The Top Public Companies for an Energy Transition

This data-file compiles all of our insights into publicly listed companies and their edge in the energy transition: commercialising economic technologies that advance the world towards ‘net zero’ CO2 by 2050.

Each insight is a differentiated conclusion, derived from a specific piece of research, data-analysis or modelling on the TSE web portal; summarized alongside links to our work. Next, the data-file ranks each insight according to its economic implications, technical readiness, its ability to accelerate the energy transition and the edge it confers on the company in question.

Each company can then be assessed by adding up the number of differentiated insights that feature in our work, and the average ‘score’ of each insight. The file is intended as a summary of our differentiated views on each company.

The screen is updated monthly. At the latest update, in June-2022, it contains 260 differentiated views on 140 public companies.

The Top 50 Private Companies for an Energy Transition

This data-file presents the ‘top 50’ private companies out of several hundred that have crossed our screens since the inception of Thunder Said Energy, looking back across all of our research.

For each company, we have used apples-to-apples criteria to score economics, technical readiness, technical edge, decarbonization credentials and our own depth of analysis.

The data-file also contains a short, two-line description follows for each company, plus links to our wider research, which will outline each opportunity in detail.

STATCOMs and SVCs: leading companies?

This data file looks for leading companies in STATCOMs and SVCs by aggregating all Western patents that refer in their title, abstract or claims to “STATCOMs”, “Static VAR Compensators”, or similar.

We have aimed to evaluate the leading companies in these evolving FACTS opportunities, stabilizing the voltage and reactive power of renewables, especially wind projects.

Overall, the space is concentrated, with only a handful of companies have a diversified product offering here. Two pure-play Capital goods companies stand out as the leaders. A third Western company is close behind, growing via acquisitions.

Strong competition is also seen from Japanese, Korean and increasingly Chinese manufacturers. We also identified half-a-dozen relatively concentrated pure-play companies, some listed, some private.

HVDC transmission: leading companies?

Leading companies in HVDC

Leading companies in HVDC. The global HVDC market is around $10bn per annum in 2021, growing at 7-11% per annum, with the goal of inter-connecting large renewables projects and stabilizing larger grids for the energy transition.

Numbers vary by project, but it might typically cost c€100-600 M to connect a large and remote renewables project to the grid or run a typical HVDC inter-connection line, including underground HVDC cabling that weighs 35kg/meter, plus associated, switchgear, power electronics, ancillary equipment and EPCI.

This data-file reviews the market leaders in HVDC, based on 5,500 patents filed over the past decade. A dozen companies stand out, with c$40bn of combined revenues from power transmission projects, equipment and materials.

In other words, the space is relatively concentrated across this small group of companies, although the companies are themselves relatively un-concentrated, with just c30% of the average one’s revenues coming from power transmission.

There are clear leaders in overall HVDC, in power cables and in input chemicals, in our view.

Recent Commentary: To read more about leading companies in HVDC, please see our article here. Our outlook on HVDC transmission is constructive, with costs and energy  penalties that are materially lower than batteries or hydrogen (note here).

Graphite producers: leading companies?

This data-file screens 15 companies that are developing graphite mines and downstream refining facilities, to upgrade their output into highly pure spheronized graphite that can be used as an anode material for lithium ion batteries and electric vehicles.

In each case, we have summarized the company’s listing, founding, size, concentration towards graphite, patents, project parameters and other key details.

There is a large landscape of junior mining companies here. However in our view, leaders will be those with the ability to integrate and demonstrate strong environmental performance, which will also correlate very closely with economic performance in this sub-industry.

Nickel producers: a screen of miners and refiners?

This data-file captures the 2.4MTpa nickel market, broken down facility by facility, producer-by-producer.

25 companies dominate the world’s nickel production, although the supply chain is heavily split between battery-grade materials, nickel sulphates, Class I metals, and lower-grade products such as matte, ferro-nickels, intermediates and NPI.

Each company is summarized, according to its size, supply chain position, cash flow, concentration in nickel, and underlying asset exposure.

CO2 intensity varies by a very wide 10x margin, from sub-10 tons/ton nickel to 100 tons/ton.

Coal miners: a screen of Western companies?

In normal times, thermal coal producers have debatable ESG credentials, owing to being the highest carbon fossil fuel, and 2-3x higher CO2 intensity per MWH of useful energy than natural gas.

However, in 2022-25, we could be in a market where deployment of important energy transition technologies is being held back by energy shortages, which pull on the demand for thermal coal; and also metals shortages, which in turn pull on the demand for metallurgical coal. We might not go so far as to call coal an ESG investment.

Nevertheless, this data-file aims to screen 15 Western coal producers. This group produces around 500MTpa of thermal coal and 100MTpa of metallurgical coal from the US, Canada, Europe and Australia. Most companies have been cutting capacity and phasing back activity. In turn, this creates potential to ramp back c100MTpa of production amidst very deep energy shortages, equivalent to c400TWH of useful energy.

The screen highlights each company, its size, concentrated to coal, its asset base and other details around its longer-term strategy.

Power-MOSFETs for EV charging: a screen?

This data-file screens companies that make power-MOSFETs, especially for EV charging and new energies applications. These are the transistors used to convert AC inputs into safe, fault-free and high-power DC charging outputs.

The screen covers six of the leading public companies, each with 5-25% market share, making the industry relatively concentrated. We also profile the leading public producer of silicon carbide input materials.

In each case, we outline the company’s size, geography, focus, patents, market share and key notes on EV fast-charging MOSFETs.

Wind turbines: screen of resin and polymer specialists?

This data-file tabulates details for 20 companies that make epoxy- or polyurethane resins and adhesives, especially those that feed into the construction of wind turbines.

We think there are 5 public companies ex-China with 5-35% proportionate exposure to this sub-segment of the wind industry, which could therefore be exposed to an acceleration of wind capacity-building. 3 companies stood out in particular and our highlighted in the data-file.

For each example, we have tabulated their approximate size, geography, patent filings, employee-county and estimated their exposure to wind turbine polymers.

Glass fiber: screen of leading companies?

This data-file aims to provide an overview of the world’s largest glass fiber manufacturers, quantifying company size, production volumes (in kTpa), proportionate exposure to the theme (% of revenues), plant locations, employee counts and patent filings. Summary notes are also provided for each company.

The industry is opaque, so our analysis has simply aimed to triangulate between publicly available data-sources and make informed estimates.

Three of the largest five companies in the industry are now based in China, but increasingly expanding internationally.

Copyright: Thunder Said Energy, 2022.