition, and how to become a 'grand master' in 2022.
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Decision-makers are possibly over-indexing their attention on game-changing new technologies, at the expense of over-looking pre-existing ones. Hence the purpose of this short note will be to re-cap our 'top ten' most overlooked, established technologies that can cost-effectively help the world reach net zero.
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This short note is a progress update, including videos and drone footage, on our aspirations to undertake a series of reforestation projects in Estonia. It covers considerations for selecting land; and our first small investment to plant spruce in 2022.
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For the first time, in November-2021, a moderate-sized company has gone public with a mandate to generate CPI + 5% returns, by investing in forestry and nature-based afforestation projects. This short article summarizes the key points from the 216-page prospectus.
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Neodymium is a crucial Rare Earth metal, used in permanent magnets for the ramp-up of wind turbines and electric vehicles. The market is small, but fast-growing. This could create opportunities, as bottlenecks and cost-inflation need to be kept in check. Hence this short note outlines our 'top ten facts'.
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This note evaluates how sustained gas shortages could re-shape power markets (chart above). Nuclear is the greatest beneficiary, as its cost premium narrows. The balance also includes more renewables, batteries and power-electronics; and less gas, until gas prices normalized. Self-defeatingly, we would also expect less short-term decarbonization via coal-to-gas switching.
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After six months living in Tallinn, Estonia, the history of the Baltic States has been swirling around in my mind. Especially a list of old jokes, told during Soviet times, about persistent industrial shortages, propaganda, the suppression of dissent and the ridiculousness of planned economies. This video explores whether there is any overlap with energy transition policies.
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SF6 is an unparalleled dielectric material, used to quench electric arcs in medium- and high-voltage switchgear. There is only one problem. It is the most potent GHG in the world. Therefore, it may be helpful to find replacements for SF6, amidst the ascent of renewables and electrification. This note discusses resultant opportunities in capital goods and some minor cost inflation consequences.
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UK power price volatility has exploded in 2021. The average daily range has risen 4x from 2019-20, to 35c/kWh in 3Q21. At this level, grid-scale batteries are strongly ‘in the money’. So will the high volatility persist? This is the question in today's 6-page note.
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Political divisions may explain some recent mysteries around the energy transition, and be larger than we had previously imagined. This note explores lobbying data and concludes there is more need for objective and apolitical analysis.
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Feeding the world explains 20% of global CO2e emissions, across 12bn acres of land, whose reforestation could theoretically decarbonize the entire planet. Kilo for kilo, many meat products have 1-10x more embedded CO2 emissions than fossil fuels. This short article is to present our top ten conclusions.
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Phasing out gas is likely to be a policy choice made by some cities or States, as part of the energy transition. The purpose of this short note is simply to examine possible consequences. Which could be stark.
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This 12-page note sets out an early-stage ambition for Thunder Said Energy to reforest former farmland in Estonia, producing high-quality CO2 credits in a biodiverse forest. The primary purpose would be to stress-test nature-based carbon removals in our roadmap to net zero, and understand the bottlenecks.
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This short video is a thinly-veiled critique of carbon markets. To do this, we use an analogy from the banking sector, followed by some observations on carbon prices and carbon offsets.
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A single Bitcoin transaction currently uses c1,000kWh of electricity, 1 million times more than a traditional payment. Hence this note aims to explain how blockchain works, why it has been so energy intensive in the past, and how the energy multiplier could be reduced to maybe 100 - 1,000x.
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Moore’s law entails that computing performance doubles every 18-months. Which has held true since 1965. This exponential progress has been driven by three positive feedback loops. Can these same feedback loops unlock a similar trajectory for new energies costs? We find mixed evidence.
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This video contains my top five conclusions from some eye-opening real world experiences. Specifically, for the better part of the past six months, my wife and I have been working 'nomadically'. I made it to 44 US States in total. This has changed my views on transition costs, mobility and nature.
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CO2 prices and CO2 abatement costs are very different numbers. The CO2 prices are incurred by remaining emitters. But the abatement costs depend on how much CO2 is reduced. These abatement costs can actually be astronomical if CO2 does not fall much. We argue CO2 prices are only effective if nature-based offsets are incorporated.
