‘What the Thunder Said’ is the final section of T. S. Eliot’s 1922 masterpiece, the Waste Land. The poem describes a bleak and unproductive world. Nothing will grow. We think it is important to avoid the world becoming a Waste Land. Environmentally. Industrially For investors. So we humbly hope that Thunder Said Energy’s research into the energy transition can help.
An Environmental Waste Land?
“What branches grow out of this stony rubbish? Son of man, you cannot say, or guess, for you know only a heap of broken images, where the sun beats, and the dead tree gives no shelter, the cricket no relief, and the dry stone no sound of water. Come in under the shadow of this red rock, and I will show you something different from either your shadow at morning striding behind you or your shadow at evening rising to meet you. I will show you fear in a handful of dust”.
The primary motivation for the energy transition is to avoid Planet Earth becoming a Waste Land due to the destruction of the natural world, rising global temperatures, and a planet that ultimately becomes unhospitable.
Global temperatures have risen by over 1.2C since pre-industrial times (data below), which is primarily due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, rising methane concentrations and other greenhouse gases, and there are pathways looming that will see 3-8C of global warming by the end of the century.
The reasons for rising atmospheric CO2 span across a constellation of over 40 industries, which each explain more than 0.5% of the world’s CO2. These industries have another name — “the entire global economy”. It is tempting to scapegoat one or two industries. But it is unproductive. Ultimately, a credible roadmap to net zero must address every single bar on the chart below. This requires finding constructive solutions.
In our view, the saddest source of CO2 emissions is from the destruction of nature. Each year 10M hectares of primary forest is destroyed, which releases more CO2 than all of the world’s passenger cars. One third of the world’s primary forests have been destroyed in total, releasing an average of 200 tons of CO2-equivalents from 5bn acres of the Earth’s surface. This is 1 trillion tons of CO2-equivalents, and possibly as much as one-third of all anthropogenic emissions to-date. It has negative consequences for 40M species on planet Earth. Hence a large part of our roadmap to net zero specifically focused on restoring nature, forests and high-quality CO2 removals.
“Phlebas the Phoenician, a fortnight dead, forgot the cry of gulls, and the deep sea swell, and the profit and loss. A current under sea picked his bones in whispers”.
Devastating energy shortages have their own problems, which are also detrimental to human civilization. Following $600bn of cumulative under-investment, global energy markets are likely to be 2-10% under-supplied through 2030. As a result, energy prices must rise to the level that “destroys demand”. In turn, higher energy prices are likely to absorb an additional 10% of global GDP, which remarkably, is a 3x higher cost than the energy transition itself.
Primary energy has absorbed 4% of global GDP on average, going back to 1900. It spikes to 8% in the first oil shock, 12% in the second oil shock, and could surpass 14% in the late 2020s without sufficient energy investment.
Clearly, categorically, restoring the world’s energy surplus should be an important goal of the ESG movement, as important decarbonization itself. This is not instead of achieving an energy transition. It is so that we can achieve an energy transition. The note below outlines this point, clearly, concisely.
“I sat upon the shore Fishing, with the arid plain behind me, Shall I at least set my lands in order? Hieronymo’s mad againe … These fragments I have shored against my ruins”.
The Waste Land’s narrator seems to descend further into madness, as the poem continues. We can sympathize. In our research into the energy transition, we have reviewed hundreds of technologies, modelled the value chains across over one hundred different industrial processes that all need to be decarbonized, and attempted to educate ourselves on the overwhelming complexities of power grids, metals and materials, energy efficiency technologies, modelled dozens of supply-demand balances, and constructed over 1,000 different data-files.
“The black clouds gathered far distant over Himavant. The jungle crouched in silence. Waiting for rain… Then spoke the Thunder…. Datta, Dayadhvam, Damyata, Shantih, Shantih, Shantih”.
‘What the Thunder Said’ is the title of the Waste Land’s final section. It hints at a resolution, bringing rain to the dry Waste Lands below. Large clouds gather over the Himalayas and the thunder begins to speak a few words. Although they happen to be in Sanskrit, and remain painfully cryptic even once translated into English (thanks Eliot).
As a resolution across all of our research, our roadmap to net zero aims to integrate all of our research into a fully modeled pathway, which can meet the energy needs of the world, while also decarbonizing. We hope it is clear, non-cryptic and it is also backed up with dozens of models that can be be evaluated in more detail.
“Unreal City, Under the brown fog of a winter dawn, A crowd flowed London Bridge, so many, I had not thought the markets had undone so many. Sighs, short and infreuqent were exhaled And each man fixed his eyes before his feet. Flowed up the hill and down King William Street, to where Saint Mary Woolnoth kept the hours; With a dead sound on the final stroke of nine”.
