Energy Technologies – Our Insights

Methane emissions from landfills account for 2% of global CO2e. c70% of these emissions could easily be abated for c$5/ton, simply by capturing and flaring the methane. Going further, low cost uses of landfill gas in heat and power can also make good sense. But vast subsidies for landfill gas upgrading, RNG vehicles and biogas-to-jet may not be cost-effective.
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Solar costs have deflated by an incredible 90% in the past decade to 4-7c/kWh. Some commentators now hope for 2c/kWh by 2050. Further innovations are doubtless. But there are four challenges, which could stifle future deflation or even re-inflate solar. Most debilitating would be a re-doubling of CO2-intensive PV-silicon?
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Recycling lithium batteries could be worth $100bn per year by 2040 while supporting electric vehicles’ ascent. Hence new companies are emerging to recapture 95% of spent materials with environmentally sound methods. Our 15-page note explores what it would take for battery-recycling to become both practical and compelling.
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New energy policies will exacerbate inflation in the developed world,  raising price levels by 20-30%. Or more, due to feedback loops. We find this inflation could also cause new energies costs to rise over time, not fall.  As inflation concerns accelerate, policymakers may need to choose between delaying decarbonization or lower-cost transition pathways.
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Electro-fuels are hydrocarbons produced from renewable power, CO2 and water. They are reminiscent of the adage that ‘the fastest way to become a millionaire is to start out as a billionaire then found an airline’. Because all you need for 1boe of these zero-carbon fuels is 2-3 boe of practically free renewable energy.
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Could new technologies reinvigorate corn-based ethanol? This 12-page  note assesses three options. We are constructive on combining CCS or CO2-EOR with an ethanol plant, which yields a carbon-negative fuel. But costs and CO2 credentials look more challenging for bio-plastics or alcohol-to-jet fuels. 
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This 11-page note looks back at 175 patents filed by Theranos, which promised a world-changing medical testing technology, but ultimately turned out to be a fraud. The analysis has helped us create a new framework, which we will be using to assess technologies in the energy transition.
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30M acres of US croplands are used to grow corn for ethanol, with a CO2 abatement cost of $200/ton. However, if these same acres were reforested, they could absorb 2x more CO2, while farmers in the mid-West could have higher earnings. Hence this 15-page note asks could US biofuels be disrupted?
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Reaching ‘net zero’ is impossible without nature based carbon removals. Hence this 17-page note argues corporations will increasingly create internal groups to procure carbon offsets. We give twenty predictions and an analogy from labor reforms in 1850-1950.
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This 15-page report evaluates a pathway for sustainable aviation fuels, feeding biogas into a Fischer-Tropsch reactor. Bio-GTL will likely cost 3x more than conventional jet fuel, for a 75% reduction in CO2, giving an abatement cost of $550/ton. We still prefer nature-based carbon offsets to decarbonize aviation.
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Biochar is a miraculous material, improving soils, enhancing agricultural yields and avoiding 1.4kg of net CO2 emissions per kg of waste biomass. IRRs surpass 20% without CO2 prices or policy support. Hence this 18-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Nature based carbon offsets could migrate offshore in the 2020s, sequestering 3GTpa of CO2 for a price of $20-140/ton. In a more extreme case, if CO2 prices reached $400/ton, oceans could potentially decarbonize the whole world. This 19-page note outlines the opportunity in seaweed and kelp.
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Solid state batteries promise 2x higher energy density than lithium ion, with 3x faster charging and lower risk of fires. They could re-shape global energy, especially heavy trucks. But the industry has been marooned by uncontrollable cell degradation. QuantumScape’s disclosures claim it is light years ahead. But costs may remain high.
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Uranium markets could be 50-75M lbs under-supplied by 2030. This deficit is deeper than other commodities in our roadmap to net zero. Demand is driven by China, constructing reactors for 50-70% less than the West, yielding zero carbon power at 6-8c/kWh. This 18-page note presents the outlook and screens uranium miners.
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We are raising our medium-term oil demand forecasts by 2.5-3.0 Mbpd to reflect the growing reality of autonomous vehicles. AVs improve fuel economy in cars and trucks by 15-35%, and displace 1.2Mbpd of air travel. But their convenience also increases travel. This note outlines the opportunity.
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A vast new up-cycle for LNG is in the offing, to meet energy transition goals, by displacing coal. 2024-25 LNG markets could by 100MTpa under-supplied, taking prices above $9/mcf. But emerging technologies are re-shaping the industry, so well-run greenfields may resist the cost over-runs that marred the last cycle.
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25% of the power grid could realistically become ‘flexible’, shifting its demand across days, even weeks. This is the lowest cost and most thermodynamically efficient route to fit more wind and solar into power grids. We are upgrading our renewables ceilings from 40% to 50%. This 22-page note outlines the opportunity.
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“Electrify everything then decarbonize electricity”. This mantra is dangerously incorrect for industrial heating. It raises output costs by 10-110% without lowering CO2. Our 19-page note presents case studies in the steel, cement, glass, petrochemical and paper industries, which exceed 15% of global CO2.
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Vertical greenhouses achieve 10-400x greater yields per acre than field-growing, stacking layers of plants indoors, and illuminating each layer with LEDs. Economics are exciting. CO2 intensity varies. But it can be carbon-negative if powered by renewables. This 17-page case study outlines the opportunity.
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China now aspires to reach ‘net zero’ CO2 by 2060. But is this compatible with growing an industrial economy and attaining Western living standards? The best middle-ground sees China’s coal phased out and gas rising by a vast 10x to 300bcfd. The biggest challenges are geopolitics and sourcing enough LNG.
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CO2-EOR is the most attractive option for large-scale CO2 disposal. Unlike CCS, which costs over $70/ton, additional oil revenues cover the costs of sequestration. And the resultant oil is 50-100% lower carbon than usual. The technology is mature. Potential exceeds 2GTpa. This 23-page report outlines the opportunity.
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Construction accounts for 10% of global CO2, mainly due to cement and steel. But mass timber could become a dominant new material for the 21st century, lowering emissions 15-80% at no incremental cost. Debatably mass timber is carbon negative if combined with sustainable forestry. We outline the opportunity.
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Methanol is becoming more exciting than hydrogen as a clean fuel to help decarbonize transport. Specifically, blue methanol and bio-methanol are 65-75% less CO2-intensive than oil products, while they already earn 10% IRRs at c$3/gallon prices. Unlike hydrogen, it is simple to transport and integrate methanol with pre-existing vehicles.
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The unmitigated costs of climate change will likely reach $1.5trn per annum after 2050, exerting an enormous toll on the world. However, the costs of the energy transition will exceed $3trn per annum. Our 14-page note explores whether this mismatch matters. Could it even undermine the energy transition?
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This note outlines our top ten themes for 2021. We fear Energy Transition will continue building into an investment bubble. But also appearing on the horizon this year are three triggers to burst the bubble. We continue to prefer non-obvious opportunities in the transition.
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The global energy system can be fully decarbonized by 2050, for an average CO2 cost of $42/ton. Remarkably, this is almost half the cost foreseen one year ago. 85Mbpd of oil and 375TCF pa of gas are still required in this 2050 energy system, together with efficiency technologies, carbon capture and offsets.
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2.3bn hectares of land have been deforested, releasing c25% of all anthropogenic emissions. This 19-page note concludes 1.2bn hectares can be reforested. Consequently, there is room for 85Mbpd of oil and 400TCF of gas in a decarbonized energy system, while half of all ‘new energies’ may not be needed.
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UK wind power has almost trebled since 2016. But its output is volatile, now varying between 0-50% of the total grid. Hence this 14-page note assesses the volatility, using granular, hour-by-hour data from 2020, to outline which backup opportunities are best-placed.
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Drilling wells and lifting fluids to the surface are core skills in oil and gas. Hence could geothermal be a natural fit in the energy transition? Next-generation geothermal economics can be very competitive, both for power and heat. Pilot projects are accelerating. This 17-page note presents the opportunity.
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20% of Europe’s renewable electricity currently comes from biomass, mainly wood pellets, burned in facilities such as Drax’s, 2.6GW Yorkshire plant. But what are the economics and prospects for biomass power as the energy transition evolves? This 18-page analysis leaves us cautious.
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Investment bubbles in history typically take 4-years to build and 2-years to burst, as asset prices rise c815% then collapse by 75%. There is now a frightening resemblance between energy transition technologies and prior investment bubbles. This 19-page note aims to pinpoint the risks and help you defray them.
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For green hydrogen to become competitive, total electrolyser costs must deflate by over 75% from current levels around $1,000/kW. This 14-page note breaks down the numbers and the challenges, based on patents and technical papers. We argue 15-25% total cost deflation may be more realistic if manufacturers also strive to make a margin.
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A lack of gas is likely to slow down Europe’s energy transition in the 2020s. This is the conclusion in our new 12-page note, which captures basic EU policy objectives. An incremental 85MTpa of LNG must be sourced by 2030, absorbing one third of new global LNG supplies and stoking shortages.
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Tree planting charities are emerging as the best means to offset CO2. They will displace other ‘new energies’ from the cost curve. Abatement costs are $3-10/ton. The solution is available today. It also restores nature. This 18-page note presents the advantages, pushbacks, implications, and profiles charities we have supported.
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Our research identifies economic opportunities in the energy transition. To do this, we have now drawn upon 20M patents. This 14-page note illustrates the six ways patent analysis can give decision-makers an edge. Detailed examples are given in renewables, electric vehicles, capital goods, conventional energy and hydrogen.
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Carbon capture is cursed by colossal costs at small scale. But blue hydrogen may be its saviour. Crucial economies of scale are guaranteed by deploying both technologies together. The combination is a dream scenario for gas producers. This 22-page note outlines the opportunity and costs.
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Overbuilding renewables makes power grids more expensive and less reliable. Hence more businesses may generate their own power behind the meter, installing combined heat and power systems fuelled by natural gas. IRRs reach 20-30%. Efficiency is 70-80%. Total CO2 falls by 6-30%. This 17-page note outlines the opportunity.
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1% of global CO2 comes from distilling crude oil at refineries. An alternative uses precisely engineered polymer membranes to separate crude fractions, eliminating 50-80% of the costs and 97% of the CO2. We reviewed 1,000 patents, including a major breakthrough in 2020. This 14-page note presents the opportunity.
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Whale oil was a dominant, albeit barbaric, lighting fuel in the 19th century. But what happened to pricing as the industry was disrupted by kerosene and ultimately by electric lighting? We find whale oil pricing outperformed and whaling by-products rallied very sharply as the industry declined. Implications are drawn for oil and gas.
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Energy policies currently act as kingmakers for a select few transition technologies. But they offer no incentives for other, lower cost and more practical alternatives, which could economically decarbonize the whole world by 2050. Hence this 14-page note presents the top five arguments for a simple, transparent, economy-wide CO2 price. We also illustrate who would benefit versus which bubbles may burst.
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US shale productivity can still rise at a 5% CAGR to 2025, based on evaluating 300 technical papers from 2020. The latest improvements are discussed in this 12-page note. Thus unconventionals could quench deeply under-supplied oil markets by 2025. Leading technologies are also becoming concentrated in the hands of fewer operators.
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It takes 15-100 years for a major new technology to ramp from 10% to 90% of its peak adoption rate. But what determines the pace? This 15-page note finds answers by evaluating 20 examples that changed the world from 1870 to 2020. We derive four rules of thumb, in order to quantify the pace at which different energy transition technologies will scale up.
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Phase change materials could be a game-changer for energy storage. They can earn double digit IRRs unlocking c20% efficiency gains in freezers and refrigerators, which make up 9% of US electricity. This is superior to batteries which add costs and incur 8-30% efficiency losses. We review 5,800 patents and identify leading companies.
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Transporting hydrogen will be more challenging than any other energy commodity ever commercialised. This 19-page note reviews the costs and complexities of cryogenic trucks, pipelines and chemical carriers (e.g., ammonia). Midstream costs will be 2-10x higher than natural gas, while up to 50% of hydrogen’s embedded energy may be lost in transit.
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Oil markets look primed for a new up-cycle by 2022, which could culminate in Brent surpassing $80/bbl. This is sufficient to unlock 20% IRRs on the next generation of offshore projects, and thus excite another cycle of offshore exploration and development. We address potential pushbacks to the thesis and outlines who benefits.
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We have modelled full-cycle economics of a green hydrogen value chain to decarbonize trucks. In Europe, at $6/gallon diesel, hydrogen trucks will be 30% more expensive in the 2020s. They could be cost-competitive by the 2040s. But the numbers are generous and logistical challenges remain. Niche adoption is more likely than a wholesale shift.
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Is there potential to afforest any of the world’s 11bn acres of arid and semi-arid lands, by desalinating and distributing seawater? Energy economics do not work in the most extreme deserts (e.g., the Sahara). Buy $60-120/ton CO2 prices may suffice in semi-arid climates. The best economics of all use waste water from oil and gas, such as in the Permian basin.
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We model the green hydrogen value chain: harnessing renewable energy, electrolysing water, storing the hydrogen, then generating usable power in a fuel cell. Today’s costs are very high, at 64c/kWh. Even by 2050, our best case scenario is 14c/kWh, which elevates household electricity bills by $440-990/year compared with decarbonizing natural gas.
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Supercapacitors may eclipse lithium ion batteries in the hybridization of transport and industry. Their energy density is improving. Potential CO2 savings could surpass 1bn tons per year. IRRs of 10-50% can be achieved. This 20-page note presents are our conclusions after reviewing 2,000 Western patents, and identifies leading companies.
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Additive manufacturing (AM) can eliminate 6% of global CO2, across manufacturing, transport, heat and supply chains. This 21-page note quantifies each opportunity and reviews 5,500 patents to identify who benefits, among Capital Goods companies, AM Specialists and the Materials sector.
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A CO2 price of $40-80/ton could double the pace of industrial efficiency gains in the oil and gas sector, eliminating 15-20% of its CO2 emissions, as outlined in this 14-page note. Cost-curves would steepen in E&P and refining. Technology leaders benefit. Spending would also accelerate, particularly for heat exchangers, compressors, digitization and electrification projects.
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Attaining ‘Net Zero’ can uplift an Energy Major’s valuation by c50%. This means emitting no net CO2, either from the company’s operations or from the use of its products. This 19-page report shows how a Major can best achieve ‘net zero’ by exhibiting four cardinal virtues. Decarbonization is not a threat but an opportunity.
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Fuel retailers have a game-changing opportunity seeding new forests, ourlined in our 26-page note. They could offset c15bn tons of CO2 per year at a competitive cost, well below c$50/ton. We 15-25% uplifts in the value of fuel retail stations, allaying fears over CO2, and benefitting as road fuel demand surges after COVID.
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Another impact of COVID-19 may still lie ahead: a 1-2Mbpd upwards jolt in global oil demand. This 17-page note upgrades our 2022-30 oil demand forecasts by 1-2Mbpd above our pre-COVID forecasts. The increase is from road fuels, reflecting lower mass transit, lower load factors and resultant traffic congestion.
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Natural gas fuels two-thirds of residential and commercial heating, which in turn comprises c10% of global CO2. We assessed ten technologies to decarbonize heat, including heat pumps, renewables, biogas and hydrogen. The lowest cost solution is to double down on natural gas with nature-based carbon offsets.
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The global bioethanol industry could be disrupted by a carbon price. Somewhere between $15-50/ton, it becomes more economical to bury the biofuel crop, rather than convert it into biofuels. This would remove 8x more CO2 per acre, at a lower total cost. Ethanol mills and blenders would be displaced.
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Conservation agriculture builds up carbon in soil. It can sequester 3-15 bn tons of CO2 per year, generating carbon credits, while restoring loss-making farmlands to exceptional profitability. Fertilizer demand would be decimated. This 17-page report outlines the opportunity, costs, CO2-removal, winners and losers.
