Industry Research - Thunder Said Energy

Human civilization will consume 80,000 TWH of useful energy in 2023. This is equivalent to a kitchen toaster, running 24 hours per day, 365 days per year, for every man, woman and child on the planet. 35% of global energy is used in manufacturing and materials, 30% is used in transportation and shipping, 20% is used in homes as heat and electricity, and 15% is used in providing commercial services. Our industry research and energy demand research focuses upon opportunities to drive the energy transition. This includes improving efficiency, lowering CO2 intensity, greater digitization, and supply chains for crucial metals and materials.

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Global energy: supply-demand model?

This global energy supply-demand model combines our supply outlooks for coal, oil, gas, LNG, wind and solar, nuclear and hydro, into a build-up of useful global energy balances in 2022-30. We fear chronic under-supply. This is masked by economic weakness in 2023, rises to 3% shortages in 2025, and 5% shortages in 2030. Numbers can be stress-tested in the model.
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What is the energy consumption of the internet?

Powering the internet consumed 800 TWH of electricity in 2022, as 5bn users generated 4.7 Zettabytes of traffic. Our guess is that the internet’s energy demands double by 2030, including due to AI (e.g., ChatGPT), adding 1% upside to global energy and 2.5% to global electricity demand. This 13-page note aims to break down the numbers and their implications.
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Internet energy consumption: data, models, forecasts?

This data-file aims to provide helpful numbers into the energy consumption of the internet (800TWH in 2022), the energy intensity of end-to-end internet processes (140Wh/GB of ultimate traffic) and projections of future internet energy demand (doubling by 2030?). Input assumptions to the model can be flexed. Underlying data are from technical papers.
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Global oil demand: breakdown by product by country?

This data-file breaks down global oil demand, country-by-country, product-by-product, month-by-month, across 2017-2022. The goal is to summarize the effects of COVID, and the subsequent recovery in oil markets. Global oil demand is hitting new highs, even though several product categories are still not fully recovered.
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Global energy demand: by region and through 2050?

This model captures global energy demand by region through 2050, rising from 70,000 TWH in 2019-22 to 120,000 MWH in 2050. Demand rises c2% pa. Energy use per global person rises at 1% pa from 9.3 MWH pp pa to 12.6 MWH pp pa. Meeting human civilization's energy needs is crucial to the energy transition.
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CO2 compression: stranger things?

CO2 is a strange gas. This matters as energy transition will require over 120 GW of compressors for 6GTpa of CCUS. This 13-page notes explains CO2’s strange properties, which helps to fine-tune appropriate risking factors for vanilla CCS, blue hydrogen, CO2-EOR, CO2 shipping, super-critical CO2 power cycles. There is also a wide moat around leading turbomachinery companies.
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How accurate are energy demand forecasts?

Energy demand: making predictions about the future?

How accurate are predictions about future global energy demand? The error of the estimate for forecasting oil demand has run at 0.6% per year. Challenges of predicting future energy demand are an argument for targeting ample spare capacity in the global energy system.
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Energy shortage: fear in a handful of dust?

Should restoring the world’s energy surplus be seen as the most important ESG goal of the 2020s? This 12-page note outlines our top ten considerations, as our energy balances have deteriorated even further in the last year. Under-supply could persist through 2030. Shortages have cruel consequences. And unexpected ripple effects. Energy surplus also helps energy transition.
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Heating-melting: how much energy is needed?

How do we quantify the minimum energy needed to heat materials and melt materials? This data-file calculates values, in kWh/ton, from first principles, based on target temperatures, specific heat capacities and latent heat capacities. A good rule of thumb is 25 kWh of useful energy to heat each ton of material by each 100ºC.
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Power grids: global investment?

Global investment into power networks averaged $280bn per annum in 2015-20, of which two-thirds was for distribution and one-third was for transmission. Amazingly, these numbers step up to $600bn in 2030, >$1trn in the 2040s and can be as large as all primary energy investment.
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Displacing industrial gas demand in Europe

Gas diffusion: how will record prices resolve?

Dispersion in global gas prices has hit new highs in 2022. Hence this 17-page note evaluates two possible solutions. Building more LNG plants achieves 15-20% IRRs. But shuttering some of Europe’s gas-consuming industry then re-locating it in gas-rich countries can achieve 20-40% IRRs, lower net CO2 and lower risk? Both solutions should step up. What implications?
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Mining: crushing, grinding and comminution costs?

Mining crushing-grinding costs are typically $10/ton of ore, breaking 3-10cm rubble into 30-100 micron powders. Capex averages $20/Tpa and energy cost averages 20kWh/ton.
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Air conditioning: energy demand sensitivity?

This data-file quantifies air conditioning energy demand. In the US each 100 variation in CDDs adds 26 TWH of electricity (0.6%) demand and 200bcf of gas (0.6%). Air conditioning already consumes 7% of all global electricity and could treble by 2050.
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Global oil demand: rumors of my death?

‘Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated’. Mark Twain’s quote also applies to global oil consumption. This note aggregates demand data for 8 oil products and 120 countries over the COVID pandemic. We see 3.5Mbpd of pent-up demand ‘upside’, acting as a floor on medium-term oil prices.
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Oil demand: how much can you save in a crisis?

Oil consuming countries are encouraged to have emergency plans to save 7-10% of their demand in a crisis. This data-file outlines how. c10Mbpd could be saved globally. But it requires extreme measures. Largest are odd-even rationing, ride-sharing, free public transit and lower highway speed limits.
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Energy transition: the world turned upside down?

Energy shortages are now the second largest problem in the world. Hence this 14-page note evaluates short- and medium-term options to alleviate them. Despite a lot of posturing, we see 'new energies' slowing down in 2022-23. The world is upside down and somehow coal is going to be an unexpected savior.
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Auto manufacturing: the economics?

This is a simple model, to break down the $30k sales price of a typical mass-market automobile. c25% accrues to suppliers, c20% is sales taxes, c20% is dealer costs/logistics, c10% employees, c10% material inputs, c10% O&M, 1% electricity and c5% auto-maker margins. Prices may inflate 60% amidst industrial shortages.
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Russia's conflict implications in energy markets

Russia conflict: pain and suffering?

This 13-page note presents 10 hypotheses on Russia's horrific conflict. Energy supplies will very likely get disrupted, as Putin no longer needs to break the will of Ukraine, but also the West. Results include energy rationing and economic pain. Climate goals get shelved during the war-time scramble. Pragmatism, nuclear and LNG emerge from the ashes.
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Energy shortages in low income countries

Energy shortages: priced out of the world?

Deepening energy shortages in 2022-30 could devastate low-income countries, geopolitically isolate the West, and de-rail decarbonization. This 13-page note evaluates the linkage between energy consumption and income over the past half century, to quantifies what a 'just transition' would look like.
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Energy intensity by country: how does it change as income increases?

This data-file assesses 25 countries' and regions' energy consumption, as those countries developed over the past 50-years. Early industrialization is most energy intensive, rising 1:1 with GDP growth. In developed countries, energy use plateaus at c25MWH pp pa and decarbonization priorities step up sharply.
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Falling towers: how will energy shortages play out?

If global energy supplies run short, then someone has to curtail demand. Europe is in the firing line, with 7% of the world’s people, using 17% of its energy, of which 65% is imported. So this 13-page note searches for the least bad options to cut European energy demand. Energy intensive industries may shutter and never return.
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European energy use: by industry, by fuel, by country?

Europe comprises 7% of the world's population, and 17% of its energy use. The purpose of this data-file is to disaggregate energy use across 25 industries, six energy types and 28 countries. This suggests which industries might be least painful to scale back amidst energy shortages.
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CO2 emissions per hour of activity?

The purpose of this data-file is to tabulate our best estimates for the CO2 associated with different activities. The average US person emits about 2.2kg of CO2e per hour. Food and transport choices have a large impact. Among the lowest carbon is reading at home on a tablet.
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Energy crises: an overview from history?

This data-file reviews a dozen energy crisis, caused by shortages of coal, oil, gas or electricity, from twentieth century history. Especially the 1973-74 oil shock. The average crisis co-occurs with a 2.3x rise in the commodity price, energy rationing, inflation and economic deterioration.
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Rocket fuels: an overview?

This data-file profiles five rocket fuels, based on data from 100 rockets: kerosene, hydrogen, solid fuels, nitrogen tetroxides and an exciting new-comer, LNG. Notably, SpaceX and Blue Origin are tilting away from hydrogen/kerosene and towards LNG.
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Compressors: a simple overview?

This data-file aims to give a helpful, basic overview of the $40bn pa compressor market, between centrifugal, reciprocating and screw compressors. A typical industrial unit is 50kW and costs $850/kW on an installed basis. Companies and efficiency calculations are also given.
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US CO2 emissions by industrial facility size?

This data-file has aggregated CO2 emissions from 2,500 US industrial facilities. Many coal plants may be 'too large' for CCS. Most ethanol plants are 'too small'. But 100 facilities in cement, steel and ammonia are 'right sized' and explain 2% of all US CO2 emissions.
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End game: options to cure energy shortages?

This note considers five options to cure emerging gas and power shortages. Unfortunately, the options are mostly absurd. They point to inflation, industrial leakage and slipping global climate goals. But also opportunities in LNG, nuclear and efficiency technologies.
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Industrial energy and electricity consumption by sector?

The average factory consumes 9GWH of energy per year, of which 5GWH is thermal heat and 4GWH is electricity. Of the electricity c50% is for rotating machinery, c10% for electric heat, c10% for process cooling, c7% for electrochemical processes, c10% for facility HVAC and c6% for lighting.
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Commercial aviation: air travel economics?

This data-file estimates the economics of a passenger jet, over the course of its life: i.e., what ticket price must be charged to earn a 10% IRR after covering the capex costs of the plane, fuel costs, crew, maintenance and airport and air traffic charges. Decarbonization is challenging.
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Container freight: shipping economics?

This data-file models the total costs of shipping a container c10,000 nautical miles from China to the West, in a 20,000 TEU vessel. Emerging fuels can lower the CO2 intensity of shipping from their baseline of 0.15kg/TEU-mile, by 60-90%, but freight costs inflate by 30%-3x.
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Border taxes: a carbon curtain has descended?

Europe has proposed a ‘border adjustment mechanism’ to mitigate carbon leakage. Its initial formulation is modest. But it will snowball. And ultimately divide the global economy in two. This 15-page report lays out our top five predictions for CO2 border taxes to reshape energy markets and the world.
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Carbon leakage: China versus the West, 1999-2019

The purpose of this data-file is to assess how 'industrial activity' has changed, in China and in the West (US and Europe), from 1999-2019, as a proxy for 'carbon leakage'. We find heavier industrial activity is down 12% in the West over this 20-year period, and up 6.5x in China.
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Gas turbines: what market size in energy transition?

CHP systems are 20-30% lower-carbon than gas turbines, as they capture waste heat. They are also increasingly economical to backstop renewables. Amidst uncertain policies, the market size for US CHPs could vary by a factor of 100x. We nevertheless find 30 companies well-placed in a $9trn global market.
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Blockchain: why so energy intensive?

A single Bitcoin transaction currently uses c1,000kWh of electricity, 1 million times more than a traditional payment. Hence this note aims to explain how blockchain works, why it has been so energy intensive in the past, and how the energy multiplier could be reduced to maybe 100 - 1,000x.
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Power capacity of a typical home?

