Oil markets: the aftermath?

Oil and gas pricing could rebound sharply to the upside after the COVID crisis. Where we have long feared 2-3Mbpd of structural over-supply, continuing out to 2025, our new models suggest an 85% chance of under-supplied markets from mid-2021 onwards, following the loss of 4.5Mbpd of shale growth and c3Mbpd of greenfield growth. This 4-page note argues it is not impossible for oil prices to surpass $100/bbl in the aftermath of COVID.