Hydrocarbon Energy Research - Thunder Said Energy

Development capex: long-term spending from Oil Majors?

This data-file tabulates the five 'Big Oil' Super-Majors' development capex from the mid-1990s, in headline terms (billions of dollars) and in per-barrel terms ($/boe of production). Real development spending quadrupled from $6/boe in 1995-2000 to $24/boe in 2010-15, and has since collapsed to $10/boe. So one cannot help wondering about another cycle?
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Air quality: sulphur, NOx and particulate emissions?

The flue gas of a typical combustion facility contains c7% CO2, 60ppm of NOx, 40ppm of SOx and 2ppm of particulate dusts. This is our conclusion from tabulating data across 75 large combustion facilities, mainly power generation facilities in Europe. However, the range is broad. As a rule of thumb, gas is cleanest, biomass and coal are worse, while some diesel-fired units are associated with the lowest air quality in our sample.
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Gas turbines: operating parameters?

A typical simple-cycle gas turbine is sized at 200MW, and achieves 38% efficiency, as super-heated gases at 1,250ºC temperature and 100-bar pressure expand and drive a turbine. Efficiency rises to 58% in a combined cycle. The purpose of this data-file is to tabulate typical operating parameters of gas turbines.
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NET Power: gas-fired power with inherent CO2 capture?

Our NET Power technology review shows over ten years of progress, refining the design of efficient power generation cycles using CO2 as the working fluid. The patents show a moat around several aspects of the technology. And six challenges at varying stages of de-risking.
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Methane slip: how much gas evades combustion?

Methane slip occurs when a small portion of natural gas fails to combust, and instead escapes into the atmosphere. This data-file reviews different technical papers. Methane slip is effectively nil at gas turbines and gas heating (less than 0.1%). It rises to 0.5-3% in cookstoves and some dual-fuel marine engines. However, the highest rate of methane slip occurs in flaring.
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Decarbonized gas: ship LNG out, take CO2 back?

This note explores an option to decarbonize global LNG: (i) capture the CO2 from combusting natural gas (ii) liquefy it, including heat exchange with the LNG regas stream, then (iii) then send the liquid CO2 back for disposal in the return journey of the LNG tanker. There are some logistical headaches, but no technical show-stoppers. Abatement cost is c$100/ton.
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Exploration capex: long-term spending from Oil Majors?

This data-file tabulates the Oil Majors' exploration capex from the mid-1990s, in billions of dollars ($bn pa) and in per-barrel terms (in $/boe). Exploration spending quadrupled from $1/boe in 1995-2005 to $4/boe in 2005-19, and has since collapsed like a warm Easter Egg. One cannot help wondering about another cycle?
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Global gas: is there enough gas for energy transition?

Our roadmap to 'Net Zero' requires doubling global gas production from 400bcfd to 800bcfd, as a complement to wind, solar, nuclear and other low-carbon energy. Reserve replacement must exceed 100% and the global RP ratio halves to 25-years. What do you have to believe?
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CH4 context: the largest methane leaks of all time?

Global methane emissions run to 360MTpa. 40% is agriculture, 40% is the energy industry and 20% is landfills. Within energy, over 30% of the leaks are from coal, 30% are from oil, 27% are from gas. This short note quantifies some of the largest methane leaks of all time, and provides context for the recent Nord Stream disaster.
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Global gas: five predictions through 2030?

Modelling Europe’s gas balances currently feels like grasping at straws. Yet this 10-page note makes five predictions through 2030. We have revised our views on how fast new energies ramp, which gas gets displaced first, which energy sources are no longer ‘in the firing line’, and gas pricing.
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Scope 4 emissions: avoided CO2 has value?

Scope 4 CO2 reflects the CO2 avoided by an activity. This 11-page note argues the metric warrants more attention. It yields an ‘all of the above’ approach to energy transition, shows where each investment dollar achieves most decarbonization and maximizes the impact of renewables.
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Scope 4 emissions of different energy sources

CO2 intensity: Scope 1, 2 & 3 and Scope 4 emissions?

Scope 4 CO2 emissions capture the CO2 that is avoided by use of a product. Many energy investments with positive Scope 1-3 emissions have deeply negative Scope 1-4 emissions. Numbers are quantified and may offer a more constructive approach to decarbonization investments.
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Displacing industrial gas demand in Europe

Gas diffusion: how will record prices resolve?

Dispersion in global gas prices has hit new highs in 2022. Hence this 17-page note evaluates two possible solutions. Building more LNG plants achieves 15-20% IRRs. But shuttering some of Europe’s gas-consuming industry then re-locating it in gas-rich countries can achieve 20-40% IRRs, lower net CO2 and lower risk? Both solutions should step up. What implications?
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Global gas prices: by country?

This data-file tabulates annual gas price data across twenty countries. In 2016-19, the global average price was $4/mcf, within an inter-quartile range of $2-6/mcf. Upside volatility has exploded since 2021. Yet half-a-dozen countries retain gas prices well below $2.5/mcf.
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UK HPHT gas fields: marginal cost?

Marginal costs of a HPHT project in the UK North Sea are captured via modeling Shell's 40kboed Jackdaw project, FID'ed in 2022. A $7/mcf marginal cost results mostly from high hurdle rates associated with project complexity. CO2 intensity has been lowered to c14kg/boe, we think.
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North Field: sharing the weight of the world?

