Long-Term LNG Supply: Path-Dependent?

Our LNG supply model looks project-by-project, across 115 LNG facilites: including c40 mature plants, c15 under development, c20 in design and c30 under discussion.

Our base case supply estimates come from “risking” the supply associated with each of these projects (chart below).

The outlook depends on the path. The 2030 supply outlook can vary by 250MTpa, when comparing all reasonably possible supply (top chart) against the firm supply-growth that looks all but locked (bottom chart).

The greatest opportunities in LNG are therefore to create new demand and to advance competitive projects when others are cannot. To see which projects we think will progress, please download the data-file.