Oil markets look more balanced than at any time in the past 5-years, suggesting prices will most likely move sideways. 2022 is seen -0.3Mbpd under-supplied. There is also an equal one-third chance of a surprise to both the upside and the downside, per our Monte Carlo analysis. Maintaining balance to 2025 is also possible, as long as prices can support +1.6Mbpd pa of shale growth. But generally we expect greater under-supply ahead in other commodities linked to the energy transition.
The full modelling behind this 4-page note is available here.