Energy Technologies - Our Insights

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On the road: long-run oil demand after COVID-19?

Another impact of COVID-19 may still lie ahead: a 1-2Mbpd upwards jolt in global oil demand. This 17-page note upgrades our 2022-30 oil demand forecasts by 1-2Mbpd above our pre-COVID forecasts. The increase is from road fuels, reflecting lower mass transit, lower load factors and resultant traffic congestion.
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Decarbonize Heat?

Natural gas fuels two-thirds of residential and commercial heating, which in turn comprises c10% of global CO2. We assessed ten technologies to decarbonize heat, including heat pumps, renewables, biogas and hydrogen. The lowest cost solution is to double down on natural gas with nature-based carbon offsets.
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Biofuels: better to bury than burn?

The global bioethanol industry could be disrupted by a carbon price. Somewhere between $15-50/ton, it becomes more economical to bury the biofuel crop, rather than convert it into biofuels. This would remove 8x more CO2 per acre, at a lower total cost. Ethanol mills and blenders would be displaced.
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Conservation agriculture: farming carbon into soils

Conservation agriculture builds up carbon in soil. It can sequester 3-15 bn tons of CO2 per year, generating carbon credits, while restoring loss-making farmlands to exceptional profitability. Fertilizer demand would be decimated. This 17-page report outlines the opportunity, costs, CO2-removal, winners and losers.
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What oil price is best for energy transition?

$30/bbl oil prices stall the energy transition. They kill the relative economics of electric vehicles, renewables, industrial efficiency, flaring reductions, CO2 sequestration and new energy R&D. This 15-page note finds $60/bbl oil is ‘best’ for decarbonization. Policymakers should target $60 oil.
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Upstream technology leaders: weathering the downturn?

This 14-page report assesses 6,000 patents from 2018-19, to determine which Energy Majors are best-placed to weather the downturn, benefit from dislocation and thrive in the recovery. We find clear leaders in onshore, offshore, shale, LNG and digital. Other Majors may be pulling back from upstream oil and gas.
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Digitization after the crisis: who benefits and how much?

Digitization improves economics and CO2 credentials. But now it will structurally accelerate due to higher resiliency: Just 8% of digitized industrial processes will be disrupted due to COVID-19, compared to 80% of non-digitized processes. This 22-page report outlines the theme and who will benefit.
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Remote possibilities: working from home?

The COVID-19 crisis will structurally accelerate remote working. The opportunity can save 30% of commuter journeys by 2030, avoiding 1bn tons of CO2 per year, for a net economic benefit of $5-16k per employee. This makes remote work materially more impactful than electric vehicles, as an opportunity in the energy transition.
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COVID-19: what have the oil markets missed?

This 15-page note outlines our top three conclusions about COVID-19, which the oil markets may have missed. Global oil demand could decline by -11.5Mbpd YoY in 2Q20. But gasoline demand could increase in the aftermath of the crisis. Finally, longer-term, structural changes will transform commuting, retail and travel.
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How to decarbonize gas value chains?

Gas value chains present the largest and lowest cost decarbonization opportunity on the planet, commercialising zero carbon energy for an incremental cost below $1/mcfe ($17/ton of CO2). This 15-page report outlines how to optimize a decarbonized gas value chain, securitizing forestry-based carbon commitments in an actively managed carbon fund.
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The future of offshore: fully subsea?

Offshore developments will change dramatically in the 2020s, eliminating production platforms in favour of fully subsea solutions. The opportunity increases a project’s NPV by 50% and effectively eliminates upstream CO2. We reviewed 1,850 patents to find the best-placed operators and services. Others will be disrupted. The theme supports the ascent of low-carbon natural gas.
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Decarbonized power: how much wind and solar fit the optimal grid?

What is the optimal mix of wind and solar in a low-cost, zero-carbon power grid? We find renewables cannot surpass 45-50% due to curtailment, which trebles prices. Batteries help little, under grid conditions. Decarbonized gas is the best backstop. A grid of 50% decarbonized gas, 25% renewables and 25% nuclear has the lowest incentive price, at 9c/kWh.
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Electric Vehicles Increase Fossil Fuel Demand?

It is widely believed that electric vehicles will destroy fossil fuel demand. We find they will increase it by 0.7Mboed from 2020-35. The reason is that 3.7x more energy is consumed to manufacture each EV than the net road fuel it displaces each year; while manufacturing of EVs is seen growing exponentially. The finding is a strong positive for natural gas, as outlined in our new 13-page note.
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The new forest: can carbon-neutral fuels re-shape the oil industry?

Integrated oils have a game-changing opportunity in seeding new forests. They could offset c15bn tons of CO2 pa, permitting the continuation of 85Mbpd of oil and 400TCF pa of gas in a decarbonized energy system. Cost is competitive, at c$50/ton. It is natural to sell CO2 credits alongside fuel retail: NPVs could be uplifted 15-25%, while allaying fears over the energy transition.
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MCFCs: what if carbon capture generated electricity?

Molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFCs) could be a game-changer for CCS and fossil fuels. They capture CO2 from combustion facilities; while at the same time, generating electricity from natural gas. The first pilot plant is being tested in 1Q20, by ExxonMobil and FuelCell Energy. Economics range from passable to phenomenal.
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Shell: the future of LNG plants?

Shell is revolutionizing LNG project design, based on reviewing 40 of the company’s gas-focused patents from 2019. The innovations can lower LNG facilities’ capex by 70% and opex by 50%; conferring a $4bn NPV and 4% IRR advantage over industry standard greenfields. Our 16-page note reviews Shell’s operational improvements, revolutionary greenfield concepts, and their economic consequences.
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Ten Themes for Energy in 2020

Energy transition is maturing as an investment theme. ‘Obvious’ portfolio tilts are beginning to look over-crowded. Non-obvious ones are over-looked. This 26-page note outlines the 'top ten' opportunities that excite us most in 2020, among commodities, drivers of the energy transition, evolving market perceptions and forward-thinking corporate strategies.
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Global gas: catch methane if you can?

Scaling up natural gas is among the largest decarbonisation opportunities. But this requires minimising methane leaks. Exciting new technologies are emerging. This 23-page note ranks producers, positions for new policies and advocates developing more LNG. To seize the opportunity, we also identify 34 companies geared to the theme. Global gas demand will not be derailed by methane leaks.
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Shale growth: what if the Permian went CO2-neutral?

Shale growth has been slowing due to fears over the energy transition, as Permian upstream CO2 emissions reached a new high in 2019. We disaggregate the CO2 across 14 causes. It could be eliminated by improved technologies, making Permian production carbon neutral: uplifting NPVs by c$4-7/boe, re-attracting a vast wave of capital and growth. This note identifies the best opportunities.
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Ramp Renewables? Portfolio Perspectives.

It is often said that Oil Majors should become Energy Majors by transitioning to renewables. But what is the best balance based on portfolio theory? We constructed a mean-variance optimisation model and find a c5-13% weighting to renewables best increases risk-adjusted returns. Beyond 35%, returns decline rapidly.
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Decarbonise Downstream?

Refining has the highest carbon footprint in global energy. Next-generation catalysts are the best opportunity for improvement: uniquely, they could cut refineries' CO2 by 15-30%, while also uplifting margins, which get obliterated by other decarbonisation approaches. Catalyst science is undergoing a digitally driven transformation. Hence this 25-page note outlines a new ESG opportunity around refining catalyst technologies. Industry leaders are also identified.
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Guyana: carbon credentials & capital costs?

Prioritising low carbon barrels will matter increasingly to investors, as they can reduce total oil industry CO2 by 25%. Hence, these barrels should attract lower WACCs, whereas fears over the energy transition are elevating hurdle rates elsewhere and denting valuations. In Guyana’s case, the upshot could add $8-15bn of NAV, with a total CO2 intensity that could be c50% below the industry average.
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Investing for an energy transition

What is the best way for investors to decarbonise the global energy system? Our new, 18-page report argues this outcome is achievable by 2050, but a new ‘venturing’ model is needed, to incubate better technologies. CO2 budgets can also be stretched furthest by re-allocating to gas, lower-carbon oil and lower-carbon industry. The biggest risk is "divestment", a grave mistake that makes decarbonisation near-impossible.
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Drones & droids: deliver us from e-commerce

Autonomous, electric delivery vehicles are emerging. They are game-changers: rapidly delivering online purchases to customers, creating vast new economic possibilities, but also driving the energy transition. They could eliminate 500MTpa of CO2, 3.5Mboed of fossil fuels and c$3trn pa of consumer spending across the OECD. The mechanism is a re-shaping of urban consumption habits, retail and manufacturing.
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2050 oil markets: opportunities in peak demand?

Our new, 20-page note reviews seven technology themes that can eliminate 45Mbpd of long-term oil demand by 2050. We therefore find oil demand would plateau at 103Mbpd in the early-2020s, before declining gradually. Opportunities greatly outnumber risks for leading companies amidst this transition.
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Patent Leaders in Energy

Technology leadership is crucial in energy. It drives costs, returns and future resiliency. Hence, we have reviewed 3,000 recent patent filings, across the 25 largest energy companies. Our 34-page report outlines the "Top 10 Technology Leaders" in energy, ranging across each sub-sector.
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US Shale: No Country for Old Completion Designs

2019 has evoked resource fears in the shale industry. They are unfounded. Weak headline productivity is the benign result of changing completion designs. We review 350 technical papers from the shale industry in summer-2019 to rule out systemic issues. Underlying productivity continues improving at an exciting pace.
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Mero Revolutions: countering CO2 in pre-salt Brazil?

The super-giant Mero field in pre-salt Brazil is not like its predecessors. It has a 2x higher gas cut, of which c45% is CO2. Handling the CO2 is critical. Hence, Petrobras, Shell, TOTAL and partners are pushing the boundaries of deepwater technology. We review four innovations, which can sway the field's value by $6bn.
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Johan Sverdrup: Don’t Decline?

Equinor is deploying three world-class technologies to mitigate Johan Sverdrup’s decline rates, based on reviewing c115 of the company’s patents and dozens of technical papers. Our 15-page note outlines how its efforts may unlock an incremental $3-5bn of value, as production surprises to the upside.
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Scooter Wars?

E-scooters can transform urban mobility, eliminating 2Mbpd of oil demand by 2030, competing amidst the ascent of “electric vehicles” and re-shaping urban economies. These implications follow from e-scooters having 25-50x higher energy efficiencies, higher convenience and c50% lower costs than gasoline vehicles, over short 1-2 mile journeys. Our 12-page note explores the consequences.
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De-Carbonising Carbon?

Decarbonisation is often taken to mean the end of fossil fuels. It is more feasible simply to de-carbonise them, with next-generation combustion technologies. This 19-page note explores our top two opportunities: ‘Oxy-Combustion’ using the Allam Cycle and Chemical Looping Combustion. This means zero carbon coal & gas at competitive economics. Leading Oil Majors are supporting both.
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Shale: Upgrade to Fiber?