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$30/bbl oil prices stall the energy transition. They kill the relative economics of electric vehicles, renewables, industrial efficiency, flaring reductions, CO2 sequestration and new energy R&D. This 15-page note finds $60/bbl oil is ‘best’ for decarbonization. Policymakers should target $60 oil.
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This 14-page report assesses 6,000 patents from 2018-19, to determine which Energy Majors are best-placed to weather the downturn, benefit from dislocation and thrive in the recovery. We find clear leaders in onshore, offshore, shale, LNG and digital. Other Majors may be pulling back from upstream oil and gas.
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Digitization improves economics and CO2 credentials. But now it will structurally accelerate due to higher resiliency: Just 8% of digitized industrial processes will be disrupted due to COVID-19, compared to 80% of non-digitized processes. This 22-page report outlines the theme and who will benefit.
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The COVID-19 crisis will structurally accelerate remote working. The opportunity can save 30% of commuter journeys by 2030, avoiding 1bn tons of CO2 per year, for a net economic benefit of $5-16k per employee. This makes remote work materially more impactful than electric vehicles, as an opportunity in the energy transition.
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This 15-page note outlines our top three conclusions about COVID-19, which the oil markets may have missed. Global oil demand could decline by -11.5Mbpd YoY in 2Q20. But gasoline demand could increase in the aftermath of the crisis. Finally, longer-term, structural changes will transform commuting, retail and travel.
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Gas value chains present the largest and lowest cost decarbonization opportunity on the planet, commercialising zero carbon energy for an incremental cost below $1/mcfe ($17/ton of CO2). This 15-page report outlines how to optimize a decarbonized gas value chain, securitizing forestry-based carbon commitments in an actively managed carbon fund.
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Offshore developments will change dramatically in the 2020s, eliminating production platforms in favour of fully subsea solutions. The opportunity increases a project’s NPV by 50% and effectively eliminates upstream CO2. We reviewed 1,850 patents to find the best-placed operators and services. Others will be disrupted. The theme supports the ascent of low-carbon natural gas.
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What is the optimal mix of wind and solar in a low-cost, zero-carbon power grid? We find renewables cannot surpass 45-50% due to curtailment, which trebles prices. Batteries help little, under grid conditions. Decarbonized gas is the best backstop. A grid of 50% decarbonized gas, 25% renewables and 25% nuclear has the lowest incentive price, at 9c/kWh.
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It is widely believed that electric vehicles will destroy fossil fuel demand. We find they will increase it by 0.7Mboed from 2020-35. The reason is that 3.7x more energy is consumed to manufacture each EV than the net road fuel it displaces each year; while manufacturing of EVs is seen growing exponentially. The finding is a strong positive for natural gas, as outlined in our new 13-page note.
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Molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFCs) could be a game-changer for CCS and fossil fuels. They capture CO2 from combustion facilities; while at the same time, generating electricity from natural gas. The first pilot plant is being tested in 1Q20, by ExxonMobil and FuelCell Energy. Economics range from passable to phenomenal.
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Shell is revolutionizing LNG project design, based on reviewing 40 of the company’s gas-focused patents from 2019. The innovations can lower LNG facilities’ capex by 70% and opex by 50%; conferring a $4bn NPV and 4% IRR advantage over industry standard greenfields. Our 16-page note reviews Shell’s operational improvements, revolutionary greenfield concepts, and their economic consequences.
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Energy transition is maturing as an investment theme. ‘Obvious’ portfolio tilts are beginning to look over-crowded. Non-obvious ones are over-looked. This 26-page note outlines the 'top ten' opportunities that excite us most in 2020, among commodities, drivers of the energy transition, evolving market perceptions and forward-thinking corporate strategies.
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Scaling up natural gas is among the largest decarbonisation opportunities. But this requires minimising methane leaks. Exciting new technologies are emerging. This 28-page note ranks producers, positions for new policies and advocates developing more LNG. To seize the opportunity, we also identify 35 companies geared to the theme. Global gas demand will not be derailed by methane leaks.
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Shale growth has been slowing due to fears over the energy transition, as Permian upstream CO2 emissions reached a new high in 2019. We disaggregate the CO2 across 14 causes. It could be eliminated by improved technologies, making Permian production carbon neutral: uplifting NPVs by c$4-7/boe, re-attracting a vast wave of capital and growth. This note identifies the best opportunities.
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It is often said that Oil Majors should become Energy Majors by transitioning to renewables. But what is the best balance based on portfolio theory? We constructed a mean-variance optimisation model and find a c5-13% weighting to renewables best increases risk-adjusted returns. Beyond 35%, returns decline rapidly.
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Refining has the highest carbon footprint in global energy. Next-generation catalysts are the best opportunity for improvement: uniquely, they could cut refineries' CO2 by 15-30%, while also uplifting margins, which get obliterated by other decarbonisation approaches. Catalyst science is undergoing a digitally driven transformation. Hence this 25-page note outlines a new ESG opportunity around refining catalyst technologies. Industry leaders are also identified.
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Prioritising low carbon barrels will matter increasingly to investors, as they can reduce total oil industry CO2 by 25%. Hence, these barrels should attract lower WACCs, whereas fears over the energy transition are elevating hurdle rates elsewhere and denting valuations. In Guyana’s case, the upshot could add $8-15bn of NAV, with a total CO2 intensity that could be c50% below the industry average.
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What is the best way for investors to decarbonise the global energy system? Our new, 18-page report argues this outcome is achievable by 2050, but a new ‘venturing’ model is needed, to incubate better technologies. CO2 budgets can also be stretched furthest by re-allocating to gas, lower-carbon oil and lower-carbon industry. The biggest risk is "divestment", a grave mistake that makes decarbonisation near-impossible.
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Autonomous, electric delivery vehicles are emerging. They are game-changers: rapidly delivering online purchases to customers, creating vast new economic possibilities, but also driving the energy transition. They could eliminate 500MTpa of CO2, 3.5Mboed of fossil fuels and c$3trn pa of consumer spending across the OECD. The mechanism is a re-shaping of urban consumption habits, retail and manufacturing.
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Our new, 20-page note reviews seven technology themes that can eliminate 45Mbpd of long-term oil demand by 2050. We therefore find oil demand would plateau at 103Mbpd in the early-2020s, before declining gradually. Opportunities greatly outnumber risks for leading companies amidst this transition.
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Technology leadership is crucial in energy. It drives costs, returns and future resiliency. Hence, we have reviewed 3,000 recent patent filings, across the 25 largest energy companies. Our 34-page report outlines the "Top 10 Technology Leaders" in energy, ranging across each sub-sector.
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2019 has evoked resource fears in the shale industry. They are unfounded. Weak headline productivity is the benign result of changing completion designs. We review 350 technical papers from the shale industry in summer-2019 to rule out systemic issues. Underlying productivity continues improving at an exciting pace.
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The super-giant Mero field in pre-salt Brazil is not like its predecessors. It has a 2x higher gas cut, of which c45% is CO2. Handling the CO2 is critical. Hence, Petrobras, Shell, TOTAL and partners are pushing the boundaries of deepwater technology. We review four innovations, which can sway the field's value by $6bn.
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Equinor is deploying three world-class technologies to mitigate Johan Sverdrup’s decline rates, based on reviewing c115 of the company’s patents and dozens of technical papers. Our 15-page note outlines how its efforts may unlock an incremental $3-5bn of value, as production surprises to the upside.
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E-scooters can transform urban mobility, eliminating 2Mbpd of oil demand by 2030, competing amidst the ascent of “electric vehicles” and re-shaping urban economies. These implications follow from e-scooters having 25-50x higher energy efficiencies, higher convenience and c50% lower costs than gasoline vehicles, over short 1-2 mile journeys. Our 12-page note explores the consequences.
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Decarbonisation is often taken to mean the end of fossil fuels. It is more feasible simply to de-carbonise them, with next-generation combustion technologies. This 19-page note explores our top two opportunities: ‘Oxy-Combustion’ using the Allam Cycle and Chemical Looping Combustion. This means zero carbon coal & gas at competitive economics. Leading Oil Majors are supporting both.
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Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) uses fiber-optic cables to "hear" along a shale well, meter-by-meter, in real time. It is transformational for optimising completions and now gaining critical momentum. Our new note outlines the technology, its maturation and how it can help double shale productivity. Economics work at $15/bbl. The service industry is disrupted. Leading companies in the space are screened.
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Aerial vehicles will do in the 2020s what electric vehicles did in the 2010s: going from a niche technology to a global mega-trend that no forecaster can ignore, improving mobility by 100x. The technology is advancing rapidly. Fuel economies and costs are transformational. Aerial vehicles accelerate the energy transition.
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There is only one way to decarbonise the energy system: leading companies must find economic opportunities in better technologies. No other route can source sufficient capital to re-shape the industry. We outline seven game-changing opportunities. Remarkably, leading energy Majors are already pursuing them.
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Will Shale-EOR add another leg of unconventional upside? The topic jumped into the ‘Top 10’ most researched shale themes last year, hence we have reviewed the opportunity in depth. Stranded in-basin gas will improve the economics to c20% IRRs (at $50 oil). Production per well can rise by 1.5-2x. The theme could add 2.5Mbpd to YE25 output.
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Next-generation technology in small-scale LNG has potential to reshape the global shipping-fuels industry. Especially after IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, LNG should compete with diesel. Opportunities in trucking and shale are less clear-cut.
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We model our 'top twenty' technology opportunities for offshore oil. These can double deep-water NPVs and improve IRRs 4-5%. To re-excite investment, it is crucial to harness the best technologies.
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Due to the limitations of mechanical recycling, 85% of the world’s plastic is incinerated, dumped into landfill, or worst of all, ends up in the oceans. An alternative, plastic pyrolysis, is on the cusp of commercialisation. We have assessed twenty technology solutions. Excitingly, this nascent opportunity can turn plastic back into oil, generate >30% IRRs on investment, and could displace 15Mbpd of future oil demand.
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Shale is a 'tech' industry. The technology keeps improving at an incredible pace. But Permian technology is improving fastest, extending its lead over other basins. There are our conclusions from assessing 300 technical papers across the shale industry in 2018.
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Energy transition is underway. Or more specifically, five energy transitions are underway at the same time. They include the rise of renewables, shale oil, digital technologies, environmental improvements and new forms of energy demand. This is our rationale for establishing a new research consultancy, Thunder Said Energy, at the nexus of energy-technology and energy-economics.
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Fears over the energy transition are now restricting investment in fossil fuels, based on our new paper, published in conjunction with the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
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In 2018, we reviewed 250-years of energy transitions, arguing that another great energy transition is now on hand. It will take a century. We must also improve conventional energy.
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This data-file estimates global copper demand as part of the energy transition, rising from 27MTpa in 2019 to 75MTpa in our base case scenario. The largest contributor is the electrification of transport. You can stress test half-a-dozen key input variables in the model.
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This data-file estimates global demand for lithium as part of the energy transition. The market has already trebled from 23kTpa in 2010 to 65kTpa in 2020, while we see the ascent continuing to 500kTpa in 2030 and almost 2MTpa in 2050. 90% is driven by transport. Global reserves suffice to cover the demand.
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Our model calculates long-run oil demand to 2050, end-use by end-use, year-by-year, region-by-region across the US, the OECD and the non-OECD; as a function of 25 input variables, which you can flex. It also reflects our modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our own scenario sees a plateau at c103Mbpd in the 2020s. 
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Global additions of wind and solar capacity need to treble by 2050, in order to meet rising global electricity demand, while also achieving our decarbonization roadmap. The challenge is compounded by counteracting decline rates and asset retirements. 85% of the growth is also outside of the US and Europe.
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This model contains our basin-by-basin shale forecasts, covering the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford. We model shale supply collapsing 7Mbpd versus its pre-COVID potential in mid-2022. Improving well-productivity by 2025 can still unleash c15Mbpd of US shale liquids by 2025. 
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This is a model of China's total energy demand and CO2 emissions, from 2000-2060. Full decarbonization by 2060 is possible. But so is a 2.5x increase in emissions to 25GTpa. Which scenario unfolds depends more on consumption habits than on policy. Oil, gas, coal and renewables can all be stress-tested in the model.
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This model breaks down 2050 and 2100's global energy market, based on a dozen input assumptions. You can 'flex' these, to see how it will affect future oil, coal and gas demand, as well as global CO2 emissions. We reach 'net zero' by 2050. Even as fossil fuel demand rises 18%, gas demand trebles and renewables also reach c16%.
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We have modelled how a CO2 price could decarbonize the United States, using a granular model of US emissions, looking commodity-by-commodity and sector-by-sector. A real $40/ton CO2 price, starting in 2021, escalating by 5% pa above inflation, could fully decarbonize the country by 2050.
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We bound the uncertainties in 2020-25 oil markets using a Monte Carlo approach. Our inputs are c45 supply-demand lines, modeled monthly to 2025, including their volatility. The market outlook is more balanced than any other time we have assessed it in the past few years. Prices should move sideways?
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We have modeled the global climate system from 1750-2065, to simplify the science of energy transition. 'Net zero' is achievable by 2050. Atmospheric CO2 remains below 450ppm, consistent with 2-degrees warming. Fossil fuel usage is 10% higher than today, but the fossil fuel industry is transformed.
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US gasoline is the largest component of global oil demand, at c9% of the market. Hence we have modelled the disruption from COVID-19. -2Mbpd of YoY demand destruction is not inconceivable. But when the market turns, it may also recover very quickly.
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Renewables would cap out at 40-50% of inflexible electricity grids, based on Monte Carlo analysis of wind, solar and batteries. Beyond 50%, new renewables' curtailment rates surpass 70%, trebling their marginal cost. Batteries also increase incentive prices by 5-25x. Natural gas and demand-shifting are the best backstops.
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European gas demand could rise at its fastest pace in a quarter-century in the 2020s. Our model reflects a dozen input variables in the energy transition: e.g., renewables, electric vehicles, the phase out of coal and nuclear, LNG-transport fuel and hydrogen. You can stress-test your own assumptions in the data-file.
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This is a simple model of long-term LNG demand, extrapolating out sensible estimates for the world's leading LNG-consumers. On top of this, we overlay the upside from two nascent technology areas, which could add 200MTpa of potential upside to the market. Backup workings are included.
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This data-file tracks 50 oil and gas pipelines in the Permian basin -- their route, their capacity and their construction progress -- in order to assess the severity of pipeline bottlenecks. Oil bottlenecks are moderate, but will ease into 2020. Gas bottlenecks are more severe and remain so.
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The long-term LNG supply outlook depends on project-sanctioning. Hence, our model aims to bound the uncertainty, estimating "risked" production volumes from each of 120 LNG facilities. The 2030 supply outlook can be swayed by 325MTpa, contrasting all reasonable projects against the "firm" supply currently locked in. Download the model to stress-test the demand growth needed to balance the market.
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This data-file provides an overview of 60 economic models constructed by Thunder Said Energy, in order to help you put numbers in context. The file shows how EBIT margins, cash margins, capex per ton, capex per kW and other financial ratios vary sub-sector by sub-sector, across power, fuels and manufacturing.
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We estimate that a typical landfill facility may be able to capture and abate 70% of its methane leaks for a CO2-equivalent cost of $5/ton. Other landfill gas pathways get more complex and expensive. Raw and unprocessed landfill gas can be economical to commercialize at a cost of $2-4/mcfe.
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This model breaks down the costs of photovoltaic silicon, which explains $0.1/W of a $0.3/W solar panel. There is no way silicon producers are making economic returns below $12.5/kg mono-crystalline polysilicon prices. The average kg of PV silicon in a solar panel is also most likely associated with 140kg of direct CO2.