Achieving an energy transition is not going to happen via divestment. Our roadmap to net zero requires primary spending in energy to rise from below $1trn pa today, to $4-5trn per annum. We hope our thematic research into the energy transition helps investors to find opportunities with exciting returns, where the technology “works”, and there are exciting opportunities to support. We have assessed over 1,000 companies to-date in our energy transition research, which is all available via the TSE research portal.
Over the past decade, costs have deflated by 85% for lithium ion batteries, 75% for solar and 25% for onshore wind. Now new energies costs are entering a new era. Future costs are mainly determined by materials. Bottlenecks matter. Deflation is slower. Even higher-grade materials are needed to raise efficiency. This 14-page note explores the new age of materials, how much new energies deflation is left, and who benefits?
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Using a commodity more efficiently can cause its demand to rise not fall, as greater efficiency opens up unforeseen possibilities. This is Jevons' Paradox. Our 16-page report finds it is more prevalent than we expected. Efficiency gains underpin 25% of our roadmap to net zero. To be effective, commodity prices must also rise and remain high, otherwise rebound effects will raise demand.
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This 17-page note makes the largest changes to our shale forecasts in five years, on both quantitative and qualitative signs that productivity growth is slowing. Productivity peaks after 2025, precisely as energy markets hit steep undersupply. We still see +1Mbpd/year of liquids potential through 2030, but it is back loaded, and requires persistently higher oil prices?
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Lighting is 2% of global energy, 6% of electricity, 25% of buildings’ energy. LEDs are 2-20x more efficient than alternatives. Hence this 16-page report presents our outlook for LEDs in the energy transition. We think LED market share doubles to c100% in the 2030s, to save energy, especially in solar-heavy grids. But demand is also rising due to ‘rebound effects’ and use in digital devices.
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This 14-page report re-visits our wind industry outlook. Our long-term forecasts are reluctantly being revised downwards by 25%, especially for offshore wind, where levelized costs have reinflated by 30% to 13c/kWh. Material costs are widely blamed. But rising rates are the greater evil. Upscaling is also stalling. What options to right this ship?
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This 14-page report explores whether global industrial activity is set to become ever more concentrated in a few advantaged locations, especially the US Gulf Coast, China and the Middle East. Industries form ecosystems. Different species cluster together. Elsewhere, you can no more re-shore a few select industries than introduce dung beetles onto the moon. These mega-trends matter for valuations.
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HJT solar modules are accelerating, as they are efficient and easy to manufacture. But HJT could also be a kingmaker for Indium, used in transparent and conductive thin films (ITO). Our forecasts see primary Indium demand rising 4x by 2050. This 16-page note explores the costs and benefits of using ITO in HJTs, and who benefits as solar cells evolve?
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Polyurethanes are elastic polymers, used for insulation, electric vehicles, electronics and apparel. This $75bn pa market expands 3x by 2050. But could energy transition double historically challenging margins, by freeing up feedstock supplies? This 13-page note builds a full mass balance for the 20+ stage polyurethane value chain and screens 20 listed companies.
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There is an economic paradox where shifting towards lower cost supply sources can cause inflation in the total costs of supply. Renewable-heavy grids are subject to this paradox, as they have high fixed costs and falling utilization. As power prices rise, there are growing incentives for self-generation. Energy transition requires a balanced, pragmatic approach.
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Oil markets are transitioning, with electric vehicles displacing 20Mbpd of gasoline by 2050, while petrochemical demand rises by almost 10Mbpd. So it is often said oil refiners should 'become chemicals companies'. It depends. This 18-page report charts petrochemical pathways and sees opportunity in chemicals that can absorb surplus BTX.
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Some industries can absorb low-cost electricity when renewables are over-generating and avoid high-cost electricity when they are under-generating. The net result can lower electricity costs by 2-3c/kWh and uplift ROCEs by 5-15% in increasingly renewables-heavy grids. This 14-page note ranges over 10,000 demand shifting opportunities, to identify who can benefit most.
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This 16-page report breaks down global CO2 emissions, across six causal factors and 28 countries-regions. Global emissions rose at +0.7% pa in 2017-22, unchanged on 2012-17, even as global income growth slowed by -0.5% pa. Depressing. The biggest reason is underinvestment in gas. Reaching net zero requires vast acceleration in renewables, infrastructure, nuclear, gas and nature.
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Blue hydrogen value chains are gaining momentum. Especially in the US. So this 16-page note contrasts steam-methane reforming (SMR) versus autothermal reforming (ATR). Each has merits and challenges. ATR looks excellent for clean ammonia. While the IRA creates CCS upside for today’s SMR incumbents, across industrial gases, refining and chemicals.
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AI will be a game-changer for global energy efficiency, saving 10x more energy than it consumes directly, closing 'thermodynamic gaps' where 80-90% of all primary energy is wasted today. Leading corporations will harness AI to lower costs and accelerate decarbonization. This 19-page note explores opportunities.