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) uses fiber-optic cables to "hear" along a shale well, meter-by-meter, in real time. It is transformational for optimising completions and now gaining critical momentum. Our new note outlines the technology, its maturation and how it can help double shale productivity. Economics work at $15/bbl. The service industry is disrupted. Leading companies in the space are screened.
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Aerial Ascent: why flying cars fly

Aerial vehicles will do in the 2020s what electric vehicles did in the 2010s: going from a niche technology to a global mega-trend that no forecaster can ignore, improving mobility by 100x. The technology is advancing rapidly. Fuel economies and costs are transformational. Aerial vehicles accelerate the energy transition.
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Oil Companies Drive the Energy Transition?

There is only one way to decarbonise the energy system: leading companies must find economic opportunities in better technologies. No other route can source sufficient capital to re-shape the industry. We outline seven game-changing opportunities. Remarkably, leading energy Majors are already pursuing them.
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Shale EOR: Container Class

Will Shale-EOR add another leg of unconventional upside? The topic jumped into the ‘Top 10’ most researched shale themes last year, hence we have reviewed the opportunity in depth. Stranded in-basin gas will improve the economics to c20% IRRs (at $50 oil). Production per well can rise by 1.5-2x. The theme could add 2.5Mbpd to YE25 output.
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LNG in transport: scaling up by scaling down?

Next-generation technology in small-scale LNG has potential to reshape the global shipping-fuels industry. Especially after IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, LNG should compete with diesel. Opportunities in trucking and shale are less clear-cut.
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Can Technology Revive Offshore Oil?

We model our 'top twenty' technology opportunities for offshore oil. These can double deep-water NPVs and improve IRRs 4-5%. To re-excite investment, it is crucial to harness the best technologies.
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Turn the Plastic Back into Oil

Due to the limitations of mechanical recycling, 85% of the world’s plastic is incinerated, dumped into landfill, or worst of all, ends up in the oceans. An alternative, plastic pyrolysis, is on the cusp of commercialisation. We have assessed twenty technology solutions. Excitingly, this nascent opportunity can turn plastic back into oil, generate >30% IRRs on investment, and could displace 15Mbpd of future oil demand.
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U.S. Shale: Winner Takes All?

Shale is a 'tech' industry. The technology keeps improving at an incredible pace. But Permian technology is improving fastest, extending its lead over other basins. There are our conclusions from assessing 300 technical papers across the shale industry in 2018.
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Why the Thunder Said?

Energy transition is underway. Or more specifically, five energy transitions are underway at the same time. They include the rise of renewables, shale oil, digital technologies, environmental improvements and new forms of energy demand. This is our rationale for establishing a new research consultancy, Thunder Said Energy, at the nexus of energy-technology and energy-economics.
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Under-investment risks in the energy transition?

Fears over the energy transition are now restricting investment in fossil fuels, based on our new paper, published in conjunction with the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
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250-years of Energy Disruption?

In 2018, we reviewed 250-years of energy transitions, arguing that another great energy transition is now on hand. It will take a century. We must also improve conventional energy.
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Energy Market Models

Long-Run Oil Demand Model

Our model calculates long-run oil demand to 2050, end-use by end-use, year-by-year, region-by-region across the US, the OECD and the non-OECD; as a function of 25 input variables, which you can flex. It also reflects our modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our own scenario sees a plateau at c104Mbpd in the 2020s.
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The route to net zero: an energy-climate model for 2-degrees

We have modeled the global climate system from 1750-2065, to simplify the science of energy transition. 'Net zero' is achievable by 2050. Atmospheric CO2 remains below 450ppm, consistent with 2-degrees warming. Fossil fuel usage is 10% higher than today, but the fossil fuel industry is transformed.
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Oil markets: the aftermath?

We bound the uncertainties in 2020-25 oil markets using a Monte Carlo approach. Our inputs are c45 supply-demand lines, modeled monthly to 2025, including their volatility. We now see a sharp oil market recovery in the aftermath of the COVID crisis, with unprecedented undersupply.
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COVID-19 Impacts on US Gasoline Demand?

US gasoline is the largest component of global oil demand, at c9% of the market. Hence we have modelled the disruption from COVID-19. -2Mbpd of YoY demand destruction is not inconceivable. But when the market turns, it may also recover very quickly.
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The Ascent of Shale

This model contains our basin-by-basin shale forecasts, covering the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford. We model shale supply collapsing 2Mbpd in 2020-21 due to sub-$30 oil. Doubling well-productivity by 2025 can still unleash 20Mbpd of US liquids production, within cash flow by 2025.
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Scaling Up Renewables and Batteries

Renewables will cap out at 40-50% of electricity grids, based on Monte Carlo analysis of wind, solar and batteries. Beyond 50%, new renewables' curtailment rates surpass 70%, trebling their effective power pricing. Large-scale batteries also increase incentive prices by 5-25x. Natural gas is the best backstop in power grids.
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European Natural Gas Demand Model

European gas demand could rise at its fastest pace in a quarter-century in the 2020s. Our model reflects a dozen input variables in the energy transition: e.g., renewables, electric vehicles, the phase out of coal and nuclear, and LNG-transport fuel. You can stress-test your own assumptions in the data-file.
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Long-Term LNG Demand: technology-led?

This is a simple model of long-term LNG demand, extrapolating out sensible estimates for the world's leading LNG-consumers. On top of this, we overlay the upside from two nascent technology areas, which could add 200MTpa of potential upside to the market. Backup workings are included.
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Long-Term LNG Supply: Path-Dependent?

The long-term LNG supply outlook depends on project-sanctioning. Hence, our model aims to bound the uncertainty, estimating "risked" production volumes from each of 115 LNG facilities. The 2030 supply outlook can be swayed by 250MTpa, contrasting all reasonable projects against the "firm" supply currently locked in. Download the model to stress-test the demand growth needed to balance the market.
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Permian Pipeline Bottlenecks?

This data-file tracks 50 oil and gas pipelines in the Permian basin -- their route, their capacity and their construction progress -- in order to assess the severity of pipeline bottlenecks. Oil bottlenecks are moderate, but will ease into 2020. Gas bottlenecks are more severe and remain so.
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The Energy Mix: 2050 and 2100

This model breaks down 2050 and 2100's global energy market, based on a dozen input assumptions. You can 'flex' these, to see how it will affect future oil, coal and gas demand, as well as global carbon emissions. We are positive on renewables. But fossil fuels retain a crucial role. Natural gas demand could 'treble'.
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Economic Models

Coal-to-gas switching: the economics?

Switching coal-to-gas achieves c20% of the decarbonization to reach net zero CO2 by 2050. This data-file stress-tests the economics. A CO2 price of $10-40/ton is required to incentivize switching amongst pre-existing capacity. The largest challenge is to incentivize new gas-fired capacity, particularly in the emerging world.
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Electric Rail Energy Economics?

This data-file models the energy economics of constructing new electric rail lines, to displace automobile traffic and accelerate the energy transition. Electric rail saves around 1kT of CO2 per track-mile per year. But capex costs are challenging. Double digit returns may be achievable on large lines, outside the United States. CO2 prices do not materially help.
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District heating: the economics?

District heating can lower CO2 intensity, by piping waste heat from power generation or industry to consumers. Costs can vary by a factor of 10x. But our base case estimates a 10% IRR at 10c/kWh retail heating price. Please download the model to flex gas prices, household consumption rates or costs.
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Green hydrogen: the economics?

We have modelled the economics of a green hydrogen project, electrolysing water using renewable energy. An H2 price of $7.5/kg (over $60/mcfe) is required to earn a 10% return. Costs data are captured. The most challenging input variable is not capex cost or efficiency, but utilization rate, if the project is to be truly green.
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Biomass to biofuel, or biomass for burial?

Greater decarbonization at a lower cost is achievable by burying biomass (such as corn or sugarcane) rather than converting it into bio-ethanol. This model captures the economics. Detailed costs and CO2 comparisons are shown under different iterations.
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Solar water heaters: the economics?

Under our base case estimates, a $130/ton CO2 price is required to achieve passable economics and incentivize rooftop solar heaters. Once installed, solar heaters save around 1T of CO2 per household per year and lower water heating bills by 50-80%. This data-file models the economics.
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Restoring soil carbon: the economics?

We model the economics for conservation agriculture to restore soil carbon. 5-30T of CO2 can be sequestered per acre per year, while deflating farm costs by 36-73% and raising yields 10-20%. This would transform crop-growing economics from marginal to material.
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Biogas: the economics?

Biogas screens as a relatively expensive source of energy. Our project model requires $20/mcfe gas, a $50/ton CO2 price and a $50/ton tipping fee, in order to make a 10% unlevered return on a $430/Tpa plant. The economics are most sensitive to tipping fees. CO2 abatement costs via biogas are very high.
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CO2 disposal in geologic formations: the economics?

Costs of disposing of CO2 are extremely variable and project-dependent, ranging from $5-50/ton, with a base case of $22.5/ton. This is the disposal price needed to earn a 10% post-tax IRR, transporting, injecting and monitoring CO2 in the subsurface.
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Financial and CO2 Costs of Heaters, Boilers and Heat Pumps

Residential heating will likely cost 5-20c/kWh, with a CO2 intensity of 0.1-0.4 kg/kWh. Gas fired boilers are lowest cost, even after paying $50/ton for carbon offsets. Electric heat pumps are most efficient. Oil furnaces and electric heaters are higher-cost and higher-carbon. The numbers can be stress-tested in this data-file.
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Direct air capture of CO2: the economics?

We model Direct Air Capture of CO2 is likely to cost $150-300/ton, based on granular data on its capex, opex and energy-intensity. This data-file outlines the process, our key conclusions, and allows you to stress-test your own input assumptions.
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Working remotely: the economics, the opportunity?

The economic benefits of working remotely are between $5-16k per employee per year, as modelled in shit data-file. Hence we quantify that remote work could step up to displace 30% of all commutes from a typical developed world economy by 2030. The conclusions are substantiated using US data.
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Carbon Funds to Decarbonize Natural Gas

Natural gas can be decarbonized for a $1/mcf premium, which is used to seed new forests. Attractive cash flows and economics are modelled here. c50% of the carbon premia are dedicated to a carbon fund. It guarantees future CO2 obligations, optimizes emissions reductions, and finally disburses remaining funds.
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Fully subsea offshore projects: the economics?

The model presents the economic impacts of developing a typical, 625Mboe offshore gas condensate field using a fully subsea solution, compared against installing a new production facility. The result is a c4% uplift in IRRs, a 50% uplift in NPV6 and a 33% reduction in the project's gas-breakeven price. The economics are attractive.
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Oxy-combustion: economics of zero-carbon gas?

Oxy-combustion is a next-generation power technology, burning fossil fuels in an inert atmosphere of CO2 and oxygen. It is easy to sequester CO2 from its exhaust gases, helping heat and power to decarbonise. We argue that IRRs can be competitive with conventional gas-fired power plants.
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Should fuel retail stations sell carbon credits: the economics?

A fuel-retail station can uplift its FCF and valuation by c15-25% by offering CO2-offsets at the point of sale, alongside selling fuel. Gross profits from selling $50/ton carbon credits may be around 3x the typical EBIT margins of retail stations, hence we explore a particular sales model that can double fuel retail NPVs.
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Forests to offset CO2: the economics?

