New Energies Research

Our new energies research explores economic opportunities to drive the energy transition. Our definition of new energies is that they are not derived from the combustion of extracted resources. Solar radiation is directly converted to electricity in a photovoltaic cell. Wind and hydro power harness moving masses of fluids to drive turbines. Nuclear energy derives heat from fissioning heavy atoms; possibly in the future, from fusing light atoms. Generally these new energies yield electricity directly (i.e., no heat engines are involved). Electricity can be the highest-grade form of energy. But electricity also requires resilient power grids, sophisticated power electronics and possibly also energy storage via batteries. Achieving an energy transition requires moving ‘Heaven and Earth’, to de-bottleneck bottlenecks in power transmission (heaven) and mined metals and materials (earth). We also consider hydrogen and biofuels among new energies.

Solar Research

Solar trackers: leading companies?

This data-file summarizes the leading companies in solar trackers, their market share, pricing (in $/kW), operating margins (in %), company sizes, sales mixes and recent news flow. Five companies supply 70% of the market, which is worth $10bn pa. But competition is intensifying from East-West dual-tile arrays and within the tracker industry.
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Wind and solar capacity additions?

Global wind and solar capacity additions reached 630GW pa (AC-basis) in 2025, which is 3x 2020 levels and 10x 2011 levels. The pace of gross wind and solar capacity additions can rise by a further 3x by 2050, bringing wind and solar to 55% of a greatly expanded global power grid by 2050. Most of the upside is in solar.
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Enphase: GaN microinverter technology?

Enphase is a global leader in microinverters. In 2026, it released its first GaN-based microinverter, reducing weight by 25% and volume by 35%. Specific innovations come out in the patents and suggest more radical changes lie ahead, for even more power dense microinverters based on cycloconverter topologies. But does this confer any kind of edge in developing the down-converters for larger future AI racks?
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Solar costs: a breakdown over time?

Solar costs have deflated by 70% in the past decade to $800/kW in 2025. 60% has been the scale-up to mass manufacturing, and 40% has been rising efficiency of solar modules. Doubling the efficiency, and thereby the output of solar modules, can halve costs again.
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Piling works: anchoring construction costs?

Piling works involve driving long vertical shafts into the ground, which will anchor and support a structure. The costs of piling works can run to $20-200/m, as captured in this data-file, to generate a return and cover the costs of piling operations.
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Can solar provide round-the-clock power for data-centers?

This 15-page report models the costs of powering AI data centers, and other round-the-clock loads, using only solar and batteries, plus a “penalty” of 100-600 c/kWh for unmet demand. In some locations, solar+batteries will out-compete gas in the future? But an ocean of excess power gets thrown out?
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Solar+battery co-deployments: cost profiles?

Solar+battery co-deployments allow a large and volatile solar asset to produce a moderate-sized and non-volatile power output, during 40-50% of all the hours throughout a calendar year. The smooth output is easier to integrate with power grids, including with a smaller grid connection. The battery will realistically cycle 100-300 times per year.
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Wind and solar: total resource estimates?

This 16-page report estimates the total global resource potential from solar and wind. Solar resources are 20-100x larger than for wind. And more economical. Wind turbine wake losses are a growing controversy. Hence, will future renewables growth shift more towards solar?
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New energies deflation: myths and legends?

How much of the market’s current disenchantment with new energies can be attributed to persistently high costs, which failed to deflate as much as hoped? This 15-page report reviews the evidence. Cost trajectories have varied. CCS and hydrogen cost more than initially advertised. Wind costs recently re-inflated. Yet, solar, electronics and lithium ion batteries remain exceptional?
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Solar power: the economics?

Levelized costs of solar electricity are estimated at 7c/kWh in our base case, but can realistically range from 4-40c/kWh. This data-file is a breakdown of solar costs, as a function of capex, opex, insolation, curtailment and decline rates. Solar can be highly competitive, up to 35-50% of many power grids.
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Perovskite solar: beyond silicon?

Will the next chapter of solar’s ascent come from perovskite-tandem cells, followed by perovskite-on-perovskites? This 18-page report finds more momentum than we expected. There is potential for 30% cost deflation, new solar applications (in buildings/vehicles), and a disruption of PV silicon?
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Perovskite solar companies screen?

This data-file is a screen of 20 perovskite solar companies, which are producing perovskite or perovskite-tandem modules at MW-GW scale, testing perovskite cells at lab scale with a view to future manufacturing, or early- or venture-stage companies that are developing new perovskite solar technologies.
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Material and manufacturing costs by region: China vs US vs Europe?

Material and manufacturing costs by region are compared in this data-file for China vs the US vs Europe. Generally, compared with the US, materials costs are 10% lower in China, and 40% higher in Germany, although it depends upon the specific value chain. A dozen different examples are contrasted in this data-file, especially for solar value chains.
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Energy transition: solar and gas -vs- coal hard reality?

This 15-page note outlines the largest changes to our long-term energy forecasts in five years. Over this time, we have consistently underestimated both coal and solar. Both are upgraded. But we also show how coal can peak after 2030. Global gas is seen rising from 400bcfd in 2023 to 600bcfd in 2050.
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Grid-forming inverters: islands in the sun?

The grid-forming inverter market may soon inflect from $1bn to $15-20bn pa, to underpin most grid-scale batteries, and 20-40% of incremental solar and wind. This 11-page report finds that grid-forming inverters cost c$100/kW more than grid-following inverters, which is inflationary, but integrate more renewables, raise resiliency and efficiency?
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Solar trackers: following the times?

Solar trackers are worth $10bn pa. They typically raise solar revenues by 30%, earn 13% IRRs on their capex costs, and lower LCOEs by 0.4 c/kWh. But these numbers are all likely to double, as solar gains share, grids grow more volatile, and AI unlocks further optimizations? This 14-page report explores the theme and who benefits?
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Solar plus batteries: the case for co-deployment?

This 9-page study finds unexpectedly strong support for co-deploying grid-scale batteries together with solar. The resultant output is stable, has synthetic inertia, is easier to interconnect in bottlenecked grids, and can be economically justified. What upside for grid-scale batteries?
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Solar generation: minute by minute volatility?

The volatility of solar generation is evaluated in this case study, by tracking the output from a 275MW solar project, at 5-minute intervals, throughout an entire calendar year. Output is -65% lower in winter than summer, varies +/-10% each day, and +/- 5% every 5-minutes, including steep power drops that in turn require back-ups.
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Solar Superpowers: ten qualities?

Solar ramps from 6% of global electricity in 2023, to 35% in 2050. But could any regions become Solar Superpowers and reach 50% solar in their grids? And which regions will deploy most solar? This 15-page note proposes ten criteria and ranks 30 countries. The biggest surprises will be due to capital costs, grid bottlenecks and pragmatic backups.
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Solar insolation: by latitude, season, date, time and tilt?

Solar insolation varies from 600-2,500 kWh/m2/year at different locations on Earth, depending on their latitude, altitude, cloudiness, panel tilt and panel azimuth. This means the economics of solar can also vary by a factor of 4x. Seasonality is a key challenge at higher latitudes. Active strategies are emerging for orienting solar modules.
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Electromagnetic energy: Planck, Shockley-Queisser, power beaming?

Electromagentic radiation is a form of energy, exemplified by light, infrared, ultraviolet, microwaves and radiowaves. What is the energy content of light? How much of it can be captured in a solar module? And what implications? We answer these questions by explaining the Planck Equation and Shockley-Queisser limit from first principles.
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Vapor deposition: leading companies?

This data-file is a screen of leading companies in vapor deposition, manufacturing the key equipment for making PV silicon, solar, AI chips and LED lighting solutions. The market for vapor deposition equipment is worth $50bn pa and growing at 8% per year. Who stands out?
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Global solar: absorption spectrum?

How much new solar can the world absorb in a given year? And are core markets such as the US now maturing? This 15-page note refines our solar forecasts using a new methodology. Annual solar adds will likely plateau at 50-100% of total electricity demand growth in most regions. What implications and adaptation strategies?
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Silver pastes for solar contacts?

50 companies make conductive silver pastes to form the electrical contacts in solar modules. This data-file tabulates the compositions of silver pastes based on patents, averaging 85% silver, 4% glass frit and 11% organic chemicals. Ten companies stood out, including a Korean small-cap specialist.
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LONGi: technology review and solar innovations?

This data-file is our LONGi technology review, based on recent patent filings. The work helps us to de-risk increasingly efficient solar modules, a growing focus on perovskite-tandem cells, and low-cost solar modules, with simple manufacturing techniques that may ultimately displace bottlenecked silver from electrical contacts. Key conclusions in the data-file.
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Solar module production by company?

The world produced over 400GW of solar modules in 2023, which is up 10x from a decade ago. This data-file breaks down solar module production by company and over time, comparing the companies by solar module selling prices ($/kW), margins (%), efficiency (%), transparency, and technology development.
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Solar inverters: companies, products and costs?

This data-file tracks some of the leading solar inverter companies and inverter costs, efficiency and power electronic properties. As China now supplies 85% of all global inverters, at 30-50% lower $/W pricing than Western companies, a key question explored in the data-file is around price versus quality.
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Semiconductor physics: pièce de resistance?

Semiconductors underpin solar panels, electric vehicles and electronics. Hence this 20-page note aims to explain semiconductor physics from first principles: their conductivity and resistance, their use in devices, plus implications for materials value chains and the energy transition itself?
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Semiconductors: conductivity calculations?

This datafile calculates the conductivity and resistivity of semiconductors from first principles, based on their bandgap, doping, electron and hole mobility, temperature, the Fermi-Dirac distribution and the Effective Density of States. Put in any inputs you like to compute the resistance of silicon, germanium or GaAs.
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Mitsui Chemicals: solar encapsulants?

Solar encapsulants are 300-500μm thick films, protecting solar cells from moisture, dirt and degradation; electrically insulating them at 4 x 10^15 Ωcm resistivity; and yet allowing 90% light transmittance. The industry is moving away from commoditized EVA towards specialized blends of co-polymers and additives. Is there a growing moat around Mitsui Chemicals’ solar encapsulants?
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Global polysilicon production capacity?

Polysilicon is a highly pure, crystalline silicon material, used predominantly for photovoltaic solar, and also for ‘chips’ in the electronics industry. Global polysilicon capacity reached 3MTpa in 2024, and global polysilicon production surpassed 1.7MTpa in 2024. China now dominates the industry, approaching 94% of all global capacity.
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New energies: the age of materials?

Over the past decade, costs have deflated by 85% for lithium ion batteries, 75% for solar and 25% for onshore wind. Now new energies are entering a new era. Future costs are mainly determined by materials. Bottlenecks matter. Deflation is slower. Even higher-grade materials are needed to raise efficiency. This 14-page note explores the new age of materials, how much new energies deflation is left, and who benefits?
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HJT solar: Indium summer?