A typical home in the developed world currently has a 10kW maximum power capacity before tripping its circuit-breaker (although it varies). This could easily double in the energy transition, due to phasing back gas heating, gas cooking and the addition of home charging stations for electric vehicles.
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US industrial furnaces: breakdown by size, by industry, by fuel?

There are 1,500 industrial furnaces in the US manufacturing sector, with average capacity of 60MWth, c90% powered by natural gas, and thus explaining over 3.5 bcfd of US gas demand (4-5% of total). This is an unbelievably complex landscape, but we have captured as much facility-by-facility data as possible.
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Data-centers: electricity use and demand shifting?

We estimate data-centers comprise 2% of global electricity and will likely rise to at least 5% by 2030. Around 40% of data-center energy demand can likely be demand-shifted, of which two-thirds is temporal and one-third is geographical. This permits another 1-2% potential share for renewables in the grid.
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Long-Run Oil Demand Model

Our model calculates long-run oil demand to 2050, end-use by end-use, year-by-year, region-by-region across the US, the OECD and the non-OECD; as a function of 25 input variables, which you can flex. It also reflects our modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our own scenario sees a plateau at c103Mbpd in the 2020s.
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Cryogenic air separation: costs and energy economics?

This data-file calculates the costs of cryogenic air separation units, which are important in the production of industrial gases, ammonia, metals, materials, medical applications and new energy technologies such as blue hydrogen. Good base cases are $100/ton oxygen, $20/ton nitrogen, $200/Tpa capex and 60kWh/ton of electricity (on an input air basis).
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Carbon Intensity

CO2 intensity of materials: an overview?

This data-file tabulates the energy intensity and CO2 intensity of materials, in tons/ton of CO2, kWh/ton of electricity and kWh/ton of total energy use per ton of material. The build-ups are based on 160 economic models that we have constructed to date, and simply intended as a helpful summary reference. Our key conclusions on CO2 intensity of materials are below.
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Energy intensity of fiber optic cables?

What is the energy intensity of fiber optic cables? Our best estimate is that moving each GB of internet traffic through the fixed network requires 40Wh/GB of energy, across 20 hops, spanning 800km and requiring an average of 0.05 Wh/GB/km. Generally, long-distance transmission is 1-2 orders of magnitude more energy efficient than short-distance.
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US CO2 and Methane Intensity by Basin

The CO2 intensity of oil and gas production is tabulated for 425 distinct company positions across 12 distinct US onshore basins in this data-file. Using the data, we can aggregate the total upstream CO2 intensity in (kg/boe), methane leakage rates (%) and flaring intensity (in mcf/boe), by company, by basin and across the US Lower 48.
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Refrigerants: leading chemicals for the rise of heat pumps?

This data-file is a breakdown of c1MTpa of refrigerants used in the recent past for cooling, across refrigerators, air conditioners, in vehicles, industrial chillers, and increasingly, heat pumps. The market is shifting rapidly towards lower-carbon products, including HFOs, propane, iso-butane and even CO2 itself. We still see fluorinated chemicals markets tightening.
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Solar: energy payback and embedded energy?

What is the energy payback and embedded energy of solar? We have aggregated the consumption of 10 different materials (in kg/kW) and around 10 other energy-consuming line-items (in kWh/kW). Our base case estimate is 2.5 MWH/kWe of solar and an energy payback of 1.5-years. Numbers and sensitivities can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Crop production: how much does nitrogen fertilizer increase yields?

How much does fertilizer increase crop yields? Aggregating all of the global data, a good rule of thumb is that up to 200kg of nitrogen can be applied per acre, increasing corn crop yields from 60 bushels per acre (with no fertilizer) to 160 bushels per acre (at 200 kg/acre). But the relationship is logarithmic, with diminishing returns.
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Coal grades: what CO2 intensity?

The CO2 intensity of coal is estimated at 0.37kg/kWh of thermal energy, at a typical coal grade comprising 63% carbon and 6,250 kWh/ton of energy content. This is the average across 25 samples in our data-file, while moisture, ash and sulphur are also appraised. Coal is 2x more CO2 intensive than natural gas.
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Crop production: what CO2 intensity?

The CO2 intensity of producing corn averages 0.23 tons/ton, or 75kg/boe. 50% is from N2O emissions, a powerful greenhouse gas, from the breakdown of nitrogen fertilizer. Producing 1 kWh of food energy requires 9 kWh of fossil energy.
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Scope 4 emissions of different energy sources

CO2 intensity: Scope 1, 2 & 3 and Scope 4 emissions?

Scope 4 CO2 emissions capture the CO2 that is avoided by use of a product. Many energy investments with positive Scope 1-3 emissions have deeply negative Scope 1-4 emissions. Numbers are quantified and may offer a more constructive approach to decarbonization investments.
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Palm oil: what CO2 intensity?

Global palm oil production runs at 80MTpa, for food, HPC and bio-fuels. Carbon intensity is 1.2 tons CO2e per ton of crude palm oil, excluding land use impacts, and 8.0 tons/ton on a global basis including land use impacts. This means once a bio-fuel has more than c35% palm oil in its feedstock, it is likely to be higher carbon than conventional diesel.
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CO2 intensity of wood: context by context?

This data-file calculates the CO2 intensity of wood in the energy transition. Context matters, and can sway the net climate impacts from -2 tons of emissions reductions per ton of wood through to +2 tons of incremental emissions per ton of wood. Calculations can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Decarbonization targets: what do the data tell us?

630 companies have now pledged to reach some variant of net zero by early-2022. The average year for this ambition is 2044. Although it varies by sector. 50% of companies are including some Scope 3 emissions in their definitions. This data-file presents our conclusions by sector.
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US industrial furnaces: breakdown by size, by industry, by fuel?

CO2 capture: a cost curve?

This data-file summarizes the costs of capturing CO2. The lowest-cost options are to access pure CO2 streams that are simply being vented at present. Next are blue hydrogen, steel and cement, which could each have GTpa scale. Power stations place next, at $60-100/ton. DAC is carbon negative but expensive.
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Energy efficiency and costs of cooking technologies

Cost and CO2 intensity of home cooking technologies?

The most important determinant of cooking's CO2 intensity is consumer behaviour. At today's energy costs and grid mix, gas-fired cooking yields the lowest costs. Sometimes electrification of cooking will decrease CO2 and sometimes not. Electric induction is most efficient, but 2-3x more expensive than gas and electric hobs.
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Industrial heat overview of temperatures and efficiency

Industrial heating technologies: an overview?

This data-file summarizes over a dozen industrial heating technologies, including their temperatures, efficiency, advantages and challenges. Generally 90% of incoming energy can be converted to industrial process heat and c40% achieves useful exergetic output. But ranges very broadly from 10-90%.
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Energy and CO2 costs of construction materials

Construction materials: a screen of costs and CO2 intensities?

This data-file calculates the costs, the embedded energy and the embedded CO2 of different construction materials, both during their production and for ongoing heating and cooling. Insulated wood and cross-laminated timber have the lowest CO2 intensities and can be extremely cost competitive.
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Which refiners have the lowest co2 intensity

US Refiners: CO2 cost curve?

Which refiners have the lowest, and the highest CO2 emissions? To assess this, we have aggregated data on 130 US refineries, from EPA regulatory disclosures. The average US refinery emitted 32kg of CO2 per bbl of throughputs in 2019. Leading companies screen >10% better than average. Others fare 20-50% worse.
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Blue carbon: how much degradation and CO2 emission?

This data-file illustrates the outsized contribution of blue carbon ecosystems in the carbon cycle, looking across mangroves, tidal marshes, sea grasses and peat bogs. Degradation of blue carbon ecosystems continues with vast CO2 consequences, comparable to the entire global cement industry.
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CO2 concentrations in industrial exhaust streams?

The aim of this data-file is to compile CO2 concentrations in industrial exhaust streams, as a molar percentage of flue gas. This matters for the costs of CO2 separation. Most promising CCS candidates are bio-ethanol plants, industrial hydrogen production and some gas processing, followed by cement and steel plants.
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A breakdown of US energy consumption per person per year

The average American consumes 36MWH of energy each year, emits 20 tons of CO2, spends $2,000 directly on energy (6% of income) and $4,500 including the energy embedded in goods and services (15% of income). A CO2 price of $75/ton may fully decarbonize the US but would absorb another 5% of average income.
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Gas Pipelines: how much energy, CO2 and methane leaks?

This file aggregates data for 40 major US gas pipelines which transport 45TCF of gas each year over 185,000 miles; and for 3,200 compressors at 640 related compressor stations. Hence, we can calculate the CO2 intensity (in kg/mcf-mile) and methane leak rates (in %) for different midstream companies and the overall US gas industry.
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CO2 of metal components: conventional vs additive manufacturing?

Manufacturing metal components can be extremely energy intensive, as 60-95% of original materials are often machined away. Additive manufacturing is thus able to deliver c65% CO2 savings per kg of materials in our base case. This data-file quantifies the CO2 savings based on input variables and technical papers.
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CO2-Cured Concrete: Solidia vs traditional cement?

CO2-cured concrete has c60% lower emissions than traditional concrete, which is the most widely used construction material on the planet, comprising 4bn tons of annual CO2 emissions, or 8% of the global total. This data-file profiles the CO2 and economic costs of Solidia versus traditional cement, to size the opportunity.
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US ethanol plants: what CO2 intensity?

US bioethanol plants produce 1Mbpd of liquid fuels, with an average CO2 intensity of 85kg/boe. Overall, corn-based bioethanol has c40% lower CO2 than oil products. We screened the leaders and laggards by CO2-intensity, covering Poet, Valero, Great Plains, Koch, Marathon and White Energy.
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Coal industry CO2 per ton

Producing a ton of coal typically emits 0.19T of CO2, equivalent to 50kg/boe. The numbers comprise mining, methane leaks and transportation. Hence domestic coal production will tend to emit 2x more CO2 than gas production, plus c2x more CO2 in combustion. However, numbers vary widely based on input assumptions, such as methane lakage rates, btu content and transportation distances, which can be flexed in the model.
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Methane emissions from pneumatic devices, by operator, by basin

Methane leaks from 1M pneumatic devices across the US onshore oil and gas industry comprise 50% of all US upstream methane leaks and 20% of upstream CO2. This file aggregates the data. Rankings reveal operators with a pressing priority to replace >100,000 medium and high bleed devices, and other best-in-class companies.
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CO2 from plastics and petrochemical facilities?

This data-file calculates the CO2 intensity of producing plastics, based on emissions data from over 20 US petrochemical facilities. We find plastic packaging should tend to be c90% lower-CO2 than glass. Efficiency is improved by larger, integrated crackers and petrochemical plants.
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Contribution of PSVs to oil industry CO2

Platform supply vessels: what contribution to CO2?