The North Field is now the most important conventional energy asset on the planet. It produces 4% of world energy, 20% of global LNG and aims to ramp another 50MTpa of low-carbon LNG by 2028. But what if Qatar’s exceptional reliability gets disrupted by unforeseen conflict with Iran?
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Qatar’s North Field: production and productivity?

We have aggregated production data from the largest gas fied in the world: Qatar's North Field, aka Iran's South Pars field, with 1,260 TCF reserves. Output is running at 43bcfd in 2022, more than doubling in the past decade, which is possibly impacting future well productivity.
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World’s largest energy assets: by category and risk?

The largest hydrocarbon mega-projects are still 10-25x larger than the world's largest solar and offshore wind projects. Risks are different in each category. But on a risked basis, global energy supplies may come in c2% lower than base case forecasts
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Air conditioning: energy demand sensitivity?

This data-file quantifies air conditioning energy demand. In the US each 100 variation in CDDs adds 26 TWH of electricity (0.6%) demand and 200bcf of gas (0.6%). Air conditioning already consumes 7% of all global electricity and could treble by 2050.
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European shale: an overview?

Europe has 15 TCM of technically recoverable shale gas resources. This data-file aims to provide a helpful overview, as we expect exploration to re-accelerate. Ukraine has the best shale in Europe, which may even be a motivation for Russian aggression. Other countries with good potential, held back only by sentiment are Romania, Germany, UK, Bulgaria and Spain.
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Marcellus shale: well by well production database?

This large data-file tracks activity, well-by-well, across c11,000 wells in the Pennsylvania Marcellus, month-by-month, from 2015-2021. First tier operators stand out, especially as the basin has consolidated. They achieve higher IP rates and have been able to do more with less.
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Energy intensity by country: how does it change as income increases?

This data-file assesses 25 countries' and regions' energy consumption, as those countries developed over the past 50-years. Early industrialization is most energy intensive, rising 1:1 with GDP growth. In developed countries, energy use plateaus at c25MWH pp pa and decarbonization priorities step up sharply.
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Natural gas: the EU green taxonomy’s 270g/kWh CO2 target?

The EU taxonomy is a set of guidelines that label some investments as 'green'. This includes gas power with a CO2 intensity below 270g/kWh. Most conventional gas projects will not meet this hurdle, but CHPs and 20-30% blends of lower-carbon gas could accelerate.
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Global LNG supply model: by project and by country?

Our LNG model estimates production volumes from each of 130 LNG facilities, including 'risking' estimates for pre-FID projects. But near-term, we see devastating LNG shortages deepening in 2023-24. This time period could also see more pragmatism and up to 15 new FIDs per year.
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European Natural Gas Demand Model

European gas demand would rise at its fastest pace in a quarter-century in the 2020s, if not for persistent under-supplies and high prices. Our model reflects a dozen input variables in the energy transition: e.g., renewables, electric vehicles, phasing out of coal, nuclear, and hydrogen.
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Global energy market model for the energy transition?

This model breaks down 2050 and 2100's global energy market, based on a dozen input assumptions. You can 'flex' these, to see how it will affect future oil, coal and gas demand, as well as global CO2 emissions. We reach 'net zero' by 2050. Even as fossil fuel demand rises 18%, gas demand trebles and renewables also reach c16%.
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Power plants: cold starts and ramp rates?

This data-file aggregates the ramp-up rates of power generation sources, as they start up from "cold", and then as they ramp up (in MW per minute). Hydro and simple cycle gas turbines are fastest, followed by CCGTS, coal and nuclear.
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Aspen Aerogels: insulation breakthrough?

Aerogels have thermal conductivities that are 50-80% below conventional insulators. Target markets include preventing thermal runaway in electric vehicle batteries and cryogenic industrial processes (e.g., LNG). This data-file notes some challenges, using our usual patent review framework.
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Insulation: deliver us from gas shortages?

Insulating materials slow the flow of heat from a warm house by 30-100x. But 60-90% of today’s housing stock is 30-70% under-insulated. We think renovation rates could treble as gas shortages re-prioritize energy savings. This 12-page note screens who might benefit.
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building blocks for a zero-carbon energy

Integrated energy: a new model?

This 14-page note lays out a new model to supply fully carbon-neutral energy to a cluster of commercial and industrial consumers, via an integrated package of renewables, low-carbon gas back-ups and nature based carbon removals. This is remarkable for three reasons: low cost, high stability, and full technical readiness.
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Integrated gas and renewable power?

Ths data-file captures how to supply 100MWe and 1,000GWH pa of energy to a mid-sized consumer: reliably, at a low-cost and with zero net CO2 emissions. We think this is possible at a delivered power price below 10c/kWh, which is highly competitive.
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Heat pumps: hot and cold?

Some policymakers now aspire to ban gas boilers and ramp heat pumps 10x by 2050. In theory, the heat pump technology is superior. But in practice, there are ten challenges. It could become a political disaster. The most likely outcome is a 0-2% pullback in European gas by 2030.
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Heat pumps: a screen of providers and reviews?

