global oil demand breakdown

Global oil demand: breakdown by product by country?

This data-file breaks down global oil demand, country-by-country, product-by-product, month-by-month, across 2017-2022. The goal is to summarize the effects of COVID, and the subsequent recovery in oil markets. Global oil demand is hitting new highs, even though several product categories are still not fully recovered.

Overall, global oil demand fell by -22Mbpd at trough in April-2020; and by an average of -9Mbpd YoY in 2020 overall. In 2021, two thirds of the lost demand recovered, but global oil demand was still -3Mbpd below 2019 levels. However, 2022 demand most likely hit all-time highs (chart above).

Comparing 2022 versus 2019. We think total oil demand was around 100Mbpd in both years. But strikingly, air travel is nowhere close to having fully recovered. Jet fuel demand remains -2Mbpd below 2019 levels, portending possible upside in 2023+. Relatedly, gasoline demand remains -0.8Mbpd below 2019, of which the decline is entirely in the developed world, and probably also linked to travel activity remaining somewhat disrupted.

All other categories are making new highs. In 2022, distillate demand was +0.6Mbpd above 2019 levels (-0.6Mbpd in the OECD, +1.2Mbpd in non-OECD, and a lot of the charts in the data-file show a trend like the one below).

Likewise, in 2022 versus 2019, naphtha use was +0.5Mbpd above, LPG use was +0.4Mbpd above and NGL use was +0.4Mbpd above (all three of these lines feed into global plastics demand). Fuel oil use was +0.4Mbpd above (chart below).

Overall this data-set confirms our fears that renewables, EVs and other new energies would all need to ramp about 3-5x faster than their likely run-rate in the 2020s to stop oil demand (and even coal demand) from continuing to rise (note here).

This matters because in 2020, many commentators were stating that 2019 would have been the all-time peak for fossil fuels, that demand would never recover to pre-COVID levels, and that the world should therefore “stop investing” in hydrocarbons. Even today, we worry that some commentators are still materially over-estimating future efficiency gains in the global energy system (note here). A lack of pragmatism worries us (note here). Long-term energy shortages worry us (note here). Our LT oil demand model is here.

However, there is some uncertainty in this data-set, as the original data-source (JODI) only covers 80% of the oil market. We estimate the remaining countries by taking a proxy from “analogous countries” (the methodology is described in our original report here). Meanwhile some of the reported data look suspect. Most notably, “other product demand” in China is a very large and erratic data-line.

Copyright: Thunder Said Energy, 2019-2023.

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Updated 24th January 2020.

Thunder Said Energy Policy for the Processing of Data Governed by GDPR

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