‘What the Thunder Said’ is the final section of T. S. Eliot’s 1922 masterpiece, the Waste Land. The poem describes a bleak and unproductive world. Nothing will grow. We think it is important to avoid the world becoming a Waste Land. Environmentally. Industrially For investors. So we humbly hope that Thunder Said Energy’s research into the energy transition can help.
An Environmental Waste Land?
“What branches grow out of this stony rubbish? Son of man, you cannot say, or guess, for you know only a heap of broken images, where the sun beats, and the dead tree gives no shelter, the cricket no relief, and the dry stone no sound of water. Come in under the shadow of this red rock, and I will show you something different from either your shadow at morning striding behind you or your shadow at evening rising to meet you. I will show you fear in a handful of dust”.
The primary motivation for the energy transition is to avoid Planet Earth becoming a Waste Land due to the destruction of the natural world, rising global temperatures, and a planet that ultimately becomes unhospitable.
Global temperatures have risen by over 1.2C since pre-industrial times (data below), which is primarily due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, rising methane concentrations and other greenhouse gases, and there are pathways looming that will see 3-8C of global warming by the end of the century.
The reasons for rising atmospheric CO2 span across a constellation of over 40 industries, which each explain more than 0.5% of the world’s CO2. These industries have another name — “the entire global economy”. It is tempting to scapegoat one or two industries. But it is unproductive. Ultimately, a credible roadmap to net zero must address every single bar on the chart below. This requires finding constructive solutions.
In our view, the saddest source of CO2 emissions is from the destruction of nature. Each year 10M hectares of primary forest is destroyed, which releases more CO2 than all of the world’s passenger cars. One third of the world’s primary forests have been destroyed in total, releasing an average of 200 tons of CO2-equivalents from 5bn acres of the Earth’s surface. This is 1 trillion tons of CO2-equivalents, and possibly as much as one-third of all anthropogenic emissions to-date. It has negative consequences for 40M species on planet Earth. Hence a large part of our roadmap to net zero specifically focused on restoring nature, forests and high-quality CO2 removals.
An Industrial Waste Land?
“Phlebas the Phoenician, a fortnight dead, forgot the cry of gulls, and the deep sea swell, and the profit and loss. A current under sea picked his bones in whispers”.
Devastating energy shortages have their own problems, which are also detrimental to human civilization. Following $600bn of cumulative under-investment, global energy markets are likely to be 2-10% under-supplied through 2030. As a result, energy prices must rise to the level that “destroys demand”. In turn, higher energy prices are likely to absorb an additional 10% of global GDP, which remarkably, is a 3x higher cost than the energy transition itself.
Clearly, categorically, restoring the world’s energy surplus should be an important goal of the ESG movement, as important decarbonization itself. This is not instead of achieving an energy transition. It is so that we can achieve an energy transition. The note below outlines this point, clearly, concisely.
What the Thunder Said — the resolution?
“I sat upon the shore Fishing, with the arid plain behind me, Shall I at least set my lands in order? Hieronymo’s mad againe … These fragments I have shored against my ruins”.
The Waste Land’s narrator seems to descend further into madness, as the poem continues. We can sympathize. In our research into the energy transition, we have reviewed hundreds of technologies, modelled the value chains across over one hundred different industrial processes that all need to be decarbonized, and attempted to educate ourselves on the overwhelming complexities of power grids, metals and materials, energy efficiency technologies, modelled dozens of supply-demand balances, and constructed over 1,000 different data-files.
“The black clouds gathered far distant over Himavant. The jungle crouched in silence. Waiting for rain… Then spoke the Thunder…. Datta, Dayadhvam, Damyata, Shantih, Shantih, Shantih”.
‘What the Thunder Said’ is the title of the Waste Land’s final section. It hints at a resolution, bringing rain to the dry Waste Lands below. Large clouds gather over the Himalayas and the thunder begins to speak a few words. Although they happen to be in Sanskrit, and remain painfully cryptic even once translated into English (thanks Eliot).
As a resolution across all of our research, our roadmap to net zero aims to integrate all of our research into a fully modeled pathway, which can meet the energy needs of the world, while also decarbonizing. We hope it is clear, non-cryptic and it is also backed up with dozens of models that can be be evaluated in more detail.
Avoiding An Investment Waste Land?
“Unreal City, Under the brown fog of a winter dawn, A crowd flowed London Bridge, so many, I had not thought the markets had undone so many. Sighs, short and infreuqent were exhaled And each man fixed his eyes before his feet. Flowed up the hill and down King William Street, to where Saint Mary Woolnoth kept the hours; With a dead sound on the final stroke of nine”.
Achieving an energy transition is not going to happen via divestment. Our roadmap to net zero requires primary spending in energy to rise from below $1trn pa today, to $4-5trn per annum. We hope our thematic research into the energy transition helps investors to find opportunities with exciting returns, where the technology “works”, and there are exciting opportunities to support. We have assessed over 1,000 companies to-date in our energy transition research, which is all available via the TSE research portal.
