Energy Transition Research

Written Insights

Electrification: the rings of power?

Electrification is the most overlooked, most misunderstood opportunity in the energy transition. Hence this 10-page note aims to explain the upside, simply and clearly. Electricity rises from 40% of total useful energy today to 60% by 2050. Within the next decade, this adds $2trn to the enterprise value of capital goods companies in power grids and power electronics.
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Solar capacity: growth through 2030 and 2050?

Forecasts for future solar capacity growth have an unsatisfyingly uncertain range, varying by 3x. Hence this 15-page note discusses the future of solar. Solar capacity additions likely accelerate 3.5x by 2030 and 5x by 2040. But this creates bottlenecks, including for seven materials; and requires >$1trn pa of additional power grid capex plus $1trn pa of power electronics capex.
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Fluorinated polymers: flying under the radar?

Fluorinated polymers are a stealth bottleneck for the energy transition: used in solar back-sheets, battery binders/separators, wind blades, and across the hydrogen chain. They are easily overlooked. This 400kTpa market grows 6x by 2050. Markets are already tight. And the ‘CO2 curve’ is very steep. Our 15-page report explores the market, the upside and who benefits.
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Energy shortage: fear in a handful of dust?

Should restoring the world’s energy surplus be seen as the most important ESG goal of the 2020s? This 12-page note outlines our top ten considerations, as our energy balances have deteriorated even further in the last year. Under-supply could persist through 2030. Shortages have cruel consequences. And unexpected ripple effects. Energy surplus also helps energy transition.
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Reaching criticality: nuclear re-accelerates?

400 GW of nuclear reactors produce 2,800TWH of zero carbon electricity globally each year. But the numbers have been stagnant for two decades. This is now changing. This 14-page note explains why. We expect a >3% CAGR through 2030, and hope for a 2.5x ramp through 2050. A ‘nuclear renaissance’ helps the energy transition.
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Weird recessions: can commodities de-couple from GDP?

In a ‘weird recession’, GDP growth turns negative, yet commodity prices continue surprising to the upside. This 10-page note explores three reasons that 2022-24 may bring a ‘weird recession’. There is historical precedent, prices must remain high to attract new investment, and buyers may stockpile bottlenecked materials. How will this affect different industries?
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Silver and gold: medal winners?

Gold and silver are stores of value, especially in a world of persistently high inflation and low rates. Silver is also likely to be the main bottleneck for solar in the 2020s. Hence our 18-page note models the end-to-end mining and refining of these metals. We find very steep energy/CO2 curves, and fear supply shortages. What upside for well-run gold-silver incumbents?
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Runaway train: energy, interest rates and inflation?

In the under-supplied world of 2022-30, raising interest rates might not mute inflation, but could actually deepen it. By deterring the investments needed to cure inflation itself. Each 1% increase in capital costs re-inflates new energies 10-20%, infrastructure 2-20%, materials 2-6%, and conventional energy 2-5%. What implications?
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Battery degradation: causes, effects & implications?

This 14-page note offers five rules of thumb to maximize the longevity of lithium-ion batteries, in grid-scale storage and electric vehicles. The data suggest hidden upside in the demand for batteries, for lithium and high-quality power electronics, especially if batteries are to backstop renewables.
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Energy policy: unleashing new technologies?

Does policy de-risk new technology? This 10-page note is a case study. The Synthetic Fuels Corporation was created by the US Government in 1980. It was promised $88bn. But it missed its target to unleash 2Mbpd of next-generation fuels by 1992. There were four challenges. Are they worth remembering in new energies today?
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Global gas: five predictions through 2030?

Modelling Europe’s gas balances currently feels like grasping at straws. Yet this 10-page note makes five predictions through 2030. We have revised our views on how fast new energies ramp, which gas gets displaced first, which energy sources are no longer ‘in the firing line’, and gas pricing.
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Green hydrogen: can electrolysers run off renewables?

What degradation rate is expected for a green hydrogen electrolyser, if it is powered by volatile wind and solar? This 15-page note reviews past projects and technical papers. 5-10% pa degradation rates would raise green hydrogen costs by $1/kg. Avoiding degradation justifies higher capex, especially on power-electronics and even batteries?
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Solar volatility: tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies?

This 20-page note quantifies the statistical distribution of short-term volatility at solar power plants. Solar output typically flickers downwards by over 10%, around 100 times per day. Can industrial processes truly be ‘powered by solar’? What are the best opportunities to buffer the volatility and what are their costs?
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Energy units: life, the universe and everything?

Energy is the glue of our universe. Literally everything is at some level an energy flow – from viewing this text to matter itself – which can be expressed in Joules and kWh. Hence this 16-page overview is a useful reference, to translate from any energy units to any others; for comparisons; and to understand the units in energy transition.
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Scope 4 emissions: avoided CO2 has value?

Scope 4 CO2 emissions reflect the CO2 avoided by an activity. This 11-page note argues the metric warrants more attention. It yields an ‘all of the above’ approach to energy transition, shows where each investment dollar achieves most decarbonization and maximizes the impact of renewables.
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Solar volatility: interconnectors versus batteries?

The solar energy reaching a given point on Earth’s surface varies by +/- 6% each year. Fluctuations are 96% correlated over tens of miles. And no battery can economically smooth them. Our 17-page note outlines this challenge, and finds the best solutions are to construct high-voltage interconnectors and keep power grids diversified.
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Gas diffusion: how will record prices resolve?

Dispersion in global gas prices has hit new highs in 2022. Hence this 17-page note evaluates two possible solutions. Building more LNG plants achieves 15-20% IRRs. But shuttering some of Europe’s gas-consuming industry then re-locating it in gas-rich countries can achieve 20-40% IRRs, lower net CO2 and lower risk? Both solutions should step up. What implications?
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North Field: sharing the weight of the world?

The North Field is now the most important conventional energy asset on the planet. It produces 4% of world energy, 20% of global LNG and aims to ramp another 50MTpa of low-carbon LNG by 2028. But what if Qatar’s exceptional reliability gets disrupted by unforeseen conflict with Iran?
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Political shifts: do energy shortages cause revolutions?

We tabulated data from 138 elections over 60 years in 7 countries. When food and energy prices spike, there is a 75% chance of government change. Revolutions can be triggered by food-energy shortages too. Hence this 14-page note evaluates whether major policy changes are coming?
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Solar contacts: silver bullet?

The front contacts in today’s solar cells are made of screen-printed silver, absorbing 11% of 2021’s silver market. Silver can be substituted with copper, but manufacturing is c5x more costly. So we expect a silver spike, then a switch. This 16-page note explains our outlook, and who benefits?
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Energy transition: wheel of time?

This 15-page note reflects on the last 15-years of energy, the world and our own experiences. Mega-trends do not move in straight lines. The world has often changed direction, getting waylaid by unexpected crises. We wonder if energy transition goals, policies and solutions may be shifting?
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Savanna carbon: great plains?

Savannas are an open mix of trees, brush and grasses. They comprise up to 20% of the world’s land, 30% of its CO2 fixation, and their active management could abate 1GTpa of CO2 at low cost. This 17-page research note was inspired by exploring some wild savannas and thus draws on photos and observation.
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Levelized cost: ten things I hate about you?

‘Levelized cost’ analysis can be mis-used, as though one ‘energy source to rule them all’ was on the cusp of pushing out all the other energy sources. Cost depends on context. Every power source usually ranges from 5-15c/kWh. A resilient, low-carbon grid is diversified. And there is hidden value.
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TOPCon: maverick?

A new solar cell is vying to re-shape the PV industry, with 2-5% efficiency gains and c25-35% lower silicon use. This 13-page note reviews TOPCon cells, which will take some sting out of solar re-inflation, tighten silver bottlenecks and may further entrench China’s solar giants.
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FACTS of life: upside for STATCOMs & SVCs?

Wind and solar have so far leaned upon conventional power grids. But larger deployments will increasingly need to produce their own reactive power; controllably, dynamically. Demand for STATCOMs & SVCs may thus rise 30x, to over $25-50bn pa. This 20-page note outlines the opportunity and who benefits?
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Capacitor banks: raising power factors?

Power factor corrections could save 0.5% of global electricity, with $20/ton CO2 abatement costs in normal times, and 30% pure IRRs during energy shortages. They will also be needed to integrate more new energies into power grids. This note outlines the opportunity in capacitor banks, their economics and leading companies.
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Biofuels: the best of times, the worst of times?

How will food and energy shortages re-shape liquid biofuels? This 11-page note explores four questions. Could the US re-consider its ethanol blending to help world food security? Could rising cash costs of bio-diesel inflate global diesel prices to $6-8/gal? Will renewable diesel expansion be dialed back? What outlook for each biofuel in the energy transition?
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East to West: re-shoring the energy transition?

China is 18% of the world’s people and GDP. But it makes c50% of the world’s metals, 60% of its wind turbines, 70% of its solar panels and 80% of its lithium ion batteries. Re-shoring is likely to be a growing motivation after events of 2022. This 14-page note explores resultant opportunities.
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Power transmission: raising electrical potential?

Electricity transmission matters in the energy transition, integrating dispersed renewables over long distances to reach growing demand centers. This 15-page note argues future transmission needs will favor large HVDCs, costing 2-3c/kWh per 1,000km, which are materially lower-cost and more efficient than other alternatives.
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Wood use: what CO2 credentials?

The carbon credentials of wood are not black-and-white. They depend on context. So this 13-page note draws out the numbers and five key conclusions. They highlight climate negatives for deforestation, climate positives for using waste wood and wood materials (with some debate around paper), and very strong climate positives for natural gas.
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Direct lithium extraction: ten grains of salt?

Direct Lithium Extraction from brines could help lithium scale 30x in the Energy Transition; with costs and CO2 intensities 30-70% below mined lithium; while avoiding the 1-2 year time-lags of evaporative salars. This 15-page note reviews the top ten challenges that decision-makers need to de-risk.
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Energy security: the return of long-term contracts?

Spot markets have delivered more and more ‘commodities on demand’. But is this model fit for energy transition? Many markets are now short, causing explosive price rises. Sufficient volumes may still not be available at any price. This note considers a renaissance for long-term contracts.
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Graphite: upgrade to premium?

Global graphite volumes grow 6x in the energy transition, mostly driven by electric vehicles. We see the industry moving away from China’s near-exclusive control. The future favors a handful of Western producers, integrated from mine to anode, with CO2 intensity below 10kg/kg. This 10-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Finnish forests: a two billion ton CO2 case-study?

Can forests absorb CO2 at multi-GTpa scale? This 19-page note is a case study from Finland, where detailed data goes back a century. 70% of the country is forest. It is managed sustainably, equitably, economically. And forests have sequestered 2GT of CO2 in the past century, offsetting two-thirds of the country’s fossil emissions.
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Nickel solutions: unblocking a battery bottleneck?

The global nickel market will grow from $30bn pa to $300bn in the energy transition, including a 5x increase in volumes and 2x increase in price. This 15-page note evaluates the nickel supply chain for electric vehicle battery cathodes. Deficits are looming. Hence we end by screening nickel names.
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Global oil demand: rumors of my death?

‘Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated’. Mark Twain’s quote also applies to global oil consumption. This note aggregates demand data for 8 oil products and 120 countries over the COVID pandemic. We see 3.5Mbpd of pent-up demand ‘upside’, acting as a floor on medium-term oil prices.
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Energy transition: the world turned upside down?

Energy shortages are now the second largest problem in the world. Hence this 14-page note evaluates short- and medium-term options to alleviate them. Despite a lot of posturing, we see 'new energies' slowing down in 2022-23. The world is upside down and somehow coal is going to be an unexpected savior.
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Energy shortages: priced out of the world?

Deepening energy shortages in 2022-30 could devastate low-income countries, geopolitically isolate the West, and de-rail decarbonization. This 13-page note evaluates the linkage between energy consumption and income over the past half century and quantifies what a 'just transition' would look like.
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EV fast charging: opening the electric floodgates?

This 14-page note explains the crucial power-electronics in an electric vehicle fast-charging station that runs at 150-350kW. Most important are power-MOSFETs, comprising c5-10% of charger costs. The market trebles by the late 2020s.
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Falling towers: how will energy shortages play out?

If global energy supplies run short, then someone has to curtail demand. Europe is in the firing line, with 7% of the world’s people, using 17% of its energy, of which 65% is imported. So this 13-page note searches for the least bad options to cut European energy demand. Energy intensive industries may shutter and never return.
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Electric vehicles: chargers of the light brigade?

This 14-page note compares the economics of EV charging stations with conventional fuel retail stations. Our main question is whether EV chargers will ultimately get over-built. Hence prospects may be best for charging equipment and component manufacturers.
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Nuclear fusion: what are the challenges?

Nuclear fusion could provide a limitless supply of zero-carbon energy from the 2030s onwards. The goal of this 20-page note is simply to understand the challenges for fusion reactors, especially deuterium-tritium tokamaks. Innovations need to improve EROI, stability, longevity and costs.
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US LNG: new perceptions?

Perceptions in the energy transition are likely to change in 2022, amidst energy shortages, inflation and geopolitical discord. The biggest change will be a re-prioritization of US LNG. At $7.5/mcf, there is 200MTpa of upside by 2030, which could also abate 1GTpa of CO2. This 15 page note outlines our conclusions. 
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Glass fiber: what upside in the energy transition?

Glass fiber makes up 50% of a wind turbine blade, lightens vehicles and insulates homes for 30-70% energy savings. Hence we see demand rising 3.5x in the energy transition. To appraise the opportunity, this 13-page note assesses the market, costs, CO2 intensity and leading companies.
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Renewables: can they ramp up faster?

How fast can wind and solar accelerate, especially if energy shortages persist? This 11-page note reviews the top ten bottlenecks. Seven value chains will tighten enormously in the coming years. Paradoxically, however, ramping renewables could exacerbate near-term energy shortages.
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Energy crisis: ten themes for 2022?

We are all hoping for ‘normalization’ in 2022. But what if the world is instead entering a full-blown energy crisis, as severe and persistent as the first ‘oil shock’? This 21-page note lays out ten hypotheses, drawing on history. Everything we know about energy transition may change this year.
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Decarbonizing global energy: the route to net zero?

This 18-page report revises our roadmap for the world to reach 'net zero' by 2050. The average cost is still $40/ton of CO2, with an upper bound of $120/ton, but this masks material mix-shifts. New opportunities are largest in efficiency gains, under-supplied commodities, power-electronics, conventional CCUS and nature-based CO2 removals.
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Solar decline rates: causes and solutions?

The average solar asset declines at 2.5% per year. This 14-page note reviews the causes. We find humid climates moderate Potential Induced Degradation, adding a relative headwind in coastal geographies and floating solar. But an exciting way to mitigate declines is emerging via smaller inverters.
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Green steel: circular reference?