This data-file tabulates our subjective opinions on c20 different heat pump companies, based on their consumer reviews, pricing, reliability, efficiency, company size, models, integration, and visual/acoustic properties. We conclude heat pumps are opaque and must be selected carefully.
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Gas turbines: what market size in energy transition?

CHP systems are 20-30% lower-carbon than gas turbines, as they capture waste heat. They are also increasingly economical to backstop renewables. Amidst uncertain policies, the market size for US CHPs could vary by a factor of 100x. We nevertheless find 30 companies well-placed in a $9trn global market.
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Turquoise hydrogen from methane pyrolysis: economics?

Turquoise hydrogen is produced by thermal decomposition of methane at high temperatures, from 600-1,200◦C. Costs can beat green hydrogen. This data-file quantifies the economics (in $/kg), how to generate 10% IRRs, possible capex costs, and remaining challenges for commercialization.
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Combined heat and power turbines: market sizing?

The purpose of this data-file is to ballpark the ultimate potential market size for combined heat and power systems in the US (CHPs). Our build-up looks across five main categories: large power facilities, large industrial heating facilities, landfill gas, electric vehicle charging and smaller-scale commercial and multi-family usage.
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Landfill gas: rags to riches?

Methane emissions from landfills account for 2% of global CO2e. c70% of these emissions could easily be abated for c$5/ton, simply by capturing and flaring the methane. Going further, low cost uses of landfill gas in heat and power can also make good sense. But vast subsidies for landfill gas upgrading or RNG vehicles may not be cost-effective.
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Landfill gas: the economics?

We estimate that a typical landfill facility may be able to capture and abate 70% of its methane leaks for a CO2-equivalent cost of $5/ton. Other landfill gas pathways get more complex and expensive. Raw and unprocessed landfill gas can be economical to commercialize at a cost of $2-4/mcfe.
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US industrial furnaces: breakdown by size, by industry, by fuel?

There are 1,500 industrial furnaces in the US manufacturing sector, with average capacity of 60MWth, c90% powered by natural gas, and thus explaining over 3.5 bcfd of US gas demand (4-5% of total). This is an unbelievably complex landscape, but we have captured as much facility-by-facility data as possible.
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Gas-to-liquids: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of gas-to-liquids via Fischer-Tropsch. Our base case requires $100/bbl realizations for a 10% IRR on a US project. You can stress-test the economics as a function of gas prices, capex costs, thermal efficiencies, et al, in the data-file.
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Gas treatment: an overview?

This data-file gives an overview of gas sweetening and treatment processes. The main method is chemical absorption using amines. We estimate that a mid-size facility of 500mmcfd must levy a $0.15/mcf cost and emits 3.5kg/boe to take out c7% H2S and CO2. Other processes are compared.
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Outlook for LNG in the energy transition

LNG in the energy transition: rewriting history?

A vast new up-cycle for LNG is in the offing, to meet energy transition goals, by displacing coal. 2024-25 LNG markets could by 100MTpa under-supplied, taking prices above $9/mcf. But emerging technologies are re-shaping the industry, so well-run greenfields may resist the cost over-runs that marred the last cycle.
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Technical challenges for LNG liquefaction

LNG liquefaction: what challenges and opportunities?

This data-file reviews 40 recent LNG patents, to draw conclusions and identify leading companies. Lowering capex costs matters, but should not be done at the expense of higher opex or emissions. The next generation of modular plants offer a step-change improvement. And new process technologies are also coming through.
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Industrial heat: the myth of electrify everything?

“Electrify everything then decarbonize electricity”. This mantra is dangerously incorrect for industrial heating. It raises output costs by 10-110% without lowering CO2. Our 19-page note presents case studies in the steel, cement, glass, petrochemical and paper industries, which exceed 15% of global CO2.
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China: can the factory of the world decarbonize?

China now aspires to reach ‘net zero’ CO2 by 2060. But is this compatible with growing an industrial economy and attaining Western living standards? The best middle-ground sees China’s coal phased out and gas rising by a vast 10x to 300bcfd. The biggest challenges are geopolitics and sourcing enough LNG.
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Economics of US Marcellus shale gas production

US shale gas: the economics?

This data-file breaks down the economics of US shale gas, in order to calculate the NPVs, IRRs and gas price breakevens. There is a perception that the US has an infinite supply of gas at $2/mcf, but rising hurdle rates and regulatory risk may require higher prices.
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Methanol: the next hydrogen?

Methanol is becoming more exciting than hydrogen as a clean fuel to help decarbonize transport. Specifically, blue methanol and bio-methanol are 65-75% less CO2-intensive than oil products, while they already earn 10% IRRs at c$3/gallon prices. Unlike hydrogen, it is simple to transport and integrate methanol with pre-existing vehicles.
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Methanol production: the economics?

This model captures the economics and CO2 intensity of methanol production in different chemical pathways. We find exciting potential for bio-methanol and blue methanol. These are logistically simple substitutes for oil products, but with lower carbon content. Full cost breakdowns can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Energy economics: energy content of combustion fuels?

The purpose of this data-file is to disaggregate the energy economics of combusting different fuels, including natural gas, different oil products, NGLs, coal, hydrogen, methanol, ammonia et al. The most effective way to blend more hydrogen into the energy mix is coal-to-gas switching, followed by using lighter oil products.
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Hydrogen blending: costs and complexities?

