Long-run oil demand forecasts

Long-Run Oil Demand Model

This model forecasts long-run oil demand to 2050, end-use by end-use, year-by-year, region-by-region; across the US, the OECD and the non-OECD. We see demand gently rising through the 2020s post-COVID, peaking at 104Mbpd in 2030, then gently falling to 85Mbpd by 2050 in the energy transition.

Underlying workings are shown in seven subsequent tabs. The model has been updated in Mar-2021 to reflect COVID and autonomous vehicles.

The model runs off 25 input variables, such as GDP growth, electric vehicle penetration and oil-to-gas switching. You can flex these input assumptions, in order to run your own scenarios.

Our scenario foresees gently increases from 101Mbpd in 2022 to 104Mbpd in 2030. This is the peak for global oil demand. It is followed by a gradual decline to 85Mbpd in 2050.

This reflects 7 major technology themes, assessed in depth, in our recent deep-dive report and COVID considerations, assessed in depth in a further deep-dive report. Our pre-COVID model is also included as a separate file for reference, for anyone wishing to audit how numbers have changed.

Oil demand by region. OECD oil demand has already peaked, at 50Mbpd in 2005, had softened to 48Mbpd in 2019 and is seen falling to 23Mbpd by 2050, effectively all for hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as planes and freight.

Non-OECD oil demand has risen from 35Mbpd in 2005 to 52Mbpd in 2019 and is seen rising to 62Mbpd by 2050. This is even after two-thirds of future EM passenger cars are assumed to be electric.

Without delivering the technology improvements in our research, total global oil demand would most likely keep growing to 130Mbpd by 2050, due to global population growth and greater economic development in the emerging world.

Please download the data-file to stress test your own long-run oil demand forecasts, and evaluate oil demand by category, oil demand by region and oil demand by end use.

Copyright: Thunder Said Energy, 2019-2023.

... or Sign In

Receive our best ideas, as we publish them?

We provide differentiated insights to the leading decision-makers in energy. Our work includes written research, downloadable data and models. The aim is to save you time and help your process. If this sounds useful, then please sign up below...

TERMS & CONDITIONS

This page includes all of Thunder Said Energy’s terms, conditions, its privacy policy, its GDPR policy and other relevant contact details. By accessing our content, you agree to abide by these terms of use. We also have formal policies for Conflicts of Interests, MNPI and employee policies (upon request).

Terms of Use

1. Use of the Thunder Said Energy Website

These conditions are a legal agreement between you and Thunder Said Energy (“we” or “us”). They set out the basis on which you may make use of Thunder Said Energy’s services, accessed through www.thundersaidenergy.com (the “site”), whether as a guest or a subscribing client.

Please read these conditions before you use the Site, as they will apply. You must not use the site if you do not agree to them.

We reserve the right to change these conditions at a later date.

2. Information about Thunder Said Energy

Thunder Said Energy Inc. is a corporation registered in Texas, in January-2021. Previously, Thunder Said Energy LLC operated as a company in Connecticut, United States, effective April-2019.

3. Accuracy of Content

The information on the site (our “content”) is for general information purposes. It is not intended to address your particular requirements.

We have no liability for any loss or damage arising from using our content.

Our content shall not be construed as investment advice on the merits of buying, selling, subscribing to, or underwriting any shares, securities of other financial investments. You do any of the above entirely at your own risk: Thunder Said Energy shall have no liability for any adverse consequences thereof.

We strive for, but do not guarantee, the accuracy of our content. We do not represent that it is error-free, will be corrected or that your use will provide specific results. If you believe anything is inaccurate, please let us know via email, so we may update it as appropriate.

The future is uncertain. There can be no assurance that our opinions, forecasts or estimates will be realized.

You hereby acknowledge that the risk to the accuracy and completeness of our content, and any reliance upon it, is with you.

