Energy Technologies – Written Insights

Thunder Said Energy is a research firm focused on energy technologies and energy transition. We work with over 250 organizations, to help them find economic opportunities, which can improve the world’s energy system, and help the world reach ‘net zero’. We have two subscription tiers (details here). This page contains our most recent research reports (PDFs), available to clients with our written insights subscription. Please email us any time if you are looking for particular content, if we can field any questions, or focus our upcoming research into areas that will help you.

Written Insights

Cool customers: AI data-centers and industrial HVAC?

Chips must usually be kept below 27ºC, hence 10-20% of both the capex and energy consumption of a typical data-center is cooling, as explored in this 14-page report. How much does climate matter? What changes lie ahead? And which companies sell into this soon-to-double market for cooling equipment?
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Energy intensity of AI: chomping at the bit?

Rising energy demands of AI are now the biggest uncertainty in all of global energy. To understand why, this 17-page note explains AI computing from first principles, across transistors, DRAM, GPUs and deep learning. GPU efficiency will inevitably increase, but compute increases faster. AI most likely uses 300-2,500 TWH in 2030, with a base case of 1,000 TWH.
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Midstream gas: pipelines have pricing power ?!

FERC regulations are surprisingly interesting!! In theory, gas pipelines are not allowed to have market power. But increasingly, they do have it: gas use is rising, on grid bottlenecks, volatile renewables and AI; while new pipeline investments are being hindered. So who benefits here? Answers are explored in this report.
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Energy and AI: the power and the glory?  

The power demands of AI will contribute to the largest growth of new generation capacity in history. This 18-page note evaluates the power implications of AI data-centers. Reliability is crucial. Gas demand grows. Annual sales of CCGTs and back-up gensets in the US both rise by 2.5x? This is our most detailed AI report to date.
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Energy transition: key conclusions from 1Q24?

This 11-page note summarizes the key conclusions from our energy transition research in 1Q24 and across 1,400 companies that have crossed our screens since 2019. Volatility is rising. Power grids are bottlenecked. Hence what stands out in capital goods, clean-tech, solar, gas value chains and materials? And what is most overlooked?
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Power beaming: into thin air?

What if large quantities of power could be transmitted via the 2-6 GHz microwave spectrum, rather than across bottlenecked cables and wires? This 12-page note explores the technology, advantages, opportunities, challenges, efficiencies and costs. We still fear power grid bottlenecks.
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Bottlenecked grids: winners and losers?

What if the world is entering an era of persistent power grid bottlenecks, with long delays to interconnect new loads? Everything changes. Hence this 16-page report looks across the energy and industrial landscape, to rank the implications across different sectors and companies.
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Power grids: the biggest bottleneck in the world?

Power grids will be the biggest bottleneck in the energy transition, according to this 18-page report. Tensions have been building for a decade. They are invisible unless you are looking. And the tightness could last a decade. Further acceleration of renewables may be thwarted. And we are re-thinking grid back-ups.
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Global energy capex: building in boom times?

Energy transition is the largest construction project in human history. But building in boom times is associated with 2-3x cost inflation. This 10-page note reviews five case studies of prior capex booms, and argues for accelerating FIDs, even in 2024. The outlook for project developers depends on their timing? And who benefits across the supply chain?
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Thermoelectric generation: is it the next solar?

Solar semiconductors have changed the world, converting light into clean electricity. Hence can thermoelectric semiconductors follow the same path, converting heat into electricity with no moving parts? This 14-page report reviews the opportunity for thermoelectric generation in the energy transition, challenges, efficiency, costs and companies.
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Global energy demand: nervous breakdown?

We have attempted a detailed breakdown of global energy demand across 50 categories, to identify emerging opportunities in the energy transition, and suggesting upside to our energy demand forecasts? This 12-page note sets out our conclusions and is intended a useful reference.
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Global solar: absorption spectrum?

How much new solar can the world absorb in a given year? And are core markets such as the US now maturing? This 15-page note refines our solar forecasts using a new methodology. Annual solar adds will likely plateau at 50-100% of total electricity demand growth in most regions. What implications and adaptation strategies?
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Enhanced geothermal: digging deeper?

Momentum behind enhanced geothermal has accelerated 3x in the past half-decade, especially in energy-short Europe, and as pilot projects have de-risked novel well designs. This 18-page report re-evaluates the energy economics of geothermal from first principles. Is there a path to cost-competitive, zero-carbon baseload heat?
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Oil markets: rising volatility?