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This data-file models the economics of recycling spent lithium ion batteries, taking in waste cells, and recovering materials such as cobalt, nickel, manganese, copper, aluminium, lithium and steel. It currently looks challenging to generate acceptable IRRs without charging a disposal fee in the range of $1,700-2,000/ton. This could change through more automated processes.
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Our base case for producing high density polyethylene (HDPE) from ethylene requires pricing of $1,250/ton for a 10% IRR on a new greenfield plant. CO2 intensity is 0.3 kg/kg. However temperatures and pressures can vary vastly for different polymers, moving energy economics accordingly.
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This data-file captures the economics of producing bio-ethylene by dehydration of ethanol. We estimate an ethylene price of $1,600/Tpa is required for a 10% IRR, which is almost 2x higher than a conventional ethane cracker. In a best case scenario, costs could fall below $1,000/ton.
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This data-file captures the economics of producing ethanol from corn. Our base case requires a price of $1.6/gallon of ethanol for a 10% IRR on a new greenfield plant, equivalent to $2.4/gallon gasoline. 40% of the US corn crop is diverted into biofuels, but the rationale is marginal.
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This data-file captures the energy economics of aluminium production via electrolysis, breaking down the costs line-by-line. The overall process emits 10kg of CO2 per kg of aluminium. 10% IRRs are achievable at recent prices of $2.3/kg. But challenges are illustrated for environmental policy.
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Liquid transport fuels with almost no CO2 emissions could be created from renewable energy, by electrolysing water and CO2, then combining the hydrogen and CO, e.g., via Fischer Tropsch. This simple models stress tests the economics. Our base case estimates are for costs between $400-600/bbl ($10-14/gallon).
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This data-file captures the economics of gas-to-liquids via Fischer-Tropsch. Our base case requires $100/bbl realizations for a 10% IRR on a US project. You can stress-test the economics as a function of gas prices, capex costs, thermal efficiencies, et al, in the data-file.
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This model requires a $7.5/bbl upgrade spread to earn a 10% IRR across a new hydrocracking or hydrotreating unit. CO2 emissions are around 25kg/bbl. Green hydrogen could be used for decarbonization, but it would require 3x higher upgrading spreads to remain economical.
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This model captures the economics of a conventional waterflood project, in order to maintain reservoir pressure at maturing oilfields. Our base case calculations suggest 30% IRRs at $40/bbl oil, on a project costing $2.5/boe in capex and $1/bbl of incremental opex costs.
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Biochar is a carbon negative material, according to our accounting, locking as much as 0.5kg of CO2 into soils per kg of dry biomass inputs. It can also be highly economical, with a base case IRR of 25%. Our full model allows you to stress-test input assumptions.
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This data-file captures the economics of ocean carbon sequestration using seaweeds and kelps, which generate 20T of dry biomass per acre per year, of which c10% is naturally sequestered in the deep ocean. $400/ton revenues are needed for 10% IRRs, but dry kelp realizations are 10x more important than CO2 prices.
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This data-file disaggregates the marginal costs of a new uranium mine, as a simple function of uranium prices, ore grade, capex and opex. Our base case is a marginal cost of $60/lb for a 10% IRR. Cash costs range from $7-40/lb. But lower ore grades can easily require $90/lb uranium to justify investment.
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A CO2 price of $130/ton is needed to earn a 10% IRR on a US mangrove restoration project. c30% is the cost of labor and c30% is land leasing. But costs in the emerging world are lower, at $15-35/ton. They can be as low as $3/ton in the best cases, if restoring nature is treated as a charitable cause rather than an investment.
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Air separation units are crucial in metals, materials and medicine. But they consume 1% of all global energy. An oxygen price of $120/ton is required to generate a 10% IRR. Electricity comprises 90% of total costs. Hence ASUs are an excellent candidate to absorb intermittent renewables.
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A typical onshore wind project requires a 6.75c/kWh power price and a $50/ton CO2 price to generate an unlevered IRR of 10%. Investors may be inclined to view 5-6% IRRs, lowering the incentive price to 5-6c/kWh even without a carbon price. The main cost is capex, which is disaggregated across 30 inputs.
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A typical hydro project requires a 10c/kWh power price and a $50/ton CO2 price to generate an unlevered IRR of 10%. 80% of the cost is capex. Hence at a 6% hurdle rate, the incentive price falls to 6c/kWh. Cash opex is 2c/kWh. CO2 intensity is effectively nil, even after reflecting the construction energy.
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This data-file captures the economics of ethane-cracking to produce ethylene. A typical US Gulf Coast facility could generate 15% IRRs at typical capex cost of $1,135/Tpa. CO2 intensity can be as high as 1.7T of CO2 per ton of ethylene, or potentially much lower depending on the facility's energy efficiency.
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Electric arc furnaces generate enormous amounts of heat to recycle scrap steel, with 85% lower CO2 emissions than primary steel production. Our base case model yields a 15% IRR at $475/ton steel prices and a 10c/kWh power price. However, IRRs could be uplifted 2-6pp by integrating with renewables.
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Our base LNG case project is likely to earn a c10% real IRR at $7.5/mcf delivered gas and $750/Tpa capex. But the result is highly sensitive to c8 in put variables, which you can flex in this illustrative model, including LNG prices, capex, opex, utilization, thermal efficiency, and LNG shipping costs.
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This data-file models the economics of vertical greenhouses, for growing greens, fruits and vegetables close to the consumer, in large multi-story facilities, lit by LED lighting. Our base case yields 10% IRRs off $1.25k/m2 capex and 50kg/m2/year yields. CO2 intensity depends heavily upon the CO2 intensity of the underlying grid.
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This data-file is captures the costs of CO2-enhanced oil recovery, which can lower the total CO2 intensity across the oil industry by 50-100%, while economically storing CO2. We calculate 10% IRRs are attainable under our base case assumptions at $50/bbl oil prices and $20/ton CO2 prices. The work includes a full cost breakdown.
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This data-file captures the costs of producing cross-laminated timber, a fast-growing construction material that is c80% less CO2-intensive when substituted directly for traditional building materials such as concrete and steel. The economics are also exciting: We find potential to generate 20% IRRs.
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This data-file breaks down the economics of US shale gas, in order to calculate the NPVs, IRRs and gas price breakevens. There is a perception that the US has an infinite supply of gas at $2/mcf, but rising hurdle rates and regulatory risk may require higher prices.
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This model captures the economics and CO2 intensity of methanol production in different chemical pathways. We find exciting potential for bio-methanol and blue methanol. These are logistically simple substitutes for oil products, but with lower carbon content. Full cost breakdowns can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Carbon monoxide is an important chemical input for metals, materials and fuels. Could it be produced by capturing CO2 from the atmosphere or using the amine process, then electrolysing the CO2 into CO and oxygen? We find 10% IRRs could be achievable at $800/ton, competitive with conventional syngas.
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This data-file models the economics of electric vehicle chargers, by disaggregating the costs of different charger types. Economics are most favorable where they lead to incremental retail purchases and for faster chargers. Economics are least favorable around apartments, charging at work and for slower charging speeds.
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A ground source heat pump approximately doubles the efficiency of home heating and cooling, through heat-exchange with the shallow earth, which remains at 10-15°C temperatures year-round. This data-file captures the cost and CO2 savings.
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This data-file captures the economics of geothermal heat and power, built up as a function of drilling costs, pumping costs and power-cycle costs. Our base case numbers are calculated both for geothermal hotspots and for the exciting, next-generation technology of deep geothermal power.
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This model breaks down the economics of US shale, including a granular build-up of capex costs across 18 different categories. Our base case requires a $40/bbl oil price for a 10% IRR at a $7.0M shale well with a 1.0 kboed IP30. Economics range from $35-50/bbl. They are most sensitive to productivity.
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This data-file captures the economics of producing wood pellets, generating electricity from biomass, and potentially also building a further CCS facility to yield 'carbon negative power' (which is nevertheless more CO2 intensive than burning gas!). Our numbers are backstopped by industry data, including 340 US biomass plants.
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This data-file models the economics of turbo-charging gas turbines, which increases the mass flow of combustion air, to improve their power ratings by c10-20%. IRRs are solid. Turbo-charged gas turbines could thus gain greater share as grids become saturated with renewables
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This model captures the economics of transporting electricity (e.g., wind and solar), over vast distances, using high voltage direct current power cables (HVDCs). Our base case shows that a 10c/kWh transportation spread is required to earn a 10% levered IRR on 1,000-mile cable.
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This data-file explores an alternative design for a combined cycle gas turbine, re-circulating exhaust gases after combustion, in order to facilitate CO2 capture. Costs and operating parameters are summarized from recent technical papers. Even with EGR, it will be challenging to decarbonize a gas turbine for less than $100/ton.
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This data-file captures the economics of blue hydrogen production via reforming natural gas: either steam-methane reforming or auto-thermal reforming. Costs and operating parameters are compiled from technical papers. Blue hydrogen can be cost-competitive with CCS, while overall costs are most sensitive to gas prices.
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This data-file models the economics of capturing CO2 from exhaust flues using the amine process. Our base case estimate is informed by five tabs of cost data and technical papers, but all of the input assumptions can be flexed to stress-test costs. Total costs rise exponentially if it is necessary to capture CO2 from more diffuse sources.
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This data-file models the energy economics of a combined heat and power installation, to provide electricity and heating behind the meter, in lieu of purchasing electricity from the grid. Economics are strong, especially for larger units. CO2 emissions can also be reduced by 5-30% due to high efficiency.
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This data-file captures the energy economics of an Organic Rankine Cycle to recover low-grade waste heat (at 70-200C) from an industrial facility, or in the geothermal industry. A CO2 price of $50-75/ton could greatly accelerate adoption and improve the efficiency of industrial facilities.
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Green hydrogen could be converted into ammonia, shipped like LPGs, then cracked back into green hydrogen in a developed world country. The best case costs are around $10/kg, while generating an IRR of 10%, with full, round-trip energy efficiency of c60%.
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We model the economics of afforesting deserts by desalinating and distributing sufficient water for trees to grow.  The best economics are achievable in the Permian, with 10% IRRs at $30/ton CO2 prices. But the energy economics cannot work to green the world's most hyper-arid deserts, such as the Sahara.
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We have modelled the relative economics of different truck fuels. The incumbent, diesel, is compared with alternatives, such as hydrogen, LNG, Compressed Natural Gas and LPG, across 35 different metrics. Carbon-offset diesel is still the most economical trucking fuel.
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This model captures the costs of storing hydrogen, which appear to be much higher than storing natural gas. We estimate a $2.50/kg storage spread may be needed to earn a 10% IRR on a $500/kg storage facility, while costs could be deflated to $0.5/kg if nearby salt caverns are available and projects are large and efficient.
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This model captures the energy economics of a pipeline carrying oil or water. It computes the required throughput tariff (in $/bbl) to earn a 10% IRR, plues the energy (in kWh/bbl) and CO2 intensity (in kg/bbl) of flow, after optimizing the pipeline's diameter, using simple fluid mechanics.
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This model captures the energy economics of a pipeline carrying natural gas, CO2 or hydrogen. It computes the required throughput tariff (in $/mcf or $/kg) to earn a 10% IRR. Hydrogen tariffs must be 2x new gas pipelines and 10x pre-existing gas pipelines. CO2 disposal is more economic at scale.
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This data-file contains our numbers and analysis into the energy economics of phase change materials: an emerging class of materials, which can store and release heat by changing from solid to liquid phases. We quantify costs, IRRs and energy consumption of typical cold storage facilities.
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5bn tons of desalinated water are produced each year, absorbing 250 TWH of energy, or 0.4% of the world's total energy. These numbers have already doubled since 2005 and could rise sharply in the future. Hence, this model quantifies the energy economics of desalination via reverse osmosis, which requires 3.6kWh of energy per m3 of desalinated sea-water.
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This data-file summarizes the sensitivity of power projects to capital costs, across gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, hydro and hydrogen. We suspect many wind and solar projects are being financed at lower WACCs (c5%) than conventional gas projects (at c10%). The sensitivity of wind and solar projects to capital costs is also 4.5x higher.
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Industrial heat comprises around 20% of global CO2 emissions, but around half of all heat generated may ultimately be wasted. Hence, this model simplifies the economics of using a heat exchanger to recover waste heat. A CO2 price above $50/ton would greatly accelerate waste heat recovery projects.
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c150bcm of gas was flared globally in 2019. This data-file simplifies the economics of capturing flare gas. Generally, double-digit IRRs are achievable at large new shale pads. But costs are more challenging at smaller sites, remote pads or for contaminated gas. Carbon prices would dramatically improve economics. A $100/ton CO2 price could potentially eliminate US flaring.
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Renewable diesel economics could be obliterated by the loss of blenders tax credits or emerging competition from carbon offsets. This model estimates recent projects have generated 25% IRRs, based on their capex costs, feedstock data other inputs from technical papers. Pricing premia have been crucial.
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Switching coal-to-gas achieves c20% of the decarbonization to reach net zero CO2 by 2050. This data-file stress-tests the economics. A CO2 price of $10-40/ton is required to incentivize switching amongst pre-existing capacity. The largest challenge is to incentivize new gas-fired capacity, particularly in the emerging world.
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This data-file models the energy economics of constructing new electric rail lines, to displace automobile traffic and accelerate the energy transition. Electric rail saves around 1kT of CO2 per track-mile per year. But capex costs are challenging. Double digit returns may be achievable on large lines, outside the United States. CO2 prices do not materially help.
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District heating can lower CO2 intensity, by piping waste heat from power generation or industry to consumers. Costs can vary by a factor of 10x. But our base case estimates a 10% IRR at 10c/kWh retail heating price. Please download the model to flex gas prices, household consumption rates or costs.
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We have modelled the economics of a green hydrogen project, electrolysing water using renewable energy. An H2 price of $7/kg ($60/mcfe) is required to earn a 10% return. Costs data are captured. The most challenging input variable is not capex cost or efficiency, but utilization rate, if the project is to be truly green.
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Greater decarbonization at a lower cost is achievable by burying biomass (such as corn or sugarcane) rather than converting it into bio-ethanol. This model captures the economics. Detailed costs and CO2 comparisons are shown under different iterations. 
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Under our base case estimates, a $130/ton CO2 price is required to achieve passable economics and incentivize rooftop solar heaters. Once installed, solar heaters save around 1T of CO2 per household per year and lower water heating bills by 50-80%. This data-file models the economics.
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We model the economics for conservation agriculture to restore soil carbon. 5-30T of CO2 can be sequestered per acre per year, while deflating farm costs by 36-73% and raising yields 10-20%. This would transform crop-growing economics from marginal to material.
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Biogas screens as a relatively expensive source of energy. Our project model requires $20/mcfe gas, a $50/ton CO2 price and a $50/ton tipping fee, in order to make a 10% unlevered return on a $430/Tpa plant. The economics are most sensitive to tipping fees. CO2 abatement costs via biogas are very high.
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Costs of disposing of CO2 are extremely variable and project-dependent, ranging from $5-50/ton, with a base case of $22.5/ton. This is the disposal price needed to earn a 10% post-tax IRR, transporting, injecting and monitoring CO2 in the subsurface.
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Residential heating will likely cost 5-20c/kWh, with a CO2 intensity of 0.1-0.4 kg/kWh. Gas fired boilers are lowest cost, even after paying $50/ton for carbon offsets. Electric heat pumps are most efficient. Oil furnaces and electric heaters are higher-cost and higher-carbon. The numbers can be stress-tested in this data-file.
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We model Direct Air Capture of CO2 is likely to cost $150-300/ton, based on granular data on its capex, opex and energy-intensity. This data-file outlines the process, our key conclusions, and allows you to stress-test your own input assumptions.