4. Limitation of Liability

Thunder Said Energy will not be liable for any loss of profits, business, contracts, revenue, goodwill or anticipated savings or other indirect losses

Nothing in these terms seeks to exclude or limit any liability that cannot be excluded or limited by US, UK or European law.

5. Intellectual Property Rights

Our content, including any information, imagery or materials created by us are owned by and are confidential to Thunder Said Energy and are protected by copyright.

Documents and models downloaded from Thunder Said Energy’s website are for the exclusive use of their purchaser.

Any citation of our content, including short passages of text is to be attributed to Thunder Said Energy, plus a link to our website www.thundersaidenergy.com. We would appreciate it if you sought our prior approval for citing our content.

Distributing, reproducing, transmitting or re-selling our content in any medium, whole or in part, is prohibited without prior permission of Thunder Said Energy. We reserve the right to prosecute against illegal copying or sharing of our content.

You may not alter, obscure or remove any trade marks from our content.

6. Links

Other websites and resources are linked on our site with the aim of helping our users.

All are independent from Thunder Said Energy.

Thunder Said Energy does not accept any responsibility for the content or the use of linked websites and resources; or of the content of other sites that link to ours.

Use of any links is made at your own risk. You must take your own precautions to ensure any selected link or download is free from any viruses or other unpleasantness.

You must not link to our website from any site that is indecent, inappropriate or unlawful.

7. Accessing Our Content

You may be provided with a username and password to access our content. You are responsible for keeping them confidential

You may not share the username and password with, or transfer them to any third party.

You must notify Thunder Said Energy immediately if you become aware of any unauthorised use of your user name and password, or any other breach of security.

If your access to our content occurs through a corporate account, your rights to access our content may cease if your employment terminates at that company, which will be at the discretion of Thunder Said Energy.

You and your company are responsible for notifying Thunder Said Energy of any termination of employment, and any unauthorised use of our content after your employment ceases.

8. Payments and Wallet

All payment details entered into Thunder Said Energy’s website are controlled by third parties, such as Stripe. At no time does Thunder Said Energy see or store your payment details.

In order to facilitate purchasing our content, Thunder Said Energy maintains a ‘wallet’ system for its customers and clients. Clients can add credit into their wallet, which is later redeemable for content on our site. Discounts may also be offered for customers who buy using the wallet function.

There is no guarantee of being able to use the full balance in your wallet. The value in the wallet does not have any monetary value outside of Thunder Said Energy’s website. It is not transferable or subject to interest or refundable. It is not refundable, except at Thunder Said energy’s discretion.

9. Viruses

Thunder Said Energy does not guarantee that its site will be secure or free from bugs or viruses. You are responsible for configuring your own virus protection software.

You must not misuse the site by knowingly seeking to introduce viruses, trojans, worms, logic bombs or other material which is malicious or technologically harmful.

You must not attempt to gain unauthorised access to the Site, its server, or any computer or database connected to the Site.

In the event of breaching these conditions, Thunder Said Energy will cooperate with relevant law enforcement authorities, may disclose your identity to them, and your right to use the site will cease.

10. Privacy and Cookies

Thunder Said Energy’s policy on data protection, privacy and cookies is set out in our privacy notice and cookie policy. You are encouraged to read both of these.

11. Governing Law and Jurisdiction

These terms of use and their formation are governed primarily by US. UK and European laws may also apply, based upon your location.

Thunder Said Energy may pursue injunctive relief or similar to enforce the provisions of these terms of use in any appropriate forum.

12. General

Any formal legal notices to Thunder Said Energy must be sent to [email protected]

Failure by Thunder Said Energy to enforce a right does not result in a waiver of such right.

If any provision in these terms of use is deemed invalid or unenforceable, the rest of these terms will remain in full force and effect.

These terms of use, privacy notice and cookie policy, constitute the entire agreement between you and Thunder Said Energy relating to your use of the Site, and supersede all other or previous agreements.

Thunder Said Energy may amend these terms at any time by posting such changes on this page of the site.

