This model contains our live, basin-by-basin shale forecasts. It covers the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford, as a function of the rig count, drilling productivity, completion rates, well productivity and type curves. Thus, we derive production and financial expectations.
For 2022, the key challenge is stepping up activity levels, as the rig count must rise +60% YoY to keep early-2020s oil markets sufficiently supplied. Conversely, in 2021, production surpassed our expectations due to an unprecedented rate of DUC drawdowns, while well productivity was also stronger-than-feared.
Our longer-term numbers hinge on the productivity gains described in our thematic research. Shale productivity trebled from 2012-2018. We think it can rise another 45% by 2025, unlocking 15Mbpd of liquid shale production. However productivity could disappoint mildly in 2022 as the industry ramps activity levels back post-COVID.