Global LNG output ran at 380MTpa in 2021, and just below 400MTpa in 2022. This model estimates global LNG supplies by project across 130 LNG facilities. Our best estimate is that global LNG supply will grow at a 6.8% CAGR, expanding from c400MTpa in 2020 to 670MTpa by 2030, for an absolute growth rate of +35MTpa per year. However, the growth is back-end loaded.
2023-24 will each be lucky to achieve a painfully slow, +10MTpa of annual supply growth. This is the time when the world is most in need of new gas supplies, especially to alleviate Europe’s gas shortages.
The cavalry does not arrive until 2026-30, with an average of +50MTpa per year of growth, from projects that are currently in development. But there are risks here too. 50MTpa of the 2026-28 supply growth is from Qatar’s North Field expansion. 20MTpa is from new LNG in Canada. Development projects have a habit of sliding to the right, even versus our ‘risked’ forecasts.
US LNG is also seen ramping up to over 200MTpa of LNG by 2030, representing +120MTpa of growth from 2022’s baseline. This is a truly enormous number and would make US LNG supplies 3x larger than Qatar’s, world-leading, 75MTpa production volumes over the past decade; and even 50% larger than Qatar’s future production after the expansion of the North Field.
FIDs. Our 2026-30 supply growth also includes 100MTpa of new projects that have not yet been FID’ed. This requires an acceleration in the pace of FIDs. Only 1 FID was taken in 2020. Only 3 in 2021. 7 FIDs were taken in 2022, which will add c50MTpa of risked production by 2030. 14 projects could be FID’ed in 2023, adding 110MTpa of unrisked volumes by 2030, of which we have de-risked 55MTpa. And another 14 projects could be FID’ed in 2024, with 150MTpa of unrisked capacity, of which we have only de-risked c35MTpa by 2030, due to uncertainties and timings. The full list of projects is in the data-file.
Compared to our early-2022 estimates, we now see 2023-25 volumes 2.5MTpa weaker each year, mainly due to disruptions ramping Russian and other LNG projects. We are also revising down longer-term volumes from Russian and African projects in 2025-30 by 5-10MTpa each. This is offset by mind-blowingly fast progress in US LNG, elsewhere in North America, and Australia.
One of the biggest risks for global energy security, in our view, is paralysis in progressing pre- and post-FID LNG projects. In turn, this hands upside to incumbent LNG producers. We also see upside for spot cargoes in a world that is persistently under-supplied with energy yet remains overly cautious of signing long-term contracts.
Model mechanics. This data-file of global LNG supplies works by assigning a “risking level” to each upcoming project. You can flex the output in the ProjectByProject tab to stress test “firm” supplies, various risking levels, and a “best case” production scenario. As a historical record, we have also ‘frozen’ all of our forecasts from mid-2022 in the dark grey tabs. The main database covers our supply forecasts across 130 LNG facilities and projects, other project parameters, and detailed notes.