This model quantifies the economics and carbon-costs of a US forestry project, purchasing pasture, and converting it into forest-land. Our base case is for a 10% IRR at a $50/ton carbon price. You can stress test the economics as a function of 23 input variables.
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Utility-scale solar power: the economics?

This model indicates the economics of a typical utility-scale solar project, as a function of a dozen input assumptions. Our base case shows utility scale can be extremely economic. But incentive prices rise c3c/kWh if solar penetration is already high, and 5-7c/kWh in less sunny locations.
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Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells: CCS plus Power? The Economics?

Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells could be extremely promising, generating electrical power from natural gas as an input, while also capturing CO2 from industrial flue gases through an electrochemical process. We model competitive economics. Our model runs of 18 input variables, which you can stress-test.
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Battery Storage Costs: the economics?

This model shows the full-cycle cost of storing a kWh of electricity, across ten technologies that can backstop renewables, including lithium ion batteries and redox flow batteries. Pumped storage currently screens as most economical, by a factor of 3x, while backstopping solar is 3x less costly than backstopping wind.
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Fuel Cell Power Project Economics

This data-file models the economics of constructing a new fuel-cell power project: generating electricity from grey, blue or green hydrogen. The model is based on technical papers and past projects around the industry. Economics look challenging. Our base case estimate is a 24c/kWh incentive price.
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Gas-to-Power Project Economics

This data-file models the economics of constructing a new gas-to-power project, based on technical papers and past projects around the industry. A dozen input variables can be flexed, to stress test economic sensitivity. A strong role for gas is suggested in baseload generation, with costs effectively doubling, if turbines are marginalized merely to backing up renewables.
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Coal-to-Power Project Economics

Greenfield coal-to-power economics vary markedly by region. IRRs can reach 30% in emerging markets with low capex costs, high utilization and no carbon prices. But they fail to return their capital costs under developed world air standards and $25/ton CO2 pricing. Please download the model to stress-test the economics.
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Illustrative LNG Economic Model

Our base LNG case project is likely to earn a c7% real, unlevered IRR, but the result is highly sensitive to c8 in put variables, which you can flex in this illustrative model, such as: LNG prices, Capex/tpa, Opex/mcf, Utilization, thermal efficiency, LNG shipping distance, LNG tanker rates, and liquids cuts.
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Carbon Offsets vs Renewable Diesel?

Could the rise of reforestation initiatives erode the value of renewable diesel? This data-file calculates purchasing CO2-credits to decarbonise diesel could cost 60-90% less than purchasing renewable diesel, at current pricing. Economically justified premia for biofuels are calculated.
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Power from Shore: the economics?

We model the economics of powering an oil platform from shore, using cheap renewable power instead of traditional gas turbines. This can lower upstream CO2 emissions by by around 70%, saving 5-15kg/bbl, for a cost of $50-100/ton. NPVs can be positive with low WACCs and high gas prices, but the primary aim is low-cost decarbonisation.
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Portfolio Construction for Energy Majors?

This data-model calculates risk-adjusted returns for different portfolio weightings in the energy sector, as companies diversify across upstream, downstream, chemicals, corporate; and increasingly, renewables and CCS. A set of optimal portfolio allocations are calculated, which maximise Sharpe ratios. You can also stress-test your own inputs.
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Carbon Capture Costs at Refineries?

Refineries emit 1bn tons pa of CO2, or around 30kg per bbl of throughputs. Hence this model tests the relative costs of retro-fitting carbon capture and storage (CCS), to test the economic impacts. c10-20% of emissions will be lowest-cost to capture. The middle c50% will cost c3x more. But the final 25% could cost up to 5x more. These numbers are compared against typical refining margins.
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Northern Lights CCS: the economics?

We have modeled out simple economics for Northern Lights, the most elaborate CCS scheme proposed by the energy industry (Equinor, Shell, TOTAL). The project involves capturing 1.3-1.5MTpa of industrial CO2, shipping it, piping it 110km offshore, then injecting it 3,000m below Norway's seabed. Costs are expensive. But phase 2 could benefit from scale, offering "CO2 storage" below the European carbon price.
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Shipping in batteries: the economics?

What if it were possible to displace diesel from high-cost, high-carbon island grids, by charging up large batteries with gas- and renewable power, then shipping the batteries? We model the economics to be cost-competitive, while CO2 emissions can be halved. Futher battery cost deflation will also help.
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Guyana: Economic Model

We have modeled the economics for the full development of Exxon, Hess and CNOOC-Nexen's Stabroek block in Guyana, FPSO by FPSO. The data-file includes the field's ultimate value, resource volumes, production volumes, cash flows, capex and per-barrel economics. Sensitivities can also modeled as a function of oil prices, WACCs and resources.
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Drone Delivery: the Energy Economics

We have tabulated energy economics on 15 commercial drones and run the equations of flight on Amazon's "Prime Air" solution. We conclude that drone delivery will use 90% less energy, 99% less cost and 90% lower carbon than is typical in current last-mile truck deliveries. Please download the model for all of the numbers.
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US Shale Gas to Liquids?

Shell filed 42 distinct new patents around GTL in 2018. This data-file reviews them, showing how the broad array of GTL products confers defensiveness and downstream portfolio benefits. Hence, we have modeled the economics of "replicating" Pearl GTL in Texas. Our base case is a 15% IRR taking in 1.6bcfd of stranded gas from the Permian. The risk of an LNG glut is also mitigated.
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CO2-EOR in Shale: the economics

We model the economics for CO2-EOR in shales, after interest in this topic spiked 2.3x YoY in the 2019 technical literature. We see 15% IRRs in our base case, creating $1.6M of incremental value per well, uplifting type curves by 1.75x. Greater upside is readily possible. Most exciting is the prospect for Permian EOR to become the "lowest CO2 oil" in the market.
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US Offshore Wind Economics?

We have modeled Equinor's flagship, 816MW "Empire wind" project, an exciting development off New York, comprising 60-80 x c10MW wind turbines, each as tall as the Chrysler building. Base case IRRs are c5%, at current wholesale power prices of 5.6c/kWh. But they can be uplifted to 10% via power-marketing, cost-deflation, leverage, carbon prices and feed-in tariffs.
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Mero: Economic Model

We have modeled the economics of the Mero oilfield (formerly known as Libra), using public disclosures and our own estimates. Our model spans >250 lines of inputs and outputs, so you can flex key assumptions. In particular, we have tested the impact of different gas bottleneck scenarios on the field’s NPV.
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Dreaming of Electric Frac Fleets?

In 2019, the virtues of switching diesel-powered frac fleets to gas-powered electric have been extolled by companies such as EOG, Shell, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Evolution and US Well Services. The chief benefit is a material cost saving, quantified per well in this data-model, as a function of the frac fleet size, its upgrade costs, its … Continue reading "Dreaming of Electric Frac Fleets?"
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Power Trains? Electric, diesel or hydrogen

This data-file compares diesel trains, electric trains and hydrogen trains, according to their energy consumption, carbon emissions and fuel costs. The energy economics are best for electrifying rail-lines. Hydrogen costs must deflate 25-75% to be cost-competitive.
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Johan Sverdrup: Economic Model

We have modelled the economics of Equinor's Johan Sverdrup oilfield. Our model spans >250 lines of inputs and outputs, so you can flex key assumptions. In particular, we have tested the impact of different decline rates and recovery factors on the field's ultimate value.
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Energy Economics of e-Scooters

This workbook contains all our modelling on the energy economics of e-scooters; a transformational technology for urban mobility. Included are our projections of per-mile costs, energy-economics, battery charging times, new electricity demand and displacement of oil demand.
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Alternative truck fuels: how economic?

We have modelled the relative economics of different truck fuels. The incumbent, diesel, is compared with alternatives, such as hydrogen, LNG, Compressed Natural Gas and LPG, across 35 different metrics. Diesel is still the most economical trucking fuel.
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De-Manning Deepwater?

We estimate a typical deepwater oilfield could save $15-20/bbl by "de-manning", if implemented correctly. This data-file contains our workings, across 15 cost lines, based on recent design work from Technip-FMC.
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Hydrogen Cars: how economic?

We model the relative economics of hydrogen cars, which are c85% costlier than US gasoline in our base case. In Europe, c20% cost-deflation could bring hydrogen cars close to competitiveness.
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Aerial Vehicles Re-Shape Transportation Costs?

This model calculates costs per passenger-kilometer for transportation, based on input costs. Aerial vehicles could compete with taxis as early as 2025. By the 2030s, their costs can be c60% below car ownership.
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Small-Scale LNG liquefaction Costs: New Opportunities?

Small-scale LNG technologies can be economic at $10/mcf, generating 15% pre-tax IRRs, off $3/mcf input gas. This data-file tabulates the line-by-line costs of typical small-scale LNG technologies (SMRs, N2 expansion). Against this baseline, we model a more cutting-edge technology, which preserves strong economics at c25x smaller scale.
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Re-Frac Economics. How much uplift?

Re-fracturing Permian and Eagle Ford shale wells holds potential at higher oil prices. Our base case assumes $0.5M NPV/well uplifts, and $45/bbl breakevens. Higher prices and process-enhancements can unlock $2-3M of NPV10/well. Oxy and Devon lead the technical literature.
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LNG as a Shipping Fuel: the Economics

This data-file provides line-by-line cost estimates for LNG as a shipping fuel, for trucked LNG, small-scale LNG and bunkered LNG. After IMO 2020 regulations buoy diesel pricing, it should be economical to fuel newbuild ships with small-scale LNG; and in the US it should be economical to convert pre-existing ships to LNG.
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Fast-charge the electric vehicles with gas?

There is upside for natural gas, as EV penetration rises: we model that gas turbines can economically power fast-chargers for 13c/kWh. Carbon emissions are lowered by c70% compared with oil. And the grid is spared from power demand surges. Download our data-file to stress-test the sensitivities.
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Offshore Economics: the Impact of Technology

This data-file quantifies the impact that technology can have on offshore economics. A typical offshore oilfield is modelled across 250 lines. The project is then re-modelled capturing our "top twenty" offshore technologies, to quantify the potential improvement: a doubling of NPV6, and a c4-5% improvement in IRR.
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Thermo-Plastic Composite: The Future of Risers?

We estimate thermo-plastic composite riser costs line-by-line. Savings should reach 45%. The file also includes a complete history of TCP installations to-date, as this technology's adoption continues.
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Do “digital” completions lift Permian IRRs?

We have modelled the economic uplift of extra digital instrumentation on a typical Permian well. At $50/bbl oil, c$0.4M of extra instrumentation costs, which add 10% to well-productivity, will raise overall NPV by $1M and IRR by 5pp per well.
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Eni Slurry Technology. A leader for IMO 2020?

This data-file models the economics of Eni's Slurry Technology, for hydro-converting heavy crudes and fuel oils into light products. It is among the top technologies we have reviewed for the arrival of IMO 2020 sulfur regulation, achieving >97% conversion of heavy fractions.
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Plastic pyrolysis delivers strong economics?