This data-file estimate the costs of blending hydrogen into pre-existing natural gas pipeline networks. Costs are relatively low per mcf of gas, but very high per ton of CO2 abated. Costs also rise exponentially, as more hydrogen is blended into the mix.
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Solid oxide fuel cells technical challenges from patents

Solid oxide fuel cells: what challenges?

This data-file reviews fifty patents into solid oxide fuel cells, filed by leading companies in 2020. The key focus areas are improving the longevity and efficiency of SOFCs. But unfortunately, we find many of the proposed solutions are likely to increase end costs. Potential is interesting, but deflation may take longer.
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UK grid volatility as renewable gain share?

This data-file charts the evolution of the UK grid as wind power has ramped up to over 20% share of the mix, inflating the the volatility of grid power pricing. We find evidence for excess power, which needs to be absorbed. So far gas capacity remains resilient.
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Turbo-charge gas turbines: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of turbo-charging gas turbines, which increases the mass flow of combustion air, to improve their power ratings by c10-20%. IRRs are solid. Turbo-charged gas turbines could thus gain greater share as grids become saturated with renewables
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is there enough gas to decarbonize Europe?

Decarbonization in Europe: but is there enough gas?

A lack of gas is likely to slow down Europe’s energy transition in the 2020s. This is the conclusion in our new 12-page note, which captures basic EU policy objectives. An incremental 85MTpa of LNG must be sourced by 2030, absorbing one third of new global LNG supplies and stoking shortages.
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Weatherization of homes: what methods and costs?

The weatherization of 2M American homes is part of Joe Biden's proposed energy policy, in order to reduce heating costs and emissions. Hence, this data-file estimates the costs and payoffs of attic insulation, air sealing, window upgrades, window coverings and smart thermostats.
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costs for CO2 capture at gas power turbine

Exhaust gas recirculation in gas power: the economics?

This data-file explores an alternative design for a combined cycle gas turbine, re-circulating exhaust gases after combustion, in order to facilitate CO2 capture. Costs and operating parameters are summarized from recent technical papers. Even with EGR, it will be challenging to decarbonize a gas turbine for less than $100/ton.
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Deep blue: cracking the code of carbon capture?

Carbon capture is cursed by colossal costs at small scale. But blue hydrogen may be its saviour. Crucial economies of scale are guaranteed by deploying both technologies together. The combination is a dream scenario for gas producers. This 21-page note outlines the opportunity and costs.
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Blue hydrogen from methane reforming: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of blue hydrogen production via reforming natural gas: either steam-methane reforming or auto-thermal reforming. Costs and operating parameters are compiled from technical papers. Blue hydrogen can be cost-competitive with CCS, while overall costs are most sensitive to gas prices.
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A new case for gas: what if renewables get overbuilt?

Overbuilding renewables may make power grids more expensive and less reliable. Hence more businesses may choose to generate their own power behind the meter, installing combined heat and power systems fuelled by natural gas. IRRs reach 20-30%. Efficiency is 70-80%. Total CO2 falls by 6-30%. This 17-page note outlines the opportunity.
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IRR economics of combined heat and power $

Combined heat and power: the economics?

This data-file models the energy economics of a combined heat and power installation, to provide electricity and heating behind the meter, in lieu of purchasing electricity from the grid. Economics are strong, especially for larger units. CO2 emissions can also be reduced by 5-30% due to high efficiency.
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Great white whales: the end of oil and gas?

Whale oil was a dominant, albeit barbaric, lighting fuel in the 19th century. But what happened to pricing as the industry was disrupted by kerosene and ultimately by electric lighting? We find whale oil pricing maintained a 25x premium to rock oil and outperformed other commodities as the whale oil market collapsed. As whaling declined, … Continue reading "Great white whales: the end of oil and gas?"
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Fuel cells: decline rates?

This data-file captures the generation profiles of c100 fuel cell power plants, installed to-date in the US. Output has been rising at 0.15TWH per year since 2010. It may accelerate alongside hydrogen. We find efficiency is high, but degradation and resiliency must be carefully considered. Bloom Energy's fuel cells are also profiled in detail.
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Gas power: decline rates?

This data-file tabulates power generation profiles of 3,000 US natural gas power plants. They provide long-term resiliency and flexibility to a grid. Unlike wind and solar, they do not have a decline rate, while annual generation routines flexes between 15% to 75% of peak levels, to smooth the grid. California's blackouts present a cautionary tale.
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Decarbonization of the United States with a CO2 price?

We have modelled how a CO2 price could decarbonize the United States, using a granular model of US emissions, looking commodity-by-commodity and sector-by-sector. A real $40/ton CO2 price, starting in 2021, escalating by 5% pa above inflation, could fully decarbonize the country by 2050.
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Leading companies commercializing gas turbines for power or CHP

Gas turbines and CHP: technology leaders?

This data-file profiles 30 leading companies in gas turbines and CHPs, from mega-caps such as GE, Siemens and Mitsubishi, down to small-caps and private companies with exciting new technologies. Case studies are also presented, with details on turbine installations.
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Gas Pipelines: how much energy, CO2 and methane leaks?

