This model estimates European gas demand in the 2020s, as a function of a dozen input assumptions, which you can flex. They include: renewables’ growth, the rise of electric vehicles, the phase out of coal and nuclear, industrial activity, efficiency gains and LNG-transport fuel.
Our conclusionis that European gas demand will likely grow at its fastest pace since the early-2000s, largely driven by the electricity sector.
The data-file also contains granular data, decomposing gas demand across 8 major categories, plus 13 industrial segments, going back to 1990 (albeit some of the latest data-points are lagged).
Please download the modelto run your own scenarios…
This data-file tabulates the costs of carbon offsets that are being offered to consumers and commercial customers, by 17 companies. Offered carbon offset costs are surprisingly low.
Are they real? The file also tabulates 1,600 carbon offset projects which are assured by agencies such as the ‘Verified Carbon Standard’, Gold Standard and Green-E. This helps lend credibility to the companies in the data-file.
However, we estimate only c10-20% of the projects directly offset CO2 through planting new forests, another c15-30% are spent on forest conservation, and the remaining 50-70% are broader (i.e., charitable donations to finance renewable energy projects).
This data-file quantifies the CO2 intensity of oil sands production: disaggregating averge emission factors for both mining operations and SAGD. Emissions are estimated for running trucks, bitumen extraction, steam-flooding, upgrading, methane leaks, flaring, et al; based on real-world data.
A CO2 curvecan also be derived from the data, ranking c2.5Mbpd of production across Alberta, in order to compare different facilities and different operators. Steam-oil-ratios explain c60% of the variance in SAGD assets’ emissions.
This data-file tabulates the number of patents filed into different types of batteries, by year and by geography.
Continued deflation in lithium ionbattery costs is suggested by the 26,000 patents filed in 2019, which has doubled in the past 5-years, led by China (two-thirds of the patents).
Redox flow batteries are emergingas the most exciting new technology, with patent activity doubling since 2014, to 894 in 2019, also led by China, followed by the US. Hence we include notes on ESS Inc.
Interest has been waningin solid state batteries (-57% since 2014) and liquid metal batteries (-67%).
A descriptionof each battery type is shown in the ‘battery types’ tab. Download the data-file for a break-out of the data by country.
This data-file captures 65 carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities around the world, of which c30 are currently running, with capacity to sequester 40MTpa of CO2. Capacity should rise 2.5x by 2030.
As costs deflate, CCS is expanding to more countries, more industries and away from EOR towards dedicated geological storage (charts above).
The full data-fileincludes each facility, its location, involved companies, construction status, volumes (MTpa), CCS process, industrial source of CO2, start-up, storage type, capex ($M where available), capex cost ($/ton where available) and 2-3 lines of notes per facility.
This data-file tabulates the impacts of variable electricity tariffs, after switching 4.622 households over from fixed electricity tariffs, across a large-scale sample in the United States. This theme is increasingly important as intermittent renewables reach saturation in developed world power grids.
Residential electricity demand is inelastic, with a 20% price-increase yielding a mere 1% reduction in end-demand. Peakload demand fell by 4%.
However, socially “vulnerable” consumers suffered disproportionately, only achieving a 2% decrease in peakload demand. Hence, while monthly power prices rose by 18% for non-vulnerable consumers, they rose by 22% for vulnerable consumers. The results, data and study are in the data-file.
CO2 and methane intensities are tabulated for 300 distinct company positions across 9 distinct basins in this data-file. Using the data, we can aggregate the total CO2 in (kg/boe) and methane leakage rates (as a percent of natural gas production) across the US’s different basins.
Covered basins include the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Marcellus/Utica, Alaska, GoM, Powder River, San Juan, Anadarko basin and DJ basin (chart above).
It is possible to rank the best companies in each basin, using the granular data, to identify industry leaders and laggards (chart below).
Heliogen has set a new record for concentrated solar power in November 2019, generating >1,000C temperatures from an array of c370 hexagonal mirrors, which are precisely controlled using computer vision. This is almost 2x traditional CSP plants which achieve c560C temperatures.
We have reviewed 21 patents from Heliogen’s predecessor company, eSolar, in order to understand its IP. Not only can it control heliostats more precisely than prior companies, but this allows the heliostats to be down-sized, conferring material cost-savings.
This data-file summarizes the technology, the patents, the costs (in c/kWh and $/mcfe) and the opportunity to decarbonise industrial heat and power generation.