This data-file breaks down US gasoline demand, as a function of vehicle miles traveled (urban and rural), GDP growth, gasoline prices and fuel economy across the US vehicle fleet. It contains monthly data on each variable, going back to 2002, so correlations can be explored.
Gasoline demand is stalling in 2019, down -0.4% YoY versus a prior 15-year trend for 0.4% pa growth.
The cause is urban vehicle miles driven, where growth has slowed by 1.4pp, defying historical correlations with GDP (strong) and gasoline prices (reasonable). Structural explanations could include the rapid rise of alternative vehicles (e.g., e-scooters), ride-sharing and policy decisions.
Please download the file to view the data or test your own regressions.