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Swing Adsorption separates gases, based on their differential loading onto zeolite adsorbents at varying pressures. Today, tens of thousands of PSA plants purify hydrogen, biogas, polymers, nitrogen/oxygen and possibly in the future, can capture CO2? This 16-page note explores PSA technology for industrial gases.
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Electric vehicles are a world-changing technology, 2-6x more efficient than ICEs, but how quickly will they ramp up to re-shape global oil demand? This 14-page note finds surprising ‘stickiness’. Even as EV sales explode to 200M units by 2050 (2x all-time peak ICE sales), the global ICE fleet may only fall by 40%. Will LT oil demand surprise to the upside or downside?
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This 12-page note looks back over 5-years of energy technology research. Progress has often been slower than we expected. Maturing early-stage technology takes 20-30 years. Progress slows as work shifts from the lab to the real world. We wonder whether 2050 will look more like 2023 than many expect; or if decarbonization must rely more on today’s mature technologies?
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Cryogenic air separation is used to produce 400MTpa of oxygen, plus pure nitrogen and argon; for steel, metals, ammonia, wind-solar inputs, semi-conductors, blue hydrogen and Allam cycle oxy-combustion. Hence this 16-page report is an overview of industrial gases. How does air separation work? What costs, energy use and CO2 intensity? Who benefits amidst the energy transition?
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Power grid circuit kilometers need to rise 3-5x in the energy transition. This trend directly tightens global aluminium markets by over c20%, and global copper markets by c15%. Slow recent progress may lead to bottlenecks, then a boom? This 12-page note quantifies the rising demand for circuit kilometers, grid infrastructure, underlying metals and who benefits?
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Electric currents create magnetic fields. Moving magnets induce electric currents. These principles underpin 95% of global electricity. 50% of wind turbines and 95% of electric vehicles use permanent magnets with Rare Earth metals. This 15-page overview of magnets covers key concepts and controversies for energy transition.
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A thermal power plant converts 35-45% of the chemical energy in coal, biomass or pellets into electrical energy. So what happens to the other 55-65%? Accessing this waste heat can mean the difference between 20% and 60% energy penalties for post-combustion CCS. This 10-page note explores how much heat can be recaptured.
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The DRI+EAF steel pathway already underpins 6% of global steel output, with 50% lower CO2 than blast furnaces. But could IRA incentives encourage another boom here? Blue hydrogen can reduce CO2 intensity to 75% below blast furnaces, and unlock 20% IRRs at $550-600/ton steel? This 13-page report explores who benefits.
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Super-alloys have exceptionally high strength and temperature resistance. They enable 6GTpa of decarbonization, across efficient gas turbines, jet engines (whether fueled by oil, hydrogen or e-fuels), vehicle parts, CCS, and geopolitical resiliency. Hence this 15-page report explores nickel-niobium super-alloys' role in energy transition.
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Powering the internet consumed 800 TWH of electricity in 2022, as 5bn users generated 4.7 Zettabytes of traffic. Our guess is that the internet’s energy demands double by 2030, including due to AI (e.g., ChatGPT), adding 1% upside to global energy and 2.5% to global electricity demand. This 14-page note aims to break down the numbers and their implications.
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Blue ammonia can economically decarbonize the fertilizer industry, using low-cost natural gas; with options to decarbonize combustion fuels in the future. This 12-page report covers where we see the best opportunities, as reforms to the 45Q have already kick-started a 20MTpa boom of new US projects.
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Is the global energy system on the precipice of persistent shortages, and record prices, in the mid-late 2020s? We worry that cumulative under-investment in the global energy system has now surpassed $1trn since 2015, relative to our energy transition roadmap. Our top ten slides into global energy ‘macro’ are set out in this presentation.
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Next-generation membranes could separate out 95% of the CO2 in a flue gas, into a 95% pure permeate, for a cost of $20/ton and an energy penalty below 10%, which greatly exceeds the best amines. This 15-page note lays out ten key questions, to help decision makers de-risk next-generation CCS membranes. The technology is early-stage. Companies are also noted.
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EROEI is the best metric for comparing end-to-end energy efficiencies. Wind and solar currently have EROEIs that are lower and ‘slower’ than today’s global energy mix; stoking upside to energy demand and capex. But future wind and solar EROEIs could improve 2-6x. This 13-page report explores whether this will be the make-or-break factor determining the ultimate share of renewables?
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Post-combustion CCS has more practical challenges than we had previously assumed, which are explored in this 13-page report. Today’s established amines require extensive pre- and post-treatment of gases; to prevent degradation, plant corrosion and toxic emissions. This might double real-world CCS costs. But it also creates more opportunity for novel CCS processes, which are rapidly emerging.
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CO2 removal credits could add 6-60% to the GDP of 47 emerging countries as they reforest 1.5bn acres and create a 7.5GTpa CO2 sink, while the resultant cash flows could double these countries’ investment rates. Reinvesting in wind, solar, electrification avoids higher carbon fuels and deforestation for firewood. Reinvesting in timber value chains maximizes CO2 permanence and value.
