2020 Oil Markets: Bounding the Uncertainty

Our oil price outlook is informed by a 45-line supply-demand model, running month-by-month out to 2025. This download contains both the model, and a 3-page summary of our outlook.

Since 2Q19, our estimates of oil market over-supply have effectively halved. But we still think an oil rout may be needed in 2020, to alleviate an overhang that otherwise stretches out to 2025 (chart below).

After ten years forecasting oil markets, our humble conclusion is that all oil models are wrong. Some are nevertheless useful. To be most useful, our model takes a Monte Carlo approach to the key uncertainties, to quantify the “risk” of positive and negative surprises…

Please download the full model to see, and to flex all our input assumptions Included with the download is a summary of our oil price thesis, plus country-by-country notes, which inform our longer-term forecasts.