HJT solar modules are accelerating, as they are highly efficient, and easier to manufacture. But HJT could also be a kingmaker for Indium metal, which is used in transparent and conductive thin films (ITO). Our forecasts see primary Indium use rising 4x by 2050. Indium is 100x rarer than Rare Earth metals. It could be a bottleneck. What implications?
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Vacuum pumps: company screen?

The global market for vacuum pumps is worth $15bn per year, with growing importance for making semiconductors, solar panels and AI chips. This data-file reviews ten leading companies in vacuum pumps, including one European-listed capital goods leader, a European pure-play and a Japanese-listed pure-play.
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Renewables: how much time to connect to the grid?

Is the power grid becoming a bottleneck for the continued acceleration of renewables? The median approval time to tie a new US power project into the grid has climbed by 30-days/year since 2001, and doubled since 2015, to over 1,000 days (almost 3-years) in 2021. Wind and solar projects are now taking longest. This data-file looks for de-bottlenecking opportunities, and wonders about changing terms of trade in power markets.
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Solar surface: silver thrifting?

Ramping new energies is creating bottlenecks in materials. But how much can material use be thrifted away? This is a case study of silver intensity in the solar industry, which halved in the past decade, and could halve again. Conclusions matter for solar companies, silver markets, other bottlenecks.
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Model of losses in a solar cell: surface, emitter and shading?

This data-file calculates the losses in a solar cell from first principles. Losses on the surface of the cell are typically c4%, due to contact resistance, emitter resistance and shading. Sensitivity analysis suggests there may be future potential to halve silver content in a solar cell from 20g/kW to 10g/kW without materially increasing the losses beyond 4%.
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Solar capacity: growth through 2030 and 2050?

Forecasts for future solar growth have an unsatisfyingly uncertain range, varying by 3x. Hence this 15-page note discusses the future of solar. Solar capacity additions likely accelerate 3.5x by 2030 and 5x by 2040. But this creates bottlenecks, including for seven materials; and requires >$1trn pa of additional power grid capex plus $1trn pa of power electronics capex.
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Ethylene vinyl acetate: production costs?

Ethylene vinyl acetate is produced by reacting ethylene with vinyl acetate monomer. This data-file estimates production costs, with a marginal cost between $1,500-2,000/ton, and a total embedded CO2 intensity of 3.0 tons/ton. EVA comprises 5% of the mass of a solar panel and could be an important solar bottleneck.
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Solar: energy payback and embedded energy?

What is the energy payback and embedded energy of solar? We have aggregated the consumption of 10 different materials (in kg/kW) and around 10 other energy-consuming line-items (in kWh/kW). Our base case estimate is 2.5 MWH/kWe of solar and an energy payback of 1.5-years. Numbers and sensitivities can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Wind Research

Wind turbine manufacturers: market share over time?

This data-file tracks wind turbine manufacturers, their market shares and their margins over time. By 2025, fifteen companies account for 95% of global wind turbine installations. This includes large Western incumbents, and a growing share for Chinese entrants, which now comprise 70% of the total market, with phenomenal growth in 2025 and continued low selling prices.
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Wind and solar capacity additions?

Global wind and solar capacity additions reached 630GW pa (AC-basis) in 2025, which is 3x 2020 levels and 10x 2011 levels. The pace of gross wind and solar capacity additions can rise by a further 3x by 2050, bringing wind and solar to 55% of a greatly expanded global power grid by 2050. Most of the upside is in solar.
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Wind and solar: total resource estimates?

This 16-page report estimates the total global resource potential from solar and wind. Solar resources are 20-100x larger than for wind. And more economical. Wind turbine wake losses are a growing controversy. Hence, will future renewables growth shift more towards solar?
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Wind turbines: wake losses?

Wind turbine wake losses would deprive a downstream wind turbine of 70% of its generation capacity at 350m immediately downwind of a modern wind turbine, 50% at 700m, 40% at 1km, 20% at 2km and 10% at 4km. This is based on the Jensen model and case studies tabulated in this data-file. More recently, some sources fear larger extended wake losses that could strain wind deployment.
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Renewable-heavy grids: total system costs?

Renewables can have similar LCOEs as conventional generation sources. Yet ramping renewables to c50% of a developed world power grid inflates total system costs by at least 50%. This is because renewables require back-ups, additional T&D and power electronics. This 16-page report aims to quantify the total system costs of renewable-heavy grids, and their implications.
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New energies deflation: myths and legends?

How much of the market’s current disenchantment with new energies can be attributed to persistently high costs, which failed to deflate as much as hoped? This 15-page report reviews the evidence. Cost trajectories have varied. CCS and hydrogen cost more than initially advertised. Wind costs recently re-inflated. Yet, solar, electronics and lithium ion batteries remain exceptional?
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Onshore wind: the economics?

The levelized cost of onshore wind is estimated in this economic model, at 5-7c/kWh to generate 5-10% levered IRRs on new wind projects costing $1,000-3,000/kW. The model also contains a granular breakdown of wind capex costs, operating costs, and other economic assumptions for wind projects.
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Wind energy: beyond good and evil?

Wind economics are not good or bad in absolute terms. They depend on capacity factors, which average 26% globally, but can range from 10% to 60%. In the best locations, levelized costs are below 4c/kWh. Hence this 16-page note explores global wind capacity factors and updates our wind outlook by region throgh 2050.
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Wind turbine capacity factors: by country, by facility?

Wind turbine capacity factors average 26% globally. But they vary from c20% in non-windy countries to 45% in the windiest countries. And they also vary within countries, with a normal distribution and a standard deviation of 7-12%. This data-file maps capacity factors of wind power generation.
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Companies mitigating radar interference of wind turbines?

Wind turbines create clutter and blind spots on radar systems, interfering with air traffic control, ocean monitoring and risks to national security and defence. These themes increasingly matter. Hence this data-file screens a dozen companies mitigating the radar interference of wind turbines, from large listed providers of next-gen radar systems, to start-ups developing nano-scale stealth coatings for wind turbine blades.
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Wind generation case study: minute by minute volatility?

The volatility of wind generation is illustrated in this data-file, by aggregating the data for a large wind project in Australia, every five minutes, across an entire calendar year. Intra-day and inter-day volatility is 30-60% higher than for solar. 2-6 day feasts and famines are hard to backstop with batteries. Solar also cannibalizes wind?
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Offshore wind: the lion, the witch and the wardrobe?

This 14-page report re-visits our wind industry outlook. Our long-term forecasts are reluctantly being revised downwards by 25%, especially for offshore wind, where levelized costs have reinflated by 30% to 13c/kWh. Material costs are widely blamed. But rising rates are the greater evil. Upscaling is also stalling. What options to right this ship?
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Offshore wind: capacity by country and forecasts?

Global offshore wind capacity stood at 60GW at the end of 2022, rising at 8GW pa in the past half decade, comprising 7% of all global wind capacity, and led by China, the UK and Germany. Our forecasts see 220GW of global offshore wind capacity by 2030 and 850GW by 2050, which in turn requires a 15x expansion of this market.
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Offshore wind: levelized costs?

This model estimates the levelized cost of offshore wind at 13c/kWh, to generate a 7% IRR off of capex costs of $4,000/kW and a utilization factor of 40-45%. Each $400/kW on capex adds 1c/kWh and each 1% on WACC adds 1.3 c/kWh to offshore wind levelized costs.
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Wind turbine generators: DFIGs or Rare Earth magnets?

Wind turbines can use doubly fed induction generators (DFIGs) or permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSGs) based around Rare Earth metals. This data-file captures the trends in DFIGs vs PMSGs over time by tabulating 40 examples, as turbines have grown larger, and different wind turbine manufacturers have adopted different strategies.
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Offshore vessels: fuel consumption?

This database tabulates the typical fuel consumption of offshore vessels, in bpd and MWH/day. We think a typical offshore construction vessel will consume 300bpd, a typical rig consumes 200bpd, supply vessels consume 150bpd, cable-lay vessels consume 150bpd, dredging vessels consume 100bpd and medium-sized support vessels consume 50bpd. Examples are given in each category, with typical variations in the range of +/- 50%.
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Wind power: energy costs, energy payback and EROEI?

This data-file estimates 3MWH of energy is consumed in manufacturing and installing 1kW of offshore wind turbines, the energy payback time is usually around 1-year, and total energy return on energy invested (EROEI) will be above 20x. These estimates are based on bottom-up modelling and top-down technical papers.
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Renewables: how much time to connect to the grid?

Is the power grid becoming a bottleneck for the continued acceleration of renewables? The median approval time to tie a new US power project into the grid has climbed by 30-days/year since 2001, and doubled since 2015, to over 1,000 days (almost 3-years) in 2021. Wind and solar projects are now taking longest. This data-file looks for de-bottlenecking opportunities, and wonders about changing terms of trade in power markets.
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Offshore wind: installation costs by vessel?

An offshore wind project is likely to cost $2,500/kW, of which c$1,500/kW is turbines and $1,000/kW is offshore installation costs. This data-file aims to estimate the breakdown by vessel type, day-rates and costs per turbine.
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Goldwind: frequency response from wind turbines?

Goldwind is one of the largest wind turbine manufacturers in the world, headquartered in Beijing, and shares are publicly listed. The wind industry is increasingly aiming to mimic the inertia and frequency responses of synchronous power generators. Goldwind has published some interesting case studies. Hence we have reviewed its patents to see if we can find an edge?
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Offshore wind: installation vessels and time per turbine?

Wind turbine installation vessels are estimated to cost $100-500/kW in the breakdown of a typical offshore wind project’s capex. Total offshore construction time is around 10 days per turbine. Wind turbine installation vessel use averages around 5 days per turbine. Data from past projects are tabulated in this data-file.
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Cable installation vessels: costs and operating parameters?

This is a database of cable installation vessels for offshore wind and power transmission; tabulating costs (in $M), contract awards (in $/km), capacity (in tons), installation speeds (in meters per hour), power ratings (in MW), crew sizes and positioning systems. There is a paradox over costs.
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Wind volatility: second by second output data?

We have evaluated the second-by-second data on the power output of a 25MW onshore wind farm in Germany. A typical day sees 75 volatility events. Compared to solar, wind power drops slightly less frequently, but more extensively (often >90%) and for longer (often several hours or days). Both wind and solar show high short-term volatility.
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Wind power: operating costs?

Opex for a wind power project is typically $40/kW-year, or around 1-2c/kWh. Around $25/kW is maintenance, suggesting the wind maintenance market is now worth >$20bn per year. The best route to lower cost is up-scaling turbines and wind assets.
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FACTS of life: upside for STATCOMs & SVCs?

Wind and solar have so far leaned upon conventional power grids. But larger deployments will increasingly need to produce their own reactive power; controllably, dynamically. Demand for STATCOMs & SVCs may thus rise 30x, to over $25-50bn pa. This 20-page note outlines the opportunity and who benefits?
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Glass fiber: what upside in the energy transition?