Steel explains almost c10% of global CO2. Hence 2021 has seen the world’s first green steel, made using green hydrogen. Yet inflation worries us. At $7.5/kg H2, green steel would cost 2x conventional steel. In turn, doubling the global steel price would re-inflate green H2 costs. This note explores inflationary feedback loops and other options for steel-makers.
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Is the world investing enough in energy?

Global energy investment in 2020-21 has been running 10% below the level needed on our roadmap to net zero. Under-investment is steepest for solar, wind and gas. Under-appreciated is that each $1 dis-invested from fossil fuels must be replaced with $25 in renewables. Future capex needs are vast.
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Energy Market Models

Global energy: supply-demand model?

Our outlooks for coal, oil, gas, nuclear, wind and solar are balanced against global energy demand in this data-file. Energy shortages may deepen throughout the 2020s. Scenario testing shows possible resolutions from higher energy prices to "destroy demand" and more global gas.
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Global energy demand: by region and through 2050?

This model captures global energy demand by region through 2050, rising from 70,000 TWH in 2019-22 to 120,000 MWH in 2050. Demand rises c2% pa. Energy use per global person rises at 1% pa from 9.3 MWH pp pa to 12.6 MWH pp pa. Meeting human civilization's energy needs is crucial to the energy transition.
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Energy transition: the top ten commodities?

This data-file summarizes our latest thesis on ten commodities with upside in the energy transition. The average one will see demand rise by 3x and price/cost appreciate or re-inflate by 100%. The data-file contains a 6-10 line summary of our work into each commodity.
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Nuclear capacity: forecasts, construction times, operating lives?

How much nuclear capacity would need to be constructed in our roadmap to net zero? This breakdown of global nuclear capacity forecasts that 30 GW of new reactors must be brought online each year through 2050, if the nuclear industry was to ramp up to 7,000 TWH of generation by 2050, which would be 6% of total global energy. There is a precedent. Delaying shutdowns helps too.
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Power grids: global investment?

Global investment into power networks averaged $280bn per annum in 2015-20, of which two-thirds was for distribution and one-third was for transmission. Amazingly, these numbers step up to $600bn in 2030, >$1trn in the 2040s and can be as large as all primary energy investment.
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Power electronics: market size in energy transition?

We describe c15 problems incurred by industrial and commercial power consumers. Many will require additional investment as renewables replace the large rotating generators of traditional power grids. Hence we see the market for commercial and industrial power electronics trebling from $360bn pa in 2021 to $1trn pa by 2035.
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Wind and solar capacity additions?

This model aims to calculate global wind and solar capacity additions. How many GW of new capacity would be needed for renewables to reach c25% of the global energy mix by 2050, up from 4% in 2021? In total energy terms, this means a 10x scale up, to 30,000 TWH of useful wind+solar energy in 2050. Gross global wind and solar capacity additions will surpass +1,000 GW by 2040.
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Long-term LNG supplies: devastating shortages?

Our LNG model estimates production volumes from each of 125 LNG facilities, including 'risking' estimates for pre-FID projects. The 2030 supply outlook can be swayed by 30MTpa. But near-term, we see devastating LNG shortages looming in the early 2020s.
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European Natural Gas Demand Model

European gas demand would rise at its fastest pace in a quarter-century in the 2020s, if not for persistent under-supplies and high prices. Our model reflects a dozen input variables in the energy transition: e.g., renewables, electric vehicles, phasing out of coal, nuclear, and hydrogen.
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Global energy market model for the energy transition?

This model breaks down 2050 and 2100's global energy market, based on a dozen input assumptions. You can 'flex' these, to see how it will affect future oil, coal and gas demand, as well as global CO2 emissions. We reach 'net zero' by 2050. Even as fossil fuel demand rises 18%, gas demand trebles and renewables also reach c16%.
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Global coal production: a supply outlook?

Our models of the energy transition ease coal production back from 8GTpa in 2019 to 5GTpa by 2030, in the interests of decarbonization. However, this model explores what is required to meet this ambition. For 2022, we are worried about coal supply shortages.
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Copper: global demand forecasts?

This data-file estimates global copper demand as part of the energy transition, rising from 27MTpa in 2019 to 75MTpa in our base case scenario. The largest contributor is the electrification of transport. You can stress test half-a-dozen key input variables in the model.
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Lithium: global demand forecasts?

This data-file estimates global demand for lithium as part of the energy transition. The market has already trebled from 23kTpa in 2010 to 65kTpa in 2020, while we see the ascent continuing to 500kTpa in 2030 and almost 2MTpa in 2050. 90% is driven by transport. Global reserves suffice to cover the demand.
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Long-Run Oil Demand Model

Our model calculates long-run oil demand to 2050, end-use by end-use, year-by-year, region-by-region across the US, the OECD and the non-OECD; as a function of 25 input variables, which you can flex. It also reflects our modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our own scenario sees a plateau at c103Mbpd in the 2020s. 
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US shale production forecasts by basin?

This model contains our basin-by-basin shale forecasts, covering the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford. We model shale will be running 7Mbpd versus its pre-COVID potential in mid-2022. Improving well-productivity can still unleash c15Mbpd of US shale liquids by 2025.
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China Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions, 2000-2060

This is a model of China's total energy demand and CO2 emissions, from 2000-2060. Full decarbonization by 2060 is possible. But so is a 2.5x increase in emissions to 25GTpa. Which scenario unfolds depends more on consumption habits than on policy. Oil, gas, coal and renewables can all be stress-tested in the model.
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Decarbonization of the United States with a CO2 price?

We have modelled how a CO2 price could decarbonize the United States, using a granular model of US emissions, looking commodity-by-commodity and sector-by-sector. A real $40/ton CO2 price, starting in 2021, escalating by 5% pa above inflation, could fully decarbonize the country by 2050.
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Oil markets: finding the balance?

We bound the uncertainties in 2020-25 oil markets using a Monte Carlo approach. Our inputs are c45 supply-demand lines, modeled monthly to 2025, including their volatility. The market outlook is more balanced than any other time we have assessed it in the past few years. Prices should move sideways?
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Economic Models

Energy economics: an overview?

This data-file provides an overview of 150 economic models constructed by Thunder Said Energy, in order to help you put numbers in context. The file shows how EBIT margins, cash margins, capex per ton, capex per kW and other financial ratios vary sub-sector by sub-sector, across power, fuels and manufacturing.
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Hydrofluoric acid: the economics?

Hydrogen fluoride is a crucial commodity chemical. This model captures its production from acid-grade fluorspar and sulfuric acid. We think marginal costs are around $1,850/ton, in order to earn a 10% IRR on a production facility costing $4,000/Tpa, while the fully loaded CO2 intensity is around 0.75 tons/ton.
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Nitric acid: production costs?

Global production of nitric acid is 60MTpa, in a $25bn pa market, spanning c500 production facilities. This data-file estimates a marginal cost of $350/ton HNO3 and a CO2 intensity averaging 1.8 tons/ton. There are feedback loops where gas shortages could result in fertilizer and metal shortages.
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Silver and gold: the economics?

This data-file captures the marginal cost of silver and gold production, at an integrated mining-refining operation. In our base case, a 10% IRR requires a silver price of $17/Oz and a gold price of $1,750/Oz, while the energy and CO2 intensities are an eye watering 100-150 tons/ton and 9,000 tons/ton, respectively. Numbers vary widely on ore grade.
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Heap leaching: energy economics?

This data-file captures the energy economics of leaching in the mining industry, especially the costs of heap leaching, for the extraction of copper, nickel, gold, silver, other precious metals, uranium, and Rare Earths. The data-file allows you to stress test costs in $/ton of ore, $/ton of metal, capex, opex, chemicals costs, energy intensity and CO2 intensity.
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Electrowinning: costs and energy economics?

Electrowinning costs and energy economics are built up in this data-file. A charge of $900/ton is required to earn a 10% IRR on a $3,000/kTpa plant with a median energy consumption of 2-3 MWH/ton. Although this will vary metal by metal.
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Costs of hydrogen from coal gasification?

What are the costs of hydrogen from coal gasification? This model looks line-by-line, across different plant configurations, aggregating data from technical papers. Black hydrogen costs $1-2/kg. But CO2 intensity is very high, as much as 25 tons/ton. It can possibly be decarbonized resulting in semi-clean hydrogen costing c$2.5/kg.
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Froth flotation: the economics?

The costs of froth flotation are aggregated in this data-file, building up the typical capex costs (in $/Tpa), energy costs (in kWh/ton) and other opex lines (in $/ton) of one of the most important processes for the modern metals and materials industry. A good rule of thumb is $10/ton costs to concentrate a material by over 4x.
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Cyanide production: the economics?

Hydrogen cyanide is a chemical intermediate, used for making perspex, nylon-6,6 and sodium cyanide, which in turn is a crucial chemical for extracting gold and silver from precious metal ores. Marginal costs are usually $1,500-1,650/ton and CO2 intensities are 2-3 tons/ton.
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UK HPHT gas fields: marginal cost?

Marginal costs of a HPHT project in the UK North Sea are captured via modeling Shell's 40kboed Jackdaw project, FID'ed in 2022. A $7/mcf marginal cost results mostly from high hurdle rates associated with project complexity. CO2 intensity has been lowered to c14kg/boe, we think.
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Bio-coke: energy economics?

Bio-coke is a substitute for coal-coke in steel-making and other smelting operations. We model it will cost c$450/ton, c50% more than coal-coke, but saves 2 - 2.5 tons/ton of CO2. Abatement costs can be as low as $70/ton. Although not always, and there are comparability issues.
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Mining: crushing, grinding and comminution costs?

Mining crushing-grinding costs are typically $10/ton of ore, breaking 3-10cm rubble into 30-100 micron powders. Capex averages $20/Tpa and energy cost averages 20kWh/ton.
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Pumped hydro: the economics?

This data-file assesses pumped hydro costs, to back up wind and solar. A typical project has 0.5GW of capacity, 12-hours storage duration, 80% efficiency, and capex costs of $2,250/kW. Thus it requires a 25c/kWh storage spread, in order to generate a 10% IRR.
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Offshore oil: marginal cost?

What is the marginal cost of offshore oil and gas? This data-file captures a small project, off Africa, with $15/boe development cost, $15/boe opex, 70% fiscal take. Break-even is at $35-45/bbl. But a $90/bbl forward curve may be needed for definitive go-ahead.
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Chlor-alkali process: the economics?

This data-file captures chlor-alkali process economics, to produce 80MTpa of chlorine and 90MTpa of caustic soda. Our base case requires $600 per ecu for a 10% IRR and a growth project costing $600/Tpa. Electricity is 45% of cash cost. CO2 intensity is 0.5 tons/ton. Interestingly, chlor-alkali plants can demand shift.
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Capacitor banks: the economics?

This model captures the economics of power factor correction via installing capacitor banks upstream of inductive loads. A 10% IRR is derived from a system costing $30/kVAR, reducing real power losses by 0.5%, thus saving on 8c/kWh electricity prices (75% of savings), $3.5/kW demand charges (15%) and a $20/ton CO2 price (10%).
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Sulphur recovery units: Claus process economics?

This data-file captures the economics of producing sulphur from H2S via the Claus process, yielding an important input for phosphate fertilizers and metals. Cash costs are $40-60/ton and marginal costs are $100/ton. CO2 intensity is low at 0.1 tons/ton. Data-file explores shortages in energy transition?
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Lithium from brines: the economics?

This data-file approximates the costs of battery-grade lithium from brines, via traditional salars the emerging technology of direct lithium extraction. Costs are c40-60% lower than mined lithium in ($/ton of lithium carbonate equivalent). CO2 intensity is 50-80% lower (in kg/kg).
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Graphite production: the economics?

This data-file captures simplified costs for producing battery-grade graphite (i.e., 99.9% pure, coated, spheronized graphite) in an integrated facility, from mine to packaged output. Our marginal cost is estimated at around $10,000/ton for a 10% IRR. CO2 intensity varies but averages 10kg/kg.
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Urea production: the economics

This data-file captures the economics of producing urea, an important fertilizer and intermediate material. We estimate a marginal cost of $325/ton, based on $2/mcf-e energy inputs. CO2 intensity is 1.5 tons/ton. But costs will increase well above $800/ton during times of energy shortages.
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Oil storage terminals: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of constructing an oil storage terminal (aka a "tank farm"). A typical facility needs to charge a $1.5/bbl storage spread to earn a 10% IRR over a 30-year life. Capex costs per kWh of energy are 97% lower than grid-scale batteries. It may become more challenging to finance new facilities in the energy transition.
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Formaldehyde production: the economics?

Formaldehyde producton costs are captured in this data-file, covering one of the 'top 50' commodity chemicals intermediates (MDF, wind turbine blades, disinfectants). Marginal cost is $500/ton, a direct linear function of gas prices. Embedded CO2 is 0.75 tons/ton, of which 90% is from methanol inputs.
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Nickel production: the economics?

This model captures the economics of producing battery-grade nickel (e.g., Class I, nickel sulphate) at a metallurgical processing facility. Marginal cost is likely around $11,500/ton in order to generate a 10% IRR, in a process emitting 14 tons of CO2 per ton of product. Numbers vary.
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Auto manufacturing: the economics?

This is a simple model, to break down the $30k sales price of a typical mass-market automobile. c25% accrues to suppliers, c20% is sales taxes, c20% is dealer costs/logistics, c10% employees, c10% material inputs, c10% O&M, 1% electricity and c5% auto-maker margins. Prices may inflate 60% amidst industrial shortages.
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Paper production: energy economics?

Paper is made by boiling wood-dust to extract cellulose fibers, then forming and drying this fibrous slush. A large new paper mill must charge $700/ton for a 10% IRR. The controversy is CO2 intensity, which is 0.4kg/kg from fossil energy, and 2.4kg/kg if you count the CO2 from burning wood residues too.
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Fuel retail: economics of a petrol station?

This data-file captures the economics for a fuel-retailing "petrol station" to earn a 10% IRR. A typical EBIT margin is 17c/gallon; with a c6% margin on direct fuel sales; plus 10-20% of revenues from convenience retail at a higher, c25-30% margin.
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LNG regasification: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics for a typical LNG regas facility. We estimate that a fixed plant with 75-80% utilization requires a spread near to $0.5-0.8/mcf on its gas imports, in order to earn a 5-10% IRR. But there is asymmetric upside amidst gas shortages.
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Glass fiber: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of producing glass fiber, the key component in fiberglass for wind turbines; but also a light-weight insulating material. Marginal cost is likely $2,000/ton, with a CO2 intensity of 1.5 tons/ton. Some Chinese product is 50% cheaper but 2x more CO2 intensive.
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Steel production: the economics?

This data-file captures steel production from the reduction of iron ore in a blast furnace and basic oxygen furnace. Our base case is a marginal cost of $550/ton and 2.4 tons/ton of CO2. Decarbonization options such as hydrogen can be stress-tested.
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CO2 liquefaction: the economics?

This data-file captures the costs of liquefying CO2 for transportation in a ship, rail car or truck, to promote smaller-scale CCS. Our baseline is a cost of $15/ton, using c100kWh of energy per ton of CO2, which is approximately equivalent to a c3% energy penalty. There is scope for optimization.
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Coal mining: the economics?

