New Energies Research

Our new energies research explores economic opportunities to drive the energy transition. Our definition of new energies is that they are not derived from the combustion of extracted resources. Solar radiation is directly converted to electricity in a photovoltaic cell. Wind and hydro power harness moving masses of fluids to drive turbines. Nuclear energy derives heat from fissioning heavy atoms; possibly in the future, from fusing light atoms. Generally these new energies yield electricity directly (i.e., no heat engines are involved). Electricity can be the highest-grade form of energy. But electricity also requires resilient power grids, sophisticated power electronics and possibly also energy storage via batteries. Achieving an energy transition requires moving ‘Heaven and Earth’, to de-bottleneck bottlenecks in power transmission (heaven) and mined metals and materials (earth). We also consider hydrogen and biofuels among new energies.

Solar Research

Electromagnetic energy: Planck, Shockley-Queisser, power beaming?

Electromagentic radiation is a form of energy, exemplified by light, infrared, ultraviolet, microwaves and radiowaves. What is the energy content of light? How much of it can be captured in a solar module? And what implications? We answer these questions by explaining the Planck Equation and Shockley-Queisser limit from first principles.
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Vapor deposition: leading companies?

This data-file is a screen of leading companies in vapor deposition, manufacturing the key equipment for making PV silicon, solar, AI chips and LED lighting solutions. The market for vapor deposition equipment is worth $50bn pa and growing at 8% per year. Who stands out?
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Global solar: absorption spectrum?

How much new solar can the world absorb in a given year? And are core markets such as the US now maturing? This 15-page note refines our solar forecasts using a new methodology. Annual solar adds will likely plateau at 50-100% of total electricity demand growth in most regions. What implications and adaptation strategies?
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Silver pastes for solar contacts?

50 companies make conductive silver pastes to form the electrical contacts in solar modules. This data-file tabulates the compositions of silver pastes based on patents, averaging 85% silver, 4% glass frit and 11% organic chemicals. Ten companies stood out, including a Korean small-cap specialist.
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LONGi: technology review and solar innovations?

This data-file is our LONGi technology review, based on recent patent filings. The work helps us to de-risk increasingly efficient solar modules, a growing focus on perovskite-tandem cells, and low-cost solar modules, with simple manufacturing techniques that may ultimately displace bottlenecked silver from electrical contacts. Key conclusions in the data-file.
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Solar module production by company?

The world produced over 400GW of solar modules in 2023, which is up 10x from a decade ago. This data-file breaks down solar module production by company and over time, comparing the companies by solar module selling prices ($/kW), margins (%), efficiency (%), transparency, and technology development.
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Solar inverters: companies, products and costs?

This data-file tracks some of the leading solar inverter companies and inverter costs, efficiency and power electronic properties. As China now supplies 85% of all global inverters, at 30-50% lower $/W pricing than Western companies, a key question explored in the data-file is around price versus quality.
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Semiconductor physics: pièce de resistance?

Semiconductors underpin solar panels, electric vehicles and electronics. Hence this 20-page note aims to explain semiconductor physics from first principles: their conductivity and resistance, their use in devices, plus implications for materials value chains and the energy transition itself?
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Semiconductors: conductivity calculations?

This datafile calculates the conductivity and resistivity of semiconductors from first principles, based on their bandgap, doping, electron and hole mobility, temperature, the Fermi-Dirac distribution and the Effective Density of States. Put in any inputs you like to compute the resistance of silicon, germanium or GaAs.
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Mitsui Chemicals: solar encapsulants?

Solar encapsulants are 300-500μm thick films, protecting solar cells from moisture, dirt and degradation; electrically insulating them at 4 x 10^15 Ωcm resistivity; and yet allowing 90% light transmittance. The industry is moving away from commoditized EVA towards specialized blends of co-polymers and additives. Is there a growing moat around Mitsui Chemicals' solar encapsulants?
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Global polysilicon production capacity?

Polysilicon is a highly pure, crystalline silicon material, used predominantly for photovoltaic solar, and also for 'chips' in the electronics industry. Global polysilicon capacity is estimated to reach 1.65MTpa in 2023, and global polysilicon production surpasses 1MTpa in 2023. China now dominates the industry, approaching 90% of all global capacity.
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New energies: the age of materials?

Over the past decade, costs have deflated by 85% for lithium ion batteries, 75% for solar and 25% for onshore wind. Now new energies are entering a new era. Future costs are mainly determined by materials. Bottlenecks matter. Deflation is slower. Even higher-grade materials are needed to raise efficiency. This 14-page note explores the new … Continue reading "New energies: the age of materials?"
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Solar costs: a breakdown over time?

Utility-scale solar costs have deflated by 75% in the past decade to around $1,000/kW. 60% has been the scale-up to mass manufacturing, and 40% has been rising efficiency of solar modules. Materials costs now look likely to dominate future costs and their trajectory. And advanced materials can help double efficiency again from here? Who benefits?
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HJT solar: Indium summer?

HJT solar modules are accelerating, as they are highly efficient, and easier to manufacture. But HJT could also be a kingmaker for Indium metal, which is used in transparent and conductive thin films (ITO). Our forecasts see primary Indium use rising 4x by 2050. Indium is 100x rarer than Rare Earth metals. It could be a bottleneck. What implications?
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Vacuum pumps: company screen?

The global market for vacuum pumps is worth $15bn per year, with growing importance for making semiconductors, solar panels and AI chips. This data-file reviews ten leading companies in vacuum pumps, including one European-listed capital goods leader, a European pure-play and a Japanese-listed pure-play.
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Renewables: how much time to connect to the grid?

Is the power grid becoming a bottleneck for the continued acceleration of renewables? The median approval time to tie a new US power project into the grid has climbed by 30-days/year since 2001, and doubled since 2015, to over 1,000 days (almost 3-years) in 2021. Wind and solar projects are now taking longest. This data-file looks for de-bottlenecking opportunities, and wonders about changing terms of trade in power markets.
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Solar surface: silver thrifting?

Ramping new energies is creating bottlenecks in materials. But how much can material use be thrifted away? This is a case study of silver intensity in the solar industry, which halved in the past decade, and could halve again. Conclusions matter for solar companies, silver markets, other bottlenecks.
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Model of losses in a solar cell: surface, emitter and shading?

This data-file calculates the losses in a solar cell from first principles. Losses on the surface of the cell are typically c4%, due to contact resistance, emitter resistance and shading. Sensitivity analysis suggests there may be future potential to halve silver content in a solar cell from 20g/kW to 10g/kW without materially increasing the losses beyond 4%.
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Solar capacity: growth through 2030 and 2050?

Forecasts for future solar growth have an unsatisfyingly uncertain range, varying by 3x. Hence this 15-page note discusses the future of solar. Solar capacity additions likely accelerate 3.5x by 2030 and 5x by 2040. But this creates bottlenecks, including for seven materials; and requires >$1trn pa of additional power grid capex plus $1trn pa of power electronics capex.
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Ethylene vinyl acetate: production costs?

Ethylene vinyl acetate is produced by reacting ethylene with vinyl acetate monomer. This data-file estimates production costs, with a marginal cost between $1,500-2,000/ton, and a total embedded CO2 intensity of 3.0 tons/ton. EVA comprises 5% of the mass of a solar panel and could be an important solar bottleneck.
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Solar: energy payback and embedded energy?

What is the energy payback and embedded energy of solar? We have aggregated the consumption of 10 different materials (in kg/kW) and around 10 other energy-consuming line-items (in kWh/kW). Our base case estimate is 2.5 MWH/kWe of solar and an energy payback of 1.5-years. Numbers and sensitivities can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Solar volatility: tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies?

This 20-page note quantifies the statistical distribution of short-term volatility at solar power plants. Solar output typically flickers downwards by over 10%, around 100 times per day. Can industrial processes truly be ‘powered by solar’? What opportunities will arise to buffer the volatility?
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Solar volatility: second by second output data?

We have aggregated the volatility and power drops across an entire year of second-by-second solar data. Each day typically sees 100 volatility events where output drops by over 10%, and 10 events where output drops by over 70 events. Volatility also varies day by day.
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Solar volatility: interconnectors versus batteries?

The solar energy reaching a given point on Earth’s surface varies by +/- 6% each year. These annual fluctuations are 96% correlated over tens of miles. And no battery can economically smooth them. Solar heavy grids may thus become prone to unbearable volatility. Our 17-page note outlines this important challenge, and finds that the best solutions are to construct high-voltage interconnectors and keep power grids diversified.
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Solar variability: how much does solar energy vary by year?

This data-file aggregates the average annual volatility of solar (and wind) resources across ten locations, mainly cities, in the United States. Annual volatility of incoming solar energy reaching ground level tends to vary by +/- 6% per year, is 96% correlated across different locations within that city, and 50-70% correlated with other cities in the same region.
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Power transmission: inter-connectors smooth solar volatility?

Can large-scale power transmission smooth renewables' volatility? To answer this question, this horrible 18MB data-file aggregates 20-years of hour-by-hour solar insolation arriving at four cities in the US. The volatility in year-by-year can be halved by a single inter-connector.
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Energy security: volcanos versus solar panels?

Every 30-years on average, a giant volcano erupts, ejecting >10km3 of debris, including aerosols that dim the sun and temporarily cool the planet by 0.5-1C. After Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, US solar insolation fell by 20% in 1992. What implications for global energy security and energy transition?
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Solar contacts: silver bullet?

The front contacts in today’s solar cells are made of screen-printed silver, absorbing 11% of 2021’s silver market. Silver can be substituted with copper, but manufacturing is c5x more costly. So we expect a silver spike, then a switch. This 16-page note explains our outlook, and who benefits?
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Manufacturing methods: an overview?

An of overview of manufacturing methods is given in this data-file. Costs are 70% correlated with energy intensity, ranging from well below 0.3 MWH/ton to well above 7MWH/ton. The lowest cost techniques take place at huge throughput in the mining industry, while the most intricate are used in semiconductor.
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Solar trackers: efficiency improvements?

Trackers re-position solar panels to face the sun, as it arcs across the sky, day-by-day, season-by-season, due to the Earth's 23.5-degree tilt. Solar tracker efficiency improvements typically range from 20-40%. Capex cost increases are c20%. Thus 40-90% of utility solar now uses trackers.
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TOPCon: maverick?

A new solar cell is vying to re-shape the PV industry, with 2-5% efficiency gains and c25-35% lower silicon use. This 13-page note reviews TOPCon cells, which will take some sting out of solar re-inflation, tighten silver bottlenecks and may further entrench China’s solar giants.
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Nexwafe: PV silicon breakthrough?

Nexwafe is growing standalone silicon wafers on mono-crystalline seed wafers, with no need to slice ingots. It should improve solar efficiency, materials intensity and CO2 intensity. Our technology review found 60 patent filings and can partly de-risk growth ambitions.
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First Solar: thin film solar breakthrough?

First Solar is a solar manufacturer with capacity to produce 8GW of solar panels per year, using CdTe thin film technology. It has production in the US and uses 60% less energy than photovoltaic silicon. Efficiency is interesting. It is usually lower for CdTe than c-Si, but 70% of First Solar's patents target improvements.
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Wind and solar capacity additions?

This model aims to calculate global wind and solar capacity additions. How many GW of new capacity would be needed for renewables to reach c25% of the global energy mix by 2050, up from 4% in 2021? In total energy terms, this means a 10x scale up, to 30,000 TWH of useful wind+solar energy in 2050. Gross global wind and solar capacity additions will surpass +1,000 GW by 2040.
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Residential solar plus batteries: granular data from Australia?

This data-file contains actual power flows, kindly shared by a client of Thunder Said Energy, who is based in sunny Australia, with 13.5kW of residential solar panels and the 13.5kWh Tesla Powerwall system as a back-up. The system meets an impressive 92% of year-round power needs.
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Renewables: can they ramp up faster?

How fast can wind and solar accelerate, especially if energy shortages persist? This 11-page note reviews the top ten bottlenecks. Seven value chains will tighten enormously in the coming years. Paradoxically, however, ramping renewables could exacerbate near-term energy shortages.
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Solar decline rates: causes and solutions?

The average solar asset declines at 2.5% per year. This 14-page note reviews the causes. We find humid climates moderate Potential Induced Degradation, adding a relative headwind in coastal geographies and floating solar. But an exciting way to mitigate declines is emerging via smaller inverters.
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SolarEdge: solar-electronics breakthrough?

SolarEdge specializes in the power-electronics needed to use solar energy in practical power systems. Our patent review finds a good, but broad array of incremental improvements. They suggest a vast future market in solar-battery energy systems.
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Inter-correlations between solar assets?

This data-file aggregates granular data from seven solar assets around Western Europe over a sample week. Absolute volatility is around 2-4% of nominal capacity every 15-minutes, while inter-correlations range from 60-90% depending on the distance between the different assets.
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Shoals: solar-electronic breakthrough?

Shoals Technologies Group manufactures electrical balance of system solutions for solar energy projects, focused on promoting reliability, safety and ease of installation. Electrical installation costs can be lowered 40%. Our patent review finds a technology moat on 35% EBITDA margins.
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Solar power: decommissioning costs?

This data-file aims to break down the costs of decommissioning solar projects. Gross costs are estimated within a range of $0.03-0.20/W, which is around 3-20% of the initial installation costs. What might help is the ability to re-use old panels, which could possibly even allow a small profit at end-of-life.
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Moore’s law: causes and new energies conclusions?

Moore’s law entails that computing performance doubles every 18-months. Which has held true since 1965. This exponential progress has been driven by three positive feedback loops. Can these same feedback loops unlock a similar trajectory for new energies costs? We find mixed evidence.
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Array Technologies: solar tracking breakthrough?

Array Technologies IPO-ed in October-2020. It manufactures solar tracking systems, supporting 25% of US solar modules installed to date. Its systems can uplift solar generation by 5-25%. we found clear, specific, intelligible patents, back-stopping six out of seven key strengths that have been cited by the company.
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Solar costs: four horsemen?

Solar costs have deflated by an incredible 90% in the past decade to 4-7c/kWh. Some commentators now hope for 2c/kWh by 2050. Further innovations are doubtless. But there are four challenges, which could stifle future deflation or even re-inflate solar. Most debilitating would be a re-doubling of CO2-intensive PV-silicon?
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Photovoltaic silicon: the economics?