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We have reviewed 14 mass extinctions over the past 500M years. This short note contains our top five solutions. Current policies may be short-sighted around systemic risks. Improved technologies and nature-based solutions fare better.
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We are starting a new strand of research, evaluating the specific energy technologies of specific early-stage companies, to help drive the energy transition. This video lays out our rationale, and our methodology, which draws on two years of patent learnings.
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Global CO2 from wildfires could be c25% as large as anthropogenic CO2, while US wildfires reached an all-time record in 2020. Hence this note reconsiders nature-based solutions. Hands-off conservation may do more harm than good. Sustainable forestry, carbon-negative materials, biochar and biomass energy also look more favorable.
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Industrial facilities that can shift electricity demand to coincide with cheap renewables can effectively start printing money as renewables get over-built. Oil and gas assets are generally less able to demand-shift than other industries. But this note outlines the best opportunities, capable of uplifting cash margins by 3-10%.
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Current carbon accounting frameworks are not entirely helpful: simplistic rules can lack comparability, completeness, generality, and can be gamed. We prefer granular carbon accounting at the process- or asset-level, which can be compared to competitors and counterfactuals.
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Carbon-negative construction materials derived from wood could be used to deflate the levellized costs of a wind turbine by 2.5 - 10%, while sequestering around 175 tons of CO2-equivalents per turbine. The opportunity is being progressed by Modvion and Vestas, as discussed in this short note below.
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An acre of land can absorb 40-800 tons of CO2 over the course of a century. Today's note ranks different options for CO2 sequestration over 100-year timeframes. Active management techniques and blue carbon eco-systems are most effective.
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Renewable Energy Certificates are legal contracts where all parties agree to pretend that gas and coal electrons are wind and solar electrons and vice versa. This note discussed the merits, drawbacks, and some strange implications for energy analysts. Our view is that nature-based carbon credits may come to be seen as 'more valid'.
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The laws of thermodynamics are often framed in such arcane terms that they are overlooked. This note outlines these three fundamental laws of physics and why they matter for energy transition. Renewables and efficiency gains are prioritized, while hydrogen scores poorly.
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“As a no till farmer, I’m doing my part [on climate change... if the carbon market grows] farmers will change their practices”. These were the comments of an Iowa farmer that has now commercialized $330,000 of carbon credits from conservation agriculture. The case study shows how the carbon market is causing CO2-farming to expand and advance.
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This data-file aggregates the average annual volatility of solar (and wind) resources across ten locations, mainly cities, in the United States. Annual volatility of incoming solar energy reaching ground level tends to vary by +/- 6% per year, is 96% correlated across different locations within that city, and 50-70% correlated with other cities in the same region.
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Can large-scale power transmission smooth renewables' volatility? To answer this question, this horrible 18MB data-file aggregates 20-years of hour-by-hour solar insolation arriving at four cities in the US. The volatility in year-by-year can be halved by a single inter-connector.
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Opex for a wind power project is typically $40/kW-year, or around 1-2c/kWh. Around $25/kW is maintenance, suggesting the wind maintenance market is now worth >$20bn per year. The best route to lower cost is up-scaling turbines and wind assets.
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This data-file tabulates annual gas price data across twenty countries. In 2016-19, the global average price was $4/mcf, within an inter-quartile range of $2-6/mcf. Upside volatility has exploded since 2021. Yet half-a-dozen countries retain gas prices well below $2.5/mcf.
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Every 30-years on average, a giant volcano erupts, ejecting >10km3 of debris, including aerosols that dim the sun and temporarily cool the planet by 0.5-1C. After Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, US solar insolation fell by 20% in 1992. What implications for global energy security and energy transition?
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We have aggregated production data from the largest gas fied in the world: Qatar's North Field, aka Iran's South Pars field, with 1,260 TCF reserves. Output is running at 43bcfd in 2022, more than doubling in the past decade, which is possibly impacting future well productivity.
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What is the cost of CO2 removal by planting trees? This calculator assesses different types of trees, types of planting, survival, permanence and discounting. A good ballpark range is $15-30/ton. Verified CO2 removals are likely higher cost but higher quality offsets.