Coal is ridiculously cheap, providing thermal energy at around 1c/kWh while also generating a 10% IRR on new investment. But CO2 intensity is also very high at 0.55kg/kWh (thermal basis). Capex, opex and cost breakdowns are in the data-file.
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Variable frequency drives: the economics?

Variable frequency drives optimize the operating speeds of electric motors. Average energy saving are 34% and average costs are $250/kW. Hence our modelling calculates >15% IRRs installing a VFD at a typical industrial motor. This data-file captures the economics.
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Synchronous condensers: the economics?

This data-file captures the costs of installing a synchronous condenser, downstream of a renewable power facility, to emulate the inertia, reactive power and short circuit power from conventional generators. 1.0 - 2.5 c/kWh of costs may be added to the power supplies flowing out of the SC.
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Mine trucks: transport economics?

There are around 50,000 giant mining trucks in operation globally. The largest examples are 15m long, 10m wide, 8m high, can carry around 350-450 tons and reach top speeds of 40mph. This data-file captures the economics, costs and inflationary impacts of decarbonization.
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LNG transport: shipping economics?

This data-file breaks down the cost of shipping cryogenic cargoes in seaborne tankers. LNG costs $1-3/mcf while liquid CO2 costs $5-50/ton. The most important input variable is transport distance. Although switching to e-fuels (green hydrogen, ammonia, methanol) doubles total cost.
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Commercial aviation: air travel economics?

This data-file estimates the economics of a passenger jet, over the course of its life: i.e., what ticket price must be charged to earn a 10% IRR after covering the capex costs of the plane, fuel costs, crew, maintenance and airport and air traffic charges. Decarbonization is challenging.
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Container freight: shipping economics?

This data-file models the total costs of shipping a container c10,000 nautical miles from China to the West, in a 20,000 TEU vessel. Emerging fuels can lower the CO2 intensity of shipping from their baseline of 0.15kg/TEU-mile, by 60-90%, but freight costs inflate by 30%-3x.
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Carbon fiber: energy economics?

We estimate a marginal cost of $25/kg for a 10% IRR at a new carbon fiber plant. The process will emit 30 tons of CO2 per ton of carbon fiber if powered by gas and electricity. This data-file traces the value chain, the CO2 intensity and the production costs.
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Ammonia synthesis: the economics?

Ammonia production explains over 1% of global emissions. Our model derives a marginal cost of $450/ton, with a CO2 intensity of 2.4 tons per ton. The best decarbonization option is nature based solutions, as the data-file stress-tests CO2 abatement options, such as cleaner hydrogen inputs.
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Copper: the economics?

It is not unimaginable that copper prices could reach $15,000/ton in an aggressive energy transition scenario. This data-file models the economics, and quantifies 4kg of CO2 emissions per kg of copper production, across a typical supply chain.
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Lithium mining and upgrading: the economics?

This data-file quantifies the economics of producing lithium carbonate from spodumene in mined pegmatites. We estimate a price of $12,500/ton lithium carbonate price is likely needed for a 10% IRR in today's China-heavy value chain, which emits 50kg of CO2 per kg of lithium.
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Absorption chillers: the economics?

This data-file approximates the costs of absorption chillers, which perform the thermodynamic alchemy of converting waste heat (e.g., from a CHP turbine) into coldness. This will be increasingly important to shore up future, renewables-heavy grids. 10% IRRs can also be generated with $50/ton CO2 abatement costs.
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Turquoise hydrogen from methane pyrolysis: economics?

Turquoise hydrogen is produced by thermal decomposition of methane at high temperatures, from 600-1,200◦C. Costs can beat green hydrogen. This data-file quantifies the economics (in $/kg), how to generate 10% IRRs, possible capex costs, and remaining challenges for commercialization.
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Landfill gas: the economics?

We estimate that a typical landfill facility may be able to capture and abate 70% of its methane leaks for a CO2-equivalent cost of $5/ton. Other landfill gas pathways get more complex and expensive. Raw and unprocessed landfill gas can be economical to commercialize at a cost of $2-4/mcfe.
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Photovoltaic silicon: the economics?

This model breaks down the costs of photovoltaic silicon, which explains $0.1/W of a $0.3/W solar panel. There is no way silicon producers are making economic returns below $12.5/kg mono-crystalline polysilicon prices. The average kg of PV silicon in a solar panel is also most likely associated with 140kg of direct CO2.
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Battery recycling: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of recycling spent lithium ion batteries, taking in waste cells, and recovering materials such as cobalt, nickel, manganese, copper, aluminium, lithium and steel. It currently looks challenging to generate acceptable IRRs without charging a disposal fee in the range of $1,700-2,000/ton. This could change through more automated processes.
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Polymers and higher olefins: the economics?

Our base case for producing high density polyethylene (HDPE) from ethylene requires pricing of $1,250/ton for a 10% IRR on a new greenfield plant. CO2 intensity is 0.3 kg/kg. However temperatures and pressures can vary vastly for different polymers, moving energy economics accordingly.
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Ethanol-to-ethylene: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of producing bio-ethylene by dehydration of ethanol. We estimate an ethylene price of $1,600/Tpa is required for a 10% IRR, which is almost 2x higher than a conventional ethane cracker. In a best case scenario, costs could fall below $1,000/ton.
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Ethanol from corn: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of producing ethanol from corn. Our base case requires a price of $1.6/gallon of ethanol for a 10% IRR on a new greenfield plant, equivalent to $2.4/gallon gasoline. 40% of the US corn crop is diverted into biofuels, but the rationale is marginal.
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Aluminium production: energy economics?

This data-file captures the energy economics of aluminium production via electrolysis, breaking down the costs line-by-line. The overall process emits 10kg of CO2 per kg of aluminium. 10% IRRs are achievable at recent prices of $2.3/kg. But challenges are illustrated for environmental policy.
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Technology Screens

Top Private Companies In Energy Transition?

This data-file presents the 'top 50' private companies out of several hundred that have crossed our screens since the inception of Thunder Said Energy, looking back across all of our research. Our rankings are based on economics, technical readiness, technical edge, decarbonization and our own depth of analysis.
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Top Public Companies In Energy Transition

This data-file compiles all of our insights into publicly listed companies in the energy transition: commercialising economic technologies that can advance the world towards 'net zero' CO2 by 2050. As of August-2022, we have 285 differentiated views on 148 public companies.
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Silica producers: screen of leading companies?

Highly pure silica sand, with well over 95% SiO2 content and less than 0.6% iron oxide, is an important resource used in making glass, metal foundries, "proppant" for hydraulic fracturing in the oil and gas industry and making high-grade silicon (for chips and PV silicon). The market is 350MTpa. This data-file is a screen of the world's largest silica sand producers.
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Fluorinated polymers: company screen?

This data-file is a screen of companies in the fluorinated polymer value chain. It captures ten large Western companies, with exposure to producing fluorspar, refining fluorspar into hydrofluoric acid (HF) and/or further processing into fluorinated polymers, which matter increasingly in the energy transition.
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Building automation: energy savings, KNX case studies and companies?

High-quality building automation typically saves 30-40% of the energy needed for lighting, heating and cooling a building. This matters amidst energy shortages, and reduces payback times on $100-500k up-front capex. This data-file aggregates case studies of KNX energy savings, and screens 70 companies, from Capital Goods giants to private pure-plays.
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Overview of mining equipment companies?

This data-file is an overview of mining equipment companies. For each company, we have noted its location, size, age, number of employees, number of patents, latest revenues, operating margins, exposure to the mining equipment industry, and a few short summary sentences. Where possible, we have also broken down the company's revenues by end-market or by commodity.
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Recycling: a global overview of energy savings?

1GTpa of material is recycled globally, across steel, paper, glass, plastics and other metals. On average, 35% of these materials are produced from recycled feeds, saving 70% of the energy and CO2, with upside in the Energy Transition.
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Silver producers: leading companies?

Half of the world's 28kTpa global silver market is controlled by 17 public companies, with silver output ranging from 0.1 - 2.0 kTpa, and co-producing gold, copper or other metals. This data-file is a screen of silver producers, in order to identify leading companies. 
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STATCOMs and SVCs: leading companies?

This data file looks for leading companies in STATCOMs and SVCs by aggregating all Western patents that refer in their title, abstract or claims to "STATCOMs", "Static VAR Compensators", or similar. ABB (now part of Hitachi), Siemens Energy and GE stand out as Western leaders in a concentrated space, although competition is growing.
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HVDC transmission: leading companies?

The global HVDC market is $10bn pa, and it might typically cost c€100-600 M to connect a large and remote renewables project to the grid or run a small HVDC inter-connector. This data-file reviews the market leaders in HVDC, based on 5,500 patents. A dozen companies stand out, with c$40bn of combined revenues from power transmission projects.
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Graphite producers: leading companies?

This data-file screens 15 companies that are developing graphite mines, plus downstream refining facilities, to upgrade their output into highly pure spheronized graphite that can be used as an anode material for lithium ion batteries, such as in electric vehicles.
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Nickel producers: a screen of miners and refiners?

25 companies dominate the world's nickel production, although the supply chain is heavily split between battery-grade materials, Class I metals, and lower-grade products. Each company is summarized, according to its size and asset base. CO2 intensity varies by a very wide 10x margin, from sub-10 tons/ton nickel to 100 tons/ton.
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Coal miners: a screen of Western companies?

In 2022-25, bizarrely, we could be in a market where deployment of important energy transition technologies is being held back by energy shortages and metals shortages, which both pull on the demand for coal. This data file screens fifteen of the largest Western coal producers.
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Power-MOSFETs for EV charging: a screen?

This data-file screens companies that make power-MOSFETs, which convert AC grid inputs into safe, fault-free and high-power DC EV charging outputs. Six public leaders have 5-25% market share, suggesting a concentrated industry.
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Wind turbines: screen of resin and polymer specialists?

This data-file tabulates details for 20 companies that make epoxy- or polyurethane resins and adhesives, especially those that feed into the construction of wind turbines. We think there are 5 public companies ex-China with 5-35% exposure to this sub-segment of the wind industry.
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Glass fiber: screen of leading companies?

This data-file aims to provide an overview of the world's largest glass fiber manufacturers, quantifying their market share, and summarizing their offering. Covered companies include China Jushi, Owens Corning, Saint Gobain-Vetrotrex, Johns Manville and smaller Europeans.
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Axial flux motors: leading companies and products?

This data-file profiles leading companies and products in the space of axial flux motors, with an average power density of almost 8kW/kg, which is 10x higher than a typical AC induction motor in heavy industry. Leading companies are profiled, based on reviewing over 1,200 patents.
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Variable frequency drives: leading companies?

This data-file outlines the top twenty companies producing variable frequency drives to precisely control electric motors. The top three companies are European capital goods players. High-quality VFDs may protect against growing competition from China.
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Insulation materials: leading companies?

This data-file profiles a dozen companies that make thermal insulation materials, as 50-75% of all buildings standing today will likely need insulation upgrades on the road to 'net zero', while the pace of progress should be amplified in times of energy shortages.
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Cobalt: leading producers?

Our global decarbonization models burn through the world's entirely terrestrial cobalt resources. Hence this data-file reviews c25 mines around the world, and the resultant positions of 25 global cobalt producers. All cobalt is produced alongside copper or nickel, but some companies are more cobalt-exposed.
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Copper: leading producers?

This data-file is a screen of the world's largest copper miners and producers, covering 16 companies that produce half of all global output. The average company produces around 0.8MTpa, has a 30-year reserve life, and derives 30% of its EBITDA from copper.
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Small-scale wind turbines: leading companies?

This screen compares the offerings of a dozen small-scale wind turbine providers, with power ratings below 30kW, for residential energy generation. Costs range from $1,000-6,000/kW. The three key challenges are performance, relaibility and cost.
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Heat pumps: a screen of providers and reviews?

This data-file tabulates our subjective opinions on c20 different heat pump companies, based on their consumer reviews, pricing, reliability, efficiency, company size, models, integration, and visual/acoustic properties. We conclude heat pumps are opaque and must be selected carefully.
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Transformers: companies and costs?

This data-file aims to tabulate helpful data on the grid-scale transformer industry, covering the sizes (tons), costs ($/kW) and companies in the space. Margin pressure looks challenging, amidst material re-inflation, and a competitive set of capital goods giants and emerging Chinese companies.
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Lithium producers: leading companies?

This data-file captures c20 lithium producers, their output (in kTpa), their size and their recent progress. Eight companies effectively control 90% of global supply. 3 out of 12 earlier-stage companies underwent restructurings in 2020, illustrating risks, but also potential future supply shortages.
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Solar inverters: products, costs and companies?

This data-file tracks leading companies making solar inverters and their products' costs. Costs per watt approximately double for every 10x reduction in inverter size. Chinese manufacturers appear to sell inverters for 30-50% less than Western companies. Some leaders may still have good margins.
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Power-to-liquids: companies commercializing electro-fuels?

This data-file summarizes the details of c15 companies aiming to commercialise low-carbon electro-fuels, using power-to-liquids technologies, and their progress to-date. The average company was founded in 2015, with 5 patents and 15 employees. Although this is skewed towards 3-4 leaders.
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Gas treatment: an overview?

This data-file gives an overview of gas sweetening and treatment processes. The main method is chemical absorption using amines. We estimate that a mid-size facility of 500mmcfd must levy a $0.15/mcf cost and emits 3.5kg/boe to take out c7% H2S and CO2. Other processes are compared.
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Leading companies in biochar?

This screen tabulates details of almost twenty leading companies in the production and commercialization of biochar. The average company was founded in 2012, has 8 employees and 1.2 patents, showing an early-stage and competitive space.
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Next-generation plastics: bio-plastic, bio-degradable, recycled?

This data-file captures 17 plastic products derived from mechanical recycling, biologically-sourced feedstocks or that is bio-degradable. The 'greenest" plastics are c30% lower in CO2 than conventional plastics, but around 2x more costly.
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Companies sequestering CO2 with seaweed or kelp aquaculture?

This screen assesses a dozen companies sequestering CO2 by farming seaweeds and kelp. The area is fast-growing but early-stage. The average company was founded in 2017 and employs 10 people. Commercial products include foods, animal feeds, fertilizers, plastics and even distilled spirits.
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Uranium mining: company screen and market outlook?

We have screened c20 uranium miners, assessing each company's production, reserves, asset base, size and recent news flow. 10 are publicly listed. Our market outlook is that firm uranium supply may be running 25% short of the level required on our roadmap to net zero.
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Autonomous vehicles: technology leaders?

We have screened 25 leading companies in autonomous vehicles (public and private), tabulating their technical progress and proposals for Level 4-5 autonomy. 75% of the companies were founded in the last decade. Leaders are focused on freight, cars, taxis and LiDAR sensing.
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Biofuel technologies: an overview?

