Lithium: global demand forecasts?

This data-file estimates global demand for lithium under our roadmap to net zero, and integrating with our oil market models. The data are disaggregated across electric vehicles, new vehicle types, consumer electronics, grid-scale batteries and conventional material uses.

Demand for lithium has already trebled from 23kTpa in 2010 to 65kTpa in 2020, while we see the ascent continuing to 500kTpa in 2030 and almost 2MTpa in 2050.

90% of demand in the 2040s is driven by transportation, especially electric vehicles. Categories such as ceramics, glasses and lubricants, which historically comprised one half of the market are crowded out.

There are sufficient lithium resources globally to meet this ascent, with 14MT of reserves and a 10-year reserve replacement ratio of 1000%. A 50% reserve replacement ratio should suffice to deliver our forecasts out to 2050.

Short notes on the market follow in the final tab of the data-file.