Our research finds opportunities in energy technologies and the energy transition, drawing on technical papers, patents, and economic modelling.
We screen new energy technologies with world-changing potential, including:
The Energy Transition. Our work points to an economic decarbonization of the entire energy industry by 2050, with a CO2 price below $75/ton.
Fossil fuels retain a central role in the decarbonized energy system, but must be the cleanest, most efficient fossil fuels possible, and the remaining CO2 must be offset.
The Ascent of Renewables will add abundant electricity at the bottom of the cost curve, but investors must focus on returns and avoid “bubbles” that are appearing.
Carbon offsets and nature-based solutions will emerge as a vast, $400bn market. They offer low-cost decarbonization and will displace higher-cost alternatives.
COVID-19 is accelerating structural trends, but also sewing the seeds for the next energy up-cycle. Oil, gas and LNG may swing to record under-supply in 2022-25.
The Ascent of Shale. Continued improvements will give shale the capability to produce 25-30Mbpd of oil, at $25-30/bbl break-evens.
We Rank Companies’ technical capabilities, to quantify who is leading the field, based on reviewing over one million patents, including Energy Majors.
We use a Monte Carlo approach, to tie together the themes above and forecast energy markets.