Fiber Optic Cables: Patents and Leading Companies?

This data-file screens for the technology leaders in fiber-optic cables, which are crucial for the digitization of industries and the world’s structural shift towards remote-working.

The file starts by tracking 37,000 patents filed into fiber optic cabling, where the pace of research has risen at a 14% CAGR since 2009, with 75% of 2019’s patents filed in China and 18% in the US.

The 2019 data are shown more granularly in the ‘2019’ tab, aggregating descriptions of 4,000 patents and the companies behind them.

From these patents, we identify and evaluate the largest listed companies in fiber-optics, including a helpful profile of each company, their revenues, and the percent of their revenues  from fiber-optic cables.

Forests to Offset CO2: Uptake Rates by Tree Type

Nature-based solutions can among be the most effective ways to offset global CO2, with forests offsetting CO2 for $17-50/ton, decarboning liquid fuels for <$0.5/gallon and natural gas for $1/mcf. These numbers are based off of half-a-dozen studies, suggesting c5T of CO2 uptake per acre of forest per year.

This data-file shows CO2 uptake rates could be materially higher. CO2 absorption 8T/acre/year for three promising tree types, and as much as 15-30+ T/acre/year using faster-growing grasses. This would improve the economics of forests even further.

This data-file tabulates c75 data-points from technical papers and industry reports on different tree and grass types, their growing conditions and their rates of CO2 absorption. Included are oaks, pines, poplars, eucalyptus, mangroves, bamboos, sugarcane and elephant grasses.

The structural ascent of online retail?

Online retail could structurally accelerate by c9% due to the COVID-19 crisis, as is projected in this model. A full breakdown of inputs and underlying data are included. Individuals that work from home tend to make c63% more online retail purchases than in situ workers.

Working remotely: the economics, the opportunity?

We quantify the economic benefits of working remotely between $5-16k per employee per year, as a function of income levels, looking line-by-line across time savings, productivity gains, office costs and energy costs. The model allows you to flex these input assumptions and test your own scenarios.

Based on our research, we think the proportion of remote work could step up from 2009 and 2017 levels (quantified in the file) to displace 30% of all commutes by 2030. This conclusion is justified, by summarizing an excellent technical paper, and a granular breakdown of jobs around the US economy, looking profession-by-profession.

COVID-19 Impacts on Global Oil Demand?

The impacts of COVID-19 on global oil demand are extremely uncertain. However, this model aims to help you bound the uncertainties, disaggregating 2020 oil demand in the developed and the developing world, as a function of some simplifying assumptions: GDP declines, flight cancellations, travel reductions and the pace of the crisis’s resolution.

Our base case forecast sees -11.5Mbpd of YoY demand destruction to be likely in 2Q20, averaging 6.5Mbpd of demand destruction in 2020. We can also construct scenarios where 2Q20 declines run past -20Mbpd YoY. To interrogate our assumptions, or stress-test your own scenarios, please download the model.

 

COVID-19 Impacts on US Gasoline Demand?

US gasoline is the largest component of global oil demand, at c9Mbpd, or c9% of the global market. Hence we have modelled how it could be impacted by COVID-19, looking line by line, across a granular, c100-line breakdown.

A -2Mbpd contraction is possible in 2Q20, if 34% of all US workplaces close temporarily and 50% of non-essential travel is cancelled. This is an extreme scenario, commensurate with a c5pp slowdown in US GDP,  comparable to the “Great Recession” of 2008-09 in economic terms, but with 8x deeper demand destruction for gasoline.

Such steep declines are not inconceivable, from a modelling perspective. They could underpin a c10Mbpd YoY collapse in global oil demand.

How quickly could demand rebound? Very minimal long-term impacts persist from 2022 onwards, with demand destruction of just 60kbpd in 2023-24. We can even construct scenarios where US gasoline demand surprises to the upside, rising +0.5Mbpd, if COVID is brought under control. So when the oil market does turn, it may turn very quickly.

To run your own scenarios, please download the model.

Domestic travel miles: a deep-dive by purpose, vehicles and demographics

Global oil demand is going through an unprecedented disruption. In the short-term, this is due to COVID-19. In the long-term, it is due to the rise of the internet and the energy transition. To contextualise how demand will change, we have aggregated granular data on travel-miles in the US and the UK.

This data-file breaks down all miles travelled by individuals in the US and UK, according to 20 different categorizations on 20 distinct tabs: by purpose, by vehicle type, by journey distance, by age, by income category, and by urban location; plus we assess remote working’s impact on commuter-miles, and internet retail’s impact on shopping-miles.

The data are derived from the US National Household Travel Survey, which was last conducted in 2017, collecting a day’s data across 1M journeys from 250,000 individuals in the United States; and the UK Department of Transportation’s National Travel Surveys, which interviews and tabulates travel-diaries from 14,000 – 20.000 individuals each year since 2002.

For TSE clients, we will be happy to run further, bespoke data and charting requests. Please contact us if this would be useful.

Carbon Funds to Decarbonize Natural Gas

This economic model illustrates a carbon fund to decarbonize natural gas by planting new forests, while also generating passable economics, attracting investment and incentivizing CO2 savings.

The mechanics are that the fund collects carbon credits, which are bundled into the contractual sales price of natural gas (typically costing less than $1/mcf). Part of the carbon credits are used to plant forests. The remainder are kept as financial reserves, to ensure the fund can meet its future offset obligations. Once these obligations have been met, the financial reserves can be disbursed to the fund’s limited partners.

Please download the data-file to stress-test forestry costs, carbon pricing, gas pricing and optimisation opportunities.

Coal industry CO2 per ton

This data-file quantifies and disaggregate the CO2 emissions from a typical coal mining operation, across mining processes, coal-processing, methane emissions and freight/transportation.

We estimate that producing a ton of coal emits 0.19T of CO2, equivalent to 50kg/boe. The data are based on USGS technical papers, EPA disclosures from US coal mines and EIA disclosures on mine sizes and coal heat contents.

The conclusion is that domestic coal production will tend to emit 2x more CO2 than domestic natural gas production,  in addition to coal combustion emitting around 2x more CO2 than gas combustion.

However, numbers vary widely based on input assumptions, such as methane lakage rates, btu content and transportation distances, which can be flexed in the model.

Methane emissions from pneumatic devices, by operator, by basin

Methane leaks from 1M pneumatic devices across the US onshore oil and gas industry comprise 60% of all US upstream methane leaks and 23% of all upstream CO2. This data-file aggregates data on 563,000 pneumatic devices, from 300 acreage positions, of 200 onshore producers in 9 US basins.

The data are broken down acreage position by position, from high-bleed pneumatic devices, releasing an average of 4.2T of methane/device/year to pnuematic pumps and intermediate devices, releasing 1.5T, through to low-bleed pneumatic devices releasing 160kg/device/year.

It allows us to rank operators. 12 companies are identified, with a pressing priority to replace c135,000 medium and high bleed devices. 6 companies are identified with best-in-class use of pneumatics (chart below).

A summary of our conclusions is also written out in the second tab of the data-file.  For opportunities to resolve these leaks and replace pneumatic devices, please see our recent note on Mitigating Methane.