This model breaks down the costs of photovoltaic silicon, which explains $0.1/W of a $0.3/W solar panel. There is no way silicon producers are making economic returns below $12.5/kg mono-crystalline polysilicon prices. The average kg of PV silicon in a solar panel is also most likely associated with 140kg of direct CO2.
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Energy Costs of Constructing Solar Assets

This data-file quantifies the energy costs of manufacturing solar panels, based on 10 studies and prior projects. We see the average solar project requiring 5MWH/kW, with a 2.3-year energy payback, a c10x energy-return on energy-invested and CO2-intensity of 90kg/boe (for contrast, average oil is c440kg/boe and average gas is c350kg/boe).
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Solar power: what challenges?

This data-file reviews 70 patents filed by leading solar manufacturers in 2020. We expect double-digit deflation to continue, while solar panels will also gain greater efficiency and longevity. The cutting edge is now in current collectors. Examples and improvements areas are described for each company.
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Solar power: decline rates?

This data-file tabulates the 'decline rates' of 3,200 US solar power plants going back to 2001. The median YoY decline is found to run at 2.5%. However, the data are volatile and variable. Hence this data-file gives full granularity, asset by asset. Decline rates could detract c4pp from the IRRs of future solar projects and stall the ascent of solar power in the 2040s.
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Is there enough land for an energy transition?

This data-file compares the land required by different energy transition technologies, in tons of CO2-equivalents abated per acre per year. Including renewables, nature based solutions, efficiency gains and CCS, we find that decarbonizing a typical developed world country may use up 20-50% of its land.
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Solar water heaters: the economics?

Under our base case estimates, a $130/ton CO2 price is required to achieve passable economics and incentivize rooftop solar heaters. Once installed, solar heaters save around 1T of CO2 per household per year and lower water heating bills by 50-80%. This data-file models the economics.
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Utility-scale solar power: the economics?

This model indicates the economics of a typical utility-scale solar project, as a function of a dozen input assumptions. Our base case shows utility scale can be extremely economic. But incentive prices rise c3c/kWh if solar penetration is already high, and 5-7c/kWh in less sunny locations.
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Solar Energy: Where’s the IP?

We have tabulated 110,000 solar patents. Research peaked in 2012-13, at 11,500 patents/year. It since slowed to c6,000/year. Yet Chinese companies have ramped up to 50% of all the filings, and now comprise 14 out of 2019's top 25 solar patent filers. Majors' patents comprise c0.5% of the total, with one SuperMajor clearly leading.
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Heliogen: concentrated solar breakthrough?

Heliogen has set a new record for concentrated solar power in 2019, generating >1,000C temperatures from an array of c370 hexagonal mirrors, which are precisely controlled using computer vision. This is almost 2x traditional CSP plants. Hence this data-file reviews 21 of Heliogen's patents, finding impressive innovations and ultimate costs.
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Solar Use within the Oil Industry?

20 solar projects are being undertaken across the oil industry, to reduce CO2 emissions. But today's project pipeline will obviate less than 1% of oil industry CO2 by 2025. So momentum must build behind these leading examples, which are: steam-EOR in Oman and California, Solar PV in the Permian, and specific companies such as Occidental, Shell, Eni and other Majors.
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Wind Research

Offshore wind: the lion, the witch and the wardrobe?

This 14-page report re-visits our wind industry outlook. Our long-term forecasts are reluctantly being revised downwards by 25%, especially for offshore wind, where levelized costs have reinflated by 30% to 13c/kWh. Material costs are widely blamed. But rising rates are the greater evil. Upscaling is also stalling. What options to right this ship?
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Offshore wind: capacity by country and forecasts?

Global offshore wind capacity stood at 60GW at the end of 2022, rising at 8GW pa in the past half decade, comprising 7% of all global wind capacity, and led by China, the UK and Germany. Our forecasts see 220GW of global offshore wind capacity by 2030 and 850GW by 2050, which in turn requires a 15x expansion of this market.
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Offshore wind: levelized costs?

This model estimates the levelized cost of offshore wind at 13c/kWh, to generate a 7% IRR off of capex costs of $4,000/kW and a utilization factor of 40-45%. Each $400/kW on capex adds 1c/kWh and each 1% on WACC adds 1.3 c/kWh to offshore wind levelized costs.
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Wind turbine generators: DFIGs or Rare Earth magnets?

Wind turbines can use doubly fed induction generators (DFIGs) or permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSGs) based around Rare Earth metals. This data-file captures the trends in DFIGs vs PMSGs over time by tabulating 40 examples, as turbines have grown larger, and different wind turbine manufacturers have adopted different strategies.
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Offshore vessels: fuel consumption?

This database tabulates the typical fuel consumption of offshore vessels, in bpd and MWH/day. We think a typical offshore construction vessel will consume 300bpd, a typical rig consumes 200bpd, supply vessels consume 150bpd, cable-lay vessels consume 150bpd, dredging vessels consume 100bpd and medium-sized support vessels consume 50bpd. Examples are given in each category, with typical variations in the range of +/- 50%.
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Wind power: energy costs, energy payback and EROEI?

This data-file estimates 3MWH of energy is consumed in manufacturing and installing 1kW of offshore wind turbines, the energy payback time is usually around 1-year, and total energy return on energy invested (EROEI) will be above 20x. These estimates are based on bottom-up modelling and top-down technical papers.
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Renewables: how much time to connect to the grid?

Is the power grid becoming a bottleneck for the continued acceleration of renewables? The median approval time to tie a new US power project into the grid has climbed by 30-days/year since 2001, and doubled since 2015, to over 1,000 days (almost 3-years) in 2021. Wind and solar projects are now taking longest. This data-file looks for de-bottlenecking opportunities, and wonders about changing terms of trade in power markets.
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Offshore wind: installation costs by vessel?

An offshore wind project is likely to cost $2,500/kW, of which c$1,500/kW is turbines and $1,000/kW is offshore installation costs. This data-file aims to estimate the breakdown by vessel type, day-rates and costs per turbine.
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Goldwind: frequency response from wind turbines?

Goldwind is one of the largest wind turbine manufacturers in the world, headquartered in Beijing, and shares are publicly listed. The wind industry is increasingly aiming to mimic the inertia and frequency responses of synchronous power generators. Goldwind has published some interesting case studies. Hence we have reviewed its patents to see if we can find an edge?
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Offshore wind: installation vessels and time per turbine?

Wind turbine installation vessels are estimated to cost $100-500/kW in the breakdown of a typical offshore wind project's capex. Total offshore construction time is around 10 days per turbine. Wind turbine installation vessel use averages around 5 days per turbine. Data from past projects are tabulated in this data-file.
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Cable installation vessels: costs and operating parameters?

This is a database of cable installation vessels for offshore wind and power transmission; tabulating costs (in $M), contract awards (in $/km), capacity (in tons), installation speeds (in meters per hour), power ratings (in MW), crew sizes and positioning systems. There is a paradox over costs.
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Wind volatility: second by second output data?

We have evaluated the second-by-second data on the power output of a 25MW onshore wind farm in Germany. A typical day sees 75 volatility events. Compared to solar, wind power drops slightly less frequently, but more extensively (often >90%) and for longer (often several hours or days). Both wind and solar show high short-term volatility.
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Wind power: operating costs?

Opex for a wind power project is typically $40/kW-year, or around 1-2c/kWh. Around $25/kW is maintenance, suggesting the wind maintenance market is now worth >$20bn per year. The best route to lower cost is up-scaling turbines and wind assets.
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FACTS of life: upside for STATCOMs & SVCs?

Wind and solar have so far leaned upon conventional power grids. But larger deployments will increasingly need to produce their own reactive power; controllably, dynamically. Demand for STATCOMs & SVCs may thus rise 30x, to over $25-50bn pa. This 20-page note outlines the opportunity and who benefits?
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Wind and solar capacity additions?

This model aims to calculate global wind and solar capacity additions. How many GW of new capacity would be needed for renewables to reach c25% of the global energy mix by 2050, up from 4% in 2021? In total energy terms, this means a 10x scale up, to 30,000 TWH of useful wind+solar energy in 2050. Gross global wind and solar capacity additions will surpass +1,000 GW by 2040.
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Glass fiber: what upside in the energy transition?

Glass fiber makes up 50% of a wind turbine blade, lightens vehicles and insulates homes for 30-70% energy savings. Hence we see demand rising 3.5x in the energy transition. To appraise the opportunity, this 13-page note assesses the market, costs, CO2 intensity and leading companies.
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Glass fiber: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of producing glass fiber, the key component in fiberglass for wind turbines; but also a light-weight insulating material. Marginal cost is likely $2,000/ton, with a CO2 intensity of 1.5 tons/ton. Some Chinese product is 50% cheaper but 2x more CO2 intensive.
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Wind turbines: screen of resin and polymer specialists?

This data-file tabulates details for 20 companies that make epoxy- or polyurethane resins and adhesives, especially those that feed into the construction of wind turbines. We think there are 5 public companies ex-China with 5-35% exposure to this sub-segment of the wind industry.
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Renewables: can they ramp up faster?

How fast can wind and solar accelerate, especially if energy shortages persist? This 11-page note reviews the top ten bottlenecks. Seven value chains will tighten enormously in the coming years. Paradoxically, however, ramping renewables could exacerbate near-term energy shortages.
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Windy physics: how is power of a wind turbine calculated?

This data-file is an overview of wind power physics. Specifically, how is the power of a wind turbine calculated, in MW, as a function of wind speed, blade length, blade number, rotational speed (in RPM) and other efficiency factors (lambda). A large, modern offshore wind turbine will have 100m blades and surpass 10MW power outputs.
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Small-scale wind turbines: leading companies?

This screen compares the offerings of a dozen small-scale wind turbine providers, with power ratings below 30kW, for residential energy generation. Costs range from $1,000-6,000/kW. The three key challenges are performance, relaibility and cost.
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Carbon fiber: the miracle material?

Energy transition will catapult carbon fiber demand upwards from today's 120kTpa baseline, across wind turbine blades, more efficient vehicles and hydrogen tanks. Hence this 16-page note explores opportunities, economics, CO2 intensity and leading companies. 
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Carbon fiber: energy economics?

We estimate a marginal cost of $25/kg for a 10% IRR at a new carbon fiber plant. The process will emit 30 tons of CO2 per ton of carbon fiber if powered by gas and electricity. This data-file traces the value chain, the CO2 intensity and the production costs.
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Offshore wind: will costs follow Moore’s Law?

Some commentators expect the levelized costs of offshore wind to fall another two-thirds by 2050. The justification is some eolian equivalent of Moore’s Law. Our 16-page report draws five contrasts. Wind costs are most likely to move sideways, even as the industry builds larger turbines. Implications for developers are explored.
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Siemens Gamesa: giant wind turbine breakthroughs?

Siemens Gamesa is a leader in offshore wind, pushing the boundaries towards a 14MW turbine with an incredible 222m rotor diameter. Our main debate from reviewing its patents is whether the engineering challenges of large turbines is consistent with deflation expectations.
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Moore’s law: causes and new energies conclusions?

Moore’s law entails that computing performance doubles every 18-months. Which has held true since 1965. This exponential progress has been driven by three positive feedback loops. Can these same feedback loops unlock a similar trajectory for new energies costs? We find mixed evidence.
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Inter-correlations between offshore wind farms?

This data-file examines the correlations between different wind farms' generation rates. The output from individual wind farms is 67% correlated on average, at any given point in time, and as high as 90% with a 100km x 100km area. Auto-correlation was also high, as windy/non-windy periods can last 2-10 days.
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Onshore wind: the economics?

The levelized cost of onshore wind is estimated in this economic model, at 5-7c/kWh to generate 5-10% levered IRRs on new wind project costing $1,000-3,000/kW. The model also contains a granular breakdown of wind capex costs, operating costs, and other economic assumptions for wind projects.
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Prevailing wind: new opportunities in grid volatility?

UK wind power has almost trebled since 2016. But its output is volatile, now varying between 0-50% of the total grid. Hence this 14-page note assesses the volatility, using granular, hour-by-hour data from 2020, to outline which backup opportunities are best-placed.
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Floating offshore wind: what challenges?

A dozen challenges for floating offshore wind projects are ranked in this 4-page note, by reviewing 50 recent patents across the industry. We model these challenges are likely to double capex and levelized costs, compared with traditional offshore wind. The potential for floating offshore wind is also location dependent.
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Floating offshore wind: what challenges?

This data-file ranks the greatest challenges for the floating offshore wind industry, by reviewing 50 recent patents, filed by leading companies. The challenges are relatively immutable. They likely double capex and levelized costs, compared with traditional offshore wind.
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Vestas: where’s the IP?

This data-file aggregates 2,000 patents filed by Vestas and compares them with 15,000 patents filed by competitors. Although other companies have made headlines with larger turbines, we find Vestas may have an edge overall, particularly in the category of operations, monitoring, maintenance and ensuring turbines' longevity.
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Wind power: decline rate conclusions?

This 4-page PDF presents our conclusions from tabulating the ‘decline rates’ of 1,215 US wind power plants, which have reported data to the US EIA. US wind generation profiles are not dissimilar from well-managed oil and gas fields; some projects may suffer 2% lower IRRs versus forecasts if they have not factored in declines; and … Continue reading "Wind power: decline rate conclusions?"
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Wind power: decline rates?

This data-file aggregates wind generation by facility, across the US, at 1,400 wind farms, going back 20-years. Wind power decline rates average 1% per year, then possibly accelerate to 3-4% per year in years 10-20. However wind generation is also noisy, typically varying +/- 7% YoY. This matters for the economics and ultimate share of wind.
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Is there enough land for an energy transition?

This data-file compares the land required by different energy transition technologies, in tons of CO2-equivalents abated per acre per year. Including renewables, nature based solutions, efficiency gains and CCS, we find that decarbonizing a typical developed world country may use up 20-50% of its land.
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Offshore wind costs are inflating?

This data-file tabulates the capex costs of 35 offshore wind projects in the UK, with 8.5GW of capacity, which have been installed since the year 2000. There is little evidence for deflation. Rather, breakeven power prices appear to have risen at a 2.5% CAGR over the past decade. Our modelling is show in the data-file.
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Wind turbine manufacturers: market share over time?

This data-file tracks wind turbine manufacturers, their market shares and their margins. By 2022, fifteen companies account for 98% of global wind turbine installations. This includes large Western incumbents, and a growing share for Chinese entrants, which now comprise over half of the total market, limiting sector-wide operating margins to c3%.
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Wind: aim higher?

