Oil
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US shale: outlook and forecasts?
This model sets out our US shale production forecasts by basin. It covers the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Marcellus/Utica and Haynesville, as a function of the rig count, drilling productivity, completion rates, well productivity and type curves. The data-file was last updated in May-2025, revising liquids growth negative in 2025-26, which in turn tightens US…
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Refining self-sufficiency by country?
Which countries are self-sufficient in refining capacity? Which countries export oil products? And which are least self-reliant, thus needing to import oil products, and potentially facing shortfalls in disrupted markets? This data-file estimates global oil refining self-sufficiency by country.
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Seismic shift: how is AI reshaping oil exploration?
The global seismic industry is worth $10bn pa. But an additional $10bn pa of value could be unlocked by AI. This 19-page report finds promising progress with AI in seismic, uplifting the value of seismic hardware and multi-client libraries. But the theme is still in early innings. Who benefits?
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Mature oil basins: an ocean of oil still to find?
There is an ocean of oil (and gas) still to find, even in some of the most mature hydrocarbon basins in the world, but finding it will almost certainly require improved seismic, possibly enhanced by AI, as shown by this case study, tracking the sizes of oil resources, discovered off Norway, from 1969 to present.
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Leading seismic and geophysics companies?
This data-file screens 14 leading seismic and geophysics companies, based on company disclosures and reviewing c500 patents over the past 20-years. This restructured and increasingly consolidated industry is now worth $10bn pa. Companies have recently generated c10% EBIT margins. But capabilities are growing and costs are deflating through deploying AI?
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Heavy truck costs: diesel, gas, electric or hydrogen?
Heavy truck costs are estimated at $0.14 per ton-kilometer, for a truck typically carrying 15 tons of load and traversing over 150,000 miles per annum. Today these trucks consume 10Mbpd of diesel and their costs absorb 4% of post-tax incomes. Hydrogen trucks would be 45-75% more costly, but from 2026, we are starting to see…
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Oil price elasticity of demand: how high can oil prices go?
What is the price elasticity of oil demand — globally, by region, and by product? This 11-page report argues that a supply disruption of 10-20Mbpd magnitude, lasting for 6-12 months, pushes oil above $250/bbl, and also zeroes global GDP growth. Rationing and solar/EV substitution may cushion the impact.
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Exploration capex: long-term spending from Oil Majors?
This data-file tabulates the Oil Majors’ exploration capex from the mid-1990s, in headline terms (in billions of dollars) and in per-barrel terms (in $/boe of production). Exploration spending quadrupled from $1/boe in 1995-2005 to $4/boe in 2005-19, and has since collapsed like a warm Easter Egg. Exploration has been de-prioritized. Perhaps wrongly?
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Development capex: long-term spending from Oil Majors?
This data-file tabulates the five ‘Big Oil’ Super-Majors’ development capex from the mid-1990s, in headline terms (billions of dollars) and in per-barrel terms ($/boe of production). Real development capex quadrupled from $6/boe in 1995-2000 to $24/boe in 2010-15, collapsed to $10/boe, then recovered to $13.5/boe.
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Global oil demand: breakdown by product by country?
This data-file breaks down global oil demand, country-by-country, product-by-product, month-by-month, across 2017-2025. Global oil demand ran at 104 Mbpd in 2025, for +1.0 Mbpd of growth. For perspective, global oil demand rose at +1.2Mbpd per year in the 30-years from 1989->2019, so there is not much evidence, on face value, that “peak oil is nigh”.
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