Oil markets endure 4 major volatility events per year, with a magnitude of +/- 320kbpd, on average. Their net impact detracts -100kbpd. OPEC and shale have historically buffered out the volatility, so annual oil output is 70% less volatile than renewables’ output. This 10-page note explores the numbers and the changes that lie ahead?
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Electrochemistry: redox potential?

Batteries, electrolysers and cleaner metals/materials value chains all hinge on electrochemistry. Hence this 19-page note explains the energy economics from first principles. The physics are constructive for lithium and next-gen electrowinning, but perhaps challenge green hydrogen aspirations?
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Energy market volatility: climate change?

This 14-page note predicts a staggering increase in global energy market volatility, which doubles by 2050, while extreme events that sway energy balances by +/- 2% will become 250x more frequent. A key reason is that the annual output from wind, solar and hydro all vary by +/- 3-5% each year, while wind and solar will ramp from 5.5% to 30% of all global energy. Rising volatility can be a kingmaker for midstream companies? What other implications?
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New energies: filter feeder?

The $1bn pa harmonic filter market likely expands by 10x in the energy transition, as almost all new energies and digital technologies inject harmonic distortion to the grid. This 17-page note argues for premiumization in power electronics, including around solar, and screens for who benefits?
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Energy transition: ten themes for 2024?

Navigating the energy transition in 2024 requires focusing in upon bright spots, because global energy priorities are shifting. Emerging nations are ramping coal to avoid energy shortages. Geopolitical tensions are escalating. So where are the bright spots? This 14-page note makes 10 predictions for 2024.
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Energy transition companies: a new approach?

150 core companies have been mentioned 700 times across all of our research since 2019; within a broader list of 1,300 total companies exposed to energy transition, diversified by geography, by size and by segment. This 12-page note draws conclusions about the most mentioned companies in our energy transition research.
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Decarbonizing global energy: the route to net zero?

What is the most likely route to net zero by 2050, decarbonizing a planet of 9.5bn people, 50% higher energy demand, and abating 80GTpa of potential CO2? Net zero is achievable. But only with pragmatism. This 20-page report summarizes the best opportunities, resultant energy mix, bottlenecks for 30 commodities, and changes to our views in 2023.
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Solar and wind: what decarbonization costs?

The costs of decarbonizing by ramping up solar and wind depend on the context. But our best estimate is that solar and wind can reach 40% of the global grid for a $60/ton average CO2 abatement cost. This is relatively low. Yet it raises retail electricity prices from 10c/kWh to 12c/kWh. This 7-page note explores the numbers.
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Power grids: when will wind and solar peak?

Wind and solar peak at 50-55% of power grids, without demand-shifting and batteries, before their economics become overwhelmed by curtailment rates and backup costs. More in wind-heavy grids. Less in solar heavy grids. This 12-page note draws conclusions from the statistical distribution of renewables’ generation across 100,000 x 5-minute grid intervals.
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Peak commodities: everything, everywhere, all at once?

This 15-page note evaluates 10 commodity disruptions since the Stone Age. Peak demand for commodities is just possible, in total tonnage terms, as part of the energy transition. But it is historically unprecedented. And our plateau in tonnage terms is a doubling in value terms, a kingmaker for gas, plastics and materials. Outlooks for 30 major commodities are reviewed.
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Thermal energy storage: heat of the moment?

Thermal energy storage will outcompete other batteries and hydrogen for avoiding renewable curtailments and integrating more solar? Overlooked advantages are discussed in this 21-page report, plus a fast-evolving company landscape. What implications for solar, gas and industrial incumbents?
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Renewable-heavy grids: dividing the pie?

The levelized cost of partial electricity (LCOPE) is very different from the levelized cost of total electricity (LCOTE). This 21-page note explores the distinction. It suggests renewables will peak at 30-60% of power grids? And gas is particularly well-placed as a back-up, set to surprise, by entrenching at 30-50% of renewables-heavy grids?
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Market concentration: what impacts on margins?

We have assessed over 100 markets in energy, materials, manufacturing and decarbonization across our research. More concentrated industries achieve higher margins across the cycle. But not always. This 10-page report draws out seven rules of thumb around market concentration to help decision-makers.
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Redox flow batteries: for the duration?