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Projections of future global energy demand depend on energy efficiency gains which are hoped to step up from 1% per year since 1970, to above 3% per year to 2050 by some forecasters. But efficiency is vague. This 17-page note worries that global energy demand will surprise to the upside as energy efficiency gains disappoint optimistic forecasts.
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Controversies over oil industry flaring are re-accelerating, especially due to the methane slip from flares, now feared as high as 8% globally. The skew entails that more CO2e could be emitted in producing low quality barrels (Scope 1) than in consuming high quality barrels (Scope 3). Environmental impacts are preventable. This 10-page note explores how, across producers and energy services.
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This 14-page note explores an alternative framework for energy transition: what if the fantasy of the perfect consistently de-rails good pragmatic progress; then the world back-slides to high-carbon energy amidst crises? We need to explore this scenario, as it yields very different outcomes, winners and losers compared with our roadmap to net zero.
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CO2 is a strange gas. This matters as energy transition will require over 120 GW of compressors for 6GTpa of CCUS. This 13-page note explains CO2’s strange properties, which helps to fine-tune appropriate risking factors for vanilla CCS, blue hydrogen, CO2-EOR, CO2 shipping, super-critical CO2 power cycles. There is also a wide moat around leading turbomachinery companies.
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The universe of energy transition stocks seems small at first. 50 clean tech companies have $1trn in combined value, less than 1% of all global equities. But decarbonizing the world is insatiable. Consuming ever more sectors. We are now following over $15trn of market cap across new energies, (clean) conventional energy, utilities, capital goods, mining, materials, energy services, semiconductors.
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Ramping new energies is creating bottlenecks in materials. But how much can material use be thrifted away? This 13-page note is a case study of silver use in solar. Silver intensity halved in the past decade, and could halve again? Conclusions matter for solar companies, silver markets, other bottlenecks.
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Silicon carbide power electronics will jolt the energy transition forwards, displacing silicon, and improving the efficiency of most new energies by 1-10 pp. Hence we wonder if this disruptor will surprise to the upside, quintupling by 2027. This 12-page note reviews the technology, advantages, challenges, and who benefits?
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Thermodynamic engines convert heat into work. This 13-page note explains different thermodynamic cycles, covering what we think decision makers in the energy transition should know. The theory underpins the appeal of electrification, ultra-efficient gas turbines, CHPs, advanced nuclear and new super-critical CO2 power cycles.
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This note explores an option to decarbonize global LNG: (i) capture the CO2 from combusting natural gas (ii) liquefy it, including heat exchange with the LNG regas stream, then (iii) send the liquid CO2 back for disposal in the return journey of the LNG tanker. There are some logistical headaches, but no technical show-stoppers. Abatement cost is c$100/ton.
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This 14-page note lays out our top ten predictions for global energy in 2023. Brace yourself for volatility, a recession due to energy shortages, and deepening bottlenecks on accelerating new energies? However, the biggest change for 2023 is that an energy super-cycle is now gradually coming into view.
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This 17-page report revisits our roadmap for the world to reach 'net zero' by 2050, after integrating over 1,000 pieces of research from 2019 through 2022. Our updated roadmap includes large upgrades for renewables and energy efficiency; less reliance on new energies breakthroughs; but most of all, simple, pragmatic progress is needed as bottlenecks and shortages loom.
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Is the nascent market for nature-based carbon offsets working? We appraised five projects in 2022, and contributed $7,700 to capture 440 tons of CO2, which is 20x our own CO2 footprint. This 11-page note presents our top five conclusions. Today’s market lacks depth and efficiency. High-quality credits are most bottlenecked. Prices rise further in 2023. A new wave of projects is emerging?
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Electrification is the most overlooked, most misunderstood opportunity in the energy transition. Hence this 10-page note aims to explain the upside, simply and clearly. Electricity rises from 40% of total useful energy today to 60% by 2050. Within the next decade, this adds $2trn to the enterprise value of capital goods companies in power grids and power electronics.
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Forecasts for future solar capacity growth have an unsatisfyingly uncertain range, varying by 3x. Hence this 15-page note discusses the future of solar. Solar capacity additions likely accelerate 3.5x by 2030 and 5x by 2040. But this creates bottlenecks, including for seven materials; and requires >$1trn pa of additional power grid capex plus $1trn pa of power electronics capex.
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Fluorinated polymers are a stealth bottleneck for the energy transition: used in solar back-sheets, battery binders/separators, wind blades, and across the hydrogen chain. They are easily overlooked. This 400kTpa market grows 6x by 2050. Markets are already tight. And the ‘CO2 curve’ is very steep. Our 15-page report explores the market, the upside and who benefits.
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Should restoring the world’s energy surplus be seen as the most important ESG goal of the 2020s? This 12-page note outlines our top ten considerations, as our energy balances have deteriorated even further in the last year. Under-supply could persist through 2030. Shortages have cruel consequences. And unexpected ripple effects. Energy surplus also helps energy transition.