>30% IRRs should be attainable converting waste-plastic back into oil, based on disclosures from technology-leaders in the sector. This economic model allows for stress-testing of product prices, input costs, gate fees, capex, opex, utilisation and fiscal regimes.
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Should the shale rigs switch to gas-fuel?

We estimate that a dual-fuel shale rig, running on in-basin natural gas would save $2,300/day (or c$30k/well), compared to a typical diesel rig. This is after a >20% IRR on the rig’s upgrade costs. The economics make sense. However, converting the entire Permian rig count to run on gas would only absorb c100mmcfd: not much … Continue reading "Should the shale rigs switch to gas-fuel?"
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Technology Screens

The Top Public Companies for an Energy Transition

This data-file compiles all of our insights into publicly listed companies and their edge in the energy transition: commercialising economic technologies that can advance the world towards 'net zero' CO2 by 2050. As of April-2020, we have 133 differentiated views on 70 public companies.
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The Top 25 Private Companies for an Energy Transition

This data-file presents the 'top 25' private companies out of several hundred that have crossed our screens since the inception of Thunder Said Energy, looking back across all of our research. Our rankings are based on economics, technical readiness, technical edge, decarbonization and our own depth of analysis.
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Leading Companies in Pipeline Gas Distribution?

This data-file tracks 800 patents innovating pipeline transportation of natural gas, to screen for exciting technologies and companies. 6 publicly listed firms and 6 venture-stage start-ups stood out from the analysis, commercialising next-generation materials, monitoring methods and optimizing gas distribution.
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Leading Companies in Battery Recycling?

This data-file tracks over 6,000 patents filed into battery recycling technology, escalating at a 15% CAGR since 2000. 18 technology leaders are profiled ex-China, including 6 global, large-cap listed companies and 10 private companies, including some exciting, early-stage concepts to improve material recovery and costs.
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Nature-based CO2 offsets: measuring forest and soil carbon?

This data-file screens twenty companies measuring and verifying nature-based carbon offsets, in forests and soils. It includes 5 leading private companies at the cutting edge. Traditionally cumbersome, manual methodologies have evolved rapidly, towards technology-driven, real-time remote sensing, to enable the scale-up of nature-based CO2 offsets.
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Leading Companies Commercialising Heat Pumps?

Heat pumps can halve the CO2 intensity of residential heating. Hence we have screened for the leading companies, focusing in upon 4,000 Western-centric patents from 2017-19. The space is competitive. 7 public companies and 4 private companies stand out, with concentrated exposure to the theme.
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Screen of Large Public Fertilizer Companies

This data-file screens the large, listed fertilizer companies, comparing their CO2 intensity, ROACE, cash flow and recent patent filings. The industry could be disrupted by the rise of conservation agriculture, eroding thee 186MTpa global fertilizer market, which also comprises c1% of global emissions.
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Leading Companies in Redox Flow Batteries

We have compiled a database of 25 leading companies in Redox Flow Batteries, by looking across 1,237 patents since 2017. Exciting progress is visible, with technical maturity rapidly progressing, demonstration facilities under construction and a promise of cost-competitive, long-life, energy storage.
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Aerial Vehicles: Which Ones Fly?

We have updated our database of over 100 companies, which have already flown c50 aerial vehicles (aka "flying cars"), to identify the leading contenders. We categorize each vehicle by fuel type, speed, range, fuel economy and credibility. The data strongly imply aerial vehicles taking off in the 2020s.
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The Top 25 Companies in Plastics Pyrolysis?

This data-file assesses the outlook for 25 plastic pyrolysis companies, operating (or constructing) 100 plants around the world, which use chemical processes to turn plastic waste back into oil. Updated in 1Q20, it is encouraging to see strong TTM progress and Super-Majors entering the fray.
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Blockchain in the Oil & Gas Supply Chain

This datafile tabulates ten examples of deploying Blockchain in the oil and gas industry since 2017; including companies and cost savings. Most prior examples are in trading. For 2020, we are particularly excited by the broadening of Blockchain technologies into the procurement industry, which can deflate shale costs.
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Mitigating methane: what methods?

This data-file screens the methods available to monitor for methane emissions. Notes and metrics are tabulated. Emerging methods, such as drones and trucks are also scored, based on technical trials. The best drones can now detect almost all methane leaks >90% faster than traditional methods. c34 companies at the cutting edge are screened.
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Hybrid horizons: industrial use of batteries?

Gas and diesel engines can be 30-80% less efficient when idling, or running at low loads. This is the rationale for hybridizing engines with backup batteries. Industrial applications are increasing, achieving 30-65% efficiency gains, across multiple industries. In 2018-19, the biggest new horizon has been in oil and gas, including hybrid rigs, supply vessels, construction vessels and even LNG plants.
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Overview of Downstream Catalyst Companies

This data-file tabulates headline details of c35 companies commercialising catalysts for the refining industry, in order to improve conversion efficiencies and lower CO2 emissions. Five early-stage private companies stand out, while we also profile which Majors have recently filed the most patents to improve downstream catalysis.
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Hydrogen opportunities: an overview

We outline the different processes for commercial hydrogen production, including their energy-economics, costs, CO2 emissions, technical readiness and remaining challenges. Our conclusion is that natural gas remains the most viable fuel source on a weighted basis considering cost and carbon emissions.
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Biofuel technologies: an overview?

Biofuels are currently displacing 2.6Mbpd of oil products. But they are not carbon-free, and their weighted average CO2 emissions are only c50% lower. This data-file breaks down the biofuels market across seven key feedstocks, to help identify which opportunities can scale for the lowest costs and CO2, versus others that require further technical progress.
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Next-generation nuclear: the cutting edge?

Can next-generation nuclear technologies realistically be factored into long-run forecasts of energy markets or energy-transition? The impacts of nuclear fusion would be vast, and several companies are making exciting progress, but no facility in our sample has yet surpassed TRL6, achieved an "energy gain" or system stability beyond c10 mS. This data-file contains further detail.
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CO2 Separation: an overview, a breakthrough?

This data-file outlines six leading CO2-separation technologies. For each one, we outline the process, technical maturity, cost, CO2-selectivity, energy-intensity & drawbacks. A >$50/ton carbon price is currently needed to step up CCS. But a major breakthrough is emerging: metal organic frameworks.
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Drones attack military fuel economy?

Swarms of drones are emerging as the most devastating military weapon of the 21st century. This was evidenced by the recent attack on Saudi oil infrastructure. But drones' impact on 0.7Mbpd of global military oil demand could be even more devastating. This data-file quantifies their fuel economy at >1,000 mpge compared to today's fighter jets, tanks, helicopters and planes that achieve
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Make CO2 into valuable products?

What if CO2 was not a waste product, but a valuable commercial feedstock? We have assessed the top 25 companies at the cutting edge, commercialising CO2 into next-generation plastics, foams, concretes, specialty chemicals and agricultural products. Each company is assessed in detail. 10 are particularly exciting. 20 are start-ups. But Aramco, Chevron and Repsol also screen well.
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Subsea Robots: the next generation?

Over 20 next-generation subsea robotics concepts are presented. These electric solutions are increasingly autonomous, they reside subsea and can conduct more thorough inspection/intervention work. Inspection is 2-6x faster, and maintenance costs can be halved, yielding savings of $0.5-1/boe at a typical field. The data-file also summarizes the leading Majors and Service Companies in the space.
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Ventures for an Energy Transition?

This database tabulates c200 venture investments, made by 8 of the leading Oil Majors. Their strategy is increasingly geared to advancing new energies (38% of the investments) and digital (36%). Different companies are assessed.
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Subsea Separation: the elusive history

This database covers all 14 subsea separation projects across the history of the oil industry, going back to the "dawn of subsea" in 1969. The technology has been elusive, with just a handful of applications, the largest of which is 2.3MW. This could change, with the pre-salt partners pioneering an unprecedented 6MW facility at Mero.
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Leading Companies in DAS?

This data-file quantifies the leading companies in Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), the game-changing technology for enhancing shale and conventional oil industry productivity. Operators are screened from their patents and technical papers. Services are screened based on their size and their technology.
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Our Top Technologies for IMO 2020

We review the top, proprietary technologies that we have seen from analysing patents and technical papers, to capitalise on IMO 2020 sulphur regulation, across the world's leading integrated oil companies.
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LNG Process Technologies — an Overview

This file will give a helpful overview of eight main process technologies, which are used in LNG liquefaction. For each one, we summarise how it works, advantages and disadvantages, plus involved-companies.
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Patent Analysis

Autonomous vehicles: where’s the IP?

We screen 37,000 patents into autonomous vehicles, which will likely increase total road travel by c10%. The pace of activity has been rising at a rapid, 37% CAGR. Our data-file notes the most active companies, including tech firms (Denso, MobilEye, TuSimple, Uber, Waymo, Zoox) and auto companies (Ford, GM, Honda, Toyota, Volvo et al).
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Biofuel, green diesel, renewable diesel: where’s the IP?

This data-file tracks 5,000 patents filed into biofuels: by geography, by company and particularly in 2017-20. The pace of research activity has been waning since 2014. Sinopec screens as the technology leader. The data-file also identifies the 'Top Ten' Western companies, ranked by recent patent filings.
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Fiber Optic Cables: Patents and Leading Companies?

This data-file screens for the technology leaders in fiber-optic cables, which are crucial for the digitization of industries and the world's structural shift towards remote-working, based on screening 37,000 patents. Revenues and market shares are summarized for the leaders.
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Hydraulic Fracturing: where’s the IP?

This data-file tracks 17,000 hydraulic fracturing patents filed by geography, by company, by year, since 2010. 2020 has slowed by 6% from peak, with a c36% US slowdown masked by a 33% Chinese expansion. Remarkably, in 2019, the leading Chinese Major filed more patents than the leading US Service provider. The full data-file ranks the companies.
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Solar Energy: Where’s the IP?

We have tabulated 110,000 solar patents. Research peaked in 2012-13, at 11,500 patents/year. It since slowed to c6,000/year. Yet Chinese companies have ramped up to 50% of all the filings, and now comprise 14 out of 2019's top 25 solar patent filers. Majors' patents comprise c0.5% of the total, with one SuperMajor clearly leading.
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Offshore Wind Patents: Majors and Services?

This data-file tracks 20 traditional energy companies' offshore wind patents. Majors and Oil Services generally do not have differentiated wind IP, comprising c2% of offshore wind patents since 2000. 2 Majors and 2 Service companies are identified, however, which are making interesting inroads.
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Fuel Cell Patents: twenty years of progress?

This data-file tabulates the numbers of patents filed into different types of fuel-cells, from 2000-2020, globally and in key geographies: China, Japan, Korea and the US. Research activity peaked in 2008 and has since fallen by 30%. Japanese research has collapsed, while China's has ascended.
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Subsea Services: Patent Leaders?

This data-file captures all the subsea patents from ten of the largest service providers. Priorities have shifted since the oil downturn. The data show who is most innovative and who is best placed, by category. Clear leadership is seen in subsea pumps, wellheads, or umbilicals. Other areas are more competitive.
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Battery Patents: Lithium Deflation, New Breakthroughs?