Glass fiber makes up 50% of a wind turbine blade, lightens vehicles and insulates homes for 30-70% energy savings. Hence we see demand rising 3.5x in the energy transition. To appraise the opportunity, this 13-page note assesses the market, costs, CO2 intensity and leading companies.
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Glass fiber: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of producing glass fiber, the key component in fiberglass for wind turbines; but also a light-weight insulating material. Marginal cost is likely $2,000/ton, with a CO2 intensity of 1.5 tons/ton. Some Chinese product is 50% cheaper but 2x more CO2 intensive.
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Wind turbines: screen of resin and polymer specialists?

This data-file tabulates details for 20 companies that make epoxy- or polyurethane resins and adhesives, especially those that feed into the construction of wind turbines. We think there are 5 public companies ex-China with 5-35% exposure to this sub-segment of the wind industry.
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Renewables: can they ramp up faster?

How fast can wind and solar accelerate, especially if energy shortages persist? This 11-page note reviews the top ten bottlenecks. Seven value chains will tighten enormously in the coming years. Paradoxically, however, ramping renewables could exacerbate near-term energy shortages.
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Windy physics: how is power of a wind turbine calculated?

This data-file is an overview of wind power physics. Specifically, how is the power of a wind turbine calculated, in MW, as a function of wind speed, blade length, blade number, rotational speed (in RPM) and other efficiency factors (lambda). A large, modern offshore wind turbine will have 100m blades and surpass 10MW power outputs.
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Small-scale wind turbines: leading companies?

This screen compares the offerings of a dozen small-scale wind turbine providers, with power ratings below 30kW, for residential energy generation. Costs range from $1,000-6,000/kW. The three key challenges are performance, relaibility and cost.
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Carbon fiber: the miracle material?

Energy transition will catapult carbon fiber demand upwards from today’s 120kTpa baseline, across wind turbine blades, more efficient vehicles and hydrogen tanks. Hence this 16-page note explores opportunities, economics, CO2 intensity and leading companies. 
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Carbon fiber: energy economics?

Carbon fiber production costs are estimated at $25/kg in this data-file, in order to generate a 10% IRR at a new world-scale carbon fiber plant. Energy economics are broken down across the value chain. The production process will likely emit 30 tons of CO2 per ton of carbon fiber if powered by a mixture of gas and electricity.
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Offshore wind: will costs follow Moore’s Law?

Some commentators expect the levelized costs of offshore wind to fall another two-thirds by 2050. The justification is some eolian equivalent of Moore’s Law. Our 16-page report draws five contrasts. Wind costs are most likely to move sideways, even as the industry builds larger turbines. Implications for developers are explored.
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Siemens Gamesa: giant wind turbine breakthroughs?

Siemens Gamesa is a leader in offshore wind, pushing the boundaries towards a 14MW turbine with an incredible 222m rotor diameter. Our main debate from reviewing its patents is whether the engineering challenges of large turbines is consistent with deflation expectations.
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Moore’s law: causes and new energies conclusions?

Moore’s law entails that computing performance doubles every 18-months. Which has held true since 1965. This exponential progress has been driven by three positive feedback loops. Can these same feedback loops unlock a similar trajectory for new energies costs? We find mixed evidence.
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Inter-correlations between offshore wind farms?

This data-file examines the correlations between different wind farms’ generation rates. The output from individual wind farms is 67% correlated on average, at any given point in time, and as high as 90% with a 100km x 100km area. Auto-correlation was also high, as windy/non-windy periods can last 2-10 days.
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Prevailing wind: new opportunities in grid volatility?

UK wind power has almost trebled since 2016. But its output is volatile, now varying between 0-50% of the total grid. Hence this 14-page note assesses the volatility, using granular, hour-by-hour data from 2020, to outline which backup opportunities are best-placed.
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Floating offshore wind: what challenges?

A dozen challenges for floating offshore wind projects are ranked in this 4-page note, by reviewing 50 recent patents across the industry. We model these challenges are likely to double capex and levelized costs, compared with traditional offshore wind. The potential for floating offshore wind is also location dependent.
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Floating offshore wind: what challenges?

This data-file ranks the greatest challenges for the floating offshore wind industry, by reviewing 50 recent patents, filed by leading companies. The challenges are relatively immutable. They likely double capex and levelized costs, compared with traditional offshore wind.
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Nuclear Research

Japan: nuclear restart tracker?

This data-file looks through 17 major nuclear plants in Japan with 45GW of operable capacity, covering the key parameters and restart news on each facility. Japan’s nuclear restart had ramped output back to 97TWH pa by 2025, and may rise by a further 80 TWH by 2030, to meet targets for 20% nuclear in the country’s generation mix.
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Global uranium supply-demand?

Our global uranium supply-demand model sees the market adequately supplied in 2026-30, even as demand ramps from 170M lbs pa to 210M lbs pa in 2030. However, our project risking is generous and there may be supply disruptions. What implications for broader power markets, decarbonization ambitions, and uranium prices?
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Global nuclear capacity: by reactor, by country, over time?

Global nuclear capacity, by reactor, by country, and over time, are built up in this data-file, by reviewing the construction, operation and shutdowns of 800 global nuclear reactors. After running sideways for 20-years, at 2,800 TWH pa, global nuclear generation rises at c3% pa to 2030, and c3% pa to 2050, reaching 5,600 TWH pa.
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Steam generation: capex costs?

Steam power generation requires boilers, turbines, condensers and generators, which are often integrated into a steam generation “island” at coal, nuclear and CCGT power plants. Steam generation capex costs are estimated at $1,300/kW in this data-file, based on sampling component costs across 35 past projects.
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Nuclear equipment manufacturers: company screen?

Nuclear equipment manufacturers are captured in this company screen, covering 20 companies, with $10bn pa of revenues, c10% EBIT margins, and a 5% average sales exposure to nuclear components. Our notes also capture key details, equipment specializations, and recent focuses of each company.
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Deep Fission: next-gen nuclear technology?

Deep Fission is designing a next-generation nuclear reactor, placing small modular reactors in 1-mile-deep boreholes, which provide exceptional containment, and may eliminate up to 80% of the surface costs of large nuclear plants. We find strong inherent safety features and can de-risk c50% lower costs than large fission reactors via the Deep Fission technology.
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Nuclear Power Project Economics

This data-file models the costs of nuclear power project, based on technical papers and past projects around the industry. An up-front capex cost of $6,000/kW might yield a levelized cost of 15c/kWh. But 6-10c/kWh is achievable via a renaissnace in next-generation nuclear.
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Nuclear uprates: capex costs?

Nuclear uprates could add 5-10GW to the US’s 100GW nuclear fleet, simply by running existing reactors harder or upgrading their equipment. The capex costs of nuclear uprates are tabulated in this data-file, across a dozen case studies, ranging from $200 – $7,000/kW. Does this position uprates ahead of SMRs on the nuclear cost curve?
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Nuclear SMRs: grown ups?

Can small modular reactors (SMRs) reignite growth in the nuclear industry, by halving capex to $3,000-4,000/kW, thus reducing levelized costs of zero-carbon electricity to 8-10 c/kWh? This 18-page report presents five considerations around SMR costs, to help understand the risks of persistently high capex requirements. We still see gas and solar dominating future load growth.
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Next-generation nuclear companies: future fission and fusion?

This data-file screens c30 next-generation nuclear companies at the cutting edge of fission and fusion technology. The median one employs 100 people, is developing a 150MWe reactor, and could reach commerciality by 2035. But how has this landscape of companies progressed in the past few years?
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Radioactivity of materials: energy, Rare Earths and nuclear?

This data-file captures the radioactivity of materials: ranging from 10Bq/kg in sea-water, to 100Bq/kg in humans, to 300Bq/kg in Brazil nuts (the most radioactivity food), to 1,000Bq/kg in coal ash, 2,000Bq/kg in copper tailings, 0.5-1MBq/kg in Rare Earth concentrates and tailings, to 4M Bq/kg in uranium ore, 0.2 bn Bq/kg in nuclear fuel and 10-100 trn Bq/kg in spent nuclear fuel.
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US nuclear generation by company?

US nuclear generation of 800 TWH pa has come from 94 reactors, at 65 nuclear plants, owned by c50 companies, with 102 GW of current capacity. This data-file breaks down the industry by plant and by owner/operator, and assesses the restart potential of shuttered nuclear plants.
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Uranium enrichment: by country, by company, by facility?

Global uranium enrichment by country, by company and by facility are estimated in this data-file, covering the 155M lbs pa uranium market. The data-file includes a build-up of enrichment facilities (ranked by SWU capacity), notes on each enrichment company and an attempt to map the world’s uranium production to where it is enriched and ultimately consumed.
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Uranium mining: the economics?

This data-file disaggregates the marginal costs of a new uranium mine, as a simple function of uranium prices, ore grade, capex and opex. Our base case is a marginal cost of $60/lb for a 10% IRR. Cash costs range from $7-40/lb. But lower ore grades can easily require $90/lb uranium to justify investment.
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Oklo: fast reactor technology?

Oklo is a next-generation nuclear company, based in California, recently going public via SPAC at a $850M valuation, backed by Sam Altman, of Y-Combinator and OpenAI fame. Oklo’s fast reactor technology absorbs high energy neutrons in liquid metal and targets ultimate costs of 4c/kWh. What details can we infer from assessing Oklo’s patents, and can we de-risk the technology in our roadmap to net zero?
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Reaching criticality: nuclear re-accelerates?

400 GW of nuclear reactors produce 2,800TWH of zero carbon electricity globally each year. But the numbers have been stagnant for two decades. This is now changing. This 14-page note explains why. We expect a >3% CAGR through 2030, and hope for a 2.5x ramp through 2050. A ‘nuclear renaissance’ helps the energy transition.
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X Energy: nuclear fuel breakthrough?

X-Energy is a next-generation nuclear company, progressing a demonstration project in Washington State, due to start up in 2027. The key innovation is using TRISO fuels, whose manufacturing is locked up with a concentrated patent library. Long-term costs are suggested at 6c/kWh.
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TerraPower: nuclear breakthrough?

TerraPower is one of the most active next-generation nuclear companies, with funding from Bill Gates, and 600 engineers working towards the first, 345MWe Natrium reactor before 2030. We could not entirely de-risk a “breakthrough” due to the breadth and novelty of its patents.
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Terrestrial Energy: small modular reactor breakthrough?

Terrestrial Energy is a next-generation nuclear fission company, aiming to build a small modular reactor: specifically a 2 x 195MWe Integral Molten Salt Reactor with ultimate costs below $3,000/kWe, yielding levelized costs of 5-7c/kWh. 80 patents lock up 8 core innovations in a high-quality library that helps de-risk the potential.
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General Fusion: magnetized fusion breakthrough?

General Fusion is developing a magnetized target fusion reactor, compressing plasma via high-pressure pistons. It hopes to commercialize 100-200MWe fusion reactors with 5-6.5c/kWh levelized costs of electricity in the late 2020s. Our patent de-risks several innovations. Although complexity is high and we note four residual risks for the technology.
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Commonwealth Fusion: nuclear fusion breakthrough?