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400 GW of nuclear reactors produce 2,800TWH of zero carbon electricity globally each year. But the numbers have been stagnant for two decades. This is now changing. This 14-page note explains why. We expect a >3% CAGR through 2030, and hope for a 2.5x ramp through 2050. A ‘nuclear renaissance’ helps the energy transition.
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In a ‘weird recession’, GDP growth turns negative, yet commodity prices continue surprising to the upside. This 10-page note explores three reasons that 2022-24 may bring a ‘weird recession’. There is historical precedent, prices must remain high to attract new investment, and buyers may stockpile bottlenecked materials. How will this affect different industries?
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Gold and silver are stores of value, especially in a world of persistently high inflation and low rates. Silver is also likely to be the main bottleneck for solar in the 2020s. Hence our 18-page note models the end-to-end mining and refining of these metals. We find very steep energy/CO2 curves, and fear supply shortages. What upside for well-run gold-silver incumbents?
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In the under-supplied world of 2022-30, raising interest rates might not mute inflation, but could actually deepen it. By deterring the investments needed to cure inflation itself. Each 1% increase in capital costs re-inflates new energies 10-20%, infrastructure 2-20%, materials 2-6%, and conventional energy 2-5%. What implications?
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Solvay is a chemicals company with growing exposure to battery materials, especially the PVDF binders that hold together active materials in the electrodes. But also increasingly in electrolyte solvents, salts and additives. Interestingly, our patent review finds optimizations of this overall system can improve the longevity and energy density of batteries, which may also lead to consolidation across the battery supply chain?
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Pressure exchangers transfer energy from a high-pressure fluid stream to a low-pressure fluid stream, and can save up to 60% input energy. Energy Recovery Inc is a leading provider of pressure exchangers, especially for the desalination industry, and increasingly for refrigeration, air conditioners, heat pump and industrial applications. Our technology review finds a moat.
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This data-file aggregates all of our patent assessments into a single reference file, so different companies' scores can be compared and contrasted. Our average score is 2.5 out of 5.0. Skew is to the downside. Intelligibility is the biggest challenge. Scores correlate with TRL and revenues.
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Our Plug Power technology review is drawn from the company's recent patent filings, which offer some of the most detailed disclosures we have ever seen into the manufacturing of PEM electrolysers and fuel cells, underlying catalyst materials, membranes and their manufacturing. One patent seems like a breakthrough. Other patents candidly presented challenges.
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MIRALON is an advanced material, being commercialized by Huntsman, purifying carbon nanotubes from the pyrolysis of methane and also yielding turquoise hydrogen. This data-file reviews MIRALON technology, patents, and a strong moat. Our model sees 15% IRRs if Huntsman reaches a medium-term cost target of $10/kg MIRALON and $1/kg H2.
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This data-file reviews Bloom Energy's solid oxide fuel cell technology. What surprised us most was a candid overview of degradation pathways of solid oxide fuel cells, a focus on improving the longevity of fuel cells, albeit this sometimes seems to be via heavy uses of Rare Earth metals, and increasing complexity. The patents do suggest a moat around Bloom Energy fuel cell technology.
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Newlight is converting (bio-)methane and air into polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB), a type of polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA), a biodegradable bioplastic which it markets as AirCarbon. The product is 'carbon negative', biodegradable, strong, 'never soggy', dishwasher safe. Our AirCarbon technology review found some good underlying innovations, but was unable to de-risk cost and capex aspirations.
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Montana Technologies is developing AirJoule, an HVAC technology that uses metal organic frameworks, to lower the energy costs of air conditioning by 50-75%. The company is going public via SPAC and targeting first revenues in 2024. Our AirJoule technology review finds strong rationale, technical details and challenges.
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Alterra Energy has steadily been refining its plastic recycling technology since 2017. The company recently signed license agreements with Neste and Freepoint. The technology is a continuous reactor, with seven discrete stages, using scavengers to remove contaminants, and patented hardware to minimize fouling and devolatilize chars.
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Advantage is a Montney gas producer, which recently sourced a $300M investment from Brookfield to scale up its Entropy23 amine blend for natural-gas CCS. Entropy has captured 90-93% of the CO2 at the first pilot plant at Glacier, Alberta, with 2.4 GJ/ton reboiler duty, 40% below MEA. This 7-page report confirms a moat around the technology and raises three challenges.
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Topsoe autothermal reforming technology aims to maximize the uptime and reliability of blue hydrogen production, despite ultra-high combustion temperatures from the partial oxidation reaction, while achieving high energy efficiency, 90-97% CO2 capture and
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Electra is developing an electrochemical refining process, to convert iron ore into high purity iron, and ultimately into steel, using only renewable electricity. It has raised c$100M, gained high-profile backers, and is working towards a test plant. This 9-page note reviews an exceptionally detailed patent, finds clear innovations, but also some remaining risks and cost question marks.