This data-file contains a simple model for how wind speeds and wind power co-vary with altitude. 2x greater power could likely be harnessed by a kite at 300m than a similar-sized turbine at 80m. 
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Nuclear Research

Reaching criticality: nuclear re-accelerates?

400 GW of nuclear reactors produce 2,800TWH of zero carbon electricity globally each year. But the numbers have been stagnant for two decades. This is now changing. This 14-page note explains why. We expect a >3% CAGR through 2030, and hope for a 2.5x ramp through 2050. A ‘nuclear renaissance’ helps the energy transition.
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Nuclear capacity: forecasts, construction times, operating lives?

How much nuclear capacity would need to be constructed in our roadmap to net zero? This breakdown of global nuclear capacity forecasts that 30 GW of new reactors must be brought online each year through 2050, if the nuclear industry was to ramp up to 7,000 TWH of generation by 2050, which would be 6% of total global energy. There is a precedent. Delaying shutdowns helps too.
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X Energy: nuclear fuel breakthrough?

X-Energy is a next-generation nuclear company, progressing a demonstration project in Washington State, due to start up in 2027. The key innovation is using TRISO fuels, whose manufacturing is locked up with a concentrated patent library. Long-term costs are suggested at 6c/kWh.
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TerraPower: nuclear breakthrough?

TerraPower is one of the most active next-generation nuclear companies, with funding from Bill Gates, and 600 engineers working towards the first, 345MWe Natrium reactor before 2030. We could not entirely de-risk a "breakthrough" due to the breadth and novelty of its patents.
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Terrestrial Energy: small modular reactor breakthrough?

Terrestrial Energy is a next-generation nuclear fission company, aiming to build a small modular reactor: specifically a 2 x 195MWe Integral Molten Salt Reactor with ultimate costs below $3,000/kWe, yielding levelized costs of 5-7c/kWh. 80 patents lock up 8 core innovations in a high-quality library that helps de-risk the potential.
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General Fusion: magnetized fusion breakthrough?

General Fusion is developing a magnetized target fusion reactor, compressing plasma via high-pressure pistons. It hopes to commercialize 100-200MWe fusion reactors with 5-6.5c/kWh levelized costs of electricity in the late 2020s. Our patent de-risks several innovations. Although complexity is high and we note four residual risks for the technology.
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Japan: nuclear re-start tracker?

This data-file looks through 17 major nuclear plants in Japan with 45GW of operable capacity, covering the key parameters and re-start news on each facility. Realistically, there is near-term capacity to generate 130TWH more nuclear power in Japan and free up 20MTpa of LNG.
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Commonwealth Fusion: nuclear fusion breakthrough?

Our patent review found CFS to have a high-quality patent library, of specific, intelligible, commercially-minded innovations to densify the magnets that would confine plasma in a tokamak for nuclear fusion. Specific details, and minor hesitations are in the data-file. 
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Nuclear fusion: what are the challenges?

Nuclear fusion could provide a limitless supply of zero-carbon energy from the 2030s onwards. The goal of this 20-page note is simply to understand the challenges for fusion reactors, especially deuterium-tritium tokamaks. Innovations need to improve EROI, stability, longevity and costs.
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NuScale: small modular reactor breakthrough?

NuScale is developing a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR), producing 77MWe of power. It is the first SMR design to win US regulatory approval and the first plant is being built in Romania for 2028. NuScale's patents scored well on our framework.
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Back-stopping renewables: the nuclear option?

Nuclear power can backstop much volatility in renewables-heavy grids, for costs of 15-25c/kWh. This is at least 70% less costly than large batteries or green hydrogen, but could see less wind and solar developed overall. Our 13-page note reviews the opportunity.
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Power plants: cold starts and ramp rates?

This data-file aggregates the ramp-up rates of power generation sources, as they start up from "cold", and then as they ramp up (in MW per minute). Hydro and simple cycle gas turbines are fastest, followed by CCGTS, coal and nuclear.
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Nuclear power: what role in the energy transition?

Uranium markets could be 50-75M lbs under-supplied by 2030. This deficit is deeper than other commodities in our roadmap to net zero. Demand is driven by China, constructing reactors for 50-70% less than the West, yielding zero carbon power at 6-8c/kWh. This 18-page note presents the outlook and screens uranium miners.
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Uranium mining: the economics?

This data-file disaggregates the marginal costs of a new uranium mine, as a simple function of uranium prices, ore grade, capex and opex. Our base case is a marginal cost of $60/lb for a 10% IRR. Cash costs range from $7-40/lb. But lower ore grades can easily require $90/lb uranium to justify investment.
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Uranium mining: company screen and market outlook?

We have screened c20 uranium miners, assessing each company's production, reserves, asset base, size and recent news flow. 10 are publicly listed. Our market outlook is that firm uranium supply may be running 25% short of the level required on our roadmap to net zero.
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Nuclear Power Project Economics

This data-file models the costs of nuclear power project, based on technical papers and past projects around the industry. An up-front capex cost of $6,000/kW might yield a levelized cost of 15c/kWh. But 6-10c/kWh is achievable via a renaissnace in next-generation nuclear.
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Next-generation nuclear: the cutting edge?

Can next-generation nuclear technologies realistically be factored into long-run forecasts of energy markets or energy-transition? The impacts of nuclear fusion would be vast, and several companies are making exciting progress, but no facility in our sample has yet surpassed TRL6, achieved an "energy gain" or system stability beyond c10 mS - 2mins.
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Batteries Research

Energy storage: top conclusions into batteries?

Thunder Said Energy is a research firm focused on economic opportunities that can drive the energy transition. Our top ten conclusions into batteries and energy storage are summarized below, looking across all of our research.
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Renewables plus batteries: co-deployments over time?

More and more renewables plus batteries projects are being developed as grids face bottlenecks? On average, projects in 2022-24 supplemented each MW of renewables capacity with 0.5MW of battery capacity, which in turn offered 3.5 hours of energy storage per MW of battery capacity, for 1.7 MWH of energy storage per MW of renewables.
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Compressed air energy storage: costs and economics?

Our base case estimates for Compressed Air Energy Storage costs require a 26c/kWh storage spread to generate a 10% IRR at a $1,350/kW CAES facility, with 63% round-trip efficiency, charging and discharging 365 days per year. Our numbers are based on top-down project data and bottom up calculations, both for CAES capex (in $/kW) and CAES efficiency (in %) and can be stress-tested in the model. What opportunities?
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Electrochemistry: redox potential?

Batteries, electrolysers and cleaner metals/materials value chains all hinge on electrochemistry. Hence this 19-page note explains the energy economics from first principles. The physics are constructive for lithium and next-gen electrowinning, but perhaps challenge green hydrogen aspirations?
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Electric vehicle: battery life?

Electric vehicle battery life will realistically need to reach 1,500 cycles for the average passenger vehicle, 2,000-3,000 cycles after reflecting a margin of safety for real-world statistical distributions, and 3,000-6,000 cycles for higher-use commercial vehicles. This means lithium ion batteries may be harder to displace with novel chemistries?
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Thermal energy storage: heat of the moment?

Thermal energy storage will outcompete other batteries and hydrogen for avoiding renewable curtailments and integrating more solar? Overlooked advantages are discussed in this 21-page report, plus a fast-evolving company landscape. What implications for solar, gas and industrial incumbents?
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Thermal energy storage: cost model?

This data-file captures the costs of thermal energy storage, buying renewable electricity, heating up a storage media, then releasing the heat for industrial, commercial or residential use. Our base case requires 13.5 c/kWh-th for a 10% IRR, however 5-10 c/kWh-th heat could be achieved with lower capex costs.
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Renewable grids: solar, wind and grid-scale battery sizing?

How much wind, solar and/or batteries are required to supply a stable power output, 24-hours per day, 7-days per week, or at even longer durations? This data-file stress-tests different scenarios, with each 1MW of average load requiring at least 3.5MW of solar and 3.5MW of lithium ion batteries, for a total system cost of at least 18c/kWh, and up to 800c/kWh.
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Thermal energy storage: leading companies?

This data-file is a screen of thermal energy storage companies, developing systems that can absorb excess renewable electricity, heat up a storage medium, and then re-release the heat later, for example as high-grade steam or electricity. The space is fast-evolving and competitive, with 17 leading companies progressing different solutions.
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Redox flow batteries: for the duration?

Redox flow batteries have 6-24 hour durations and require 15-20c/kWh storage spreads. They will increasingly compete with lithium ion batteries in grid-scale storage. Does this unlock a step-change for peak renewables penetration? Or create 3-30x upside for total global Vanadium demand? This 15-page note is our outlook for redox flow batteries.
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Electrochemistry: battery voltage and the Nernst Equation?

What determines the Voltage of an electrochemical cell, such as a lithium ion battery, redox flow battery, a hydrogen fuel cell, an electrolyser or an electrowinning plant? This note explains electrochemical voltages, from first principles, starting with Standard Potentials and the Nernst Equation.
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Redox flow batteries: costs and capex?

Redox flow battery costs are built up in this data-file, especially for Vanadium redox flow. In our base case, a 6-hour battery that charges and discharges daily needs a storage spread of 20c/kWh to earn a 10% IRR on $3,000/kW of up-front capex. Longer-duration redox flow batteries start to out-compete lithium ion batteries for grid-scale storage.
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Battery cathode active materials and manufacturing?

Lithium ion batteries famously have cathodes containing lithium, nickel, manganese, cobalt, aluminium and/or iron phosphate. But how are these cathode active materials manufactured? This data-file gathers specific details from technical papers and patents by leading companies such as BASF, LG, CATL, Panasonic, Solvay and Arkema.
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Solvay: lithium ion battery binders and additives?

Solvay is a chemicals company with growing exposure to battery materials, especially the PVDF binders that hold together active materials in the electrodes. But also increasingly in electrolyte solvents, salts and additives. Interestingly, our patent review finds optimizations of this overall system can improve the longevity and energy density of batteries, which may also lead to consolidation across the battery supply chain?
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Lithium ion batteries: energy density?

Today's lithium ion batteries have an energy density of 200-300 Wh/kg. I.e., they contain 4kg of material per kWh of energy storage. Technology gains can see lithium ion batteries' energy densities doubling to 500Wh/kg in the 2030s, trebling to 750 Wh/kg by the 2040s, and the best possible energy densities are around 1,250 Wh/kg. This is still 90% below hydrocarbons, at 12,000 Wh/kg.
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Electric vehicles: breaking the ICE?

Electric vehicles are a world-changing technology, 2-6x more efficient than ICEs, but how quickly will they ramp up to re-shape global oil demand? This 14-page note finds surprising ‘stickiness’. Even as EV sales explode to 200M units by 2050 (2x all-time peak ICE sales), the global ICE fleet may only fall by 40%. Will LT oil demand surprise to the upside or downside?
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Commercial aviation: fuel economy of planes?

This data-file calculates the fuel economy of planes from first principles, using physics to calculate lift and drag, and comparing with actual data from aircraft manufacturers. The typical fuel economy of a plane is 80 passenger-mpg to carry 400 passengers, 8,000km at 900kmph, using jet fuel with 12,000 Wh/kg energy density. What sensitivities and decarbonization opportunities?
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Amprius: silicon anode technology review?

Amprius is commercializing a lithium-ion battery with a near-100% silicon anode, yielding 80% higher energy density. It can achieve 80% charge within 6-minutes. The company is listed on NYSE. We have reviewed Amprius' silicon anode technology. The patent library is excellent, goes back to 2009 and has locked upon a specific design. This allows us to guess at costs, degradation and longevity.
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Hillcrest: ZVS inverter breakthrough?

Hillcrest Energy Technologies is developing an ultra-efficient SiC inverter, which has 30-70% lower switching losses, up to 15% lower system cost, weight, size, and thus interesting applications in electric vehicles. How does it work and can we de-risk the technology?
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Grid-scale battery costs: the economics?

Grid-scale batteries are envisaged to store up excess renewable electricity and re-release it later. Grid-scale battery costs are modeled at 20c/kWh in our base case, which is the 'storage spread' that a LFP lithium ion battery must charge to earn a 10% IRR off $1,200/kW installed capex costs. Other batteries can be compared in the data-file.
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Eaton: breakdown of revenues by product category?

Eaton is a power-electronics super-giant, listed in the US, employing 86,000 people, generating $20bn per year of revenues. We have aimed to guess how $20bn pa of net sales is distributed across 200 different product categories. 75% is exposed to power-electronics, with tailwinds in the energy transition.
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Battery degradation: causes, effects & implications?

This 14-page note offers five rules of thumb to maximize the longevity of lithium-ion batteries, in grid-scale storage and electric vehicles. The data suggest hidden upside in the demand for batteries, for lithium and high-quality power electronics, especially if batteries are to backstop renewables.
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Battery degradation: what causes capacity fade?

Lithium ion battery degradation rates vary 2-20% per 1,000 cycles. And lithium ion batteries last from 500 - 20,000 cycles. We have aggregated 7M data-points from laboratory tests, in order to quantify what drives battery degradation. LFP chemistry, low C-rates, stable temperatures and limited cycling all help.
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Supercapacitors: case studies for renewable-heavy grids?

Supercapacitors are well suited to smoothing short-term volatility in increasingly renewables-heavy grids. Typical systems are 10kW-10MW, 1M chage-discharge cycles, 5-30 seconds storage and $30/kW costs. Expect the market to surprise to the upside, especially in combination with other power-electronics. Who benefits?
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Powin: grid-scale battery breakthrough?

Powin commercializes energy storage hardware and software. Its LFP battery system is 30% more compact than peers, at 200 MWH/acre, and modular, meaning it may be 50% faster to install. Our patent review finds a moat around specific process improvements, to help back up the short-term volatility of solar and wind.
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Solar volatility: interconnectors versus batteries?

The solar energy reaching a given point on Earth’s surface varies by +/- 6% each year. These annual fluctuations are 96% correlated over tens of miles. And no battery can economically smooth them. Solar heavy grids may thus become prone to unbearable volatility. Our 17-page note outlines this important challenge, and finds that the best solutions are to construct high-voltage interconnectors and keep power grids diversified.
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Power grids: global investment?

