Wind
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Wind power: decline rates?
This data-file aggregates wind generation by facility, across the US, at 1,500 wind farms, going back 25-years. Wind power decline rates average 1.1% per year, then accelerate to 2% per year in years 10-20. However wind generation is also noisy, typically varying +/- 7% YoY. This matters for the economics and ultimate share of wind.
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Wind turbine manufacturers: market share over time?
This data-file tracks wind turbine manufacturers, their market shares and their margins over time. By 2025, fifteen companies account for 95% of global wind turbine installations. This includes large Western incumbents, and a growing share for Chinese entrants, which now comprise 70% of the total market, with phenomenal growth in 2025 and continued low selling…
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Wind and solar capacity additions?
Global wind and solar capacity additions reached 630GW pa (AC-basis) in 2025, which is 3x 2020 levels and 10x 2011 levels. The pace of gross wind and solar capacity additions can rise by a further 3x by 2050, bringing wind and solar to 55% of a greatly expanded global power grid by 2050. Most of…
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Wind and solar: total resource estimates?
This 16-page report estimates the total global resource potential from solar and wind. Solar resources are 20-100x larger than for wind. And more economical. Wind turbine wake losses are a growing controversy. Hence, will future renewables growth shift more towards solar?
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Wind turbines: wake losses?
Wind turbine wake losses would deprive a downstream wind turbine of 70% of its generation capacity at 350m immediately downwind of a modern wind turbine, 50% at 700m, 40% at 1km, 20% at 2km and 10% at 4km. This is based on the Jensen model and case studies tabulated in this data-file. More recently, some…
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Renewable-heavy grids: total system costs?
Renewables can have similar LCOEs as conventional generation sources. Yet ramping renewables to c50% of a developed world power grid inflates total system costs by at least 50%. This is because renewables require back-ups, additional T&D and power electronics. This 16-page report aims to quantify the total system costs of renewable-heavy grids, and their implications.
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New energies deflation: myths and legends?
How much of the market’s current disenchantment with new energies can be attributed to persistently high costs, which failed to deflate as much as hoped? This 15-page report reviews the evidence. Cost trajectories have varied. CCS and hydrogen cost more than initially advertised. Wind costs recently re-inflated. Yet, solar, electronics and lithium ion batteries remain…
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Onshore wind: the economics?
The levelized cost of onshore wind is estimated in this economic model, at 5-7c/kWh to generate 5-10% levered IRRs on new wind projects costing $1,000-3,000/kW. The model also contains a granular breakdown of wind capex costs, operating costs, and other economic assumptions for wind projects.
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Wind energy: beyond good and evil?
Wind economics are not good or bad in absolute terms. They depend on capacity factors, which average 26% globally, but can range from 10% to 60%. In the best locations, levelized costs are below 4c/kWh. Hence this 16-page note explores global wind capacity factors and updates our wind outlook by region throgh 2050.
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Wind turbine capacity factors: by country, by facility?
Wind turbine capacity factors average 26% globally. But they vary from c20% in non-windy countries to 45% in the windiest countries. And they also vary within countries, with a normal distribution and a standard deviation of 7-12%. This data-file maps capacity factors of wind power generation.
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