Continued deflation in lithium ion batteries is suggested by a new record of 26,000 patents filed in 2019, led by China. Redox flow batteries are emerging as the most exciting new technology, doubling since 2014. Interest has been waning in solid state batteries (-57% since 2014) and liquid metal batteries (-67%). This data-file disaggregates the trends.
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Heliogen: concentrated solar breakthrough?

Heliogen has set a new record for concentrated solar power in 2019, generating >1,000C temperatures from an array of c370 hexagonal mirrors, which are precisely controlled using computer vision. This is almost 2x traditional CSP plants. Hence this data-file reviews 21 of Heliogen's patents, finding impressive innovations and ultimate costs.
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Upgrading Catalysts: lower refinery temperatures and pressures?

Refineries are CO2-intensive, as their average process takes place at 450C. But improved catalysts can help, based on reviewing over 50 patents from leading energy Majors, and their requisite temperatures and pressures. Combining all the best-in-class new catalysts, we think the average refinery could save 5kg/bbl of CO2 intensity.
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At the cutting edge of EOR?

This data-file summarises 120 patents into Enhanced Oil Recovery, filed by the leading Oil Majors in 2018. Hence, we can identify clear leaders in EOR technology, and what they are doing at the cutting edge, to improve recovery and lower decline rates. As the world's oilfields age, leading EOR technology will help avoid the higher costs and CO2 intensities of developing new fields to replace them.
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Lubricant Leaders: our top five conclusions

We present our "top five" conclusions on the lubricants industry, after reviewing 240 patents, filed by Oil Majors in 2018. We are most impressed by the intense pace of activity to improve engine efficiencies. Technology will drive margins and market shares, hence three clear market leaders are identified. The relative number of patents into Electric Vehicle Lubricants is also revealing, showing the Majors' true attitudes on electrification.
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The cutting edge of shale technology?

This data-file reviews 300 technical papers from 2018, and a further 350 technical papers from 2019, to identify the cutting edge of shale technology. The YoY trends show an incredible uptick in EOR, machine learning and well spacing studies. Each paper is summarized, categorized by topic, by country, by basin, by company and by 'impact'. The Permian pulled ahead of other basins. The divergence between companies surprised us.
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TOTAL’s Plastic-Recycling Progress?

TOTAL is currently pioneering the greatest advances in plastic-recycling technologies among the Majors, based on our database of 3,000 patents. This data-file covers its comprehensive inter-mixing of chromium-catalysed polyethylene, to reduce defects and increase the strength of post-consumer resins. In turn, this extends their use to films, containers and pipes.
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Well-by-well optimisation?

Well-by-well production optimisation can uplift mature fields' output 5-20%. This data-file summarises the methodology employed by BP, which has filed the most detailed patent we have seen on the topic, from our screen of 3,000 patents around the industry.
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Deploying the Digital Twin

This data-file tabulates 36 recent technical papers into "digital twins" since 2017, in order to understand how the technology is being deployed around the upstream oil and gas industry: principally to improve platform uptime, prevent rig downtime and inspect subsea infrastructure.
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Major technologies to decarbonise power?

Oil Majors will play a crucial role in decarbonising the energy system, while also securing the future of fossil fuels. Hence, to help identify the leading companies, this-data file summarises over 80 patents for de-carbonising power-generation, drawn from our database of over 3,000 patent-filings from the largest energy companies in 2018.
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Inflow Control: Our Top 20 Papers from 2019

This data-file summarises twenty recent papers using inflow control devices: an exciting digital technology to optimise horizontal wells by limiting production from zones that are susceptible to flowing water or gas. Each paper is categorized by company, country, field and focus. Also included are our 'Top 10' facts from the technical literature.
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DAS. At the cutting edge in shale?

This data-file summarises 25 of the most recent technical papers around the industry, using fiber-optic cables for Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS). The technology is now hitting critical mass to spur shale productivity upwards.
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Solar Innovation at Big Oil?

“If you invest with the same technology as everyone else, you may get the same returns as everyone else”. This adage matters for renewables, where we gather single digit IRRs have become customary in solar tenders. Hence, we reviewed 37 distinct solar patents filed across the Oil Majors in 2018. Three ‘leaders’ stood out, each … Continue reading "Solar Innovation at Big Oil?"
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Where is oil industry R&D focused?

Shale comprises c5% of global supply and c20% of global R&D; while offshore comprises c30% of global supply, but <10% of global R&D, according to our estimates. This simple file aims to break down the oil and gas industry’s R&D activities, by category and sub-category, based on the >1,000 patents and >300 SPE papers we … Continue reading "Where is oil industry R&D focused?"
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SPE Papers about Conventional vs Unconventional Reservoirs

This data-file estimates the number of SPE papers that have been published about conventional and unconventional reservoir engineering in the SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering Technical journal, each year since 2007. 2018 was the first year where unconventionals papers eclipsed conventional.
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CO2 Screening

CO2-Cured Concrete: Solidia vs traditional cement?

CO2-cured concrete has c60% lower emissions than traditional concrete, whichis the most widely used construction material on the planet, comprising 4bn tons of annual CO2 emissions, or 8% of the global total. This data-file profiles the CO2 and economic costs of Solidia versus traditional cement, to size the opportunity.
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CO2 from US bio-ethanol plants?

US bioethanol plants produce 1Mbpd of liquid fuels, with an average CO2 intensity of 85kg/boe. Overall, corn-based bioethanol has c40% lower CO2 than oil products. We screened the leaders and laggards by CO2-intensity, covering Poet, Valero, Great Plains, Koch, Marathon and White Energy.
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Coal industry CO2 per ton

Producing a ton of coal typically emits 0.19T of CO2, equivalent to 50kg/boe. The numbers comprise mining, methane leaks and transportation. Hence domestic coal production will tend to emit 2x more CO2 than gas production, plus c2x more CO2 in combustion. However, numbers vary widely based on input assumptions, such as methane lakage rates, btu content and transportation distances, which can be flexed in the model.
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Methane emissions from pneumatic devices, by operator, by basin

Methane leaks from 1M pneumatic devices across the US onshore oil and gas industry comprise 60% of all US upstream methane leaks and 23% of upstream CO2. This file aggregates the data. Ranking the operators reveals 12 with a pressing priority to replace c135,000 medium and high bleed devices, and 6 companies with best-in-class pneumatics.
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CO2 from plastics and petrochemical facilities?

This data-file calculates the CO2 intensity of producing plastics, based on emissions data from over 20 US petrochemical facilities. We find plastic packaging should tend to be c90% lower-CO2 than glass. Efficiency is improved by larger, integrated crackers and petrochemical plants.
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Platform supply vessels: what contribution to CO2?

This data-file calculates the contribution of Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs) to an oil and gas asset's emissions. Our base case estimate is 0.1kg/boe for a productive asset in a well-developed basin. Numbers rise 4x in a remote basin, and by another c4x for smaller fields. 1kg/boe is possible. These emissions can be lowered by 10-20% through by LNG-fuelling or battery-hybridization.
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Oil Sands CO2 Intensity

This data-file quantifies the CO2 intensity of oil sands mining and SAGD, line by line, based on real-world data. We also derive a CO2 curve ranking c2.5Mbpd of production across Alberta, to compare different operators. Steam-oil-ratios explain c60% of the variance in SAGD assets' emissions.
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US CO2 and Methane Intensity by Basin

CO2 and methane intensities are tabulated for 300 assets across 9 basins, to rank the Permian, Bakken, GoM, Alaska, Marcellus, et al; and estimate total CO2 emissions (per barrel) and methane leakage rates across the upstream US oil and gas industry. It is also possible to rank the best companies in each basin, using the granular data.
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Methane Leaks from Downstream Gas Distribution

Methane leakages average 0.2% when distributing natural gas to end-customers, across the US's 160 retail gas networks. Leakages are most correlated with the share of sales to smaller customers. 80 distinct gas companies are ranked in this data-file. State-owned utilities appear to have 2x higher leakage rates versus public companies.
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CO2 emissions from Permian shale production

This model disaggregates the CO2 emissions of producing shale oil, across 14 different contributors: such as materials, drilling, fracturing, supply chain, lifting, processing, methane leaks and flaring. CO2 intensity can be flexed by changing the input assumptions. Our 'idealized shale' scenario follows in a separate tab, showing how Permian shale production could become 'carbon neutral'.
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Methane emissions detract from natural gas?

With methane emissions fully controlled, burning gas is c60% lower-CO2 than burning coal. However, taking natural gas to cause 120x more warming than CO2 over a short timeframe, the crossover (where coal emissions and gas emissions are equivalent) is 4% methane intensity. The gas industry must work to mitigate methane.
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Gas Gathering: how much CO2 and Methane?

Gas gathering and gas processing are 50% less CO2 intensive than oil refining. Nevertheless, these processes emitted 18kg of CO2e per boe in 2018. Methane matters most, explaining 7kg/boe of gas industry CO2-equivalents. This data-file assesses 850 US gas gathering and processing facilities, to screen for leaders and laggards, by geography and by operator.
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US Refiners: CO2 cost curve?

Which refiners have the lowest, and the highest CO2 emissions? To assess this, we have aggregated data on 130 US refineries, from EPA regulatory disclosures. The average US refinery emitted 32kg of CO2 per bbl of throughputs in 2018. Leading companies screen >10% better than average. Others fare 20-50% worse.
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CO2 Intensity of Oilfield Supply Chains

What is more CO2-intensive: the c4,000 truck trips needed to complete a shale well, or giant offshore service vessels (OSVs), which each consume >100bpd of fuel? This data-file quantifies the CO2 intensity of supply-chains, for 10 different resource types, as a function of 30 input variables.
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Permian CO2 Emissions by Producer

This data-file tabulates Permian CO2 intensity, based on regulatory disclosures from 20 of the leading producers to the EPA. The data are disaggregated by company, across 18 different categories, such as combustion, flaring, venting, pneumatics, storage tanks and methane leaks. There are opportunities to lower emissions.
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CO2 Intensity of Drilling Oil Wells?

This data-file estimates the CO2 intensity of drilling oil wells, based on the fuel consumption of different rig types. Drilling wells is not the largest portion of the oil industry's total CO2 intensity. Nevertheless there is a 50x spread between the best barrels at prolific onshore fields and the worst barrels at mature deepwater assets.
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Carbon Costs of IMO 2020?

CO2 intensity of oil refineries could rise by 20% due to IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, if all high-sulphur fuel oil is upgraded into low-sulphur diesel, we estimate. The drivers are an extra stage of cracking, plus higher-temperature hydrotreating, which will also increase hydrogen demands. This one change could undo 30-years of efficiency gains.
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US Refining: energy and CO2 intensity

Emissions of refining a barrel of crude in the US has fallen at a 0.5% CAGR over the past c30-years, from 36kg/boe in 1986 to 31kg/boe in 2018. US refineries are also increasingly fueled by natural gas and merchant steam, while own use of oil, coal and oil products have been phased out.
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Development Concepts: how much CO2?

