Our models of the energy transition ease coal production back from 8GTpa in 2019 to 5GTpa by 2030, in the interests of decarbonization. However, this model explores what is required to meet this ambition.
Around 1GTpa of new coal projects are in planning or under construction, of which half are in China. Thus to hit our numbers, an additional 70bcfd of gas must be supplied to China by 2030, in order that it can actually turn off 1.5GTpa of coal capacity.
In the meantime, we are concerned about coal shortages, because one-third of all global coal production comes from underground mines, i.e., confined and hard-to-ventilate spaces containing 300-1,500 workers per MTpa of output, which may be disrupted by COVID.
Please download the data-file to stress-test our assumptions around mine adds, decline rates, phase-downs and coal-to-gas switching.