2020 Oil Markets: Bounding the Uncertainty

Our oil price outlook is informed by a 45-line supply-demand model, running month-by-month out to 2025. This download contains both the model, and a 4-page summary of our outlook.

2020 markets are almost balanced, a remarkable re-calibration, illustrating a trend to cut “unwanted” barrels in a structurally oversupplied market. The trend may continue, otherwise over-supply will build up again in 2021+.

After ten years forecasting oil markets, our humble conclusion is that all oil models are wrong. Some are nevertheless useful. To be most useful, our model takes a Monte Carlo approach to the key uncertainties, to quantify the “risk” of positive and negative surprises (illustrative example below).

Please download the full model to see, and to flex our input assumptions. Included with the download is a PDF summary of our oil price thesis, plus country-by-country notes, which inform our longer-term forecasts.