We tabulate c25 oil projects, breaking down the total tons of steel and concrete used in their topsides, jackets, hulls, wells, SURF and pipelines. Infill wells, tiebacks and FPSOs make the most CO2-efficient use of construction materials per barrel of production, helping to minimise emissions. Fixed leg platforms are higher CO2, then gravity based structures, then FLNG, and finally offshore wind.
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ESP Optimisation Opportunities?

This data-file calculates the financial and carbon costs of running electric submersible pumps (ESPs) at oilfields. They are material, with ESPs fitted on 15-20% of the world's c1M wells. However, we find opportunities to save >25% of CO2 emissions switching ESPs to run on gas and renewables, and a further 25-50% through optimisation initiatives.
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Global Flaring Intensity by Country

This data-file tabulates global flaring intensity in 16 countries of interest. Flaring intensity has reduced by 20% in the past quarter century, to 0.2mcf/bbl, but total flaring remains 13% higher in absolute terms, at 340MTpa of CO2. Leaders and laggard are charted. LNG developments have a clear, positive role in flaring reductions.
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Breakdown of global CO2 emissions

This data-file breaks down global CO2 emissions into 35 distinct categories. The largest single component is passenger vehicles, but this is just 14% of the global total. Another 30 line items each contribute >1% of global CO2, illustrating the complexity of decarbonisation.
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Value in Use: CO2 intensities of household items?

More extensive "sharing" will be enabled by drone delivery technologies and could save $1trn of costs and 100MTpa of CO2 emissions across the entire US. These numbers are illustrated by tabulating the data for 20 common household items, which we estimate are currently used just 20 times in their entire useful lives, thus costing $13 and 1.3kg of CO2 per use, on average.
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Gas industry CO2 per barrel?

We have constructed a simple model to estimate full-cycle CO2 emissions of a gas resource, as a function of its production efficiency, contaminants (CO2 and H2S), and commercialisation (LNG or pipelines) . Compared with the life-cycle emissions of oil, CO2 per boe is seen to be c0-20% lower for LNG and c50-75% lower for piped gas. Leading resource types are shown in the data-file.
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Oil industry CO2 per barrel?

We have constructed a simple model to estimate full-cycle CO2 emissions of an oil resource, as a function of its flaring, methane leakage, gravity, sulphur content, production processes and transportation to market. A c10x energy return on energy investment is estimated. Relative advantages are seen for well-managed resources offshore and in shale; relative disadvantages are seen for heavy crudes, as well as poorly managed gas.
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Vehicle Efficiency: Electrifying?

We have quantified the energy efficiency of 14 different transportation technologies, using real-world data and mechanics equations. Electrification raise auto efficiency 4x, from c15-20% to c60-80%. Novel electric technologies are also unlocking unprecedented fuel economies per passenger mile.
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The World’s Great Gas Fields and Their CO2

This data-file tabulates 30 major gas resources around the world, their volumes, their CO2 content and how the CO2 is handled. This matters because higher CO2 gas fields are more costly to develop into LNG, while CO2 venting is no longer acceptable without CCS. Permian & Marcellus LNG are best positioned.
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Further Data Downloads

Autonomous vehicles: where’s the IP?

US Air Passenger Miles and Fuel Economy?

In 2019, 10M US flights carried 930M passengers 1.1 trn passenger-miles. Fuel economy per passenger mile has risen at a 2.8% CAGR since 2003, as load factors have improved by 0.7pp each year, spreading 0.5 plane miles per gallon across more passengers.
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Urban Traffic by Time and by Travel Speeds?

We have quantified the average speed of automobiles on a dozen highways and expressways flowing into New York City. Traffic is most severe at 4-5pm. The data suggest moderate-severe traffic conditions can curtail average vehicle fuel economy by 15-45% on highways leading in a typical city.
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Long-distance travel: by purpose and mode of transport

This database disaggregates 1.1trn miles of long-distance travel, by purpose, by transportation type and distance category, as context for COVID-19. c30% of long-distance travel is for business, c10% is commuting and c45% is for leisure. These splits vary markedly across planes, trains and automobiles.
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US Vehicle Sales by Fuel Economy: Cars, Trucks and SUVs

Vehicle purchasing decisions are influenced by real oil prices, as shown in this data-file. Below $40/bbl, fuel economy deteriorates at -0.8% per year, as SUVs and pickups gain share. Above $80/bbl, fuel economy improves at 2% pa as consumers prefer sedans and efficient vehicles.
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Forests to Offset CO2: Uptake Rates by Tree Type

CO2 uptake rates from forests are assumed to average 5T/acre/year in our models. Choosing faster-growing tree types can uptake 8T. And fast-growing grasses can uptake 15-30T. This data-file quantifies CO2 uptake rates across 10 different categories based on 75 technical papers and industry sources.
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The structural ascent of online retail?

Online retail sales could structurally accelerate by c9% due to the COVID-19 crisis. A full breakdown of inputs and underlying data are included in this model. Individuals that work from home tend to make c63% more online retail purchases than in situ workers.
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Domestic travel miles: a deep-dive by purpose, vehicles and demographics

Global oil demand is going through an unprecedented disruption. In the short-term, this is due to COVID-19. In the long-term, it is due to the rise of the internet and the energy transition. To contextualise how demand will change, we have aggregated granular data on travel-miles in the US and the UK.
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Floating production systems versus subsea tiebacks: the costs?

This model estimates the line-by-line costs of an FPSO project, across c45 distinct cost lines (in $M and $/boe). We estimate c$750M of cost savings for a tieback, and c$500M of cost savings for a fully subsea development, as compared against a traditional project with a traditional production facility.
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Fugitive methane: what components are leaking?

This data-file looks through 35 technical papers to tabulate methane leaks from different components around the oil and gas industry. The largest are losses of well control (up to 1MTpa), then mid-downstream facilities (up to 10kTpa), compressors (up to 100T), pneumatic devices, wellheads and liquid unloading (up to 10T).
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Energy Costs of Constructing Solar Assets

This data-file quantifies the energy costs of manufacturing solar panels, based on 10 studies and prior projects. We see the average solar project requiring 5MWH/kW, with a 2.3-year energy payback, a c10x energy-return on energy-invested and CO2-intensity of 90kg/boe (for contrast, average oil is c440kg/boe and average gas is c350kg/boe).
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Offshore wind costs are inflating?

This data-file tabulates the capex costs of 35 offshore wind projects in the UK, with 8.5GW of capacity, which have been installed since the year 2000. There is little evidence for deflation. Rather, breakeven power prices appear to have risen at a 2.5% CAGR over the past decade. Our modelling is show in the data-file.
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CO2 emissions from batteries: when do EVs break even?

Producing an electric vehicle's battery emits c9T of CO2. Hence, EVs will ultimately have c40% lower emissions than gasoline vehicles, assuming equivalent c8-10 year lifespans. But it takes around 3.5 years and c50,000 miles for the EV to 'repay' the CO2-costs of producing its battery. This data-file presents the calculations.
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Carbon Offset Costs?

This data-file tabulates the costs of carbon offsets that are being offered to consumers and commercial customers, by 17 companies. Offered carbon offset costs are surprisingly low. But only 10-20% of the supported projects directly offset CO2 by planting new forests.
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Global CCS Projects Database

This data-file captures 65 carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities. 30 are currently running, with capacity to sequester 40MTpa of CO2; which should rise 2.5x by 2030. As costs deflate, CCS is expanding to more countries, more industries and away towards dedicated geological storage.
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Variable Power Tariffs Exacerbate Social Inequalities?

This data-file tabulates the impacts of variable electricity tariffs, after a large-scale US sample. Demand is inelastic, falling just 1% for a 20% price-increase. However, socially "vulnerable" consumers suffered disproportionately, with bills rising 4% more than non-vulnerable consumers.
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US E&Ps turn to ESG?

Of the largest 15 shale E&Ps, the proportion with ESG slides in their quarterly presentations has exploded by 4.5x in the trailing twelve months, from 13% in 3Q18 to 60% in 3Q19. The progress is tracked in this short data-file.
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Carbon Credentials drive Capital Costs?

Lower carbon oil and gas may be increasingly valued by investors, earning higher multiples and lower costs of capital, according to our recent survey. 80-90% find it harder to invest in oil and gas today but view lower carbon barrels as an investable part of the solution. Capital costs are quantified for higher- and lower-carbon barrels.
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Super-Computers at Oil Majors?

This data-file tabulates super-computing capacity possessed by leading companies in the energy industry. Computing capacity has risen 4x since 2016, and 70x since 2009. Main uses are seismic interpretation, reservoir modelling and for operational decision-making, which all increases efficiency. Leading companies are identified in the data-file.
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Solar Use within the Oil Industry?

20 solar projects are being undertaken across the oil industry, to reduce CO2 emissions. But today's project pipeline will obviate less than 1% of oil industry CO2 by 2025. So momentum must build behind these leading examples, which are: steam-EOR in Oman and California, Solar PV in the Permian, and specific companies such as Occidental, Shell, Eni and other Majors.
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The Ascent of Small Scale LNG?

Large LNG projects make large headlines. But we are excited by the ascent of small-scale LNG facilities. At less than 1MTpa each, these facilities can be harder to track, which is the objective of this data-file. We find small LNG liquefaction capacity is set to double, to 25MTpa. Liquefaction facilities for shipping will rise 8x to 4MTpa by 2021. By 2022, Europe will have 5x more small-scale facilities than a decade prior.
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Production profiles: renewables vs oil and gas?

Further deflation of c50-70% is required before the world can truly "re-allocate" capital from fossil fuels to renewables, without causing near-term shortages. This is because fossil fuels' production profiles are 2-3x more front-end loaded; despite comparable costs, breakevens and resource sizes. It is still necessary to attract adequate capital for both supply sources.
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Distribution Costs: Ships, Trucks, Trains and Delivery Vans?

Distributing goods to the typical US consumer costs 1.5bbls of fuel, 600kg of CO2 and $1,000 per annum. The costs will increase 20-40% in the next decade, as the share of online retail doubles to c20%, hence new technologies are needed in last-mile delivery. This data-file provides a full breakdown of the numbers, across container-ships, trucks, rail-freight, cars and delivery vans; allowing you to flex each variable and test your own scenarios.
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Container ships versus trucks and trains

This data-file tabulates the impressive fuel economy of container vessels, as a function of their size and speed. The best examples are 2x more efficient than typical trains and 20x more efficient than typical trucks. Hence, even as the OECD consumes 4kg per person per day of goods shipped from overseas, these container ships account for c0.25% of global CO2.
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The cutting edge of shale technology?

Explaining US gasoline?

Gasoline demand is stalling in summer-2019, down -0.4% YoY vs a prior 15-year trend for 0.4% pa growth. The cause is urban Vehicle Miles Driven, which has slowed 1.4pp, defying historical correlations with GDP and gasoline prices. Possible structural explanations are explored. The full data-file contains monthly data on the drivers of gasoline, going back to 2002.
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Pre-Salt Brazil: FPSO Tracker

This data-file tracks construction progress of 30 FPSOs being deployed in the Brazilian pre-salt. In each case, we quantify the vessel's oil and gas handling capacity, development timing and news flow. Pipeline bottlenecks are emerging, and will only be able to export one-third of the pre-salt gas volumes by 2025. The rest must be re-injected.
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Lula: how much growth left?

