We have modeled the global climate system from 1750-2065, to simplify the climate-science of the energy transition into an easily understandable format.
‘Net zero’ is achievable by 2050, with atmospheric CO2 remaining below 450ppm, the level consistent with 2-degrees C of warming, of which 1.2C has already occurred.
Fossil fuel use is 10% higher than today, but the industry has transformed itself, towards the most efficient, lowest-carbon fossil fuels (especially natural gas), with the remaining CO2 captured or offset. This is the most economical route to an energy transition, per all of our research.
Please download the model to stress-test your own input assumptions. Notes from Academic papers follow in the ‘Sources’ tab, drawn largely from the IPCC, to explain the ocean, soil and plant fluxes in our model.