Redox flow batteries have 6-24 hour durations and require 15-20c/kWh storage spreads. They will increasingly compete with lithium ion batteries in grid-scale storage. Does this unlock a step-change for peak renewables penetration? Or create 3-30x upside for total global Vanadium demand? This 15-page note is our outlook.
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Hydrogen evolution: outlook for industrial gases?

110MTpa of hydrogen is produced each year, emitting 1.3GTpa of CO2. We think the market doubles to 220MTpa by 2050. This is c60% ‘below consensus’. Decarbonization also disrupts 80% of today’s asset base. Our outlook varies by region. This 17-page note explores the evolution of hydrogen markets and implications for industrial gas incumbents?
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Semiconductor physics: pièce de resistance?

Semiconductors underpin solar panels, electric vehicles and electronics. Hence this 20-page note aims to explain semiconductor physics from first principles: their conductivity and resistance, their use in devices, plus implications for materials value chains and the energy transition itself?
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War and commodities: how do conflicts impact prices?

This 10-page note charts how fourteen commodities were affected, across a dozen conflicts, going back to 1800. During major conflicts, 95% of commodities saw higher prices. The average commodity doubled. There is a strong role for commodities hedging portfolios and even entire nations against conflicts.
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DAC to the future?

A new wave of DAC companies has been emerging rapidly since 2019, targeting 50-90% lower costs and energy penalties than incumbent S-DAC and L-DAC, potentially reaching $100/ton and 500kWh/ton in the 2030s. Five opportunities excite us and warrant partial de-risking in this 19-page report. Could DAC even beat batteries and hydrogen in smoothing renewable-heavy grids?
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New energies: the age of materials?

Over the past decade, costs have deflated by 85% for lithium ion batteries, 75% for solar and 25% for onshore wind. Now new energies are entering a new era. Future costs are mainly determined by materials. Bottlenecks matter. Deflation is slower. Even higher-grade materials are needed to raise efficiency. This 14-page note explores the new age of materials, how much new energies deflation is left, and who benefits?
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Jevons Paradox: what evidence for energy savings?

Using a commodity more efficiently can cause its demand to rise not fall, as greater efficiency opens up unforeseen possibilities. This is Jevons' Paradox. Our 16-page report finds it is more prevalent than we expected. Efficiency gains underpin 25% of our roadmap to net zero. To be effective, commodity prices must also rise and remain high, otherwise rebound effects will raise demand.
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Shale oil: fractured forecasts?

This 17-page note makes the largest changes to our shale forecasts in five years, on both quantitative and qualitative signs that productivity growth is slowing. Productivity peaks after 2025, precisely as energy markets hit steep undersupply. We still see +1Mbpd/year of liquids potential through 2030, but it is back loaded, and requires persistently higher oil prices?
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LEDs: seeing the light?

Lighting is 2% of global energy, 6% of electricity, 25% of buildings’ energy. LEDs are 2-20x more efficient than alternatives. Hence this 16-page report presents our outlook for LEDs in the energy transition. We think LED market share doubles to c100% in the 2030s, to save energy, especially in solar-heavy grids. But demand is also rising due to ‘rebound effects’ and use in digital devices.
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Offshore wind: the lion, the witch and the wardrobe?

This 14-page report re-visits our wind industry outlook. Our long-term forecasts are reluctantly being revised downwards by 25%, especially for offshore wind, where levelized costs have reinflated by 30% to 13c/kWh. Material costs are widely blamed. But rising rates are the greater evil. Upscaling is also stalling. What options to right this ship?
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Industrial ecosystems: on the shoulders of giants?

This 14-page report explores whether global industrial activity is set to become ever more concentrated in a few advantaged locations, especially the US Gulf Coast, China and the Middle East. Industries form ecosystems. Different species cluster together. Elsewhere, you can no more re-shore a few select industries than introduce dung beetles onto the moon. These mega-trends matter for valuations.
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HJT solar: Indium summer?

HJT solar modules are accelerating, as they are efficient and easy to manufacture. But HJT could also be a kingmaker for Indium, used in transparent and conductive thin films (ITO). Our forecasts see primary Indium demand rising 4x by 2050. This 16-page note explores the costs and benefits of using ITO in HJTs, and who benefits as solar cells evolve?
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Polyurethanes: what upside in energy transition?

Polyurethanes are elastic polymers, used for insulation, electric vehicles, electronics and apparel. This $75bn pa market expands 3x by 2050. But could energy transition double historically challenging margins, by freeing up feedstock supplies? This 13-page note builds a full mass balance for the 20+ stage polyurethane value chain and screens 20 listed companies.
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Renewables: the levelized cost paradox?