This data-file calculates the contribution of Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs) to an oil and gas asset's emissions. Our base case estimate is 0.1kg/boe for a productive asset in a well-developed basin. Numbers rise 4x in a remote basin, and by another c4x for smaller fields. 1kg/boe is possible. These emissions can be lowered by 10-20% through by LNG-fuelling or battery-hybridization.
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Oil Sands CO2 Intensity

This data-file quantifies the CO2 intensity of oil sands mining and SAGD, line by line, based on real-world data. We also derive a CO2 curve ranking c2.5Mbpd of production across Alberta, to compare different operators. Steam-oil-ratios explain c60% of the variance in SAGD assets' emissions.
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Methane Leaks from US Dowsntream Gas Distribution

Methane Leaks from Downstream Gas Distribution

Methane leakages average 0.2% when distributing natural gas to end-customers, across the US's 160 retail gas networks. Leakages are most correlated with the share of sales to smaller customers. 80 distinct gas companies are ranked in this data-file. State-owned utilities appear to have 2x higher leakage rates versus public companies.
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CO2 emissions from Permian shale production

This model disaggregates the CO2 emissions of producing shale oil, across 14 different contributors: such as materials, drilling, fracturing, supply chain, lifting, processing, methane leaks and flaring. CO2 intensity can be flexed by changing the input assumptions. Our 'idealized shale' scenario follows in a separate tab, showing how Permian shale production could become 'carbon neutral'.
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Impact of Methane on Natural Gas Emissions

Methane emissions detract from natural gas?

With methane emissions fully controlled, burning gas is c60% lower-CO2 than burning coal. However, taking natural gas to cause 120x more warming than CO2 over a short timeframe, the crossover (where coal emissions and gas emissions are equivalent) is 4% methane intensity. The gas industry must work to mitigate methane.
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Gas Gathering: how much CO2 and Methane?

Gas gathering and gas processing are 50% less CO2 intensive than oil refining. Nevertheless, these processes emitted 18kg of CO2e per boe in 2018. Methane matters most, explaining 7kg/boe of gas industry CO2-equivalents. This data-file assesses 850 US gas gathering and processing facilities, to screen for leaders and laggards, by geography and by operator.
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CO2 Intensity of Oilfield Supply Chains

What is more CO2-intensive: the c4,000 truck trips needed to complete a shale well, or giant offshore service vessels (OSVs), which each consume >100bpd of fuel? This data-file quantifies the CO2 intensity of supply-chains, for 10 different resource types, as a function of 30 input variables.
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Permian CO2 Emissions by Producer

This data-file tabulates Permian CO2 intensity, based on regulatory disclosures from 20 of the leading producers to the EPA. The data are disaggregated by company, across 18 different categories, such as combustion, flaring, venting, pneumatics, storage tanks and methane leaks. There are opportunities to lower emissions.
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CO2 Intensity of Drilling Oil Wells?

This data-file estimates the CO2 intensity of drilling oil wells, based on the fuel consumption of different rig types. Drilling wells is not the largest portion of the oil industry's total CO2 intensity. Nevertheless there is a 50x spread between the best barrels at prolific onshore fields and the worst barrels at mature deepwater assets.
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Carbon Costs of IMO 2020?

CO2 intensity of oil refineries could rise by 20% due to IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, if all high-sulphur fuel oil is upgraded into low-sulphur diesel, we estimate. The drivers are an extra stage of cracking, plus higher-temperature hydrotreating, which will also increase hydrogen demands. This one change could undo 30-years of efficiency gains.
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Refining energy and CO2 intensity over time

US Refining: energy and CO2 intensity

Emissions of refining a barrel of crude in the US has fallen at a 0.5% CAGR over the past c30-years, from 36kg/boe in 1986 to 31kg/boe in 2018. US refineries are also increasingly fueled by natural gas and merchant steam, while own use of oil, coal and oil products have been phased out.
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Development Concepts: how much CO2?

We tabulate c25 oil projects, breaking down the total tons of steel and concrete used in their topsides, jackets, hulls, wells, SURF and pipelines. Infill wells, tiebacks and FPSOs make the most CO2-efficient use of construction materials per barrel of production, helping to minimise emissions. Fixed leg platforms are higher CO2, then gravity based structures, then FLNG, and finally offshore wind.
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Energy Efficiency

EROEI: energy return on energy invested?

EROEI is the best metric for comparing end-to-end energy efficiencies. Wind and solar currently have EROEIs that are lower and ‘slower’ than today’s global energy mix; stoking upside to energy demand and capex. But future wind and solar EROEIs could improve 2-6x. This 13-page report explores whether this will be the make-or-break factor determining the ultimate share of renewables?
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Energy efficiency: a riddle, in a mystery, in an enigma?

Projections of future global energy demand depend on energy efficiency gains, which are hoped to step up from 1% per year since 1970, to above 3% per year to 2050. But there is a problem. Energy efficiency is vague. And hard to measure. This 17-page note explains why we are worried that global energy demand will surprise to the upside as efficiency gains disappoint optimistic forecasts.
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Prime movers: efficiency of power generation over time?

How has the efficiency of prime movers increased across industrial history? This data-file profiles the continued progress in the efficiency of power generation over time, from 1650 to 2050e. As a rule of thumb, the energy system has shifted to become ever more efficient over the past 400-years.
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Gas turbines: operating parameters?

A typical simple-cycle gas turbine is sized at 200MW, and achieves 38% efficiency, as super-heated gases at 1,250ºC temperature and 100-bar pressure expand and drive a turbine. Efficiency rises to 58% in a combined cycle. The purpose of this data-file is to tabulate typical operating parameters of gas turbines.
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Thermodynamics: Carnot, Rankine, Brayton & beyond?

Engines convert heat into work. They are governed by thermodynamics. This note is not a 1,000 page textbook. The goal is to explain different heat engines, simply, in 13-pages, covering what we think decision makers in the energy transition should know. The theory underpins the appeal of electrification, ultra-efficient gas turbines, CHPs, nuclear HTGRs and new super-critical CO2 power cycles.
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Refrigerants: leading chemicals for the rise of heat pumps?

Building automation: energy savings, KNX case studies and companies?

High-quality building automation typically saves 30-40% of the energy needed for lighting, heating and cooling a building. This matters amidst energy shortages, and reduces payback times on $100-500k up-front capex. This data-file aggregates case studies of KNX energy savings, and screens 70 companies, from Capital Goods giants to private pure-plays.
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Heap leaching: energy economics?

This data-file captures the energy economics of leaching in the mining industry, especially the costs of heap leaching, for the extraction of copper, nickel, gold, silver, other precious metals, uranium, and Rare Earths. The data-file allows you to stress test costs in $/ton of ore, $/ton of metal, capex, opex, chemicals costs, energy intensity and CO2 intensity.
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Energy efficiency: an overview?

This data-file is an overview of energy efficiency. The average power generation facility is c40% efficient. The average ICE is 20%. The average EV is 80%. The average industrial process is 85%. Some new energies have efficiency losses.
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PureCycle: polypropylene recycling breakthrough?

PureCycle was founded in 2015, went public via SPAC in 2021 and aims to recycle waste polypropylene into virgin-like polypropylene saving 79% of the usual input energy and 35% of the input CO2. Despite recent controversies, our PureCycle technology review is able to de-risk several ambitions.
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Aurubis: copper recycling breakthrough?

Aurubis produces copper products from 1MTpa of recycled materials and 2.25MTpa of concetrates. Energy use and CO2 emissions are two-thirds lower than primary copper production. Our technology review finds a partial moat.
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Recycling: a global overview of energy savings?

1GTpa of material is recycled globally, across steel, paper, glass, plastics and other metals. On average, 35% of these materials are produced from recycled feeds, saving 70% of the energy and CO2, with upside in the Energy Transition.
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Capacitor banks: raising power factors?

Power factor corrections could save 0.5% of global electricity, with $20/ton CO2 abatement costs in normal times, and 30% pure IRRs during energy shortages. They will also be needed to integrate more new energies into power grids. This note outlines the opportunity in capacitor banks, their economics and leading companies.
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Oil demand: how much can you save in a crisis?

CO2 emissions per hour of activity?

Electric motors: state of flux?

This 15-page note explores whether axial flux motors could come to dominate in the future of transportation. They promise 2-3x higher power densities, even versus Tesla’s world-leading PMSRMs; and 10-15x higher than clunky industrial AC induction units; while also surpassing c96% efficiencies.
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Variable frequency drives energy transition

Electric motors: variable star?

Variable frequency drives precisely control motors. Amazingly they could reduce global electricity demand by c10%. We expect a sharp acceleration due to sustained energy shortages, increasingly renewable-heavy grids and excellent 20-50% IRRs. Hence this 14-page note reviews the opportunity and who benefits.
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Variable frequency drives: the economics?

Variable frequency drives optimize the operating speeds of electric motors. Average energy saving are 34% and average costs are $250/kW. Hence our modelling calculates >15% IRRs installing a VFD at a typical industrial motor. This data-file captures the economics.
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Leading companies in variable frequency drives

Variable frequency drives: leading companies?

This data-file outlines the top twenty companies producing variable frequency drives to precisely control electric motors. The top three companies are European capital goods players. High-quality VFDs may protect against growing competition from China.
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Aspen Aerogels: insulation breakthrough?

Aerogels have thermal conductivities that are 50-80% below conventional insulators. Target markets include preventing thermal runaway in electric vehicle batteries and cryogenic industrial processes (e.g., LNG). This data-file notes some challenges, using our usual patent review framework.
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Insulation: deliver us from gas shortages?

Insulating materials slow the flow of heat from a warm house by 30-100x. But 60-90% of today’s housing stock is 30-70% under-insulated. We think renovation rates could treble as gas shortages re-prioritize energy savings. This 12-page note screens who might benefit.
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Heat pumps: hot and cold?

Some policymakers now aspire to ban gas boilers and ramp heat pumps 10x by 2050. In theory, the heat pump technology is superior. But in practice, there are ten challenges. It could become a political disaster. The most likely outcome is a 0-2% pullback in European gas by 2030.
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Heat pumps: a screen of providers and reviews?

This data-file tabulates our subjective opinions on c20 different heat pump companies, based on their consumer reviews, pricing, reliability, efficiency, company size, models, integration, and visual/acoustic properties. We conclude heat pumps are opaque and must be selected carefully.
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Absorption chillers: the economics?

This data-file approximates the costs of absorption chillers, which perform the thermodynamic alchemy of converting waste heat (e.g., from a CHP turbine) into coldness. This will be increasingly important to shore up future, renewables-heavy grids. 10% IRRs can also be generated with $50/ton CO2 abatement costs.
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Combined heat and power turbines: market sizing?

The purpose of this data-file is to ballpark the ultimate potential market size for combined heat and power systems in the US (CHPs). Our build-up looks across five main categories: large power facilities, large industrial heating facilities, landfill gas, electric vehicle charging and smaller-scale commercial and multi-family usage.
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Energy efficiency of motors and power generators?

This data-file estimates the efficiency of electric motors and power generators, using specific examples and data-points. This matters as there are around 50bn motors in the world, consuming c45% of global electricity. Efficiency ratings are generally high, above 90%, although lagging and non-optimized motors can be in the 70-80% range.
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Oil demand: the rise of autonomous vehicles?

We are raising our medium-term oil demand forecasts by 2.5-3.0 Mbpd to reflect the growing reality of autonomous vehicles. AVs improve fuel economy in cars and trucks by 15-35%, and displace 1.2Mbpd of air travel. But their convenience also increases travel. This note outlines the opportunity.
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companies developing autonomous vehicles

Autonomous vehicles: technology leaders?

