Renewables
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Advanced geothermal: modeling the reservoir?
How long does a geothermal well have to be to avoid thermal depletion? To answer this question, we built our own reservoir model, which is outlined in this 12-page report. Advanced Geothermal would require 10-100km laterals, which is cost prohibitive. Enhanced Geothermal or geothermal for ‘winter heating’ may fare better.
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Advanced geothermal: reservoir model?
This data-file is a geothermal reservoir model, showing how a lateral well could harvest heat from the sub-surface, cool the rock surrounding the well, and ultimately settle at a “steady state” (in MW-th), where the flow of heat into the well from surrounding rock layers matches the rate of heat extraction. Inputs can be stress-tested.
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Global electricity: by source, by use, by region?
Global electricity supply-demand is disaggregated in this data-file, by source, by use, by region, from 1990 to 2050, triangulating across all of our other models in the energy transition, and culminating in over 50 fascinating charts, which can be viewed in this data-file. Global electricity demand rises 3x by 2050 in our outlook.
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Levelized cost of electricity: stress-testing LCOE?
This data-file summarizes the levelized cost of electricity, across 35 different generation sources, covering 20 different data-fields for each source. Costs of generating electricity can vary from 2-200 c/kWh. The is more variability within categories than between them. Numbers can readily be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Renewables+gas LCOEs versus standalone gas turbines?
Levelized costs of electricity depend as much on the system being electrified as the energy sources used to electrify it. This data-file captures solar+gas LCOEs (in c/kWh), when meeting different load profiles, as a function of solar capex (in $/kW), gas prices (in $/mcf), and the relative utilization of solar vs gas.
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Wind and solar capacity additions?
Global wind and solar capacity additions reached 630GW pa (AC-basis) in 2025, which is 3x 2020 levels and 10x 2011 levels. The pace of gross wind and solar capacity additions can rise by a further 3x by 2050, bringing wind and solar to 55% of a greatly expanded global power grid by 2050. Most of…
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Wind and solar: curtailments over time?
Wind and solar curtailments now average 8% across different grids that we have evaluated in this data-file, and have generally been rising over time, especially in 2024-25. The key reason is grid bottlenecks. Grid expansions are crucial for wind and solar to continue expanding.
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Geothermal energy: costs and economics?
Geothermal energy costs are modelled from first principles in this data-file. LCOEs of 6c/kWh are available in geothermal hotspots. Outside of the hotspots, enhanced geothermal heat can cost 2-14c/kWh-th for a 10% IRR on $500-5,000/kW-th capex, while a rule of thumb is that geothermal electricity costs 5x geothermal heat.
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MOSFETs: energy use and power loss calculator?
MOSFETs are fast-acting digital switches, used to transform electricity, across new energies and digital devices. MOSFET power losses are built up from first principles in this data-file, averaging 2% per MOSFET, with a range of 1-10% depending on voltage, switching, on resistance, operating temperature and reverse recovery charge.
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Grid connection costs: wind, solar, power, data centers?
Cost of grid connection is shaping up to be a major bottleneck for the continued acceleration of new energies. A good baseline is to expect $100-300/kW of grid inter-connection costs, or $3-10/kW-km, over a typical distance of 10-70 km. But the requirement to fund network upgrade costs can push grid connections to cost more than…
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