Oklo: fast reactor technology?
…Numbers can be stress-tested in our nuclear cost model. In April-2024, Diamondback Energy also agreed a 20-year PPA to procure 50MW of emission-free electricity for its operations in the Permian…
Commodity price volatility: energy, metals and ags?
…then the data imply that mean average prices will tend to run 1.1 – 1.5x above median expectations. The final two tabs of the data-file model the lognormal volatility of…
Energy trading: value in volatility?
…major commodities, over the past 50-years. More volatile commodities generally have higher mean average prices, as shown on pages 4-5. In order to model the impacts of rising volatility upon…
Sugar production: the economics?
The costs of sugar production are estimated at $260/ton for a 10% IRR at a world-scale sugar refinery, in a major sugar-producing region. Higher returns are achievable at recent world…
Gas power generation across five-minute intervals?
…gas turbine ran at 26% utilization, which is lower than the base case in our gas generation economic model. However the average turbine also ran 90% of its nameplate capacity…
Cemvita Factory: microbial breakthroughs?
…the model. We were not entirely able to de-risk Cemvita’s aspirations for sub-$1/kg gold hydrogen, based on our Cemvita Factory technology review, which evaluated the disclosures in its patents. There…
Oil demand: making millions?
…2023. Yet the lowest-cost and most practical roadmap to net zero would see oil use plateau around 105Mbpd in the mid-2020s, then decline to 85Mbpd by 2050. https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/long-run-oil-demand-model/ There is…
Electricity demand for electric vehicles?
…on studies and self-reported data tabulated in a tab of this model (chart below). Note real world energy consumption can be 20-60% higher than stated by manufacturers or on test-cycles,…
Eastman: molecular recycling technology?
…ten years of polymer pricing history and on our broader model of mechanical plastic recycling. What economics for polyester methanolysis? IRRs, margins and total EBITDA for Eastman’s molecular recycling technology,…
Global heat pump sales by country?
…on data from the European Heat Pump Association. Projections for European heat pumps are found in our European natural gas model. US residential and commercial HVAC system deployments are available…