Our patent review found CFS to have a high-quality patent library, of specific, intelligible, commercially-minded innovations to densify the magnets that would confine plasma in a tokamak for nuclear fusion. Specific details, and minor hesitations are in the data-file. 
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Nuclear fusion: what are the challenges?

Nuclear fusion could provide a limitless supply of zero-carbon energy from the 2030s onwards. The goal of this 20-page note is simply to understand the challenges for fusion reactors, especially deuterium-tritium tokamaks. Innovations need to improve EROI, stability, longevity and costs.
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NuScale: small modular reactor breakthrough?

NuScale is developing a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR), producing 77MWe of power. It is the first SMR design to win US regulatory approval and the first plant is being built in Romania for 2028. NuScale’s patents scored well on our framework.
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Back-stopping renewables: the nuclear option?

Nuclear power can backstop much volatility in renewables-heavy grids, for costs of 15-25c/kWh. This is at least 70% less costly than large batteries or green hydrogen, but could see less wind and solar developed overall. Our 13-page note reviews the opportunity.
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Power plants: cold starts and ramp rates?

This data-file aggregates the ramp-up rates of power generation sources, as they start up from “cold”, and then as they ramp up (in MW per minute). Hydro and simple cycle gas turbines are fastest, followed by CCGTS, coal and nuclear.
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Nuclear power: what role in the energy transition?

Uranium markets could be 50-75M lbs under-supplied by 2030. This deficit is deeper than other commodities in our roadmap to net zero. Demand is driven by China, constructing reactors for 50-70% less than the West, yielding zero carbon power at 6-8c/kWh. This 18-page note presents the outlook and screens uranium miners.
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Uranium production: by company and by country?

Global uranium production is broken down by company and by country in this data-file, which also screens 20 of the most noteworthy companies in uranium mining, the reserves, production and operational details. This matters as another contracting cycle is underway in the uranium industry, due to rising power demand, next-gen nuclear, but also supply disruptions linked to geopolitics.
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Batteries Research

Energy storage: top conclusions into batteries?

Thunder Said Energy is a research firm focused on economic opportunities that can drive the energy transition. Our top ten conclusions into batteries and energy storage are summarized below, looking across all of our research.
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Sodium ion batteries: comparing costs versus LFP?

Sodium is 1,000x more abundant than lithium in the Earth’s crust and 99% cheaper. So will sodium ion batteries disrupt lithium ion batteries? Not until lithium carbonate prices treble to $40/kg. Or novel SIB electrode materials emerge. This 16-page SIB deep-dive de-risks our lithium market outlook.
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Renewables plus batteries: co-deployments over time?

More and more renewables projects are being co-developed with battery storage. On average, projects in 2026-30 that codeploy batteries will supplement each MW of renewables capacity with 0.8MW of battery capacity, which in turn offered 4-hours of energy storage per MW of battery capacity, for 3.3 MWH of energy storage per MW of renewables.
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CATL: sodium ion battery breakthrough?

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) is a Chinese battery manufacturer, HQ’d in Fusian, founded in 2011, with >30,000 employees. It may produce as many as one-third of all the lithium ion batteries in the world. This data-file assesses whether it has made a breakthrough in sodium ion batteries.
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Grid-scale battery costs: the economics?

Grid-scale batteries are envisaged to store up excess renewable electricity and re-release it later. Grid-scale battery costs are modeled at 17c/kWh in our base case, which is the ‘storage spread’ that a LFP lithium ion battery must charge to earn a 10% IRR off c$1,000/kW installed capex costs. Other batteries can be compared in the data-file.
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Energy storage: to infinity and beyond?

Lithium ion batteries are now so deeply entrenched that we doubt any new electrochemistry can supplant them. This 23-page report asks where are the opportunities now in batteries? Could any futuristic batteries with quasi-infinite capacity, such as quantum batteries, power inter-seasonal storage or long-distance aviation?
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Battery integrators: leading companies in BESS?

A dozen companies act as the “battery integrators” for 90% of all grid-scale battery storage systems (BESS), packaging lithium ion cells into fully functional, containerized modules, which can be deployed and grid-connected. 2025 economics included over $30bn of revenues, $250/kWh selling prices and 8.5% operating margins. But competition is intensifying.
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Thermal energy storage: cost model?

This data-file captures the costs of thermal energy storage, buying renewable electricity, heating up a storage media, then releasing the heat for industrial, commercial or residential use. Our base case requires 13.5 c/kWh-th for a 10% IRR using molten salt or sand, and as little as 5c/kWh-th when using low-cost graphite/petcoke modules.
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Global lithium production: by project, by country, by resource?

Global lithium production, by project, by country, by resource type, and over time, are aggregated in this data-file, by tabulating details of each project. There is spare capacity in 2026, especially from Australian mine projects, but the current project pipeline sugggests a 20-30% market deficit in 2030-35.
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Can solar provide round-the-clock power for data-centers?

This 15-page report models the costs of powering AI data centers, and other round-the-clock loads, using only solar and batteries, plus a “penalty” of 100-600 c/kWh for unmet demand. In some locations, solar+batteries will out-compete gas in the future? But an ocean of excess power gets thrown out?
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Lithium: global demand forecasts?

This data-file estimates global lithium demand amidst the ramp of electric vehicles, the rise of AI/robotics, and integrates with our oil market models. The data are disaggregated across electric vehicles, new vehicle types, consumer electronics, grid-scale batteries and conventional material uses.
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Electric vehicle charging: the economics?

An electric vehicle charging station typically needs to charge 20-25 c/kWh, to earn a 10% return on its up-front capex costs, as it buys power for 10c/kWh and sells it on to electric vehicles with 10-50% utilization rates. Larger, fast-chargers seem most economic. Especially where retail revenues support the economics of EV-charging.
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Battery energy storage systems: capacity forecasts?

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) encompass grid-scale batteries, and smaller commercial and residential battery storage systems. Both are captured in this 100-line data-file, globally, by region, over time, in annual terms, in cumulative terms, in GWH terms and in GW terms.
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Solar+battery co-deployments: cost profiles?

Solar+battery co-deployments allow a large and volatile solar asset to produce a moderate-sized and non-volatile power output, during 40-50% of all the hours throughout a calendar year. The smooth output is easier to integrate with power grids, including with a smaller grid connection. The battery will realistically cycle 100-300 times per year.
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Supercapacitors: the economics?

The costs of supercapacitors are tabulated in this data-file, with a typical system storing 15-seconds of electricity, for a capex cost around $10,000/kWh of energy but just $40/kW of power. Hence for short-duration, but very frequent and fast-acting voltage regulation, supercapacitors may be highly competitive with lithium ion batteries and flywheels. Numbers can be stress-tested in this model.
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Economics of flywheels: fast frequency response?

The economics of flywheels can be stress-tested in this data-file, requiring a $500/kW fee for fast-frequency response, to generate a 10% IRR on c$10,000/kWh of capex costs, on a typical flywheel plant with around 15-minutes of energy storage. The rise of renewables and AI increasingly requires adding inertia to power grids. Flywheels may be one solution.
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Battery gigafactory capex costs?

This data-file captures battery Gigafactory capex costs, by region, by chemistry, by company and over time, by looking across a sample of 40 major projects. Capex costs average $80/kWh-pa of capacity. Each GWH pa of capacity is associated with 70 full-time employees.
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Peak loads: can batteries displace gas peakers?

Peak loads in power grids are caused by heatwaves (in the US) and cold snaps (in Europe), which last 2-14 days. This 16-page report finds that very large batteries would be needed to ride through these episodes, costing 2-20x more than gas peakers. But the outlook differs interestingly between the US vs Europe.
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Power grid bottlenecks: flattening the curve?

Will persistent grid bottlenecks de-rail electricity growth? This 18-page report explores using batteries and smart energy systems to reduce the need for new power lines. This option can be surprisingly economical, when back-tested on real-world load profiles. Hence we are upgrading our battery outlook.
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Battery swapping: off to the races?

Battery swapping has seen a sudden surge of interest, especially for cars in China, some heavy vehicles, and two-wheelers throughout emerging markets. Can the theme re-accelerate EVs? This 19-page report finds many advantages, controversies over costs, and profiles leading companies.
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Solar plus batteries: the case for co-deployment?

This 9-page study finds unexpectedly strong support for co-deploying grid-scale batteries together with solar. The resultant output is stable, has synthetic inertia, is easier to interconnect in bottlenecked grids, and can be economically justified. What upside for grid-scale batteries?
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Lithium mining and upgrading: the economics?

This data-file quantifies the economics of producing lithium carbonate from spodumene in mined pegmatites. We estimate a price of $12,500/ton lithium carbonate price is likely needed for a 10% IRR in today’s China-heavy value chain, which emits 50kg of CO2 per kg of lithium.
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Lithium ion battery volumes by chemistry and use?

The lithium ion battery market reached 900GWH in 2023, representing 7x growth in the past half-decade since 2018, and 20x growth in the past decade since 2013. Volumes treble again by 2030. This data-file breaks down global ithium ion battery volumes by chemistry and be end use. A remarkable shift to LFP is underway, and NMC sales may even have peaked.
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LFP batteries: cathode glow?

LFP batteries are fundamentally different from incumbent NMC cells: 2x more stable, 2x longer-lasting, $15/kWh cheaper reagents, $5/kWh cheaper manufacturing, and $25/kWh cheaper again when made in China. This 15-page report argues LFP will dominate future batteries, explores their costs, and draws implications for EVs and renewables.
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Lithium ion battery costs: materials and manufacturing?

Lithium ion battery costs range from $40-140/kWh, depending on the chemistry (LFP vs NMC), geography (China vs the West) and cost basis (cash cost, marginal cost and actual pricing). This data-file is a breakdown of lithium ion battery costs, across c15 materials and c20 manufacturing stages, so input assumptions can be stress-tested.
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Pumped hydro: generation profile?

Pumped hydro facilities can provide long-duration storage, but the utilization rate is low, and thus the costs are high, according to today’s case study within the Snowy hydro complex in Australia. Tumut-3 can store energy for weeks-months, then generate 1.8 GW for 40+ hours, but it is only charging/dischaging at 12% of its nameplate capacity.
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Grid-scale battery operation: a case study?

Grid-scale batteries are not simply operated to store up excess renewables and move them to non-windy and non-sunny moments, in order to increase reneawble penetration rates. Their key practical rationale is providing short-term grid stability to increasingly volatile grids that need ‘synthetic inertia’. Their key economic rationale is arbitrage. Numbers are borne out by our case study into battery operations.
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Compressed air energy storage: costs and economics?

Our base case estimates for Compressed Air Energy Storage costs require a 26c/kWh storage spread to generate a 10% IRR at a $1,350/kW CAES facility, with 63% round-trip efficiency, charging and discharging 365 days per year. Our numbers are based on top-down project data and bottom up calculations, both for CAES capex (in $/kW) and CAES efficiency (in %) and can be stress-tested in the model. What opportunities?
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Electrochemistry: redox potential?