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Aker Carbon Capture is a public company, listed in Norway, with c120 permanent employees. It has developed novel solvents for post-combustion carbon capture, modular CCS plants (JustCatch, at 40-100kTpa, and BigCatch at >400kTpa). The company aims to secure contracts for 10MTpa of CCS by 2025. This technology review looks for a moat in the patents.
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Membrane Technology and Research Inc. (MTR) is a private company, specializing in membrane separations, for the energy industry, chemicals and increasingly, CCS. Its Gen 2-3 Polaris membranes have 50x CO2:N2 selectivity, 2,000-3,000 GPU permeabilities, and are at TRL 6-7. Is there a moat?
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Boston Metal aims to decarbonize steel, using molten oxide electrolysis, absorbing 4MWH/ton of steel. This data-file is a Boston Metal technology review, based on assessing 55 patents across 3 families. We were unable to de-risk the technology. A key challenge is conveying current into the cell, as it operates around 1,600C, which is above the melting point of most feasible conductor materials.
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Amprius is commercializing a lithium-ion battery with a near-100% silicon anode, yielding 80% higher energy density. It can achieve 80% charge within 6-minutes. The company is listed on NYSE. We have reviewed Amprius' silicon anode technology. The patent library is excellent, goes back to 2009 and has locked upon a specific design. This allows us to guess at costs, degradation and longevity.
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NEL is a green hydrogen technology company, headquartered in Oslo, listed on the Oslo Børs since 2014, and employing 575 people. It has manufactured 3,500 electrolyser units, going back to 1927, historically weighted to alkaline electrolysers, and increasingly focused on PEMs and hydrogen fuelling stations. This NEL technology review explores its patents.
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Verbio is a bio-energy company, founded in 2006, listed in Germany, producing bio-diesel, bioethanol, biogas, glycerin and fertilizers. The company has stated "we want to be in a position to convert anything that agriculture can deliver to energy". Our Verbio technology review is based on its patents. We find some fascinating innovations in cold mash ethanol, integrated with biogas production, and making biogas from lignocellulosic feedstock.
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Hillcrest Energy Technologies is developing an ultra-efficient SiC inverter, which has 30-70% lower switching losses, up to 15% lower system cost, weight, size, and thus interesting applications in electric vehicles. How does it work and can we de-risk the technology?
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Our NET Power technology review shows over ten years of progress, refining the design of efficient power generation cycles using CO2 as the working fluid. The patents show a moat around several aspects of the technology. And six challenges at varying stages of de-risking.
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Goldwind is one of the largest wind turbine manufacturers in the world, headquartered in Beijing, and shares are publicly listed. The wind industry is increasingly aiming to mimic the inertia and frequency responses of synchronous power generators. Goldwind has published some interesting case studies. Hence we have reviewed its patents to see if we can find an edge?
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Jetti Resources has developed a breakthrough technology to recover copper from low-grade sulfide ores, by leaching with sulphuric acid, thiocarbonyls, ferric iron (III) sulphates and oxidizing bacteria. The patents lock up the technology, with detailed experimental data. But what are the costs of copper production, what CO2 intensity and what technical challenges remain?
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Tigercat is a private company, founded in 1992, headquartered in Ontario, Canada, with c2,000 employees. The company produces specialized machinery for forestry, logging, materials processing and off-road equipment. Our patent review has found a moat around reliable, easy-to-maintain, mobile and efficient forestry equipment.
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This data-file is a review of Agilyx's plastic recycling technology, after assessing the company's patents on our usual framework. We conclude that Agilyx has developed a novel and data-driven process, to remove challenging contaminants from feedstocks. Although it may involve higher complexity, higher reagent opex, and some challenges cannot entirely be de-risked from the patents.
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This data-file is a technology review for Sentient Energy, assessing innovations in smart grids. Its technology can achieve energy savings via a combination of "Conservation Voltage Reduction" and "Volt-VAR optimization at the grid edge". This also helps to integrate more solar and EV charging into power grids. We explain the technology.
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Powin commercializes energy storage hardware and software. Its LFP battery system is 30% more compact than peers, at 200 MWH/acre, and modular, meaning it may be 50% faster to install. Our patent review finds a moat around specific process improvements, to help back up the short-term volatility of solar and wind.
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X-Energy is a next-generation nuclear company, progressing a demonstration project in Washington State, due to start up in 2027. The key innovation is using TRISO fuels, whose manufacturing is locked up with a concentrated patent library. Long-term costs are suggested at 6c/kWh.
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Prysmian scores well on our patent assessment framework. We conclude an array of incremental improvements and industry specializations confer a partial moat and helps to de-risk future installation work.
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Nostromo is commercializing a thermal energy storage system, for commercial buildings in hot climates, where AC can comprise 40-70% of total energy use. It scores highly on our patent framework and can be an interesting alternative to lithium batteries.