13. Further Information

Further information on these terms or any queries may be made by contacting Thunder Said Energy via the postal address, email address or phone numbers below.

Privacy Policy

Thunder Said Energy (“we”, “us”) respects your preferences on the collection and use of your personal information. The following statements explain our policies.

We are committed to protecting your privacy, while using our websites, products and services (our “platform”).

You should review this Privacy Policy periodically to keep up to date on our most current policies; as we reserve the right, at any time, to modify this Privacy Policy.

Any changes will be posted in this Privacy Policy. Any material changes may also be notified, e.g., via email.

1. Scope

This Policy applies to our platform. It provides you with guidance on your rights and obligations pertaining to your personal information.

2. Collection of Personal Information

Our general philosophy and ambition is to safeguard your personal data by minimising what we collect, and storing what we do collect in a secure manner.

Thunder Said Energy is the data controller for personal data we collect through our platform.

Thunder Said Energy will collect personal information that is necessary for our business: to improve the usability of our platform and help us tailor content for you.

Specifically, when you register with Thunder Said Energy, we will collect your name, email address, location, subscription preferences and preferred method of contact.

We may collect additional information, including what content you have accessed from our website and our email distribution list.

Collecting personal information will be self-apparent or will be disclosed to you at the time of collection: most often, when you enter it into an online submission form, when you request a trial or when you subscribe to our platform.

Thunder Said Energy will use this information for the purposes for which it was collected.

Thunder Said Energy does not share any personal data with any third parties.

Our platform uses several ‘plug ins’ and ‘cookies’ which are described in more detail below, including Google Analytics.

3. Purpose of Personal Information

We may use your personal information for operational, legal, administrative, and other legitimate purposes permitted by applicable laws. This may include:

Providing you with requested emails, products and services.
Providing you with information regarding our company.
Monitoring your use of our platform.
Providing customized information to you.
Confirming or invoicing purchases of our products.
For information verification purposes.
4. Access Rights and Ensuring Accuracy

We endeavour to ensure personal information is reliable, accurate, and up-to-date.

You may access your personal information, to update, and correct inaccuracies by email request (as long as your account is active).

You may limit the use and disclosure of your information by unsubscribing from marketing communications or contacting us at [email protected]

Some information may remain in our records even after you request deletion of your information, for example, if required by relevant legal authorities.

There may be limits to the amount of information we can practically provide about personal information that we store, due to cost, or others’ privacy rights.

5. Sharing Personal Information

We do not expect to work with any service providers that will handle our clients’ personal data. If we did work with any such service providers in the future, we would require them to treat personal information as confidential, and not for their own marketing purposes.

Our email distribution is handled by a third-party marketing platform, one of the largest and most secure providers in the industry. As a subscriber to our content, your email address may be associated with our subscription to this platform. It is not shared with any other users of the platform. It is secured using strong passwords and two-factor authentification.

There could be instances when we disclose your personal information without providing you with a choice, in order to comply with the law or in response to a court order, government request, or other legal process; to protect the interests, rights or safety of Thunder Said Energy or others; or respond to adverse third parties in the context of litigation. But we consider this unlikely.

Should Thunder Said Energy establish future subsidiaries or affiliate companies in the future, controlled by the management of Thunder Said Energy, then we may disclose personal information “internally” to these subsidiaries or affiliate companies.

Generally, we will not transfer personal data to third parties of affiliates where Thunder Said Energy’s management team does not control it.

If Thunder Said Energy sells all or part of its business, or is involved in a merger, you agree that we may transfer your personal information as part of that transaction.

If you provide comments on Thunder Said Energy on a social media or other public platform, you should be aware that the information provided there will be broadly available to others to see, and could be used to contact you. We are not responsible for any information you choose to submit on these forums or their consequences.

6. Security of Personal Information

We take reasonable and appropriate steps to ensure the security of your personal information. Physical, administrative, and technical safeguards are in place to help protect personal information.

