The Ascent of Shale

This model contains our live, basin-by-basin shale forecasts. We model each of the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford, as a function of the rig count, drilling productivity, completion rate, well productivity and type curves. Thus, we derive production and financial expectations.

Our numbers hinge on the productivity gains described in our thematic research. Shale productivity trebled from 2012-2018. We think it can effectively double again by 2025. This would unleash 21Mbpd of US liquids production by 2025, within cash flow at a flat $50/bbl Brent input.