This file aggregates data for 40 major US gas pipelines which transport 45TCF of gas each year over 185,000 miles; and for 3,200 compressors at 640 related compressor stations. Hence, we can calculate the CO2 intensity (in kg/mcf-mile) and methane leak rates (in %) for different midstream companies and the overall US gas industry.
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Alternative truck fuels: how economic?

We have modelled the relative economics of different truck fuels. The incumbent, diesel, is compared with alternatives, such as hydrogen, LNG, Compressed Natural Gas and LPG, across 35 different metrics. Carbon-offset diesel is still the most economical trucking fuel.
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Gas, CO2 and hydrogen pipelines: the energy economics?

This model captures the energy economics of a pipeline carrying natural gas, CO2 or hydrogen. It computes the required throughput tariff (in $/mcf or $/kg) to earn a 10% IRR. Hydrogen tariffs must be 2x new gas pipelines and 10x pre-existing gas pipelines. CO2 disposal is more economic at scale.
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The Top Technologies in Energy

This data-file "scores" the top technologies to transform the global energy industry and the world, as assessed by Thunder Said Energy. Each one is scored based on technical readiness, economic impact and the level of work we have conducted.
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Strategy for oil companies in the energy transition?

Net zero Oil Majors: four cardinal virtues?

Attaining ‘Net Zero’ can uplift an Energy Major’s valuation by c50%. This means emitting no net CO2, either from the company’s operations or from the use of its products. This 19-page report shows how a Major can best achieve ‘net zero’ by exhibiting four cardinal virtues. Decarbonization is not a threat but an opportunity.
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Flare gas capture: the economics?

c150bcm of gas was flared globally in 2019. This data-file simplifies the economics of capturing flare gas. Generally, double-digit IRRs are achievable at large new shale pads. But costs are more challenging at smaller sites, remote pads or for contaminated gas. Carbon prices would dramatically improve economics. A $100/ton CO2 price could potentially eliminate US flaring.
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Coal-to-gas switching: what CO2 abatement cost?

Coal-to-gas switching halves the CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy. This data-file estimates the CO2 abatement costs. Gas is often more expensive than coal. But as a rule of thumb, a $30-60/ton CO2 price makes $6-8/mcf gas competitive with $60-80/ton coal. CO2 abatement costs are materially lower in the US and after reflecting efficiency. Commodity price volatility in 2022 does not change long-term abatement costs.
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Leading Companies in Pipeline Gas Technology?

This data-file tracks 800 patents innovating pipeline transportation of natural gas, to screen for exciting technologies and companies. 6 publicly listed firms and 6 venture-stage start-ups stood out from the analysis, commercialising next-generation materials, monitoring methods and optimizing gas distribution.
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Decarbonize Heat?

Natural gas fuels two-thirds of residential and commercial heating, which in turn comprises c10% of global CO2. We assessed ten technologies to decarbonize heat, including heat pumps, renewables, biogas and hydrogen. The lowest cost solution is to double down on natural gas with nature-based carbon offsets. Global gas demand for heating should continue rising.
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District heating: the economics?

District heating can lower CO2 intensity, by piping waste heat from power generation or industry to consumers. Costs can vary by a factor of 10x. But our base case estimates a 10% IRR at 10c/kWh retail heating price. Please download the model to flex gas prices, household consumption rates or costs.
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Biogas: the economics?

Biogas screens as a relatively expensive source of energy. Our project model requires $20/mcfe gas, a $50/ton CO2 price and a $50/ton tipping fee, in order to make a 10% unlevered return on a $430/Tpa plant. The economics are most sensitive to tipping fees. CO2 abatement costs via biogas are very high.
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Nature based solutions to climate change

The route to net zero: an energy-climate model for 2-degrees

We have modeled the global climate system from 1750-2065, to simplify the science of energy transition. 'Net zero' is achievable by 2050. Atmospheric CO2 remains below 450ppm, consistent with 2-degrees warming. Fossil fuel usage is 10% higher than today, but the fossil fuel industry is transformed.
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Financial and CO2 Costs of Heaters, Boilers and Heat Pumps

Residential heating will likely cost 5-30c/kWh, with a CO2 intensity of 0.1-0.4 kg/kWh. Gas fired boilers are lowest cost, even after paying $50/ton for carbon offsets. Electric heat pumps are most efficient. Oil furnaces and electric heaters are higher-cost and higher-carbon. The numbers can be stress-tested in this data-file.
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Direct air capture of CO2: the economics?

We model Direct Air Capture of CO2 is likely to cost $150-300/ton, based on granular data on its capex, opex and energy-intensity. This data-file outlines the process, our key conclusions, and allows you to stress-test your own input assumptions.
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How to structure a decarbonized gas value chain?

Gas value chains are the largest and lowest cost decarbonization opportunity on the planet, commercialising zero carbon energy for an incremental cost below $1/mcfe ($17/ton of CO2). This compares with end gas prices of $4-14/mcf and other CO2 mitigation options up to $800/ton. This 15-page note outlines how to structure a decarbonized gas value chain, … Continue reading "How to structure a decarbonized gas value chain?"
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CO2 Funds to Decarbonize Natural Gas with Forests

Carbon Funds to Decarbonize Natural Gas

Natural gas can be decarbonized for a $1/mcf premium, which is used to seed new forests. Attractive cash flows and economics are modelled here. c50% of the carbon premia are dedicated to a carbon fund. It guarantees future CO2 obligations, optimizes emissions reductions, and finally disburses remaining funds.
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Methane emissions from pneumatic devices, by operator, by basin

Methane leaks from 1M pneumatic devices across the US onshore oil and gas industry comprise 50% of all US upstream methane leaks and 20% of upstream CO2. This file aggregates the data. Rankings reveal operators with a pressing priority to replace >100,000 medium and high bleed devices, and other best-in-class companies.
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The future of offshore: fully subsea?

