China coal production costs are estimated on a full-cycle basis in this data-file, averaging $65/ton across large, listed miners, with assets in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, and 1.5-2x higher again for smaller regional prices. The costs had been increasing at $1.3/ton/year through 2023, but moderated in 2024-25. But could marginal Chinese coal prices hit LNG price parity around 2030?
This data-file estimates the full-cycle costs of Chinese coal production, by aggregating the public market disclosures of China Shenhua Energy, China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal, all three of which are listed in both Hong Kong and Shanghai.
Specifically, to calculate full-cycle costs, we have aggregated unit costs reported by each company. On top of this, we require a 10% ROA on coal mining segment assets, as our way of reflecting capital costs. A 25% income tax rate on this economic return is also added. And we have added in relevant transport and G&A costs. These numbers can be compared and contrasted with our coal mining economic model.
China coal production costs comprise c$20/ton of capital costs, c$10/ton for labor, $10/ton for transportation to Eastern markets, $5-10/ton for each of past capex depreciation, washing/processing at the surface, income taxes, energy/materials; with smaller charges for maintenance, mining rights, G&A and compensation for subsidence, remediation works or other environmental line items. Data are aggregated in the file, with a separate tab for each company.
The average full-cycle cost for these large producers was $75/ton in 2021-23. Costs had generally been rising, at an average implied rate of $1.3/ton/year, as the industry moves into deeper resources and thinner seams. We think that the costs of smaller regional miners can be 50-100% higher again, for the marginal cost of Chinese coal. However, prices moderated back to $65/ton in 2024 and 2025.
These numbers are crucial to calibrating our cost curves and inform our 2025-30 global energy supply-demand model, 1700-2050 supply-demand model, China energy model, global electricity supply-demand models, coal supply-demand models, solar supply-demand models and gas supply-demand models.