Biofuels are currently displacing 3.5Mboed of oil and gas. But they are not carbon-free, and their weighted average CO2 emissions are only c50% lower. This data-file breaks down the biofuels market across seven key feedstocks, to help identify which opportunities can scale for the lowest costs and CO2, versus others that require further technical progress.
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Companies in drones and drone services for construction?

This data-file is a simple screen of companies manufacturing drones and commercializing drone software. It includes 12 private companies and 4 public companies. For each company, we have tabulated their history, geography, number of patent filings and a short description.
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Methanol: leading companies?

This data-file tabulates details of companies in the methanol value chain. For incumbents, we have quantified market shares. For technology providers, we have simply tabulated the numbers of patents filed. For newer, lower-carbon methanol producers, we have compiled a screen to assess leading options.
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Biotech companies to enhance agricultural yields or CO2 uptake?

This screen tracks companies that can improve productivity of agricultural land (so more land is available for reforestation) or increase CO2 uptake rates of plants. It includes large-cap seed and crop protection companies, through to biotech firms, through to indoor farms that achieve 350-400x higher yields per acre.
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Smart Energy: technology leaders?

Smart meters and smart devices are capable of transmitting and receiving real-time consumption data and instructions. This data-file tracks 40 leading companies, mostly at the venture and growth stages. They help lower demand, smooth grid volatility and encourage appliance upgrades.
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Hydrogen reformers: technology leaders

This data-file assesses who has the leading technology for producing industrial hydrogen, but especially blue hydrogen from auto-thermal reformers, after reviewing public disclosures and 750 patents. Companies include Air Liquide, Air Products, Casale, Haldor Topsoe, Johnson Matthey, KBR, Linde, Thyssenkrupp.
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Gas turbines and CHP: technology leaders?

This data-file is profiles 30 leading companies in gas turbines and CHPs, from mega-caps such as GE, Siemens and Mitsubishi, down to small-caps and private companies with exciting new technologies. Case studies are also presented, with details on turbine installations.
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Ventures for an Energy Transition?

This database tabulates c300 venture investments, made by 9 of the leading Oil Majors. Their strategy is increasingly geared to advancing new energies, digital technologies and improving mobility. Different companies are compared and contrasted, including the full list of venture investments over time.
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Super-capacitors: technology leaders?

This data-file screens for the 'top twenty' technology leaders in super-capacitors, by assessing c2,000 Western patents filed since 2013. The screen comprises capital goods conglomerates, materials companies, an Oil Major with exposure and specialist companies improving SC energy density.
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Additive manufacturing: technology leaders?

This data-file tabulates 5,500 patents into additive manufacturing (3D printing), in order to identify technology leaders. Patent filings over time show a sharp acceleration, making AM one of the fastest growth areas for the energy transition.  We profile 14 concentrated specialists, plus broader Cap Goods and Materials companies.
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Leading Companies in Pipeline Gas Technology?

This data-file tracks 800 patents innovating pipeline transportation of natural gas, to screen for exciting technologies and companies. 6 publicly listed firms and 6 venture-stage start-ups stood out from the analysis, commercialising next-generation materials, monitoring methods and optimizing gas distribution.
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Leading Companies in Battery Recycling?

This data-file tracks over 6,000 patents filed into battery recycling technology, escalating at a 15% CAGR since 2000. 18 technology leaders are profiled ex-China, including 6 global, large-cap listed companies and 10 private companies, including some exciting, early-stage concepts to improve material recovery and costs.
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Nature-based CO2 offsets: measuring forest and soil carbon?

This data-file screens twenty companies measuring and verifying nature-based carbon offsets, in forests and soils. It includes 5 leading private companies at the cutting edge. Traditionally cumbersome, manual methodologies have evolved rapidly, towards technology-driven, real-time remote sensing, to enable the scale-up of nature-based CO2 offsets.
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Leading Companies Commercialising Heat Pumps?

Heat pumps can halve the CO2 intensity of residential heating. Hence we have screened for the leading companies, focusing in upon 4,000 Western-centric patents from 2017-19. The space is competitive. 7 public companies and 4 private companies stand out, with concentrated exposure to the theme.
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Screen of Large Public Fertilizer Companies

This data-file screens the large, listed fertilizer companies, comparing their CO2 intensity, ROACE, cash flow and recent patent filings. The industry could be disrupted by the rise of conservation agriculture, eroding thee 186MTpa global fertilizer market, which also comprises c1% of global emissions. 
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Leading Companies in Redox Flow Batteries

We have compiled a database of 25 leading companies in Redox Flow Batteries, by looking across 1,237 patents since 2017. Exciting progress is visible, with technical maturity rapidly progressing, demonstration facilities under construction and a promise of cost-competitive, long-life, energy storage.
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Aerial Vehicles: Which Ones Fly?

We have updated our database of over 100 companies, which have already flown c50 aerial vehicles (aka "flying cars"), to identify the leading contenders. We categorize each vehicle by fuel type, speed, range, fuel economy and credibility. The data strongly imply aerial vehicles taking off in the 2020s.
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Leading Companies in Plastic Pyrolysis?

This data-file assesses the outlook for 30 plastic pyrolysis companies, operating (or constructing) 100 plants around the world, which use chemical processes to turn plastic waste back into oil. The data-file has been updated in 2022, concluding that the industry is 'on track' to realise its potential.
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Blockchain in the Oil & Gas Supply Chain

This datafile tabulates ten examples of deploying Blockchain in the oil and gas industry since 2017; including companies and cost savings. Most prior examples are in trading. For 2020, we are particularly excited by the broadening of Blockchain technologies into the procurement industry, which can deflate shale costs.
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Screen of companies detecting methane leaks?

This data-file screens the methods available to monitor for methane emissions. Notes and metrics are tabulated. Emerging methods, such as drones and trucks are also scored, based on technical trials. The best drones can now detect almost all methane leaks >90% faster than traditional methods. c34 companies at the cutting edge are screened.
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Hybrid horizons: industrial use of batteries?

Gas and diesel engines can be 30-80% less efficient when idling, or running at low loads. This is the rationale for hybridizing engines with backup batteries. Industrial applications are increasing, achieving 30-65% efficiency gains, across multiple industries. In 2018-19, the biggest new horizon has been in oil and gas, including hybrid rigs, supply vessels, construction vessels and even LNG plants.
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Overview of Downstream Catalyst Companies

This data-file tabulates headline details of c35 companies commercialising catalysts for the refining industry, in order to improve conversion efficiencies and lower CO2 emissions. Five early-stage private companies stand out, while we also profile which Majors have recently filed the most patents to improve downstream catalysis.
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Hydrogen opportunities: an overview

We outline the different processes for commercial hydrogen production, including their energy-economics, costs, CO2 emissions, technical readiness and remaining challenges. Our conclusion is that natural gas remains the most viable fuel source on a weighted basis considering cost and carbon emissions.
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CO2 Separation: an overview?

This data-file outlines six leading CO2-separation technologies. For each one, we outline the process, technical maturity, cost, CO2-selectivity, energy-intensity & drawbacks. A >$50/ton carbon price is currently needed to step up CCS. But a major breakthrough is emerging: metal organic frameworks.
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Drones attack military fuel economy?

Swarms of drones are emerging as the most devastating military weapon of the 21st century. This was evidenced by the recent attack on Saudi oil infrastructure. But drones' impact on 0.7Mbpd of global military oil demand could be even more devastating. This data-file quantifies their fuel economy at >1,000 mpge compared to today's fighter jets, tanks, helicopters and planes that achieve
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Make CO2 into valuable products?

What if CO2 was not a waste product, but a valuable commercial feedstock? We have assessed the top 27 companies at the cutting edge, commercialising CO2 into next-generation plastics, foams, concretes, specialty chemicals and agricultural products. Each company is assessed in detail. 13 are particularly exciting. 21 are start-ups. Aramco, Chevron, Repsol also screen well.
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Subsea Robots: the next generation?

Over 20 next-generation subsea robotics concepts are presented. These electric solutions are increasingly autonomous, they reside subsea and can conduct more thorough inspection/intervention work. Inspection is 2-6x faster, and maintenance costs can be halved, yielding savings of $0.5-1/boe at a typical field. The data-file also summarizes the leading Majors and Service Companies in the space.
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Subsea Separation: the elusive history

This database covers all 14 subsea separation projects across the history of the oil industry, going back to the "dawn of subsea" in 1969. The technology has been elusive, with just a handful of applications, the largest of which is 2.3MW. This could change, with the pre-salt partners pioneering an unprecedented 6MW facility at Mero.
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Next-generation nuclear: the cutting edge?

Can next-generation nuclear technologies realistically be factored into long-run forecasts of energy markets or energy-transition? The impacts of nuclear fusion would be vast, and several companies are making exciting progress, but no facility in our sample has yet surpassed TRL6, achieved an "energy gain" or system stability beyond c10 mS - 2mins.
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Leading Companies in DAS?

This data-file quantifies the leading companies in Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), the game-changing technology for enhancing shale and conventional oil industry productivity. Operators are screened from their patents and technical papers. Services are screened based on their size and their technology.
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Our Top Technologies for IMO 2020

We review the top, proprietary technologies that we have seen from analysing patents and technical papers, to capitalise on IMO 2020 sulphur regulation, across the world's leading integrated oil companies.
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LNG Process Technologies — an Overview

This file will give a helpful overview of eight main process technologies, which are used in LNG liquefaction. For each one, we summarise how it works, advantages and disadvantages, plus involved-companies.
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Patent Analysis

Manufacturing methods: an overview?

An of overview of manufacturing methods is given in this data-file. Costs are 70% correlated with energy intensity, ranging from well below 0.3 MWH/ton to well above 7MWH/ton. The lowest cost techniques take place at huge throughput in the mining industry, while the most intricate are used in semi-conductors.
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Energy transition technologies: the pace of progress?

This data-file captures over 250,000 patents (ex-China) to assess the pace of progress in different energy transition technologies, yielding insights into batteries (high activity), autonomous vehicles and additive manufacturing (fastest acceleration), wind and solar (maturing), fuel cells and biofuels (waning) and other technologies.
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One hundred years of innovation: global patent filings from 1920?

This data-file breaks down global patent filings since 1920 across 150 different categories to illustrate the pace of progress. China is now filing 70% of all global patents, which connotes future trade tensions. Western decarbonization policies must promote innovation and competitiveness.
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LNG liquefaction: what challenges and opportunities?

This data-file reviews 40 recent LNG patents, to draw conclusions and identify leading companies. Lowering capex costs matters, but should not be done at the expense of higher opex or emissions. The next generation of modular plants offer a step-change improvement. And new process technologies are also coming through.
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Metal organic frameworks: what challenges and opportunities?

Metal organic frameworks are an exciting class of materials, which could reduce the energy penalties of CO2-separation by c80%, and reduce the cost of carbon capture to $15-30/ton. Based on 2020's patent filings, the key focus is finding MOFs that are stable and water-resistant, then mass manufacturing them.
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Enhanced geothermal: what challenges?

This data-file tabulates the greatest challenges and focus areas for harnessing deep geothermal energy, based on reviewing 30 recent patents from 20 companies in the space. We conclude that recent advances from the unconventional oil and gas industry are going to be a crucial enabler.
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Proton exchange membrane fuel cells: what challenges?

This data-file reviews fifty patents into proton exchange membrane fuel cells, filed by leading companies in the space in 2020, in order to understand the key challenges the industry is striving to overcome. The key focus areas are controlling temperature, humidity and longevity, but unfortunately this will tend to increase costs.
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Solid oxide fuel cells: what challenges?

This data-file reviews fifty patents into solid oxide fuel cells, filed by leading companies in 2020. The key focus areas are improving the longevity and efficiency of SOFCs. But unfortunately, we find many of the proposed solutions are likely to increase end costs. Potential is interesting, but deflation may take longer.
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Electric vehicle charging: what challenges?

We review fifty patents from leading companies in EV charging. Complex algorithms will be required to ensure grid stability. Vehicle-manufacturers are concerned about balancing convenience and costs. While interestingly, "fast charging" does not appear to be a primary focus.
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Solar power: what challenges?

This data-file reviews 70 patents filed by leading solar manufacturers in 2020. We expect double-digit deflation to continue, while solar panels will also gain greater efficiency and longevity. The cutting edge is now in current collectors. Examples and improvements areas are described for each company.
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Hydrogen production via electrolysis: what challenges?

This data-file tabulates challenges for the production of green hydrogen via the electrolysis of water, based on the recent patent literature. Our overall conclusion is to be circumspect. Some sources of deflation compromise efficiency, safety, longevity and reliability.
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Hydrogen production via electrolysis: technology leaders?

This data-file tabulates the pace of progress into developing water electrolysers for green hydrogen production, looking across 13,600 patents globally. Fifteen leading companies are compared and contrasted.
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Floating offshore wind: what challenges?

This data-file ranks the greatest challenges for the floating offshore wind industry, by reviewing 50 recent patents, filed by leading companies. The challenges are relatively immutable. They likely double capex and levelized costs, compared with traditional offshore wind.
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Lithium ion batteries for electric vehicles: what challenges?

This data-file tabulates the greatest challenges for lithium ion batteries in electric vehicles, which have been cited in 2020's patent literature. Conclusions are spelled out in detail, covering energy density, "million mile" longevity and electric semi-trucks. Companies profiled include Tesla, CATL, LG, Sumitomo, et al.
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Vestas: where’s the IP?

This data-file aggregates 2,000 patents filed by Vestas and compares them with 15,000 patents filed by competitors. Although other companies have made headlines with larger turbines, we find Vestas may have an edge overall, particularly in the category of operations, monitoring, maintenance and ensuring turbines' longevity.
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Refinery membranes: where’s the IP?

This data-file reviews over 1,000 patents to identify the technology leaders aiming to use membranes instead of other separation processes (e.g.,  distillation) within refineries. Operational data are also presented for an ExxonMobil breakthrough and Air Products's hydrogen recovery technology.
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Tesla: where’s the IP?

This data-file compiles all of Tesla's patents, classifies them across 1,000 patent families, and describes their innovations. Our conclusion is that Tesla holds less patented IP than rival auto-companies. However, where it has filed patents, it is more focused on pure EV innovations, including recently, big data solutions and improved batteries in 2019-20.
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Phase change materials: technology leaders?

This data file identifies the technology leaders in phase change materials, by compiling a screen of the latest 5,800 patent filings from over 125 companies. We find progress ranging from venture stage firms through to mega-caps.
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Hydrogen vehicles and fuelling stations: where’s the IP?

We cleaned 18,600 patents into hydrogen vehicles and vehicle fuelling stations. Technology leaders include large auto-makers, industrial gas companies, Energy Majors and hydrogen specialists. Overall, the patents indicate the array of challenges that must be solved to scale up hydrogen fuel in transport.
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Battery Patents: Lithium Leaders and New Breakthroughs?

Continued deflation in lithium ion batteries is suggested by a new record of 26,000 patents filed in 2019, hence this data-file identifies the technology leaders. Elsewhere, redox flow batteries patents have doubled since 2014, while interest has been waning in solid state batteries (-57% since 2014) and liquid metal batteries (-67%).
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Autonomous vehicles: where’s the IP?