Offshore developments will change dramatically in the 2020s, eliminating new production platforms in favour of fully subsea solutions. The opportunity can increase a typical project’s NPV by 50%, reduce its breakeven by one-third and effectively eliminate upstream CO2 emissions. We have reviewed 1,850 patents to find the best-placed operators and service providers, versus others that … Continue reading "The future of offshore: fully subsea?"
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Floating production systems versus subsea tiebacks: the costs?

This model estimates the line-by-line costs of an FPSO project, across c45 distinct cost lines (in $M and $/boe). We estimate c$750M of cost savings for a tieback, and c$500M of cost savings for a fully subsea development, as compared against a traditional project with a traditional production facility.
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Fully subsea offshore projects: the economics?

The model presents the economic impacts of developing a typical, 625Mboe offshore gas condensate field using a fully subsea solution, compared against installing a new production facility. The result is a c4% uplift in IRRs, a 50% uplift in NPV6 and a 33% reduction in the project's gas-breakeven price. The economics are attractive.
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Oxy-combustion: economics of zero-carbon gas?

Oxy-combustion is a next-generation power technology, burning fossil fuels in an inert atmosphere of CO2 and oxygen. It is easy to sequester CO2 from its exhaust gases, helping heat and power to decarbonise. We argue that IRRs can be competitive with conventional gas-fired power plants.
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Decarbonized power: how much wind and solar fit into the optimal grid?

What should future power grids look like? Our answer optimizes costs, stability and CO2. Renewables do not surpass 45-50%. By this point, over 70% of new wind and solar will fail to dispatch, while incentive prices will have trebled. Batteries help little. They raise power prices by a further 2-5x to accommodate just 3-15% more … Continue reading "Decarbonized power: how much wind and solar fit into the optimal grid?"
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Components leaking methane in oil and gas

Fugitive methane: what components are leaking?

This data-file looks through 35 technical papers to tabulate methane leaks from different components around the oil and gas industry. The largest are losses of well control (up to 1MTpa), then mid-downstream facilities (up to 10kTpa), compressors (up to 100T), pneumatic devices, wellheads and liquid unloading (up to 10T).
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Scaling Up Renewables and Batteries

Renewables would cap out at 40-50% of inflexible electricity grids, based on Monte Carlo analysis of wind, solar and batteries. Beyond 50%, new renewables' curtailment rates surpass 70%, trebling their marginal cost. Batteries also increase incentive prices by 5-25x. Natural gas and demand-shifting are the best backstops.
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Electric Vehicles Increase Fossil Fuel Demand?

It is widely believed that electric vehicles will destroy fossil fuel demand. We find they will increase it by 0.7Mboed from 2020-35. EVs only start lowering net fossil fuel demand from 2037 onwards. The reason is that 3.7x more energy is consumed to manufacture each EV than the net road fuel it displaces each year; … Continue reading "Electric Vehicles Increase Fossil Fuel Demand?"
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Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells: capture carbon, generate electricity?

Molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFCs) could be a game-changer for CCS, and fossil fuels. They are electrochemical reactors with the unique capability to capture CO2 from the exhaust pipes of combustion facilities; while at the same time, efficiently generating electricity and heat from natural gas. The first pilot plant was due to be tested in … Continue reading "Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells: capture carbon, generate electricity?"
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Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells: CCS plus Power? The Economics?

Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells could be extremely promising, generating electrical power from natural gas as an input, while also capturing CO2 from industrial flue gases through an electrochemical process. We model competitive economics. Our model runs of 18 input variables, which you can stress-test.
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Fuel Cell Power Project Economics

This data-file models the economics of constructing a new fuel-cell power project: generating electricity from grey, blue or green hydrogen. The model is based on technical papers and past projects around the industry. Economics look challenging. Our base case estimate is a 24c/kWh incentive price.
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Fuel Cell Patents: twenty years of progress?

This data-file tabulates the numbers of patents filed into different types of fuel-cells, from 2000-2020, globally and in key geographies: China, Japan, Korea and the US. Research activity peaked in 2008 and has since fallen by 30%. Japanese research has collapsed, while China's has ascended.
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Gas-to-Power Project Economics

This data-file models the economics of constructing a new gas-to-power project, based on technical papers and past projects around the industry. A dozen input variables can be flexed, to stress test economic sensitivity. A strong role for gas is suggested in baseload generation, with costs effectively doubling, if turbines are marginalized merely to backing up renewables.
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Global CCS Projects Database

This data-file captures 65 carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities. 30 are currently running, with capacity to sequester 40MTpa of CO2; which should rise 2.5x by 2030. As costs deflate, CCS is expanding to more countries, more industries and away towards dedicated geological storage.
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Global gas: catch methane if you can?

