This data-file estimates global lithium demand amidst the ramp of electric vehicles, the rise of AI/robotics, and integrates with our oil market models. The data are disaggregated across electric vehicles, new vehicle types, consumer electronics, grid-scale batteries and conventional material uses.
Demand for lithium has already quadurpled from 23kTpa in 2010 to 85kTpa in 2020. It then trebled again to 240kTpa in 2024. We see the ascent continuing to 400kTpa in 2030 and 1.2MTpa in 2050.
This data-file estimates global lithium demand across electric vehicle batteries, industrial batteries, consumer electrics, grid storage, robotics, ceramics, glass, lubricants and other end uses. The model is flexible so that inputs and outputs can be stress-tested.
60–70% of demand in the 2040s is driven by transportation, especially electric vehicles. Categories such as ceramics, glasses and lubricants, which historically comprised one half of the market are crowded out.
Originally, we saw the global lithium market risint go 2MTpa by 2050, when we first published this model in 2019. But since then, EV markets have developed more slowly, and we have cut our long-term EV forecasts, due to cost competitiveness and slower decarbonization policies.
On the other hand, in 2025 we have upgraded our 2030 forecasts from 400kTpa to 470kTpa, due to accelerating uptake of energy storage, including round the clock power from solar+storage, and the rise of AI-enabled robotics.
So the lithium market now benefits from multiple growth drivers, rather than having over-exposure to a single market, whose acceleration/deceleration can cause very sharp price cycles in lithium. The chart below shows how perceived shortages in 2022 caused manufacturers to accelerate purchases (in kTpa), build excess inventories, and thus explode the lithium carbonate price by a factor of 8x. Then when it transpired that demand was softer, and storage was full, prices have come right back down to marginal cost of $10,000/ton. This is a classic boom-bust cycle, worth remembering for other industries. Maybe gas turbines in 2025/26?
There are sufficient lithium resources globally to meet this ascent, with 14MT of reserves and a 10-year reserve replacement ratio of 1000%. A 50% reserve replacement ratio should suffice for our forecasts to 2050.
Short notes on the market follow in the final tab of the data-file. We see a growing role for lithium mining and lithium from brines. We have also screened leading lithium producers.