We screen 37,000 patents into autonomous vehicles, which will likely increase total road travel by c10%. The pace of activity has been rising at a rapid, 37% CAGR. Our data-file notes the most active companies, including tech firms (Denso, MobilEye, TuSimple, Uber, Waymo, Zoox) and auto companies (Ford, GM, Honda, Toyota, Volvo et al).
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Biofuel, green diesel, renewable diesel: where’s the IP?

This data-file tracks 5,000 patents filed into biofuels: by geography, by company and particularly in 2017-20. The pace of research activity has been waning since 2014. Sinopec screens as the technology leader. The data-file also identifies the 'Top Ten' Western companies, ranked by recent patent filings.
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Fiber Optic Cables: Patents and Leading Companies?

This data-file screens for the technology leaders in fiber-optic cables, which are crucial for the digitization of industries and the world's structural shift towards remote-working, based on screening 37,000 patents. Revenues and market shares are summarized for the leaders.
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Hydraulic Fracturing: where’s the IP?

This data-file tracks 17,000 hydraulic fracturing patents filed by geography, by company, by year, since 2010. 2020 has slowed by 6% from peak, with a c36% US slowdown masked by a 33% Chinese expansion. Remarkably, in 2019, the leading Chinese Major filed more patents than the leading US Service provider. The full data-file ranks the companies.
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Solar Energy: Where’s the IP?

We have tabulated 110,000 solar patents. Research peaked in 2012-13, at 11,500 patents/year. It since slowed to c6,000/year. Yet Chinese companies have ramped up to 50% of all the filings, and now comprise 14 out of 2019's top 25 solar patent filers. Majors' patents comprise c0.5% of the total, with one SuperMajor clearly leading.
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Offshore Wind Patents: Majors and Services?

This data-file tracks 20 traditional energy companies' offshore wind patents. Majors and Oil Services generally do not have differentiated wind IP, comprising c2% of offshore wind patents since 2000. 2 Majors and 2 Service companies are identified, however, which are making interesting inroads.
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Fuel Cell Patents: twenty years of progress?

This data-file tabulates the numbers of patents filed into different types of fuel-cells, from 2000-2020, globally and in key geographies: China, Japan, Korea and the US. Research activity peaked in 2008 and has since fallen by 30%. Japanese research has collapsed, while China's has ascended.
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Subsea Services: Patent Leaders?

This data-file captures all the subsea patents from ten of the largest service providers. Priorities have shifted since the oil downturn. The data show who is most innovative and who is best placed, by category. Clear leadership is seen in subsea pumps, wellheads, or umbilicals. Other areas are more competitive.
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Heliogen: concentrated solar breakthrough?

Heliogen has set a new record for concentrated solar power in 2019, generating >1,000C temperatures from an array of c370 hexagonal mirrors, which are precisely controlled using computer vision. This is almost 2x traditional CSP plants. Hence this data-file reviews 21 of Heliogen's patents, finding impressive innovations and ultimate costs.
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Upgrading Catalysts: lower refinery temperatures and pressures?

Refineries are CO2-intensive, as their average process takes place at 450C. But improved catalysts can help, based on reviewing over 50 patents from leading energy Majors, and their requisite temperatures and pressures. Combining all the best-in-class new catalysts, we think the average refinery could save 5kg/bbl of CO2 intensity.
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At the cutting edge of EOR?

This data-file summarises 120 patents into Enhanced Oil Recovery, filed by the leading Oil Majors in 2018. Hence, we can identify clear leaders in EOR technology, and what they are doing at the cutting edge, to improve recovery and lower decline rates. As the world's oilfields age, leading EOR technology will help avoid the higher costs and CO2 intensities of developing new fields to replace them.
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Lubricant Leaders: our top five conclusions

We present our "top five" conclusions on the lubricants industry, after reviewing 240 patents, filed by Oil Majors in 2018. We are most impressed by the intense pace of activity to improve engine efficiencies. Technology will drive margins and market shares, hence three clear market leaders are identified. The relative number of patents into Electric Vehicle Lubricants is also revealing, showing the Majors' true attitudes on electrification.
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The cutting edge of shale technology?

This data-file reviews 950 technical papers from the shale industry in 2018-2020, to identify the cutting edge of shale technology. The trends show an incredible uptick in completion design, frac fluids, EOR and machine learning. Each paper is summarized and categorized. The file also shows which companies and services have a technology edge.
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TOTAL’s Plastic-Recycling Progress?

TOTAL is currently pioneering the greatest advances in plastic-recycling technologies among the Majors, based on our database of 3,000 patents. This data-file covers its comprehensive inter-mixing of chromium-catalysed polyethylene, to reduce defects and increase the strength of post-consumer resins. In turn, this extends their use to films, containers and pipes.
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Well-by-well optimisation?

Well-by-well production optimisation can uplift mature fields' output 5-20%. This data-file summarises the methodology employed by BP, which has filed the most detailed patent we have seen on the topic, from our screen of 3,000 patents around the industry.
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Deploying the Digital Twin

This data-file tabulates 36 recent technical papers into "digital twins" since 2017, in order to understand how the technology is being deployed around the upstream oil and gas industry: principally to improve platform uptime, prevent rig downtime and inspect subsea infrastructure.
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Major technologies to decarbonise power?

Oil Majors will play a crucial role in decarbonising the energy system, while also securing the future of fossil fuels. Hence, to help identify the leading companies, this-data file summarises over 80 patents for de-carbonising power-generation, drawn from our database of over 3,000 patent-filings from the largest energy companies in 2018.
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Inflow Control: Our Top 20 Papers from 2019

This data-file summarises twenty recent papers using inflow control devices: an exciting digital technology to optimise horizontal wells by limiting production from zones that are susceptible to flowing water or gas. Each paper is categorized by company, country, field and focus. Also included are our 'Top 10' facts from the technical literature. 
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DAS. At the cutting edge in shale?

This data-file summarises 25 of the most recent technical papers around the industry, using fiber-optic cables for Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS). The technology is now hitting critical mass to spur shale productivity upwards.
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Solar Innovation at Big Oil?

We reviewed 37 distinct solar patents filed across the Oil Majors in 2018. Three 'leaders' stood out, each pursuing a different technology strategy.
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Technology Breakthroughs?

TSE Patent Assessments: a summary?

This data-file aggregates all of our patent assessments into a single reference file, so different companies' scores can be compared and contrasted. Our average score is 2.5 out of 5.0. Skew is to the downside. Intelligibility is the biggest challenge. Scores correlate with TRL and revenues.
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Tigercat: forestry and timber innovations?

Tigercat is a private company, founded in 1992, headquartered in Ontario, Canada, with c2,000 employees. The company produces specialized machinery for forestry, logging, materials processing and off-road equipment. Our patent review has found a moat around reliable, easy-to-maintain, mobile and efficient forestry equipment.
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Agilyx: plastic recycling breakthrough?

This data-file is a review of Agilyx's plastic recycling technology, after assessing the company's patents on our usual framework. We conclude that Agilyx has developed a novel and data-driven process, to remove challenging contaminants from feedstocks. Although it may involve higher complexity, higher reagent opex, and some challenges cannot entirely be de-risked from the patents.
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Sentient Energy: smart grid breakthrough?

This data-file is a technology review for Sentient Energy, assessing innovations in smart grids. Its technology can achieve energy savings via a combination of "Conservation Voltage Reduction" and "Volt-VAR optimization at the grid edge". This also helps to integrate more solar and EV charging into power grids. We explain the technology.
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Powin: grid-scale battery breakthrough?

Powin commercializes energy storage hardware and software. Its LFP battery system is 30% more compact than peers, at 200 MWH/acre, and modular, meaning it may be 50% faster to install. Our patent review finds a moat around specific process improvements, to help back up the short-term volatility of solar and wind.
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X Energy: nuclear fuel breakthrough?

X-Energy is a next-generation nuclear company, progressing a demonstration project in Washington State, due to start up in 2027. The key innovation is using TRISO fuels, whose manufacturing is locked up with a concentrated patent library. Long-term costs are suggested at 6c/kWh.
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Prysmian: power cable technology breakthroughs?

Prysmian scores well on our patent assessment framework. We conclude an array of incremental improvements and industry specializations confer a partial moat and helps to de-risk future installation work.
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Nostromo: thermal energy storage breakthrough?

Nostromo is commercializing a thermal energy storage system, for commercial buildings in hot climates, where AC can comprise 40-70% of total energy use. It scores highly on our patent framework and can be an interesting alternative to lithium batteries.
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PureCycle: polypropylene recycling breakthrough?

PureCycle was founded in 2015, went public via SPAC in 2021 and aims to recycle waste polypropylene into virgin-like polypropylene saving 79% of the usual input energy and 35% of the input CO2. Despite recent controversies, our PureCycle technology review is able to de-risk several ambitions.
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Aurubis: copper recycling breakthrough?

Aurubis produces copper products from 1MTpa of recycled materials and 2.25MTpa of concetrates. Energy use and CO2 emissions are two-thirds lower than primary copper production. Our technology review finds a partial moat.
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TerraPower: nuclear breakthrough?

TerraPower is one of the most active next-generation nuclear companies, with funding from Bill Gates, and 600 engineers working towards the first, 345MWe Natrium reactor before 2030. We could not entirely de-risk a "breakthrough" due to the breadth and novelty of its patents.
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24M: semi-solid battery breakthrough?

Semi-solid electrodes are aimed at "dramatically reducing" costs of lithium ion batteries, with 70-100% higher energy density, plus better safety and reliability, for use in battery storage and electric vehicles. 24M has a moat and is licensing technology to Freyr and Volkswagen.
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Nexwafe: PV silicon breakthrough?

Nexwafe is growing standalone silicon wafers on mono-crystalline seed wafers, with no need to slice ingots. It should improve solar efficiency, materials intensity and CO2 intensity. Our technology review found 60 patent filings and can partly de-risk growth ambitions.
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Terrestrial Energy: small modular reactor breakthrough?

Terrestrial Energy is a next-generation nuclear fission company, aiming to build a small modular reactor: specifically a 2 x 195MWe Integral Molten Salt Reactor with ultimate costs below $3,000/kWe, yielding levelized costs of 5-7c/kWh. 80 patents lock up 8 core innovations in a high-quality library that helps de-risk the potential.
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Albemarle: lithium, bromine, catalyst improvements?

Albemarle is a specialty chemicals company.  Our patent screen de-risks incremental improvements in novel fire-proofing bromine compositions, further and better lithium pathways, and longer-lasting catalysts for cleaner fuels. Overall we think 70% of the patents are for technologies that will advance the energy transition in some way.
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General Fusion: magnetized fusion breakthrough?

General Fusion is developing a magnetized target fusion reactor, compressing plasma via high-pressure pistons. It hopes to commercialize 100-200MWe fusion reactors with 5-6.5c/kWh levelized costs of electricity in the late 2020s. Our patent de-risks several innovations. Although complexity is high and we note four residual risks for the technology.
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Tricoya: engineered wood breakthrough?

Tricoya is an engineered wood product like MDF, but it has been "acetylated", in order to confer >50-year longevity, even when exposed to the elements. Accsys Technologies is the parent company listed on AIM and Euronext Amsterdam. This data-file reviews its technology and patent library.
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CATL: sodium ion battery breakthrough?

CATL produces one-third of the world's lithium ion batteries. Its patents have warned of devastating lithium shortages since at least 2016. Hence in 2021, it announced it would produce commercial sodium-ion batteries by 2023. The technical challenges are captured in its patent library. We cannot fully de-risk its 2023 target.
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First Solar: thin film solar breakthrough?

First Solar is a solar manufacturer with capacity to produce 8GW of solar panels per year, using CdTe thin film technology. It has production in the US and uses 60% less energy than photovoltaic silicon. Efficiency is interesting. It is usually lower for CdTe than c-Si, but 70% of First Solar's patents target improvements.
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Stora Enso: next-generation packaging breakthrough?

Stora Enso is a pulp, paper and forestry products business, headquartered in Finland, with €10bn per year of revenues. It argues "everything made from fossil-based materials today can be made from a tree tomorrow". Our patent screen finds a strong focus on sustainable packaging solutions, especially Microfibrillated Cellulose (MFC). 
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Svante: CCS breakthrough?

Svante is suggesting its technology can absorb 90% of CO2 in a 60-second cycle that costs 50% less than conventional CCS. It has attracted an amazing list of investors and partners. Agonizingly we could not de-risk the technology based on our usual patent review.
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Commonwealth Fusion: nuclear fusion breakthrough?

Our patent review found CFS to have a high-quality patent library, of specific, intelligible, commercially-minded innovations to densify the magnets that would confine plasma in a tokamak for nuclear fusion. Specific details, and minor hesitations are in the data-file. 
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ESS: redox flow battery breakthrough?

ESS is emerging as a leader in medium-duration energy storage (4-12 hours), with an iron flow battery costing 2-5c/kWh (assuming >daily cycling) and lasting 20,000 cycles. The patent library is high quality. We note five challenges to consider. The largest is round-trip efficiency.
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NuScale: small modular reactor breakthrough?

NuScale is developing a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR), producing 77MWe of power. It is the first SMR design to win US regulatory approval and the first plant is being built in Romania for 2028. NuScale's patents scored well on our framework.
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CarbonCure: concrete breakthrough?

CarbonCure injects CO2 into concrete during the mixing process, where it mineralizes. The resultant product can most likely save 4-6% of the CO2 intensity of finished concrete. Question marks are explored in the data-file.
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SolarEdge: solar-electronics breakthrough?

SolarEdge specializes in the power-electronics needed to use solar energy in practical power systems. Our patent review finds a good, but broad array of incremental improvements. They suggest a vast future market in solar-battery energy systems.
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Aspen Aerogels: insulation breakthrough?

Aerogels have thermal conductivities that are 50-80% below conventional insulators. Target markets include preventing thermal runaway in electric vehicle batteries and cryogenic industrial processes (e.g., LNG). This data-file notes some challenges, using our usual patent review framework. 
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Solid power: solid state battery breakthrough?

Solid Power is developing solid-state batteries, using sulphide electrolytes. Ambitious goals include >500 miles of EV range (50-100% more than today's lithium ion batteries), 2x higher life-spans and costs as low as $85/kWh. The company is going public via SPAC, valued at $1.2bn, and has an exceptional list of backers.  
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Carbon Clean: CCS breakthrough?

Carbon Clean is a CCS company. It has already captured over 1MT, across 38 facilities. But in addition, it is developing a next-generation design, which could ultimately lower cost to $30-40/ton. Our review finds a very decent, albeit concentrated patent library, following our usual framework.
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Monolith: turquoise hydrogen breakthrough?

Monolith claims it is the "only producer of cost effective commercially viable clean hydrogen today" as it has developed a proprietary technology for methane pyrolysis. But overall this was not one of our most successful patent screens. Some specific question marks are noted in the data-file.  
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Shoals: solar-electronic breakthrough?

