This global energy supply-demand model combines our supply outlooks for coal, oil, gas, LNG, wind and solar, nuclear and hydro, into a build-up of useful global energy balances in 2023-30. 2026 will be a year of recalibration, as global energy markets shift from c1% over-supply in 2025 to -0.5% under-supply in 2027?
Useful global energy demand grew at a CAGR of +2.1% per year since 1990, and +3.0% in 2015-19. Demand ‘wants’ to grow by +2% per year through 2030, due to higher populations and rising living standards (model here), but the dawn of the AI age increases the CAGR to 2.5% pa.
Renewables have been rising rapidly, especially solar additions, per our model here, whcih reached 700GW in 2025, on a DC module basis. A key surprise for 2026-27 may be a slowdown in the rate of solar growth?
Demand for hydrocarbons is increasing at 1.3% pa, to satisfy rising energy demand. Global coal use hit another all time high of 8.9GTpa in 2025, but is seen maturing and plateauing (model here).
Oil demand rose by almost 1MBpd in 2025 and will rise by over 1Mbpd in 2026, and our plateau is now pushed back to 2030 (model here) as OPEC and US shale (model here) offset decline rates elsewhere.
LNG supplies rise from 400MTpa in 2023 to 700MTpa by 2031 (risked) but the increases are mainly 2027+ (model here) while for 2026 the marginal supply source for US LNG may be higher-cost.
Other variables in the model include rising energy efficiency (note here), the need for a nuclear renaissance (note here), ideally scaling back the use of deforestation wood (model here) and others that can be flexed.
What is important about this balance is that it must balance over the medium-term. The first law of thermodynamics dictates that energy demand cannot exceed supplies. In the short-medium term, recent evidence suggests that emerging world coal is the balancing line, as China and India have consistently prioritized self-sufficient energy over decarbonization.
All of the lines in the model can be stress-tested. Our own preferences would see more solar and more natural gas, unlocking a more efficient and flexible energy system, to meet more energy demand, which can genuinely improve human outcomes, both in energy transition and beyond.