Global investment into power networks averaged $280bn per annum in 2015-20, of which two-thirds was for distribution and one-third was for transmission. Amazingly, these numbers step up to $600bn in 2030, >$1trn in the 2040s and can be as large as all primary energy investment.
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Nostromo: thermal energy storage breakthrough?

Nostromo is commercializing a thermal energy storage system, for commercial buildings in hot climates, where AC can comprise 40-70% of total energy use. It scores highly on our patent framework and can be an interesting alternative to lithium batteries.
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24M: semi-solid battery breakthrough?

Semi-solid electrodes are aimed at "dramatically reducing" costs of lithium ion batteries, with 70-100% higher energy density, plus better safety and reliability, for use in battery storage and electric vehicles. 24M has a moat and is licensing technology to Freyr and Volkswagen.
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Pumped hydro: the economics?

This data-file assesses pumped hydro costs, to back up wind and solar. A typical project has 0.5GW of capacity, 12-hours storage duration, 80% efficiency, and capex costs of $2,250/kW. Thus it requires a 25c/kWh storage spread, in order to generate a 10% IRR.
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CATL: sodium ion battery breakthrough?

CATL produces one-third of the world's lithium ion batteries. Its patents have warned of devastating lithium shortages since at least 2016. Hence in 2021, it announced it would produce commercial sodium-ion batteries by 2023. The technical challenges are captured in its patent library. We cannot fully de-risk its 2023 target.
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Direct lithium extraction: ten grains of salt?

Direct Lithium Extraction from brines could help lithium scale 30x in the Energy Transition; with costs and CO2 intensities 30-70% below mined lithium; while avoiding the 1-2 year time-lags of evaporative salars. This 15-page note reviews the top ten challenges that decision-makers need to de-risk.
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Lithium from brines: the economics?

This data-file approximates the costs of battery-grade lithium from brines, via traditional salars the emerging technology of direct lithium extraction. Costs are c40-60% lower than mined lithium in ($/ton of lithium carbonate equivalent). CO2 intensity is 50-80% lower (in kg/kg).
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Graphite: upgrade to premium?

Global graphite volumes grow 6x in the energy transition, mostly driven by electric vehicles. We see the industry moving away from China’s near-exclusive control. The future favors a handful of Western producers, integrated from mine to anode, with CO2 intensity below 10kg/kg. This 10-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Graphite production: the economics?

This data-file captures simplified costs for producing battery-grade graphite (i.e., 99.9% pure, coated, spheronized graphite) in an integrated facility, from mine to packaged output. Our marginal cost is estimated at around $10,000/ton for a 10% IRR. CO2 intensity varies but averages 10kg/kg.
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Graphite producers: leading companies?

This data-file screens 15 companies that are developing graphite mines, plus downstream refining facilities, to upgrade their output into highly pure spheronized graphite that can be used as an anode material for lithium ion batteries, such as in electric vehicles.
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Nickel solutions: unblocking a battery bottleneck?

The global nickel market will grow from $30bn pa to $300bn in the energy transition, including a 5x increase in volumes and 2x increase in price. This 15-page note evaluates the nickel supply chain for electric vehicle battery cathodes. Deficits are looming. Hence we end by screening nickel names.
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Nickel production: the economics?

This model captures the economics of producing battery-grade nickel (e.g., Class I, nickel sulphate) at a metallurgical processing facility. Marginal cost is likely around $11,500/ton in order to generate a 10% IRR, in a process emitting 14 tons of CO2 per ton of product. Numbers vary.
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Residential solar plus batteries: granular data from Australia?

This data-file contains actual power flows, kindly shared by a client of Thunder Said Energy, who is based in sunny Australia, with 13.5kW of residential solar panels and the 13.5kWh Tesla Powerwall system as a back-up. The system meets an impressive 92% of year-round power needs.
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ESS: redox flow battery breakthrough?

ESS is emerging as a leader in medium-duration energy storage (4-12 hours), with an iron flow battery costing 2-5c/kWh (assuming >daily cycling) and lasting 20,000 cycles. The patent library is high quality. We note five challenges to consider. The largest is round-trip efficiency.
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Sila: silicon anode battery breakthrough?

Sila Nanotechnologies claims to have made "the biggest battery breakthrough in 30-years", integrating silicon with the anodes of lithium ion batteries. Overall, our patent review did support some further de-risking of silicon anode LIBs.
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Solid power: solid state battery breakthrough?

Solid Power is developing solid-state batteries, using sulphide electrolytes. Ambitious goals include >500 miles of EV range (50-100% more than today's lithium ion batteries), 2x higher life-spans and costs as low as $85/kWh. The company is going public via SPAC, valued at $1.2bn, and has an exceptional list of backers.  
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Grid volatility: are batteries finally in the money?

UK power price volatility has exploded in 2021. The average daily range has risen 4x from 2019-20, to 35c/kWh in 3Q21. At this level, grid-scale batteries are strongly ‘in the money’. So will the high volatility persist? This is the question in today's 6-page note.
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Cobalt: leading producers?

Our global decarbonization models burn through the world's entirely terrestrial cobalt resources. Hence this data-file reviews c25 mines around the world, and the resultant positions of 25 global cobalt producers. All cobalt is produced alongside copper or nickel, but some companies are more cobalt-exposed.
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Integrated energy: a new model?

This 14-page note lays out a new model to supply fully carbon-neutral energy to a cluster of commercial and industrial consumers, via an integrated package of renewables, low-carbon gas back-ups and nature based carbon removals. This is remarkable for three reasons: low cost, high stability, and full technical readiness.
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Form Energy: long-duration battery breakthrough?

Form Energy is aiming to commercialize a metal-air battery, for long-duration energy storage, using only safe and Earth-abundant materials. The first 1MW/150MWH system could be deployed by 2023. Compared to other patent libraries, we have found it harder to de-risk Form's technology.
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Lilac solutions: lithium breakthrough?

Lilac Solutions aims to commercialize a lithium ion exchange technology, which can extract lithium from dilute brine solutions, rapidly, economically and scalably. Overall Lilac's patents look promising to us.  They contain some excellent, precise and intelligible details on making ion exchange materials.
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Lithium: reactive?

Lithium demand is likely to rise 30x in the energy transition. So this 15-page note reviews the mined lithium supply chain, finding prices will rise too, by 10-50%. The main reason is lower-grade ores. Second is energy intensity. Low-cost lithium brine producers may benefit from steeper cost curves.
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Lithium producers: leading companies?

This data-file captures c20 lithium producers, their output (in kTpa), their size and their recent progress. Eight companies effectively control 90% of global supply. 3 out of 12 earlier-stage companies underwent restructurings in 2020, illustrating risks, but also potential future supply shortages.
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Lithium mining and upgrading: the economics?

This data-file quantifies the economics of producing lithium carbonate from spodumene in mined pegmatites. We estimate a price of $12,500/ton lithium carbonate price is likely needed for a 10% IRR in today's China-heavy value chain, which emits 50kg of CO2 per kg of lithium.
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Stem: grid-scale battery breakthrough?

Stem Inc. went public via SPAC in April-2021, supporting grid-scale batteries with optimization software, which can lower energy bills by 10-30% in the energy transition. Its patents scored reasonably well on our usual framework. Managing short-term renewables volatility was a crucial focus.
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Battery recycling: long division?

Recycling lithium batteries could be worth $100bn per year by 2040 while supporting electric vehicles’ ascent. Hence new companies are emerging to recapture 95% of spent materials with environmentally sound methods. Our 15-page note explores what it would take for battery-recycling to become both practical and compelling.
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Battery recycling: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of recycling spent lithium ion batteries, taking in waste cells, and recovering materials such as cobalt, nickel, manganese, copper, aluminium, lithium and steel. It currently looks challenging to generate acceptable IRRs without charging a disposal fee in the range of $1,700-2,000/ton. This could change through more automated processes.
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Enovix: battery breakthrough?

Enovix has developed a 3D silicon lithium-ion battery, 5-years ahead of the broader industry, with 2x higher energy density. The company went public via SPAC in February-2021, with an implied post-deal valuation of $1.12bn. This data-file assesses its technology breakthroughs.
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StoreDot: battery breakthrough?

StoreDot is developing "extreme fast-charging" batteries for electric vehicles, using a proprietary range of nanomaterial additives. It claims prototype cells can charge 5-6x faster than conventional lithium ion. This data-file assesses StoreDot patents from 2019-20, looking to de-mystify its breakthroughs.
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Solid state batteries: will they change the world?

Solid state batteries promise 2x higher energy density than traditional lithium ion, with 3x faster charging and lower risk of fires. They could re-shape global energy, especially heavy trucks. But the industry has been marooned by uncontrollable cell degradation. QuantumScape’s disclosures suggest it is light years ahead. But costs may remain high.
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Lithium: global demand forecasts?

This data-file estimates global demand for lithium as part of the energy transition. The market has already trebled from 23kTpa in 2010 to 65kTpa in 2020, while we see the ascent continuing to 500kTpa in 2030 and almost 2MTpa in 2050. 90% is driven by transport. Global reserves suffice to cover the demand.
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Quantumscape: battery breakthrough?

This data-file reviews 25 of QuantumScape's 2019-20 patents, in order to substantiate its claims of a solid-state battery than can achieve c50-100% higher energy density than conventional lithium ion batteries, 3x faster charging, while also surviving hundreds of charge-discharge cycles without degradation.
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Shifting demand: can renewables reach 50% of grids?

25% of the power grid could realistically become ‘flexible’, shifting its demand across days, even weeks. This is the lowest cost and most thermodynamically efficient route to fit more wind and solar into power grids. We are upgrading our renewables ceilings from 40% to 50%. This 22-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Electric trucks: what battery sizes?

An electric truck would need a 15 ton battery to match the c2,500-mile range of a diesel truck. However, larger batteries above c8-tons detract 10% from fuel economy and may cause trucks to exceed regulatory weight limits, lowering their payload capacities. 4-6 ton batteries with 700-1,000km ranges are optimal.
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Electric vehicle charging: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of electric vehicle chargers, by disaggregating the costs of different charger types. Economics are most favorable where they lead to incremental retail purchases and for faster chargers. Economics are least favorable around apartments, charging at work and for slower charging speeds.
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Lithium ion batteries: breakdown of materials?

This data-file is a breakdown of lithium ion battery materials and their costs. A typical lithium ion battery has a cell-level energy density around 250 Wh/kg, and weighs 380 grams, of which 40% is cathode metals, 25% is anode materials, 20% is current collectors, 15% is electrolyte and separators. Total cost is around $150/kWh, half materials, half manufacturing.
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Electrolysers: how much deflation ahead for hydrogen?

For green hydrogen to become competitive, total electrolyser costs must deflate by over 75% from current levels around $1,000/kW. This 14-page note breaks down the numbers and the challenges, based on patents and technical papers. We argue 15-25% total cost deflation may be more realistic if manufacturers also strive to make a margin.
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Lithium ion batteries for electric vehicles: what challenges?

This data-file tabulates the greatest challenges for lithium ion batteries in electric vehicles, which have been cited in 2020's patent literature. Conclusions are spelled out in detail, covering energy density, "million mile" longevity and electric semi-trucks. Companies profiled include Tesla, CATL, LG, Sumitomo, et al.
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A new case for gas: what if renewables get overbuilt?

Overbuilding renewables may make power grids more expensive and less reliable. Hence more businesses may choose to generate their own power behind the meter, installing combined heat and power systems fuelled by natural gas. IRRs reach 20-30%. Efficiency is 70-80%. Total CO2 falls by 6-30%. This 17-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Backstopping renewables: cold storage beats battery storage?

Phase change materials could be a game-changer for energy storage. They can earn double digit IRRs unlocking c20% efficiency gains in freezers and refrigerators, which make up 9% of US electricity. This is superior to batteries which add costs and incur 8-30% efficiency losses. We review 5,800 patents and identify leading companies.
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Energy storage: batteries versus supercapacitors?

Supercapacitors may eclipse lithium ion batteries in the hybridization of transport and industry. Their energy density is improving. Potential CO2 savings could surpass 1bn tons per year. IRRs of 10-50% can be achieved, even prior to CO2 prices. These are our conclusions after reviewing 2,000 Western patents. We profile the leading companies exposed to the theme.
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Super-capacitors: technology leaders?

This data-file screens for the 'top twenty' technology leaders in super-capacitors, by assessing c2,000 Western patents filed since 2013. The screen comprises capital goods conglomerates, materials companies, an Oil Major with exposure and specialist companies improving SC energy density.
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Battery Patents: Lithium Leaders and New Breakthroughs?

Continued deflation in lithium ion batteries is suggested by a new record of 26,000 patents filed in 2019, hence this data-file identifies the technology leaders. Elsewhere, redox flow batteries patents have doubled since 2014, while interest has been waning in solid state batteries (-57% since 2014) and liquid metal batteries (-67%).
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Leading Companies in Battery Recycling?

This data-file tracks over 6,000 patents filed into battery recycling technology, escalating at a 15% CAGR since 2000. 18 technology leaders are profiled ex-China, including 6 global, large-cap listed companies and 10 private companies, including some exciting, early-stage concepts to improve material recovery and costs.
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Decarbonized power: how much wind and solar fit into the optimal grid?

What should future power grids look like? Our answer optimizes costs, stability and CO2. Renewables do not surpass 45-50%. By this point, over 70% of new wind and solar will fail to dispatch, while incentive prices will have trebled. Batteries help little. They raise power prices by a further 2-5x to accommodate just 3-15% more … Continue reading "Decarbonized power: how much wind and solar fit into the optimal grid?"
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Scaling Up Renewables and Batteries

Renewables would cap out at 40-50% of inflexible electricity grids, based on Monte Carlo analysis of wind, solar and batteries. Beyond 50%, new renewables' curtailment rates surpass 70%, trebling their marginal cost. Batteries also increase incentive prices by 5-25x. Natural gas and demand-shifting are the best backstops.
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Electric Vehicles Increase Fossil Fuel Demand?

It is widely believed that electric vehicles will destroy fossil fuel demand. We find they will increase it by 0.7Mboed from 2020-35. EVs only start lowering net fossil fuel demand from 2037 onwards. The reason is that 3.7x more energy is consumed to manufacture each EV than the net road fuel it displaces each year; … Continue reading "Electric Vehicles Increase Fossil Fuel Demand?"
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Leading Companies in Redox Flow Batteries

We have compiled a database of 25 leading companies in Redox Flow Batteries, by looking across 1,237 patents since 2017. Exciting progress is visible, with technical maturity rapidly progressing, demonstration facilities under construction and a promise of cost-competitive, long-life, energy storage.
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Hybrid horizons: industrial use of batteries?