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The largest hydrocarbon mega-projects are still 10-25x larger than the world's largest solar and offshore wind projects. Risks are different in each category. But on a risked basis, global energy supplies may come in c2% lower than base case forecasts
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This data-file aims to assess whether spiking food and energy prices lead to political changes. There is a >70% chance of regime change at the next election, after food and energy prices have spiked. Links with outright revolutions are looser.
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This data-file is a simple demand outlook for silver in the energy transition. Demand could rise 2.5x from 30kTpa to 85kTpa in 2050, driven by solar and electrification. Although in practice, we think a price spike will displace silver with copper.
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Trackers re-position solar panels to face the sun, as it arcs across the sky, day-by-day, season-by-season, due to the Earth's 23.5-degree tilt. Solar tracker efficiency improvements typically range from 20-40%. Capex cost increases are c20%. Thus 40-90% of utility solar now uses trackers.
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This data-file is an Excel "visualizer" for some of the key headline metrics in global energy: such as total global energy use, electricity generation by source and growing renewables penetration; broken down country-by-country, and showing how these metrics have changed over time.
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This data-file quantifies air conditioning energy demand. In the US each 100 variation in CDDs adds 26 TWH of electricity (0.6%) demand and 200bcf of gas (0.6%). Air conditioning already consumes 7% of all global electricity and could treble by 2050.
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Electrical conductivity of energy transition materials is tabulated in this data-file. 'The action' takes place in the range of 10^-8 to 10^-3 Ohm-meters, including silver in solar cells, copper in renewables and EVs, aluminium transmission lines, batteries, and solar semi-conductors.
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Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System components (FACTS) include Static Synchronous Compensators (STATCOMs) and Static VAR Compensators (SVCs). A typical wind project has 0.5 - 1.0 kVAR of FACTS per 1.0 kW of real power capacity. Each kVAR of SVCs and STATCOMs costs $100/kVAR and $150/kVAR respectively.
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World food production runs at 10 bn tons per year, equivalent to 25,000 TWH of primary energy, or 7,500 calories per person per day. Of this total, 30% is fed to animals, 30% is wasted, 5% is converted to biofuels and 2% is used in consumer products. Humans eat the remaining 2,500 calories per person per day.
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Europe has 15 TCM of technically recoverable shale gas resources. This data-file aims to provide a helpful overview, as we expect exploration to re-accelerate. Ukraine has the best shale in Europe, which may even be a motivation for Russian aggression. Other countries with good potential, held back only by sentiment are Romania, Germany, UK, Bulgaria and Spain.
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What are the costs of inter-connecting a utility-scale wind or solar project into the power grid? This data-file assesses twenty case studies in North America. Good baselines are to expect $100-300/kW of grid inter-connection costs, or $3-10/kW-km, over a 10-70 km typical distance of line adds or upgrades.
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This data-file aggregates technical parameters of ultra high-voltage power lines. The average one transmits 6.5GW, at 800-1,000kV and 4,000 Amps, over a distance of 1,500 km. Every 500 meters, there is a 70m tall tower. The power lines have total mass of 200 tons/km, 2-3% losses per 1,000km and c$3M/mile costs.
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This data-file tracks curtailment of wind and solar assets in California. c25% of California's total grid demand in 2021 was met by wind and solar. On average, 0.4% of the wind and 4% of the gross solar generation were curtailed throughout the year. But the data are highly variable.
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Hydrogen is an indirect GWP, as it breaks down in the atmosphere over 1-2 years, increasing the lifespan of other GHGs, such as methane. So what is hydrogen GWP versus methane? 1 ton of atmospheric H2 most likely causes 11x more warming than 1 ton of CO2 (the number for methane is 34x). Eight conclusions follow.
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This data-file evaluates the holdings of 20 socially responsible ETFs with $150bn of assets. But is this "socially responsible" or simply underweight energy (which comprises 1.2% of these funds versus 4.5% in the MSCI ACWI). More constructively, the file also evaluates a handful of "clean energy" ETFs.
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Ionic radius measures the width of ions, in pico-meters (one billionth of a millimeter, one trillionth of a meter), or in angstroms (100 pico-meters). This short note contains our top conclusions on ionic radius, as we find ourselves doing more inorganic chemistry around metals in the energy transition.
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This data-file quantifies global wood production, country-by-country, back to 1960, across energy, pulp and longer-lasting materials. Overall, wood energy has declined from 11% of the world's primary energy mix in 1960 to c4% today, but it remains stubbornly high in less-developed countries, amplifying deforestation.