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The economic benefits of working remotely are between $5-16k per employee per year, as modelled in shit data-file. Hence we quantify that remote work could step up to displace 30% of all commutes from a typical developed world economy by 2030. The conclusions are substantiated using US data.
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Natural gas can be decarbonized for a $1/mcf premium, which is used to seed new forests. Attractive cash flows and economics are modelled here. c50% of the carbon premia are dedicated to a carbon fund. It guarantees future CO2 obligations, optimizes emissions reductions, and finally disburses remaining funds.
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This model estimates the line-by-line costs of an FPSO project, across c45 distinct cost lines (in $M and $/boe). We estimate c$750M of cost savings for a tieback, and c$500M of cost savings for a fully subsea development, as compared against a traditional project with a traditional production facility.
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The model presents the economic impacts of developing a typical, 625Mboe offshore  gas condensate field using a fully subsea solution, compared against installing a new production facility. The result is a c4% uplift in IRRs, a 50% uplift in NPV6 and a 33% reduction in the project's gas-breakeven price. The economics are attractive.
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Oxy-combustion is a next-generation power technology, burning fossil fuels in an inert atmosphere of CO2 and oxygen. It is easy to sequester CO2 from its exhaust gases, helping heat and power to decarbonise. We argue that IRRs can be competitive with conventional gas-fired power plants. 
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A fuel-retail station can uplift its FCF and valuation by c15-25% by offering CO2-offsets at the point of sale, alongside selling fuel. Gross profits from selling $50/ton carbon credits may be around 3x the typical EBIT margins of retail stations, hence we explore a particular sales model that can double fuel retail NPVs.
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This model quantifies the economics and carbon-costs of a US forestry project, purchasing pasture, and converting it into forest-land. Our base case is for a 10% IRR at a $50/ton carbon price. You can stress test the economics as a function of 23 input variables.
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This model indicates the economics of a typical utility-scale solar project, as a function of a dozen input assumptions. Our base case shows utility scale can be extremely economic. But incentive prices rise c3c/kWh if solar penetration is already high, and 5-7c/kWh in less sunny locations.
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Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells could be extremely promising, generating electrical power from natural gas as an input, while also capturing CO2 from industrial flue gases through an electrochemical process. We model competitive economics. Our model runs of 18 input variables, which you can stress-test.
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This model shows the full-cycle cost of storing a kWh of electricity, across ten technologies that can backstop renewables, including lithium ion batteries and redox flow batteries. Pumped storage currently screens as most economical, by a factor of 3x, while backstopping solar is 3x less costly than backstopping wind.
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This data-file models the economics of constructing a new fuel-cell power project: generating electricity from grey, blue or green hydrogen. The model is based on technical papers and past projects around the industry. Economics look challenging. Our base case estimate is a 24c/kWh incentive price.
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This data-file models the economics of constructing a new gas-to-power project, based on technical papers and past projects around the industry. A dozen input variables can be flexed, to stress test economic sensitivity. A strong role for gas is suggested in baseload generation, with costs effectively doubling, if turbines are marginalized merely to backing up renewables.
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Greenfield coal-to-power economics vary markedly by region. IRRs can reach 30% in emerging markets with low capex costs, high utilization and no carbon prices. But they fail to return their capital costs under developed world air standards and $25/ton CO2 pricing. Please download the model to stress-test the economics.
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We model the economics of constructing a new nuclear power project, based on technical papers and past projects around the industry. The challenge is high capex costs and long construction cycles. This means that a CO2 price of $270/ton is required before new nuclear outcompetes new gas-power plants.
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Could the rise of reforestation initiatives erode the value of renewable diesel? This data-file calculates purchasing CO2-credits to decarbonise diesel could cost 60-90% less than purchasing renewable diesel, at current pricing. Economically justified premia for biofuels are calculated.
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We model the economics of powering an oil platform from shore, using cheap renewable power instead of traditional gas turbines. This can lower upstream CO2 emissions by by around 70%, saving 5-15kg/bbl, for a cost of $50-100/ton. NPVs can be positive with low WACCs and high gas prices, but the primary aim is low-cost decarbonisation.
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This data-model calculates risk-adjusted returns for different portfolio weightings in the energy sector, as companies diversify across upstream, downstream, chemicals, corporate; and increasingly, renewables and CCS. A set of optimal portfolio allocations are calculated, which maximise Sharpe ratios. You can also stress-test your own inputs.
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Refineries emit 1bn tons pa of CO2, or around 30kg per bbl of throughputs. Hence this model tests the relative costs of retro-fitting carbon capture and storage (CCS), to test the economic impacts. c10-20% of emissions will be lowest-cost to capture. The middle c50% will cost c3x more. But the final 25% could cost up to 5x more. These numbers are compared against typical refining margins.
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We have modeled out simple economics for Northern Lights, the most elaborate CCS scheme proposed by the energy industry (Equinor, Shell, TOTAL). The project involves capturing 1.3-1.5MTpa of industrial CO2, shipping it, piping it 110km offshore, then injecting it 3,000m below Norway's seabed. Costs are expensive. But phase 2 could benefit from scale, offering "CO2 storage" below the European carbon price.
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What if it were possible to displace diesel from high-cost, high-carbon island grids, by charging up large batteries with gas- and renewable power, then shipping the batteries? We model the economics to be cost-competitive, while CO2 emissions can be halved. Futher battery cost deflation will also help.
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We have modeled the economics for the full development of Exxon, Hess and CNOOC-Nexen's Stabroek block in Guyana, FPSO by FPSO. The data-file includes the field's ultimate value, resource volumes, production volumes, cash flows, capex and per-barrel economics. Sensitivities can also modeled as a function of oil prices, WACCs and resources. 
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We have tabulated energy economics on 15 commercial drones and run the equations of flight on Amazon's "Prime Air" solution. We conclude that drone delivery will use 90% less energy, 99% less cost and 90% lower carbon than is typical in current last-mile truck deliveries. Please download the model for all of the numbers.
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Shell filed 42 distinct new patents around GTL in 2018. This data-file reviews them, showing how the broad array of GTL products confers defensiveness and downstream portfolio benefits. Hence, we have modeled the economics of "replicating" Pearl GTL in Texas. Our base case is a 11% IRR taking in 1.6bcfd of stranded gas from the Permian.
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We model the economics for CO2-EOR in shales, after interest in this topic spiked 2.3x YoY in the 2019 technical literature. We see 15% IRRs in our base case, creating $1.6M of incremental value per well, uplifting type curves by 1.75x. Greater upside is readily possible. Most exciting is the prospect for Permian EOR to become the "lowest CO2 oil" in the market.
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We have modeled Equinor's flagship, 816MW "Empire wind" project, an exciting development off New York, comprising 60-80 x c10MW wind turbines, each as tall as the Chrysler building. Base case IRRs are c5%, at current wholesale power prices of 5.6c/kWh. But they can be uplifted to 10% via power-marketing, cost-deflation, leverage, carbon prices and feed-in tariffs. 
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We have modeled the economics of the Mero oilfield (formerly known as Libra), using public disclosures and our own estimates. Our model spans >250 lines of inputs and outputs, so you can flex key assumptions. In particular, we have tested the impact of different gas bottleneck scenarios on the field’s NPV.
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In 2019, the virtues of switching diesel-powered frac fleets to gas-powered electric have been extolled by companies such as EOG, Shell, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Evolution and US Well Services. The chief benefit is a material cost saving, quantified  per well in this data-model, as a function of the frac fleet size, its upgrade costs, its … Continue reading "Dreaming of Electric Frac Fleets?"
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This data-file compares diesel trains, electric trains and hydrogen trains, according to their energy consumption, carbon emissions and fuel costs. The energy economics are best for electrifying rail-lines. Hydrogen costs must deflate 25-75% to be cost-competitive.
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We have modelled the economics of Equinor's Johan Sverdrup oilfield. Our model spans >250 lines of inputs and outputs, so you can flex key assumptions. In particular, we have tested the impact of different decline rates and recovery factors on the field's ultimate value.
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This workbook contains all our modelling on the energy economics of e-scooters; a transformational technology for urban mobility. Included are our projections of per-mile costs, energy-economics, battery charging times, new electricity demand and displacement of oil demand.
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We estimate a typical deepwater oilfield could save $15-20/bbl by "de-manning", if implemented correctly. This data-file contains our workings, across 15 cost lines, based on recent design work from Technip-FMC.
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We model the relative economics of hydrogen cars, which are c85% costlier than US gasoline in our base case. In Europe, c20% cost-deflation could bring hydrogen cars close to competitiveness.
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This model calculates costs per passenger-kilometer for transportation, based on input costs. Aerial vehicles could compete with taxis as early as 2025. By the 2030s, their costs can be c60% below car ownership.
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Small-scale LNG technologies can be economic at $10/mcf, generating 15% pre-tax IRRs, off $3/mcf input gas. This data-file tabulates the line-by-line costs of typical small-scale LNG technologies (SMRs, N2 expansion). Against this baseline, we model a more cutting-edge technology, which preserves strong economics at c25x smaller scale.
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Re-fracturing Permian and Eagle Ford shale wells holds potential at higher oil prices. Our base case assumes $0.5M NPV/well uplifts, and $45/bbl breakevens. Higher prices and process-enhancements can unlock $2-3M of NPV10/well. Oxy and Devon lead the technical literature.
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This data-file provides line-by-line cost estimates for LNG as a shipping fuel, for trucked LNG, small-scale LNG and bunkered LNG. After IMO 2020 regulations buoy diesel pricing, it should be economical to fuel newbuild ships with small-scale LNG; and in the US it should be economical to convert pre-existing ships to LNG. 
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There is upside for natural gas, as EV penetration rises: we model that gas turbines can economically power fast-chargers for 13c/kWh. Carbon emissions are lowered by c70% compared with oil. And the grid is spared from power demand surges. Download our data-file to stress-test the sensitivities.
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This data-file quantifies the impact that technology can have on offshore economics. A typical offshore oilfield is modelled across 250 lines. The project is then re-modelled capturing our "top twenty" offshore technologies, to quantify the potential improvement: a doubling of NPV6, and a c4-5% improvement in IRR.
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We estimate thermo-plastic composite riser costs line-by-line. Savings should reach 45%. The file also includes a complete history of TCP installations to-date, as this technology's adoption continues.
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We have modelled the economic uplift of extra digital instrumentation on a typical Permian well. At $50/bbl oil, c$0.4M of extra instrumentation costs, which add 10% to well-productivity, will raise overall NPV by $1M and IRR by 5pp per well.
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This data-file models the economics of Eni's Slurry Technology, for hydro-converting heavy crudes and fuel oils into light products. It is among the top technologies we have reviewed for the arrival of IMO 2020 sulfur regulation, achieving >97% conversion of heavy fractions.
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>30% IRRs should be attainable converting waste-plastic back into oil, based on disclosures from technology-leaders in the sector. This economic model allows for stress-testing of product prices, input costs, gate fees, capex, opex, utilisation and fiscal regimes.
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We estimate that a dual-fuel shale rig, running on in-basin natural gas would save $2,300/day (or c$30k/well), compared to a typical diesel rig. This is after a >20% IRR on the rig’s upgrade costs. The economics make sense. However, converting the entire Permian rig count to run on gas would only absorb c100mmcfd: not much … Continue reading "Should the shale rigs switch to gas-fuel?"
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This data-file compiles all of our insights into publicly listed companies and their edge in the energy transition: commercialising economic technologies that can advance the world towards 'net zero' CO2 by 2050. As of February-2021, we have 200 differentiated views on 100 public companies.
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This data-file presents the 'top 40' private companies out of several hundred that have crossed our screens since the inception of Thunder Said Energy, looking back across all of our research. Our rankings are based on economics, technical readiness, technical edge, decarbonization and our own depth of analysis.
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This data-file summarizes the details of c15 companies aiming to commercialise low-carbon electro-fuels, using power-to-liquids technologies, and their progress to-date. The average company was founded in 2015, with 5 patents and 15 employees. Although this is skewed towards 3-4 leaders.
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This data-file gives an overview of gas sweetening and treatment processes. The main method is chemical absorption using amines. We estimate that a mid-size facility of 500mmcfd must levy a $0.15/mcf cost and emits 3.5kg/boe to take out c7% H2S and CO2. Other processes are compared.
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This screen tabulates details of almost twenty leading companies in the production and commercialization of biochar. The average company was founded in 2012, has 8 employees and 1.2 patents, showing an early-stage and competitive space.
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This data-file captures 17 plastic products derived from mechanical recycling, biologically-sourced feedstocks or that is bio-degradable. The 'greenest" plastics are c30% lower in CO2 than conventional plastics, but around 2x more costly.
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This screen assesses a dozen companies sequestering CO2 by farming seaweeds and kelp. The area is fast-growing but early-stage. The average company was founded in 2017 and employs 10 people. Commercial products include foods, animal feeds, fertilizers, plastics and even distilled spirits.
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We have screened c20 uranium miners, assessing each company's production, reserves, asset base, size and recent news flow. 10 are publicly listed. Our market outlook is that firm uranium supply may be running 25% short of the level required on our roadmap to net zero.
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We have screened 25 leading companies in autonomous vehicles (public and private), tabulating their technical progress and proposals for Level 4-5 autonomy. 75% of the companies were founded in the last decade. Leaders are focused on freight, cars, taxis and LiDAR sensing.
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Biofuels are currently displacing 3.5Mboed of oil and gas. But they are not carbon-free, and their weighted average CO2 emissions are only c50% lower. This data-file breaks down the biofuels market across seven key feedstocks, to help identify which opportunities can scale for the lowest costs and CO2, versus others that require further technical progress.
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This data-file is a simple screen of companies manufacturing drones and commercializing drone software. It includes 12 private companies and 4 public companies. For each company, we have tabulated their history, geography, number of patent filings and a short description.
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This data-file tabulates details of companies in the methanol value chain. For incumbents, we have quantified market shares. For technology providers, we have simply tabulated the numbers of patents filed. For newer, lower-carbon methanol producers, we have compiled a screen to assess leading options.
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This screen tracks companies that can improve productivity of agricultural land (so more land is available for reforestation) or increase CO2 uptake rates of plants. It includes large-cap seed and crop protection companies, through to biotech firms, through to indoor farms that achieve 350-400x higher yields per acre.
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Smart meters and smart devices are capable of transmitting and receiving real-time consumption data and instructions. This data-file tracks thirty leading companies, mostly at the venture and growth stages. They help lower demand, smooth grid volatility and encourage appliance upgrades.
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This data-file assesses who has the leading technology for producing industrial hydrogen, but especially blue hydrogen from auto-thermal reformers, after reviewing public disclosures and 750 patents. Companies include Air Liquide, Air Products, Casale, Haldor Topsoe, Johnson Matthey, KBR, Linde, Thyssenkrupp.
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This data-file is profiles ten leading companies in gas turbines, based on their disclosures and patent filings. Covered companies include mega-caps such as GE, Siemens and Mitsubishi, down to small-caps and private companies with exciting novel technologies. Case studies are also presented, with details on turbine installations.
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This database tabulates c300 venture investments, made by 9 of the leading Oil Majors. Their strategy is increasingly geared to advancing new energies, digital technologies and improving mobility. Different companies are compared and contrasted, including the full list of venture investments over time.
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This data-file screens for the 'top twenty' technology leaders in super-capacitors, by assessing c2,000 Western patents filed since 2013. The screen comprises capital goods conglomerates, materials companies, an Oil Major with exposure and specialist companies improving SC energy density.
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This data-file tabulates 5,500 patents into additive manufacturing (3D printing), in order to identify technology leaders. Patent filings over time show a sharp acceleration, making AM one of the fastest growth areas for the energy transition.  We profile 14 concentrated specialists, plus broader Cap Goods and Materials companies.