We have screened 25 leading companies in autonomous vehicles (public and private), tabulating their technical progress and proposals for Level 4-5 autonomy. 75% of the companies were founded in the last decade. Leaders are focused on freight, cars, taxis and LiDAR sensing.
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Cost and CO2 intensity of home cooking technologies?

Industrial heating technologies: an overview?

Lighting: historical costs and energy efficiency?

This data-file assesses lighting solutions throughout history, from candles, to whale oil, to incandescent bulbs, to modern LEDs. Overall, the best LEDs now achieve over 80% useful energy efficiency. Lighting costs have improved by 100x over the past century, while efficiency has improved 13x.
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Vertical greenhouses in the energy transition

Vertical greenhouses: what future in the transition?

Vertical greenhouses achieve 10-400x greater yields per acre than field-growing, stacking layers of plants indoors, and illuminating each layer with LEDs. Economics are exciting. CO2 intensity varies. But it can be carbon-negative if powered by renewables. This 17-page case study outlines the opportunity.
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Energy efficiency of household appliances?

We estimate a house equipped with the best modern appliances will likely have 60% lower energy demand versus 30-years ago. 40% is from improvements over time, and 20% is from choosing the best modern appliances in each category. We present 20,000 data-points across eight categories.
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Cross laminated timber costs in carbon negative construction

Carbon negative construction: the case for mass timber?

Construction accounts for 10% of global CO2, mainly due to cement and steel. But mass timber could become a dominant new material for the 21st century, lowering emissions 15-80% at no incremental cost. Debatably mass timber is carbon negative if combined with sustainable forestry. We outline the opportunity.
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Ground source heat pumps: the economics?

A ground source heat pump approximately doubles the efficiency of home heating and cooling, through heat-exchange with the shallow earth, which remains at 10-15°C temperatures year-round. This data-file captures the cost and CO2 savings.
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Smart Energy: technology leaders?

Smart meters and smart devices are capable of transmitting and receiving real-time consumption data and instructions. This data-file tracks 40 leading companies, mostly at the venture and growth stages. They help lower demand, smooth grid volatility and encourage appliance upgrades.
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Turbo-charge gas turbines: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of turbo-charging gas turbines, which increases the mass flow of combustion air, to improve their power ratings by c10-20%. IRRs are solid. Turbo-charged gas turbines could thus gain greater share as grids become saturated with renewables
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The ascent of drones?

In 2019, we argued drones would be the single most disruptive technology to gain share in the 2020s, with potential to save over 500MTpa of CO2 emissions, while re-shaping urban consumption, retail and manufacturing. This data-file aims to tabulate key news flow and data-points.
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Weatherization of homes: what methods and costs?

The weatherization of 2M American homes is part of Joe Biden's proposed energy policy, in order to reduce heating costs and emissions. Hence, this data-file estimates the costs and payoffs of attic insulation, air sealing, window upgrades, window coverings and smart thermostats.
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IRR economics of combined heat and power $

Combined heat and power: the economics?

This data-file models the energy economics of a combined heat and power installation, to provide electricity and heating behind the meter, in lieu of purchasing electricity from the grid. Economics are strong, especially for larger units. CO2 emissions can also be reduced by 5-30% due to high efficiency.
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Vehicles

Vehicles: energy transition conclusions?

Vehicles transport people and freight around the world, explaining 70% of global oil demand, 30% of global energy use, 20% of global CO2e emissions. This overview summarizes all of our research into vehicles, and key conclusions for the energy transition.
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Electric vehicles: motors and magnets?

This data-file assesses electric vehicle magnets, permanent magnets and the use of Rare Earth materials such as neodymium (NdFeB). 80-90% of recent EVs have used Rare Earth permanent magnets, averaging 1.5 kg per vehicle, or 7.5g/kW of drive-train power, across the data-file. But the numbers vary vastly. From 0-4 kg per vehicle. 20 vehicles from different OEMs are tabulated in the data-file.
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Bulk shipping: cost breakdown?

Bulk carriers move 5GTpa of commodities around the world, explaining half of all seaborne global trade. This model is a breakdown of bulk shipping cost. We estimate a cost of $2.5 per ton per 1,000-miles, and a CO2 intensity of 5kg per ton per 1,000-miles. Marine scrubbers increasingly earn their keep and uplift IRRs from 10% to 12% via fuel savings.
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Offshore vessels: fuel consumption?

This database tabulates the typical fuel consumption of offshore vessels, in bpd and MWH/day. We think a typical offshore construction vessel will consume 300bpd, a typical rig consumes 200bpd, supply vessels consume 150bpd, cable-lay vessels consume 150bpd, dredging vessels consume 100bpd and medium-sized support vessels consume 50bpd. Examples are given in each category, with typical variations in the range of +/- 50%.
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Hillcrest: ZVS inverter breakthrough?

Hillcrest Energy Technologies is developing an ultra-efficient SiC inverter, which has 30-70% lower switching losses, up to 15% lower system cost, weight, size, and thus interesting applications in electric vehicles. How does it work and can we de-risk the technology?
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Auto manufacturing: the economics?

power electronics for electric vehicle charging

EV fast charging: opening the electric floodgates?

This 14-page note explains the crucial power-electronics in an electric vehicle fast-charging station, running at 150-350kW. Most important are power-MOSFETs, comprising c5-10% of charger costs. The market trebles by the late 2020s.
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Power-MOSFETs: leading companies?

Power MOSFETs are an energy transition technology, the building block behind inverters, DC-DC converters, EV drive trains, EV chargers and other renewables-battery interfaces. Hence this data-file is a screen of companies making power MOSFETs, especially new and higher-efficiency devices using Silicon Carbide as the semi-conductor.
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Electric vehicles: chargers of the light brigade?

This 14-page note compares the economics of EV charging stations with conventional fuel retail stations. Our main question is whether EV chargers will ultimately get over-built. Hence prospects may be best for charging equipment and component manufacturers.
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Electric motors: state of flux?

Axial flux motors: leading companies and products?

This data-file profiles leading companies and products in the space of axial flux motors, with an average power density of almost 8kW/kg, which is 10x higher than a typical AC induction motor in heavy industry. Leading companies are profiled, based on reviewing over 1,200 patents.
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Mine trucks: transport economics?

There are around 50,000 giant mining trucks in operation globally. The largest examples are 15m long, 10m wide, 8m high, can carry around 350-450 tons and reach top speeds of 40mph. This data-file captures the economics, costs and inflationary impacts of decarbonization.
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LNG transport: shipping economics?

This data-file breaks down the cost of shipping cryogenic cargoes in seaborne tankers. LNG costs $1-3/mcf. The most important input variable is transport distance. Although switching to e-fuels (green hydrogen, ammonia, methanol) can double total cost.
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Commercial aviation: air travel economics?

Container freight: shipping economics?

ChargePoint: electric vehicle charging edge?

ChargePoint is the leading provider of Level 2 EV charging stations in the US and aims to help electrify mobility and freignt. Our review finds a library of simple, clear, specific and easy-to-understand patents. More debatable are the technology edge and future IP defensability.
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Vehicle mass: what opportunities to improve fuel economy?

Steel comprises c50% of the volume and c80% of the weight of materials in a vehicle. Each 1% reduction in mass yields a 1% improvement in fuel econome. Carbon fiber repays its extra costs after 30-70k miles, while hybridisation repays its extra costs after 10-30k miles.
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Battery recycling: long division?

Recycling lithium batteries could be worth $100bn per year by 2040 while supporting electric vehicles’ ascent. Hence new companies are emerging to recapture 95% of spent materials with environmentally sound methods. Our 15-page note explores what it would take for battery-recycling to become both practical and compelling.
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Nio: EV-charging breakthrough?

Nio is a listed, electric vehicle manufacturer, headquartered in Shanghai. It operates over 200 "battery swap" stations, and the 2-millionth battery swap was completed in March-2021, with swap times soon falling to 3-minutes. Our patent analysis suggests a genuine moat in swappable batteries, which could only have been built up by an auto-maker.
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Oil demand: the rise of autonomous vehicles?

CO2 emissions producing batteries for EVs

Electric vehicles versus ICEs, hybrids and hydrogen?

Producing an electric vehicle's battery emits c9T of CO2. Hence, EVs will ultimately have c50% lower emissions than gasoline vehicles, assuming equivalent c8-10 year lifespans. But it takes around 3.5 years and c50,000 miles for the EV to 'repay' the CO2-costs of producing its battery. This data-file presents the calculations.
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Autonomous vehicles: technology leaders?

Electric trucks: what battery sizes?

An electric truck would need a 15 ton battery to match the c2,500-mile range of a diesel truck. However, larger batteries above c8-tons detract 10% from fuel economy and may cause trucks to exceed regulatory weight limits, lowering their payload capacities. 4-6 ton batteries with 700-1,000km ranges are optimal.
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Costs of electric vehicle charging stations

Electric vehicle charging: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of electric vehicle chargers, by disaggregating the costs of different charger types. Economics are most favorable where they lead to incremental retail purchases and for faster chargers. Economics are least favorable around apartments, charging at work and for slower charging speeds.
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Technical challenges for hydrogen fuel cells

Proton exchange membrane fuel cells: what challenges?

This data-file reviews fifty patents into proton exchange membrane fuel cells, filed by leading companies in the space in 2020, in order to understand the key challenges the industry is striving to overcome. The key focus areas are controlling temperature, humidity and longevity, but unfortunately this will tend to increase costs.
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Electric vehicle charging: what challenges?

We review fifty patents from leading companies in EV charging. Complex algorithms will be required to ensure grid stability. Vehicle-manufacturers are concerned about balancing convenience and costs. While interestingly, "fast charging" does not appear to be a primary focus.
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Lithium ion batteries for electric vehicles: what costs?

This data-file disaggregates the costs of electric vehicle batteries, which have been reported at $156/kWh in 2019, across 25 different categories. We argue manufacturing costs can halve again, materials costs are likely to inflate if EV production grows 20x by 2030, while little room remains for margins.
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The ascent of drones?

Costs per mile of SUVs hybrids EVs and hydrogen cars

Vehicle costs: cars, SUVs, hybrids, EVs and hydrogen?

This data-file quantifies the cost per mile of vehicle ownership across different categories by correlating second hand car prices with their accumulated mileage. Hybrids and regular passenger cars are most economical. SUVs and EVs are 2x more expensive. Hydrogen vehicles depreciate fastest and will have lost over 90% of their value after 100,000 miles.
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Tesla IP battery electric vehicle innovations

Tesla: where’s the IP?

This data-file compiles all of Tesla's patents, classifies them across 1,000 patent families, and describes their innovations. Our conclusion is that Tesla holds less patented IP than rival auto-companies. However, where it has filed patents, it is more focused on pure EV innovations, including recently, big data solutions and improved batteries in 2019-20.
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Hydrogen: lost in transportation?

Transporting hydrogen will be more challenging than any other energy commodity ever commercialised. This 19-page note reviews the costs and complexities of cryogenic trucks, pipelines and chemical carriers (e.g., ammonia). Midstream costs will be 2-10x higher than natural gas, while up to 50% of hydrogen’s embedded energy may be lost in transit.
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Green hydrogen trucks: delivery costs?

We have modelled full-cycle economics of a green hydrogen value chain to decarbonize trucks. In Europe, at $6/gallon diesel, hydrogen trucks will be 30% more expensive in the 2020s. They could be cost-competitive by the 2040s. But the numbers are generous and logistical challenges remain. Niche adoption is more likely than a wholesale shift.
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Hydrogen vehicles and fueling station companies and challenges

Hydrogen vehicles and fuelling stations: where’s the IP?