Batteries, electrolysers and cleaner metals/materials value chains all hinge on electrochemistry. Hence this 19-page note explains the energy economics from first principles. The physics are constructive for lithium and next-gen electrowinning, but perhaps challenge green hydrogen aspirations?
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Electric vehicle: battery life?

Electric vehicle battery life will realistically need to reach 1,500 cycles for the average passenger vehicle, 2,000-3,000 cycles after reflecting a margin of safety for real-world statistical distributions, and 3,000-6,000 cycles for higher-use commercial vehicles. This means lithium ion batteries may be harder to displace with novel chemistries?
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Thermal energy storage: heat of the moment?

Thermal energy storage will outcompete other batteries and hydrogen for avoiding renewable curtailments and integrating more solar? Overlooked advantages are discussed in this 21-page report, plus a fast-evolving company landscape. What implications for solar, gas and industrial incumbents?
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Renewable grids: solar, wind and grid-scale battery sizing?

How much wind, solar and/or batteries are required to supply a stable power output, 24-hours per day, 7-days per week, or at even longer durations? This data-file stress-tests different scenarios, with each 1MW of average load requiring at least 3.5MW of solar and 3.5MW of lithium ion batteries, for a total system cost of at least 18c/kWh, and up to 800c/kWh.
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Thermal energy storage: leading companies?

This data-file is a screen of thermal energy storage companies, developing systems that can absorb excess renewable electricity, heat up a storage medium, and then re-release the heat later, for example as high-grade steam or electricity. The space is fast-evolving and competitive, with 17 leading companies progressing different solutions.
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Redox flow batteries: for the duration?

Redox flow batteries have 6-24 hour durations and require 15-20c/kWh storage spreads. They will increasingly compete with lithium ion batteries in grid-scale storage. Does this unlock a step-change for peak renewables penetration? Or create 3-30x upside for total global Vanadium demand? This 15-page note is our outlook for redox flow batteries.
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Electrochemistry: battery voltage and the Nernst Equation?

What determines the Voltage of an electrochemical cell, such as a lithium ion battery, redox flow battery, a hydrogen fuel cell, an electrolyser or an electrowinning plant? This note explains electrochemical voltages, from first principles, starting with Standard Potentials and the Nernst Equation.
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Redox flow batteries: costs and capex?

Redox flow battery costs are built up in this data-file, especially for Vanadium redox flow. In our base case, a 6-hour battery that charges and discharges daily needs a storage spread of 20c/kWh to earn a 10% IRR on $3,000/kW of up-front capex. Longer-duration redox flow batteries start to out-compete lithium ion batteries for grid-scale storage.
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Battery cathode active materials and manufacturing?

Lithium ion batteries famously have cathodes containing lithium, nickel, manganese, cobalt, aluminium and/or iron phosphate. But how are these cathode active materials manufactured? This data-file gathers specific details from technical papers and patents by leading companies such as BASF, LG, CATL, Panasonic, Solvay and Arkema.
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Solvay: lithium ion battery binders and additives?

Solvay is a chemicals company with growing exposure to battery materials, especially the PVDF binders that hold together active materials in the electrodes. But also increasingly in electrolyte solvents, salts and additives. Interestingly, our patent review finds optimizations of this overall system can improve the longevity and energy density of batteries, which may also lead to consolidation across the battery supply chain?
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Lithium ion batteries: energy density?

Today’s lithium ion batteries have an energy density of 200-300 Wh/kg. I.e., they contain 4kg of material per kWh of energy storage. Technology gains can see lithium ion batteries’ energy densities doubling to 500Wh/kg in the 2030s, trebling to 750 Wh/kg by the 2040s, and the best possible energy densities are around 1,250 Wh/kg. This is still 90% below hydrocarbons, at 12,000 Wh/kg.
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Electric vehicles: breaking the ICE?

Electric vehicles are a world-changing technology, 2-6x more efficient than ICEs, but how quickly will they ramp up to re-shape global oil demand? This 14-page note finds surprising ‘stickiness’. Even as EV sales explode to 200M units by 2050 (2x all-time peak ICE sales), the global ICE fleet may only fall by 40%. Will LT oil demand surprise to the upside or downside?
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Power Grids and Power Electronics Research

Electrical service agreements: how real are those data centers?

Are speculative data center projects, 80% of which will never get built, inflating future load growth forecasts? This 18-page report reviews evidence from land developer returns, recent PUC deliberations and evolving terms in Electrical Service Agreements (ESAs).
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Power grids: opportunities in the energy transition?

Power grids move electricity from the point of generation to the point of use, while aiming to maximize the power quality, minimize costs and minimize losses. Broadly defined, global power grids and power electronics investment must step up 5x in the energy transition, from a $750bn pa market to over $3.5trn pa. But this theme gets woefully overlooked. This also means it offers up some of the best opportunities in energy transition.
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Heat potential: what if AI can load-shift hot water tanks?

Residential heat is 13% of global energy. So what if AI could optimize residential electric heating? This 16-page report finds that load-shifting hot water tanks can unlock 1.5-8.5% additional flexibility in grids and make air source heat pumps the lowest cost option for heat in Europe, eclipsing gas-combi boilers, saving $300 per household per year?
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Residential heating energy from first principles?

This data-file models residential heating energy from first principles, taking an example in Northern Europe, for a house with 150m2 floor space, requiring 15MWth of heat (space heating and hot water), which is met by consuming 5MWH-e pa in a heat pump, costing $1,500/year. But this can also be optimized.
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Global power: what grid mix is most stable?

Energy importing countries value stable electricity prices. Hence this 18-page report evaluates the optimal grid mix, after taking stability into account? Recent gas price volatility will encourage further diversification for developed world importers, while coal+solar could dominate emerging world growth. Our forecasts are revised.
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Global electricity: by source, by use, by region?

Global electricity supply-demand is disaggregated in this data-file, by source, by use, by region, from 1990 to 2050, triangulating across all of our other models in the energy transition, and culminating in over 50 fascinating charts, which can be viewed in this data-file. Global electricity demand rises 3x by 2050 in our outlook.
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Renewables+gas LCOEs versus standalone gas turbines?

Levelized costs of electricity depend as much on the system being electrified as the energy sources used to electrify it. This data-file captures solar+gas LCOEs (in c/kWh), when meeting different load profiles, as a function of solar capex (in $/kW), gas prices (in $/mcf), and the relative utilization of solar vs gas.
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Electrical appliances: will AI accelerate efficiency gains?

500,000 AI-related patents were filed in 2025. But electrical appliance manufacturers were particularly active. Hence we used AI ourselves, in this 14-page report, to home in on 50 key patents, which will improve efficiency and flexibility of electrical appliances using AI – in HVAC, lighting, refrigerators, TVs, etc. – which make up 50% of the grid.
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Wind and solar: curtailments over time?

Wind and solar curtailments now average 8% across different grids that we have evaluated in this data-file, and have generally been rising over time, especially in 2024-25. The key reason is grid bottlenecks. Grid expansions are crucial for wind and solar to continue expanding.
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Reserve margins: by ISO and over time?

Reserve margins across major ISOs in the US power grid average 26% in 2026, are seen declining to 10% in the next decade by NERC, and turning negative in regions such as PJM and MISO. Surging power demand and resource retirements are the culprits, although may not unfold as feared. This data-file tabulates reserve margin forecasts, by ISO region, and over time.
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US electricity demand growth: anywhere from 1-3%?

US electricity demand growth is a crucial debate. It affects everything. To bound the uncertainty, we assessed twenty input variables, and ran a Monte Carlo, in this 16-page report. Our new base case sees +2.0% pa demand growth to 2035. Our 90% confidence interval is 1-3% pa. What implications for gas and power?
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US electricity demand: by sector, by use, over time?

US electricity sales reached 4,430 TWH in 2024, rising +3% YoY, and bringing the trailing ten-year CAGR to 1% pa. The current breakdown is 37% residential, 37% commercial, 26% industrial. All three are now growing. To help understand load growth, this data-file is a breakdown of US electricity demand by sector, by use and over time, with forecasts to 2050.
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MOSFETs: energy use and power loss calculator?

MOSFETs are fast-acting digital switches, used to transform electricity, across new energies and digital devices. MOSFET power losses are built up from first principles in this data-file, averaging 2% per MOSFET, with a range of 1-10% depending on voltage, switching, on resistance, operating temperature and reverse recovery charge.
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Duck curves: US power price duckiness over time?

In solar-heavy grids, power prices trough around mid-day, then ramp up rapidly as the sunset. This price distribution over time is known as the duck curve. US power prices are getting 25-30% more ducky each year, based on some forms of measurement. Power prices are clearly linked to the instantaneous share of wind/solar in grids.
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Grid connection costs: wind, solar, power, data centers?

Cost of grid connection is shaping up to be a major bottleneck for the continued acceleration of new energies. A good baseline is to expect $100-300/kW of grid inter-connection costs, or $3-10/kW-km, over a typical distance of 10-70 km. But the requirement to fund network upgrade costs can push grid connections to cost more than developing renewables projects themselves?!
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DC-DC power converters: efficiency calculations?

DC-DC power converters are used to alter the voltage in DC circuits, such as in wind turbines, solar MPPT, batteries and digital/computing devices. This data-file is a breakdown of DC-DC power converters’ electrical efficiency, which will typically be around 95%. Losses are higher at low loads. We think there will be upside for increasingly high-quality and efficient power electronics as part of the energy transition.
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Leading companies in transformer monitoring?

Leading companies in transformer monitoring, and broader substation monitoring around the T&D network, are screened in this data-file. Real-time sensors and AI may reduce unplanned outages and repair costs by 30-60%, while most optimistically, high-quality monitoring can help flow 15% more power through existing infrastructure.
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Gas turbine manufacturing: eliminative materialism?

Can we model the supply and demand for gas turbines? This 21-page report presents our attempt. We ultimately see gas turbine manufacturing expansions outpacing demand growth. AI is also helping to expand. However, ‘accelerated orders’ may have distorted order books in 2025.
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Dynamic line ratings: can AI debottleneck the grid?

The carrying capacity of the power grid is not fixed, but varies with wind speeds and ambient temperatures. AI is now helping to enable Dynamic Line Ratings, unlocking 10-100%+ more capacity on some lines, effectively for free. This 18-page report explores the implications. Could DLRs avoid $100-300bn pa in future global grid capex, and thus debottleneck the rise of AI itself?
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Dynamic line ratings: companies and case studies?

This data-file is a screen of 30 leading companies in dynamic line ratings (DLR), deploying sensors and/or software to optimize the carrying capacity of transmission and distribution lines in real time. The average case study spans 750km and uplifts T&D capacity by 34%. Deployment, is inflecting in the AI era.
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Gas generation: timing the cycle?

