This model contains our live, basin-by-basin shale forecasts. It covers the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford, as a function of the rig count, drilling productivity, completion rates, well productivity and type curves. Thus, we derive production and financial expectations.
For 2021, we model the impacts of last year’s COVID crash. We see shale declining by 2Mbpd from March 2020 to December 2021. It takes until Jan-2023 to recover to the prior peak. In 2022, shale production will run almost 7Mbpd below its pre-COVID potential.
Our longer-term numbers hinge on the productivity gains described in our thematic research. Shale productivity trebled from 2012-2018. We think it can rise another 45% by 2025, unlocking 16Mbpd of liquid shale production. However beforehand, productivity will disappoint as the industry ramps activity levels back post-COVID.