This European gas supply demand model assesses the balances in European gas markets from 1990 to 2030, reflecting all of our research and views on the energy transition. Supply-demand balances are broken down as a function of a dozen key input assumptions, which you can flex.
As of mid-2022, we think Europe’s 45bcfd gas market is at risk of suffering from a 3-10 bcfd gas shortage in 2022-25, depending on Russian supplies, which are quantified in the file.
Over time, gas shortages will be assuaged by adding 2bcfd-eqivalent of wind/solar each year and ramping LNG from 75MTpa in 2019 and 160MTpa in 2030.
Amidst the shortages, however, it is harder to phase out coal and nuclear, harder to ramp electric vehicles and hydrogen (they must be powered) and it is going to become necessary to re-prioritize domestic production.
Our pricing outlook worries about price spikes continuing in 2023, and until demand is forcibly lowered, perhaps even via rationing.
Variables that can be flexed in the model, for stress-testing purposes, include the growth rates of renewables (wind and solar), the rise of electric vehicles, the rise of heat pumps, the phase out of coal and nuclear, industrial activity, efficiency gains, LNG and hydrogen.
Our European gas supply demand model also contains granular data, decomposing gas demand across 8 major categories, plus 13 industrial segments, going back to 1990 (albeit some of the latest data-points are lagged); as well as 15 different supply sources, with monthly data going back a decade (chart below).
Data through 2021 are shown below, including a depressing 5% reduction in indigenous gas production, which has almost trebled Europe’s reliance upon Russian gas imports. The data-file was last updated in September-2022, containing data through 1H22, although some data-points in back-up tabs remain lagged as they have not been released yet by sources such as Eurostat.
Please download the model to run your own scenarios. The buttons below allow you to select the 2021 version of the model, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and our updated 2022 model, which envisages various changes, as discussed in our latest outlook for European natural gas.