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This data-file tracks 800 patents innovating pipeline transportation of natural gas, to screen for exciting technologies and companies. 6 publicly listed firms and 6 venture-stage start-ups stood out from the analysis, commercialising next-generation materials, monitoring methods and optimizing gas distribution.
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This data-file tracks over 6,000 patents filed into battery recycling technology, escalating at a 15% CAGR since 2000. 18 technology leaders are profiled ex-China, including 6 global, large-cap listed companies and 10 private companies, including some exciting, early-stage concepts to improve material recovery and costs.
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This data-file screens twenty companies measuring and verifying nature-based carbon offsets, in forests and soils. It includes 5 leading private companies at the cutting edge. Traditionally cumbersome, manual methodologies have evolved rapidly, towards technology-driven, real-time remote sensing, to enable the scale-up of nature-based CO2 offsets.
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Heat pumps can halve the CO2 intensity of residential heating. Hence we have screened for the leading companies, focusing in upon 4,000 Western-centric patents from 2017-19. The space is competitive. 7 public companies and 4 private companies stand out, with concentrated exposure to the theme.
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This data-file screens the large, listed fertilizer companies, comparing their CO2 intensity, ROACE, cash flow and recent patent filings. The industry could be disrupted by the rise of conservation agriculture, eroding thee 186MTpa global fertilizer market, which also comprises c1% of global emissions. 
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We have compiled a database of 25 leading companies in Redox Flow Batteries, by looking across 1,237 patents since 2017. Exciting progress is visible, with technical maturity rapidly progressing, demonstration facilities under construction and a promise of cost-competitive, long-life, energy storage.
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We have updated our database of over 100 companies, which have already flown c50 aerial vehicles (aka "flying cars"), to identify the leading contenders. We categorize each vehicle by fuel type, speed, range, fuel economy and credibility. The data strongly imply aerial vehicles taking off in the 2020s.
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This data-file assesses the outlook for 25 plastic pyrolysis companies, operating  (or constructing) 100 plants around the world, which use chemical processes to turn plastic waste back into oil. Updated in 1Q20, it is encouraging to see strong TTM progress and Super-Majors entering the fray.
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This datafile tabulates ten examples of deploying Blockchain in the oil and gas industry since 2017; including companies and cost savings. Most prior examples are in trading. For 2020, we are particularly excited by the broadening of Blockchain technologies into the procurement industry, which can deflate shale costs.
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This data-file screens the methods available to monitor for methane emissions. Notes and metrics are tabulated. Emerging methods, such as drones and trucks are also scored, based on technical trials. The best drones can now detect almost all methane leaks >90% faster than traditional methods. c34 companies at the cutting edge are screened.
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Gas and diesel engines can be 30-80% less efficient when idling, or running at low loads. This is the rationale for hybridizing engines with backup batteries. Industrial applications are increasing, achieving 30-65% efficiency gains, across multiple industries. In 2018-19, the biggest new horizon has been in oil and gas, including hybrid rigs, supply vessels, construction vessels and even LNG plants.
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This data-file tabulates headline details of c35 companies commercialising catalysts for the refining industry, in order to improve conversion efficiencies and lower CO2 emissions. Five early-stage private companies stand out, while we also profile which Majors have recently filed the most patents to improve downstream catalysis.
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We outline the different processes for commercial hydrogen production, including their energy-economics, costs, CO2 emissions, technical readiness and remaining challenges. Our conclusion is that natural gas remains the most viable fuel source on a weighted basis considering cost and carbon emissions.
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This data-file outlines six leading CO2-separation technologies. For each one, we outline the process, technical maturity, cost, CO2-selectivity, energy-intensity & drawbacks. A >$50/ton carbon price is currently needed to step up CCS. But a major breakthrough is emerging: metal organic frameworks.
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Swarms of drones are emerging as the most devastating military weapon of the 21st century. This was evidenced by the recent attack on Saudi oil infrastructure. But drones' impact on 0.7Mbpd of global military oil demand could be even more devastating. This data-file quantifies their fuel economy at >1,000 mpge compared to today's fighter jets, tanks, helicopters and planes that achieve
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What if CO2 was not a waste product, but a valuable commercial feedstock? We have assessed the top 27 companies at the cutting edge, commercialising CO2 into next-generation plastics, foams, concretes, specialty chemicals and agricultural products. Each company is assessed in detail. 13 are particularly exciting. 21 are start-ups. Aramco, Chevron, Repsol also screen well.
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Over 20 next-generation subsea robotics concepts are presented. These electric solutions are increasingly autonomous, they reside subsea and can conduct more thorough inspection/intervention work. Inspection is 2-6x faster, and maintenance costs can be halved, yielding savings of $0.5-1/boe at a typical field. The data-file also summarizes the leading Majors and Service Companies in the space.
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This database covers all 14 subsea separation projects across the history of the oil industry, going back to the "dawn of subsea" in 1969. The technology has been elusive, with just a handful of applications, the largest of which is 2.3MW. This could change, with the pre-salt partners pioneering an unprecedented 6MW facility at Mero.
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Can next-generation nuclear technologies realistically be factored into long-run forecasts of energy markets or energy-transition? The impacts of nuclear fusion would be vast, and several companies are making exciting progress, but no facility in our sample has yet surpassed TRL6, achieved an "energy gain" or system stability beyond c10 mS - 2mins.
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This data-file quantifies the leading companies in Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), the game-changing technology for enhancing shale and conventional oil industry productivity. Operators are screened from their patents and technical papers. Services are screened based on their size and their technology.
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We review the top, proprietary technologies that we have seen from analysing patents and technical papers, to capitalise on IMO 2020 sulphur regulation, across the world's leading integrated oil companies.
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This file will give a helpful overview of eight main process technologies, which are used in LNG liquefaction. For each one, we summarise how it works, advantages and disadvantages, plus involved-companies.
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This data-file captures over 250,000 patents (ex-China) to assess the pace of progress in different energy transition technologies, yielding insights into batteries (high activity), autonomous vehicles and additive manufacturing (fastest acceleration), wind and solar (maturing), fuel cells and biofuels (waning) and other technologies.
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This data-file breaks down global patent filings since 1920 across 150 different categories to illustrate the pace of progress. China is now filing 70% of all global patents, which connotes future trade tensions. Western decarbonization policies must promote innovation and competitiveness.
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This data-file reviews 40 recent LNG patents, to draw conclusions and identify leading companies. Lowering capex costs matters, but should not be done at the expense of higher opex or emissions. The next generation of modular plants offer a step-change improvement. And new process technologies are also coming through.
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Metal organic frameworks are an exciting class of materials, which could reduce the energy penalties of CO2-separation by c80%, and reduce the cost of carbon capture to $15-30/ton. Based on 2020's patent filings, the key focus is finding MOFs that are stable and water-resistant, then mass manufacturing them.
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This data-file tabulates the greatest challenges and focus areas for harnessing deep geothermal energy, based on reviewing 30 recent patents from 20 companies in the space. We conclude that recent advances from the unconventional oil and gas industry are going to be a crucial enabler.
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This data-file reviews fifty patents into proton exchange membrane fuel cells, filed by leading companies in the space in 2020, in order to understand the key challenges the industry is striving to overcome. The key focus areas are controlling temperature, humidity and longevity, but unfortunately this will tend to increase costs.
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This data-file reviews fifty patents into solid oxide fuel cells, filed by leading companies in 2020. The key focus areas are improving the longevity and efficiency of SOFCs. But unfortunately, we find many of the proposed solutions are likely to increase end costs. Potential is interesting, but deflation may take longer.
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We review fifty patents from leading companies in EV charging. Complex algorithms will be required to ensure grid stability. Vehicle-manufacturers are concerned about balancing convenience and costs. While interestingly, "fast charging" does not appear to be a primary focus.
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This data-file reviews 70 patents filed by leading solar manufacturers in 2020. We expect double-digit deflation to continue, while solar panels will also gain greater efficiency and longevity. The cutting edge is now in current collectors. Examples and improvements areas are described for each company.
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This data-file tabulates challenges for the production of green hydrogen via the electrolysis of water, based on the recent patent literature. Our overall conclusion is to be circumspect. Some sources of deflation compromise efficiency, safety, longevity and reliability.
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This data-file tabulates the pace of progress into developing water electrolysers for green hydrogen production, looking across 13,600 patents globally. Fifteen leading companies are compared and contrasted.
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This data-file ranks the greatest challenges for the floating offshore wind industry, by reviewing 50 recent patents, filed by leading companies. The challenges are relatively immutable. They likely double capex and levelized costs, compared with traditional offshore wind.
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This data-file tabulates the greatest challenges for lithium ion batteries in electric vehicles, which have been cited in 2020's patent literature. Conclusions are spelled out in detail, covering energy density, "million mile" longevity and electric semi-trucks. Companies profiled include Tesla, CATL, LG, Sumitomo, et al.
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This data-file aggregates 2,000 patents filed by Vestas and compares them with 15,000 patents filed by competitors. Although other companies have made headlines with larger turbines, we find Vestas may have an edge overall, particularly in the category of operations, monitoring, maintenance and ensuring turbines' longevity.
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This data-file reviews over 1,000 patents to identify the technology leaders aiming to use membranes instead of other separation processes (e.g.,  distillation) within refineries. Operational data are also presented for an ExxonMobil breakthrough and Air Products's hydrogen recovery technology.
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This data-file compiles all of Tesla's patents, classifies them across 1,000 patent families, and describes their innovations. Our conclusion is that Tesla holds less patented IP than rival auto-companies. However, where it has filed patents, it is more focused on pure EV innovations, including recently, big data solutions and improved batteries in 2019-20.
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This data file identifies the technology leaders in phase change materials, by compiling a screen of the latest 5,800 patent filings from over 125 companies. We find progress ranging from venture stage firms through to mega-caps.
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We cleaned 18,600 patents into hydrogen vehicles and vehicle fuelling stations. Technology leaders include large auto-makers, industrial gas companies, Energy Majors and hydrogen specialists. Overall, the patents indicate the array of challenges that must be solved to scale up hydrogen fuel in transport.
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Continued deflation in lithium ion batteries is suggested by a new record of 26,000 patents filed in 2019, hence this data-file identifies the technology leaders. Elsewhere, redox flow batteries patents have doubled since 2014, while interest has been waning in solid state batteries (-57% since 2014) and liquid metal batteries (-67%).
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We screen 37,000 patents into autonomous vehicles, which will likely increase total road travel by c10%. The pace of activity has been rising at a rapid, 37% CAGR. Our data-file notes the most active companies, including tech firms (Denso, MobilEye, TuSimple, Uber, Waymo, Zoox) and auto companies (Ford, GM, Honda, Toyota, Volvo et al).
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This data-file tracks 5,000 patents filed into biofuels: by geography, by company and particularly in 2017-20. The pace of research activity has been waning since 2014. Sinopec screens as the technology leader. The data-file also identifies the 'Top Ten' Western companies, ranked by recent patent filings.
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This data-file screens for the technology leaders in fiber-optic cables, which are crucial for the digitization of industries and the world's structural shift towards remote-working, based on screening 37,000 patents. Revenues and market shares are summarized for the leaders.
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This data-file tracks 17,000 hydraulic fracturing patents filed by geography, by company, by year, since 2010. 2020 has slowed by 6% from peak, with a c36% US slowdown masked by a 33% Chinese expansion. Remarkably, in 2019, the leading Chinese Major filed more patents than the leading US Service provider. The full data-file ranks the companies.
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We have tabulated 110,000 solar patents. Research peaked in 2012-13, at 11,500 patents/year. It since slowed to c6,000/year. Yet Chinese companies have ramped up to 50% of all the filings, and now comprise 14 out of 2019's top 25 solar patent filers. Majors' patents comprise c0.5% of the total, with one SuperMajor clearly leading.
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This data-file tracks 20 traditional energy companies' offshore wind patents. Majors and Oil Services generally do not have differentiated wind IP, comprising c2% of offshore wind patents since 2000. 2 Majors and 2 Service companies are identified, however, which are making interesting inroads.
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This data-file tabulates the numbers of patents filed into different types of fuel-cells, from 2000-2020, globally and in key geographies: China, Japan, Korea and the US. Research activity peaked in 2008 and has since fallen by 30%. Japanese research has collapsed, while China's has ascended.
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This data-file captures all the subsea patents from ten of the largest service providers. Priorities have shifted since the oil downturn. The data show who is most innovative and who is best placed, by category. Clear leadership is seen in subsea pumps, wellheads, or umbilicals. Other areas are more competitive.
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Heliogen has set a new record for concentrated solar power in 2019, generating >1,000C temperatures from an array of c370 hexagonal mirrors, which are precisely controlled using computer vision. This is almost 2x traditional CSP plants. Hence this data-file reviews 21 of Heliogen's patents, finding impressive innovations and ultimate costs.
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Refineries are CO2-intensive, as their average process takes place at 450C. But improved catalysts can help, based on reviewing over 50 patents from leading energy Majors, and their requisite temperatures and pressures. Combining all the best-in-class new catalysts, we think the average refinery could save 5kg/bbl of CO2 intensity.
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This data-file summarises 120 patents into Enhanced Oil Recovery, filed by the leading Oil Majors in 2018. Hence, we can identify clear leaders in EOR technology, and what they are doing at the cutting edge, to improve recovery and lower decline rates. As the world's oilfields age, leading EOR technology will help avoid the higher costs and CO2 intensities of developing new fields to replace them.
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We present our "top five" conclusions on the lubricants industry, after reviewing 240 patents, filed by Oil Majors in 2018. We are most impressed by the intense pace of activity to improve engine efficiencies. Technology will drive margins and market shares, hence three clear market leaders are identified. The relative number of patents into Electric Vehicle Lubricants is also revealing, showing the Majors' true attitudes on electrification.
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This data-file reviews 950 technical papers from the shale industry in 2018-2020, to identify the cutting edge of shale technology. The trends show an incredible uptick in completion design, frac fluids, EOR and machine learning. Each paper is summarized and categorized. The file also shows which companies and services have a technology edge.
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TOTAL is currently pioneering the greatest advances in plastic-recycling technologies among the Majors, based on our database of 3,000 patents. This data-file covers its comprehensive inter-mixing of chromium-catalysed polyethylene, to reduce defects and increase the strength of post-consumer resins. In turn, this extends their use to films, containers and pipes.
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Well-by-well production optimisation can uplift mature fields' output 5-20%. This data-file summarises the methodology employed by BP, which has filed the most detailed patent we have seen on the topic, from our screen of 3,000 patents around the industry.
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This data-file tabulates 36 recent technical papers into "digital twins" since 2017, in order to understand how the technology is being deployed around the upstream oil and gas industry: principally to improve platform uptime, prevent rig downtime and inspect subsea infrastructure.
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Oil Majors will play a crucial role in decarbonising the energy system, while also securing the future of fossil fuels. Hence, to help identify the leading companies, this-data file summarises over 80 patents for de-carbonising power-generation, drawn from our database of over 3,000 patent-filings from the largest energy companies in 2018.
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This data-file summarises twenty recent papers using inflow control devices: an exciting digital technology to optimise horizontal wells by limiting production from zones that are susceptible to flowing water or gas. Each paper is categorized by company, country, field and focus. Also included are our 'Top 10' facts from the technical literature. 
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This data-file summarises 25 of the most recent technical papers around the industry, using fiber-optic cables for Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS). The technology is now hitting critical mass to spur shale productivity upwards.