Gas-fired power generating capacity is in a classic capital cycle. This 16-page report evaluates when the cycle will peak. Gas power demand wants to rise at 3.8% pa through 2050. But high CCGT prices may delay EM growth, bring in new entrants, and substitution towards reciprocating engines.
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US power generation under development over time?

An all-time record of 260GW of new power generation capacity is currently under development in the US in 4Q25, enough to expand the US’s 1.3TW power grid by almost 15%. This data-file tracks US power generation under development, as a leading indicator for gas turbine, wind, solar and battery demand. The pipeline suggests tight power markets from 2025 may start to soften in 2026.
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AI power delivery: hit by a bus?

Providing power to AI data centers was a key theme in 2025. But distributing power within them may be just as important for 2026+. More power-dense AI chips require upgrading in-rack buses from 54V to 800V. This 14-page report explores the challenges and opportunities of future AI power delivery architectures.
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Global power price volatility tracker?

The volatility of power grids almost trebled in the decade from 2013-15 to 2023-2025, but actually eased back from 2022 to 2025. This data-file tracks the percentile-by-percentile distributions of power prices, each year, in seven major grid regions (Texas, California, US MidWest, Australia, the UK, Spain, and Germany) as an index of global power price volatility.
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Power cables: carrying capacity and loss rates?

This data-file calculates the power carrying capacity of power cables, plus the resistive losses of power cables. Both are modeled as a function of their voltage, current density, copper and/or aluminium content, resistance and connection type. Underlying data are drawn from data we have tabulated on over 100 conductors, their ratings and costs.
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Power cuts: how frequent are grid disruptions?

This data-file aggregates significant US power grid disruptions, based on data from the DOE. On average, there are 250 power cuts per year in the United States, lasting for a median average of 5-hours, and affecting a median average of 80,000 customers. 20% of the power cuts last longer than 1-day. 15% affect more than 1M customers. Power cuts are becoming more prevalent in some regions through 2024.
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Power markets: classical economics?

This 15-page report outlines how wholesale power markets work, which helps to understand four emerging controversies. Wholesale power prices are governed by classic microeconomics: day-ahead markets clear at the intersection of downward sloping demand curves and upward sloping supply curves.
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Electricity pricing: time-of-use tariffs by region?

Time-of-use tariffs mean end customers’ electricity prices are not fixed, but vary across time. ToU tariffs can reduce peak power demand by 10% on average. This data-file tracks the share of customers with time-of-use tariffs, by region, and then focuses in on interesting countries.
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Power electronic capital goods: margins over time?

This data-file tracks power electronic capital goods company margins over time, rising from 10% in 2000-2010, to 12% in 2010-20 and then inflecting to a record 16% in 2025. The increase is mostly driven by higher- and medium-voltage categories, linked to re-accelerating load growth in the United States. Details on each company are in the data-file.
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Industrial heat pump costs: economic model?

Industrial heat pump costs typically average 5c/kWh-th, when generating round-the-clock heat from 6c/kWh electricity, with a 3.5x Coefficient of Performance, and achieving a 60ºC heat lift. Our models do not yet show heat pumps, energized by excess renewables, outcompeting gas heat, especially for larger or higher-temperature applications. Costs can be stress-tested in this model.
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US electricity customers: sales, pricing, metering, load-shifting?

Characteristics of 164M US utility customers, consuming 4,000 TWH pa of electricity, are broken down in this data-file. The data help to explain the recent return to load growth in the US, but also show the pace of deployment of smart meters, demand response, load-shifting and real-time pricing tariffs, amongst residential, commercial and industrial customers.
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Electric vehicle charging: the economics?

An electric vehicle charging station typically needs to charge 20-25 c/kWh, to earn a 10% return on its up-front capex costs, as it buys power for 10c/kWh and sells it on to electric vehicles with 10-50% utilization rates. Larger, fast-chargers seem most economic. Especially where retail revenues support the economics of EV-charging.
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AI training energy: breaking the power laws?

An argument for runaway energy use by AI is that performance follows a power law: incrementally better performance requires exponentially more model parameters, training data and compute. But this 13-page note finds evidence for greater efficiency gains, and considers whether AI scaling laws are set to slow down, meaning less energy consumption?
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US load growth: electrical grounding?

What if US load growth disappoints from here, as the AI era progresses? We have previously published forecasts for +3% pa to 2030. Others are at 5-10% pa. Hence today’s 16-page report asks what assumptions are embedded in our outlook. There are six key risks. Our downside case is as low as +1% pa load growth, which could largely be met behind the meter?
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Microgrids: plug-and-play?

Microgrids are accelerating due to perceived power grid bottlenecks and rising reliability requirements, especially at AI data-centers. Hence this 17-page report explores how microgrids work, what they cost, where they make economic sense, and finds microgrid opportunities, especially with an increasingly plug-and-play supply chain.
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ELCCs: reliability of power sources?

ELCC denotes the Effective Load Carrying Capacity of power generation, illustrating how reliably that capacity will be available during times when grids are strained. ELCCs are highest for nuclear, gas generation and coal; lower for batteries, hydro and offshore wind; lowest for onshore wind and solar. ELCC by power source varies, however.
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Microgrids: the economics?

Microgrid economics are captured in this data-file. A 20c/kWh levelized cost of electricity is needed to generate a 10% IRR on a typical $5,000/kW system, sourced by solar, batteries and gas generation, plus controllers, switchgear and instrumentation.
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Costs of demand response: Voltus case studies?

Demand response, aka load shifting, or virtual power plants, keep power grids in balance by curtailing non-essential loads, during times that would otherwise require ramping up peaker plants, or when grids simply do not have enough capacity overall. The costs of demand response are estimated at c$60/kW/year, across 25 case studies in this data-file, for a net present 20-year cost of $500/kW. This is less than batteries or peaker plants and supports the potential for smart grids.
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Dunkelflaute: how big do the batteries need to be?

How big would the batteries need to be, to ride through the biggest dunkelflautes that occur each year, in renewable-heavy grids? This 8-page report has gathered data for Spain, the UK and California. 30 GWH of storage per GW of renewables would help ride through wind-driven dunkelflautes. But shutting thermal generation still seems unfeasible. Thus grids grow ever larger.
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Renewable-heavy grids: total system costs?

Renewables can have similar LCOEs as conventional generation sources. Yet ramping renewables to c50% of a developed world power grid inflates total system costs by at least 50%. This is because renewables require back-ups, additional T&D and power electronics. This 16-page report aims to quantify the total system costs of renewable-heavy grids, and their implications.
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Hydrogen Research

Hydrogen: overview and conclusions?

We think the best opportunities in hydrogen will be to decarbonize gas at source via blue and turquoise hydrogen, displacing ‘black hydrogen’ that currently comes from coal, and to produce small-scale feedstock on site via electrolysis for select industries. Others see green hydrogen as a cornerstone of the future energy system. We think there may be better options elsewhere.
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Heavy truck costs: diesel, gas, electric or hydrogen?

Heavy truck costs are estimated at $0.14 per ton-kilometer, for a truck typically carrying 15 tons of load and traversing over 150,000 miles per annum. Today these trucks consume 10Mbpd of diesel and their costs absorb 4% of post-tax incomes. Hydrogen trucks would be 45-75% more costly, but from 2026, we are starting to see competitive electric truck costs.
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Green hydrogen: the economics?

We have modelled the economics of a green hydrogen project, electrolysing water using renewable energy. An H2 price of $8/kg ($60/mcfe) is required to earn a 10% return. Costs data are captured. The most challenging input variable is not capex cost or efficiency, but utilization rate, if the project is to be truly green.
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Fuel Cell Power Project Economics

This data-file models the economics of constructing a new fuel-cell power project: generating electricity from grey, blue or green hydrogen. The model is based on technical papers and past projects around the industry. Economics look challenging. Our base case estimate is a 24c/kWh incentive price.
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Methane reforming: costs of grey hydrogen, costs of blue hydrogen?

This data-file captures the economics of blue hydrogen production via reforming natural gas: either steam-methane reforming or auto-thermal reforming. Costs and operating parameters are compiled from technical papers. Blue hydrogen can be cost-competitive with CCS, while overall costs are most sensitive to gas prices.
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Vehicle depreciation rates: EVs versus ICEs?

This data-file quantifies the cost per mile of vehicle ownership across different categories by correlating second hand car prices with their accumulated mileage. Hybrids and regular passenger cars are most economical. SUVs and EVs are 2x more expensive. Hydrogen vehicles depreciate fastest and will have lost over 90% of their value after 100,000 miles.
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Air Products: ammonia cracking technology?

Can we de-risk Air Products’s ammonia cracking technology in our roadmaps to net zero, which is crucial to recovering green hydrogen in regions that import green ammonia from projects such as Saudi Arabia’s NEOM. We find strong IP in Air Products’s patents. However, we still see 15-35% energy penalties and $2-3/kg of costs in ammonia cracking.
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Natural hydrogen: going for gold?

Vast quantities of hydrogen are produced in the Earth’s subsurface, via the Serpentinization of iron-containing Peridotite rocks. Gold, white and orange hydrogen variations aim to harness this hydrogen. This 19-page note explores opportunities, costs and challenges for harvesting H2 out of natural seeps, hydrogen reservoirs or fraccing/flooding Peridotites.
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Cemvita Factory: microbial breakthroughs?

Cemvita is a private biotech company, based in Houston, founded in 2017. It has isolated and/or engineered more than 150 microbial strains, aiming to valorize waste, convert CO2 to useful feedstocks, mine scarce metals (e.g., direct lithium extraction) and “brew” a variant of gold hydrogen from depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. This data-file is our Cemvita Factory technology review, based on exploring its patents.
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Gold hydrogen: the economics?

Natural hydrogen could be recovered from the Earth’s subsurface, with costs ranging from $0.3-10/kg, and CO2 intensities of 0.2-5.0 kg/kg. This data-file models the economic costs of gold hydrogen, and its sub-variants such as white hydrogen and orange hydrogen.
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Bright green hydrogen from biomass gasification?

Woody biomass can be converted into clean hydrogen via gasification. If the resultant CO2 is sequestered, each ton of hydrogen may be associated with -20 tons of CO2 disposal. The economies of hydrogen from biomass gasification require $11/kg-e revenues for a 10% IRR on capex of $3,000/Tpa of biomass, or lower, with CO2 disposal incentives.
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Nafion membranes: costs and hydrogen crossover?

Perfluorinated sulfonate (PFSA) membranes, such as Nafion, are the crucial enabler for PEM electrolyzers, fuel cells and other industrial processes. The market is worth $750M pa. The key challenges are costs, longevity and hydrogen crossover, which are tabulated in this data-file.
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Electrochemistry: redox potential?

Batteries, electrolysers and cleaner metals/materials value chains all hinge on electrochemistry. Hence this 19-page note explains the energy economics from first principles. The physics are constructive for lithium and next-gen electrowinning, but perhaps challenge green hydrogen aspirations?
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Density of gases: by pressure and temperature?