7. Retention of Personal Information

We will retain your personal information as needed to fulfill the purposes for which it was collected, and to comply with our business requirements.

Typically, we will retain your name and contact details for the duration of our relationship with you, as a client or prospective client of Thunder Said Energy. Any data collected for analytics purposes is retained for a shorter time, while we are carrying out the relevant analytics.

8. Cookies

A cookie is a text file, created when your browser visits a particular website. Every time you visit our website, your browser queries for and retrieves any cookies that have previously been set. Cookies should enhance the user’s website experience, including authentication, storing your preference and personalizing the website’s appearance.

The cookies Thunder Said Energy collects may include the following: a unique identifier, user preferences, and profile information used to personalize the content shown.

For example, if you are a subscription client of Thunder Said Energy’s research, then your browser may store a cookie so that you can download our research reports and/or data-files with “one click”.

As far as Thunder Said Energy is aware, all cookies used on its website are industry-standard, such as those used by Google Analytics, Stripe, Easy Digital Downloads; and we have not knowingly added any specific cookies of our own.

We may collect the physical location of your device, with your consent, for purposes consistent with this Privacy Policy.

Some web browsers permit you to broadcast a preference that you not be “tracked” online. We do not actively modify your experience based upon such a signal.

We do not participate in interest based advertising. There is no third-party advertising on our website. And we will never target you with particular marketing campaigns based on information collected via cookies.



9. Cross Border Transfer of Personal Information

Thunder Said Energy aims to minimise the the cross-border transfer of personal information. However, our company is based in the United States of America (USA), with employees based in Europe and the United Kingdom. If you enter personal information into our website, then you agree for the information to be transferred to servers in the USA and seen by employees in Europea and the United Kingdom..

By using our website, or providing any personal information to us, you consent to the transfer, processing, and storage or such information outside of your country of residence.

10. Prospective Employees and Employee Information

If you submit an application for employment to Thunder Said Energy, we may collect and store any relevant information you disclose to us in your application.

Information on employees or prospective employees (“Employee Information”) will be used for legitimate business purposes, to evaluate applications, manage the employee-employer relationship and comply with applicable laws and regulations.

We may disclose your Employee Information if required or permitted to do so by law (such as when part of a governmental agency action or litigation), governmental or quasi-governmental requests, or a regulatory organization, or to relevant third parties such as site technicians, auditors, lawyers, or professional advisors.

We will not intentionally communicate or make available to the general public in any manner, employees’ sensitive details, such as social security numbers.

We may share Employee Information with third parties who provide outsourced human resource functions. Those third parties will be required to protect Employee Information.

11. EU General Data Protection Regulation

The Thunder Said Energy Policy for the Processing of Data Governed by GDPR addresses our commitment to the processing of personal data under the EU General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679.

If you are located in the European Economic Area (“EEA”) or Switzerland, you have the rights to request the following:

To request confirmation of whether we process personal data relating to you
To request confirmation of what personal data we process relating to you
To request that we rectify or update any personal data relating to you that is inaccurate, incomplete or outdated.
To request that we erase your personal data ,or that we no longer have your consent to process your personal data
To request that we restrict the use of your personal data
You may contact us at [email protected] to exercise any of these rights described above. You also have the right to lodge a complaint with your country’s data protection supervisory authority.

12. Other Contractual Relationships

If you enter into a separate contractual relationship us, which requires collecting, using, or sharing information about you in a different manner than described in this Privacy Policy, the terms of that agreement will apply.

13. Other Websites

This Privacy Policy does not apply to sites or services offered by other companies or third parties, that may be displayed as content or linked on our website.

14. Contact Information

If you have any questions or concerns related to this Privacy Policy, please contact the us at [email protected]

Updated 24th January 2020.

Thunder Said Energy Policy for the Processing of Data Governed by GDPR

Thunder Said Energy may collect, process or handle Personal Data relating to its customers or prospective customers (“customers”) in the European Economic Area (“Personal Data”).