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PureCycle was founded in 2015, went public via SPAC in 2021 and aims to recycle waste polypropylene into virgin-like polypropylene saving 79% of the usual input energy and 35% of the input CO2. Despite recent controversies, our PureCycle technology review is able to de-risk several ambitions.
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Aurubis produces copper products from 1MTpa of recycled materials and 2.25MTpa of concetrates. Energy use and CO2 emissions are two-thirds lower than primary copper production. Our technology review finds a partial moat.
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TerraPower is one of the most active next-generation nuclear companies, with funding from Bill Gates, and 600 engineers working towards the first, 345MWe Natrium reactor before 2030. We could not entirely de-risk a "breakthrough" due to the breadth and novelty of its patents.
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Semi-solid electrodes are aimed at "dramatically reducing" costs of lithium ion batteries, with 70-100% higher energy density, plus better safety and reliability, for use in battery storage and electric vehicles. 24M has a moat and is licensing technology to Freyr and Volkswagen.
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Nexwafe is growing standalone silicon wafers on mono-crystalline seed wafers, with no need to slice ingots. It should improve solar efficiency, materials intensity and CO2 intensity. Our technology review found 60 patent filings and can partly de-risk growth ambitions.
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Terrestrial Energy is a next-generation nuclear fission company, aiming to build a small modular reactor: specifically a 2 x 195MWe Integral Molten Salt Reactor with ultimate costs below $3,000/kWe, yielding levelized costs of 5-7c/kWh. 80 patents lock up 8 core innovations in a high-quality library that helps de-risk the potential.
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Albemarle is a specialty chemicals company. Our patent screen de-risks incremental improvements in novel fire-proofing bromine compositions, further and better lithium pathways, and longer-lasting catalysts for cleaner fuels. Overall we think 70% of the patents are for technologies that will advance the energy transition in some way.
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General Fusion is developing a magnetized target fusion reactor, compressing plasma via high-pressure pistons. It hopes to commercialize 100-200MWe fusion reactors with 5-6.5c/kWh levelized costs of electricity in the late 2020s. Our patent de-risks several innovations. Although complexity is high and we note four residual risks for the technology.
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Tricoya is an engineered wood product like MDF, but it has been "acetylated", in order to confer >50-year longevity, even when exposed to the elements. Accsys Technologies is the parent company listed on AIM and Euronext Amsterdam. This data-file reviews its technology and patent library.
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CATL produces one-third of the world's lithium ion batteries. Its patents have warned of devastating lithium shortages since at least 2016. Hence in 2021, it announced it would produce commercial sodium-ion batteries by 2023. The technical challenges are captured in its patent library. We cannot fully de-risk its 2023 target.
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First Solar is a solar manufacturer with capacity to produce 8GW of solar panels per year, using CdTe thin film technology. It has production in the US and uses 60% less energy than photovoltaic silicon. Efficiency is interesting. It is usually lower for CdTe than c-Si, but 70% of First Solar's patents target improvements.
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Stora Enso is a pulp, paper and forestry products business, headquartered in Finland, with €10bn per year of revenues. It argues "everything made from fossil-based materials today can be made from a tree tomorrow". Our patent screen finds a strong focus on sustainable packaging solutions, especially Microfibrillated Cellulose (MFC).
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Svante is suggesting its technology can absorb 90% of CO2 in a 60-second cycle that costs 50% less than conventional CCS. It has attracted an amazing list of investors and partners. Agonizingly we could not de-risk the technology based on our usual patent review.
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Our patent review found CFS to have a high-quality patent library, of specific, intelligible, commercially-minded innovations to densify the magnets that would confine plasma in a tokamak for nuclear fusion. Specific details, and minor hesitations are in the data-file.
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ESS is emerging as a leader in medium-duration energy storage (4-12 hours), with an iron flow battery costing 2-5c/kWh (assuming >daily cycling) and lasting 20,000 cycles. The patent library is high quality. We note five challenges to consider. The largest is round-trip efficiency.
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NuScale is developing a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR), producing 77MWe of power. It is the first SMR design to win US regulatory approval and the first plant is being built in Romania for 2028. NuScale's patents scored well on our framework.
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CarbonCure injects CO2 into concrete during the mixing process, where it mineralizes. The resultant product can most likely save 4-6% of the CO2 intensity of finished concrete. Question marks are explored in the data-file.
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SolarEdge specializes in the power-electronics needed to use solar energy in practical power systems. Our patent review finds a good, but broad array of incremental improvements. They suggest a vast future market in solar-battery energy systems.
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Aerogels have thermal conductivities that are 50-80% below conventional insulators. Target markets include preventing thermal runaway in electric vehicle batteries and cryogenic industrial processes (e.g., LNG). This data-file notes some challenges, using our usual patent review framework.