The density of gases matters in turbines, compressors, for energy transport and energy storage. Hence this data-file models the density of gases from first principles, using the Ideal Gas Equations and the Clausius-Clapeyron Equation. High energy density is shown for methane, less so for hydrogen and ammonia. CO2, nitrogen, argon and water are also captured.
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Hydrogen evolution: outlook for industrial gases?

110MTpa of hydrogen is produced each year, emitting 1.3GTpa of CO2. We think the market doubles to 220MTpa by 2050. This is c60% ‘below consensus’. Decarbonization also disrupts 80% of today’s asset base. Our outlook varies by region. This 17-page note explores the evolution of hydrogen markets and implications for industrial gas incumbents?
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Global hydrogen supply-demand: by region, by use & over time?

Global production of hydrogen is around 110MTpa in 2023, of which c30% is for ammonia, 25% is for refining, c20% for methanol and c25% for other metals and materials. This data-file estimates global hydrogen supply and demand, by use, by region, and over time, with projections through 2050.
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Plug power: green hydrogen breakthroughs?

Our Plug Power technology review is drawn from the company’s recent patent filings, which offer some of the most detailed disclosures we have ever seen into the manufacturing of PEM electrolysers and fuel cells, underlying catalyst materials, membranes and their manufacturing. One patent seems like a breakthrough. Other patents candidly presented challenges.
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MIRALON: turquoise hydrogen breakthrough?

MIRALON is an advanced material, being commercialized by Huntsman, purifying carbon nanotubes from the pyrolysis of methane and also yielding turquoise hydrogen. This data-file reviews MIRALON technology, patents, and a strong moat. Our model sees 15% IRRs if Huntsman reaches a medium-term cost target of $10/kg MIRALON and $1/kg H2.
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Bloom Energy: solid oxide fuel cell technology?

This data-file reviews Bloom Energy’s solid oxide fuel cell technology. What surprised us most was a candid overview of degradation pathways of solid oxide fuel cells, a focus on improving the longevity of fuel cells, albeit this sometimes seems to be via heavy uses of Rare Earth metals, and increasing complexity. The patents do suggest a moat around Bloom Energy fuel cell technology.
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Hydrogen reformers: SMR versus ATR?

Blue hydrogen value chains are gaining momentum. Especially in the US. So this 16-page note contrasts steam-methane reforming (SMR) versus autothermal reforming (ATR). Each has merits and challenges. ATR looks excellent for clean ammonia. While the IRA creates CCS upside for today’s SMR incumbents, across industrial gases, refining and chemicals.
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US hydrogen production: by facility and by company?

10MTpa of hydrogen is produced in the US, of which 40% is sold by industrial gas companies, 20-25% is generated on site at refineries, 20% at ammonia plants and 15-20% in chemicals/methanol. This datafile breaks down US hydrogen production by facility. Owners of existing steam methane reforming units may readily be able to capture CO2 and benefit from CO2 disposal credits under the US Inflation Reduction Act?
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Industrial gas separation: swing producers?

Swing Adsorption separates gases, based on their differential loading onto zeolite adsorbents at varying Pressures. The first PSA plant goes back to 1966. Today, tens of thousands of PSA plants purify hydrogen, biogas, polymers, nitrogen/oxygen and possibly in the future, can capture CO2? This 16-page note explores the technology, costs, challenges, companies.
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Adiabatic flame temperature: hydrogen, methane and oil products?

At an idealized, 100% stoichiometric ratio, the adiabatic flame temperature for natural gas is 1,960ºC, hydrogen burns 300ºC hotter at 2,250ºC and oil products burn somewhere in between, at around 2,150ºC. The calculations show why hydrogen cannot always be dropped into an existing turbine or heat engine.
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Topsoe: autothermal reforming technology?

Topsoe autothermal reforming technology aims to maximize the uptime and reliability of blue hydrogen production, despite ultra-high combustion temperatures from the partial oxidation reaction, while achieving high energy efficiency, 90-97% CO2 capture and
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Combustion fuels: density, ignition temperature and flame speed?

The quality of a combustion fuel comes down to its physical and chemical properties. Hence the purpose of this data-file is to aggregate data into different fuels’ energy content (kg/m3), energy density (kWh/kg, kWh/gal), flash point (ºC), auto-ignition point (ºC) and flame speed (m/s, cm/s). Conclusions about high quality fuels follow.
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Blue ammonia: options strategy?

Blue ammonia can economically decarbonize the fertilizer industry, using low-cost natural gas; with options to decarbonize combustion fuels in the future. This report covers where we see the best opportunities, as reforms to the 45Q have already kick-started a 20MTpa boom of new US projects.
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Sabatier process: synthetic natural gas costs?

The Sabatier process combines CO2 and hydrogen to yield synthetic natural gas using a nickel catalyst at 300-400C. A gas price of $100/mcf is needed for a 10% IRR, energy penalties exceed 75% and CO2 abatement cost is $2,000/ton?
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NEL: green hydrogen technology review?

NEL is a green hydrogen technology company, headquartered in Oslo, listed on the Oslo Børs since 2014, and employing 575 people. It has manufactured 3,500 electrolyser units, going back to 1927, historically weighted to alkaline electrolysers, and increasingly focused on PEMs and hydrogen fuelling stations. This NEL technology review explores its patents.
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Energy policy: unleashing new technologies?

Does unprecedented policy support inherently de-risk new technology? This 10-page note is a case study. The Synthetic Fuels Corporation was created by the US Government in 1980. It was promised $88bn. But it missed its target to unleash 2Mbpd of next-generation fuels by 1992. There were four challenges. Are they worth remembering in new energies today?
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Costs of hydrogen from coal gasification?

What are the costs of hydrogen from coal gasification? This model looks line-by-line, across different plant configurations, aggregating data from technical papers. Black hydrogen costs $1-2/kg. But CO2 intensity is very high, as much as 25 tons/ton. It can possibly be decarbonized resulting in semi-clean hydrogen costing c$2.5/kg.
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Green hydrogen: can electrolysers run off renewables?

What degradation rate is expected for a green hydrogen electrolyser, if it is powered by volatile wind and solar inputs? This 15-page note reviews past projects and technical papers. 5-10% pa degradation rates would raise green hydrogen costs by $1/kg. Avoiding degradation justifies higher capex, especially on power-electronics and even batteries?
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Hydrogen: what GWP and climate impacts?

Hydrogen is an indirect GWP, as it breaks down in the atmosphere over 1-2 years, increasing the lifespan of other GHGs, such as methane. So what is hydrogen GWP versus methane? 1 ton of atmospheric H2 most likely causes 11x more warming than 1 ton of CO2 (the number for methane is 34x). Eight conclusions follow.
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Pressure ratings: industrial and energy processes?

The purpose of this data-file is to chart the typical pressures of industrial processes and energy processes, as a useful reference. We are all used to 1 atmosphere of pressure, which is 1.0125 bar, 0.10125 MPa and 14.7 psi. But what pressures do industrial processes use?
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Monolith: turquoise hydrogen breakthrough?

Monolith claims it is the “only producer of cost effective commercially viable clean hydrogen today” as it has developed a proprietary technology for methane pyrolysis. But overall this was not one of our most successful patent screens. Some specific question marks are noted in the data-file.  
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Turquoise hydrogen from methane pyrolysis: economics?

Turquoise hydrogen is produced by thermal decomposition of methane at high temperatures, from 600-1,200◦C. Costs can beat green hydrogen. This data-file quantifies the economics (in $/kg), how to generate 10% IRRs, possible capex costs, and remaining challenges for commercialization.
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Electro-fuels: start out as a billionaire?

Electro-fuels are hydrocarbons produced from renewable power, CO2 and water. They are reminiscent of the adage that ‘the fastest way to become a millionaire is to start out as a billionaire then found an airline’. Because all you need for 1boe of these zero-carbon fuels is 2-3 boe of practically free renewable energy.
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Green hydrogen electrolysers in Europe: a database?

This data-file derives conclusions into green hydrogen electrolysers in Europe, based on c240 distinct projects. The market is shifting away from smaller alkaline electrolyers to super-giant PEMs and SOECs. Key controversies are visibly emerging around power sources and hydrogen uses.
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Power-to-liquids: companies commercializing electro-fuels?

This data-file summarizes the details of c15 companies aiming to commercialise low-carbon electro-fuels, using power-to-liquids technologies, and their progress to-date. The average company was founded in 2015, with 5 patents and 15 employees. Although this is skewed towards 3-4 leaders.
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Power-to-liquids: the economics?

Liquid transport fuels with almost no CO2 emissions could be created from renewable energy, by electrolysing water and CO2, then combining the hydrogen and CO, e.g., via Fischer Tropsch. This simple models stress tests the economics. Our base case estimates are for costs between $400-600/bbl ($10-14/gallon).
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Methanol: the next hydrogen?

Methanol is becoming more exciting than hydrogen as a clean fuel to help decarbonize transport. Specifically, blue methanol and bio-methanol are 65-75% less CO2-intensive than oil products, while they already earn 10% IRRs at c$3/gallon prices. Unlike hydrogen, it is simple to transport and integrate methanol with pre-existing vehicles.
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Biofuels Research

Biofuel technologies: an overview?

Biofuels are currently displacing 3.5Mboed of oil and gas. But they are not carbon-free, and their weighted average CO2 emissions are only c50% lower. This data-file breaks down the biofuels market across seven key feedstocks, to help identify which opportunities can scale for the lowest costs and CO2, versus others that require further technical progress.
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Global biofuel production: by region, by liquid fuel?

Global liquid biofuel production ran at 3.3Mbpd in 2025, of which c60% is ethanol, c30% is biodiesel and c10% is renewable diesel. 65% of global production is from the US and Brazil. Our forecasts for global liquid biofuel production reach 3.8Mbpd by 2030 and 5Mbpd by 2050, with 75% of the growth in renewable diesel.
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Renewable diesel: the economics?

Renewable diesel economics are captured in this data-file, requiring a price of $4.5-5/gallon (about $200/bbl), for a green diesel plant costing $35M/kbpd to generate a 10% IRR while hydroprocessing $1,000/ton feedstocks. Please download the data-file to stress-test renewable diesel economics, biodiesel economics and input costs.
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Sustainable aviation fuel: flight path?

As things stand, we argue Europe will be forced to scale back its SAF targets, due to Sustainable Aviation Fuel costs and land constraints. However, our 17-page report asks what could improve the outlook. Specifically, what yields, costs and other properties would we need to see from an oil crop to get excited about unlocking cost-competitive HEFA-SAF? And could any novel crops, such as Pongamia or Carinata, take flight?
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Oil crops: the economics?

The costs of oil crops, a crucial input for bio-diesel and SAF, will usually range from $900-1,200/ton, in order to generate acceptable 6-15% IRRs for producers. This translates into $3-4/gallon in feedstock costs. These oil crops also likely embed over 2 kg/gallon of CO2 intensity. The economics of oil crops can be stress-tested in this data-file, especially for palm oil, rapeseed oil (aka canola oil) and novel biofuel crops.
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Waste-to-energy: levelized costs of electricity?