Chips must usually be kept below 27ºC, hence 10-20% of both the capex and energy consumption of a typical data-center is cooling, as explored in this 14-page report. How much does climate matter? What changes lie ahead? And which companies sell into this soon-to-double market for cooling equipment?
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Rising energy demands of AI are now the biggest uncertainty in all of global energy. To understand why, this 17-page note explains AI computing from first principles, across transistors, DRAM, GPUs and deep learning. GPU efficiency will inevitably increase, but compute increases faster. AI most likely uses 300-2,500 TWH in 2030, with a base case of 1,000 TWH.
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FERC regulations are surprisingly interesting!! In theory, gas pipelines are not allowed to have market power. But increasingly, they do have it: gas use is rising, on grid bottlenecks, volatile renewables and AI; while new pipeline investments are being hindered. So who benefits here? Answers are explored in this report.
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The power demands of AI will contribute to the largest growth of new generation capacity in history. This 18-page note evaluates the power implications of AI data-centers. Reliability is crucial. Gas demand grows. Annual sales of CCGTs and back-up gensets in the US both rise by 2.5x? This is our most detailed AI report to date.
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This 11-page note summarizes the key conclusions from our energy transition research in 1Q24 and across 1,400 companies that have crossed our screens since 2019. Volatility is rising. Power grids are bottlenecked. Hence what stands out in capital goods, clean-tech, solar, gas value chains and materials? And what is most overlooked?
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What if large quantities of power could be transmitted via the 2-6 GHz microwave spectrum, rather than across bottlenecked cables and wires? This 12-page note explores the technology, advantages, opportunities, challenges, efficiencies and costs. We still fear power grid bottlenecks.
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What if the world is entering an era of persistent power grid bottlenecks, with long delays to interconnect new loads? Everything changes. Hence this 16-page report looks across the energy and industrial landscape, to rank the implications across different sectors and companies.
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Power grids will be the biggest bottleneck in the energy transition, according to this 18-page report. Tensions have been building for a decade. They are invisible unless you are looking. And the tightness could last a decade. Further acceleration of renewables may be thwarted. And we are re-thinking grid back-ups.
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Energy transition is the largest construction project in human history. But building in boom times is associated with 2-3x cost inflation. This 10-page note reviews five case studies of prior capex booms, and argues for accelerating FIDs, even in 2024. The outlook for project developers depends on their timing? And who benefits across the supply chain?
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Solar semiconductors have changed the world, converting light into clean electricity. Hence can thermoelectric semiconductors follow the same path, converting heat into electricity with no moving parts? This 14-page report reviews the opportunity for thermoelectric generation in the energy transition, challenges, efficiency, costs and companies.
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We have attempted a detailed breakdown of global energy demand across 50 categories, to identify emerging opportunities in the energy transition, and suggesting upside to our energy demand forecasts? This 12-page note sets out our conclusions and is intended a useful reference.
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How much new solar can the world absorb in a given year? And are core markets such as the US now maturing? This 15-page note refines our solar forecasts using a new methodology. Annual solar adds will likely plateau at 50-100% of total electricity demand growth in most regions. What implications and adaptation strategies?
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Momentum behind enhanced geothermal has accelerated 3x in the past half-decade, especially in energy-short Europe, and as pilot projects have de-risked novel well designs. This 18-page report re-evaluates the energy economics of geothermal from first principles. Is there a path to cost-competitive, zero-carbon baseload heat?
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Oil markets endure 4 major volatility events per year, with a magnitude of +/- 320kbpd, on average. Their net impact detracts -100kbpd. OPEC and shale have historically buffered out the volatility, so annual oil output is 70% less volatile than renewables’ output. This 10-page note explores the numbers and the changes that lie ahead?
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Batteries, electrolysers and cleaner metals/materials value chains all hinge on electrochemistry. Hence this 19-page note explains the energy economics from first principles. The physics are constructive for lithium and next-gen electrowinning, but perhaps challenge green hydrogen aspirations?
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This 14-page note predicts a staggering increase in global energy market volatility, which doubles by 2050, while extreme events that sway energy balances by +/- 2% will become 250x more frequent. A key reason is that the annual output from wind, solar and hydro all vary by +/- 3-5% each year, while wind and solar will ramp from 5.5% to 30% of all global energy. Rising volatility can be a kingmaker for midstream companies? What other implications?
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The $1bn pa harmonic filter market likely expands by 10x in the energy transition, as almost all new energies and digital technologies inject harmonic distortion to the grid. This 17-page note argues for premiumization in power electronics, including around solar, and screens for who benefits?
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Navigating the energy transition in 2024 requires focusing in upon bright spots, because global energy priorities are shifting. Emerging nations are ramping coal to avoid energy shortages. Geopolitical tensions are escalating. So where are the bright spots? This 14-page note makes 10 predictions for 2024.
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150 core companies have been mentioned 700 times across all of our research since 2019; within a broader list of 1,300 total companies exposed to energy transition, diversified by geography, by size and by segment. This 12-page note draws conclusions about the most mentioned companies in our energy transition research.