There is an economic paradox where shifting towards lower cost supply sources can cause inflation in the total costs of supply. Renewable-heavy grids are subject to this paradox, as they have high fixed costs and falling utilization. As power prices rise, there are growing incentives for self-generation. Energy transition requires a balanced, pragmatic approach.
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Crude to chemicals: there will be naphtha?

Oil markets are transitioning, with electric vehicles displacing 20Mbpd of gasoline by 2050, while petrochemical demand rises by almost 10Mbpd. So it is often said oil refiners should 'become chemicals companies'. It depends. This 18-page report charts petrochemical pathways and sees opportunity in chemicals that can absorb surplus BTX.
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Smooth operators: who benefits from volatile power grids?

Some industries can absorb low-cost electricity when renewables are over-generating and avoid high-cost electricity when they are under-generating. The net result can lower electricity costs by 2-3c/kWh and uplift ROCEs by 5-15% in increasingly renewables-heavy grids. This 14-page note ranges over 10,000 demand shifting opportunities, to identify who can benefit most.
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Global decarbonization: speeding up or slowing down?

This 16-page report breaks down global CO2 emissions, across six causal factors and 28 countries-regions. Global emissions rose at +0.7% pa in 2017-22, unchanged on 2012-17, even as global income growth slowed by -0.5% pa. Depressing. The biggest reason is underinvestment in gas. Reaching net zero requires vast acceleration in renewables, infrastructure, nuclear, gas and nature.
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Hydrogen reformers: SMR versus ATR?

Blue hydrogen value chains are gaining momentum. Especially in the US. So this 16-page note contrasts steam-methane reforming (SMR) versus autothermal reforming (ATR). Each has merits and challenges. ATR looks excellent for clean ammonia. While the IRA creates CCS upside for today’s SMR incumbents, across industrial gases, refining and chemicals.
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Omniscience: how will AI reshape the energy transition?

AI will be a game-changer for global energy efficiency, saving 10x more energy than it consumes directly, closing 'thermodynamic gaps' where 80-90% of all primary energy is wasted today. Leading corporations will harness AI to lower costs and accelerate decarbonization. This 19-page note explores opportunities.
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Industrial gas separation: swing producers?

Swing Adsorption separates gases, based on their differential loading onto zeolite adsorbents at varying pressures. Today, tens of thousands of PSA plants purify hydrogen, biogas, polymers, nitrogen/oxygen and possibly in the future, can capture CO2? This 16-page note explores PSA technology for industrial gases.
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Electric vehicles: breaking the ICE?

Electric vehicles are a world-changing technology, 2-6x more efficient than ICEs, but how quickly will they ramp up to re-shape global oil demand? This 14-page note finds surprising ‘stickiness’. Even as EV sales explode to 200M units by 2050 (2x all-time peak ICE sales), the global ICE fleet may only fall by 40%. Will LT oil demand surprise to the upside or downside?
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Energy technologies: the pace of progress?

This 12-page note looks back over 5-years of energy technology research. Progress has often been slower than we expected. Maturing early-stage technology takes 20-30 years. Progress slows as work shifts from the lab to the real world. We wonder whether 2050 will look more like 2023 than many expect; or if decarbonization must rely more on today’s mature technologies?
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Industrial gases: out of thin air?

Cryogenic air separation is used to produce 400MTpa of oxygen, plus pure nitrogen and argon; for steel, metals, ammonia, wind-solar inputs, semiconductor, blue hydrogen and Allam cycle oxy-combustion. Hence this 16-page report is an overview of industrial gases. How does air separation work? What costs, energy use and CO2 intensity? Who benefits amidst the energy transition?
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Power grids: down to the wire?

Power grid circuit kilometers need to rise 3-5x in the energy transition. This trend directly tightens global aluminium markets by over c20%, and global copper markets by c15%. Slow recent progress may lead to bottlenecks, then a boom? This 12-page note quantifies the rising demand for circuit kilometers, grid infrastructure, underlying metals and who benefits?
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Shorter Insights

Maxwell’s demon: computation is energy?

Computation, the internet and AI are inextricably linked to energy. Information processing literally is an energy flow. This note explains the physics, from Maxwell's demon, to the entropy of information, to the efficiency of computers.
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Electric adventures: conclusions from an EV road trip?