A typical waste-to-energy plant, without subsidies, must charge 16c/kWh to generate a 10% IRR off of c$7,000/kW in capex costs, plus another 14c/kwh-equivalent of revenues from avoided landfilling and metals recovery. This economic model covers waste-to-energy levelized costs of electricity.
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Costs of biogas upgrading to biomethane?

Costs of biogas upgrading into biomethane are estimated at $7/mcf off of capex cost of $400/ton, in this data-file. The largest contributor to total costs is carbon filtering, to remove siloxanes, VOCs and H2S, which we have modelled from first principles, at $2/mcfe. Underlying data into biogas compositions and impurities are also tabulated for reference.
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Sugar to ethanol: value in volatility?

Sugar cane is an amazing energy crop, yielding 70 tons per hectare per year, of which 10-15% is sugar and 20-25% is bagasse. Crushing facilities create value from sugar, sugar-to-ethanol and cogenerated power. This 11-page note argues that more volatile electricity prices could halve ethanol costs or raise cash margins by 2-4x.
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Sugar to ethanol: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of ethanol production, as a biofuel derived from sugar. A 10% IRR requires $1-4/gallon ethanol, equivalent to $0.25-1/liter, or $60-250/boe. Economics are most sensitive to input sugar prices. Net CO2 intensity is at least 50% lower than hydrocarbons.
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Sugar production: the economics?

The costs of sugar production are estimated at $260/ton for a 10% IRR at a world-scale sugar refinery, in a major sugar-producing region. Higher returns are achievable at recent world sugar prices, and by valorizing waste streams such as molasses for ethanol and bagasse for cogenerated electricity.
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Global biogas production by country?

Global biogas production has risen at a 10-year CAGR of 3% to reach 4.3bcfed in 2023, equivalent to 1.1% of global gas consumption. Europe accounts for half of global biogas, helped by $4-40/mcfe subsidies. This data-file aggregates global biogas production by country, plus notes into feedstock sources, uses of biogas and biomethane.
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Biogas: the economics?

Biogas costs are broken down in this economic model, generating a 10% IRR off $180M/kboed capex, via a mixture of $16/mcfe gas sales, $60/ton waste disposal fees and $50/ton CO2 prices. High gas prices and landfill taxes can make biogas economical in select geographies. Although diseconomies of scale reward smaller projects?
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Verbio: bio-energy technology review?

Verbio is a bio-energy company, founded in 2006, listed in Germany, producing bio-diesel, bioethanol, biogas, glycerin and fertilizers. The company has stated “we want to be in a position to convert anything that agriculture can deliver to energy”. Our Verbio technology review is based on its patents. We find some fascinating innovations in cold mash ethanol, integrated with biogas production, and making biogas from lignocellulosic feedstock.
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Energy history: how much wood can be cut in a day?

How much wood can be cut in a day? We review 500-years of industrial history. In medieval times, a manorial tenant might have gathered 250kg of fallen branches in a day. A modern feller-buncher is 150x more productive. But a modern energy analyst is little better than a medieval peasant, and harvesting wood as a heating fuel is expensive, inconvenient and risk-prone.
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Crop production: how much does nitrogen fertilizer increase yields?

How much does fertilizer increase crop yields? Aggregating all of the global data, a good rule of thumb is that up to 200kg of nitrogen can be applied per acre, increasing corn crop yields from 60 bushels per acre (with no fertilizer) to 160 bushels per acre (at 200 kg/acre). But the relationship is logarithmic, with diminishing returns.
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Crop production: what CO2 intensity?

The CO2 intensity of producing corn averages 0.23 tons/ton, or 75kg/boe. 50% is from N2O emissions, a powerful greenhouse gas, from the breakdown of nitrogen fertilizer. Producing 1 kWh of food energy requires 9 kWh of fossil energy.
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Bio-coke: energy economics?

Bio-coke is a substitute for coal-coke in steel-making and other smelting operations. We model it will cost c$450/ton, c50% more than coal-coke, but saves 2 – 2.5 tons/ton of CO2. Abatement costs can be as low as $70/ton. Although not always, and there are comparability issues.
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World food production: energy breakdown by crop by country?

World food production runs at 10 bn tons per year, equivalent to 25,000 TWH of primary energy, or 7,500 calories per person per day. Of this total, 30% is fed to animals, 30% is wasted, 5% is converted to biofuels and 2% is used in consumer products. Humans eat the remaining 2,500 calories per person per day.
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Palm oil: what CO2 intensity?

Global palm oil production runs at 80MTpa, for food, HPC and bio-fuels. Carbon intensity is 1.2 tons CO2e per ton of crude palm oil, excluding land use impacts, and 8.0 tons/ton on a global basis including land use impacts. This means once a bio-fuel has more than c35% palm oil in its feedstock, it is likely to be higher carbon than conventional diesel.
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Biofuels: the best of times, the worst of times?

How will food and energy shortages re-shape liquid biofuels? This 11-page note explores four questions. Could the US re-consider its ethanol blending to help world food security? Could rising cash costs of bio-diesel inflate global diesel prices to $6-8/gal? Will renewable diesel expansion be dialed back? What outlook for each biofuel in the energy transition?
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Wood use: what CO2 credentials?

The carbon credentials of wood are not black-and-white. They depend on context. This 13-page note draws out the numbers and five key conclusions. They count against deforestation, in favor of using waste wood, in favor of wood materials (with some debate around paper) and strongly in favor of natural gas.
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Landfill gas: rags to riches?

Methane emissions from landfills account for 2% of global CO2e. c70% of these emissions could easily be abated for c$5/ton, simply by capturing and flaring the methane. Going further, low cost uses of landfill gas in heat and power can also make good sense. But vast subsidies for landfill gas upgrading or RNG vehicles may not be cost-effective. 
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Landfill gas: the economics?

We estimate that a typical landfill facility may be able to capture and abate 70% of its methane leaks for a CO2-equivalent cost of $5/ton. Other landfill gas pathways get more complex and expensive. Raw and unprocessed landfill gas can be economical to commercialize at a cost of $2-4/mcfe.
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Danimer: bio-plastics breakthrough?

Danimer Scientific is a producer of PHA, a biodegradable plastic feedstock. PHA still has commercial challenges in its processing, mechanical properties and 4-5x higher costs than conventional plastics. Yet our patent review finds Danimer has made some specific, intelligible innovations, earning a solid score of 3.5 on our technology framework.
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LanzaTech: biofuels breakthrough?

LanzaTech aspires to “take waste carbon emissions and convert them” into sustainable fuels (and bio-plastics) with a >70% CO2 reduction. We have assessed its patents but concluded we cannot yet de-risk the CO2-to-fuels pathway in our energy transition models.
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Origin Materials: bio-plastics breakthrough?

Origin Materials went public via SPAC in February-2021, as it was acquired by Artius Acquisition Inc at a valuation of $1.8bn. Its ambition is to use wood residues to create carbon-negative plastics, cost-competitively with petroleum products. This data-file outlines our conclusions from reviewing patents.
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Ethanol: hangover cures?

Could new technologies reinvigorate corn-based ethanol? This 12-page  note assesses three options. We are constructive on combining CCS or CO2-EOR with an ethanol plant, which yields a carbon-negative fuel. But costs and CO2 credentials look more challenging for bio-plastics or alcohol-to-jet fuels. 
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Ethanol-to-ethylene: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of producing bio-ethylene by dehydration of ethanol. We estimate an ethylene price of $1,600/Tpa is required for a 10% IRR, which is almost 2x higher than a conventional ethane cracker. In a best case scenario, costs could fall below $1,000/ton.
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Ethanol: getting wasted?

30M acres of US croplands are used to grow corn for ethanol, with a CO2 abatement cost of $200/ton. However, if these same acres were reforested, they could absorb 2x more CO2, while farmers in the mid-West could have higher earnings. Hence could US biofuels be disrupted?
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Ethanol from corn: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of producing ethanol from corn. Our base case requires a price of $1.6/gallon of ethanol for a 10% IRR on a new greenfield plant, equivalent to $2.4/gallon gasoline. 40% of the US corn crop is diverted into biofuels, but the rationale is marginal.
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Biogas-to-liquids: decarbonize aviation fuels?

This 15-page report evaluates a pathway for sustainable aviation fuels, feeding biogas into a Fischer-Tropsch reactor. Bio-GTL will likely cost 3x more than conventional jet fuel, for a 75% reduction in CO2, giving an abatement cost of $550/ton. We still prefer nature-based carbon offsets to decarbonize aviation.
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Biochar: burnt offerings?

Biochar is a miraculous material, improving soils, enhancing agricultural yields and avoiding 1.4kg of net CO2 emissions per kg of waste biomass. IRRs surpass 20% without CO2 prices or policy support. Hence this 18-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Biomass to biochar: the economics?

Biochar is a carbon negative material, according to our accounting, locking as much as 0.5kg of CO2 into soils per kg of dry biomass inputs. It can also be highly economical, with a base case IRR of 25%. Our full model allows you to stress-test input assumptions.
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Leading companies in biochar?

This screen tabulates details of almost twenty leading companies in the production and commercialization of biochar. The average company was founded in 2012, has 8 employees and 1.2 patents, showing an early-stage and competitive space.
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Next-generation plastics: bioplastic, biodegradable, recycled?

This data-file captures 17 plastic products derived from mechanical recycling, biologically-sourced feedstocks or that is bio-degradable. The ‘greenest” plastics are c30% lower in CO2 than conventional plastics, but around 2x more costly.
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Methanol production: the economics?

This model captures the economics and CO2 intensity of methanol production in different chemical pathways. We find exciting potential for bio-methanol and blue methanol. These are logistically simple substitutes for oil products, but with lower carbon content. Full cost breakdowns can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Biomass and BECCS: what future in the transition?

20% of Europe’s renewable electricity currently comes from biomass, mainly wood pellets, burned in facilities such as Drax’s, 2.6GW Yorkshire plant. But what are the economics and prospects for biomass power as the energy transition evolves? This 18-page analysis leaves us cautious.
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Biomass power: costs, levelized costs and BECCS?

This data-file captures the economics of producing wood pellets, generating electricity from biomass, and potentially also building a further CCS facility to yield ‘carbon negative power’ (which is nevertheless more CO2 intensive than burning gas!). Our numbers are backstopped by industry data, including 340 US biomass plants.
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Biofuels: better to bury than burn?

The global bioethanol industry could be disrupted by a carbon price. Somewhere between $15-50/ton, it becomes more economical to bury the biofuel crop, rather than convert it into biofuels. This would remove 8x more CO2 per acre, at a lower total cost. Ethanol mills and blenders would be displaced.
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Biomass to biofuel, or biomass for burial?

Greater decarbonization at a lower cost is achievable by burying biomass (such as corn or sugarcane) rather than converting it into bio-ethanol. This model captures the economics. Detailed costs and CO2 comparisons are shown under different iterations. 
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