This data-file screens c35 next-generation nuclear companies at the cutting edge of fission and fusion technology. The median one employs 100 people, is developing a 150MWe reactor, and could reach commerciality by 2035. But how has this landscape of companies progressed in the past few years?
Next-gen nuclear is in many ways the perfect way to power continued electrification in the energy transition, and especially AI data-centers, with round-the-clock, zero-carbon electricity at 7-15 c/kWh. But are we any closer to commercialization?
This data-file tracks the progress of 35 next-generation nuclear companies. The median one employs 100 people, is developing a 150MWe reactor, and could reach commerciality by 2035.
Enthusiasm is clearly building, in the 2024/25 news flow. We estimate the space has attracted around $10bn of new investment over the past year, five new companies entered our screen, and half-a-dozen of the companies are directly linked to AI data center operators.
However, it is still hard to de-risk any material next-gen nuclear generation before 2030. In the past 12-months, 23% of the companies in our screen incurred significant delays in their proposed timelines and 6% went bust.
In the prior 2-years, another 6 companies (i.e., 20%) saw delays or setbacks, especially those that had previously seemed closer to commercialization: e.g., NuScale‘s Utah cancellation and defects in ITER‘s thermal shields. 5 companies also shut down (15%), while 4 new companies were added to screen, for a 15% churn rate.
The best case scenario could see fusion reactors commercialized in the 2030s, but technical challenges remain. The pace of progress is, however, accelerating slowly (chart below).
This is all typical of new technology development. Next-gen nuclear is exciting. Our nuclear outlook does expect nuclear generation to double by 2050. But most AI data-centers before 2030 will most likely be gas-fired.
This database summarises each next-gen nuclear company, including its technology, location, employee count, notable backers, technical readiness, earliest potential commercial date and recent milestones. Our notes also cover SMRs (below), expected costs or technical details that have been disclosed.