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“If you invest with the same technology as everyone else, you may get the same returns as everyone else”. This adage matters for renewables, where we gather single digit IRRs have become customary in solar tenders. Hence, we reviewed 37 distinct solar patents filed across the Oil Majors in 2018. Three ‘leaders’ stood out, each … Continue reading "Solar Innovation at Big Oil?"
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Shale comprises c5% of global supply and c20% of global R&D; while offshore comprises c30% of global supply, but <10% of global R&D, according to our estimates. This simple file aims to break down the oil and gas industry’s R&D activities, by category and sub-category, based on the >1,000 patents and >300 SPE papers we … Continue reading "Where is oil industry R&D focused?"
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This data-file estimates the number of SPE papers that have been published about conventional and unconventional reservoir engineering in the SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering Technical journal, each year since 2007. 2018 was the first year where unconventionals papers eclipsed conventional.
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Array Technologies IPO-ed in October-2020. It manufactures solar tracking systems, supporting 25% of US solar modules installed to date. Its systems can uplift solar generation by 5-25%. we found clear, specific, intelligible patents, back-stopping six out of seven key strengths that have been cited by the company.
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Carbios has developed an enyzmatic process to recycle 90% of PET within 10-hours, which has been described in Nature. "This highly efficient, optimized enzyme outperforms all PET hydrolases reported so far". Economics and CO2 savings can be very exciting. But our work identifies four challenges, which were hard to re-risk.
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Climeworks is a Swiss company, founded in 2009, commercializing a direct air capture technology. The main innovation in its patents optimizes air flow, to avoid steep pressure drops, which can otherwise de-rail DAC economics. But we are still unable to de-risk sub-$200/ton CO2 costs based on reviewing the patents.  
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Danimer Scientific is a producer of PHA, a biodegradable plastic feedstock. PHA still has commercial challenges in its processing, mechanical properties and 4-5x higher costs than conventional plastics. Yet our patent review finds Danimer has made some specific, intelligible innovations, earning a solid score of 3.5 on our technology framework.
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Nio is a listed, electric vehicle manufacturer, headquartered in Shanghai. It operates over 200 "battery swap" stations, and the 2-millionth battery swap was completed in March-2021, with swap times soon falling to 3-minutes. Our patent analysis suggests a genuine moat in swappable batteries, which could only have been built up by an auto-maker. 
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LanzaTech aspires to "take waste carbon emissions and convert them" into sustainable fuels (and bio-plastics) with a >70% CO2 reduction. We have assessed its patents but concluded we cannot yet de-risk the CO2-to-fuels pathway in our energy transition models.
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Origin Materials went public via SPAC in February-2021, as it was acquired by Artius Acquisition Inc at a valuation of $1.8bn. Its ambition is to use wood residues to create carbon-negative plastics, cost-competitively with petroleum products. This data-file outlines our conclusions from reviewing patents.
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Enovix has developed a 3D silicon lithium-ion battery, 5-years ahead of the broader industry, with 2x higher energy density. The company went public via SPAC in February-2021, with an implied post-deal valuation of $1.12bn. This data-file assesses its technology breakthroughs.
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StoreDot is developing "extreme fast-charging" batteries for electric vehicles, using a proprietary range of nanomaterial additives. It claims prototype cells can charge 5-6x faster than conventional lithium ion. This data-file assesses StoreDot patents from 2019-20, looking to de-mystify its breakthroughs.
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This data-file reviews 25 of QuantumScape's 2019-20 patents, in order to substantiate its claims of a solid-state battery than can achieve c50-100% higher energy density than conventional lithium ion batteries, 3x faster charging, while also surviving hundreds of charge-discharge cycles without degradation.
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There are 1,500 industrial furnaces in the US manufacturing sector, with average capacity of 60MWth, c90% powered by natural gas, and thus explaining over 3.5 bcfd of US gas demand (4-5% of total). This is an unbelievably complex landscape, but we have captured as much facility-by-facility data as possible.
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This data-file summarizes the costs of capturing CO2. The lowest-cost options are to access pure CO2 streams that are simply being vented at present. Next are blue hydrogen, steel and cement, which could each have GTpa scale. Power stations place next, at $60-100/ton. DAC is carbon negative but expensive.
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The most important determinant of cooking's CO2 intensity is consumer behaviour. At today's energy costs and grid mix, gas-fired cooking yields the lowest costs. Sometimes electrification of cooking will decrease CO2 and sometimes not. Electric induction is most efficient, but 2-3x more expensive than gas and electric hobs.
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This data-file summarizes over a dozen industrial heating technologies, including their temperatures, efficiency, advantages and challenges. Generally 90% of incoming energy can be converted to industrial process heat and c40% achieves useful exergetic output. But ranges very broadly from 10-90%.
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This data-file calculates the costs, the embedded energy and the embedded CO2 of different construction materials, both during their production and for ongoing heating and cooling. Insulated wood and cross-laminated timber have the lowest CO2 intensities and can be extremely cost competitive.
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Which refiners have the lowest, and the highest CO2 emissions? To assess this, we have aggregated data on 130 US refineries, from EPA regulatory disclosures. The average US refinery emitted 32kg of CO2 per bbl of throughputs in 2019. Leading companies screen >10% better than average. Others fare 20-50% worse.
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This data-file illustrates the outsized contribution of blue carbon ecosystems in the carbon cycle, looking across mangroves, tidal marshes, sea grasses and peat bogs. Degradation of blue carbon ecosystems continues with vast CO2 consequences, comparable to the entire global cement industry.
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The aim of this data-file is to compile CO2 concentrations in industrial exhaust streams, as a molar percentage of flue gas. This matters for the costs of CO2 separation. Most promising CCS candidates are bio-ethanol plants, industrial hydrogen production and some gas processing, followed by cement and steel plants.
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The average American consumes 36MWH of energy each year, emits 20 tons of CO2, spends $2,000 directly on energy (6% of income) and $4,500 including the energy embedded in goods and services (15% of income). A CO2 price of $75/ton may fully decarbonize the US but would absorb another 5% of average income.
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This file aggregates data for 40 major US gas pipelines which transport 45TCF of gas each year over 185,000 miles; and for 3,200 compressors at 640 related compressor stations. Hence, we can calculate the CO2 intensity (in kg/mcf-mile) and methane leak rates (in %) for different midstream companies and the overall US gas industry.
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Manufacturing metal components can be extremely energy intensive, as 60-95% of original materials are often machined away. Additive manufacturing is thus able to deliver c65% CO2 savings per kg of materials in our base case. This data-file quantifies the CO2 savings based on input variables and technical papers.
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CO2-cured concrete has c60% lower emissions than traditional concrete, whichis the most widely used construction material on the planet, comprising 4bn tons of annual CO2 emissions, or 8% of the global total. This data-file profiles the CO2 and economic costs of Solidia versus traditional cement, to size the opportunity.
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US bioethanol plants produce 1Mbpd of liquid fuels, with an average CO2 intensity of 85kg/boe. Overall, corn-based bioethanol has c40% lower CO2 than oil products. We screened the leaders and laggards by CO2-intensity, covering Poet, Valero, Great Plains, Koch, Marathon and White Energy.
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Producing a ton of coal typically emits 0.19T of CO2, equivalent to 50kg/boe. The numbers comprise mining, methane leaks and transportation. Hence domestic coal production will tend to emit 2x more CO2 than gas production, plus c2x more CO2 in combustion. However, numbers vary widely based on input assumptions, such as methane lakage rates, btu content and transportation distances, which can be flexed in the model.  
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Methane leaks from 1M pneumatic devices across the US onshore oil and gas industry comprise 50% of all US upstream methane leaks and 20% of upstream CO2. This file aggregates the data. Rankings reveal operators with a pressing priority to replace >100,000 medium and high bleed devices, and other best-in-class companies.
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This data-file calculates the CO2 intensity of producing plastics, based on emissions data from over 20 US petrochemical facilities. We find plastic packaging should tend to be c90% lower-CO2 than glass. Efficiency is improved by larger, integrated crackers and petrochemical plants.
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This data-file calculates the contribution of Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs) to an oil and gas asset's emissions. Our base case estimate is 0.1kg/boe for a productive asset in a well-developed basin. Numbers rise 4x in a remote basin, and by another c4x for smaller fields. 1kg/boe is possible. These emissions can be lowered by 10-20% through by LNG-fuelling or battery-hybridization.
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This data-file quantifies the CO2 intensity of oil sands mining and SAGD, line by line, based on real-world data. We also derive a CO2 curve ranking c2.5Mbpd of production across Alberta, to compare different operators. Steam-oil-ratios explain c60% of the variance in SAGD assets' emissions.
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CO2 and methane intensities are tabulated for 300 assets across 9 basins, to rank the Permian, Bakken, GoM, Alaska, Marcellus, et al; and estimate total CO2 emissions (per barrel) and methane leakage rates across the upstream US oil and gas industry. It is also possible to rank the best companies in each basin, using the granular data.
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Methane leakages average 0.2% when distributing natural gas to end-customers, across the US's 160 retail gas networks. Leakages are most correlated with the share of sales to smaller customers. 80 distinct gas companies are ranked in this data-file. State-owned utilities appear to have 2x higher leakage rates versus public companies.
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This model disaggregates the CO2 emissions of producing shale oil, across 14 different contributors: such as materials, drilling, fracturing, supply chain, lifting, processing, methane leaks and flaring. CO2 intensity can be flexed by changing the input assumptions. Our 'idealized shale' scenario follows in a separate tab, showing how Permian shale production could become 'carbon neutral'.
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With methane emissions fully controlled, burning gas is c60% lower-CO2 than burning coal. However, taking natural gas to cause 120x more warming than CO2 over a short timeframe, the crossover (where coal emissions and gas emissions are equivalent) is 4% methane intensity. The gas industry must work to mitigate methane.
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Gas gathering and gas processing are 50% less CO2 intensive than oil refining. Nevertheless, these processes emitted 18kg of CO2e per boe in 2018. Methane matters most, explaining 7kg/boe of gas industry CO2-equivalents. This data-file assesses 850 US gas gathering and processing facilities, to screen for leaders and laggards, by geography and by operator.
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What is more CO2-intensive: the c4,000 truck trips needed to complete a shale well, or giant offshore service vessels (OSVs), which each consume >100bpd of fuel? This data-file quantifies the CO2 intensity of supply-chains, for 10 different resource types, as a function of 30 input variables.
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This data-file tabulates Permian CO2 intensity, based on regulatory disclosures from 20 of the leading producers to the EPA. The data are disaggregated by company, across 18 different categories, such as combustion, flaring, venting, pneumatics, storage tanks and methane leaks. There are opportunities to lower emissions.
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This data-file estimates the CO2 intensity of drilling oil wells, based on the fuel consumption of different rig types. Drilling wells is not the largest portion of the oil industry's total CO2 intensity. Nevertheless there is a 50x spread between the best barrels at prolific onshore fields and the worst barrels at mature deepwater assets.
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CO2 intensity of oil refineries could rise by 20% due to IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, if all high-sulphur fuel oil is upgraded into low-sulphur diesel, we estimate. The drivers are an extra stage of cracking, plus higher-temperature hydrotreating, which will also increase hydrogen demands. This one change could undo 30-years of efficiency gains.
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Emissions of refining a barrel of crude in the US has fallen at a 0.5% CAGR over the past c30-years, from 36kg/boe in 1986 to 31kg/boe in 2018. US refineries are also increasingly fueled by natural gas and merchant steam, while own use of oil, coal and oil products have been phased out.
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We tabulate c25 oil projects, breaking down the total tons of steel and concrete used in their topsides, jackets, hulls, wells, SURF and pipelines. Infill wells, tiebacks and FPSOs make the most CO2-efficient use of construction materials per barrel of production, helping to minimise emissions. Fixed leg platforms are higher CO2, then gravity based structures, then FLNG, and finally offshore wind.
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This data-file calculates the financial and carbon costs of running electric submersible pumps (ESPs) at oilfields. They are material, with ESPs fitted on 15-20% of the world's c1M wells. However, we find opportunities to save >25% of CO2 emissions switching ESPs to run on gas and renewables, and a further 25-50% through optimisation initiatives.
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This data-file tabulates global flaring intensity in 16 countries of interest. Flaring intensity has reduced by 20% in the past quarter century, to 0.2mcf/bbl, but total flaring remains 13% higher in absolute terms, at 340MTpa of CO2. Leaders and laggard are charted. LNG developments have a clear, positive role in flaring reductions.
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This data-file breaks down global CO2 emissions into 40 distinct categories. The largest single components are deforestation and passenger vehicles, at 12% each. Another 30 line items each contribute >1% of global CO2, illustrating the complexity of decarbonisation.
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More extensive "sharing" will be enabled by drone delivery technologies and could save $1trn of costs and 100MTpa of CO2 emissions across the entire US. These numbers are illustrated by tabulating the data for 20 common household items, which we estimate are currently used just 20 times in their entire useful lives, thus costing $13 and 1.3kg of CO2 per use, on average.
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We have constructed a simple model to estimate full-cycle CO2 emissions of a gas resource, as a function of its production efficiency, contaminants (CO2 and H2S), and commercialisation (LNG or pipelines) . Compared with the life-cycle emissions of oil, CO2 per boe is seen to be c0-20% lower for LNG and c50-75% lower for piped gas. Leading resource types are shown in the data-file.
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We have constructed a simple model to estimate full-cycle CO2 emissions of an oil resource, as a function of its flaring, methane leakage, gravity, sulphur content, production processes and transportation to market. A c10x energy return on energy investment is estimated. Relative advantages are seen for well-managed resources offshore and in shale; relative disadvantages are seen for heavy crudes, as well as poorly managed gas.
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We have quantified the energy efficiency of 14 different transportation technologies, using real-world data and mechanics equations. Electrification raise auto efficiency 4x, from c15-20% to c60-80%. Novel electric technologies are also unlocking unprecedented fuel economies per passenger mile.
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This data-file tabulates 30 major gas resources around the world, their volumes, their CO2 content and how the CO2 is handled. This matters because higher CO2 gas fields are more costly to develop into LNG, while CO2 venting is no longer acceptable without CCS. Permian & Marcellus LNG are best positioned.
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This data-file examines the correlations between different wind farms' generation rates. The output from individual wind farms is 67% correlated on average, at any given point in time, and as high as 90% with a 100km x 100km area. Auto-correlation was also high, as windy/non-windy periods can last 2-10 days.
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A typical home in the developed world currently has a 10kW maximum power capacity before tripping its circuit-breaker (although it varies). This could easily double in the energy transition, due to phasing back gas heating, gas cooking and the addition of home charging stations for electric vehicles.
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The purpose of this data-file is to estimate the cost of land, which matters for renewables and reforestation projects, but also amidst rising inflation. Prices can be opaque and variable. For example, arable land in Europe ranges 100x from $700 to $70,000 per acre. Nevertheless, the data-file shows vast quantities of low cost land available for reforestation.
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This data-file estimates the efficiency of electric motors and power generators, using specific examples and data-points. This matters as there are around 50bn motors in the world, consuming c45% of global electricity. Efficiency ratings are generally high, above 90%, although lagging and non-optimized motors can be in the 70-80% range.
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This data-file aims to estimate how much inflation is likely to result from policies to decarbonize the global economy. Aggregate price levels might rise by 6% per $100/ton of CO2 abatement costs. New energies costs rise by 6-30%. Mobility and food rise by 15%. And materials costs rise by an average of 40%.
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This data-file derives conclusions into green hydrogen electrolysers in Europe, based on c240 distinct projects. The market is shifting away from smaller alkaline electrolyers to super-giant PEMs and SOECs. Key controversies are visibly emerging around power sources and hydrogen uses.
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We estimate data-centers comprise 2% of global electricity and will likely rise to at least 5% by 2030. Around 40% of data-center energy demand can likely be demand-shifted, of which two-thirds is temporal and one-third is geographical. This permits another 1-2% potential share for renewables in the grid.