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This data-base tabulates the details of over 300 offtake contracts across the LNG industry. Back in the year 2000, the LNG market was just 100MTpa, c90% of the market was traded on long-term contractions with >10-years' duration. By 2021, over 40% of the market is traded on a "spot" or portfolio basis.
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Full cycle development times tend to average c4-years for large solar projects, 6-years for large offshore wind, 7-years for new pipelines, 7-years for new oil and gas projects, 9-years for new LNG plants and 13-years for new nuclear plants. This data-file reviews 35 case studies.
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This data-base aggregates data from the Natural Resources Institute of Finland, covering how Finnish forestry produces 75 million m3 of wood per year, while also having accumulated 1bn tons of additional biomass over the past century, while creating €20bn pa of value and employing 60,000 people.
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This large data-file tracks activity, well-by-well, across c11,000 wells in the Pennsylvania Marcellus, month-by-month, from 2015-2021. First tier operators stand out, especially as the basin has consolidated. They achieve higher IP rates and have been able to do more with less.
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This data-file breaks down global oil demand, country-by-country, product-by-product, month-by-month, across 2017-2021. Global oil demand fell -22Mbpd at trough in April-2020 during the COVID crisis, and -9Mbpd for 2020 in total. Jet fuel, gasoline and distillates are most impacted. OECD demand is still to recover.
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This data-file looks through 17 major nuclear plants in Japan with 45GW of operable capacity, covering the key parameters and re-start news on each facility. Realistically, there is near-term capacity to generate 130TWH more nuclear power in Japan and free up 20MTpa of LNG.
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Oil consuming countries are encouraged to have emergency plans to save 7-10% of their demand in a crisis. This data-file outlines how. c10Mbpd could be saved globally. But it requires extreme measures. Largest are odd-even rationing, ride-sharing, free public transit and lower highway speed limits.
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Russia's total total exports ran at $425bn in 2019, comprising $225bn of oil, $55bn of gas, $50bn of metals, $20bn of coal, $30bn basic materials and $25bn of ag products. 55% of the total goes to Europe. This data-file gives a breakdown for 100 products across 200 countries, to allow for stress-testing.
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This data-file assesses 25 countries and regions' energy consumption, as those countries developed over the past 50-years. Early industrialization is most energy intensive, rising 1:1 with GDP growth. In developed countries, energy use plateaus at c25MWH pp pa and decarbonization priorities step up sharply.
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Europe comprises 7% of the world's population, and 17% of its energy use. The purpose of this data-file is to disaggregate energy use across 25 industries, six energy types and 28 countries. This suggests which industries might be least painful to scale back amidst energy shortages.
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The EU taxonomy is a set of guidelines that label some investments as 'green'. This includes gas power with a CO2 intensity below 270g/kWh. Most conventional gas projects will not meet this hurdle, but CHPs and 20-30% blends of lower-carbon gas could accelerate.
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The purpose of this data-file is to tabulate our best estimates for the CO2 associated with different activities. The average US person emits about 2.2kg of CO2e per hour. Food and transport choices have a large impact. Among the lowest carbon is reading at home on a tablet.
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Global average EROEI is around 30x. Sources with EROEI above average are hydro, nuclear, natural gas and coal. Sources with middling EROEIs of 10-20x are solar, wind and LNG. Sources with weaker EROEIs are oil products, green hydrogen and some biofuels.
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This data-file reviews a dozen energy crisis, caused by shortages of coal, oil, gas or electricity, from twentieth century history. Especially the 1973-74 oil shock. The average crisis co-occurs with a 2.3x rise in the commodity price, energy rationing, inflation and economic deterioration.
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This data-file reviews 25 examples of forestation projects in the United Kingdom, which have followed the UK Woodland Carbon Code. We conclude that the projects are high-quality and may have interesting co-benefits. Key data-points are in the file.
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This data-file profiles five rocket fuels, based on data from 100 rockets: kerosene, hydrogen, solid fuels, nitrogen tetroxides and an exciting new-comer, LNG. Notably, SpaceX and Blue Origin are tilting away from hydrogen/kerosene and towards LNG.
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