This data-file quantifies the CO2 intensity of oil sands production: disaggregating averge emission factors for both mining operations and SAGD. Emissions are estimated for running trucks, bitumen extraction, steam-flooding, upgrading, methane leaks, flaring, et al; based on real-world data.
A CO2 curvecan also be derived from the data, ranking c2.5Mbpd of production across Alberta, in order to compare different facilities and different operators. Steam-oil-ratios explain c60% of the variance in SAGD assets’ emissions.
CO2 and methane intensities are tabulated for 300 distinct company positions across 9 distinct basins in this data-file. Using the data, we can aggregate the total CO2 in (kg/boe) and methane leakage rates (as a percent of natural gas production) across the US’s different basins.
Covered basins include the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Marcellus/Utica, Alaska, GoM, Powder River, San Juan, Anadarko basin and DJ basin (chart above).
It is possible to rank the best companies in each basin, using the granular data, to identify industry leaders and laggards (chart below).
We model the economics of powering an oil platform from shore, using cheap renewable power instead of traditional gas turbines. This can lower upstream CO2 emissions by 5-15kg/bbl, or on average, around 70%; for a base case cost of $50-100/ton.
Our numbersare derived from reviewing technical papers, plus ten prior projects (mostly in Norway), which are tabulated in the data-file, including capex figures (in $M and $/W) where disclosed.
The costs of CO2 abatementcan be flexed by varying inputs to the model, such as project size, gas prices, power prices and carbon prices.
Lower carbon oil and gas may be increasingly valued by investors, earning higher multiples and lower costs of capital. This is the conclusion from our recent investor survey, linked here.
c80% now find it harder to invest in oil and gas, because of the need to decarbonise energy. However, 90% see lower carbon barrels as part of the solution. Hence 80% stated that lower capital costs could be warranted for these lower carbon producers.
Higher carbon barrelsare currently being punished with c6% higher costs of capital, on average, compared with more typical projects. However, lower carbon barrels are not yet being rewarded, ascribed just 2% lower costs of capital, according to the survey data.
We will be happy to send a free copy of the data-file to all those that complete the survey, otherwise, it can be purchased below.
This data-file calculates the CO2 intensity of oilfield supply chains, across ten different resources, as materials are transported to drilling rigs, frac crews, production platforms and well pads.
Different resources can be ranked on this measure of supply chain CO2-intensity: such as the Permian, the Gulf of Mexico, offshore Norway, Guyana, pre-salt Brazil and Middle East onshore production (chart above).
Underlying the calculations are modeling assumptions, for both onshore and offshore operations, each based on c15 input variables. You can change the inputs to run your own scenarios, or test the most effective ways to lower supply-chain CO2.
This data-file tabulates Permian CO2 intensity based on regulatory disclosures from 20 of the leading producers to the EPA in 2018. Hence we can calculate the basin’s upstream emissions, in tons and in kg/boe.
The data are fully disaggregatedby company, across the 20 largest Permian E&Ps, Majors and independents; and across 18 different categories, such as combustion, flaring, venting, pneumatics, storage tanks and methane leaks.
A positiveis that CO2 intensity is -52% correlated with operator production volumes, which suggests CO2 intensity can be reduced over time, as the industry grows and consolidates into the hands of larger companies.
This data-model calculates risk-adjusted returnsavailable for different portfolio weightings in the energy sector, as companies diversify across upstream, downstream, chemicals, corporate, renewables and CCS investments. The methodology is a mean-variance optimisation based on modern portfolio theory.
Should Oil Majors become Renewable Energy Majors? Our model indicates returns would decrease by allocating more capital to renewables, but certain renewable allocations can nevertheless increase risk-adjusted returns, as quantified using Sharpe Ratios.
Please download the model to test the impacts of flexing portfolio weightings; either at our own risks, returns and diversification benefits; or under your own assumptions which can be tweaked in the model.
This data-file estimates the CO2 intensity of drilling oil wells, in our usual units of kg/boe. The calculations are conducted bottom-up, based on fuel consumption at onshore, offshore and deep-water rigs; plus drilling days and typical resource volumes per well.
Drilling wells is not the largest portion of the oil industry’s total CO2 intensity. Nevertheless there is a 50x spread between the best and worst barrels, which is wider than other categories we have screened.
Prolific fieldswill have the lowest drilling-CO2 intensities, particularly where they are onshore (e.g., Saudi Arabia). Infill wells at mature deepwater fields may have the highest drilling-CO2.