Shoals Technologies Group manufactures electrical balance of system solutions for solar energy projects, focused on promoting reliability, safety and ease of installation. Electrical installation costs can be lowered 40%. Our patent review finds a technology moat on 35% EBITDA margins.
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ChargePoint: electric vehicle charging edge?

ChargePoint is the leading provider of Level 2 EV charging stations in the US and aims to help electrify mobility and freignt. Our review finds a library of simple, clear, specific and easy-to-understand patents. More debatable are the technology edge and future IP defensability.
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Form Energy: long-duration battery breakthrough?

Form Energy is aiming to commercialize a metal-air battery, for long-duration energy storage, using only safe and Earth-abundant materials. The first 1MW/150MWH system could be deployed by 2023. Compared to other patent libraries, we have found it harder to de-risk Form's technology.
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Lilac solutions: lithium breakthrough?

Lilac Solutions aims to commercialize a lithium ion exchange technology, which can extract lithium from dilute brine solutions, rapidly, economically and scalably. Overall Lilac's patents look promising to us.  They contain some excellent, precise and intelligible details on making ion exchange materials.
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Siemens Gamesa: giant wind turbine breakthroughs?

Siemens Gamesa is a leader in offshore wind, pushing the boundaries towards a 14MW turbine with an incredible 222m rotor diameter. Our main debate from reviewing its patents is whether the engineering challenges of large turbines is consistent with deflation expectations.
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Stem: grid-scale battery breakthrough?

Stem Inc. went public via SPAC in April-2021, supporting grid-scale batteries with optimization software, which can lower energy bills by 10-30% in the energy transition. Its patents scored reasonably well on our usual framework. Managing short-term renewables volatility was a crucial focus.
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Array Technologies: solar tracking breakthrough?

Array Technologies IPO-ed in October-2020. It manufactures solar tracking systems, supporting 25% of US solar modules installed to date. Its systems can uplift solar generation by 5-25%. we found clear, specific, intelligible patents, back-stopping six out of seven key strengths that have been cited by the company.
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Carbios: plastic recycling breakthrough?

Carbios has developed an enyzmatic process to recycle 90% of PET within 10-hours, which has been described in Nature. "This highly efficient, optimized enzyme outperforms all PET hydrolases reported so far". Economics and CO2 savings can be very exciting. But our work identifies four challenges, which were hard to re-risk.
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Climeworks: direct air capture breakthrough?

Climeworks is a Swiss company, founded in 2009, commercializing a direct air capture technology. The main innovation in its patents optimizes air flow, to avoid steep pressure drops, which can otherwise de-rail DAC economics. But we are still unable to de-risk sub-$200/ton CO2 costs based on reviewing the patents.  
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Danimer: bio-plastics breakthrough?

Danimer Scientific is a producer of PHA, a biodegradable plastic feedstock. PHA still has commercial challenges in its processing, mechanical properties and 4-5x higher costs than conventional plastics. Yet our patent review finds Danimer has made some specific, intelligible innovations, earning a solid score of 3.5 on our technology framework.
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Nio: EV-charging breakthrough?

Nio is a listed, electric vehicle manufacturer, headquartered in Shanghai. It operates over 200 "battery swap" stations, and the 2-millionth battery swap was completed in March-2021, with swap times soon falling to 3-minutes. Our patent analysis suggests a genuine moat in swappable batteries, which could only have been built up by an auto-maker. 
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LanzaTech: biofuels breakthrough?

LanzaTech aspires to "take waste carbon emissions and convert them" into sustainable fuels (and bio-plastics) with a >70% CO2 reduction. We have assessed its patents but concluded we cannot yet de-risk the CO2-to-fuels pathway in our energy transition models.
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Origin Materials: bio-plastics breakthrough?

Origin Materials went public via SPAC in February-2021, as it was acquired by Artius Acquisition Inc at a valuation of $1.8bn. Its ambition is to use wood residues to create carbon-negative plastics, cost-competitively with petroleum products. This data-file outlines our conclusions from reviewing patents.
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Enovix: battery breakthrough?

Enovix has developed a 3D silicon lithium-ion battery, 5-years ahead of the broader industry, with 2x higher energy density. The company went public via SPAC in February-2021, with an implied post-deal valuation of $1.12bn. This data-file assesses its technology breakthroughs.
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StoreDot: battery breakthrough?

StoreDot is developing "extreme fast-charging" batteries for electric vehicles, using a proprietary range of nanomaterial additives. It claims prototype cells can charge 5-6x faster than conventional lithium ion. This data-file assesses StoreDot patents from 2019-20, looking to de-mystify its breakthroughs.
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Quantumscape: battery breakthrough?

This data-file reviews 25 of QuantumScape's 2019-20 patents, in order to substantiate its claims of a solid-state battery than can achieve c50-100% higher energy density than conventional lithium ion batteries, 3x faster charging, while also surviving hundreds of charge-discharge cycles without degradation.
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CO2 Screening

Refrigerants: leading chemicals for the rise of heat pumps?

This data-file is a breakdown of c1MTpa of refrigerants used in the recent past for cooling, across refrigerators, air conditioners, in vehicles, industrial chillers, and increasingly, heat pumps. The market is shifting rapidly towards lower-carbon products, including HFOs, propane, iso-butane and even CO2 itself. We still see fluorinated chemicals markets tightening.
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Solar: energy payback and embedded energy?

What is the energy payback and embedded energy of solar? We have aggregated the consumption of 10 different materials (in kg/kW) and around 10 other energy-consuming line-items (in kWh/kW). Our base case estimate is 2.5 MWH/kWe of solar and an energy payback of 1.5-years. Numbers and sensitivities can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Crop production: how much does nitrogen fertilizer increase yields?

How much does fertilizer increase crop yields? Aggregating all of the global data, a good rule of thumb is that up to 200kg of nitrogen can be applied per acre, increasing corn crop yields from 60 bushels per acre (with no fertilizer) to 160 bushels per acre (at 200 kg/acre). But the relationship is logarithmic, with diminishing returns.
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Coal grades: what CO2 intensity?

The CO2 intensity of coal is estimated at 0.37kg/kWh of thermal energy, at a typical coal grade comprising 63% carbon and 6,250 kWh/ton of energy content. This is the average across 25 samples in our data-file, while moisture, ash and sulphur are also appraised. Coal is 2x more CO2 intensive than natural gas.
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Crop production: what CO2 intensity?

The CO2 intensity of producing corn averages 0.23 tons/ton, or 75kg/boe. 50% is from N2O emissions, a powerful greenhouse gas, from the breakdown of nitrogen fertilizer. Producing 1 kWh of food energy requires 9 kWh of fossil energy.
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CO2 intensity: Scope 1, 2 & 3 and Scope 4 emissions?

Scope 4 CO2 emissions capture the CO2 that is avoided by use of a product. Many energy investments with positive Scope 1-3 emissions have deeply negative Scope 1-4 emissions. Numbers are quantified and may offer a more constructive approach to decarbonization investments.
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Palm oil: what CO2 intensity?

Global palm oil production runs at 80MTpa, for food, HPC and bio-fuels. Carbon intensity is 1.2 tons CO2e per ton of crude palm oil, excluding land use impacts, and 8.0 tons/ton on a global basis including land use impacts. This means once a bio-fuel has more than c35% palm oil in its feedstock, it is likely to be higher carbon than conventional diesel.
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CO2 intensity of wood: context by context?

This data-file calculates the CO2 intensity of wood in the energy transition. Context matters, and can sway the net climate impacts from -2 tons of emissions reductions per ton of wood through to +2 tons of incremental emissions per ton of wood. Calculations can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Decarbonization targets: what do the data tell us?

630 companies have now pledged to reach some variant of net zero by early-2022. The average year for this ambition is 2044. Although it varies by sector. 50% of companies are including some Scope 3 emissions in their definitions. This data-file presents our conclusions by sector.
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US industrial furnaces: breakdown by size, by industry, by fuel?

There are 1,500 industrial furnaces in the US manufacturing sector, with average capacity of 60MWth, c90% powered by natural gas, and thus explaining over 3.5 bcfd of US gas demand (4-5% of total). This is an unbelievably complex landscape, but we have captured as much facility-by-facility data as possible.
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CO2 capture: a cost curve?

This data-file summarizes the costs of capturing CO2. The lowest-cost options are to access pure CO2 streams that are simply being vented at present. Next are blue hydrogen, steel and cement, which could each have GTpa scale. Power stations place next, at $60-100/ton. DAC is carbon negative but expensive.
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Cost and CO2 intensity of home cooking technologies?

The most important determinant of cooking's CO2 intensity is consumer behaviour. At today's energy costs and grid mix, gas-fired cooking yields the lowest costs. Sometimes electrification of cooking will decrease CO2 and sometimes not. Electric induction is most efficient, but 2-3x more expensive than gas and electric hobs.
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Industrial heating technologies: an overview?

This data-file summarizes over a dozen industrial heating technologies, including their temperatures, efficiency, advantages and challenges. Generally 90% of incoming energy can be converted to industrial process heat and c40% achieves useful exergetic output. But ranges very broadly from 10-90%.
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Construction materials: a screen of costs and CO2 intensities?

This data-file calculates the costs, the embedded energy and the embedded CO2 of different construction materials, both during their production and for ongoing heating and cooling. Insulated wood and cross-laminated timber have the lowest CO2 intensities and can be extremely cost competitive.
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US Refiners: CO2 cost curve?

Which refiners have the lowest, and the highest CO2 emissions? To assess this, we have aggregated data on 130 US refineries, from EPA regulatory disclosures. The average US refinery emitted 32kg of CO2 per bbl of throughputs in 2019. Leading companies screen >10% better than average. Others fare 20-50% worse.
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Blue carbon: how much degradation and CO2 emission?

This data-file illustrates the outsized contribution of blue carbon ecosystems in the carbon cycle, looking across mangroves, tidal marshes, sea grasses and peat bogs. Degradation of blue carbon ecosystems continues with vast CO2 consequences, comparable to the entire global cement industry.
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CO2 concentrations in industrial exhaust streams?

The aim of this data-file is to compile CO2 concentrations in industrial exhaust streams, as a molar percentage of flue gas. This matters for the costs of CO2 separation. Most promising CCS candidates are bio-ethanol plants, industrial hydrogen production and some gas processing, followed by cement and steel plants.
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A breakdown of US energy consumption per person per year

The average American consumes 36MWH of energy each year, emits 20 tons of CO2, spends $2,000 directly on energy (6% of income) and $4,500 including the energy embedded in goods and services (15% of income). A CO2 price of $75/ton may fully decarbonize the US but would absorb another 5% of average income.
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Gas Pipelines: how much energy, CO2 and methane leaks?

This file aggregates data for 40 major US gas pipelines which transport 45TCF of gas each year over 185,000 miles; and for 3,200 compressors at 640 related compressor stations. Hence, we can calculate the CO2 intensity (in kg/mcf-mile) and methane leak rates (in %) for different midstream companies and the overall US gas industry.
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CO2 of metal components: conventional vs additive manufacturing?

Manufacturing metal components can be extremely energy intensive, as 60-95% of original materials are often machined away. Additive manufacturing is thus able to deliver c65% CO2 savings per kg of materials in our base case. This data-file quantifies the CO2 savings based on input variables and technical papers.
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CO2-Cured Concrete: Solidia vs traditional cement?

CO2-cured concrete has c60% lower emissions than traditional concrete, whichis the most widely used construction material on the planet, comprising 4bn tons of annual CO2 emissions, or 8% of the global total. This data-file profiles the CO2 and economic costs of Solidia versus traditional cement, to size the opportunity.
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US ethanol plants: what CO2 intensity?

US bioethanol plants produce 1Mbpd of liquid fuels, with an average CO2 intensity of 85kg/boe. Overall, corn-based bioethanol has c40% lower CO2 than oil products. We screened the leaders and laggards by CO2-intensity, covering Poet, Valero, Great Plains, Koch, Marathon and White Energy.
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Coal industry CO2 per ton

Producing a ton of coal typically emits 0.19T of CO2, equivalent to 50kg/boe. The numbers comprise mining, methane leaks and transportation. Hence domestic coal production will tend to emit 2x more CO2 than gas production, plus c2x more CO2 in combustion. However, numbers vary widely based on input assumptions, such as methane lakage rates, btu content and transportation distances, which can be flexed in the model.  
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Methane emissions from pneumatic devices, by operator, by basin

Methane leaks from 1M pneumatic devices across the US onshore oil and gas industry comprise 50% of all US upstream methane leaks and 20% of upstream CO2. This file aggregates the data. Rankings reveal operators with a pressing priority to replace >100,000 medium and high bleed devices, and other best-in-class companies.
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CO2 from plastics and petrochemical facilities?

This data-file calculates the CO2 intensity of producing plastics, based on emissions data from over 20 US petrochemical facilities. We find plastic packaging should tend to be c90% lower-CO2 than glass. Efficiency is improved by larger, integrated crackers and petrochemical plants.
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Platform supply vessels: what contribution to CO2?

This data-file calculates the contribution of Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs) to an oil and gas asset's emissions. Our base case estimate is 0.1kg/boe for a productive asset in a well-developed basin. Numbers rise 4x in a remote basin, and by another c4x for smaller fields. 1kg/boe is possible. These emissions can be lowered by 10-20% through by LNG-fuelling or battery-hybridization.
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Oil Sands CO2 Intensity

This data-file quantifies the CO2 intensity of oil sands mining and SAGD, line by line, based on real-world data. We also derive a CO2 curve ranking c2.5Mbpd of production across Alberta, to compare different operators. Steam-oil-ratios explain c60% of the variance in SAGD assets' emissions.
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US CO2 and Methane Intensity by Basin

CO2 and methane intensities are tabulated for 300 assets across 9 basins, to rank the Permian, Bakken, GoM, Alaska, Marcellus, et al; and estimate total CO2 emissions (per barrel) and methane leakage rates across the upstream US oil and gas industry. It is also possible to rank the best companies in each basin, using the granular data.
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Methane Leaks from Downstream Gas Distribution

Methane leakages average 0.2% when distributing natural gas to end-customers, across the US's 160 retail gas networks. Leakages are most correlated with the share of sales to smaller customers. 80 distinct gas companies are ranked in this data-file. State-owned utilities appear to have 2x higher leakage rates versus public companies.
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CO2 emissions from Permian shale production

This model disaggregates the CO2 emissions of producing shale oil, across 14 different contributors: such as materials, drilling, fracturing, supply chain, lifting, processing, methane leaks and flaring. CO2 intensity can be flexed by changing the input assumptions. Our 'idealized shale' scenario follows in a separate tab, showing how Permian shale production could become 'carbon neutral'.
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Methane emissions detract from natural gas?