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What is the most likely route to net zero by 2050, decarbonizing a planet of 9.5bn people, 50% higher energy demand, and abating 80GTpa of potential CO2? Net zero is achievable. But only with pragmatism. This 20-page report summarizes the best opportunities, resultant energy mix, bottlenecks for 30 commodities, and changes to our views in 2023.
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The costs of decarbonizing by ramping up solar and wind depend on the context. But our best estimate is that solar and wind can reach 40% of the global grid for a $60/ton average CO2 abatement cost. This is relatively low. Yet it raises retail electricity prices from 10c/kWh to 12c/kWh. This 7-page note explores the numbers.
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Wind and solar peak at 50-55% of power grids, without demand-shifting and batteries, before their economics become overwhelmed by curtailment rates and backup costs. More in wind-heavy grids. Less in solar heavy grids. This 12-page note draws conclusions from the statistical distribution of renewables’ generation across 100,000 x 5-minute grid intervals.
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This 15-page note evaluates 10 commodity disruptions since the Stone Age. Peak demand for commodities is just possible, in total tonnage terms, as part of the energy transition. But it is historically unprecedented. And our plateau in tonnage terms is a doubling in value terms, a kingmaker for gas, plastics and materials. Outlooks for 30 major commodities are reviewed.
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Thermal energy storage will outcompete other batteries and hydrogen for avoiding renewable curtailments and integrating more solar? Overlooked advantages are discussed in this 21-page report, plus a fast-evolving company landscape. What implications for solar, gas and industrial incumbents?
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The levelized cost of partial electricity (LCOPE) is very different from the levelized cost of total electricity (LCOTE). This 21-page note explores the distinction. It suggests renewables will peak at 30-60% of power grids? And gas is particularly well-placed as a back-up, set to surprise, by entrenching at 30-50% of renewables-heavy grids?
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We have assessed over 100 markets in energy, materials, manufacturing and decarbonization across our research. More concentrated industries achieve higher margins across the cycle. But not always. This 10-page report draws out seven rules of thumb around market concentration to help decision-makers.
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Redox flow batteries have 6-24 hour durations and require 15-20c/kWh storage spreads. They will increasingly compete with lithium ion batteries in grid-scale storage. Does this unlock a step-change for peak renewables penetration? Or create 3-30x upside for total global Vanadium demand? This 15-page note is our outlook.
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110MTpa of hydrogen is produced each year, emitting 1.3GTpa of CO2. We think the market doubles to 220MTpa by 2050. This is c60% ‘below consensus’. Decarbonization also disrupts 80% of today’s asset base. Our outlook varies by region. This 17-page note explores the evolution of hydrogen markets and implications for industrial gas incumbents?
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Semiconductors underpin solar panels, electric vehicles and electronics. Hence this 20-page note aims to explain semiconductor physics from first principles: their conductivity and resistance, their use in devices, plus implications for materials value chains and the energy transition itself?
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This 10-page note charts how fourteen commodities were affected, across a dozen conflicts, going back to 1800. During major conflicts, 95% of commodities saw higher prices. The average commodity doubled. There is a strong role for commodities hedging portfolios and even entire nations against conflicts.
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A new wave of DAC companies has been emerging rapidly since 2019, targeting 50-90% lower costs and energy penalties than incumbent S-DAC and L-DAC, potentially reaching $100/ton and 500kWh/ton in the 2030s. Five opportunities excite us and warrant partial de-risking in this 19-page report. Could DAC even beat batteries and hydrogen in smoothing renewable-heavy grids?
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Over the past decade, costs have deflated by 85% for lithium ion batteries, 75% for solar and 25% for onshore wind. Now new energies are entering a new era. Future costs are mainly determined by materials. Bottlenecks matter. Deflation is slower. Even higher-grade materials are needed to raise efficiency. This 14-page note explores the new age of materials, how much new energies deflation is left, and who benefits?
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Using a commodity more efficiently can cause its demand to rise not fall, as greater efficiency opens up unforeseen possibilities. This is Jevons' Paradox. Our 16-page report finds it is more prevalent than we expected. Efficiency gains underpin 25% of our roadmap to net zero. To be effective, commodity prices must also rise and remain high, otherwise rebound effects will raise demand.
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This 17-page note makes the largest changes to our shale forecasts in five years, on both quantitative and qualitative signs that productivity growth is slowing. Productivity peaks after 2025, precisely as energy markets hit steep undersupply. We still see +1Mbpd/year of liquids potential through 2030, but it is back loaded, and requires persistently higher oil prices?
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Lighting is 2% of global energy, 6% of electricity, 25% of buildings’ energy. LEDs are 2-20x more efficient than alternatives. Hence this 16-page report presents our outlook for LEDs in the energy transition. We think LED market share doubles to c100% in the 2030s, to save energy, especially in solar-heavy grids. But demand is also rising due to ‘rebound effects’ and use in digital devices.