We cleaned 18,600 patents into hydrogen vehicles and vehicle fuelling stations. Technology leaders include large auto-makers, industrial gas companies, Energy Majors and hydrogen specialists. Overall, the patents indicate the array of challenges that must be solved to scale up hydrogen fuel in transport.
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Alternative truck fuels: how economic?

We have modelled the relative economics of different truck fuels. The incumbent, diesel, is compared with alternatives, such as hydrogen, LNG, Compressed Natural Gas and LPG, across 35 different metrics. Carbon-offset diesel is still the most economical trucking fuel.
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Energy storage: batteries versus supercapacitors?

Supercapacitors may eclipse lithium ion batteries in the hybridization of transport and industry. Their energy density is improving. Potential CO2 savings could surpass 1bn tons per year. IRRs of 10-50% can be achieved, even prior to CO2 prices. These are our conclusions after reviewing 2,000 Western patents. We profile the leading companies exposed to the theme.
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Autonomous vehicles: where’s the IP?

We screen 37,000 patents into autonomous vehicles, which will likely increase total road travel by c10%. The pace of activity has been rising at a rapid, 37% CAGR. Our data-file notes the most active companies, including tech firms (Denso, MobilEye, TuSimple, Uber, Waymo, Zoox) and auto companies (Ford, GM, Honda, Toyota, Volvo et al).
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Electric Rail Energy Economics?

This data-file models the energy economics of constructing new electric rail lines, to displace automobile traffic and accelerate the energy transition. Electric rail saves around 1kT of CO2 per track-mile per year. But capex costs are challenging. Double digit returns may be achievable on large lines, outside the United States. CO2 prices do not materially help.
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Urban Traffic by Time and by Travel Speeds?

We have quantified the average speed of automobiles on a dozen highways and expressways flowing into New York City. Traffic is most severe at 4-5pm. The data suggest moderate-severe traffic conditions can curtail average vehicle fuel economy by 15-45% on highways leading in a typical city.
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Reasons for travel: by purpose and mode of transport

This database disaggregates 1.1trn miles of long-distance travel, by purpose, by transportation type and distance category, as context for COVID-19. c30% of long-distance travel is for business, c10% is commuting and c45% is for leisure. These splits vary markedly across planes, trains and automobiles.
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US Vehicle Sales by Fuel Economy: Cars, Trucks and SUVs

Vehicle purchasing decisions are influenced by real oil prices, as shown in this data-file. Below $40/bbl, fuel economy deteriorates at -0.8% per year, as SUVs and pickups gain share. Above $80/bbl, fuel economy improves at 2% pa as consumers prefer sedans and efficient vehicles.
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Metals

Power grids: down to the wire?

Power grid circuit kilometers need to rise 3-5x in the energy transition. This trend directly tightens global aluminium markets by over c20%, and global copper markets by c15%. Slow recent progress may lead to bottlenecks, then a boom? This 12-page note quantifies the rising demand for circuit kilometers, grid infrastructure, underlying metals and who benefits?
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Magnets and energy: fundamental attraction?

Electric currents create magnetic fields. Moving magnets induce electric currents. These principles underpin 95% of global electricity, while 50% of wind turbines and 95% of electric vehicles use permanent magnets with Rare Earth metals. This 15-page overview of magnets explains key magnet concepts and controversies for the energy transition.
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Blue steel: construction boom?

The DRI+EAF pathway already underpins 6% of global steel output, with 50% lower CO2 than blast furnaces. But could IRA incentives encourage another boom here? Blue hydrogen can reduce CO2 intensity to 75% below blast furnaces, and unlock 20% IRRs at $550-600/ton steel? This 13-page report explores the opportunity, and who benefits.
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Electrasteel: renewable steel breakthrough?

Electra is developing an electrochemical refining process, to convert iron ore into high purity iron, and ultimately into steel, using only renewable electricity. It has raised c$100M, gained high-profile backers, and is working towards a test plant. This 9-page note reviews an exceptionally detailed patent, finds clear innovations, but also some remaining risks and cost question marks.
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Super-alloys: what role in energy transition?

Super-alloys have exceptionally high strength and temperature resistance. They help to enable 6GTpa of decarbonization, across efficient gas turbines, jet engines (whether fueled by oil, hydrogen or e-fuels), vehicle parts, CCS, and geopolitical resiliency. Hence this 15-page report explores nickel-niobium super-alloys, energy transition upside, and leading companies.
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Direct reduced iron: costs and projects?

Direct reduced iron (DRI) is produced by reacting iron ore with H2-CO syngas, fueled by natural gas, in over 150 facilities worldwide. Direct reduction iron costs $300/ton, consuming 3,000kWh/ton of energy and CO2 intensity of 0.6 tons/ton. The process can be decarbonized via low-carbon hydrogen in the syngas, as the world strives towards decarbonized steel.
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Metals and materials: strength and temperature resistance?

This data-file aggregates information into the strength, temperature resistance, rigidity, costs and CO2 intensities of important metals and materials. These are used in gas turbines, wind turbines, pipelines, CCS, power transmission.
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Leading companies in super-alloys?

This data-file is a screen of leading companies in super-alloys, covering US pure-plays, mega-caps in industrials and defence, and emerging world producers of Rare Earth metals. In each case, we have included our notes and observations.
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Boston Metal: molten oxide electrolysis of steel?

Boston Metal aims to decarbonize steel, using molten oxide electrolysis, absorbing 4MWH/ton of steel. This data-file is a Boston Metal technology review, based on assessing 55 patents across 3 families. We were unable to de-risk the technology. A key challenge is conveying current into the cell, as it operates around 1,600C, which is above the melting point of most feasible conductor materials.
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Solar surface: silver thrifting?

Ramping new energies is creating bottlenecks in materials. But how much can material use be thrifted away? This is a case study of silver intensity in the solar industry, which halved in the past decade, and could halve again. Conclusions matter for solar companies, silver markets, other bottlenecks.
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Model of losses in a solar cell: surface, emitter and shading?

This data-file calculates the losses in a solar cell from first principles. Losses on the surface of the cell are typically c4%, due to contact resistance, emitter resistance and shading. Sensitivity analysis suggests there may be future potential to halve silver content in a solar cell from 20g/kW to 10g/kW without materially increasing the losses beyond 4%.
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Bioleaching: case studies and examples?

Bioleaching uses bacteria to metabolize insoluble sulfides and iron complexes. It produces 20% of the world's copper; with 50% lower capex, at least 50% less CO2 and up to 80-90% recoveries; but it is currently limited to specific mineralogies. A prospect for the 2020s is that new technologies may unlock more minerals.
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Jetti Resources: copper leaching breakthrough?

Jetti Resources has developed a breakthrough technology to recover copper from low-grade sulfide ores, by leaching with sulphuric acid, thiocarbonyls, ferric iron (III) sulphates and oxidizing bacteria. The patents lock up the technology, with detailed experimental data. But what are the costs of copper production, what CO2 intensity and what technical challenges remain?
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Commodities needed for energy transition

Energy transition: the top ten commodities?

This data-file summarizes our latest thesis on ten commodities with upside in the energy transition. The average one will see demand rise by 3x and price/cost appreciate or re-inflate by 100%. The data-file contains a 6-10 line summary of our work into each commodity.
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Weird recessions: can commodities de-couple?

In a ‘weird recession’, GDP growth turns negative, yet commodity prices continue surprising to the upside. This 10-page note explores three reasons that 2022-24 may bring a ‘weird recession’. There is historical precedent, prices must remain high to attract new investment and buyers may stockpile bottlenecked materials. How will this affect different industries?
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How do commodities perform during recessions?

How do commodities perform in recessions? Industrial metals are usually hit hardest, falling 35% peak-to-trough. Energy price spikes partly cause two-thirds of recessions, then typically trade back to pre-recession levels. Precious metals, mainly gold, tend to appreciate in financial crises. Data are compiled in this file, across recessions back to 1970.
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Silver and gold: medal winners?

Gold and silver are stores of value, especially in a world of persistently high inflation and low rates. Silver is also likely to be the main bottleneck for solar in the 2020s. Hence our 18-page note models the end-to-end mining and refining of these metals. We find very steep energy/CO2 curves, and fear supply shortages. What upside for well-run gold-silver incumbents?
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Overview of mining equipment companies?

This data-file is an overview of mining equipment companies. For each company, we have noted its location, size, age, number of employees, number of patents, latest revenues, operating margins, exposure to the mining equipment industry, and a few short summary sentences. Where possible, we have also broken down the company's revenues by end-market or by commodity.
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Silver and gold: the economics?

This data-file captures the marginal cost of silver and gold production, at an integrated mining-refining operation. In our base case, a 10% IRR requires a silver price of $17/Oz and a gold price of $1,750/Oz, while the energy and CO2 intensities are an eye watering 100-150 tons/ton and 9,000 tons/ton, respectively. Numbers vary widely on ore grade.
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Heap leaching: energy economics?

Electrowinning: costs and energy economics?

Electrowinning costs and energy economics are built up in this data-file. A charge of $900/ton is required to earn a 10% IRR on a $3,000/kTpa plant with a median energy consumption of 2-3 MWH/ton. Although this will vary metal by metal.
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Froth flotation: the economics?

The costs of froth flotation are aggregated in this data-file, building up the typical capex costs (in $/Tpa), energy costs (in kWh/ton) and other opex lines (in $/ton) of one of the most important processes for the modern metals and materials industry. A good rule of thumb is $10/ton costs to concentrate a material by over 4x.
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Bio-coke: energy economics?

Bio-coke is a substitute for coal-coke in steel-making and other smelting operations. We model it will cost c$450/ton, c50% more than coal-coke, but saves 2 - 2.5 tons/ton of CO2. Abatement costs can be as low as $70/ton. Although not always, and there are comparability issues.
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Mining: crushing, grinding and comminution costs?

Mining crushing-grinding costs are typically $10/ton of ore, breaking 3-10cm rubble into 30-100 micron powders. Capex averages $20/Tpa and energy cost averages 20kWh/ton.
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Solar contacts: silver bullet?

The front contacts in today’s solar cells are made of screen-printed silver, absorbing 11% of 2021’s silver market. Silver can be substituted with copper, but manufacturing is c5x more costly. So we expect a silver spike, then a switch. This 16-page note explains our outlook, and who benefits?
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Silver demand: upside and substitution?

This data-file is a simple demand outlook for silver in the energy transition. Demand could rise 2.5x from 30kTpa to 85kTpa in 2050, driven by solar and electrification. Although in practice, we think a price spike will displace silver with copper.
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Aurubis: copper recycling breakthrough?

Recycling: a global overview of energy savings?

Silver producers: leading companies?

Half of the world's 28kTpa global silver market is controlled by 17 public companies, with silver output ranging from 0.1 - 2.0 kTpa, and co-producing gold, copper or other metals. This data-file is a screen of silver producers, in order to identify leading companies.
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Electrical conductivity: energy transition materials?

Electrical conductivity of energy transition materials is tabulated in this data-file. 'The action' takes place in the range of 10^-8 to 10^-3 Ohm-meters, including silver in solar cells, copper in renewables and EVs, aluminium transmission lines, batteries, and solar semi-conductors.
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Direct lithium extraction: ten grains of salt?