Gas and diesel engines can be 30-80% less efficient when idling, or running at low loads. This is the rationale for hybridizing engines with backup batteries. Industrial applications are increasing, achieving 30-65% efficiency gains, across multiple industries. In 2018-19, the biggest new horizon has been in oil and gas, including hybrid rigs, supply vessels, construction vessels and even LNG plants.
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Shipping in batteries: the economics?

What if it were possible to displace diesel from high-cost, high-carbon island grids, by charging up large batteries with gas- and renewable power, then shipping the batteries? We model the economics to be cost-competitive, while CO2 emissions can be halved. Futher battery cost deflation will also help.
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Round Trip Battery Efficiencies

Different batteries have different round trip efficiencies. We see great potential, for example, in electrification of the vehicle fleet, which can achieve c3.5x efficiency gains.  We see less potential, for example, backing up the grid with hydrogen, which reduces total system efficiency by c30%.
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Power Grids and Power Electronics Research

Power grids: opportunities in the energy transition?

Power grids move electricity from the point of generation to the point of use, while aiming to maximize the power quality, minimize costs and minimize losses. Broadly defined, global power grids and power electronics investment must step up 5x in the energy transition, from a $750bn pa market to over $3.5trn pa. But this theme gets woefully overlooked. This also means it offers up some of the best opportunities in energy transition.
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US electric utilities: transmission and distribution costs?

This data-file evaluates transmission and distribution costs, averaging 7c/kWh in 2024, based on granular disclosures for 200 regulated US electric utilities, which sell 65% of the US's total electricity to 110M residential and commercial customers. Costs have doubled since 2005. Which utilities have rising rate bases and efficiently low opex?
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Into thin air: beaming power as microwaves?

What if large quantities of power could be transmitted via the 2-6 GHz microwave spectrum, rather than across bottlenecked cables and wires? This 12-page note explores the technology, advantages, opportunities, challenges, efficiencies and costs. We still fear power grid bottlenecks.
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Bottlenecked grids: winners and losers?

What if the world is entering an era of persistent power grid bottlenecks, with long delays to interconnect new loads? Everything changes. Hence this 16-page report looks across the energy and industrial landscape, to rank the implications across different sectors and companies.
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Grid connection sizes: residential, commercial and industrial?

What are the typical sizes of grid connections at different residential, commercial and industrial facilities? This data-file derives aggregates estimates, from the 10kW grid connections of smaller homes to the GW-scale grid connections of large data-centers, proposed green hydrogen projects and aluminium plants.
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Power grids: the biggest bottleneck in the world?

Power grids will be the biggest bottleneck in the energy transition, according to this 18-page report. Tensions have been building for a decade. They are invisible unless you are looking. And the tightness could last a decade. Further acceleration of renewables may be thwarted. And we are re-thinking grid back-ups.
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Solar inverters: companies, products and costs?

This data-file tracks some of the leading solar inverter companies and inverter costs, efficiency and power electronic properties. As China now supplies 85% of all global inverters, at 30-50% lower $/W pricing than Western companies, a key question explored in the data-file is around price versus quality.
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Hydro power: generation by facility, availability over time?

Hydro power generation by facility is tabulated in this data-file for the 20 largest hydro-electric plants in the US. The average facility achieves 43% availability, varying from 39% in hot-dry years to 51% in wet years; and from 33% at the seasonal trough in September-October to 53% at the seasonal peak in May-June. What implications for energy markets and renewables?
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Harmonic filters: leading companies?

This data-file screens 20 leading companies in harmonic filters, tabulating their size, geography, ownership details, patent filings and a description of their offering. Active harmonic filters reduce total harmonic distortion below 5%, with 97% efficiency, within 5 ms. Half a dozen companies stood out in our screen, including one large, listed Western capital goods company.
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Solar and wind: what decarbonization costs?

The costs of decarbonizing by ramping up solar and wind are highly dependent on context. But our best estimate is that solar and wind can reach 40% of the global grid for a $60/ton average CO2 abatement cost. This is a relatively low cost. Yet it still raises retail electricity prices from 10c/kWh to 12c/kWh. This 7-page note explores numbers and implications.
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Wind and solar: curtailments over time?

Wind and solar curtailments average around 5% across different grids that we have evaluated in 2022, and have generally been rising over time, especially in the last half-decade. The key reason is grid bottlenecks. Grid expansions are crucial for wind and solar to continue expanding.
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Power grids: when will wind and solar peak?

Wind and solar will most likely peak at 50-55% of power grids, without demand-shifting and batteries; more in wind-heavy grids, less in solar heavy grids. This 12-page note draws conclusions from the statistical distribution of renewables’ generation across 100,000 x 5-minute grid intervals.
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California’s grid: wind and solar statistical distributions?

This data-file aggregates the statistical distribution of total electricity demand, solar generation and wind generation, every 5-minutes, across California, for the entirety of 2022, in order to understand their volatility and curtailment rates. The data suggest that wind and solar will most likely peak at 50-55% of renewables-heavy grids.
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California power generation over time?

California's power grid ranges from 26-61GW of demand. Utility scale solar has almost quadrupled in the past decade, rising from 5% to almost 20% of the grid. Yet it has not displaced thermal generation, which rose from 28% to 36% of the grid. We even wonder whether wind and solar are entrenching natural gas generators as backstops.
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Renewable-heavy grids: dividing the pie?

The levelized cost of partial electricity (LCOPE) is very different from the levelized cost of total electricity (LCOTE). This 21-page note explores the distinction. It suggests renewables will peak at 30-60% of power grids? And gas is well-placed as a back-up, set to surprise, by entrenching at 30-50% of renewables-heavy grids?
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MOSFETs: energy use and power loss calculator?

MOSFETs are fast-acting digital switches, used to transform electricity, across new energies and digital devices. MOSFET power losses are built up from first principles in this data-file, averaging 2% per MOSFET, with a range of 1-10% depending on voltage, switching, on resistance, operating temperature and reverse recovery charge.
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California electricity prices by hour?

In 2023, power grids with c20-30% solar variation tend to have intra-day spreads of 9c/kWh, between peak wholesale electricity prices at 8pm and trough prices at 10am. Unusually, night-time electricity prices are 40% higher than day-time prices. This data-file quantifies California electricity prices, on a wholesale basis, at a sample of grid nodes, looking hour by hour in August-2023.
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Renewables: the levelized cost paradox?

There is an economic paradox where shifting towards lower cost supply sources can cause inflation in the total costs of supply. Renewable-heavy grids are subject to this paradox, as they have high fixed costs and falling utilization. As power prices rise, there are growing incentives for self-generation. Energy transition requires a balanced, pragmatic approach.
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Smooth operators: who benefits from volatile power grids?

Some industries can absorb low-cost electricity when renewables are over-generating and avoid high-cost electricity when they are under-generating. The net result can lower electricity costs by 2-3c/kWh and uplift ROCEs by 5-15% in increasingly renewables-heavy grids. This 14-page note ranges over 10,000 demand shifting opportunities, to identify who can benefit most.
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Demand shifting: electrical flexibility by industry?

Demand shifting flexes electrical loads in a power grid, to smooth volatility and absorb more renewables. This database scores technical potential and economical potential of different electricity-consuming processes to shift demand, across materials, manufacturing, industrial heat, transportation, utilities, residential HVAC and commercial loads.
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Power grids: down to the wire?

Power grid circuit kilometers need to rise 3-5x in the energy transition. This trend directly tightens global aluminium markets by over c20%, and global copper markets by c15%. Slow recent progress may lead to bottlenecks, then a boom? This 12-page note quantifies the rising demand for circuit kilometers, grid infrastructure, underlying metals and who benefits?
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Global electricity prices vs. CO2 intensities?

Retail electricity prices average 11c/kWh globally, of which 50-60% is wholesale power generation, 25-35% is transmission and 10-20% covers other administrative costs of utilities. The average CO2 intensity of the global average power grid is 0.45 kg/kWh. Variations are wide. And there is a -35% correlation between electricity prices vs CO2 intensities in different countries globally.
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Power cuts: how frequent are grid disruptions?

This data-file aggregates significant US power grid disruptions, based on data from the DOE. On average, there are 250 power cuts per year in the United States, lasting for a median average of 5-hours, and affecting a median average of 80,000 customers. 20% of the power cuts last longer than 1-day. 15% affect more than 1M customers. What implications?
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Diesel power generation: levelized costs?

A multi-MW scale diesel generator requires an effective power price of 20c/kWh, in order to earn a 10% IRR, on c$700/kW capex, assuming $70 oil prices and c150km trucking of oil products to the facility. Economics can be stress-tested in the Model-Base tab.
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Power grids: transmission and distribution kilometers by country?

This data-file aggregates power transmission and distribution kilometers by country, across 30 key countries, which comprise 80% of global electricity use. In 2023, the world contains 7M circuit kilometers of power transmission lines and 110M kilometers of power distribution lines. Useful rules of thumb are in the data-file.
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US electric utilities: leading companies in transmission and distribution?

The average US electric utility has 25 GW of generation, 15,000-miles of power transmission, 100,000 miles of distribution, 8M customers, 3.5% dividend yields and 6.5% long-term target growth. We wonder if there is upside on expanding power grids? A dozen companies are in our screen.
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DC-DC power converters: efficiency calculations?

DC-DC power converters are used to alter the voltage in DC circuits, such as in wind turbines, solar MPPT, batteries and digital/computing devices. This data-file is a breakdown of DC-DC power converters' electrical efficiency, which will typically be around 95%. Losses are higher at low loads. We think there will be upside for increasingly high-quality and efficient power electronics as part of the energy transition.
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Renewables: how much time to connect to the grid?

Is the power grid becoming a bottleneck for the continued acceleration of renewables? The median approval time to tie a new US power project into the grid has climbed by 30-days/year since 2001, and doubled since 2015, to over 1,000 days (almost 3-years) in 2021. Wind and solar projects are now taking longest. This data-file looks for de-bottlenecking opportunities, and wonders about changing terms of trade in power markets.
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Goldwind: frequency response from wind turbines?

Goldwind is one of the largest wind turbine manufacturers in the world, headquartered in Beijing, and shares are publicly listed. The wind industry is increasingly aiming to mimic the inertia and frequency responses of synchronous power generators. Goldwind has published some interesting case studies. Hence we have reviewed its patents to see if we can find an edge?
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Cable installation vessels: costs and operating parameters?

This is a database of cable installation vessels for offshore wind and power transmission; tabulating costs (in $M), contract awards (in $/km), capacity (in tons), installation speeds (in meters per hour), power ratings (in MW), crew sizes and positioning systems. There is a paradox over costs.
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Electrification: the rings of power?

Electrification is the largest, most overlooked, most misunderstood part of the energy transition. Hence this 10-page note aims to explain the upside, simply and clearly. Electricity rises from 40% of total useful energy today to 60% by 2050. Within the next decade, this adds $2trn to the enterprise value of capital goods companies in power grids and power electronics.
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Eaton: breakdown of revenues by product category?

Eaton is a power-electronics super-giant, listed in the US, employing 86,000 people, generating $20bn per year of revenues. We have aimed to guess how $20bn pa of net sales is distributed across 200 different product categories. 75% is exposed to power-electronics, with tailwinds in the energy transition.
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Sentient Energy: smart grid breakthrough?

This data-file is a technology review for Sentient Energy, assessing innovations in smart grids. Its technology can achieve energy savings via a combination of "Conservation Voltage Reduction" and "Volt-VAR optimization at the grid edge". This also helps to integrate more solar and EV charging into power grids. We explain the technology.
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Solar volatility: tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies?

This 20-page note quantifies the statistical distribution of short-term volatility at solar power plants. Solar output typically flickers downwards by over 10%, around 100 times per day. Can industrial processes truly be ‘powered by solar’? What opportunities will arise to buffer the volatility?
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Prysmian: power cable technology breakthroughs?

Prysmian scores well on our patent assessment framework. We conclude an array of incremental improvements and industry specializations confer a partial moat and helps to de-risk future installation work.
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Solar volatility: interconnectors versus batteries?

The solar energy reaching a given point on Earth’s surface varies by +/- 6% each year. These annual fluctuations are 96% correlated over tens of miles. And no battery can economically smooth them. Solar heavy grids may thus become prone to unbearable volatility. Our 17-page note outlines this important challenge, and finds that the best solutions are to construct high-voltage interconnectors and keep power grids diversified.
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Solar variability: how much does solar energy vary by year?

This data-file aggregates the average annual volatility of solar (and wind) resources across ten locations, mainly cities, in the United States. Annual volatility of incoming solar energy reaching ground level tends to vary by +/- 6% per year, is 96% correlated across different locations within that city, and 50-70% correlated with other cities in the same region.
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Power transmission: inter-connectors smooth solar volatility?

Can large-scale power transmission smooth renewables' volatility? To answer this question, this horrible 18MB data-file aggregates 20-years of hour-by-hour solar insolation arriving at four cities in the US. The volatility in year-by-year can be halved by a single inter-connector.
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Power grids: global investment?

Global investment into power networks averaged $280bn per annum in 2015-20, of which two-thirds was for distribution and one-third was for transmission. Amazingly, these numbers step up to $600bn in 2030, >$1trn in the 2040s and can be as large as all primary energy investment.
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Power electronics: market size in energy transition?

We describe c15 problems incurred by industrial and commercial power consumers. Many will require additional investment as renewables replace the large rotating generators of traditional power grids. Hence we see the market for commercial and industrial power electronics trebling from $360bn pa in 2021 to $1trn pa by 2035.
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Nostromo: thermal energy storage breakthrough?

Nostromo is commercializing a thermal energy storage system, for commercial buildings in hot climates, where AC can comprise 40-70% of total energy use. It scores highly on our patent framework and can be an interesting alternative to lithium batteries.
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Electrical conductivity: energy transition materials?

Electrical conductivity of energy transition materials is tabulated in this data-file. 'The action' takes place in the range of 10^-8 to 10^-3 Ohm-meters, including silver in solar cells, copper in renewables and EVs, aluminium transmission lines, batteries, and solar semiconductors.
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FACTS of life: upside for STATCOMs & SVCs?