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This 14-page report re-visits our wind industry outlook. Our long-term forecasts are reluctantly being revised downwards by 25%, especially for offshore wind, where levelized costs have reinflated by 30% to 13c/kWh. Material costs are widely blamed. But rising rates are the greater evil. Upscaling is also stalling. What options to right this ship?
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This 14-page report explores whether global industrial activity is set to become ever more concentrated in a few advantaged locations, especially the US Gulf Coast, China and the Middle East. Industries form ecosystems. Different species cluster together. Elsewhere, you can no more re-shore a few select industries than introduce dung beetles onto the moon. These mega-trends matter for valuations.
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HJT solar modules are accelerating, as they are efficient and easy to manufacture. But HJT could also be a kingmaker for Indium, used in transparent and conductive thin films (ITO). Our forecasts see primary Indium demand rising 4x by 2050. This 16-page note explores the costs and benefits of using ITO in HJTs, and who benefits as solar cells evolve?
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Polyurethanes are elastic polymers, used for insulation, electric vehicles, electronics and apparel. This $75bn pa market expands 3x by 2050. But could energy transition double historically challenging margins, by freeing up feedstock supplies? This 13-page note builds a full mass balance for the 20+ stage polyurethane value chain and screens 20 listed companies.
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There is an economic paradox where shifting towards lower cost supply sources can cause inflation in the total costs of supply. Renewable-heavy grids are subject to this paradox, as they have high fixed costs and falling utilization. As power prices rise, there are growing incentives for self-generation. Energy transition requires a balanced, pragmatic approach.
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Oil markets are transitioning, with electric vehicles displacing 20Mbpd of gasoline by 2050, while petrochemical demand rises by almost 10Mbpd. So it is often said oil refiners should 'become chemicals companies'. It depends. This 18-page report charts petrochemical pathways and sees opportunity in chemicals that can absorb surplus BTX.
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Some industries can absorb low-cost electricity when renewables are over-generating and avoid high-cost electricity when they are under-generating. The net result can lower electricity costs by 2-3c/kWh and uplift ROCEs by 5-15% in increasingly renewables-heavy grids. This 14-page note ranges over 10,000 demand shifting opportunities, to identify who can benefit most.
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This 16-page report breaks down global CO2 emissions, across six causal factors and 28 countries-regions. Global emissions rose at +0.7% pa in 2017-22, unchanged on 2012-17, even as global income growth slowed by -0.5% pa. Depressing. The biggest reason is underinvestment in gas. Reaching net zero requires vast acceleration in renewables, infrastructure, nuclear, gas and nature.
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Blue hydrogen value chains are gaining momentum. Especially in the US. So this 16-page note contrasts steam-methane reforming (SMR) versus autothermal reforming (ATR). Each has merits and challenges. ATR looks excellent for clean ammonia. While the IRA creates CCS upside for today’s SMR incumbents, across industrial gases, refining and chemicals.
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AI will be a game-changer for global energy efficiency, saving 10x more energy than it consumes directly, closing 'thermodynamic gaps' where 80-90% of all primary energy is wasted today. Leading corporations will harness AI to lower costs and accelerate decarbonization. This 19-page note explores opportunities.
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Swing Adsorption separates gases, based on their differential loading onto zeolite adsorbents at varying pressures. Today, tens of thousands of PSA plants purify hydrogen, biogas, polymers, nitrogen/oxygen and possibly in the future, can capture CO2? This 16-page note explores PSA technology for industrial gases.
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Electric vehicles are a world-changing technology, 2-6x more efficient than ICEs, but how quickly will they ramp up to re-shape global oil demand? This 14-page note finds surprising ‘stickiness’. Even as EV sales explode to 200M units by 2050 (2x all-time peak ICE sales), the global ICE fleet may only fall by 40%. Will LT oil demand surprise to the upside or downside?
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This 12-page note looks back over 5-years of energy technology research. Progress has often been slower than we expected. Maturing early-stage technology takes 20-30 years. Progress slows as work shifts from the lab to the real world. We wonder whether 2050 will look more like 2023 than many expect; or if decarbonization must rely more on today’s mature technologies?
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Cryogenic air separation is used to produce 400MTpa of oxygen, plus pure nitrogen and argon; for steel, metals, ammonia, wind-solar inputs, semiconductor, blue hydrogen and Allam cycle oxy-combustion. Hence this 16-page report is an overview of industrial gases. How does air separation work? What costs, energy use and CO2 intensity? Who benefits amidst the energy transition?
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Power grid circuit kilometers need to rise 3-5x in the energy transition. This trend directly tightens global aluminium markets by over c20%, and global copper markets by c15%. Slow recent progress may lead to bottlenecks, then a boom? This 12-page note quantifies the rising demand for circuit kilometers, grid infrastructure, underlying metals and who benefits?
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This data-file aggregates all of our patent assessments into a single reference file, so different companies' scores can be compared and contrasted. Our average score is 3.5 out of 5.0. Skew is to the downside. Intelligibility is the biggest challenge. Scores correlate with TRL and revenues.