Scaling up natural gas is the largest decarbonisation opportunity on the planet. But this requires minimising methane leaks. Exciting new technologies are emerging. This note ranks producers, positions for new policies and advocates developing more LNG. To seize the opportunity, we also identify early-stage companies in methane measurement and mature public companies in the oilfield supply chain
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Methane Leaks from US Dowsntream Gas Distribution

Methane Leaks from Downstream Gas Distribution

Methane leakages average 0.2% when distributing natural gas to end-customers, across the US's 160 retail gas networks. Leakages are most correlated with the share of sales to smaller customers. 80 distinct gas companies are ranked in this data-file. State-owned utilities appear to have 2x higher leakage rates versus public companies.
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Screen of companies detecting methane leaks?

This data-file screens the methods available to monitor for methane emissions. Notes and metrics are tabulated. Emerging methods, such as drones and trucks are also scored, based on technical trials. The best drones can now detect almost all methane leaks >90% faster than traditional methods. c34 companies at the cutting edge are screened.
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Impact of Methane on Natural Gas Emissions

Methane emissions detract from natural gas?

With methane emissions fully controlled, burning gas is c60% lower-CO2 than burning coal. However, taking natural gas to cause 120x more warming than CO2 over a short timeframe, the crossover (where coal emissions and gas emissions are equivalent) is 4% methane intensity. The gas industry must work to mitigate methane.
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Gas Gathering: how much CO2 and Methane?

Gas gathering and gas processing are 50% less CO2 intensive than oil refining. Nevertheless, these processes emitted 18kg of CO2e per boe in 2018. Methane matters most, explaining 7kg/boe of gas industry CO2-equivalents. This data-file assesses 850 US gas gathering and processing facilities, to screen for leaders and laggards, by geography and by operator.
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Carbon Credentials drive Capital Costs?

Lower carbon oil and gas may be increasingly valued by investors, earning higher multiples and lower costs of capital, according to our recent survey. 80-90% find it harder to invest in oil and gas today but view lower carbon barrels as an investable part of the solution. Capital costs are quantified for higher- and lower-carbon barrels.
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Shipping in batteries: the economics?

What if it were possible to displace diesel from high-cost, high-carbon island grids, by charging up large batteries with gas- and renewable power, then shipping the batteries? We model the economics to be cost-competitive, while CO2 emissions can be halved. Futher battery cost deflation will also help.
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Global Flaring Intensity by Country

This data-file tabulates global flaring intensity in 16 countries: in absolute terms (bcm per year), per barrel of oil production (mcf/bbl) and as a contribution to CO2 emissions (kg/boe). 2021 saw 144bcm of global flaring, averaging 0.2 mcf/bbl and 10 kg/boe of direct emissions. Lower decile countries flared 0.7 mcf/bbl, which is over 40 kg/boe.
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Breakdown of global CO2 emissions

This data-file breaks down global CO2 emissions into 40 distinct categories. The largest single components are deforestation and passenger vehicles, at 12% each. Another 30 line items each contribute >1% of global CO2, illustrating the complexity of decarbonisation.
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The Ascent of Small Scale LNG?

Large LNG projects make large headlines. But we are excited by the ascent of small-scale LNG facilities. At less than 1MTpa each, these facilities can be harder to track, which is the objective of this data-file. We find small LNG liquefaction capacity is set to double, to 25MTpa. Liquefaction facilities for shipping will rise 8x to 4MTpa by 2021. By 2022, Europe will have 5x more small-scale facilities than a decade prior.
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Investing for an Energy Transition

What is the best way for investors to drive decarbonisation? We argue a new ‘venturing’ model is needed, to incubate better technologies. CO2 budgets can also be stretched furthest by re-allocating to gas, lower-carbon oil and lower-carbon industry. But divestment is a grave mistake.
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Production profiles: renewables vs oil and gas?

Further deflation of c50-70% is required before the world can truly "re-allocate" capital from fossil fuels to renewables, without causing near-term shortages. This is because fossil fuels' production profiles are 2-3x more front-end loaded; despite comparable costs, breakevens and resource sizes. It is still necessary to attract adequate capital for both supply sources.
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CO2 intensity of natural gas value chains?

We have constructed a simple model to estimate full-cycle CO2 emissions of a gas resource, as a function of its production efficiency, contaminants (CO2 and H2S), and commercialisation (LNG or pipelines) . Compared with the life-cycle emissions of oil, CO2 per boe is seen to be c0-20% lower for LNG and c50-75% lower for piped gas. Leading resource types are shown in the data-file.
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Long-Term LNG Demand: technology-led?

This is a simple model of long-term LNG demand, extrapolating out sensible estimates for the world's leading LNG-consumers. On top of this, we overlay the upside from two nascent technology areas, which could add 200MTpa of potential upside to the market. Backup workings are included.
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Patent Leaders in Energy

Technology leadership is crucial in energy. But it is difficult to discern. Hence, we reviewed 3,000 patents across the 25 largest companies. This note ranks the industry’s “Top 10 technology-leaders”: in upstream, offshore, deep-water, shale, LNG, gas-marketing, downstream, chemicals, digital and renewables. In each case, we profile the leading company, its edge and the proximity … Continue reading "Patent Leaders in Energy"
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US Shale Gas to Liquids?