Thunder Said Energy’s relationship with its customers is governed by our terms of use (above), privacy policy (above), and potentially other commercial agreements. It is also legally bound under the EU General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679 (“GDPR”) in its collection, uses, and processes around Personal Data.

This Policy describes Thunder Said Energy’s commitment to the processing of Personal Data under the GDPR.

Please contact [email protected] if you would like an executed version of this Policy, or for answers to any GDPR queries arising from thie policy.

1. Appropriate Technical and Organizational Measures. When Thunder Said Energy processes Personal Data on behalf of a customer, appropriate technical and organizational measures satisfy the requirements of GDPR, to ensure the security of Personal Data is appropriate to the level of risk, and to help ensure protection of the rights of the data subject.

2. Subprocessing. Thunder Said Energy does not currently work with any subprocessors. If we were to do so in the future, subprocessors would be required to provide at least the same level of protection as is described in this Policy. Thunder Said Energy would remain liable to its customers for any actions by its subprocessors that impact any rights guaranteed under the GDPR.

3. Written Instructions. Thunder Said Energy only processes Personal Data in accordance with the terms set out in this Policy, its Privacy Policy (above) and other written terms agreed with its subscribing customer. These documents set out the subject-matter, duration, nature, purpose, types of Personal Data, categories, obligations and rights relating to such Personal Data.

4. Transfers to non-EEA Countries. Most of the Personal Data collected by Thunder Said Energy will be collected via its US-website. Where Personal Data are disclosd Thunder Said employees in the EEA, they may be transferred to Thunder Said Energy’s offices and employees. Every effort will be made to ensure the transfer is fully secure. Personal data is not expected to be transmitted to other destinations, beyond the United States, UK and EEA.

5. Confidentiality. Thunder Said Energy requires that its employees process Personal Data under appropriate obligations of confidentiality.

6. Cooperation Concerning Data Subjects. Thunder Said Energy cooperates with reasonable requests of its customers (at the customer’s reasonable expense) to help them fulfill their obligations under GDPR to respond to requests by data subjects to access, modify, rectify, or remove their Personal Data.

7. Cooperation Concerning Customer Documentation. Thunder Said Energy cooperates with the reasonable requests of its customers to provide information necessary to demonstrate compliance with this Policy and the GDPR, or to conduct audits of the Personal Data it holds that was received from the customer. Audits may only occur once per calendar year, and during normal business hours. Audits will only occur after reasonable notice (not less than 30 business days). Audits will be conducted by customer or an appropriate independent auditor appointed (not by a competitor). Audits may not have any adverse impact on Thunder Said Energy’s normal business operations. Auditors shall not have access to any proprietary or third party information or data. Any records, data or information accessed by the Company and/or its representatives in the performance of any such audit will be deemed to be the confidential information of Thunder Said Energy, as applicable, and may be used for no other reason than to assess compliance with the terms of this Policy. Thunder Said Energy shall be entitled to charge the Customer USD500 per hour for any hours of its employees’ time that is taken up in the audit.

8. Personal Data Breach. In the event of a Personal Data breach under GDPR, Thunder Said Energy will notify its applicable customers without undue delay after becoming aware of the breach. Such notification(s) may be delivered to an email address provided by Customer or by direct communication (for example, by phone call or in-person). The customer is responsible for ensuring any email address provided by them is current and valid. Thunder Said Energy will take reasonable steps to provide information reasonably required.

9. Deletion of Data. Thunder Said Energy will delete or return all Personal Data to a customer, following the termination of the customer’s relationship, unless it is required to retain it by applicable laws and compliance policies. Thunder Said Energy reserves the right to charge a reasonable fee to comply with any customer’s request to return Personal Data.

10. Governing Law. This Policy shall be governed by the governing law (and subject to the jurisdiction(s)) of the relevant Agreement and otherwise subject to the limitations and remedies expressly set out in the Agreement.
If you have any queries about this Policy please contact [email protected]
=