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Cummins is a power technology company, listed in the US, specializing in diesel engines, underlying components, exhaust gas after-treatment, diesel power generation and pivoting towards hydrogen. We reviewed 80 patents from 2023-24. What outlook for Cummins technology and verticals in the energy transition?
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Is Babcock and Wilcox's BrightLoop technology a game-changer for producing low-carbon hydrogen from solid fuels, while also releasing a pure stream of CO2 for CCS? Conclusions and deep-dive details are covered in this data-file, allowing us to guess at BrightLoop's energy efficiency and a moat around Babcock's reactor designs?
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This data-file is our LONGi technology review, based on recent patent filings. The work helps us to de-risk increasingly efficient solar modules, a growing focus on perovskite-tandem cells, and low-cost solar modules, with simple manufacturing techniques that may ultimately displace bottlenecked silver from electrical contacts. Key conclusions in the data-file.
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Origen Carbon Solutions is developing a novel DAC technology, producing CaO sorbent via the oxy-fuelled calcining of limestone with no net CO2 emissions. It is similar to the NET Power cycle, but adapted for a limestone kiln. The concept is very interesting. Our base case costs are $200-300/ton of CO2. This data-file contains our Origen DAC technology review.
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This data-file reviews Verdox DAC technology, optimizing polyanthraquinones and polynaphthoquinones, then depositing them on porous carbon nano-tube scaffolds. These quinones are shown to selectively adsorb CO2 when a voltage is applied, then desorb them when a reverse voltage is applied, unlocking 70% lower energy penalties than incumbent DAC?
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Solvay is a chemicals company with growing exposure to battery materials, especially the PVDF binders that hold together active materials in the electrodes. But also increasingly in electrolyte solvents, salts and additives. Interestingly, our patent review finds optimizations of this overall system can improve the longevity and energy density of batteries, which may also lead to consolidation across the battery supply chain?
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Pressure exchangers transfer energy from a high-pressure fluid stream to a low-pressure fluid stream, and can save up to 60% input energy. Energy Recovery Inc is a leading provider of pressure exchangers, especially for the desalination industry, and increasingly for refrigeration, air conditioners, heat pump and industrial applications. Our technology review finds a moat.
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Our Plug Power technology review is drawn from the company's recent patent filings, which offer some of the most detailed disclosures we have ever seen into the manufacturing of PEM electrolysers and fuel cells, underlying catalyst materials, membranes and their manufacturing. One patent seems like a breakthrough. Other patents candidly presented challenges.
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MIRALON is an advanced material, being commercialized by Huntsman, purifying carbon nanotubes from the pyrolysis of methane and also yielding turquoise hydrogen. This data-file reviews MIRALON technology, patents, and a strong moat. Our model sees 15% IRRs if Huntsman reaches a medium-term cost target of $10/kg MIRALON and $1/kg H2.
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This data-file reviews Bloom Energy's solid oxide fuel cell technology. What surprised us most was a candid overview of degradation pathways of solid oxide fuel cells, a focus on improving the longevity of fuel cells, albeit this sometimes seems to be via heavy uses of Rare Earth metals, and increasing complexity. The patents do suggest a moat around Bloom Energy fuel cell technology.
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Newlight is converting (bio-)methane and air into polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB), a type of polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA), a biodegradable bioplastic which it markets as AirCarbon. The product is 'carbon negative', biodegradable, strong, 'never soggy', dishwasher safe. Our AirCarbon technology review found some good underlying innovations, but was unable to de-risk cost and capex aspirations.
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Montana Technologies is developing AirJoule, an HVAC technology that uses metal organic frameworks, to lower the energy costs of air conditioning by 50-75%. The company is going public via SPAC and targeting first revenues in 2024. Our AirJoule technology review finds strong rationale, technical details and challenges.
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Alterra Energy has steadily been refining its plastic recycling technology since 2017. The company recently signed license agreements with Neste and Freepoint. The technology is a continuous reactor, with seven discrete stages, using scavengers to remove contaminants, and patented hardware to minimize fouling and devolatilize chars.
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Advantage is a Montney gas producer, which recently sourced a $300M investment from Brookfield to scale up its Entropy23 amine blend for natural-gas CCS. Entropy has captured 90-93% of the CO2 at the first pilot plant at Glacier, Alberta, with 2.4 GJ/ton reboiler duty, 40% below MEA. This 7-page report confirms a moat around the technology and raises three challenges.
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Topsoe autothermal reforming technology aims to maximize the uptime and reliability of blue hydrogen production, despite ultra-high combustion temperatures from the partial oxidation reaction, while achieving high energy efficiency, 90-97% CO2 capture and
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Electra is developing an electrochemical refining process, to convert iron ore into high purity iron, and ultimately into steel, using only renewable electricity. It has raised c$100M, gained high-profile backers, and is working towards a test plant. This 9-page note reviews an exceptionally detailed patent, finds clear innovations, but also some remaining risks and cost question marks.
