Energy Technologies and Transition

Our research finds opportunities in energy technologies and the energy transition, drawing on technical papers, patents, and economic modelling.

We screen new energy technologies with world-changing potential, including:

The Energy Transition. Our work points to an economic decarbonization of the entire energy industry by 2050, with a CO2 price below $75/ton.

Fossil fuels retain a central role in the decarbonized energy system, but must be the cleanest, most efficient fossil fuels possible, and the remaining CO2 must be offset.

The Ascent of Gas and LNG will see clean-burning natural gas demand trebling in the energy mix by 2050, including the emergence of decarbonized gas.

The Ascent of Renewables will add abundant electricity at the bottom of the cost curve, but investors must focus on returns and avoid “bubbles” that are appearing.

Carbon offsets and nature-based solutions will emerge as a vast, $400bn market. They offer low-cost decarbonization and will displace higher-cost alternatives.

COVID-19 is accelerating structural trends, but also sewing the seeds for the next energy up-cycle. Oil, gas and LNG may swing to record under-supply in 2022-25.

The Ascent of Shale. Continued improvements will give shale the capability to produce 25-30Mbpd of oil, at $25-30/bbl break-evens.

The Industry Must Adapt. All of the changes above require incumbent companies to digitize, deflate, improve their use of technology and lower their CO2 intensities.

We Rank Companies’ technical capabilities, to quantify who is leading the field, based on reviewing over one million patents, including Energy Majors.

We use a Monte Carlo approach, to tie together the themes above and forecast energy markets.

Our “Top Technologies in Energy” are ranked here, tying all of our work together. We also screen which public companies and private companies are tied to our thematic insights.

Copyright: Thunder Said Energy, 2022.