The purpose of this data-file is to enable some simple scenario testing for supply-demand balances in the global energy system. I.e. what energy supplies are most likely to be available from 2020-2030 to meet global energy demand, looking across coal, oil, gas, nuclear, wind, solar and other sources?
Worsening energy shortages are most likely, based on what we are currently seeing. If underlying energy demand ‘wants’ to grow by around 2% per year, while we phase back coal and nuclear, put oil and gas on a “plateau”, and ramp renewables by an astounding 1 TW per year by 2030, then we think energy shortages will deepen to around 10% total under-supply by 2030.
Possible resolutions could be if energy prices rise so high as to “destroy demand”, and thus total final energy use only grows 1% per year (not 2%), or if gas output grows 6% per year (not flat), or some combination of the two. It seems challenging to resolve energy shortages by other means.
Please download the data-file to stress test your own scenarios. Other metrics in the file include CO2 emissions and the total capital investment in primary energy (in $bn pa) that is associated with the scenarios.