This data-file tracks the Lula oilfield, well-by-well, FPSO-by-FPSO, aggregating data from over 100 sources. The data inform our production forecasts for 2H19 and 1H20, which matter for oil markets; and for pre-salt producers. The data show wne FPSO is now constrained by gas-handling. Six other FPSOs are negotiating water-cuts. So is Lula maturing?
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Decline Rates: the consensus?

Global decline rates are currently seen at 5.2% pa in 2020-25, according to our survey. This is lower than historical consensus of 5.7%. Although shale is a headwind, it may be offset by the rise of new digital and offshore technologies. Hence modestly more participants see 2020-25 oil markets as over-supplied.
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TOTAL’s Plastic-Recycling Progress?

Power Trains? Electric, diesel or hydrogen

Can super-computers lower decline rates?

Advanced reservoir modelling can stave off production declines at complex offshore assets. This data-file illustrates how, tabulating production estimates based on a technical paper using Eni's high-speed computer assets. 60% uplifts in LT production and EUR are achieved.
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Technology Leaders Get Bought?

This data-file tabulates the fate of companies that invented the most impactful new oil technologies of the 1980s and 1990s. Nine out of ten were ultimately acquired, for a 3-32% take-over premium. However, timing is long-dated.
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Electric cars slow the energy transition?

Electric Cars are being overtaken by new electric vehicles, which achieve c3x greater decarbonisation per unit of battery material. This is shown by comparing the relative impacts of deploying 400kg of battery materials into a single EV, versus a fleet of c120 electric scooters. It matters as battery materials are a limiting factor in the energy transition.
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Offshore Capex for Technology Leaders?

The lowest-cost offshore projects are not "easy oil". They are the ones being developed with leading technologies. This data-file measures a -88% correlation coefficient between different Major's offshore patent filings in 2018 and their most recent projects' capex costs.
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Boeings and batteries?

A Boeing 747 can fly c13,000km, with a fuel economy of 5-6 gallons/mile and fuel comprising c30% of the take-off weight. We have calculated these numbers from the equations of flight. Apples-to-apples, a battery-powered 747 could only cover 90km today, and perhaps 1,000km with heroic assumptions in the future. Trans-Atlantic travel is immune to electrification.
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China’s Shale Challenge?

This data-file quantifies the most-discussed challenges for developing Chinese shale gas, after a review of the technical literature, as well as the solutions suggested to combat them, and our "top ten conclusions" on Chinese shale.
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Shale Productivity: Our “Top 50” Improvements

Critics still downplay shale productivity. This simple data-file compiles fifty examples of genuine improvements across the industry since 2015. A "one line" summary is provided for each one.
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Who’s Afraid of Aerial Vehicles?

This data-file tabulates consumer attitudes towards aerial vehicles, based on the best perception study we have seen in the technical literature. It shows the influence of geography, income, age, gender, education levels and length of commute; along with top concerns.
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Round Trip Battery Efficiencies

Different batteries have different round trip efficiencies. We see great potential, for example, in electrification of the vehicle fleet, which can achieve c3.5x efficiency gains. We see less potential, for example, backing up the grid with hydrogen, which reduces total system efficiency by c30%.
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A Short History of Travel Speeds

Top travel speeds have increased c100x since pre-industrial times, however in the past 20-years, the trend has reversed. Average mobility is down c6-7% since 2000. This data-file contains our notes and the data-points we have compiled on travel-times throughout history.
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Chemical Looping Progress?

Chemical Looping Combustion could clean up future coal or gas-fired power. But will it work? We have tabulated data from the technical literature on 40 chemical looping combustion pilots. They have run collectively for 10,000 hours. They promise 38% energy efficiencies for zero carbon emissions.
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Explaining Shale: Can Machine Learning Capture Complexity?

Machine learning predicts 78% of the variance in shale well productivity, suggesting $1M/well savings and 19-97% resource uplifts. This data-file presents the correlation matrix between 22 inter-related variables which co-vary with well productivity. The complexity requires "big data" approaches. We see upside from Machine Learning in shale.
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Machine Learning to Optimise Rod Pumps

This data-file summarises progress using machine learning to maximise production from mature wells, by detecting errors and optimising production. There is potential to lower global decline rates by c100kbpd per annum for over a decade, and increase each well's NPV by $0.1M.
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How do LNG costs vary with plant size?

This data-file tabulates a dozen data-points on LNG plant opex, from company disclosures, the technical literature and academic papers. Opex is a function of plant size, and tends to fall by $0.3/mcf for each 10x change in plant capacity.
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LNG plant footprints: compaction costs?

This data file tabulates the acreage footprints of c20 recent LNG projects. FLNG is 20x more compact than a comparable onshore plant, which may elevate costs. To benefit from compactness, we see more potential in novel "liquefaction" technologies.
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Wind: aim higher?

This data-file contains a simple model for how wind speeds and wind power co-vary with altitude. 2x greater power could likely be harnessed by a kite at 300m than a similar-sized turbine at 80m.
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Costs of an LNG fuelling station

We have tabulated the costs of constructing an LNG-fuelling station across 55 cost lines, totalling €1M/site. c$10/mcf may be added to the cost of gas as a fuel.
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Maintenance costs for gas-powered trucks?

Maintenance costs are tabulated by category, for a fleet of compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks, travelling 16M miles across the United States.
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How could plastic-recycling technology impact oil demand?

We see potential for plastic-recycling technologies to displace 15Mbpd of potential oil demand growth (i.e., naphtha, LPGs and ethane) by 2060, compared to a business-as-usual scenario of demand growth. In a more extreme case, oil demand for conventional plastics could halve. This simple model allows you to vary the input assumptions and derive your own outputs.
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Plastic landfill costs by country

This data-file tabulates the most likely costs of placing waste-material (e.g., plastic) into landfill, by country. The landfill taxes are a strong incentive for plastic recycling technologies. For example, a c$65/ton gate fee improves the IRRs or plastic pyrolysis by c15pp, all else equal.
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Global plastics: an overview?

A breakdown of the global plastics industry, from several recent academic papers. This data-file shows the rise of global plastic use since 1950, recent plastic use by end-product, recent plastic use by end-plastic (e.g., polyethylene, polypropylene, polyamides, PET, PVC), and plastics’ fate after their use. This includes the proportion of plastics that are improperly disposed … Continue reading "Global plastics: an overview?"
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Oil demand for chemicals, by product, by region

This data-file breaks down the world’s use of oil to make chemicals (i.e., plastics). It’s split across 13 different products, and the ‘Top 10’ countries/regions. The estimate year is 2016.
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Global shipping and the switch from fuel oil?

The 240MTpa shipping-fuels market will be disrupted from 2020, under IMO sulphur regulations. Hence, this data-file breaks down the world’s 100,000-vessel shipping fleet into 13 distinct categories. We see 40-60MTpa upside to LNG demand from 2040.
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Production Losses at a Giant Offshore Oilfield

This data-file breaks down the production losses at a giant offshore oilfield, across five categories and ten sub-categories. They are addressable with digital oilfield technologies, as shown by our notes. Advanced algorithms such as BP’s Apex solution, are capable of reducing the losses — particularly in the largest categories. Halving them could increase output by … Continue reading "Production Losses at a Giant Offshore Oilfield"
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Oil Major Cash Flow and Operating Leverage

This data-file tabulates the approximate cash flow, capex and 'pre-tax costs' of Oil Majors, to illustrate the group's operational leverage. Every $1 of free cash flow comes after $3 of cost.
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Where will Permian production peak?

This model shows how the Permian's ultimate production plateau will be determined by the rig count, drilling efficiency, well productivity and decline rates. It includes a 10Mbpd scenario where productivity flatlines from here; and our 20Mbpd scenario where productivity continues rising at an 11% CAGR. Economic assumptions are also included.
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The Energy Mix: 2050 and 2100

Shorter Insights

US shale: the quick and the dead?

It is no longer possible to compete in the US shale industry without leading digital technologies. This 10-page note outlines best practices, based on 500 patents and 650 technical papers. Chevron, Conoco and ExxonMobil lead our screens. Disconcertingly absent from the leader-board is EOG, whose edge may have been eclipsed.
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LNG: deep disruptions?

There is now a potential 100MTpa shortfall in 2024-26 LNG markets. The current COVID-crisis will likely cause a further 15-45MTpa of supply-disruptions (delays in 2022-24, deferrals in 2024-7). This 6-page note draws out our top insights from looking line-by-line through 120 LNG projects.
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More dangerous than coronavirus? The safety case for digital and remote operations.

Remote working, digital de-manning, drones and robotics -- all of these themes will structurally accelerate in the aftermath of the COVID crisis. This short note considers the safety consequences. They are as significant as COVID itself.
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Turn the Plastic into Roads?

The opportunity is emerging to absorb mixed plastic waste, displacing bitumen from road asphalts. We find strong economics, with net margins of $200/ton of plastic, deflating the materials costs of roads by c4%. The challenge is scaling the opportunity. Leading companies and projects are profiled in our 6-page note.
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Qnergy: reliable remote power to mitigate methane?

This short note profiles Qnergy, the leading manufacturer of Stirling-design engines, which generate 1-10 kW of power, in remote areas, where a grid connection is not available. The units are particularly economical for mitigating methane emissions, with a potential abatement cost of $20/ton.
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Do Methane Leaks Detract from Natural Gas?

Some commentators criticize that methane leaks detract from natural gas as a low-carbon fuel in the energy transition. Leaking 2.7-3.5% of natural gas could make gas "dirtier than coal". However, when considered apples-to-apples, we find natural gas value chains leak 30% less methane than oil and 70% less methane than underground coal mining. This note explains the data.
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If a tree falls in a forest…

Forestry projects can sequester 15bn tons of CO2 per annum, helping to accommodate 400TCF of gas per year and 85Mbpd per oil in a fully decarbonized energy system by 2050. Economics are competitive. But what happens when the forests are cut down? This short note addresses the pushback.
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Climate science: staring into the sun?

Our research focuses on technologies that can deliver an energy transition. But it is always important to stress-test your premises, and consider what new evidence could unseat them. Hence this note looks at the sun, the largest uncertainty in climate modelling, and how new data from new satellites could shift scientific and market sentiment.
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Could new airships displace trucks?

In 2019, TOTAL co-filed two patents with an airship-technology company, Flying Whales, aiming to lower the logistical costs of moving equipment into remote areas. Strong applications are seen in the wind industry. This short note assesses the opportunity, and whether these new airships could displace trucks, or lower diesel demand.
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Chevron: SuperMajor Shale in 2020?