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Over 35 leading companies are purchasing nature-based carbon offsets, to offset their CO2 emissions. Appetite is accelerating, especially in hard-to-abate sectors. 60% of the projects are reforestation projects, 70% are undertaken indirectly through partners, of which 95% are verified by third-parties.
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Producing an electric vehicle's battery emits c9T of CO2. Hence, EVs will ultimately have c50% lower emissions than gasoline vehicles, assuming equivalent c8-10 year lifespans. But it takes around 3.5 years and c50,000 miles for the EV to 'repay' the CO2-costs of producing its battery. This data-file presents the calculations.
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This data-file estimates the costs of drone inspections, for the construction and resources industries, using bottom-up numbers from technical papers. Costs per hour can be 30% lower than for traditional quality control. A single drone, including software licenses likely costs c$30k.
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In 2019, 10M US flights carried 930M passengers 1.1 trn passenger-miles. Fuel economy per passenger mile has risen at a 2.8% CAGR since 2003, as load factors have improved by 0.7pp each year, spreading 0.5 plane miles per gallon across more passengers.
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This data-file assesses lighting solutions throughout history, from candles, to whale oil, to incandescent bulbs, to modern LEDs. Overall, the best LEDs now achieve over 80% useful energy efficiency. Lighting costs have improved by 100x over the past century, while efficiency has improved 13x.
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We estimate a house equipped with the best modern appliances will likely have 60% lower energy demand versus 30-years ago. 40% is from improvements over time, and 20% is from choosing the best modern appliances in each category. We present 20,000 data-points across eight categories.
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An electric truck would need a 15 ton battery to match the c2,500-mile range of a diesel truck. However, larger batteries above c8-tons detract 10% from fuel economy and may cause trucks to exceed regulatory weight limits, lowering their payload capacities. 4-6 ton batteries with 700-1,000km ranges are optimal.
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We have produced a cross-plot of the costs and CO2 intensities of different fuels, in $/boe and kg of CO2 per boe, to compre the relative attractiveness of decarbonization options. Favored decarbonization options are nature based solutions, CO2-EOR, blue hydrogen and coal-to-gas switching.
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This data-file tabulates the growth rates of 2,500 trees, in 12 different geographies, finding that younger trees accumualate biomass faster than older trees. The average tree widens its radius by 2mm per year. But on average, growth rates slow by c25% after 20-years, c40% after 40-years and 50% after 60-years.
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This data-file contains our estimates into the economic costs of unmitigated climate change, using the latest disclosures from the IPCC as a framework. We estimate the total costs could reach $1.5trn per annum, including productivity losses, incremental energy costs and more prevalent natural disasters.
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The purpose of this data-file is to disaggregate the energy economics of combusting different fuels, including natural gas, different oil products, NGLs, coal, hydrogen, methanol, ammonia et al. The most effective way to blend more hydrogen into the energy mix is coal-to-gas switching, followed by using lighter oil products.
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This data-file shows manufacturing GDP for 200 countries going back to 1960, to illustrate the long-term impacts of policy. China's rise is remarkable, from 1% to 30% of global manufacturing, followed by other Asian economies. The US and Europe have stagnated since 2000. The largest decline is in former Soviet countries.
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This data-file calculates the likely market sizes of different themes and commodities that have featured in our research towards a decarbonized global energy system. Included are conventional energy, renewables, demand-side technologies, capital goods,  hydrogen and nature-based carbon offsets.
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This data-file estimate the costs of blending hydrogen into pre-existing natural gas pipeline networks. Costs are relatively low per mcf of gas, but very high per ton of CO2 abated. Costs also rise exponentially, as more hydrogen is blended into the mix.
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This data-file models whether there will be enough nickel, manganese and cobalt, to build the batteries behind the vast rise of electric vehicles embedded in our oil demand forecasts. Strong reserve replacement makes nickel and manganese unconcerning. But cobalt may be a challenge.
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The purpose of this data-file is to provide helpful data on how land is used globally, and thus to quantify how much land is available for nature based solutions such as reforestation. Deep-dive details are provided on degraded land, agricultural land, natural ecosystems and reforestable lands.
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This data-file charts the evolution of the UK grid as wind power has ramped up to over 20% share of the mix, inflating the the volatility of grid power pricing. We find evidence for excess power, which needs to be absorbed. So far gas capacity remains resilient.
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This data-file tabulates key details of prior investment bubbles, such as their timing, price performance and causes. We find similarities between energy transition technologies today and the Dutch Tulip mania, South Sea bubble, Mississippi bubble, British Railway mania, Roaring Twenties, Dot Com and mid-2000s housing.
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This data-file disaggregates the costs of electric vehicle batteries, which have been reported at $156/kWh in 2019, across 25 different categories. We argue manufacturing costs can halve again, materials costs are likely to inflate if EV production grows 20x by 2030, while little room remains for margins.
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In 2019, we argued drones would be the single most disruptive technology to gain share in the 2020s, with potential to save over 500MTpa of CO2 emissions, while re-shaping urban consumption, retail and manufacturing. This data-file aims to tabulate key news flow and data-points.
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The weatherization of 2M American homes is part of Joe Biden's proposed energy policy, in order to reduce heating costs and emissions. Hence, this data-file estimates the costs and payoffs of attic insulation, air sealing, window upgrades, window coverings and smart thermostats.
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The data-file tabulates hundreds of data-points from technical papers and industry reports on different tree and grass types. It covers their growing conditions, survival rates, lifespans, rates of CO2 absorption (per tree and per acre), their water requirements, and the costs of offsetting CO2 across different species.
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This data-file screens 30 companies that are offering CO2 offsets to consumers and commercial customers. Costs vary from $4-40/ton, as a function of project types and organizational structure. We recently used the data-file to offset 200T of CO2, in the most economical, tax-efficient and personally resonant way.
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This data-file quantifies the cost per mile of vehicle ownership across different categories by correlating second hand car prices with their accumulated mileage. Hybrids and regular passenger cars are most economical. SUVs and EVs are 2x more expensive. Hydrogen vehicles depreciate fastest and will have lost over 90% of their value after 100,000 miles.
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This data-file aggregates long-term historical prices of commodities going back to 1800 using academic records and census data. Covered commodities include bricks, coal, copper, cotton, nails, rock oil, steel rails, sugar, turpentine, whale oil, wheat and wood. In particular, we focus upon the disruption of whale oil in lighting and wood in heating, to see how prices evolved.
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This data-file tabulates fiscal incentives to abate CO2 emissions. The current system is complex and arbitrary. It provides large incentives ($200-600/ton) for specific technologies that happen to have policy support, and no incentives (or small incentives) for other technologies that could make a larger impact.
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This data-file captures the generation profiles of c100 fuel cell power plants, installed to-date in the US. Output has been rising at 0.15TWH per year since 2010. It may accelerate alongside hydrogen. We find efficiency is high, but degradation and resiliency must be carefully considered. Bloom Energy's fuel cells are also profiled in detail.
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This data-file tabulates power generation profiles of 3,000 US natural gas power plants. They provide long-term resiliency and flexibility to a grid. Unlike wind and solar, they do not have a decline rate, while annual generation routines flexes between 15% to 75% of peak levels, to smooth the grid. California's blackouts present a cautionary tale.
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This data-file tabulates the 'decline rates' of 1,215 US wind power plants going back to 2001. The median YoY decline is found to run at 1.3%. However, the data are highly volatile and variable. Hence this data-file gives full granularity, asset by asset. Decline rates could detract c2pp from the IRRs of future wind projects and stall the ascent of wind power in the 2040s.
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This data-file tabulates the 'decline rates' of 3,200 US solar power plants going back to 2001. The median YoY decline is found to run at 2.5%. However, the data are volatile and variable. Hence this data-file gives full granularity, asset by asset. Decline rates could detract c4pp from the IRRs of future solar projects and stall the ascent of solar power in the 2040s.
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This database plots the adoption rates for twenty technologies that transformed living standards around the United States, year-by-year, from 1870 to 2020. Adoption rates are more rapid for technologies when they require less infrastructure, are more transformational, are more economic and are more recent. 
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Enhanced Rock Weathering removes CO2 from the atmosphere by dispersing silicate dusts. It has recently been ascribed potential to sequester 2 bn tons of CO2 per year, with costs ranging from $60-250/ton. Our own numbers suggest this is optimistic. Our workings and top three charts are presented in this data-file.
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This data-file tabulates the "top ten" challenges for geological storage of CO2, based on reviewing the technical literature. There is c$8-30/ton of tail-risk for a typical CO2 storage operation. 25 monitoring and measurement technologies are summarized. We conclude CCS is no 'less risky' than nature based solutions to climate change.
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This data-file compares the land required by different energy transition technologies, in tons of CO2-equivalents abated per acre per year. Including renewables, nature based solutions, efficiency gains and CCS, we find that decarbonizing a typical developed world country may use up 20-50% of its land.
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This data file tabulates the acreage footprints of c20 recent LNG projects. FLNG is 20x more compact than a comparable onshore plant, which may elevate costs. To benefit from compactness, we see more potential in novel "liquefaction" technologies.
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The aim of this data-file is to tabulate technical papers into production deferrals at oil and gas fields. The impact depends on the reservoir type, but generally we expect shut-ins during the 2020 COVID crisis will lower effective production capacity. Shale and Middle East producers could be relatively better placed.
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This data-file tabulates the utilization rates of different industries over time, based on a variety of data sources. Manufacturing utilization rates ran at almost 80% prior to the COVID crisis, underpinning 11% of US GDP and 25% of US energy consumption. No manufacturing industry can realistically be profitable running at the c35% utilization rates of renewable generation.
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We have collated 100 criticisms into carbon offsets using nature based solutions such as reforestation, sourced from discussions, technical papers and press reports. Ten challenges must be overcome. Most pressingly, CO2 offsets must integrate with decarbonization plans, avoid 'reversals' and be well-structured.
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This data-file summarizes the sensitivity of power projects to capital costs, across gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, hydro and hydrogen. We suspect many wind and solar projects are being financed at lower WACCs (c5%) than conventional gas projects (at c10%). The sensitivity of wind and solar projects to capital costs is also 4.5x higher.
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This data-file looks through 20 technologies that can reduce the CO2 intensity of the oil and gas sector. A CO2 price of $40/ton would effectively encourage 10% CO2 reductions that are already economic but have not yet taken place, while an $80/ton CO2 price could incentivize total decarbonization of 20%.
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This data-file aggregates the labor intensity of different energy sources, varying between 75-150 workers per TWH. Renewables have a jagged profile, positive for short-run jobs, negative for long-run jobs. A typical wind and solar project creates 250-500 jobs per TWH during construction, but only just 20-30 during operations.
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We have quantified the average speed of automobiles on a dozen highways and expressways flowing into New York City. Traffic is most severe at 4-5pm. The data suggest moderate-severe traffic conditions can curtail average vehicle fuel economy by 15-45% on highways leading in a typical city. 
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This database disaggregates 1.1trn miles of long-distance travel, by purpose, by transportation type and distance category, as context for COVID-19. c30% of long-distance travel is for business, c10% is commuting and c45% is for leisure. These splits vary markedly across planes, trains and automobiles.
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Vehicle purchasing decisions are influenced by real oil prices, as shown in this data-file. Below $40/bbl, fuel economy deteriorates at -0.8% per year, as SUVs and pickups gain share. Above $80/bbl, fuel economy improves at 2% pa as consumers prefer sedans and efficient vehicles.
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Online retail sales could structurally accelerate by c9% due to the COVID-19 crisis. A full breakdown of inputs and underlying data are included in this model. Individuals that work from home tend to make c63% more online retail purchases than in situ workers.
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Global oil demand is going through an unprecedented disruption. In the short-term, this is due to COVID-19. In the long-term, it is due to the rise of the internet and the energy transition. To contextualise how demand will change, we have aggregated granular data on travel-miles in the US and the UK.
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This data-file looks through 35 technical papers to tabulate methane leaks from different components around the oil and gas industry. The largest are losses of well control (up to 1MTpa), then mid-downstream facilities (up to 10kTpa), compressors (up to 100T), pneumatic devices, wellheads and liquid unloading (up to 10T).
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This data-file quantifies the energy costs of manufacturing solar panels, based on 10 studies and prior projects. We see the average solar project requiring 5MWH/kW, with a 2.3-year energy payback, a c10x energy-return on energy-invested and CO2-intensity of 90kg/boe (for contrast, average oil is c440kg/boe and average gas is c350kg/boe).
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This data-file tabulates the capex costs of 35 offshore wind projects in the UK, with 8.5GW of capacity, which have been installed since the year 2000. There is little evidence for deflation. Rather, breakeven power prices appear to have risen at a 2.5% CAGR over the past decade. Our modelling is show in the data-file.
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This data-file captures 65 carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities. 30 are currently running, with capacity to sequester 40MTpa of CO2; which should rise 2.5x by 2030. As costs deflate, CCS is expanding to more countries, more industries and away towards dedicated geological storage.
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This data-file tabulates the impacts of variable electricity tariffs, after a large-scale US sample. Demand is inelastic, falling just 1% for a 20% price-increase. However, socially "vulnerable" consumers suffered disproportionately, with bills rising 4% more than non-vulnerable consumers.
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Of the largest 15 shale E&Ps, the proportion with ESG slides in their quarterly presentations has exploded by 4.5x in the trailing twelve months, from 13% in 3Q18 to 60% in 3Q19. The progress is tracked in this short data-file.
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Lower carbon oil and gas may be increasingly valued by investors, earning higher multiples and lower costs of capital, according to our recent survey. 80-90% find it harder to invest in oil and gas today but view lower carbon barrels as an investable part of the solution. Capital costs are quantified for higher- and lower-carbon barrels.
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This data-file tabulates super-computing capacity possessed by leading companies in the energy industry. Computing capacity has risen 4x since 2016, and 70x since 2009. Main uses are seismic interpretation, reservoir modelling and for operational decision-making, which all increases efficiency. Leading companies are identified in the data-file.
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20 solar projects are being undertaken across the oil industry, to reduce CO2 emissions. But today's project pipeline will obviate less than 1% of oil industry CO2 by 2025. So momentum must build behind these leading examples, which are: steam-EOR in Oman and California, Solar PV in the Permian, and specific companies such as Occidental, Shell, Eni and other Majors.
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Large LNG projects make large headlines. But we are excited by the ascent of small-scale LNG facilities. At less than 1MTpa each, these facilities can be harder to track, which is the objective of this data-file. We find small LNG liquefaction capacity is set to double, to 25MTpa. Liquefaction facilities for shipping will rise 8x to 4MTpa by 2021. By 2022, Europe will have 5x more small-scale facilities than a decade prior.
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Further deflation of c50-70% is required before the world can truly "re-allocate" capital from fossil fuels to renewables, without causing near-term shortages. This is because fossil fuels' production profiles are 2-3x more front-end loaded; despite comparable costs, breakevens and resource sizes. It is still necessary to attract adequate capital for both supply sources.
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Distributing goods to the typical US consumer costs 1.5bbls of fuel, 600kg of CO2 and $1,000 per annum. The costs will increase 20-40% in the next decade, as the share of online retail doubles to c20%, hence new technologies are needed in last-mile delivery. This data-file provides a full breakdown of the numbers, across container-ships, trucks, rail-freight, cars and delivery vans; allowing you to flex each variable and test your own scenarios.
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This data-file tabulates the impressive fuel economy of container vessels, as a function of their size and speed. The best examples are 2x more efficient than typical trains and 20x more efficient than typical trucks. Hence, even as the OECD consumes 4kg per person per day of goods shipped from overseas, these container ships account for c0.25% of global CO2.
