the research consultancy for energy technologies
Our written research into the energy transition profiles different opportunities, “how they work”, their costs, technical challenges, and leading companies; in PDF research reports that are available to TSE subscription clients.
Our philosophy is that research into the energy transition should help decision-makers by breaking down this enormous topic into concise research notes, each of which tackles a single specific question. Then tackles that question as concisely as possible. In no more than 10-20 pages. (Our job is not to write ‘War and Peace’. It is to save you time and get you the right information quickly, simply).
All of the underlying data behind our research into the energy transition is published transparently on our website. If there are any specific questions that you would like to be addressed with a TSE research note, then please do email us, and we are happy to add your questions onto our research list.
All of our written research into the energy transition is summarized on this page, in chronological order, for clients with our ‘written insights subscription’.
Chips must usually be kept below 27ºC, hence 10-20% of both the capex and energy consumption of a typical data-center is cooling, as explored in this 14-page report. How much does climate matter? What changes lie ahead? And which companies sell into this soon-to-double market for cooling equipment?
Rising energy demands of AI are now the biggest uncertainty in all of global energy. To understand why, this 17-page note is an overview of AI computing from first principles, across transistors, DRAM, GPUs and deep learning. GPU efficiency will inevitably increase, but compute increases faster. AI most likely uses 300-2,500 TWH in 2030, with a base case of 1,000 TWH.
FERC regulations are surprisingly interesting!! In theory, gas pipelines are not allowed to have market power. But they increasingly do have it: gas use is rising, on grid bottlenecks, volatile renewables and AI; while new pipeline investments are being hindered. So who benefits here? Answers are explored in this 13-page report.
The power demands of AI will contribute to the largest growth of new generation capacity in history. This 18-page note evaluates the power implications of AI data-centers. Reliability is crucial. Gas demand grows. Annual sales of CCGTs and back-up gensets in the US both rise by 2.5x?
This note summarizes the key conclusions from our energy transition research in 1Q24 and across 1,400 companies in total. Volatility is rising. Power grids are bottlenecked. Hence what stands out in capital goods, clean-tech, solar, gas value chains and materials? And what is most overlooked?
What if large quantities of power could be transmitted via the 2-6 GHz microwave spectrum, rather than across bottlenecked cables and wires? This 12-page note explores the technology, advantages, opportunities, challenges, efficiencies and costs. We still fear power grid bottlenecks.
What if the world is entering an era of persistent power grid bottlenecks, with long delays to interconnect new loads? Everything changes. Hence this 16-page report looks across the energy and industrial landscape, to rank the implications across different sectors and companies.
Power grids will be the biggest bottleneck in the energy transition, according to this 18-page report. Tensions have been building for a decade. They are invisible unless you are looking. And the tightness could last a decade. Further acceleration of renewables may be thwarted. And we are re-thinking grid back-ups.
Energy transition is the largest construction project in human history. But building in boom times is associated with 2-3x cost inflation. This 10-page note reviews five case studies of prior capex booms, and argues for accelerating FIDs, even in 2024. The outlook for project developers depends on their timing? And who benefits across the supply chain?
Is Babcock and Wilcox’s BrightLoop technology a game-changer for producing low-carbon hydrogen from solid fuels, while also releasing a pure stream of CO2 for CCS? Conclusions and deep-dive details are covered in this data-file, allowing us to guess at BrightLoop’s energy efficiency and a moat around Babcock’s reactor designs?
Chemical Looping Combustion harvests the energy from a fuel, while also producing a relatively pure stream of CO2, by avoiding the oxidation of the fuel in air (78% nitrogen) and instead circulating solid carrier particles through separate reactors (schematic below).
We first wrote about decarbonized carbon in 2019, in a note that identified NET Power’s Allam Cycle Oxy-Combustion process as the leading concept in the space. NET Power has since become a public company with $1.7bn market cap at the time of writing.
Hence what other decarbonized carbon technologies are worth watching? Since 2023, Babcock & Wilcox has been vociferously describing its BrightLoop technology, which is a Chemical Looping Combustion (CLC) technology generating clean hydrogen from hydrocarbon fuels (e.g., coal, biomass, waste or possibly gas).
Babcock & Wilcox is an American energy services company, founded in 1867, headquartered in Akron, Ohio, with 2300 employees, listed on NYSE. It has a $100M market cap at the time of writing, targeting $1bn pa of revenues in 2024 and $100-110M of EBITDA.
Could BrightLoop be a gamechanger? Babcock has said that BrightLoop “greatly reduces the amount of energy and fossil fuel required to produce hydrogen”. And its costs can be “better than current large-scale hydrogen generation technologies such as SMR”. It has been piloted in three locations since 2014. The first commercial unit is in development. And the company has said BrightLoop ultimately has the potential to generate another $1bn pa in revenues.
Hence how does BrightLoop technology work? We have reviewed Babcock’s BrightLoop patents in order to address this question. The image below is based on some guesswork from one of three patents in particular.
We think the patents are high-quality, enabling us to guess at the reaction conditions and energy economics of BrightLoop. Conclusions and deep-dive details are covered in this data-file. We also found many underlying components that are locked up with patents.
Future variants of BrightLoop are also suggested by the patents, which could produce both CO and H2, for clean methanol or Fischer-Tropsch fuels.