Direct Lithium Extraction from brines could help lithium scale 30x in the Energy Transition; with costs and CO2 intensities 30-70% below mined lithium; while avoiding the 1-2 year time-lags of evaporative salars. This 15-page note reviews the top ten challenges that decision-makers need to de-risk.
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Ionic radius: comparing cation chemistry?

Ionic radius measures the width of ions, in pico-meters (one billionth of a millimeter, one trillionth of a meter), or in angstroms (100 pico-meters). This short note contains our top conclusions on ionic radius, as we find ourselves doing more inorganic chemistry around metals in the energy transition.
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Lithium from brines: the economics?

This data-file approximates the costs of battery-grade lithium from brines, via traditional salars the emerging technology of direct lithium extraction. Costs are c40-60% lower than mined lithium in ($/ton of lithium carbonate equivalent). CO2 intensity is 50-80% lower (in kg/kg).
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Nickel solutions: unblocking a battery bottleneck?

The global nickel market will grow from $30bn pa to $300bn in the energy transition, including a 5x increase in volumes and 2x increase in price. This 15-page note evaluates the nickel supply chain for electric vehicle battery cathodes. Deficits are looming. Hence we end by screening nickel names.
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Nickel production: the economics?

This model captures the economics of producing battery-grade nickel (e.g., Class I, nickel sulphate) at a metallurgical processing facility. Marginal cost is likely around $11,500/ton in order to generate a 10% IRR, in a process emitting 14 tons of CO2 per ton of product. Numbers vary.
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Nickel producers: a screen of miners and refiners?

25 companies dominate the world's nickel production, although the supply chain is heavily split between battery-grade materials, Class I metals, and lower-grade products. Each company is summarized, according to its size and asset base. CO2 intensity varies by a very wide 10x margin, from sub-10 tons/ton nickel to 100 tons/ton.
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Renewables: can they ramp up faster?

How fast can wind and solar accelerate, especially if energy shortages persist? This 11-page note reviews the top ten bottlenecks. Seven value chains will tighten enormously in the coming years. Paradoxically, however, ramping renewables could exacerbate near-term energy shortages.
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Green steel: circular reference?

Steel explains almost c10% of global CO2. Hence 2021 has seen the world’s first ‘green steel’ made using green hydrogen. Yet inflation worries us. At $7.5/kg H2, green steel would cost 2x conventional steel. In turn, doubling the global steel price would re-inflate green H2 costs by $0.5/kg. This note explores inflationary feedback loops and other options for steel-makers.
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Economics steel production blast furnace

Steel production: costs and energy economics?

This data-file captures steel production from the reduction of iron ore in a blast furnace and basic oxygen furnace. Our base case is a marginal cost of $550/ton and 2.4 tons/ton of CO2. Decarbonization options such as hydrogen can be stress-tested.
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Mine trucks: transport economics?

Cobalt: leading producers?

Our global decarbonization models burn through the world's entirely terrestrial cobalt resources. Hence this data-file reviews c25 mines around the world, and the resultant positions of 25 global cobalt producers. All cobalt is produced alongside copper or nickel, but some companies are more cobalt-exposed.
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Copper: leading producers?

This data-file is a screen of the world's largest copper miners and producers, covering 16 companies that produce half of all global output. The average company produces around 0.8MTpa, has a 30-year reserve life, and derives 30% of its EBITDA from copper.
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Power cables: how much aluminium and copper?

This data-file is a simple calculator to estimate the amount of copper and aluminium required in conducting cables, such as for wind or solar plants, or for electric vehicle fast-chargers. A typical EV charger might use 100kg of copper while a renewable power plant uses 100T of aluminium.
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Lilac solutions: lithium breakthrough?

Lilac Solutions aims to commercialize a lithium ion exchange technology, which can extract lithium from dilute brine solutions, rapidly, economically and scalably. Overall Lilac's patents look promising to us. They contain some excellent, precise and intelligible details on making ion exchange materials.
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Copper: the economics?

It is not unimaginable that copper prices could reach $15,000/ton in an aggressive energy transition scenario. This data-file models the economics, and quantifies 4kg of CO2 emissions per kg of copper production, across a typical supply chain.
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Lithium: reactive?

Lithium demand is likely to rise 30x in the energy transition. So this 15-page note reviews the mined lithium supply chain, finding prices will rise too, by 10-50%. The main reason is lower-grade ores. Second is energy intensity. Low-cost lithium brine producers may benefit from steeper cost curves.
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Lithium producers: leading companies?

This data-file captures c20 lithium producers, their output (in kTpa), their size and their recent progress. Eight companies effectively control 90% of global supply. 3 out of 12 earlier-stage companies underwent restructurings in 2020, illustrating risks, but also potential future supply shortages.
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Lithium mining and upgrading: the economics?

This data-file quantifies the economics of producing lithium carbonate from spodumene in mined pegmatites. We estimate a price of $12,500/ton lithium carbonate price is likely needed for a 10% IRR in today's China-heavy value chain, which emits 50kg of CO2 per kg of lithium.
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Energy costs of mining processes?

Generally, we think a 33% ore grade will likely require 100kWh of mining energy per ton of finished commodity, mostly consumed in the form of electricity, and emitting 50kg of CO2. Each $100/ton increase in global CO2 abatement costs will therefore increase the cost of mined commodities by c3%.
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Battery recycling: long division?

Battery recycling: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of recycling spent lithium ion batteries, taking in waste cells, and recovering materials such as cobalt, nickel, manganese, copper, aluminium, lithium and steel. It currently looks challenging to generate acceptable IRRs without charging a disposal fee in the range of $1,700-2,000/ton. This could change through more automated processes.
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Global copper demand in the energy transition

Copper: global demand forecasts?

This data-file estimates global copper demand as part of the energy transition, rising from 28MTpa in 2022 to 70MTpa in our base case scenario. The largest contributor is the electrification of transport. You can stress test half-a-dozen key input variables in the model.
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Aluminium production: energy economics?

This data-file captures the energy economics of aluminium production via electrolysis, breaking down the costs line-by-line. The overall process emits 10kg of CO2 per kg of aluminium. 10% IRRs are achievable at recent prices of $2.3/kg. But challenges are illustrated for environmental policy.
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Lithium: global demand forecasts?

This data-file estimates global demand for lithium as part of the energy transition. The market has already trebled from 23kTpa in 2010 to 65kTpa in 2020, while we see the ascent continuing to 500kTpa in 2030 and almost 2MTpa in 2050. 90% is driven by transport. Global reserves suffice to cover the demand.
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Electric arc furnaces for lower-carbon steel production?

Electric arc furnaces generate enormous amounts of heat to recycle scrap steel, with 85% lower CO2 emissions than primary steel production. Our base case model yields a 15% IRR at $475/ton steel prices and a 10c/kWh power price. However, IRRs could be uplifted 2-6pp by integrating with renewables.
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Sufficient materials to build EV batteries

Nickel, manganese, cobalt: sufficient reserves for the rise of EVs?

This data-file models whether there will be enough nickel, manganese and cobalt, to build the batteries behind the vast rise of electric vehicles embedded in our oil demand forecasts. Strong reserve replacement makes nickel and manganese unconcerning. But cobalt may be a challenge.
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Lithium ion batteries for electric vehicles: what costs?

CO2 of metal components: conventional vs additive manufacturing?

Leading Companies in Battery Recycling?

This data-file tracks over 6,000 patents filed into battery recycling technology, escalating at a 15% CAGR since 2000. 18 technology leaders are profiled ex-China, including 6 global, large-cap listed companies and 10 private companies, including some exciting, early-stage concepts to improve material recovery and costs.
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Materials

Energy economics: an overview?

This data-file provides an overview of 150 economic models constructed by Thunder Said Energy, in order to help you put numbers in context. The file shows how EBIT margins, cash margins, capex per ton, capex per kW and other financial ratios vary sub-sector by sub-sector, across power, fuels and manufacturing.
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Industrial gases: air separation units?

Cryogenic air separation is used to produce 400MTpa of oxygen, plus pure nitrogen and argon; for steel, metals, ammonia, wind-solar inputs, semi-conductors, blue hydrogen and Allam cycle oxy-combustion. Hence this 16-page report is an overview of industrial gases. How does air separation work? What costs, energy use and CO2 intensity? Who benefits amidst the energy transition?
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Electric vehicles: motors and magnets?

Cryogenic air separation: company screen?

Over $100bn pa of industrial gases and $5-6bn pa of cryogenic air separation plants are produced each year. This data-file is a screen of leading industrial gas companies and cryogenic air separation companies, breaking down their market share (number of ASUs constructed) history, geography, sales and headcounts.
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Metals and materials: strength and temperature resistance?

Bulk shipping: cost breakdown?

Blue ammonia: options strategy?

Blue ammonia can economically decarbonize the fertilizer industry, using low-cost natural gas; with options to decarbonize combustion fuels in the future. This report covers where we see the best opportunities, as reforms to the 45Q have already kick-started a 20MTpa boom of new US projects.
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Blue ammonia projects: a screen?

This data-file captures a sample of 30MTpa of blue ammonia projects from 1980 to 2030, including their location, companies, timings (year of FID, year of start-up), their sizes (in MTpa), their CO2 reductions (in %), their capex costs (in $M, where disclosed) and the implied capex costs ($/Tpa). We have also summarized each project with 3-10 lines of text.
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Silicon carbide: production costs?

This data-file captures the costs of producing different grades of silicon carbide: from materials grade SiC ($1,500/ton marginal cost, 5 tons/ton CO2 intensity) through to SiC wafers that are used in the electronics industry ($30M/ton, 200 tons/ton?). SiC semi-conductor remains opaque.
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Silicon carbide: faster switching?

Silicon carbide power electronics will jolt the energy transition forwards, displacing silicon, and improving the efficiency of most new energies by 1-10 pp. Hence we wonder if this disruptor will surprise to the upside, quintupling by 2027. This 12-page note reviews the technology, advantages, challenges, and who benefits?
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Energy transition: the top ten commodities?

Nitric acid: production costs?

Global production of nitric acid is 60MTpa, in a $25bn pa market, spanning c500 production facilities. This data-file estimates a marginal cost of $350/ton HNO3 and a CO2 intensity averaging 1.8 tons/ton. There are feedback loops where gas shortages could result in fertilizer and metal shortages.
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Overview of mining equipment companies?

Froth flotation: the economics?

Cyanide production: the economics?

Hydrogen cyanide is a chemical intermediate, used for making perspex, nylon-6,6 and sodium cyanide, which in turn is a crucial chemical for extracting gold and silver from precious metal ores. Marginal costs are usually $1,500-1,650/ton and CO2 intensities are 2-3 tons/ton.
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Mining: crushing, grinding and comminution costs?

Mining crushing-grinding costs are typically $10/ton of ore, breaking 3-10cm rubble into 30-100 micron powders. Capex averages $20/Tpa and energy cost averages 20kWh/ton.
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Manufacturing methods: an overview?

An of overview of manufacturing methods is given in this data-file. Costs are 70% correlated with energy intensity, ranging from well below 0.3 MWH/ton to well above 7MWH/ton. The lowest cost techniques take place at huge throughput in the mining industry, while the most intricate are used in semi-conductors.
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Recycling: a global overview of energy savings?

