Global LNG output ran at 417MTpa in 2025. This model estimates global LNG production by facility across 150 LNG facilities. Our latest forecasts are that global LNG demand will rise at a 6% CAGR, to reach 750MTpa by 2035, for an absolute growth rate of +30MTpa per year. But there is a construction boom underway.
Global LNG production in 2025 ran at 417MTpa, of which 24% was from the United States, 19% was from Qatar and 18% was from Australia, as the three largest producers. Over the past decade, global LNG production has risen at +17MTpa each year.
This data-file breaks down global LNG production by facility, across each of 150 LNG plants, assessing recent news flow, and then estimating their production in each year from 2018-2035. For pre-FID facilities, we ascribe a ‘risking factor’, according to their likelihood of being built.
Delays and disruptions are prevalent across our project-tracking. Out of 70 projects that we were tracking in 2024, 40% saw delays. Out of 70 projects that we were tracking in 2025, 32% were delayed and 16% were cancelled. This matters for our energy balances in Europe, China and Japan.
Major supply growth is expected from 2028 on our numbers. 50MTpa of the 2026-28 supply growth is from Qatar’s North Field expansion. 20MTpa is from new LNG in Canada. But the biggest source of growth…
US LNG almost reached 100MTpa in 2025, as charted below, and will likely double to 200MTpa by 2030. Our notes and risking on each project are in the data-file. But a major theme for 2026, amidst falling shale oil output, which in turn means falling associated gas, may be the need to source marginal US gas from higher cost resources, inflating the marginal cost of global LNG to maybe $10/mcf.
Looking out longer term, we see potential for the global LNG industry to reach 1,100MTpa by 2050 as part of the energy transition. This would take LNG from 10% of global gas a decade ago, through 13.5% of global gas in 2023, to 25% of global gas in 2050.
One of the biggest risks for global energy security, in our view, is paralysis in progressing pre- and post-FID LNG projects. LNG liquefaction economics are modeled here. In turn, this hands upside to incumbent LNG producers.
We also see upside for spot cargoes in a world that is persistently under-supplied with energy yet remains overly cautious of signing long-term contracts, and increasingly for LNG marketers, amidst the build-out of renewables, there is value in volatility.
Global LNG production by facility: model mechanics. This data-file of global LNG supplies works by assigning a “risking level” to each upcoming project. You can flex the output in the ProjectByProject tab to stress test “firm” supplies, various risking levels, and a “best case” production scenario. As a historical record, we have also ‘frozen’ all of our forecasts from 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 in the dark grey tabs. The main database covers our supply forecasts across 150 LNG facilities and projects, other project parameters, and detailed notes.