Our LNG supply model looks project-by-project, across 120 LNG facilites: including c40 mature plants, c10 under development, c20 in design and c30 under discussion.
Our base case supply estimates come from “risking” the supply associated with each of these projects (chart below). Use of LNG should rise at over 8% per year to drive the energy transition and displace coal, but there are only enough developments underway for a 4% CAGR out to 2025, as COVID has deferred 50MTpa of start-ups.
The outlook depends on the path. The 2030 supply outlook can vary by 325MTpa, when comparing all reasonably possible supply (top chart) against the firm supply-growth that looks all but locked (bottom chart). Qatar and select US projects are the most exciting new supply sources.
The greatest opportunities in LNG are therefore to create new demand and to advance competitive projects when others are cannot. To see which projects we think will progress, please download the data-file.