With methane emissions fully controlled, burning gas is c60% lower-CO2 than burning coal. However, taking natural gas to cause 120x more warming than CO2 over a short timeframe, the crossover (where coal emissions and gas emissions are equivalent) is 4% methane intensity. The gas industry must work to mitigate methane.
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Gas Gathering: how much CO2 and Methane?

Gas gathering and gas processing are 50% less CO2 intensive than oil refining. Nevertheless, these processes emitted 18kg of CO2e per boe in 2018. Methane matters most, explaining 7kg/boe of gas industry CO2-equivalents. This data-file assesses 850 US gas gathering and processing facilities, to screen for leaders and laggards, by geography and by operator.
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CO2 Intensity of Oilfield Supply Chains

What is more CO2-intensive: the c4,000 truck trips needed to complete a shale well, or giant offshore service vessels (OSVs), which each consume >100bpd of fuel? This data-file quantifies the CO2 intensity of supply-chains, for 10 different resource types, as a function of 30 input variables.
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Permian CO2 Emissions by Producer

This data-file tabulates Permian CO2 intensity, based on regulatory disclosures from 20 of the leading producers to the EPA. The data are disaggregated by company, across 18 different categories, such as combustion, flaring, venting, pneumatics, storage tanks and methane leaks. There are opportunities to lower emissions.
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CO2 Intensity of Drilling Oil Wells?

This data-file estimates the CO2 intensity of drilling oil wells, based on the fuel consumption of different rig types. Drilling wells is not the largest portion of the oil industry's total CO2 intensity. Nevertheless there is a 50x spread between the best barrels at prolific onshore fields and the worst barrels at mature deepwater assets.
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Carbon Costs of IMO 2020?

CO2 intensity of oil refineries could rise by 20% due to IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, if all high-sulphur fuel oil is upgraded into low-sulphur diesel, we estimate. The drivers are an extra stage of cracking, plus higher-temperature hydrotreating, which will also increase hydrogen demands. This one change could undo 30-years of efficiency gains.
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US Refining: energy and CO2 intensity

Emissions of refining a barrel of crude in the US has fallen at a 0.5% CAGR over the past c30-years, from 36kg/boe in 1986 to 31kg/boe in 2018. US refineries are also increasingly fueled by natural gas and merchant steam, while own use of oil, coal and oil products have been phased out.
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Development Concepts: how much CO2?

We tabulate c25 oil projects, breaking down the total tons of steel and concrete used in their topsides, jackets, hulls, wells, SURF and pipelines. Infill wells, tiebacks and FPSOs make the most CO2-efficient use of construction materials per barrel of production, helping to minimise emissions. Fixed leg platforms are higher CO2, then gravity based structures, then FLNG, and finally offshore wind.
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ESP Optimisation Opportunities?

This data-file calculates the financial and carbon costs of running electric submersible pumps (ESPs) at oilfields. They are material, with ESPs fitted on 15-20% of the world's c1M wells. However, we find opportunities to save >25% of CO2 emissions switching ESPs to run on gas and renewables, and a further 25-50% through optimisation initiatives.
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Global Flaring Intensity by Country

This data-file tabulates global flaring intensity in 16 countries of interest. Flaring intensity has reduced by 20% in the past quarter century, to 0.2mcf/bbl, but total flaring remains 13% higher in absolute terms, at 340MTpa of CO2. Leaders and laggard are charted. LNG developments have a clear, positive role in flaring reductions.
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Further Data Downloads

Cable installation vessels: costs and operating parameters?

This is a database of cable installation vessels for offshore wind and power transmission; tabulating costs (in $M), contract awards (in $/km), capacity (in tons), installation speeds (in meters per hour), power ratings (in MW), crew sizes and positioning systems. There is a paradox over costs.
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Nuclear life extensions: costs and case studies?

What are the costs of nuclear life extensions and capacity upratings? This data-file has reviewed 25 examples, from past projects and technical papers. The average nuclear life extension costs around $650/kW to extend a nuclear plant's life by 20-years, or around $30/kW-year.
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Energy of rotation: angular momentum, inertia and flywheels?

This data-file calculates the energy stored in rotating masses. This includes 50Wh - 100 kWh flywheels. In power grids, the angular momentum of large rotating generators is known as 'inertia' and can run from 30kWh to 30MWH per turbine. Inertia has historically been a crucial part of stabilizing grids. Hence how do the physics work? And how is the energy of a rotating object calculated?
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Energy demand: making predictions about the future?

How accurate are predictions about future global energy demand? The error of the estimate for forecasting oil demand has run at 0.6% per year. Challenges of predicting future energy demand are an argument for targeting ample spare capacity in the global energy system.
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Energy history: how much wood can be cut in a day?

How much wood can be cut in a day? We review 500-years of industrial history. In medieval times, a manorial tenant might have gathered 250kg of fallen branches in a day. A modern feller-buncher is 150x more productive. But a modern energy analyst is little better than a medieval peasant, and harvesting wood as a heating fuel is expensive, inconvenient and risk-prone.
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Building automation: energy savings, KNX case studies and companies?

High-quality building automation typically saves 30-40% of the energy needed for lighting, heating and cooling a building. This matters amidst energy shortages, and reduces payback times on $100-500k up-front capex. This data-file aggregates case studies of KNX energy savings, and screens 70 companies, from Capital Goods giants to private pure-plays.
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How do commodities perform during recessions?

How do commodities perform in recessions? Industrial metals are usually hit hardest, falling 35% peak-to-trough. Energy price spikes partly cause two-thirds of recessions, then typically trade back to pre-recession levels. Precious metals, mainly gold, tend to appreciate in financial crises. Data are compiled in this file, across recessions back to 1970.
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CH4 context: the largest methane leaks of all time?

Global methane emissions run to 360MTpa. 40% is agriculture, 40% is the energy industry and 20% is landfills. Within energy, over 30% of the leaks are from coal, 30% are from oil, 27% are from gas. This short note quantifies some of the largest methane leaks of all time, and provides context for the recent Nord Stream disaster.
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Eaton: breakdown of revenues by product category?

Eaton is a power-electronics super-giant, listed in the US, employing 86,000 people, generating $20bn per year of revenues. We have aimed to guess how $20bn pa of net sales is distributed across 200 different product categories. 75% is exposed to power-electronics, with tailwinds in the energy transition.
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Heating-melting: how much energy is needed?

How do we quantify the minimum energy needed to heat materials and melt materials? This data-file calculates values, in kWh/ton, from first principles, based on target temperatures, specific heat capacities and latent heat capacities. A good rule of thumb is 25 kWh of useful energy to heat each ton of material by each 100ºC.
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Battery degradation: what causes capacity fade?

Lithium ion battery degradation rates vary 2-20% per 1,000 cycles. And lithium ion batteries last from 500 - 20,000 cycles. We have aggregated 7M data-points from laboratory tests, in order to quantify what drives battery degradation. LFP chemistry, low C-rates, stable temperatures and limited cycling all help.
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Supercapacitors: case studies for renewable-heavy grids?

Supercapacitors are well suited to smoothing short-term volatility in increasingly renewables-heavy grids. Typical systems are 10kW-10MW, 1M chage-discharge cycles, 5-30 seconds storage and $30/kW costs. Expect the market to surprise to the upside, especially in combination with other power-electronics. Who benefits?
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Wind volatility: second by second output data?

We have evaluated the second-by-second data on the power output of a 25MW onshore wind farm in Germany. A typical day sees 75 volatility events. Compared to solar, wind power drops slightly less frequently, but more extensively (often >90%) and for longer (often several hours or days). Both wind and solar show high short-term volatility.
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Solar volatility: second by second output data?

We have aggregated the volatility and power drops across an entire year of second-by-second solar data. Each day typically sees 100 volatility events where output drops by over 10%, and 10 events where output drops by over 70 events. Volatility also varies day by day.
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Energy efficiency: an overview?

This data-file is an overview of energy efficiency. The average power generation facility is c40% efficient. The average ICE is 20%. The average EV is 80%. The average industrial process is 85%. Some new energies have efficiency losses.
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Biodiversity: a breakdown of species and carbon stocks?

550GT of Carbon is stored in the living biomass of 40M species currently inhabiting planet Earth. About 70,000 are vertebrate species and 6,000 are mammal species. What implications for biodiversity, climate change and nature based solutions?
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Solar variability: how much does solar energy vary by year?

This data-file aggregates the average annual volatility of solar (and wind) resources across ten locations, mainly cities, in the United States. Annual volatility of incoming solar energy reaching ground level tends to vary by +/- 6% per year, is 96% correlated across different locations within that city, and 50-70% correlated with other cities in the same region.
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Power transmission: inter-connectors smooth solar volatility?

Can large-scale power transmission smooth renewables' volatility? To answer this question, this horrible 18MB data-file aggregates 20-years of hour-by-hour solar insolation arriving at four cities in the US. The volatility in year-by-year can be halved by a single inter-connector.
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Wind power: operating costs?

Opex for a wind power project is typically $40/kW-year, or around 1-2c/kWh. Around $25/kW is maintenance, suggesting the wind maintenance market is now worth >$20bn per year. The best route to lower cost is up-scaling turbines and wind assets.
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Global gas prices: by country?

This data-file tabulates annual gas price data across twenty countries. In 2016-19, the global average price was $4/mcf, within an inter-quartile range of $2-6/mcf. Upside volatility has exploded since 2021. Yet half-a-dozen countries retain gas prices well below $2.5/mcf.
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Energy security: volcanos versus solar panels?

Every 30-years on average, a giant volcano erupts, ejecting >10km3 of debris, including aerosols that dim the sun and temporarily cool the planet by 0.5-1C. After Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, US solar insolation fell by 20% in 1992. What implications for global energy security and energy transition?
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Qatar’s North Field: production and productivity?

We have aggregated production data from the largest gas fied in the world: Qatar's North Field, aka Iran's South Pars field, with 1,260 TCF reserves. Output is running at 43bcfd in 2022, more than doubling in the past decade, which is possibly impacting future well productivity.
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Carbon offsets: cost of CO2 removal per tree planted?

What is the cost of CO2 removal by planting trees? This calculator assesses different types of trees, types of planting, survival, permanence and discounting. A good ballpark range is $15-30/ton. Verified CO2 removals are likely higher cost but higher quality offsets.
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World’s largest energy assets: by category and risk?

The largest hydrocarbon mega-projects are still 10-25x larger than the world's largest solar and offshore wind projects. Risks are different in each category. But on a risked basis, global energy supplies may come in c2% lower than base case forecasts
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Revolutions and upheavals: are energy shortages a cause?

This data-file aims to assess whether spiking food and energy prices lead to political changes. There is a >70% chance of regime change at the next election, after food and energy prices have spiked. Links with outright revolutions are looser.
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Silver demand: upside and substitution?

This data-file is a simple demand outlook for silver in the energy transition. Demand could rise 2.5x from 30kTpa to 85kTpa in 2050, driven by solar and electrification. Although in practice, we think a price spike will displace silver with copper.
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Solar trackers: efficiency improvements?

Trackers re-position solar panels to face the sun, as it arcs across the sky, day-by-day, season-by-season, due to the Earth's 23.5-degree tilt. Solar tracker efficiency improvements typically range from 20-40%. Capex cost increases are c20%. Thus 40-90% of utility solar now uses trackers.
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Renewables: share of global energy and electricity by country?

This data-file is an Excel "visualizer" for some of the key headline metrics in global energy: such as total global energy use, electricity generation by source and growing renewables penetration; broken down country-by-country, and showing how these metrics have changed over time.
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Air conditioning: energy demand sensitivity?

This data-file quantifies air conditioning energy demand. In the US each 100 variation in CDDs adds 26 TWH of electricity (0.6%) demand and 200bcf of gas (0.6%). Air conditioning already consumes 7% of all global electricity and could treble by 2050.
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Electrical conductivity: energy transition materials?

Electrical conductivity of energy transition materials is tabulated in this data-file. 'The action' takes place in the range of 10^-8 to 10^-3 Ohm-meters, including silver in solar cells, copper in renewables and EVs, aluminium transmission lines, batteries, and solar semi-conductors.
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FACTS: costs of STATCOMs and SVCs?

Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System components (FACTS) include Static Synchronous Compensators (STATCOMs) and Static VAR Compensators (SVCs). A typical wind project has 0.5 - 1.0 kVAR of FACTS per 1.0 kW of real power capacity. Each kVAR of SVCs and STATCOMs costs $100/kVAR and $150/kVAR respectively.
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World food production: energy breakdown by crop by country?

World food production runs at 10 bn tons per year, equivalent to 25,000 TWH of primary energy, or 7,500 calories per person per day. Of this total, 30% is fed to animals, 30% is wasted, 5% is converted to biofuels and 2% is used in consumer products. Humans eat the remaining 2,500 calories per person per day.
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European shale: an overview?

Europe has 15 TCM of technically recoverable shale gas resources. This data-file aims to provide a helpful overview, as we expect exploration to re-accelerate. Ukraine has the best shale in Europe, which may even be a motivation for Russian aggression. Other countries with good potential, held back only by sentiment are Romania, Germany, UK, Bulgaria and Spain.
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Wind and solar: costs of grid inter-connection?

What are the costs of inter-connecting a utility-scale wind or solar project into the power grid? This data-file assesses twenty case studies in North America. Good baselines are to expect $100-300/kW of grid inter-connection costs, or $3-10/kW-km, over a 10-70 km typical distance of line adds or upgrades.
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High voltage transmission cables: power parameters?

This data-file aggregates technical parameters of ultra high-voltage power lines. The average one transmits 6.5GW, at 800-1,000kV and 4,000 Amps, over a distance of 1,500 km. Every 500 meters, there is a 70m tall tower. The power lines have total mass of 200 tons/km, 2-3% losses per 1,000km and c$3M/mile costs.
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California curtailment: key numbers from 2021?

This data-file tracks curtailment of wind and solar assets in California. c25% of California's total grid demand in 2021 was met by wind and solar. On average, 0.4% of the wind and 4% of the gross solar generation were curtailed throughout the year. But the data are highly variable.
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Hydrogen: what GWP and climate impacts?

Hydrogen is an indirect GWP, as it breaks down in the atmosphere over 1-2 years, increasing the lifespan of other GHGs, such as methane. So what is hydrogen GWP versus methane? 1 ton of atmospheric H2 most likely causes 11x more warming than 1 ton of CO2 (the number for methane is 34x). Eight conclusions follow.
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Socially responsible ETFs: portfolio summary?

This data-file evaluates the holdings of 20 socially responsible ETFs with $150bn of assets. But is this "socially responsible" or simply underweight energy (which comprises 1.2% of these funds versus 4.5% in the MSCI ACWI). More constructively, the file also evaluates a handful of "clean energy" ETFs.
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Ionic radius: comparing cation chemistry?

Ionic radius measures the width of ions, in pico-meters (one billionth of a millimeter, one trillionth of a meter), or in angstroms (100 pico-meters). This short note contains our top conclusions on ionic radius, as we find ourselves doing more inorganic chemistry around metals in the energy transition.
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Global wood production: supply by country by year?