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Aker Carbon Capture is a public company, listed in Norway, with c120 permanent employees. It has developed novel solvents for post-combustion carbon capture, modular CCS plants (JustCatch, at 40-100kTpa, and BigCatch at >400kTpa). The company aims to secure contracts for 10MTpa of CCS by 2025. This technology review looks for a moat in the patents.
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Membrane Technology and Research Inc. (MTR) is a private company, specializing in membrane separations, for the energy industry, chemicals and increasingly, CCS. Its Gen 2-3 Polaris membranes have 50x CO2:N2 selectivity, 2,000-3,000 GPU permeabilities, and are at TRL 6-7. Is there a moat?
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Boston Metal aims to decarbonize steel, using molten oxide electrolysis, absorbing 4MWH/ton of steel. This data-file is a Boston Metal technology review, based on assessing 55 patents across 3 families. We were unable to de-risk the technology. A key challenge is conveying current into the cell, as it operates around 1,600C, which is above the melting point of most feasible conductor materials.
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Amprius is commercializing a lithium-ion battery with a near-100% silicon anode, yielding 80% higher energy density. It can achieve 80% charge within 6-minutes. The company is listed on NYSE. We have reviewed Amprius' silicon anode technology. The patent library is excellent, goes back to 2009 and has locked upon a specific design. This allows us to guess at costs, degradation and longevity.
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NEL is a green hydrogen technology company, headquartered in Oslo, listed on the Oslo Børs since 2014, and employing 575 people. It has manufactured 3,500 electrolyser units, going back to 1927, historically weighted to alkaline electrolysers, and increasingly focused on PEMs and hydrogen fuelling stations. This NEL technology review explores its patents.
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Verbio is a bio-energy company, founded in 2006, listed in Germany, producing bio-diesel, bioethanol, biogas, glycerin and fertilizers. The company has stated "we want to be in a position to convert anything that agriculture can deliver to energy". Our Verbio technology review is based on its patents. We find some fascinating innovations in cold mash ethanol, integrated with biogas production, and making biogas from lignocellulosic feedstock.
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Hillcrest Energy Technologies is developing an ultra-efficient SiC inverter, which has 30-70% lower switching losses, up to 15% lower system cost, weight, size, and thus interesting applications in electric vehicles. How does it work and can we de-risk the technology?
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Our NET Power technology review shows over ten years of progress, refining the design of efficient power generation cycles using CO2 as the working fluid. The patents show a moat around several aspects of the technology. And six challenges at varying stages of de-risking.
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Goldwind is one of the largest wind turbine manufacturers in the world, headquartered in Beijing, and shares are publicly listed. The wind industry is increasingly aiming to mimic the inertia and frequency responses of synchronous power generators. Goldwind has published some interesting case studies. Hence we have reviewed its patents to see if we can find an edge?
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Jetti Resources has developed a breakthrough technology to recover copper from low-grade sulfide ores, by leaching with sulphuric acid, thiocarbonyls, ferric iron (III) sulphates and oxidizing bacteria. The patents lock up the technology, with detailed experimental data. But what are the costs of copper production, what CO2 intensity and what technical challenges remain?
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Tigercat is a private company, founded in 1992, headquartered in Ontario, Canada, with c2,000 employees. The company produces specialized machinery for forestry, logging, materials processing and off-road equipment. Our patent review has found a moat around reliable, easy-to-maintain, mobile and efficient forestry equipment.
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This data-file is a review of Agilyx's plastic recycling technology, after assessing the company's patents on our usual framework. We conclude that Agilyx has developed a novel and data-driven process, to remove challenging contaminants from feedstocks. Although it may involve higher complexity, higher reagent opex, and some challenges cannot entirely be de-risked from the patents.
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This data-file is a technology review for Sentient Energy, assessing innovations in smart grids. Its technology can achieve energy savings via a combination of "Conservation Voltage Reduction" and "Volt-VAR optimization at the grid edge". This also helps to integrate more solar and EV charging into power grids. We explain the technology.
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Powin commercializes energy storage hardware and software. Its LFP battery system is 30% more compact than peers, at 200 MWH/acre, and modular, meaning it may be 50% faster to install. Our patent review finds a moat around specific process improvements, to help back up the short-term volatility of solar and wind.
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X-Energy is a next-generation nuclear company, progressing a demonstration project in Washington State, due to start up in 2027. The key innovation is using TRISO fuels, whose manufacturing is locked up with a concentrated patent library. Long-term costs are suggested at 6c/kWh.
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Prysmian scores well on our patent assessment framework. We conclude an array of incremental improvements and industry specializations confer a partial moat and helps to de-risk future installation work.
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Nostromo is commercializing a thermal energy storage system, for commercial buildings in hot climates, where AC can comprise 40-70% of total energy use. It scores highly on our patent framework and can be an interesting alternative to lithium batteries.