Chlor-alkali process: the economics?

This data-file captures chlor-alkali process economics, to produce 80MTpa of chlorine and 90MTpa of caustic soda. Our base case requires $600 per ecu for a 10% IRR and a growth project costing $600/Tpa. Electricity is 45% of cash cost. CO2 intensity is 0.5 tons/ton. Interestingly, chlor-alkali plants can demand shift.
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Albemarle: lithium, bromine, catalyst improvements?

Albemarle is a specialty chemicals company. Our patent screen de-risks incremental improvements in novel fire-proofing bromine compositions, further and better lithium pathways, and longer-lasting catalysts for cleaner fuels. Overall we think 70% of the patents are for technologies that will advance the energy transition in some way.
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Sulphur recovery units: Claus process economics?

This data-file captures the economics of producing sulphur from H2S via the Claus process, yielding an important input for phosphate fertilizers and metals. Cash costs are $40-60/ton and marginal costs are $100/ton. CO2 intensity is low at 0.1 tons/ton. Data-file explores shortages in energy transition?
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Tricoya: engineered wood breakthrough?

Tricoya is an engineered wood product like MDF, but it has been "acetylated", in order to confer >50-year longevity, even when exposed to the elements. Accsys Technologies is the parent company listed on AIM and Euronext Amsterdam. This data-file reviews its technology and patent library.
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Wood use: what CO2 credentials?

The carbon credentials of wood are not black-and-white. They depend on context. This 13-page note draws out the numbers and five key conclusions. They count against deforestation, in favor of using waste wood, in favor of wood materials (with some debate around paper) and strongly in favor of natural gas.
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CO2 intensity of wood: context by context?

Graphite opportunity in energy transition

Graphite: upgrade to premium?

Global graphite volumes grow 6x in the energy transition, mostly driven by electric vehicles. We see the industry moving away from China’s near-exclusive control. The future favors a handful of Western producers, integrated from mine to anode, with CO2 intensity below 10kg/kg. This 10-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Stora Enso: next-generation packaging breakthrough?

Stora Enso is a pulp, paper and forestry products business, headquartered in Finland, with €10bn per year of revenues. It argues "everything made from fossil-based materials today can be made from a tree tomorrow". Our patent screen finds a strong focus on sustainable packaging solutions, especially Microfibrillated Cellulose (MFC).
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Graphite production: the economics?

This data-file captures simplified costs for producing battery-grade graphite (i.e., 99.9% pure, coated, spheronized graphite) in an integrated facility, from mine to packaged output. Our marginal cost is estimated at around $10,000/ton for a 10% IRR. CO2 intensity varies but averages 10kg/kg.
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Graphite companies and downstream refining facilities

Graphite producers: leading companies?

This data-file screens 15 companies that are developing graphite mines, plus downstream refining facilities, to upgrade their output into highly pure spheronized graphite that can be used as an anode material for lithium ion batteries, such as in electric vehicles.
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Urea production: the economics

This data-file captures the economics of producing urea, an important fertilizer and intermediate material. We estimate a marginal cost of $325/ton, based on $2/mcf-e energy inputs. CO2 intensity is 1.5 tons/ton. But costs will increase well above $800/ton during times of energy shortages.
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Formaldehyde production: the economics?

Formaldehyde producton costs are captured in this data-file, covering one of the 'top 50' commodity chemicals intermediates (MDF, wind turbine blades, disinfectants). Marginal cost is $500/ton, a direct linear function of gas prices. Embedded CO2 is 0.75 tons/ton, of which 90% is from methanol inputs.
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Paper production: energy economics?

Paper is made by boiling wood-dust to extract cellulose fibers, then forming and drying this fibrous slush. A large new paper mill must charge $700/ton for a 10% IRR. The controversy is CO2 intensity, which is 0.4kg/kg from fossil energy, and 2.4kg/kg if you count the CO2 from burning wood residues too.
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Glass fiber: what upside in the energy transition?

Glass fiber makes up 50% of a wind turbine blade, lightens vehicles and insulates homes for 30-70% energy savings. Hence we see demand rising 3.5x in the energy transition. To appraise the opportunity, this 13-page note assesses the market, costs, CO2 intensity and leading companies.
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Glass fiber: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of producing glass fiber, the key component in fiberglass for wind turbines; but also a light-weight insulating material. Marginal cost is likely $2,000/ton, with a CO2 intensity of 1.5 tons/ton. Some Chinese product is 50% cheaper but 2x more CO2 intensive.
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Wind turbines: screen of resin and polymer specialists?

This data-file tabulates details for 20 companies that make epoxy- or polyurethane resins and adhesives, especially those that feed into the construction of wind turbines. We think there are 5 public companies ex-China with 5-35% exposure to this sub-segment of the wind industry.
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Glass fiber: screen of leading companies?

This data-file aims to provide an overview of the world's largest glass fiber manufacturers, quantifying their market share, and summarizing their offering. Covered companies include China Jushi, Owens Corning, Saint Gobain-Vetrotrex, Johns Manville and smaller Europeans.
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Renewables: can they ramp up faster?

CarbonCure: concrete breakthrough?

CarbonCure injects CO2 into concrete during the mixing process, where it mineralizes. The resultant product can most likely save 4-6% of the CO2 intensity of finished concrete. Question marks are explored in the data-file.
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Aspen Aerogels: insulation breakthrough?

Insulation materials: leading companies?

This data-file profiles a dozen companies that make thermal insulation materials, as 50-75% of all buildings standing today will likely need insulation upgrades on the road to 'net zero', while the pace of progress should be amplified in times of energy shortages.
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Carbon fiber: the miracle material?

Energy transition will catapult carbon fiber demand upwards from today's 120kTpa baseline, across wind turbine blades, more efficient vehicles and hydrogen tanks. Hence this 16-page note explores opportunities, economics, CO2 intensity and leading companies.
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Carbon fiber: energy economics?

We estimate a marginal cost of $25/kg for a 10% IRR at a new carbon fiber plant. The process will emit 30 tons of CO2 per ton of carbon fiber if powered by gas and electricity. This data-file traces the value chain, the CO2 intensity and the production costs.
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Ammonia: production costs and energy economics?

This data-file captures ammonia production costs and energy economics, starting from inputs of hydrogen and nitrogen, using the Haber process. Our base case is $450/ton NH3 and 2.4 tons/ton CO2 intensity. This matters as fertilizer production thus explains over 1% of global emissions.
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Sulphuric acid: production facilities?

This data-file profiles simple details into facilities that produce sulphuric acid. This is one of the largest commodity chemical markets in the world, at around 270MTpa. Around two-thirds of the sulphur is sourced from the oil and gas industry, for example, in refineries and natural gas production facilities.
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Carbios: plastic recycling breakthrough?

Carbios has developed an enyzmatic process to recycle 90% of PET within 10-hours, which has been described in Nature. "This highly efficient, optimized enzyme outperforms all PET hydrolases reported so far". Economics and CO2 savings can be very exciting. But our work identifies four challenges, which were hard to re-risk.
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Solar costs: four horsemen?

Solar costs have deflated by an incredible 90% in the past decade to 4-7c/kWh. Some commentators now hope for 2c/kWh by 2050. Further innovations are doubtless. But there are four challenges, which could stifle future deflation or even re-inflate solar. Most debilitating would be a re-doubling of CO2-intensive PV-silicon?
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Photovoltaic silicon: the economics?

This model breaks down the costs of photovoltaic silicon, which explains $0.1/W of a $0.3/W solar panel. There is no way silicon producers are making economic returns below $12.5/kg mono-crystalline polysilicon prices. The average kg of PV silicon in a solar panel is also most likely associated with 140kg of direct CO2.
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Inflation from energy transition policies

Inflation: will it de-rail the energy transition?

New energy policies will exacerbate inflation in the developed world, raising price levels by 20-30%. Or more, due to feedback loops. We find this inflation could also cause new energies costs to rise over time, not fall. As inflation concerns accelerate, policymakers may need to choose between delaying decarbonization or lower-cost transition pathways.
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Inflation in the energy transition?

This data-file aims to estimate how much inflation is likely to result from policies to decarbonize the global economy. Aggregate price levels might rise by 6% per $100/ton of CO2 abatement costs. New energies costs rise by 6-30%. Mobility and food rise by 15%. And materials costs rise by an average of 40%.
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Origin Materials: bio-plastics breakthrough?

Origin Materials went public via SPAC in February-2021, as it was acquired by Artius Acquisition Inc at a valuation of $1.8bn. Its ambition is to use wood residues to create carbon-negative plastics, cost-competitively with petroleum products. This data-file outlines our conclusions from reviewing patents.
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Ethane cracking: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of ethane-cracking to produce ethylene. A typical US Gulf Coast facility could generate 15% IRRs at typical capex cost of $1,135/Tpa. CO2 intensity can be as high as 1.7T of CO2 per ton of ethylene, or potentially much lower depending on the facility's energy efficiency.
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Carbon negative construction: the case for mass timber?

Construction materials: a screen of costs and CO2 intensities?

Economic costs of producing cross laminated timber to decarbonize construction

Cross-laminated timber: the economics?

This data-file captures the costs of producing cross-laminated timber, a fast-growing construction material that is c80% less CO2-intensive when substituted directly for traditional building materials such as concrete and steel. The economics are also exciting: We find potential to generate 20% IRRs.
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Methanol: the next hydrogen?

Methanol is becoming more exciting than hydrogen as a clean fuel to help decarbonize transport. Specifically, blue methanol and bio-methanol are 65-75% less CO2-intensive than oil products, while they already earn 10% IRRs at c$3/gallon prices. Unlike hydrogen, it is simple to transport and integrate methanol with pre-existing vehicles.
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Economic model of U shale sand production

US shale sand mines: simple economics?

This model is a very simple breakdown of economics for in-basin sand production, around the US shale industry. The model can also be used to quantify the potential savings from shifting from dry sand to wet sand, estimated at c25% of total costs.
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Additive Manufacturing benefits the Energy transition

3D printing an energy transition?

Additive manufacturing (AM) can eliminate 6% of global CO2, across manufacturing, transport, heat and supply chains. We have quantified each opportunity and reviewed 5,500 patents to identify who benefits, among Capital Goods companies, AM Specialists and the Materials sector.
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Companies exposed to additive manufacturing (3D printing)

Additive manufacturing: technology leaders?

This data-file tabulates 5,500 patents into additive manufacturing (3D printing), in order to identify technology leaders. Patent filings over time show a sharp acceleration, making AM one of the fastest growth areas for the energy transition. We profile 14 concentrated specialists, plus broader Cap Goods and Materials companies.
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CO2 of metal components: conventional vs additive manufacturing?

CO2-Cured Concrete: Solidia vs traditional cement?

Screen of Large Public Fertilizer Companies

This data-file screens the large, listed fertilizer companies, comparing their CO2 intensity, ROACE, cash flow and recent patent filings. The industry could be disrupted by the rise of conservation agriculture, eroding thee 186MTpa global fertilizer market, which also comprises c1% of global emissions.
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Turn the Plastics into Roads?

An opportunity is emerging to absorb mixed plastic waste, displacing bitumen from road asphalts. We find strong economics, with net margins of $200/ton of plastic, deflating the materials costs of roads by c4%. The challenge is scaling the opportunity beyond 20MTpa, as unrecycled waste plastics surpass 320MTpa. Leading companies include Dow (US, public) and MacRebur … Continue reading "Turn the Plastics into Roads?"
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Fiber Optic Cables: Patents and Leading Companies?

