This model forecasts long-run oil demand to 2050, end-use by end-use, year-by-year, region-by-region; across the US, the OECD and the non-OECD. We see demand gently rising through the 2020s post-COVID, peaking at 104Mbpd in 2030, then gently falling to 85Mbpd by 2050 in the energy transition.
Underlying workings are shown in seven subsequent tabs. The model has been updated in Mar-2021 to reflect COVID and autonomous vehicles.
The model runs off 25 input variables, such as GDP growth, electric vehicle penetration and oil-to-gas switching. You can flex these input assumptions, in order to run your own scenarios.
Our scenario foresees gently increases from 101Mbpd in 2022 to 104Mbpd in 2030. This is the peak for global oil demand. It is followed by a gradual decline to 85Mbpd in 2050.
This reflects 7 major technology themes, assessed in depth, in our recent deep-dive report and COVID considerations, assessed in depth in a further deep-dive report. Our pre-COVID model is also included as a separate file for reference, for anyone wishing to audit how numbers have changed.
Oil demand by region. OECD oil demand has already peaked, at 50Mbpd in 2005, had softened to 48Mbpd in 2019 and is seen falling to 23Mbpd by 2050, effectively all for hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as planes and freight.
Non-OECD oil demand has risen from 35Mbpd in 2005 to 52Mbpd in 2019 and is seen rising to 62Mbpd by 2050. This is even after two-thirds of future EM passenger cars are assumed to be electric.
Without delivering the technology improvements in our research, total global oil demand would most likely keep growing to 130Mbpd by 2050, due to global population growth and greater economic development in the emerging world.
Please download the data-file to stress test your own long-run oil demand forecasts, and evaluate oil demand by category, oil demand by region and oil demand by end use.