Wind and solar have so far leaned upon conventional power grids. But larger deployments will increasingly need to produce their own reactive power; controllably, dynamically. Demand for STATCOMs & SVCs may thus rise 30x, to over $25-50bn pa. This 20-page note outlines the opportunity and who benefits?
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FACTS: costs of STATCOMs and SVCs?

Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System components (FACTS) include Static Synchronous Compensators (STATCOMs) and Static VAR Compensators (SVCs). A typical wind project has 0.5 - 1.0 kVAR of FACTS per 1.0 kW of real power capacity. Each kVAR of SVCs and STATCOMs costs $100/kVAR and $150/kVAR respectively.
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Capacitor banks: raising power factors?

Power factor corrections could save 0.5% of global electricity, with $20/ton CO2 abatement costs in normal times, and 30% pure IRRs during energy shortages. They will also be needed to integrate more new energies into power grids. This note outlines the opportunity in capacitor banks, their economics and leading companies.
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Capacitor banks: the economics?

This model captures the economics of power factor correction via installing capacitor banks upstream of inductive loads. A 10% IRR is derived from a system costing $30/kVAR, reducing real power losses by 0.5%, thus saving on 8c/kWh electricity prices (75% of savings), $3.5/kW demand charges (15%) and a $20/ton CO2 price (10%).
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STATCOMs and SVCs: leading companies?

This data file looks for leading companies in STATCOMs and SVCs by aggregating all Western patents that refer in their title, abstract or claims to "STATCOMs", "Static VAR Compensators", or similar. ABB (now part of Hitachi), Siemens Energy and GE stand out as Western leaders in a concentrated space, although competition is growing.
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HVDC transmission: leading companies?

The global HVDC market is $10bn pa, and it might typically cost c€100-600 M to connect a large and remote renewables project to the grid or run a small HVDC inter-connector. This data-file reviews the market leaders in HVDC, based on 5,500 patents. A dozen companies stand out, with c$40bn of combined revenues from power transmission projects.
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Wind and solar: cost of grid interconnection?

Cost of grid connection is shaping up to be a major bottleneck for the continued acceleration of new energies. A good baseline is to expect $100-300/kW of grid inter-connection costs, or $3-10/kW-km, over a typical distance of 10-70 km. But the requirement to fund network upgrade costs can push grid connections to cost more than developing renewables projects themselves?!
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Power transmission: raising electrical potential?

Electricity transmission matters in the energy transition, integrating dispersed renewables over long distances to reach growing demand centers. This 15-page note argues future transmission needs will favor large HVDCs, costing 2-3c/kWh per 1,000km, which are materially lower-cost and more efficient than other alternatives.
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High voltage transmission cables: power parameters?

This data-file aggregates technical parameters of ultra high-voltage power lines. The average one transmits 6.5GW, at 800-1,000kV and 4,000 Amps, over a distance of 1,500 km. Every 500 meters, there is a 70m tall tower. The power lines have total mass of 200 tons/km, 2-3% losses per 1,000km and c$3M/mile costs.
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EV fast charging: opening the electric floodgates?

This 14-page note explains the crucial power-electronics in an electric vehicle fast-charging station, running at 150-350kW. Most important are power-MOSFETs, comprising c5-10% of charger costs. The market trebles by the late 2020s.
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Power-MOSFETs: leading companies?

Power MOSFETs are an energy transition technology, the building block behind inverters, DC-DC converters, EV drive trains, EV chargers and other renewables-battery interfaces. Hence this data-file is a screen of companies making power MOSFETs, especially new and higher-efficiency devices using Silicon Carbide as the semi-conductor.
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Electric vehicles: chargers of the light brigade?

This 14-page note compares the economics of EV charging stations with conventional fuel retail stations. Our main question is whether EV chargers will ultimately get over-built. Hence prospects may be best for charging equipment and component manufacturers.
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Power plants: cold starts and ramp rates?

This data-file aggregates the ramp-up rates of power generation sources, as they start up from "cold", and then as they ramp up (in MW per minute). Hydro and simple cycle gas turbines are fastest, followed by CCGTS, coal and nuclear.
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Electric motors: variable star?

Variable frequency drives precisely control motors. Amazingly they could reduce global electricity demand by c10%. We expect a sharp acceleration due to sustained energy shortages, increasingly renewable-heavy grids and excellent 20-50% IRRs. Hence this 14-page note reviews the opportunity and who benefits. 
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Variable frequency drives: the economics?

Variable frequency drives optimize the operating speeds of electric motors. Average energy saving are 34% and average costs are $250/kW. Hence our modelling calculates >15% IRRs installing a VFD at a typical industrial motor. This data-file captures the economics.
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Variable frequency drives: leading companies?

This data-file outlines the top twenty companies producing variable frequency drives to precisely control electric motors. The top three companies are European capital goods players. High-quality VFDs may protect against growing competition from China.
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Grid volatility: are batteries finally in the money?

UK power price volatility has exploded in 2021. The average daily range has risen 4x from 2019-20, to 35c/kWh in 3Q21. At this level, grid-scale batteries are strongly ‘in the money’. So will the high volatility persist? This is the question in today's 6-page note.
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Synchronous condensers: the economics?

This data-file captures the costs of installing a synchronous condenser, downstream of a renewable power facility, to emulate the inertia, reactive power and short circuit power from conventional generators. 1.0 - 2.5 c/kWh of costs may be added to the power supplies flowing out of the SC.
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Industrial energy and electricity consumption by sector?

The average factory consumes 9GWH of energy per year, of which 5GWH is thermal heat and 4GWH is electricity. Of the electricity c50% is for rotating machinery, c10% for electric heat, c10% for process cooling, c7% for electrochemical processes, c10% for facility HVAC and c6% for lighting.
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Power grids: tenet?

How do power grids work? How will they be re-shaped by renewables? This 20-page note outlines the underpinnings of electricity markets, from theoretical physics through to looming shortages of inertia and reactive power. There are challenges back-stopping renewables and this creates opportunities.
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Inter-correlations between solar assets?

This data-file aggregates granular data from seven solar assets around Western Europe over a sample week. Absolute volatility is around 2-4% of nominal capacity every 15-minutes, while inter-correlations range from 60-90% depending on the distance between the different assets.
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Integrated gas and renewable power?

Ths data-file captures how to supply 100MWe and 1,000GWH pa of energy to a mid-sized consumer: reliably, at a low-cost and with zero net CO2 emissions. We think this is possible at a delivered power price below 10c/kWh, which is highly competitive.
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Transformers: rise of the beasts?

A transformer is needed to step the voltage up or down at every inter-connection point in the grid. Hence this 14-page note explores how renewables and EVs will expand future transformer markets. The main challenge is that the need for smaller, simpler units may exacerbate margin pressure in an already competitive industry. So who is … Continue reading "Transformers: rise of the beasts?"
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Power plants: average capacity?

This data-file aggregates granular data into the average capacity of different types of power plants: wind, solar, nuclear, gas, hydro, coal, biomass, landfill gas and geothermal. Energy transition is going to increase the number of inter-connections to the grid by 10-100x.
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Transformer market: companies and costs?

This data-file aims to tabulate helpful data on the grid-scale transformer industry, covering the sizes (tons), costs ($/kW) and companies in the space. Margin pressure looks challenging, amidst material re-inflation, and a competitive set of capital goods giants and emerging Chinese companies.
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Power cables: how much aluminium and copper?

This data-file is a simple calculator to estimate the amount of copper and aluminium required in conducting cables, such as for wind or solar plants, or for electric vehicle fast-chargers. A typical EV charger might use 100kg of copper while a renewable power plant uses 100T of aluminium.
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Gas turbines: what market size in energy transition?

CHP systems are 20-30% lower-carbon than gas turbines, as they capture waste heat. They are also increasingly economical to backstop renewables. Amidst uncertain policies, the market size for US CHPs could vary by a factor of 100x. We nevertheless find 30 companies well-placed in a $9trn global market.
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Power grids: hell is a hot, still summer’s day?

Ramping renewables to 50% of power grids is a growing aspiration in the energy transition. But in some markets, it may result in devastating blackouts during summer heatwaves, as power demand doubles exactly when wind, solar, gas, transmission losses and disruptions all deteriorate. This 15-page note assesses the implications.
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Power generation: sensitivity to high-temperature heatwaves?

This data-file aims to provide a simple model for how generally well-covered grids can fail catastrophically during a heatwave. We have drawn on technical papers to quantify the deterioration of solar, gas, transmission and distribution losses, wind and other generation sources at higher temperatures.
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Inter-correlations between offshore wind farms?

This data-file examines the correlations between different wind farms' generation rates. The output from individual wind farms is 67% correlated on average, at any given point in time, and as high as 90% with a 100km x 100km area. Auto-correlation was also high, as windy/non-windy periods can last 2-10 days.
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Power capacity of a typical home?

A typical home in the developed world currently has a 10kW maximum power capacity before tripping its circuit-breaker (although it varies). This could easily double in the energy transition, due to phasing back gas heating, gas cooking and the addition of home charging stations for electric vehicles.
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Data-centers: electricity use and demand shifting?

This data-file estimates data-centers' electricity use and ability to demand shift. Large data centers how power demand in the range of 50-500MW. Around 40% of their electrical loads can demand shift, to help smooth out the volatility of renewables?
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Cryogenic air separation: costs and energy economics?

This data-file calculates the costs of cryogenic air separation units, which are important in the production of industrial gases, ammonia, metals, materials, medical applications and new energy technologies such as blue hydrogen. Good base cases are $100/ton oxygen, $20/ton nitrogen, $200/Tpa capex and 60kWh/ton of electricity (on an input air basis).
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Shifting demand: can renewables reach 50% of grids?

25% of the power grid could realistically become ‘flexible’, shifting its demand across days, even weeks. This is the lowest cost and most thermodynamically efficient route to fit more wind and solar into power grids. We are upgrading our renewables ceilings from 40% to 50%. This 22-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Hydro electric power: the economics?

A typical hydro project requires a 10c/kWh power price and a $50/ton CO2 price to generate an unlevered IRR of 10%. 80% of the cost is capex. Hence at a 6% hurdle rate, the incentive price falls to 6c/kWh. Cash opex is 2c/kWh. CO2 intensity is effectively nil, even after reflecting the construction energy.
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Electric arc furnaces for lower-carbon steel production?

Electric arc furnaces generate enormous amounts of heat to recycle scrap steel, with 85% lower CO2 emissions than primary steel production. Our base case model yields a 15% IRR at $475/ton steel prices and a 10c/kWh power price. However, IRRs could be uplifted 2-6pp by integrating with renewables.
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Electric vehicle charging: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of electric vehicle chargers, by disaggregating the costs of different charger types. Economics are most favorable where they lead to incremental retail purchases and for faster chargers. Economics are least favorable around apartments, charging at work and for slower charging speeds.
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Prevailing wind: new opportunities in grid volatility?

UK wind power has almost trebled since 2016. But its output is volatile, now varying between 0-50% of the total grid. Hence this 14-page note assesses the volatility, using granular, hour-by-hour data from 2020, to outline which backup opportunities are best-placed.
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UK grid volatility as renewables gain share?

This data-file contains the output from some enormous data-pulls, evaluating UK grid power generation by source, its volatility, and the relationship to hourly traded power prices. We conclude the grid is growing more expensive and volatile, with the increasing share of wind.
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Smart Energy: technology leaders?

Smart meters and smart devices are capable of transmitting and receiving real-time consumption data and instructions. This data-file tracks 40 leading companies, mostly at the venture and growth stages. They help lower demand, smooth grid volatility and encourage appliance upgrades.
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Turbo-charge gas turbines: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of turbo-charging gas turbines, which increases the mass flow of combustion air, to improve their power ratings by c10-20%. IRRs are solid. Turbo-charged gas turbines could thus gain greater share as grids become saturated with renewables
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HVDC power transmission: the economics?

This model captures the economics of transporting electricity (e.g., wind and solar), over vast distances, using high voltage direct current power cables (HVDCs). Our base case shows a 3-10c/kWh transportation spread is required to earn a 10% levered IRR on 1,000-mile cable.
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Exhaust gas recirculation in gas power: the economics?

This data-file explores an alternative design for a combined cycle gas turbine, re-circulating exhaust gases after combustion, in order to facilitate CO2 capture. Costs and operating parameters are summarized from recent technical papers. Even with EGR, it will be challenging to decarbonize a gas turbine for less than $100/ton.
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A new case for gas: what if renewables get overbuilt?

Overbuilding renewables may make power grids more expensive and less reliable. Hence more businesses may choose to generate their own power behind the meter, installing combined heat and power systems fuelled by natural gas. IRRs reach 20-30%. Efficiency is 70-80%. Total CO2 falls by 6-30%. This 17-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Backstopping renewables: cold storage beats battery storage?

Phase change materials could be a game-changer for energy storage. They can earn double digit IRRs unlocking c20% efficiency gains in freezers and refrigerators, which make up 9% of US electricity. This is superior to batteries which add costs and incur 8-30% efficiency losses. We review 5,800 patents and identify leading companies.
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Desalination by reverse osmosis: the economics?

35bn tons of desalinated water are produced each year, absorbing 250 TWH of energy, or 0.4% of total global energy consumption. These numbers will likely rise, due to demographic trends, and due to climate change. Desalination costs average $1.0/m3, use 3.5kWh/m3 of electricity and can demand shift.
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Variable Power Tariffs Exacerbate Social Inequalities?

This data-file tabulates the impacts of variable electricity tariffs, after a large-scale US sample. Demand is inelastic, falling just 1% for a 20% price-increase. However, socially "vulnerable" consumers suffered disproportionately, with bills rising 4% more than non-vulnerable consumers.
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Fast-charge the electric vehicles with gas?

There is upside for natural gas, as EV penetration rises: we model that gas turbines can economically power fast-chargers for 13c/kWh. Carbon emissions are lowered by c70% compared with oil. And the grid is spared from power demand surges. Download our data-file to stress-test the sensitivities.
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Hydrogen Research

Hydrogen: overview and conclusions?

We think the best opportunities in hydrogen will be to decarbonize gas at source via blue and turquoise hydrogen, displacing 'black hydrogen' that currently comes from coal, and to produce small-scale feedstock on site via electrolysis for select industries. Others see green hydrogen as a cornerstone of the future energy system. We think there may be better options elsewhere.
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Bright green hydrogen from biomass gasification?