Shell filed 42 distinct new patents around GTL in 2018. This data-file reviews them, showing how the broad array of GTL products confers defensiveness and downstream portfolio benefits. Hence, we have modeled the economics of "replicating" Pearl GTL in Texas. Our base case is a 11% IRR taking in 1.6bcfd of stranded gas from the Permian.
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leading oil companies for decarbonising the energy system

Major technologies to decarbonise power?

Oil Majors will play a crucial role in decarbonising the energy system, while also securing the future of fossil fuels. Hence, to help identify the leading companies, this-data file summarises over 80 patents for de-carbonising power-generation, drawn from our database of over 3,000 patent-filings from the largest energy companies in 2018.
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De-carbonising carbon?

Decarbonisation is often taken to mean the end of fossil fuels. More feasible is to de-carbonise fossil fuels. This 15-page note explores two top opportunities for low-cost decarbonisation of coal and gas: 'Oxy-Combustion' and 'Chemical Looping Combustion'. Leading Oil Majors support these solutions.
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China’s Shale Challenge?

This data-file quantifies the most-discussed challenges for developing Chinese shale gas, after a review of the technical literature, as well as the solutions suggested to combat them, and our "top ten conclusions" on Chinese shale.
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Chemical Looping Progress?

Chemical Looping Combustion could clean up future coal or gas-fired power. But will it work? We have tabulated data from the technical literature on 40 chemical looping combustion pilots. They have run collectively for 10,000 hours. They promise 38% energy efficiencies for zero carbon emissions.
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Shale EOR: the economics

This model assesses shale-EOR economics, as a function of oil prices, gas prices, production-profiles and capex costs. 15-20% IRRs are attainable in our base case. Economics are getting increasingly exciting, as the technology is de-risked and more gas is stranded in key shale basins.
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The World’s Great Gas Fields and Their CO2

This data-file tabulates 30 major gas resources around the world, their volumes, their CO2 content and how the CO2 is handled. This matters because higher CO2 gas fields are more costly to develop into LNG, while CO2 venting is no longer acceptable without CCS. Permian & Marcellus LNG are best positioned.
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Small-Scale LNG liquefaction Costs: New Opportunities?

Small-scale LNG technologies can be economic at $10/mcf, generating 15% pre-tax IRRs, off $3/mcf input gas. This data-file tabulates the line-by-line costs of typical small-scale LNG technologies (SMRs, N2 expansion). Against this baseline, we model a more cutting-edge technology, which preserves strong economics at c25x smaller scale.
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LNG in transport: scaling up by scaling down?

Next-generation technology in small-scale LNG has potential to reshape the global shipping-fuels industry. Especially after IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, LNG should compete with diesel. This note outlines the technologies, economics and opportunities for LNG as a transport fuel.
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How do LNG costs vary with plant size?

This data-file tabulates a dozen data-points on LNG plant opex, from company disclosures, the technical literature and academic papers. Opex is a function of plant size, and tends to fall by $0.3/mcf for each 10x change in plant capacity.
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LNG as a Shipping Fuel: the Economics

This data-file provides line-by-line cost estimates for LNG as a shipping fuel, for trucked LNG, small-scale LNG and bunkered LNG. After IMO 2020 regulations buoy diesel pricing, it should be economical to fuel newbuild ships with small-scale LNG; and in the US it should be economical to convert pre-existing ships to LNG.
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Fast-charge the electric vehicles with gas?

There is upside for natural gas, as EV penetration rises: we model that gas turbines can economically power fast-chargers for 13c/kWh. Carbon emissions are lowered by c70% compared with oil. And the grid is spared from power demand surges. Download our data-file to stress-test the sensitivities.
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Costs of an LNG fuelling station

We have tabulated the costs of constructing an LNG-fuelling station across 55 cost lines, totalling €1M/site. c$10/mcf may be added to the cost of gas as a fuel.
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Maintenance costs for gas-powered trucks?

Maintenance costs are tabulated by category, for a fleet of compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks, travelling 16M miles across the United States.
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Global shipping and the switch from fuel oil?

The 240MTpa shipping-fuels market will be disrupted from 2020, under IMO sulphur regulations. Hence, this data-file breaks down the world’s 100,000-vessel shipping fleet into 13 distinct categories. We see 40-60MTpa upside to LNG demand from 2040.
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Should a shale rig switch to gas-fuel?

Should a shale rig switch to gas-fuel? We estimate that a dual-fuel shale rig, running on in-basin natural gas would save $2,300/day (or c$30k/well), compared to a typical diesel rig. This is after a >20% IRR on the rig’s upgrade costs. The economics make sense. However, converting the entire Permian rig count to run on … Continue reading "Should a shale rig switch to gas-fuel?"
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LNG Process Technologies — an Overview

This file will give a helpful overview of eight main process technologies, which are used in LNG liquefaction. For each one, we summarise how it works, advantages and disadvantages, plus involved-companies.
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Floating LNG: do the costs work?

A 2.5MTpa Floating LNG vessel using the Golar/PRICO process would cost c$700/tpa, or $1.1/mcfe. A $2.5/mcf liquefaction-spread is therefore needed for a 10% return. The key economic risk is 'uptime'. This file contains our workings; including cost-estimates across 17-categories, such as compressors, heat-exchangers, vessel-costs, et al.
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