It is a rite of passage for every energy analyst to rent an electric vehicle for an EV road trip, then document their observations and experiences. Our conclusions are that range anxiety is real, chargers benefit retailers, economics are debatable, power grids will be the biggest bottleneck and our EV growth forecasts are not overly optimistic.
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European gas: anatomy of an energy crisis?

Europe suffered a full-blown energy crisis in 2022, hence what happened to gas demand, as prices rose 5x from 2019 levels? European gas demand in 2022 fell -13% overall, including -13% for heating, -6% for electricity and -17% for industry. The data suggest upside to for European gas, global LNG and gas as the leading backup to renewables.
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LNG ramp-rates: MTpa per month and volatility?

What are the typical ramp-rates of LNG plants, and how volatile are these ramp-ups? We have monthly data on serveral facilities in our LNG models, implying 4-5MTpa LNG trains ramp at +0.7MTpa/month, with a +/- 35% monthly volatility around this trajectory. Thus do LNG ramps create upside for energy traders?
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Email deliverability: who broke the internet?

This video explains email mailing lists, SPF, DKIM, DMARC, lessons learned over 15-years, and an unfortunate issue from December that prevented 4,000 subscribers from receiving our research. We're sorry. We've fixed it! And some comments follow below to make sure important research reaches you.
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Energy transition from first principles?

Our top three questions in the energy transition are depicted above. Hence we have become somewhat obsessed with analyzing the energy transition from first principles, to help our clients understand the global energy system, understand new energy technologies and understand key industries. 
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Energy transition: three reflections on 2023?

In October-2022, we wrote that high interest rates could create an 'unbridled disaster' for new energies in 2023. So where could we have done better in helping our clients to navigate this challenging year? Our new year's resolutions are clearer conclusions, predictions over moralizations, and looking through macro noise to keep long-term mega-trends in mind.
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Thermodynamics of prime movers: energy from first principles?

A highlight of 2023 has been going back to first principles, to explain the underpinnings of prime movers in the global energy system. If you understand the thermodynamics of prime movers, you will inevitably conclude that the world is evolving towards solar, semi-conductors, electro-magnetic motors, lithium batteries and high-grade gas turbines.
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Grid-scale battery costs: $/kW or $/kWh?

Grid-scale battery costs can be measured in $/kW or $/kWh terms. Thinking in kW terms is more helpful for modelling grid resiliency. A good rule of thumb is that grid-scale lithium ion batteries will have 4-hours of storage duration, as this minimizes per kW costs and maximizes the revenue potential from power price arbitrage.
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Energy transition: active duty?

After five years researching the energy transition, we believe it favors active managers. Within the energy transition, active managers can add value by ranging across this vast mega-trend, balancing risk factors in a portfolio, timing volatility, understanding complexity, unearthing specific opportunities and benchmarking ESG leaders and laggards.
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Levelized costs: real issues?

Real levelized costs can be a misleading metric. The purpose of today's short note is simply to inform decision-makers who care about levelized costs. Our own modelling preference is to compare costs, on a flat pricing basis, using apples-to-apples assumptions across our economic models.
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US natural gas: blue hydrogen tightens global LNG markets?

Blue hydrogen value chains are starting to boom in the US, as they are technically ready, low cost, and are now receiving enormous economic support from the Inflation Reduction Act. But will this divert gas away from expanding US LNG, raise global LNG prices above $20/mcf and impact global energy markets more than expected?
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Industrial materials: thermodynamic efficiency?

The thermodynamic efficiency of materials production averages 20%, within an interquartile range of 5% to 50%. There is most room for improvement in complex value chains. And very different energy costs for blue vs green H2.
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Energy economics: engineering wonders?

Many questions that matter in the energy transition are engineering questions, which flow through to energy economics: which technologies work, what do they cost, what energy penalties they have, and which materials do they use? We see an intersection for economics and engineering in our energy transition research.
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Energy transition: investment strategies?

Investing involves being paid to take risk. And we think energy transition investing involves being paid to take ten distinct risks, which determine justified returns. This note argues that investors should consider these risk premia, which ones they will seek out, and which ones they will avoid.
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Green hydrogen: alkaline versus PEM electrolysers?

This note spells out the top ten differences between alkaline and PEM electrolysers. The lowest cost green hydrogen will likely come from alkaline electrolysers in nuclear/hydro-heavy grids. If hydrogen is to back up wind/solar, it would likely require PEMs.
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Research philosophy: what makes great research?