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PureCycle was founded in 2015, went public via SPAC in 2021 and aims to recycle waste polypropylene into virgin-like polypropylene saving 79% of the usual input energy and 35% of the input CO2. Despite recent controversies, our PureCycle technology review is able to de-risk several ambitions.
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Aurubis produces copper products from 1MTpa of recycled materials and 2.25MTpa of concetrates. Energy use and CO2 emissions are two-thirds lower than primary copper production. Our technology review finds a partial moat.
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TerraPower is one of the most active next-generation nuclear companies, with funding from Bill Gates, and 600 engineers working towards the first, 345MWe Natrium reactor before 2030. We could not entirely de-risk a "breakthrough" due to the breadth and novelty of its patents.
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Semi-solid electrodes are aimed at "dramatically reducing" costs of lithium ion batteries, with 70-100% higher energy density, plus better safety and reliability, for use in battery storage and electric vehicles. 24M has a moat and is licensing technology to Freyr and Volkswagen.
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Nexwafe is growing standalone silicon wafers on mono-crystalline seed wafers, with no need to slice ingots. It should improve solar efficiency, materials intensity and CO2 intensity. Our technology review found 60 patent filings and can partly de-risk growth ambitions.
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Terrestrial Energy is a next-generation nuclear fission company, aiming to build a small modular reactor: specifically a 2 x 195MWe Integral Molten Salt Reactor with ultimate costs below $3,000/kWe, yielding levelized costs of 5-7c/kWh. 80 patents lock up 8 core innovations in a high-quality library that helps de-risk the potential.
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Albemarle is a specialty chemicals company. Our patent screen de-risks incremental improvements in novel fire-proofing bromine compositions, further and better lithium pathways, and longer-lasting catalysts for cleaner fuels. Overall we think 70% of the patents are for technologies that will advance the energy transition in some way.
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General Fusion is developing a magnetized target fusion reactor, compressing plasma via high-pressure pistons. It hopes to commercialize 100-200MWe fusion reactors with 5-6.5c/kWh levelized costs of electricity in the late 2020s. Our patent de-risks several innovations. Although complexity is high and we note four residual risks for the technology.
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Tricoya is an engineered wood product like MDF, but it has been "acetylated", in order to confer >50-year longevity, even when exposed to the elements. Accsys Technologies is the parent company listed on AIM and Euronext Amsterdam. This data-file reviews its technology and patent library.
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CATL produces one-third of the world's lithium ion batteries. Its patents have warned of devastating lithium shortages since at least 2016. Hence in 2021, it announced it would produce commercial sodium-ion batteries by 2023. The technical challenges are captured in its patent library. We cannot fully de-risk its 2023 target.
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First Solar is a solar manufacturer with capacity to produce 8GW of solar panels per year, using CdTe thin film technology. It has production in the US and uses 60% less energy than photovoltaic silicon. Efficiency is interesting. It is usually lower for CdTe than c-Si, but 70% of First Solar's patents target improvements.
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Stora Enso is a pulp, paper and forestry products business, headquartered in Finland, with €10bn per year of revenues. It argues "everything made from fossil-based materials today can be made from a tree tomorrow". Our patent screen finds a strong focus on sustainable packaging solutions, especially Microfibrillated Cellulose (MFC).Â
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Svante is suggesting its technology can absorb 90% of CO2 in a 60-second cycle that costs 50% less than conventional CCS. It has attracted an amazing list of investors and partners. Agonizingly we could not de-risk the technology based on our usual patent review.
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Our patent review found CFS to have a high-quality patent library, of specific, intelligible, commercially-minded innovations to densify the magnets that would confine plasma in a tokamak for nuclear fusion. Specific details, and minor hesitations are in the data-file.Â
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ESS is emerging as a leader in medium-duration energy storage (4-12 hours), with an iron flow battery costing 2-5c/kWh (assuming >daily cycling) and lasting 20,000 cycles. The patent library is high quality. We note five challenges to consider. The largest is round-trip efficiency.
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NuScale is developing a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR), producing 77MWe of power. It is the first SMR design to win US regulatory approval and the first plant is being built in Romania for 2028. NuScale's patents scored well on our framework.
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CarbonCure injects CO2 into concrete during the mixing process, where it mineralizes. The resultant product can most likely save 4-6% of the CO2 intensity of finished concrete. Question marks are explored in the data-file.
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SolarEdge specializes in the power-electronics needed to use solar energy in practical power systems. Our patent review finds a good, but broad array of incremental improvements. They suggest a vast future market in solar-battery energy systems.
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Aerogels have thermal conductivities that are 50-80% below conventional insulators. Target markets include preventing thermal runaway in electric vehicle batteries and cryogenic industrial processes (e.g., LNG). This data-file notes some challenges, using our usual patent review framework.Â
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Solid Power is developing solid-state batteries, using sulphide electrolytes. Ambitious goals include >500 miles of EV range (50-100% more than today's lithium ion batteries), 2x higher life-spans and costs as low as $85/kWh. The company is going public via SPAC, valued at $1.2bn, and has an exceptional list of backers. Â
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Carbon Clean is a CCS company. It has already captured over 1MT, across 38 facilities. But in addition, it is developing a next-generation design, which could ultimately lower cost to $30-40/ton. Our review finds a very decent, albeit concentrated patent library, following our usual framework.