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Gasoline demand is stalling in summer-2019, down -0.4% YoY vs a prior 15-year trend for 0.4% pa growth. The cause is urban Vehicle Miles Driven, which has slowed 1.4pp, defying historical correlations with GDP and gasoline prices. Possible structural explanations are explored. The full data-file contains monthly data on the drivers of gasoline, going back to 2002.
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This data-file tracks construction progress of 30 FPSOs being deployed in the Brazilian pre-salt. In each case, we quantify the vessel's oil and gas handling capacity, development timing and news flow. Pipeline bottlenecks are emerging, and will only be able to export one-third of the pre-salt gas volumes by 2025. The rest  must be re-injected.
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This data-file tracks the Lula oilfield, well-by-well, FPSO-by-FPSO, aggregating data from over 100 sources. The data inform our production forecasts for 2H19 and 1H20, which matter for oil markets; and for pre-salt producers. The data show wne FPSO is now constrained by gas-handling. Six other FPSOs are negotiating water-cuts. So is Lula maturing?
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Global decline rates are currently seen at 5.2% pa in 2020-25, according to our survey. This is lower than historical consensus of 5.7%. Although shale is a headwind, it may be offset by the rise of new digital and offshore technologies. Hence modestly more participants see 2020-25 oil markets as over-supplied. 
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TOTAL is currently pioneering the greatest advances in plastic-recycling technologies among the Majors, based on our database of 3,000 patents. This data-file covers its comprehensive inter-mixing of chromium-catalysed polyethylene, to reduce defects and increase the strength of post-consumer resins. In turn, this extends their use to films, containers and pipes.
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This data-file compares diesel trains, electric trains and hydrogen trains, according to their energy consumption, carbon emissions and fuel costs. The energy economics are best for electrifying rail-lines. Hydrogen costs must deflate 25-75% to be cost-competitive.
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Advanced reservoir modelling can stave off production declines at complex offshore assets. This data-file illustrates how, tabulating production estimates based on a technical paper using Eni's high-speed computer assets. 60% uplifts in LT production and EUR are achieved. 
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This data-file tabulates the fate of companies that invented the most impactful new oil technologies of the 1980s and 1990s. Nine out of ten were ultimately acquired, for a 3-32% take-over premium. However, timing is long-dated.
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Electric Cars are being overtaken by new electric vehicles, which achieve c3x greater decarbonisation per unit of battery material. This is shown by comparing the relative impacts of deploying 400kg of battery materials into a single EV, versus a fleet of c120 electric scooters. It matters as battery materials are a limiting factor in the energy transition.
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The lowest-cost offshore projects are not "easy oil". They are the ones being developed with leading technologies. This data-file measures a -88% correlation coefficient between different Major's offshore patent filings in 2018 and their most recent projects' capex costs.
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A Boeing 747 can fly c13,000km, with a fuel economy of 5-6 gallons/mile and fuel comprising c30% of the take-off weight. We have calculated these numbers from the equations of flight. Apples-to-apples, a battery-powered 747 could only cover 90km today, and perhaps 1,000km with heroic assumptions in the future. Trans-Atlantic travel is immune to electrification.
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This data-file quantifies the most-discussed challenges for developing Chinese shale gas, after a review of the technical literature, as well as the solutions suggested to combat them, and our "top ten conclusions" on Chinese shale.
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Critics still downplay shale productivity. This simple data-file compiles fifty examples of genuine improvements across the industry since 2015. A "one line" summary is provided for each one.
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This data-file tabulates consumer attitudes towards aerial vehicles, based on the best perception study we have seen in the technical literature. It shows the influence of geography, income, age, gender, education levels and length of commute; along with top concerns.
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Different batteries have different round trip efficiencies. We see great potential, for example, in electrification of the vehicle fleet, which can achieve c3.5x efficiency gains.  We see less potential, for example, backing up the grid with hydrogen, which reduces total system efficiency by c30%.
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Top travel speeds have increased c100x since pre-industrial times, however in the past 20-years, the trend has reversed. Average mobility is down c6-7% since 2000. This data-file contains our notes and the data-points we have compiled on travel-times throughout history.
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Chemical Looping Combustion could clean up future coal or gas-fired power. But will it work? We have tabulated data from the technical literature on 40 chemical looping combustion pilots. They have run collectively for 10,000 hours. They promise 38% energy efficiencies for zero carbon emissions.
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Machine learning predicts 78% of the variance in shale well productivity, suggesting $1M/well savings and 19-97% resource uplifts. This data-file presents the correlation matrix between 22 inter-related variables which co-vary with well productivity. The complexity requires "big data" approaches. We see upside from Machine Learning in shale.
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This data-file summarises progress using machine learning to maximise production from mature wells, by detecting errors and optimising production. There is potential to lower global decline rates by c100kbpd per annum for over a decade, and increase each well's NPV by $0.1M.
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This data-file tabulates a dozen data-points on LNG plant opex, from company disclosures, the technical literature and academic papers. Opex is a function of plant size, and tends to fall by $0.3/mcf for each 10x change in plant capacity.
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This data-file contains a simple model for how wind speeds and wind power co-vary with altitude. 2x greater power could likely be harnessed by a kite at 300m than a similar-sized turbine at 80m. 
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We have tabulated the costs of constructing an LNG-fuelling station across 55 cost lines, totalling €1M/site. c$10/mcf may be added to the cost of gas as a fuel.
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Maintenance costs are tabulated by category, for a fleet of compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks, travelling 16M miles across the United States.
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We see potential for plastic-recycling technologies to displace 15Mbpd of potential oil demand growth (i.e., naphtha, LPGs and ethane) by 2060, compared to a business-as-usual scenario of demand growth. In a more extreme case, oil demand for conventional plastics could halve. This simple model allows you to vary the input assumptions and derive your own outputs.
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This data-file tabulates the most likely costs of placing waste-material (e.g., plastic) into landfill, by country. The landfill taxes are a strong incentive for plastic recycling technologies. For example, a c$65/ton gate fee improves the IRRs or plastic pyrolysis by c15pp, all else equal.
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A breakdown of the global plastics industry, from several recent academic papers. This data-file shows the rise of global plastic use since 1950, recent plastic use by end-product, recent plastic use by end-plastic (e.g., polyethylene, polypropylene, polyamides, PET, PVC), and plastics’ fate after their use. This includes the proportion of plastics that are improperly disposed … Continue reading "Global plastics: an overview?"
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This data-file breaks down the world’s use of oil to make chemicals (i.e., plastics). It’s split across 13 different products, and the ‘Top 10’ countries/regions. The estimate year is 2016.
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The 240MTpa shipping-fuels market will be disrupted from 2020, under IMO sulphur regulations. Hence, this data-file breaks down the world’s 100,000-vessel shipping fleet into 13 distinct categories. We see 40-60MTpa upside to LNG demand from 2040.
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This data-file breaks down the production losses at a giant offshore oilfield, across five categories and ten sub-categories. They are addressable with digital oilfield technologies, as shown by our notes. Advanced algorithms such as BP’s Apex solution, are capable of reducing the losses — particularly in the largest categories. Halving them could increase output by … Continue reading "Production Losses at a Giant Offshore Oilfield"
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This data-file tabulates the approximate cash flow, capex and 'pre-tax costs' of Oil Majors, to illustrate the group's operational leverage. Every $1 of free cash flow comes after $3 of cost.
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This model shows how the Permian's ultimate production plateau will be determined by the rig count, drilling efficiency, well productivity and decline rates. It includes a 10Mbpd scenario where productivity flatlines from here; and our 20Mbpd scenario where productivity continues rising at an 11% CAGR. Economic assumptions are also included.
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This video contains my top five conclusions from some eye-opening real world experiences. Specifically, for the better part of the past six months, my wife and I have been working 'nomadically'. I made it to 44 US States in total. This has changed my views on transition costs, mobility and nature.
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CO2 prices and CO2 abatement costs are very different numbers. The CO2 prices are incurred by remaining emitters. But the abatement costs depend on how much CO2 is reduced. These abatement costs can actually be astronomical if CO2 does not fall much. We argue CO2 prices are only effective if nature-based offsets are incorporated.
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We have reviewed 14 mass extinctions over the past 500M years. This short note contains our top five solutions. Current policies may be short-sighted around systemic risks. Improved technologies and nature-based solutions fare better.
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We are starting a new strand of research, evaluating the specific energy technologies of specific early-stage companies, to help drive the energy transition. This video lays out our rationale, and our methodology, which draws on two years of patent learnings.
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Global CO2 from wildfires could be c25% as large as anthropogenic CO2, while US wildfires reached an all-time record in 2020. Hence this note reconsiders nature-based solutions. Hands-off conservation may do more harm than good. Sustainable forestry, carbon-negative materials, biochar and biomass energy also look more favorable.
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Industrial facilities that can shift electricity demand to coincide with cheap renewables can effectively start printing money as renewables get over-built. Oil and gas assets are generally less able to demand-shift than other industries. But this note outlines the best opportunities, capable of uplifting cash margins by 3-10%.
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Current carbon accounting frameworks are not entirely helpful: simplistic rules can lack comparability, completeness, generality, and can be gamed. We prefer granular carbon accounting at the process- or asset-level, which can be compared to competitors and counterfactuals.
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Carbon-negative construction materials derived from wood could be used to deflate the levellized costs of a wind turbine by 2.5 - 10%, while sequestering around 175 tons of CO2-equivalents per turbine. The opportunity is being progressed by Modvion and Vestas, as discussed in this short note below.
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An acre of land can absorb 40-800 tons of CO2 over the course of a century. Today's note ranks different options for CO2 sequestration over 100-year timeframes. Active management techniques and blue carbon eco-systems are most effective.
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Renewable Energy Certificates are legal contracts where all parties agree to pretend that gas and coal electrons are wind and solar electrons and vice versa. This note discussed the merits, drawbacks, and some strange implications for energy analysts. Our view is that nature-based carbon credits may come to be seen as 'more valid'.
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The laws of thermodynamics are often framed in such arcane terms that they are overlooked. This note outlines these three fundamental laws of physics and why they matter for energy transition. Renewables and efficiency gains are prioritized, while hydrogen scores poorly.
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“As a no till farmer, I’m doing my part [on climate change... if the carbon market grows] farmers will change their practices”. These were the comments of an Iowa farmer that has now commercialized $330,000 of carbon credits from conservation agriculture. The case study shows how the carbon market is causing CO2-farming to expand and advance.
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Industrial energy efficiency is an overwhelmingly complex concept. Hence economy-wide CO2 prices may be the most effective way to maximize efficiency gains. This note illustrates the argument, in the context of 'home cooking' a process technology with which most readers are likely familiar.
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Global average surface temperatures have risen by 1.2-1.3C since pre-industrial times and continue rising at 0.02-0.03C per year, according to most data-sets . This note assesses their methodologies and controversies. Uncertainty in the data is likely higher than admitted. But the strong upward warming trend is robust.
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Britain's remarkable industrialization in the 18th and 19th centuries was part of the world's first great energy transition. In this short note, we have aggregated data, estimated the end uses of different energy sources in the Industrial Revolution, and drawn five key conclusions for the current Energy Transition.
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It is fully possible to reach 'net zero' by 2050. The costs ratchet up to $3trn per year. Paradoxically, this is 2x higher than the unmitigated cost of climate change. This note outlines different decision-makers perspectives on resolving the paradox.
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We have published 250 new research notes and data-files on our website in 2020. The purpose of this review is to highlight the 'top ten' reports, summarizing all of our work, and drawing out the best opportunities.
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This note presents the exciting new prospect of using 'wet sand' for hydraulic fracturing in shale plays. This can reduce breakeven costs up to $1/bbl and CO2 intensity up to 0.6kg/bbl.
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Our roadmap towards 'net zero' requires 20-30GTpa of carbon offsets using nature based solutions, including reforestation and soil carbon. This short note considers whether the task could be facilitated by bio-engineering plants to sequester more CO2. We find exciting ambitions, and promising pilots, but the space is not yet investable.
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Another 2-10% deforestation could make the Amazon rainforest too dry to sustain itself. 80GT of Carbon could thus be released, inflating atmospheric CO2 above 450ppm. This matters as Amazon deforestation rates have already doubled under Jair Bolsonaro's presidency. We explore policy implications.
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Unprecedented high-grading is now occurring in the US shale industry, amidst challenging industry conditions. This means production surprising to the upside in 2020-21 and disappointing during the recovery. Our 7-page note explores the causes and consequences of the whipsaw effect.
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Joe Biden's presidency will prioritize energy transition among its top four focus areas. Thus we present our top ten pieces of research that gain increasing importance as the new landscape unfolds. We are cautious on bubbles and supply shortages. But decision-makers will become more discerning around CO2.
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The 'Empress Tree' has been highlighted as a miracle solution to climate change, with potential to absorb 10x more CO2 than other tree species; while its strong, light-weight timber is prized as the "aluminium of woods". This note investigates the potential. There is clear room to optimise nature based solutions. But there may be downside risks for the Empress.
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Enhancing CO2 in greenhouses can improve yields by c30%. It costs $4-60/ton to supply this CO2, while $100-500/ton of value is unlocked. The challenge is scale, limited to 50MTpa globally. Around 50Tpa of CO2 is supplied to each acre of greenhouses. But only c10% is sequestered.
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Global mean sea levels will rise materially by 2100, irrespective of future emissions pathways. This note contains our top ten facts for decision makers, covering the numbers, the negative consequences and the potential mitigation opportunities.
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This presentation covers our outlook for the US shale industry in the 2020s, and was presented at a recent investor conference. It covers the importance of shale oil supplies in balancing future oil markets, our outlook for 5% annual productivity growth, and the opportunity for carbon-neutrality to attract capital.
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China’s pace of technology development is now 6x faster than the US, as measured across 40M patent filings, contrasted back to 1920 in this short, 7-page note. The implications are frightening. Questions are raised over the Western world’s long-term competitiveness, especially in manufacturing; and the consequences of decarbonization policies that hurt competitiveness.
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We have looked extensively for economic hydrogen opportunities to advance the energy transition. Pessimistically stated, we fear that the 'green hydrogen economy' may fail to be green, fail to deliver hydrogen, and fail to be economical. This short note summarizes our work.
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Nature based solutions to climate change could extend beyond the world's land (37bn acres) and into the world's oceans (85 bn acres). This short article explores one option, ocean iron fertilization, based on technical papers. While the best studies indicate a vast opportunity, uncertainty remains high: on CO2 absorption, sequestration, scale, cost and side-effects. Unhelpfully, research has stalled due to legal opposition.
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A new record has been published in 2020, achieving 47.1% conversion efficiency in a solar cell, using "a monolithic, series-connected, six-junction inverted metamorphic structure under 143 suns concentration". Our goal in this note is to explain the achievement and its implications.
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Below is an overview of our written research into energy technologies and the energy transition, to help you navigate our work, by topic. The summary below captures 1,000 pages of output, across 50 research notes and 40 online articles since April-2019. Energy Transition Technologies The most economic route to ‘net zero’ is to ramp renewables … Continue reading "Energy Technologies and Energy Transition"
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A typical Oil Major can uplift its valuation by 50% through targeting net zero. But how much will it cost? We find 7.5-15% higher total costs are incurred in the next decade. But this investment is justified: a $50/ton CO2 price would otherwise have inflated costs by 17%.
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This short note describes a potential, albeit early-stage, breakthrough converting waste CO2 into polyethylene, based on a recent TOTAL patent. We estimate the process could sequester 0.8T of net CO2 per ton of polyethylene. This matters as the world consumes c140MTpa of PE, 30% of the global plastics market, whose cracking and polymerisation emits 1.6T of CO2 per ton of polyethylene.
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