This data-file screens for the technology leaders in fiber-optic cables, which are crucial for the digitization of industries and the world's structural shift towards remote-working, based on screening 37,000 patents. Revenues and market shares are summarized for the leaders.
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Make CO2 into valuable products?

What if CO2 was not a waste product, but a valuable commercial feedstock? We have assessed the top 27 companies at the cutting edge, commercialising CO2 into next-generation plastics, foams, concretes, specialty chemicals and agricultural products. Each company is assessed in detail. 13 are particularly exciting. 21 are start-ups. Aramco, Chevron, Repsol also screen well.
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Turn the Plastic Back into Oil

Due to the limitations of mechanical recycling, 85% of the world’s plastic is incinerated, dumped into landfill, or worst of all, ends up in the oceans. An alternative, plastic pyrolysis, is on the cusp of commercialisation.
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Oil demand for chemicals, by product, by region

This data-file breaks down the world’s use of oil to make chemicals (i.e., plastics). It’s split across 13 different products, and the ‘Top 10’ countries/regions. The estimate year is 2016.
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Digital

What is the energy consumption of the internet?

Internet energy consumption: data, models, forecasts?

Energy intensity of fiber optic cables?

Sentient Energy: smart grid breakthrough?

This data-file is a technology review for Sentient Energy, assessing innovations in smart grids. Its technology can achieve energy savings via a combination of "Conservation Voltage Reduction" and "Volt-VAR optimization at the grid edge". This also helps to integrate more solar and EV charging into power grids. We explain the technology.
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Blockchain: why so energy intensive?

Inspection costs: drones versus traditional quality control?

This data-file estimates the costs of drone inspections, for the construction and resources industries, using bottom-up numbers from technical papers. Costs per hour can be 30% lower than for traditional quality control. A single drone, including software licenses likely costs c$30k.
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Companies in drones and drone services for construction?

This data-file is a simple screen of companies manufacturing drones and commercializing drone software. It includes 12 private companies and 4 public companies. For each company, we have tabulated their history, geography, number of patent filings and a short description.
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Smart Energy: technology leaders?

The ascent of drones?

Pace of adoption for energy transition technologies

Technology transitions: thinking fast and slow?

It takes 15-100 years for a new technology to ramp from 10% to 90% of its peak adoption rate. But what determines the pace? This 15-page note finds answers by evaluating 20 examples that changed the world from 1870 to 2020. We derive four rules of thumb, in order to quantify the pace at which different energy transition technologies will scale up.
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Ventures for an Energy Transition?

This database tabulates c300 venture investments, made by 9 of the leading Oil Majors. Their strategy is increasingly geared to advancing new energies, digital technologies and improving mobility. Different companies are compared and contrasted, including the full list of venture investments over time.
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Autonomous vehicles: where’s the IP?

Upstream technology leaders: weathering the downturn?

Leading technologies correlate 50-80% with ROACEs and -88% with costs in the energy industry. Hence, we assessed 6,000 patents from 2018-19, to determine which Energy Majors are best-placed to weather the downturn, benefit from dislocation and thrive in the recovery. We find clear leaders in onshore, offshore, shale, LNG and digital.
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Digitization after COVID-19 crisis who benefits how much

Digitization after the crisis: who benefits and how much?

We have constructed a database of digitization case studies around the energy industry to quantify the benefits, screen the most digital operators and identify longer-term winners in the supply chain. The theme will accelerate. Just 8% of digitized industrial processes will be materially disrupted due to COVID-19, compared to 80% of non-digitized processes.
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Fiber Optic Cables: Patents and Leading Companies?

The structural ascent of online retail?

Online retail sales could structurally accelerate by c9% due to the COVID-19 crisis. A full breakdown of inputs and underlying data are included in this model. Individuals that work from home tend to make c63% more online retail purchases than in situ workers.
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Working remotely: the economics, the opportunity?

The economic benefits of working remotely are between $5-16k per employee per year, as modelled in shit data-file. Hence we quantify that remote work could step up to displace 30% of all commutes from a typical developed world economy by 2030. The conclusions are substantiated using US data.
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Fully subsea offshore projects: the economics?

The model presents the economic impacts of developing a typical, 625Mboe offshore gas condensate field using a fully subsea solution, compared against installing a new production facility. The result is a c4% uplift in IRRs, a 50% uplift in NPV6 and a 33% reduction in the project's gas-breakeven price. The economics are attractive.
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Chevron: SuperMajor Shale in 2020?

SuperMajors’ shale developments are assumed to differ from E&Ps’ mainly in their scale and access to capital. Access to superior technologies is rarely discussed. But new evidence is emerging. This note assesses 40 of Chevron’s shale patents from 2019, showing a vast array of data-driven technologies, to optimize every aspect of shale.
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Shell: the future of LNG plants?

Shell is revolutionizing LNG project design, based on reviewing 40 of the company’s gas-focused patents from 2019. The innovations can lower LNG facilities’ capex by 70% and opex by 50%; conferring a $4bn NPV and 4% IRR advantage over industry standard greenfields. Smaller-scale LNG, modular LNG and highly digitized facilities are particularly abetted. This note … Continue reading "Shell: the future of LNG plants?"
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Blockchain in the Oil & Gas Supply Chain

This datafile tabulates ten examples of deploying Blockchain in the oil and gas industry since 2017; including companies and cost savings. Most prior examples are in trading. For 2020, we are particularly excited by the broadening of Blockchain technologies into the procurement industry, which can deflate shale costs.
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Super-Computer Capacity at Oil Majors Petaflops

Super-Computers at Oil Majors?

This data-file tabulates super-computing capacity possessed by leading companies in the energy industry. Computing capacity has risen 4x since 2016, and 70x since 2009. Main uses are seismic interpretation, reservoir modelling and for operational decision-making, which all increases efficiency. Leading companies are identified in the data-file.
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Electric Submersible Pump Optimisation Opportunities?

ESP Optimisation Opportunities?

This data-file calculates the financial and carbon costs of running electric submersible pumps (ESPs) at oilfields. They are material, with ESPs fitted on 15-20% of the world's c1M wells. However, we find opportunities to save >25% of CO2 emissions switching ESPs to run on gas and renewables, and a further 25-50% through optimisation initiatives.
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Drones & droids: deliver us from e-commerce

Small, autonomous, electric vehicles are emerging. They are game-changers: rapidly delivering online purchases to customers, creating vast new economic possibilities, but also driving the energy transition. Their ascent could eliminate 500MTpa of CO2, 3.5Mboed of fossil fuels and c$3trn pa of consumer spending across the OECD. The mechanism is a re-shaping of urban consumption habits, … Continue reading "Drones & droids: deliver us from e-commerce"
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Drone Delivery: the Energy Economics

We have tabulated energy economics on 15 commercial drones and run the equations of flight on Amazon's "Prime Air" solution. We conclude that drone delivery will use 90% less energy, 99% less cost and 90% lower carbon than is typical in current last-mile truck deliveries. Please download the model for all of the numbers.
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Subsea Robots: the next generation?

Over 20 next-generation subsea robotics concepts are presented. These electric solutions are increasingly autonomous, they reside subsea and can conduct more thorough inspection/intervention work. Inspection is 2-6x faster, and maintenance costs can be halved, yielding savings of $0.5-1/boe at a typical field. The data-file also summarizes the leading Majors and Service Companies in the space.
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Patent Leaders in Energy

Technology leadership is crucial in energy. But it is difficult to discern. Hence, we reviewed 3,000 patents across the 25 largest companies. This note ranks the industry’s “Top 10 technology-leaders”: in upstream, offshore, deep-water, shale, LNG, gas-marketing, downstream, chemicals, digital and renewables. In each case, we profile the leading company, its edge and the proximity … Continue reading "Patent Leaders in Energy"
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The cutting edge of shale technology?

This data-file reviews 950 technical papers from the shale industry in 2018-2020, to identify the cutting edge of shale technology. The trends show an incredible uptick in completion design, frac fluids, EOR and machine learning. Each paper is summarized and categorized. The file also shows which companies and services have a technology edge.
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Well-by-well optimisation?

Well-by-well production optimisation can uplift mature fields' output 5-20%. This data-file summarises the methodology employed by BP, which has filed the most detailed patent we have seen on the topic, from our screen of 3,000 patents around the industry.
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can computers lower oil production decline rate

Can super-computers lower decline rates?

Advanced reservoir modelling can stave off production declines at complex offshore assets. This data-file illustrates how, tabulating production estimates based on a technical paper using Eni's high-speed computer assets. 60% uplifts in LT production and EUR are achieved.
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Johan Sverdrup: Don’t Decline

Equinor is deploying three world-class technologies to mitigate Johan Sverdrup’s decline rates, based on reviewing c115 of the company’s patents and dozens of technical papers. This 15-page note outlines how its efforts may unlock an incremental $3-5bn of value from the field, as production surprises to the upside.
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Deploying the Digital Twin

This data-file tabulates 36 recent technical papers into "digital twins" since 2017, in order to understand how the technology is being deployed around the upstream oil and gas industry: principally to improve platform uptime, prevent rig downtime and inspect subsea infrastructure.
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Inflow Control: Our Top 20 Papers from 2019

This data-file summarises twenty recent papers using inflow control devices: an exciting digital technology to optimise horizontal wells by limiting production from zones that are susceptible to flowing water or gas. Each paper is categorized by company, country, field and focus. Also included are our 'Top 10' facts from the technical literature.
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Shale: Upgrade to Fiber?

This note focuses on the most exciting new data methodology we have seen across the entire shale space: distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) using fiber-optic cables. It has now reached critical mass.
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Leading Companies in DAS?

This data-file quantifies the leading companies in Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), the game-changing technology for enhancing shale and conventional oil industry productivity. Operators are screened from their patents and technical papers. Services are screened based on their size and their technology.
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DAS. At the cutting edge in shale?

This data-file summarises 25 of the most recent technical papers around the industry, using fiber-optic cables for Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS). The technology is now hitting critical mass to spur shale productivity upwards.
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cost savings for de-manning an offshore oil platform

De-Manning Deepwater?

We estimate a typical deepwater oilfield could save $15-20/bbl by "de-manning", if implemented correctly. This data-file contains our workings, across 15 cost lines, based on recent design work from Technip-FMC.
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productivity gains in the shale industry

Shale Productivity: Our “Top 50” Improvements

Critics still downplay shale productivity. This simple data-file compiles fifty examples of genuine improvements across the industry since 2015. A "one line" summary is provided for each one.
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Machine learning to predict wells performance

Explaining Shale: Can Machine Learning Capture Complexity?

Machine learning predicts 78% of the variance in shale well productivity, suggesting $1M/well savings and 19-97% resource uplifts. This data-file presents the correlation matrix between 22 inter-related variables which co-vary with well productivity. The complexity requires "big data" approaches. We see upside from Machine Learning in shale.
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Machine Learning to Optimise Rod Pumps

This data-file summarises progress using machine learning to maximise production from mature wells, by detecting errors and optimising production. There is potential to lower global decline rates by c100kbpd per annum for over a decade, and increase each well's NPV by $0.1M.
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