Search results for: “inflation”
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Inflation: will it de-rail the energy transition?
New energy policies will exacerbate inflation in the developed world, raising price levels by 20-30%. Or more, due to feedback loops. We find this inflation could also cause new energies costs to rise over time, not fall. As inflation concerns accelerate, policymakers may need to choose between delaying decarbonization or lower-cost transition pathways.
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Runaway train: energy, interest rates and inflation?
In the strange world of 2022-30, raising interest rates would not mute inflation, but would actually deepen it. By deepening the very energy shortages that are driving inflation itself. Each 1% increase in capital costs re-inflates new energies 10-20%, infrastructure 2-20%, materials 2-6%, and conventional energy 2-5%. What implications?
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Inflation in the energy transition?
This data-file aims to estimate how much inflation is likely to result from policies to decarbonize the global economy. Aggregate price levels might rise by 6% per $100/ton of CO2 abatement costs. New energies costs rise by 6-30%. Mobility and food rise by 15%. And materials costs rise by an average of 40%.
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US hydrogen production: by facility and by company?
10MTpa of hydrogen is produced in the US, of which 40% is sold by industrial gas companies, 20-25% is generated on site at refineries, 20% at ammonia plants and 15-20% in chemicals/methanol. This datafile breaks down US hydrogen production by facility. Owners of existing steam methane reforming units may readily be able to capture CO2…
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Offshore wind: levelized costs?
This model estimates the levelized cost of offshore wind at 13c/kWh, to generate a 7% IRR off of capex costs of $4,000/kW and a utilization factor of 40-45%. Each $400/kW on capex adds 1c/kWh and each 1% on WACC adds 1.3 c/kWh to offshore wind levelized costs.
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Silver and gold: medal winners?
Gold and silver are stores of value, especially in a world of persistently high inflation and low rates. Silver is also likely to be the main bottleneck for solar in the 2020s. Hence our 18-page note models the end-to-end mining and refining of these metals. We find very steep energy/CO2 curves, and fear supply shortages.…
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LNG: top conclusions in the energy transition?
Thunder Said Energy is a research firm focused on economic opportunities that drive the energy transition. Our top ten conclusions into LNG are summarized below, looking across all of our research.
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Hydrogen: overview and conclusions?
We think the best opportunities in hydrogen will be to decarbonize gas at source via blue and turquoise hydrogen, displacing ‘black hydrogen’ that currently comes from coal, and to produce small-scale feedstock on site via electrolysis for select industries. Others see green hydrogen as a cornerstone of the future energy system. We think there may…
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Boston Metal: molten oxide electrolysis of steel?
Boston Metal aims to decarbonize steel, using molten oxide electrolysis, absorbing 4MWH/ton of steel. This data-file is a Boston Metal technology review, based on assessing 55 patents across 3 families. We were unable to de-risk the technology. A key challenge is conveying current into the cell, as it operates around 1,600C, which is above the…
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Blue ammonia projects: a screen?
This data-file captures a sample of 30MTpa of blue ammonia projects from 1980 to 2030, including their location, companies, timings (year of FID, year of start-up), their sizes (in MTpa), their CO2 reductions (in %), their capex costs (in $M, where disclosed) and the implied capex costs ($/Tpa). We have also summarized each project with…
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