The Top Public Companies for an Energy Transition

This data-file compiles all of our insights into publicly listed companies and their edge in the energy transition: commercialising economic technologies that advance the world towards ‘net zero’ CO2 by 2050.

Each insight is a differentiated conclusion, derived from a specific piece of research, data-analysis or modelling on the TSE web portal; summarized alongside links to our work. Next, the data-file ranks each insight according to its economic implications, technical readiness, its ability to accelerate the energy transition and the edge it confers on the company in question.

Each company can then be assessed by adding up the number of differentiated insights that feature in our work, and the average ‘score’ of each insight. The file is intended as a summary of our differentiated views on each company.

The screen is updated monthly. At the latest update, in April-2020, it contains 133 differentiated views on 70 public companies.

US shale: the quick and the dead?

It is no longer possible to compete in the US shale industry without leading digital technologies. This 10-page note outlines best practices, process by process, based on 500 patents and 650 technical papers. Chevron, Conoco and ExxonMobil lead our screens. We profile where they have an edge, to capture upside in the industry’s dislocation and recovery. Disconcertingly absent from the leader-board is EOG, whose long-revered technical edge may now have been eclipsed by others.

The Top Technologies in Energy

What are the top technologies to transform the global energy industry and the world? This data-file summarises where we have conducted differentiated analysis, across c80 technologies (and counting).

For each technology, we summarise the opportunity in two-lines. Then we score its economic impact, its technical maturity (TRL), and the depth of our work to-date. The output is a ranking of the top technologies, by category; and a “cost curve” for the total costs to decarbonise global energy.

Download this data-file and you will also receive updates for a year, as we add more technologies; and we will also be happy to dig into any technologies you would like to see added to the list.

Methane emissions from pneumatic devices, by operator, by basin

Methane leaks from 1M pneumatic devices across the US onshore oil and gas industry comprise 60% of all US upstream methane leaks and 23% of all upstream CO2. This data-file aggregates data on 563,000 pneumatic devices, from 300 acreage positions, of 200 onshore producers in 9 US basins.

The data are broken down acreage position by position, from high-bleed pneumatic devices, releasing an average of 4.2T of methane/device/year to pnuematic pumps and intermediate devices, releasing 1.5T, through to low-bleed pneumatic devices releasing 160kg/device/year.

It allows us to rank operators. 12 companies are identified, with a pressing priority to replace c135,000 medium and high bleed devices. 6 companies are identified with best-in-class use of pneumatics (chart below).

A summary of our conclusions is also written out in the second tab of the data-file.  For opportunities to resolve these leaks and replace pneumatic devices, please see our recent note on Mitigating Methane.

The Ascent of Shale

This model contains our live, basin-by-basin shale forecasts. It covers the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford, as a function of the rig count, drilling productivity, completion rates, well productivity and type curves. Thus, we derive production and financial expectations.

For 2020, we model the impacts of a price collapse to $30/bbl. We see shale declining by 2Mbpd from April 2020 to mid-2021. It takes until YE22 to recover to the prior peak. Record FCF may be generated in the recovery.

Our longer-term numbers hinge on the productivity gains described in our thematic research. Shale productivity trebled from 2012-2018. We think it can effectively double again by 2025. This would unleash c20Mbpd of US liquids production by 2025, within cash flow at a flat $50/bbl Brent input.

Fugitive methane: what components are leaking?

This data-file looks through 35 different technical papers and data-sources to tabulate the methane leaks from different components around the oil and gas industry.

The largest leaks per event are from losses of well control, which can emit 10-1M tons per annum. Next are mid- and downstrseam facilities at 1-10kTpa.

The largest leaks by upstream component are compressor seals (1-100Tpa) and millons of pneumatic devices (0.01-10Tpa), which each comprise c20-30% of total upstream leaks.

Potentially overlooked categories include wellheads, storage tanks and workover practices. All are quantified in the data-file. The theme is addressed in detail in our note, mitigating methane.

Hydraulic Fracturing: where’s the IP?

This data-file tracks 17,000 hydraulic fracturing patents filed by geography, by company, by year, since 2010; but particularly in 2019.

Frac patents peaked in 2017-18 at c3,900 per year. 2020 has slowed by 6%. But the headline figures mask a c36% correction in the US, masked by 33% expansion of Chinese shale ambitions. Remarkably, in 2019, the leading Chinese Major filed more hydraulic fracturing patents than the leading US Service provider.

Company trends. Over the past three years, among larger companies, the top US Services filed c45% of the patents, Chinese Majors filed c40%, DM producers filed c5% and niche service copanies files c10%.

A granular breakdown for 2019 tabulates 1,900 patents, including their descriptions, which you can interrogate fully.

Chevron: SuperMajor Shale in 2020?

SuperMajors’ shale developments are assumed to differ from E&Ps’ mainly in their scale and access to capital. Access to superior technologies is rarely discussed. But new evidence is emerging. This note assesses 40 of Chevron’s shale patents from 2019, showing a vast array of data-driven technologies, to optimize every aspect of shale.

EOG’s Digitization: Pumped-Up?

EOG patented a new digital technology in 2019: a load assembly which can be built into its rod pumps: to raise efficiency, lower costs and lower energy consumption (i.e., CO2). This short note reviews the patent, illustrating how EOG is working to further digitize its processes, maximise productivity and minimise CO2 intensity.

Blockchain in the Oil & Gas Supply Chain

This datafile tabulates ten examples of deploying Blockchain in the oil and gas industry from 2017 onwards; including the companies involved, the use cases, and our estimates of the cost savings.

Most prior examples have been in oil and gas trading, where cost savings tend to run at c35%. More niche applications are gaining traction in downstream, B2B applications.

For 2020, we are particularly excited by the broadening of Blockchain technologies into the procurement industry by a particular company, Data Gumbo.

c10% cost savings may be achieved for fragmented supply chains, such as US shale, by analogy to other digital procurement platforms we have evaluated in the past.