Woody biomass can be converted into clean hydrogen via gasification. If the resultant CO2 is sequestered, each ton of hydrogen may be associated with -20 tons of CO2 disposal. The economies of hydrogen from biomass gasification require $11/kg-e revenues for a 10% IRR on capex of $3,000/Tpa of biomass, or lower, with CO2 disposal incentives.
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Nafion membranes: costs and hydrogen crossover?

Perfluorinated sulfonate (PFSA) membranes, such as Nafion, are the crucial enabler for PEM electrolyzers, fuel cells and other industrial processes. The market is worth $750M pa. The key challenges are costs, longevity and hydrogen crossover, which are tabulated in this data-file.
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Electrochemistry: redox potential?

Batteries, electrolysers and cleaner metals/materials value chains all hinge on electrochemistry. Hence this 19-page note explains the energy economics from first principles. The physics are constructive for lithium and next-gen electrowinning, but perhaps challenge green hydrogen aspirations?
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Density of gases: by pressure and temperature?

The density of gases matters in turbines, compressors, for energy transport and energy storage. Hence this data-file models the density of gases from first principles, using the Ideal Gas Equations and the Clausius-Clapeyron Equation. High energy density is shown for methane, less so for hydrogen and ammonia. CO2, nitrogen, argon and water are also captured.
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Hydrogen evolution: outlook for industrial gases?

110MTpa of hydrogen is produced each year, emitting 1.3GTpa of CO2. We think the market doubles to 220MTpa by 2050. This is c60% ‘below consensus’. Decarbonization also disrupts 80% of today’s asset base. Our outlook varies by region. This 17-page note explores the evolution of hydrogen markets and implications for industrial gas incumbents?
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Global hydrogen supply-demand: by region, by use & over time?

Global production of hydrogen is around 110MTpa in 2023, of which c30% is for ammonia, 25% is for refining, c20% for methanol and c25% for other metals and materials. This data-file estimates global hydrogen supply and demand, by use, by region, and over time, with projections through 2050.
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Plug power: green hydrogen breakthroughs?

Our Plug Power technology review is drawn from the company's recent patent filings, which offer some of the most detailed disclosures we have ever seen into the manufacturing of PEM electrolysers and fuel cells, underlying catalyst materials, membranes and their manufacturing. One patent seems like a breakthrough. Other patents candidly presented challenges.
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MIRALON: turquoise hydrogen breakthrough?

MIRALON is an advanced material, being commercialized by Huntsman, purifying carbon nanotubes from the pyrolysis of methane and also yielding turquoise hydrogen. This data-file reviews MIRALON technology, patents, and a strong moat. Our model sees 15% IRRs if Huntsman reaches a medium-term cost target of $10/kg MIRALON and $1/kg H2.
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Bloom Energy: solid oxide fuel cell technology?

This data-file reviews Bloom Energy's solid oxide fuel cell technology. What surprised us most was a candid overview of degradation pathways of solid oxide fuel cells, a focus on improving the longevity of fuel cells, albeit this sometimes seems to be via heavy uses of Rare Earth metals, and increasing complexity. The patents do suggest a moat around Bloom Energy fuel cell technology.
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Hydrogen reformers: SMR versus ATR?

Blue hydrogen value chains are gaining momentum. Especially in the US. So this 16-page note contrasts steam-methane reforming (SMR) versus autothermal reforming (ATR). Each has merits and challenges. ATR looks excellent for clean ammonia. While the IRA creates CCS upside for today’s SMR incumbents, across industrial gases, refining and chemicals.
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US hydrogen production: by facility and by company?

10MTpa of hydrogen is produced in the US, of which 40% is sold by industrial gas companies, 20-25% is generated on site at refineries, 20% at ammonia plants and 15-20% in chemicals/methanol. This datafile breaks down US hydrogen production by facility. Owners of existing steam methane reforming units may readily be able to capture CO2 and benefit from CO2 disposal credits under the US Inflation Reduction Act?
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Industrial gas separation: swing producers?

Swing Adsorption separates gases, based on their differential loading onto zeolite adsorbents at varying Pressures. The first PSA plant goes back to 1966. Today, tens of thousands of PSA plants purify hydrogen, biogas, polymers, nitrogen/oxygen and possibly in the future, can capture CO2? This 16-page note explores the technology, costs, challenges, companies.
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Adiabatic flame temperature: hydrogen, methane and oil products?

At an idealized, 100% stoichiometric ratio, the adiabatic flame temperature for natural gas is 1,960ºC, hydrogen burns 300ºC hotter at 2,250ºC and oil products burn somewhere in between, at around 2,150ºC. The calculations show why hydrogen cannot always be dropped into an existing turbine or heat engine.
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Topsoe: autothermal reforming technology?

Topsoe autothermal reforming technology aims to maximize the uptime and reliability of blue hydrogen production, despite ultra-high combustion temperatures from the partial oxidation reaction, while achieving high energy efficiency, 90-97% CO2 capture and
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Combustion fuels: density, ignition temperature and flame speed?

The quality of a combustion fuel comes down to its physical and chemical properties. Hence the purpose of this data-file is to aggregate data into different fuels' energy content (kg/m3), energy density (kWh/kg, kWh/gal), flash point (ºC), auto-ignition point (ºC) and flame speed (m/s, cm/s). Conclusions about high quality fuels follow.
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Blue ammonia: options strategy?

Blue ammonia can economically decarbonize the fertilizer industry, using low-cost natural gas; with options to decarbonize combustion fuels in the future. This report covers where we see the best opportunities, as reforms to the 45Q have already kick-started a 20MTpa boom of new US projects.
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Sabatier process: synthetic natural gas costs?

The Sabatier process combines CO2 and hydrogen to yield synthetic natural gas using a nickel catalyst at 300-400C. A gas price of $100/mcf is needed for a 10% IRR, energy penalties exceed 75% and CO2 abatement cost is $2,000/ton?
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NEL: green hydrogen technology review?

NEL is a green hydrogen technology company, headquartered in Oslo, listed on the Oslo Børs since 2014, and employing 575 people. It has manufactured 3,500 electrolyser units, going back to 1927, historically weighted to alkaline electrolysers, and increasingly focused on PEMs and hydrogen fuelling stations. This NEL technology review explores its patents.
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Energy policy: unleashing new technologies?

Does unprecedented policy support inherently de-risk new technology? This 10-page note is a case study. The Synthetic Fuels Corporation was created by the US Government in 1980. It was promised $88bn. But it missed its target to unleash 2Mbpd of next-generation fuels by 1992. There were four challenges. Are they worth remembering in new energies today?
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Costs of hydrogen from coal gasification?

What are the costs of hydrogen from coal gasification? This model looks line-by-line, across different plant configurations, aggregating data from technical papers. Black hydrogen costs $1-2/kg. But CO2 intensity is very high, as much as 25 tons/ton. It can possibly be decarbonized resulting in semi-clean hydrogen costing c$2.5/kg.
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Green hydrogen: can electrolysers run off renewables?

What degradation rate is expected for a green hydrogen electrolyser, if it is powered by volatile wind and solar inputs? This 15-page note reviews past projects and technical papers. 5-10% pa degradation rates would raise green hydrogen costs by $1/kg. Avoiding degradation justifies higher capex, especially on power-electronics and even batteries?
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Hydrogen: what GWP and climate impacts?

Hydrogen is an indirect GWP, as it breaks down in the atmosphere over 1-2 years, increasing the lifespan of other GHGs, such as methane. So what is hydrogen GWP versus methane? 1 ton of atmospheric H2 most likely causes 11x more warming than 1 ton of CO2 (the number for methane is 34x). Eight conclusions follow.
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Pressure ratings: industrial and energy processes?

The purpose of this data-file is to chart the typical pressures of industrial processes and energy processes, as a useful reference. We are all used to 1 atmosphere of pressure, which is 1.0125 bar, 0.10125 MPa and 14.7 psi. But what pressures do industrial processes use?
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Monolith: turquoise hydrogen breakthrough?

Monolith claims it is the "only producer of cost effective commercially viable clean hydrogen today" as it has developed a proprietary technology for methane pyrolysis. But overall this was not one of our most successful patent screens. Some specific question marks are noted in the data-file.  
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Turquoise hydrogen from methane pyrolysis: economics?

Turquoise hydrogen is produced by thermal decomposition of methane at high temperatures, from 600-1,200◦C. Costs can beat green hydrogen. This data-file quantifies the economics (in $/kg), how to generate 10% IRRs, possible capex costs, and remaining challenges for commercialization.
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Electro-fuels: start out as a billionaire?

Electro-fuels are hydrocarbons produced from renewable power, CO2 and water. They are reminiscent of the adage that ‘the fastest way to become a millionaire is to start out as a billionaire then found an airline’. Because all you need for 1boe of these zero-carbon fuels is 2-3 boe of practically free renewable energy.
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Green hydrogen electrolysers in Europe: a database?

This data-file derives conclusions into green hydrogen electrolysers in Europe, based on c240 distinct projects. The market is shifting away from smaller alkaline electrolyers to super-giant PEMs and SOECs. Key controversies are visibly emerging around power sources and hydrogen uses.
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Power-to-liquids: companies commercializing electro-fuels?

This data-file summarizes the details of c15 companies aiming to commercialise low-carbon electro-fuels, using power-to-liquids technologies, and their progress to-date. The average company was founded in 2015, with 5 patents and 15 employees. Although this is skewed towards 3-4 leaders.
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Power-to-liquids: the economics?

Liquid transport fuels with almost no CO2 emissions could be created from renewable energy, by electrolysing water and CO2, then combining the hydrogen and CO, e.g., via Fischer Tropsch. This simple models stress tests the economics. Our base case estimates are for costs between $400-600/bbl ($10-14/gallon).
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Methanol: the next hydrogen?

Methanol is becoming more exciting than hydrogen as a clean fuel to help decarbonize transport. Specifically, blue methanol and bio-methanol are 65-75% less CO2-intensive than oil products, while they already earn 10% IRRs at c$3/gallon prices. Unlike hydrogen, it is simple to transport and integrate methanol with pre-existing vehicles.
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Methanol production: the economics?

This model captures the economics and CO2 intensity of methanol production in different chemical pathways. We find exciting potential for bio-methanol and blue methanol. These are logistically simple substitutes for oil products, but with lower carbon content. Full cost breakdowns can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Energy economics: energy content of combustion fuels?

The purpose of this data-file is to disaggregate the energy economics of combusting different fuels, including natural gas, different oil products, NGLs, coal, hydrogen, methanol, ammonia et al. The most effective way to blend more hydrogen into the energy mix is coal-to-gas switching, followed by using lighter oil products.
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Hydrogen blending: costs and complexities?

This data-file estimate the costs of blending hydrogen into pre-existing natural gas pipeline networks. Costs are relatively low per mcf of gas, but very high per ton of CO2 abated. Costs also rise exponentially, as more hydrogen is blended into the mix.
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Proton exchange membrane fuel cells: what challenges?

This data-file reviews fifty patents into proton exchange membrane fuel cells, filed by leading companies in the space in 2020, in order to understand the key challenges the industry is striving to overcome. The key focus areas are controlling temperature, humidity and longevity, but unfortunately this will tend to increase costs.
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Solid oxide fuel cells: what challenges?

This data-file reviews fifty patents into solid oxide fuel cells, filed by leading companies in 2020. The key focus areas are improving the longevity and efficiency of SOFCs. But unfortunately, we find many of the proposed solutions are likely to increase end costs. Potential is interesting, but deflation may take longer.
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Electrolysers: how much deflation ahead for hydrogen?

For green hydrogen to become competitive, total electrolyser costs must deflate by over 75% from current levels around $1,000/kW. This 14-page note breaks down the numbers and the challenges, based on patents and technical papers. We argue 15-25% total cost deflation may be more realistic if manufacturers also strive to make a margin.
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Hydrogen production via electrolysis: what challenges?

This data-file tabulates challenges for the production of green hydrogen via the electrolysis of water, based on the recent patent literature. Our overall conclusion is to be circumspect. Some sources of deflation compromise efficiency, safety, longevity and reliability.
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Hydrogen production via electrolysis: technology leaders?

This data-file tabulates the pace of progress into developing water electrolysers for green hydrogen production, looking across 13,600 patents globally. Fifteen leading companies are compared and contrasted.
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Deep blue: cracking the code of carbon capture?

Carbon capture is cursed by colossal costs at small scale. But blue hydrogen may be its saviour. Crucial economies of scale are guaranteed by deploying both technologies together. The combination is a dream scenario for gas producers. This 21-page note outlines the opportunity and costs.
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Methane reforming: costs of grey hydrogen, costs of blue hydrogen?

This data-file captures the economics of blue hydrogen production via reforming natural gas: either steam-methane reforming or auto-thermal reforming. Costs and operating parameters are compiled from technical papers. Blue hydrogen can be cost-competitive with CCS, while overall costs are most sensitive to gas prices.
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Vehicle costs: cars, SUVs, hybrids, EVs and hydrogen?

This data-file quantifies the cost per mile of vehicle ownership across different categories by correlating second hand car prices with their accumulated mileage. Hybrids and regular passenger cars are most economical. SUVs and EVs are 2x more expensive. Hydrogen vehicles depreciate fastest and will have lost over 90% of their value after 100,000 miles.
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Fuel cells: performance, efficiency and decline rates?

This data-file captures the performance of c160 fuel cell power plants, installed to-date in the US, generating over 2TWH of electricity, looking facility-by-facility, year-by-year. How has the performance, efficiency and longevity of US fuel cell power plants been trending over time?
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Hydrogen: lost in transportation?

Transporting hydrogen will be more challenging than any other energy commodity ever commercialised. This 19-page note reviews the costs and complexities of cryogenic trucks, pipelines and chemical carriers (e.g., ammonia). Midstream costs will be 2-10x higher than natural gas, while up to 50% of hydrogen’s embedded energy may be lost in transit.
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Transporting green hydrogen as ammonia or toluene?

Green hydrogen could be converted into ammonia, shipped like LPGs, then cracked back into green hydrogen in a developed world country. The best case costs are around $10/kg, while generating an IRR of 10%, with full, round-trip energy efficiency of c60%.
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Hydrogen reformers: technology leaders

This data-file assesses who has the leading technology for producing industrial hydrogen, but especially blue hydrogen from auto-thermal reformers, after reviewing public disclosures and 750 patents. Companies include Air Liquide, Air Products, Casale, Haldor Topsoe, Johnson Matthey, KBR, Linde, Thyssenkrupp.
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Green hydrogen trucks: delivery costs?