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Monolith claims it is the "only producer of cost effective commercially viable clean hydrogen today" as it has developed a proprietary technology for methane pyrolysis. But overall this was not one of our most successful patent screens. Some specific question marks are noted in the data-file. Â
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Shoals Technologies Group manufactures electrical balance of system solutions for solar energy projects, focused on promoting reliability, safety and ease of installation. Electrical installation costs can be lowered 40%. Our patent review finds a technology moat on 35% EBITDA margins.
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ChargePoint is the leading provider of Level 2 EV charging stations in the US and aims to help electrify mobility and freignt. Our review finds a library of simple, clear, specific and easy-to-understand patents. More debatable are the technology edge and future IP defensability.
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Form Energy is aiming to commercialize a metal-air battery, for long-duration energy storage, using only safe and Earth-abundant materials. The first 1MW/150MWH system could be deployed by 2023. Compared to other patent libraries, we have found it harder to de-risk Form's technology.
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Lilac Solutions aims to commercialize a lithium ion exchange technology, which can extract lithium from dilute brine solutions, rapidly, economically and scalably. Overall Lilac's patents look promising to us. They contain some excellent, precise and intelligible details on making ion exchange materials.
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Siemens Gamesa is a leader in offshore wind, pushing the boundaries towards a 14MW turbine with an incredible 222m rotor diameter. Our main debate from reviewing its patents is whether the engineering challenges of large turbines is consistent with deflation expectations.
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Stem Inc. went public via SPAC in April-2021, supporting grid-scale batteries with optimization software, which can lower energy bills by 10-30% in the energy transition. Its patents scored reasonably well on our usual framework. Managing short-term renewables volatility was a crucial focus.
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Array Technologies IPO-ed in October-2020. It manufactures solar tracking systems, supporting 25% of US solar modules installed to date. Its systems can uplift solar generation by 5-25%. we found clear, specific, intelligible patents, back-stopping six out of seven key strengths that have been cited by the company.
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Carbios has developed an enyzmatic process to recycle 90% of PET within 10-hours, which has been described in Nature. "This highly efficient, optimized enzyme outperforms all PET hydrolases reported so far". Economics and CO2 savings can be very exciting. But our work identifies four challenges, which were hard to re-risk.
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Climeworks is a Swiss company, founded in 2009, commercializing a direct air capture technology. The main innovation in its patents optimizes air flow, to avoid steep pressure drops, which can otherwise de-rail DAC economics. But we are still unable to de-risk sub-$200/ton CO2 costs based on reviewing the patents. Â
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Danimer Scientific is a producer of PHA, a biodegradable plastic feedstock. PHA still has commercial challenges in its processing, mechanical properties and 4-5x higher costs than conventional plastics. Yet our patent review finds Danimer has made some specific, intelligible innovations, earning a solid score of 3.5 on our technology framework.
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Nio is a listed, electric vehicle manufacturer, headquartered in Shanghai. It operates over 200 "battery swap" stations, and the 2-millionth battery swap was completed in March-2021, with swap times soon falling to 3-minutes. Our patent analysis suggests a genuine moat in swappable batteries, which could only have been built up by an auto-maker.Â
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LanzaTech aspires to "take waste carbon emissions and convert them" into sustainable fuels (and bio-plastics) with a >70% CO2 reduction. We have assessed its patents but concluded we cannot yet de-risk the CO2-to-fuels pathway in our energy transition models.
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Origin Materials went public via SPAC in February-2021, as it was acquired by Artius Acquisition Inc at a valuation of $1.8bn. Its ambition is to use wood residues to create carbon-negative plastics, cost-competitively with petroleum products. This data-file outlines our conclusions from reviewing patents.
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Enovix has developed a 3D silicon lithium-ion battery, 5-years ahead of the broader industry, with 2x higher energy density. The company went public via SPAC in February-2021, with an implied post-deal valuation of $1.12bn. This data-file assesses its technology breakthroughs.
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StoreDot is developing "extreme fast-charging" batteries for electric vehicles, using a proprietary range of nanomaterial additives. It claims prototype cells can charge 5-6x faster than conventional lithium ion. This data-file assesses StoreDot patents from 2019-20, looking to de-mystify its breakthroughs.
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This data-file reviews 25 of QuantumScape's 2019-20 patents, in order to substantiate its claims of a solid-state battery than can achieve c50-100% higher energy density than conventional lithium ion batteries, 3x faster charging, while also surviving hundreds of charge-discharge cycles without degradation.
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This data-file tabulates the greatest challenges and focus areas for harnessing deep geothermal energy, based on reviewing 30 recent patents from 20 companies in the space. We conclude that recent advances from the unconventional oil and gas industry are going to be a crucial enabler.
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