Energy transition research & technologies

The energy industry is going through its greatest ever period of change, to meet the world’s future energy needs, but remove all of the CO2. We help leading decision makers find opportunities in the energy transition, with data-driven research and economic analysis.

Economic analysis is crucial. We all see hyperbolic headlines, around wind, solar, batteries, hydrogen, fuel cells and other breakthrough technologies. But what is their true impact? Are they technically ready? What do they cost? Where are the risks? What are the resource bottlenecks to ramp them up? Which companies have patented the leading technologies? What role remains for oil, gas, shale or LNG in a decarbonized energy system? And most excitingly, what are the ‘non-obvious’ opportunities that will help the world reach ‘net zero’, but are not yet widely recognized?

These are the questions that we answer in our energy transition research. Each week we publish a deep-dive report into a specific topic. Each day we also publish new economic datapoints and models. The goal is to make our readers into the smartest decision-makers in the energy transition.

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All of our energy transition research is linked TSE insights page Additionally, you can follow us on LinkedIn or Twitter. Full details on our subscription service are linked work with us page. Please scroll down the page for our research philosophy, an overview of our conclusions into the energy transition, and a summary of some of our recent research…

Our Philosophy

What is our energy research philosophy? The world needs better energy. To make this happen, economic opportunities must be better understood by leading decision-makers.

Our mission is to bridge this gap, with differentiated, data-driven analysis into the energy transition, energy technologies and their impacts.

Our philosophy is that research should be unbundled and transparent, hence all the data-files underpinning our work can be downloaded via our energy transition research portal.

We help our clients find opportunities in better energy technologies, find opportunities in the energy transition and avoid the mounting risks and bubbles.

We practice what we preach and our organization has been CO2-neutral since its inception, including ongoing contributions to nature-based CO2 removal projects.

Our organization is named in homage to ‘What the Thunder Said‘, which is the final section, and the resolution, of T. S. Eliot’s 1922 masterpiece, the Waste Land.

We humbly hope our energy research philosophy can help the world avoid becoming a Waste Land of energy poverty and climate change.

For a video overview of our research philsophy, we have also distilled our views around what makes great research?

Energy Technologies and Transition

Our research finds opportunities in energy technologies and the energy transition, drawing on technical papers, patents, and economic modelling.

We screen new energy technologies with world-changing potential, including:

The Energy Transition. Our work points to an economic decarbonization of the entire energy industry by 2050, with a CO2 price that averages $40/ton.

The Ascent of Renewables will deliver an enormous 30,000 TWH of energy by 2050, but this also requires overcoming vast bottlenecks, in metals, materials and power grids.

Fossil fuels retain a role in the decarbonized energy system, but must be the cleanest, most efficient fossil fuels possible, and the remaining CO2 must be captured of offset.

The Ascent of Gas and LNG will see clean-burning natural gas demand doubling in the energy mix by 2050, including the emergence of decarbonized gas.

Carbon offsets and nature-based solutions will emerge as a vast, $400bn market. They offer low-cost decarbonization and will displace higher-cost alternatives.

The Ascent of Shale. Continued improvements will give shale the capability to produce 25-30Mbpd of oil, at $25-30/bbl break-evens.

The Industry Must Adapt. All of the changes above require incumbent companies to digitize, deflate, improve their use of technology and lower their CO2 intensities.

We Rank Companies’ technical capabilities, to quantify who is leading the field, based on a patent framework to help identify risks and identify companies with an edge.

We use a Monte Carlo approach, to tie together the themes above and forecast energy markets.

Our “Top Technologies in Energy” are ranked here, tying all of our work together. We also screen which public companies and private companies are tied to our thematic insights.

Insights

Our latest ideas in the energy transistion are summarized here in chronological order, across wind, solar, battery, gas, CCS and nature. Our full research portal contains a more comprehensive summary of all of our energy transition research.

The page below may also be useful, if you would like to read the outlines of all of our published research research notes, and simply explore some of our ideas, around opportunities in the energy transition.

October 31, 2024October 31, 2024

Metal Organic Frameworks: sorting hat?

Illustration of the structure of CALF-20's metal organic framework

Metal Organic Frameworks (MOFs) are a game-changer for industrial separation, which consumes c10% of global energy. Activity is surging. This 18-page report reviews MOFs’ recent progress and future promise. As a case study, CALF-20 can deflate CCS costs by c50%, per Svante’s TSA process.

October 25, 2024November 1, 2024

Commodity intensity of global GDP in 30 key charts?

Intensities of oil and other materials for the global GDP have fallen over time, but electricity intensity has increased.

The commodity intensity of global GDP has fallen at -1.2% over the past half-century, as incremental GDP is more services-oriented. So is this effect adequately reflected in our commodity outlooks? This 4-page report plots past, present and forecasted GDP intensity factors, for 30 commodities, from 1973->2050. Oil is anomalous. And several commodities show rising GDP intensity.

October 24, 2024October 25, 2024

Solar plus batteries: the case for co-deployment?

The percentage of solar output dispatched to the grid depending on the capacity of the interconnection and the capacity of co-deployed batteries.

This 9-page study finds unexpectedly strong support for co-deploying grid-scale batteries together with solar. The resultant output is stable, has synthetic inertia, is easier to interconnect in bottlenecked grids, and can be economically justified. What upside for grid-scale batteries?

Work With Us

We add value to some of the leading decision-makers in energy and investing; publishing differentiated research, data and models, focused on energy technologies and energy transition, sent out daily to the Thunder Said Energy distribution list.

Our clients include 265 world-class companies: corporations, investors and private equity firms, navigating the energy transition. Please see our pricing sheet for further details on our subscriptions.

Sign up below to receive our best ideas and insights newsletter (free) or contact us. This will subscribe you to the Thunder Said Energy distribution list, and also create a log-in to our research portal.

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If you can spare a few moments, please do let us know of any focus areas that you find particularly exciting, in the world of energy, energy technologies or energy transition. Hopefully, as a result, we can make sure that the best ideas from our research reach you. Our email preference page is linked here.

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More About Thunder Said Energy

We help leading decision-makers identify economic opportunities that will drive the energy transition, re-shape energy markets and give companies an edge. Please find out how we can save you time and help your process in our highlights-presentation below…

More About Our Team and Background

A short biography of Thunder Said Energy’s founder and CEO, Rob West, is available on our About Us page.

More About Our Distribution List

We send our daily newsletter to the 11,000 individuals on our distribution list, which covers the best ideas from our recent research into the energy transition. Often this includes more time-sensitive commentary, compared to what is posted on the website. The best way to join the distribution list is via filling in the contact form above.