We have modelled full-cycle economics of a green hydrogen value chain to decarbonize trucks. In Europe, at $6/gallon diesel, hydrogen trucks will be 30% more expensive in the 2020s. They could be cost-competitive by the 2040s. But the numbers are generous and logistical challenges remain. Niche adoption is more likely than a wholesale shift.
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Hydrogen vehicles and fuelling stations: where’s the IP?

We cleaned 18,600 patents into hydrogen vehicles and vehicle fuelling stations. Technology leaders include large auto-makers, industrial gas companies, Energy Majors and hydrogen specialists. Overall, the patents indicate the array of challenges that must be solved to scale up hydrogen fuel in transport.
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Alternative truck fuels: how economic?

We have modelled the relative economics of different truck fuels. The incumbent, diesel, is compared with alternatives, such as hydrogen, LNG, Compressed Natural Gas and LPG, across 35 different metrics. Carbon-offset diesel is still the most economical trucking fuel.
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Green Hydrogen Economy: Holy Roman Empire?

We model the green hydrogen value chain: harnessing renewable energy, electrolysing water, storing the hydrogen, then generating usable power in a fuel cell. Today’s costs are very high, at 64c/kWh. Even by 2050, our best case scenario is 14c/kWh, which elevates household electricity bills by $440-990/year compared with decarbonizing natural gas.
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Hydrogen storage: the economics?

This model captures the costs of storing hydrogen, which appear to be much higher than storing natural gas. We estimate a $2.50/kg storage spread may be needed to earn a 10% IRR on a $500/kg storage facility, while costs could be deflated to $0.5/kg if nearby salt caverns are available and projects are large and efficient.
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Gas pipelines, CO2 pipelines, hydrogen pipelines?

This model captures the energy economics of a pipeline carrying natural gas, CO2 or hydrogen. It computes the required throughput tariff (in $/mcf or $/kg) to earn a 10% IRR. Hydrogen tariffs must be 2x new gas pipelines and 10x pre-existing gas pipelines. CO2 disposal is more economic at scale.
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Green hydrogen: the economics?

We have modelled the economics of a green hydrogen project, electrolysing water using renewable energy. An H2 price of $8/kg ($60/mcfe) is required to earn a 10% return. Costs data are captured. The most challenging input variable is not capex cost or efficiency, but utilization rate, if the project is to be truly green.
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Fuel Cell Power Project Economics

This data-file models the economics of constructing a new fuel-cell power project: generating electricity from grey, blue or green hydrogen. The model is based on technical papers and past projects around the industry. Economics look challenging. Our base case estimate is a 24c/kWh incentive price.
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Fuel Cell Patents: twenty years of progress?

This data-file tabulates the numbers of patents filed into different types of fuel-cells, from 2000-2020, globally and in key geographies: China, Japan, Korea and the US. Research activity peaked in 2008 and has since fallen by 30%. Japanese research has collapsed, while China's has ascended.
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Global hydrogen: market breakdown?

This data-file is a global hydrogen market breakdown, disaggregating the 110MTpa market (mainly ammonia, methanol and refining), how it is met via different production technologies, and our estimates of those technologies' costs (in $/kg) and CO2 intensities (in kg/kg or tons/ton).
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Power Trains? Electric, diesel or hydrogen

This data-file compares diesel trains, electric trains and hydrogen trains, according to their energy consumption, carbon emissions and fuel costs. The energy economics are best for electrifying rail-lines. Hydrogen costs must deflate 25-75% to be cost-competitive.
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Hydrogen Cars: how economic?

We model the relative economics of hydrogen cars, which are c85% costlier than US gasoline in our base case. In Europe, c20% cost-deflation could bring hydrogen cars close to competitiveness.
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Biofuels Research

Biofuel technologies: an overview?

Biofuels are currently displacing 3.5Mboed of oil and gas. But they are not carbon-free, and their weighted average CO2 emissions are only c50% lower. This data-file breaks down the biofuels market across seven key feedstocks, to help identify which opportunities can scale for the lowest costs and CO2, versus others that require further technical progress.
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Biogas: the economics?

Biogas costs are broken down in this economic model, generating a 10% IRR off $180M/kboed capex, via a mixture of $16/mcfe gas sales, $60/ton waste disposal fees and $50/ton CO2 prices. High gas prices and landfill taxes can make biogas economical in select geographies. Although diseconomies of scale reward smaller projects?
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Verbio: bio-energy technology review?

Verbio is a bio-energy company, founded in 2006, listed in Germany, producing bio-diesel, bioethanol, biogas, glycerin and fertilizers. The company has stated "we want to be in a position to convert anything that agriculture can deliver to energy". Our Verbio technology review is based on its patents. We find some fascinating innovations in cold mash ethanol, integrated with biogas production, and making biogas from lignocellulosic feedstock.
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Energy history: how much wood can be cut in a day?

How much wood can be cut in a day? We review 500-years of industrial history. In medieval times, a manorial tenant might have gathered 250kg of fallen branches in a day. A modern feller-buncher is 150x more productive. But a modern energy analyst is little better than a medieval peasant, and harvesting wood as a heating fuel is expensive, inconvenient and risk-prone.
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Crop production: how much does nitrogen fertilizer increase yields?

How much does fertilizer increase crop yields? Aggregating all of the global data, a good rule of thumb is that up to 200kg of nitrogen can be applied per acre, increasing corn crop yields from 60 bushels per acre (with no fertilizer) to 160 bushels per acre (at 200 kg/acre). But the relationship is logarithmic, with diminishing returns.
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Crop production: what CO2 intensity?

The CO2 intensity of producing corn averages 0.23 tons/ton, or 75kg/boe. 50% is from N2O emissions, a powerful greenhouse gas, from the breakdown of nitrogen fertilizer. Producing 1 kWh of food energy requires 9 kWh of fossil energy.
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Bio-coke: energy economics?

Bio-coke is a substitute for coal-coke in steel-making and other smelting operations. We model it will cost c$450/ton, c50% more than coal-coke, but saves 2 - 2.5 tons/ton of CO2. Abatement costs can be as low as $70/ton. Although not always, and there are comparability issues.
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World food production: energy breakdown by crop by country?

World food production runs at 10 bn tons per year, equivalent to 25,000 TWH of primary energy, or 7,500 calories per person per day. Of this total, 30% is fed to animals, 30% is wasted, 5% is converted to biofuels and 2% is used in consumer products. Humans eat the remaining 2,500 calories per person per day.
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Palm oil: what CO2 intensity?

Global palm oil production runs at 80MTpa, for food, HPC and bio-fuels. Carbon intensity is 1.2 tons CO2e per ton of crude palm oil, excluding land use impacts, and 8.0 tons/ton on a global basis including land use impacts. This means once a bio-fuel has more than c35% palm oil in its feedstock, it is likely to be higher carbon than conventional diesel.
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Biofuels: the best of times, the worst of times?

How will food and energy shortages re-shape liquid biofuels? This 11-page note explores four questions. Could the US re-consider its ethanol blending to help world food security? Could rising cash costs of bio-diesel inflate global diesel prices to $6-8/gal? Will renewable diesel expansion be dialed back? What outlook for each biofuel in the energy transition?
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Wood use: what CO2 credentials?

The carbon credentials of wood are not black-and-white. They depend on context. This 13-page note draws out the numbers and five key conclusions. They count against deforestation, in favor of using waste wood, in favor of wood materials (with some debate around paper) and strongly in favor of natural gas.
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Landfill gas: rags to riches?

Methane emissions from landfills account for 2% of global CO2e. c70% of these emissions could easily be abated for c$5/ton, simply by capturing and flaring the methane. Going further, low cost uses of landfill gas in heat and power can also make good sense. But vast subsidies for landfill gas upgrading or RNG vehicles may not be cost-effective. 
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Landfill gas: the economics?

We estimate that a typical landfill facility may be able to capture and abate 70% of its methane leaks for a CO2-equivalent cost of $5/ton. Other landfill gas pathways get more complex and expensive. Raw and unprocessed landfill gas can be economical to commercialize at a cost of $2-4/mcfe.
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Danimer: bio-plastics breakthrough?

Danimer Scientific is a producer of PHA, a biodegradable plastic feedstock. PHA still has commercial challenges in its processing, mechanical properties and 4-5x higher costs than conventional plastics. Yet our patent review finds Danimer has made some specific, intelligible innovations, earning a solid score of 3.5 on our technology framework.
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LanzaTech: biofuels breakthrough?

LanzaTech aspires to "take waste carbon emissions and convert them" into sustainable fuels (and bio-plastics) with a >70% CO2 reduction. We have assessed its patents but concluded we cannot yet de-risk the CO2-to-fuels pathway in our energy transition models.
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Origin Materials: bio-plastics breakthrough?

Origin Materials went public via SPAC in February-2021, as it was acquired by Artius Acquisition Inc at a valuation of $1.8bn. Its ambition is to use wood residues to create carbon-negative plastics, cost-competitively with petroleum products. This data-file outlines our conclusions from reviewing patents.
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Ethanol: hangover cures?

Could new technologies reinvigorate corn-based ethanol? This 12-page  note assesses three options. We are constructive on combining CCS or CO2-EOR with an ethanol plant, which yields a carbon-negative fuel. But costs and CO2 credentials look more challenging for bio-plastics or alcohol-to-jet fuels. 
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Ethanol-to-ethylene: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of producing bio-ethylene by dehydration of ethanol. We estimate an ethylene price of $1,600/Tpa is required for a 10% IRR, which is almost 2x higher than a conventional ethane cracker. In a best case scenario, costs could fall below $1,000/ton.
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Ethanol: getting wasted?

30M acres of US croplands are used to grow corn for ethanol, with a CO2 abatement cost of $200/ton. However, if these same acres were reforested, they could absorb 2x more CO2, while farmers in the mid-West could have higher earnings. Hence could US biofuels be disrupted?
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Ethanol from corn: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of producing ethanol from corn. Our base case requires a price of $1.6/gallon of ethanol for a 10% IRR on a new greenfield plant, equivalent to $2.4/gallon gasoline. 40% of the US corn crop is diverted into biofuels, but the rationale is marginal.
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Biogas-to-liquids: decarbonize aviation fuels?

This 15-page report evaluates a pathway for sustainable aviation fuels, feeding biogas into a Fischer-Tropsch reactor. Bio-GTL will likely cost 3x more than conventional jet fuel, for a 75% reduction in CO2, giving an abatement cost of $550/ton. We still prefer nature-based carbon offsets to decarbonize aviation.
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Biochar: burnt offerings?

Biochar is a miraculous material, improving soils, enhancing agricultural yields and avoiding 1.4kg of net CO2 emissions per kg of waste biomass. IRRs surpass 20% without CO2 prices or policy support. Hence this 18-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Biomass to biochar: the economics?

Biochar is a carbon negative material, according to our accounting, locking as much as 0.5kg of CO2 into soils per kg of dry biomass inputs. It can also be highly economical, with a base case IRR of 25%. Our full model allows you to stress-test input assumptions.
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Leading companies in biochar?

This screen tabulates details of almost twenty leading companies in the production and commercialization of biochar. The average company was founded in 2012, has 8 employees and 1.2 patents, showing an early-stage and competitive space.
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Next-generation plastics: bioplastic, biodegradable, recycled?

This data-file captures 17 plastic products derived from mechanical recycling, biologically-sourced feedstocks or that is bio-degradable. The 'greenest" plastics are c30% lower in CO2 than conventional plastics, but around 2x more costly.
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Methanol production: the economics?

This model captures the economics and CO2 intensity of methanol production in different chemical pathways. We find exciting potential for bio-methanol and blue methanol. These are logistically simple substitutes for oil products, but with lower carbon content. Full cost breakdowns can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Biomass and BECCS: what future in the transition?

20% of Europe’s renewable electricity currently comes from biomass, mainly wood pellets, burned in facilities such as Drax’s, 2.6GW Yorkshire plant. But what are the economics and prospects for biomass power as the energy transition evolves? This 18-page analysis leaves us cautious.
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Biomass power: costs, levelized costs and BECCS?

This data-file captures the economics of producing wood pellets, generating electricity from biomass, and potentially also building a further CCS facility to yield 'carbon negative power' (which is nevertheless more CO2 intensive than burning gas!). Our numbers are backstopped by industry data, including 340 US biomass plants.
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Renewable diesel: the economics?

Our base case is that a US renewable diesel facility must achieve $4.6/gallon sales revenues (which is c$200/bbl) as it commercializes a product with up to 75% lower embedded emissions than conventional diesel. Similarly, a bio-diesel facility must achieve $3.6/gallon sales on a product with 60% lower embedded emissions.
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Biofuels: better to bury than burn?

The global bioethanol industry could be disrupted by a carbon price. Somewhere between $15-50/ton, it becomes more economical to bury the biofuel crop, rather than convert it into biofuels. This would remove 8x more CO2 per acre, at a lower total cost. Ethanol mills and blenders would be displaced.
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Biomass to biofuel, or biomass for burial?

Greater decarbonization at a lower cost is achievable by burying biomass (such as corn or sugarcane) rather than converting it into bio-ethanol. This model captures the economics. Detailed costs and CO2 comparisons are shown under different iterations. 
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US ethanol plants: what CO2 intensity?

US bioethanol plants produce 1Mbpd of liquid fuels, with an average CO2 intensity of 85kg/boe. Overall, corn-based bioethanol has c40% lower CO2 than oil products. We screened the leaders and laggards by CO2-intensity, covering Poet, Valero, Great Plains, Koch, Marathon and White Energy.
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Biofuel, green diesel, renewable diesel: where’s the IP?

This data-file tracks 5,000 patents filed into biofuels: by geography, by company and particularly in 2017-20. The pace of research activity has been waning since 2014. Sinopec screens as the technology leader. The data-file also identifies the 'Top Ten' Western companies, ranked by recent patent filings.
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Carbon Offsets vs Renewable Diesel?

Could the rise of reforestation initiatives erode the value of renewable diesel? This data-file calculates purchasing CO2-credits to decarbonise diesel could cost 60-90% less than purchasing renewable diesel, at current pricing. Economically justified premia for biofuels are calculated.
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