Our research is based on economic modelling of disruptive energy technologies, drawing on technical papers, patents, and our network in the energy industry.
We screen new energy technologies with world-changing potential, including:
- The Energy Transition. Our work points to an economic decarbonization of the entire energy industry by 2050. Fossil fuels retain a large role, but they must be the cleanest, most efficient fossil fuels possible, and the remaining CO2 must be offset.
- The Ascent of Renewables will add abundant electricity at the bottom of the cost curve, but investors must focus on returns and avoid emerging “bubbles”.
- The Ascent of Gas and LNG will see clean-burning gas demand trebling by 2050, and playing an increasing role in transportation.
- Rebound Effects. New sources of supply create enormous new demand-side opportunities. “Electric vehicles” are about much more than “electric cars”.
- The Ascent of Shale. Continued improvements will give shale the capability to produce 25-30Mbpd of oil, at $25-30/bbl break-evens.
- The Industry Must Adapt. All of the changes above require incumbent companies to digitize, deflate and improve their use of technology.
- We Rank Companies’ technical capabilities, across the board, to help decision-makers understand who is leading the field, based on 3,000 patents.
- We use a Monte Carlo approach, to tie together the themes above and forecast energy markets.
For an overview of why technology matters, see ‘Why the Thunder Said‘.
Our “Top Technologies in Energy” are ranked here, tying all of our work together.