SuperMajors’ shale developments are assumed to differ from E&Ps’ mainly in their scale and access to capital. Superior technologies are rarely discussed. But new evidence is emerging. This 11-page note assesses 40 of Chevron’s shale patents from 2019, showing a vast array of data-driven technologies, to optimize every aspect of shale.
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Thunder Said Energy: CO2 Neutral in 2019

It is important for us to practice what we preach. Hence in 2019, we reduced our CO2 by 78% compared with a typical research/consulting firm, and purchased CO2-offsets for the remaining 5.6 tons (chart above). This 9-page note contains granular data on professional service firms’ emissions and opportunities to reduce them.
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Offshore Wind: Tracking Turbines with Satellites and Machine Learning?

Equinor has patented a machine learning method to optimise offshore wind farms using satellite imagery or pictures from drones. We estimate a 0.5% IRR uplift on offshore wind projects. As Oil Majors move into renewables, it is important to be leaders not followers.
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The Most Powerful Force in the Universe?

Investors may suffer if they do not consider the energy transition. But they may suffer much more if they consider it, and get the answer wrong. The best way to drive the energy transition will be to maximise carbon-adjusted investment returns.
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Energy Transition: Polarized Perspectives?

Last year, we appeared on RealVision, advocating economic opportunities that can decarbonize the energy system. The "comments" surprised us, suggesting the topic of energy transition is extremely polarized. Historically, such ideological polarization has not ended well. This re-affirms the need for energy technologies.
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EOG’s Digitization: Pumped-Up?

EOG patented a new digital technology in 2019: a load assembly which can be built into its rod pumps: to raise efficiency, lower costs and lower energy consumption. This 8-page note reviews the patent, illustrating how EOG is working to further digitize its processes, maximise productivity and minimise CO2 intensity.
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Satellites: the spy who loved methane?

Satellite analysis is gaining momentum, and features in three of our recent research reports. A step-change in resolution is helping to mitigate methane. It is possible to track Permian completions from space. We also suspect renewable growth may slow. More satellite images should reshape commercial research as costs deflate.
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Will renewable growth slow down from 2020?

The growth of renewables has been revolutionary, with wind and solar emerging towards the bottom of the global cost curve, scaling up at 270TWH pa. However, we find unsettling evidence the market could slow by c15% from 2020, plateauing in heartland geographies such as California, Germany and the UK.
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Internet vs Oil: CO2 contrast?

This short note outlines our top conclusions about the energy consumption of the internet, which now comprises c2% of global electricity and 0.7% of global CO2. In the next decade, remarkably, we find the CO2 footprint of powering the internet could surpass that of producing oil or gas.
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CO2-Labelling for an Energy Transition?

CO2-labelling is the most important policy to accelerate the energy transition: making products' CO2-intensities visible, so they can sway purchasing decisions. Expect 4-8% savings across global energy, which will lower the net costs of decarbonisation by $200-400bn pa. Digital technologies also support wider eco-labelling compared. Leading companies are preparing their businesses.
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New Diverter Regimes for Dendritic Frac Geometries?

The key challenge for the US shale industry is to continue improving productivity per well. The process is increasingly being driven by Oil Majors and using data. This is illustrated by BP's latest fracturing fluid patents, which optimise successive diverter compositions to create dendritic fracture geometries, to enhance stimulated rock volumes.
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Disrupting Agriculture: Energy Opportunities?

Precision-engineered proteins are on the cusp of disrupting the agriculture industry. The science is improving rapidly, to create meat-substitutes with vastly superior nutrition, taste and costs. We explore the energy consequences of "replacing cows", with potential for 2bcfd upside to US gas demand, to offset the CO2 of all US oil demand, increase US biofuels to 6Mbpd and further Energy Major venture opportunities.
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Drone Attacks on Energy Assets?

A devastating new wave of drone technologies could place the world's largest and most vulnerable energy infrastructure into the firing line of aggressors. This short note reviews the ten facets of drone swarms that make them so dangerous. Hence we are increasingly concerned over supply disruptions in the 2020s.
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Do refineries become bio-refineries?

Will the future of refineries be to convert to bio-refineries, in order to meet a growing need for decarbonised fuels? This note reviews the opportunities and challenges, based on patent filings from Eni: the industry leader in bio-refinery technology. Costs are 80% below newbuilds, but we question ultimate scale and the ability to lower palm oil inputs.
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The Ascent of LNG?

This note outlines 200MTpa of potential upside to consensus LNG demand, due to emerging technologies, in power and transportation. LNG use could thus compound at an 8% CAGR to 800MTpa by 2030, justifying greater investment in unsanctioned LNG projects.
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CO2-EOR in shale: the holy grail?

What if there were a technology to sequester CO2, double shale productivity, earn 15-30% IRRs and it was on the cusp of commercialization? Promising momentum is building, at the nexus of decarbonised gas-power and Permian CO2-EOR. This short note highlights the economic opportunity.
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Does Technology Drive Returns?

30-60% of Oil Majors' ROACE is explained by their technologies. This is our finding from correlating 3,000 oil patents versus returns on capital. Technology leaders can generate 2x higher corporate ROACEs. Downstream segments are most sensitive.
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New Risers for pre-salt Brazil?

Petrobras has patented next-generation riser designs, to handle sour-service crude from pre-salt Brazil. This is needed after riser-failures at Lula. But complexity is an order of magnitude higher for Petrobras's new solution. A simpler alternative is the growing potential from thermo-plastic composite pipe.
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De-Carbonising Cars. Can Oxy-Combustion Save Gasoline?

Could next-generation combustion technologies be used to decarbonise oil-fired transportation, raising the trajectory of long-term oil demand? We review a leading oil company's patents to commercialise oxy-combustion in vehicles, along with the challenges. The outlook remains more positive for gas than for oil.
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Permian CO2-EOR: pushing the boundary?

We see enormous opportunity in CO2-EOR in the Permian basin. Occidental Petroleum has now published laboratory analysis, informing its models and de-risking the technique. This short note profiles our "top five" conclusions from the paper.
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Robot delivery: Unbelievable fuel economy…

Small delivery robots can achieve 100-400x higher fuel economies than conventional, oil-powered vehicles. We profile Starship, whose fleet is now covering c400km/day. Energy demand in transportation is evolving.
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Shale: restoring downstream balance? New opportunities in ethylene and diesel.

Shale's light mix is often criticised for distorting oil product markets. But distortions create opportunities for Integrateds. This note explores one opportunity, patented by Chevron, to convert ethylene into diesel.
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Shell drives LNG in transport?

Shell is the most active Major in driving new LNG demand. In 2019, it patented a new sub-cooler to improve the ascent of LNG in transportation. Our note explains the challenges of boil-off and gas-weathering, how they are addressed by Shell's new technology, and eight resulting advantages.
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Greenfield LNG: Does Exxon have an edge?

ExxonMobil has developed industry-leading technology for greenfield LNG cosntruction, particularly in remote geographies. This conclusion follows from reviewing 3,000 patents. We analyse its edge the and resultant opportunities, as new projects progress in Mozambique, PNG and on the US Gulf Coast.
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Lost in the Forest?

In 2019, Shell pledged $300M of new investment into forestry. TOTAL, BP and Eni are also pursuing similar schemes. But can they move the needle for CO2? In order to answer this question, we have tabulated our ‘top five’ facts about forestry. We think Oil Majors may drive the energy transition most effectively via developing … Continue reading "Lost in the Forest?"
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Good Batteries vs Bad Batteries?

A "good battery" enhances the efficiency of the total energy system. A "bad battery" diminishes it. Hence we have quantified battery quality, ranging from 3.5x efficiency gains for EVs to c30% efficiency losses for grid-scale hydrogen. This distinction must not be overlooked in the world's quest for cleaner energy.
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LNG Ships: a new record-setter?

Multiple records have just been broken for an LNG-powered ship, as construction completed at Heerema's "Sleipnir" crane-lift vessel. It is a remarkable, LNG-powered machine, substantiating the 40-60MTpa upside we see for LNG demand, from fuel-intensive ships, after IMO 2020.
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Digital Deflation: How Hard to Save $1/boe?

A typical operator can readily save $1/boe via continued, digital deflation. Our numbers are derived from a new case study from Cognite, which is among the leaders in oilfield digitization, collaborating with cutting-edge E&Ps. Digitization remains the most promising opportunity to improve offshore economics.
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Perovskites: Lord of Light?

Perovskites are the fastest-improving innovation in solar. The best test-cells hit a new record of 28% efficiency last year, with line-of-sight to the mid-30s, i.e., 2x more efficient than today's silicon photovoltaics. We review the opportunities and challenges. A Major is at the cutting edge.
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IMO 2020. Fast Resolution or Slow Resolution?

The downstream industry is debating whether IMO 2020 sulphur regulations will be resolved quickly or slowly. We think the market-distortions may be prolonged by under-appreciated technology challenges, which mandate large, increasingly hard-to-finance refinery overhauls.
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Patent Partners: Pairing Up?

This note contains our ‘Top Five’ conclusions about the Oil Majors’ research partnerships, drawing off our database of 3,000 oil company patents. Different companies have importantly different approaches. We can quantify this, by looking at the number of patents co-filed with partners (chart above).
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Is the world investing enough in energy?

The IEA has cautioned that global energy investment may be falling short. Spending of $1.6trn in 2018 may need to rise $220-270bn pa by 2025-30. We argue the best way to attract this capital is through the opportunities in better energy technology.
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TRLs: When does technology get exciting?

We categorised 300 of the Oil Majors' technologies according to their technical maturity. The most exciting are those on the cusp of commercialisation, not simply the most mature. We found Majors that work on earlier-stage technologies also had better overall technologies. Value can be maximised by a rich funnel of opportunities.
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Two Majors’ Secret Race for the Future of Offshore Wind?

Tethered kites access 2-4x more wind-power at 50-90% lower costs than turbines. Intriguingly, Exxon and Shell are now at the forefront of the new opportunity.
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Mozambique LNG: Can Chevron create more value?

It would be unwise to under-estimate the complexity of creating a new LNG province, with a 50MTpa prize ultimately on the table in Mozambique. Hence we have tabulated our 'top ten' examples of Chevron's LNG-relevant technologies, from reviewing over 200 of the company's patents so far.
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EOG’s Completions: Plugged-In?

EOG has patented a system to run pressure and temperature sensors in its frac plugs, which are then retrieved at the surface, providing low cost data on each frac stage. The data improve subsequent stages. We estimate the NPV uplifts at $1M/well.
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Is gas a competitive truck-fuel?

We have assessed whether gas is a competitive trucking fuel, comparing LNG and CNG head-to-head against diesel, across 35 different metrics (from the environmental to the economic). Total costs per km are still 10-30% higher for natural gas, even based on $3/mcf Henry Hub, which is 5x cheaper than US diesel.
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Machine Learning on Permian Seismic?

Pioneer Natural Resources is improving the accuracy of its Midland basin depth-models by up to 40%, using a machine-learning algorithm to re-calibrate its seismic from well logs. Faster drilling and better production rates should follow.
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Who else wants more shale?

The Majors' deepening interest in shale was illustrated by Chevron's $50bn acquisition of Anadarko. To see who else wants more shale, we have counted the number of shale research-studies, by company, in our databases from 2018.
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