China Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions, 2000-2060

This is a model of China‘s total energy demand and CO2 emissions, from 2000-2060, disaggregated across c200 lines. The aim is to stress test future emissions pathways for China as a function of 20 input variables.

Compared to 2019’s baseline of 10GTpa emissions, there are credible pathways ranging from complete decarbonization through to 25GTpa of total emissions in 2060. Which scenario unfolds seems to depend more upon future consumption habits in China than on policy.

In our base case scenario, China’s total useful energy demand rises 2.5x by 2050. But CO2 emissions remain flattish. Gas demand rises 10x to displace coal. Wind and solar reach 40% of the final electricity grid. Please download the data-file to flex input assumptions.