This data-file quantifies global wood production, country-by-country, back to 1960, across energy, pulp and longer-lasting materials. Overall, wood energy has declined from 11% of the world's primary energy mix in 1960 to c4% today, but it remains stubbornly high in less-developed countries, amplifying deforestation.
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Shorter Insights

How does methane increase global temperature?

How does methane increase global temperature? This article outlines the theory. The formulae suggest 0.7 W/m2 of radiative forcing and 0.35ºC of warming has occurred due to methane leaks, which is 20-30% of the total. There are controversies and uncertainties. But ramping gas is still heavily justified in a practical roadmap to net zero.
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How does CO2 increase global temperature?

The purpose of this short article is to explain mathematical formulas linking global temperature to the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. In other words, our goal is to settle upon a simple equation, explaining how CO2 causes global warming. In turn, this is why our roadmap to net zero aims to reach 'net zero' by 2050, stabilize atmospheric CO2 below 450ppm, and we believe this scenario is compatible with 2ºC of warming.
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Energy transition: a six page summary from summer-2022?

“It provokes the desire, but it takes away the performance.” That is the porter’s view of alcohol in Act II Scene III of Macbeth. It is also our view of 2022’s impact on the energy transition. Our resultant outlook is captured in six concise pages, published in the Walter Scott Journal in Summer-2022.
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Energy transition: five reflections after 3.5 years?

This video covers our top five reflections after 3.5 years, running a research firm focused on energy transition. The greatest value is found in low-cost decarbonization technologies, resource bottlenecks and hidden nuances and bottom-up opportunities.
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All the coal in China: our top ten charts?

Chinese coal provides 15% of the world’s energy, equivalent to 4 Saudi Arabia's worth of oil. Global energy markets may become 10% under-supplied if this output plateaus per our ‘net zero’ scenario. Alternatively, might China ramp its coal, especially as Europe bids harder for renewables and LNG post-Russia? This note presents our ‘top ten’ charts.
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Battle of the batteries: EVs vs grid storage?

Who will ‘win’ the intensifying competition for finite lithium ion batteries, in a world that is hindered by a shortages of lithium, graphite, nickel and cobalt in 2022-25? Today’s note argues EVs should outcompete grid-scale storage by a factor of 2-4x.
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Energy shortages: medieval horrors?

Energy shortages are gripping the world in 2022. The 1970s are one analogy. But the 14th century was truly medieval. Today’s note reviews its top ten features. This is not a romantic portrayal of pre-industrial civilization, some simpler time “before fossil fuels”. It is a horror show of deficiencies. Avoiding energy shortages should be a core ESG goal.
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Helion: linear fusion breakthrough?

Helion is developing a linear fusion reactor, which has entirely re-thought the technology (like the 'Tesla of nuclear fusion'). It could have costs of 1-6c/kWh, be deployed at 50-200MWe modular scale and overcome many challenges of tokamaks. Progress so far includes 100MºC and a $2.2bn fund-raise, the largest of any private fusion company to-date. This note sets out its 'top ten' features.
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Oil and War: ten conclusions from WWII?

The second world war was decided by oil. Each country's war-time strategy was dictated by its availability, quality and attempts to secure more of it, including by rationing non-critical uses of it. Ultimately, halting the oil meant halting the war. Today's short note outlines out top ten conclusions from reviewing the history.
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Russia conflict: pain and suffering?

This 13-page note presents 10 hypotheses on Russia's horrific conflict. Energy supplies will very likely get disrupted, as Putin no longer needs to break the will of Ukraine, but also the West. Results include energy rationing and economic pain. Climate goals get shelved in this war-time scramble. Pragmatism, nuclear and LNG emerge from the ashes. 
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Energy transition: hierarchy of needs?

This gloomy video explores growing fears that the energy transition could 'fall apart' in the mid-late 2020s, due to energy shortages and geopolitical discord. Constructive solutions will include debottlenecking resource-bottlenecks, efficiency technologies and natural gas pragmatism.
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Sitka spruce: our top ten facts?

Sitka spruce is a fast-growing conifer, which now dominates UK forestry, and sequesters net CO2 up to 2x faster than mixed broadleaves. It can absorb 6-10 tons of CO2 per acre per year, at Yield Classes 16-30+, on 40 year rotations. This short note lays out our top ten conclusions, including benefits, drawbacks and implications.
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Coal versus gas: explaining the CO2 intensity?

Coal and gas both provide c25% of all primary global energy. But gas's CO2 intensity is 50-60% less than coal's. This short note explains the different carbon intensities from first principles, including bond enthalpies, production processes and efficiency factors.
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Decarbonized supply chains: first invent the universe?

"If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, first you must invent the universe". This captures the challenge of decarbonizing complex global supply chains. This note argues for each company in a supply chain to drive its own Scope 1&2 CO2 emissions towards zero on a net basis. Resulting products can be described as "clear", "transparent" or "translucent".
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Energy transition: grand masters?

Energy transition is like a game of chess: impossible to get right, unless you are looking at the entire board. Rigid coverage models do not work. This video explores the emergence of energy strategist roles at firms that care about energy transition, and how to become a 'grand master' in 2022.
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Established technologies: hiding in plain sight?

Decision-makers are possibly over-indexing their attention on game-changing new technologies, at the expense of over-looking pre-existing ones. Hence the purpose of this short note will be to re-cap our 'top ten' most overlooked, established technologies that can cost-effectively help the world reach net zero.
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Reforestation in Estonia: six months in?

This short note is a progress update, including videos and drone footage, on our aspirations to undertake a series of reforestation projects in Estonia. It covers considerations for selecting land; and our first small investment to plant spruce in 2022.
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Sustainable forestry: a new listed entity?

For the first time, in November-2021, a moderate-sized company has gone public with a mandate to generate CPI + 5% returns, by investing in forestry and nature-based afforestation projects. This short article summarizes the key points from the 216-page prospectus.
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Neodymium market: our top ten facts?

Neodymium is a crucial Rare Earth metal, used in permanent magnets for the ramp-up of wind turbines and electric vehicles. The market is small, but fast-growing. This could create opportunities, as bottlenecks and cost-inflation need to be kept in check. Hence this short note outlines our 'top ten facts'.
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Power functions: how would gas shortages change the cost curve?

This note evaluates how sustained gas shortages could re-shape power markets (chart above). Nuclear is the greatest beneficiary, as its cost premium narrows. The balance also includes more renewables, batteries and power-electronics; and less gas, until gas prices normalized. Self-defeatingly, we would also expect less short-term decarbonization via coal-to-gas switching.
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Energy transition: old Soviet jokes?

After six months living in Tallinn, Estonia, the history of the Baltic States has been swirling around in my mind. Especially a list of old jokes, told during Soviet times, about persistent industrial shortages, propaganda, the suppression of dissent and the ridiculousness of planned economies. This video explores whether there is any overlap with energy transition policies.
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Switching gears: the most potent GHG in the world?

SF6 is an unparalleled dielectric material, used to quench electric arcs in medium- and high-voltage switchgear. There is only one problem. It is the most potent GHG in the world. Therefore, it may be helpful to find replacements for SF6, amidst the ascent of renewables and electrification. This note discusses resultant opportunities in capital goods and some minor cost inflation consequences.
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Grid volatility: are batteries finally in the money?

UK power price volatility has exploded in 2021. The average daily range has risen 4x from 2019-20, to 35c/kWh in 3Q21. At this level, grid-scale batteries are strongly ‘in the money’. So will the high volatility persist? This is the question in today's 6-page note.
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Energy transition: distorted by politics?

Political divisions may explain some recent mysteries around the energy transition, and be larger than we had previously imagined. This note explores lobbying data and concludes there is more need for objective and apolitical analysis.
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Diet and climate: should energy transition include agriculture?

Feeding the world explains 20% of global CO2e emissions, across 12bn acres of land, whose reforestation could theoretically decarbonize the entire planet. Kilo for kilo, many meat products have 1-10x more embedded CO2 emissions than fossil fuels. This short article is to present our top ten conclusions.
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Phasing out gas: five hidden consequences?

Phasing out gas is likely to be a policy choice made by some cities or States, as part of the energy transition. The purpose of this short note is simply to examine possible consequences. Which could be stark.
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Reforestation: a real-life roadmap?

This 12-page note sets out an early-stage ambition for Thunder Said Energy to reforest former farmland in Estonia, producing high-quality CO2 credits in a biodiverse forest. The primary purpose would be to stress-test nature-based carbon removals in our roadmap to net zero, and understand the bottlenecks.
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Carbon markets: a thought experiment?

This short video is a thinly-veiled critique of carbon markets. To do this, we use an analogy from the banking sector, followed by some observations on carbon prices and carbon offsets.
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Blockchain: why so energy intensive?

A single Bitcoin transaction currently uses c1,000kWh of electricity, 1 million times more than a traditional payment. Hence this note aims to explain how blockchain works, why it has been so energy intensive in the past, and how the energy multiplier could be reduced to maybe 100 - 1,000x.
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Moore’s law: causes and new energies conclusions?

Moore’s law entails that computing performance doubles every 18-months. Which has held true since 1965. This exponential progress has been driven by three positive feedback loops. Can these same feedback loops unlock a similar trajectory for new energies costs? We find mixed evidence.
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Energy transition: conclusions from 6-months on the road?

This video contains my top five conclusions from some eye-opening real world experiences. Specifically, for the better part of the past six months, my wife and I have been working 'nomadically'. I made it to 44 US States in total. This has changed my views on transition costs, mobility and nature.
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CO2 prices: re-thinking the costs?

CO2 prices and CO2 abatement costs are very different numbers. The CO2 prices are incurred by remaining emitters. But the abatement costs depend on how much CO2 is reduced. These abatement costs can actually be astronomical if CO2 does not fall much. We argue CO2 prices are only effective if nature-based offsets are incorporated.
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Mass extinctions: insights into systemic risk?

We have reviewed 14 mass extinctions over the past 500M years. This short note contains our top five solutions. Current policies may be short-sighted around systemic risks. Improved technologies and nature-based solutions fare better.
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Video: how to risk early stage technologies?

We are starting a new strand of research, evaluating the specific energy technologies of specific early-stage companies, to help drive the energy transition. This video lays out our rationale, and our methodology, which draws on two years of patent learnings.
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Forest fires: what climate conclusions?

Global CO2 from wildfires could be c25% as large as anthropogenic CO2, while US wildfires reached an all-time record in 2020. Hence this note reconsiders nature-based solutions. Hands-off conservation may do more harm than good. Sustainable forestry, carbon-negative materials, biochar and biomass energy also look more favorable.
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Renewables: can oil and gas assets “demand shift”?

Industrial facilities that can shift electricity demand to coincide with cheap renewables can effectively start printing money as renewables get over-built. Oil and gas assets are generally less able to demand-shift than other industries. But this note outlines the best opportunities, capable of uplifting cash margins by 3-10%.
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Carbon accounting: philosophical investigations?

Current carbon accounting frameworks are not entirely helpful: simplistic rules can lack comparability, completeness, generality, and can be gamed. We prefer granular carbon accounting at the process- or asset-level, which can be compared to competitors and counterfactuals.
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Wooden wind turbines?

Carbon-negative construction materials derived from wood could be used to deflate the levellized costs of a wind turbine by 2.5 - 10%, while sequestering around 175 tons of CO2-equivalents per turbine. The opportunity is being progressed by Modvion and Vestas, as discussed in this short note below.
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One hundred years of carbon offsetting?

An acre of land can absorb 40-800 tons of CO2 over the course of a century. Today's note ranks different options for CO2 sequestration over 100-year timeframes. Active management techniques and blue carbon eco-systems are most effective.
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Renewable Energy Certificates?

Renewable Energy Certificates are legal contracts where all parties agree to pretend that gas and coal electrons are wind and solar electrons and vice versa. This note discussed the merits, drawbacks, and some strange implications for energy analysts. Our view is that nature-based carbon credits may come to be seen as 'more valid'.
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The Top Technologies in Energy

What are the top technologies to transform the global energy industry and the world? This data-file ties all our work together, summarising where we have a differentiated viewpoint, across all of our energy transition research to-date. For each technology, we summarise the opportunity, then we score its Economic Impact and Technology Readiness Level (TRL). The output is a “ranking” of the top technologies in energy, available here. The top public companies for the energy transition are screened here. The top private companies for the energy transition are also screened here.

Energy Transition Research — Notes and Background

Our energy transition research aims to help decision-makers find opportunities that can drive decarbonization of the world’s energy and industrial system. This page presents all of our recent research, in chronological order, in an array of different carousels. Our latest research is also sent out daily to subscribers on our distribution list.

Written Insights. Every Monday, we publish a 10-20 page, thematic research report. Each report tackles a specific technology or controversy, usually with the same concise structure: what is it? why does it matter? what does it cost? what are the technical challenges? which companies are leading in this theme, both public and private. We are not trying to write ‘war and peace’ in our research. Just to help decision-makers get to helpful, interesting answers, in a way that maximizes their ‘return on time’ spent reading.

Energy market models. All of our work links together into a mega-model for decarbonizing the world. In other words, we need to grasp how it will be possible to satisfy 100,000 TWH pa of human energy demand in 2050, while emitting no net CO2. Our different energy market models capture how much of each commodity and component we would need along the way, from wind/solar capacity installations, conventional energy sources such as oil and natural gas (combined with carbon capture and carbon removals), to long-distance power transmission, to all metals and materials. These are simple and useful models which can be flexed, in order to ballpark numbers and identify bottlenecks.

Economic models. What are the costs of different technologies in the energy transition? We construct economic models in order to capture costs, compare costs, and stress-test sensitivities. All of our models are in the same format. They calculate the marginal cost of product needed to achieve a 10% IRR, underlying capex, operating costs, energy costs (kWh/ton) and CO2 intensity (ton/ton).

Technology Screens and Patent Analysis. These screens aim to give a summary of the different companies in a particular supply chain, with useful data and summaries. This will either be based on breaking down the market by size, or by facility, or by screening patents.

Technology Breakthroughs. We have developed a five-point framework, for assessing the patents of different companies in the energy transition. The purpose of the framework is to assess which companies/technologies can more readily be de-risked in our roadmap to net zero, and which technologies may still have more risk attached to them (for more on the development of this framework, please see our video on evaluating risks in patents).

CO2 screening. Our carbon intensity research quantifies how much CO2e is released per unit of production, across materials, transportation, manufactured goods and energy itself. To do this, we aggregate data from technical papers, public data sources. In some cases, we have been able to build up industry “CO2 curves”, using publicly available data from sources such as EPA FLIGHT.

Further Data Downloads. Some of our data-files simply contain useful industrial data, which we have spent time aggregating, cleaning and evaluating. We publish all the data behind our research, to help decision-makers save time, and to subtantiate our published conclusions. Every exhibit or chart in a Thunder Said Energy research report will contain a link to an underlying data-file, which is published somewhere on our website.

If we can help you, or answer any questions on any aspects of our research, or our research philosophy, then please do contact us any time.