The Ascent of Shale

This model contains our live, basin-by-basin shale forecasts. It covers the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford, as a function of the rig count, drilling productivity, completion rates, well productivity and type curves. Thus, we derive production and financial expectations.

For 2020, we model the impacts of collapsing oil prices. We see shale declining by 3Mbpd from March 2020 to December 2021. It takes until mid-2023 to recover to the prior peak. In 2022, shale production will run almost 8Mbpd below its pre-COVID potential.

Our longer-term numbers hinge on the productivity gains described in our thematic research. Shale productivity trebled from 2012-2018. We think it can effectively double again by 2025, unlocking 15Mbpd of shale production.  However beforehand, productivity will disappoint as the industry ramps activity levels back post-COVID.