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Solid Power is developing solid-state batteries, using sulphide electrolytes. Ambitious goals include >500 miles of EV range (50-100% more than today's lithium ion batteries), 2x higher life-spans and costs as low as $85/kWh. The company is going public via SPAC, valued at $1.2bn, and has an exceptional list of backers.
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Carbon Clean is a CCS company. It has already captured over 1MT, across 38 facilities. But in addition, it is developing a next-generation design, which could ultimately lower cost to $30-40/ton. Our review finds a very decent, albeit concentrated patent library, following our usual framework.
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Monolith claims it is the "only producer of cost effective commercially viable clean hydrogen today" as it has developed a proprietary technology for methane pyrolysis. But overall this was not one of our most successful patent screens. Some specific question marks are noted in the data-file.
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Shoals Technologies Group manufactures electrical balance of system solutions for solar energy projects, focused on promoting reliability, safety and ease of installation. Electrical installation costs can be lowered 40%. Our patent review finds a technology moat on 35% EBITDA margins.
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ChargePoint is the leading provider of Level 2 EV charging stations in the US and aims to help electrify mobility and freignt. Our review finds a library of simple, clear, specific and easy-to-understand patents. More debatable are the technology edge and future IP defensability.
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Form Energy is aiming to commercialize a metal-air battery, for long-duration energy storage, using only safe and Earth-abundant materials. The first 1MW/150MWH system could be deployed by 2023. Compared to other patent libraries, we have found it harder to de-risk Form's technology.
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Lilac Solutions aims to commercialize a lithium ion exchange technology, which can extract lithium from dilute brine solutions, rapidly, economically and scalably. Overall Lilac's patents look promising to us. They contain some excellent, precise and intelligible details on making ion exchange materials.
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Siemens Gamesa is a leader in offshore wind, pushing the boundaries towards a 14MW turbine with an incredible 222m rotor diameter. Our main debate from reviewing its patents is whether the engineering challenges of large turbines is consistent with deflation expectations.
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Stem Inc. went public via SPAC in April-2021, supporting grid-scale batteries with optimization software, which can lower energy bills by 10-30% in the energy transition. Its patents scored reasonably well on our usual framework. Managing short-term renewables volatility was a crucial focus.
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Array Technologies IPO-ed in October-2020. It manufactures solar tracking systems, supporting 25% of US solar modules installed to date. Its systems can uplift solar generation by 5-25%. we found clear, specific, intelligible patents, back-stopping six out of seven key strengths that have been cited by the company.
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Carbios has developed an enyzmatic process to recycle 90% of PET within 10-hours, which has been described in Nature. "This highly efficient, optimized enzyme outperforms all PET hydrolases reported so far". Economics and CO2 savings can be very exciting. But our work identifies four challenges, which were hard to re-risk.
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Climeworks is a Swiss company, founded in 2009, commercializing a direct air capture technology. The main innovation in its patents optimizes air flow, to avoid steep pressure drops, which can otherwise de-rail DAC economics. But we are still unable to de-risk sub-$200/ton CO2 costs based on reviewing the patents.
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Danimer Scientific is a producer of PHA, a biodegradable plastic feedstock. PHA still has commercial challenges in its processing, mechanical properties and 4-5x higher costs than conventional plastics. Yet our patent review finds Danimer has made some specific, intelligible innovations, earning a solid score of 3.5 on our technology framework.
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Nio is a listed, electric vehicle manufacturer, headquartered in Shanghai. It operates over 200 "battery swap" stations, and the 2-millionth battery swap was completed in March-2021, with swap times soon falling to 3-minutes. Our patent analysis suggests a genuine moat in swappable batteries, which could only have been built up by an auto-maker.
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LanzaTech aspires to "take waste carbon emissions and convert them" into sustainable fuels (and bio-plastics) with a >70% CO2 reduction. We have assessed its patents but concluded we cannot yet de-risk the CO2-to-fuels pathway in our energy transition models.
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Origin Materials went public via SPAC in February-2021, as it was acquired by Artius Acquisition Inc at a valuation of $1.8bn. Its ambition is to use wood residues to create carbon-negative plastics, cost-competitively with petroleum products. This data-file outlines our conclusions from reviewing patents.
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Enovix has developed a 3D silicon lithium-ion battery, 5-years ahead of the broader industry, with 2x higher energy density. The company went public via SPAC in February-2021, with an implied post-deal valuation of $1.12bn. This data-file assesses its technology breakthroughs.
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StoreDot is developing "extreme fast-charging" batteries for electric vehicles, using a proprietary range of nanomaterial additives. It claims prototype cells can charge 5-6x faster than conventional lithium ion. This data-file assesses StoreDot patents from 2019-20, looking to de-mystify its breakthroughs.
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This data-file reviews 25 of QuantumScape's 2019-20 patents, in order to substantiate its claims of a solid-state battery than can achieve c50-100% higher energy density than conventional lithium ion batteries, 3x faster charging, while also surviving hundreds of charge-discharge cycles without degradation.
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