One of TSE's clients asked if Rob would present to their team on the topic of “what makes great research?”. We do not have any delusions of grandeur on this front. But this video nevertheless makes for a nice summary. (1) Ask simple questions, (2) Make complex issues simpler (3) Earn trust (aka be wrong for the right reasons).
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How does methane increase global temperature?

How does methane increase global temperature? This article outlines the theory. The formulae suggest 0.7 W/m2 of radiative forcing and 0.35ºC of warming has occurred due to methane leaks, which is 20-30% of the total. There are controversies and uncertainties. But ramping gas is still heavily justified in a practical roadmap to net zero.
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How does CO2 increase global temperature?

The purpose of this short article is to explain mathematical formulas linking global temperature to the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. In other words, our goal is to settle upon a simple equation, explaining how CO2 causes global warming. In turn, this is why our roadmap to net zero aims to reach 'net zero' by 2050, stabilize atmospheric CO2 below 450ppm, and we believe this scenario is compatible with 2ºC of warming.
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Energy transition: a six page summary from summer-2022?

“It provokes the desire, but it takes away the performance.” That is the porter’s view of alcohol in Act II Scene III of Macbeth. It is also our view of 2022’s impact on the energy transition. Our resultant outlook is captured in six concise pages, published in the Walter Scott Journal in Summer-2022.
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Energy transition: five reflections after 3.5 years?

This video covers our top five reflections after 3.5 years, running a research firm focused on energy transition. The greatest value is found in low-cost decarbonization technologies, resource bottlenecks and hidden nuances and bottom-up opportunities.
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All the coal in China: our top ten charts?

Chinese coal provides 15% of the world’s energy, equivalent to 4 Saudi Arabia's worth of oil. Global energy markets may become 10% under-supplied if this output plateaus per our ‘net zero’ scenario. Alternatively, might China ramp its coal, especially as Europe bids harder for renewables and LNG post-Russia? This note presents our ‘top ten’ charts.
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Battle of the batteries: EVs vs grid storage?

Who will ‘win’ the intensifying competition for finite lithium ion batteries, in a world that is hindered by shortages of lithium, graphite, nickel and cobalt in 2022-25? Today’s note argues EVs should outcompete grid-scale storage by a factor of 2-4x.
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Energy shortages: medieval horrors?

Energy shortages are gripping the world in 2022. The 1970s are one analogy. But the 14th century was truly medieval. Today’s note reviews its top ten features. This is not a romantic portrayal of pre-industrial civilization, some simpler time “before fossil fuels”. It is a horror show of deficiencies. Avoiding energy shortages should be a core ESG goal.
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Helion: linear fusion breakthrough?

Helion is developing a linear fusion reactor, which has entirely re-thought the technology (like the 'Tesla of nuclear fusion'). It could have costs of 1-6c/kWh, be deployed at 50-200MWe modular scale and overcome many challenges of tokamaks. Progress so far includes 100MºC and a $2.2bn fund-raise, the largest of any private fusion company to-date. This note sets out its 'top ten' features.
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Oil and War: ten conclusions from WWII?

The second world war was decided by oil. Each country's war-time strategy was dictated by its availability, quality and attempts to secure more of it, including by rationing non-critical uses of it. Ultimately, halting the oil meant halting the war. Today's short note outlines out top ten conclusions from reviewing the history.
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Russia conflict: pain and suffering?

This 13-page note presents 10 hypotheses on Russia's horrific conflict. Energy supplies will very likely get disrupted, as Putin no longer needs to break the will of Ukraine, but also the West. Results include energy rationing and economic pain. Climate goals get shelved in this war-time scramble. Pragmatism, nuclear and LNG emerge from the ashes. 
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Energy transition: hierarchy of needs?

This gloomy video explores growing fears that the energy transition could 'fall apart' in the mid-late 2020s, due to energy shortages and geopolitical discord. Constructive solutions will include debottlenecking resource-bottlenecks, efficiency technologies and natural gas pragmatism.
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Sitka spruce: our top ten facts?

Sitka spruce is a fast-growing conifer, which now dominates UK forestry, and sequesters net CO2 up to 2x faster than mixed broadleaves. It can absorb 6-10 tons of CO2 per acre per year, at Yield Classes 16-30+, on 40 year rotations. This short note lays out our top ten conclusions, including benefits, drawbacks and implications.
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Coal versus gas: explaining the CO2 intensity?

Coal and gas both provide c25% of all primary global energy. But gas's CO2 intensity is 50% less than coal's. This short note explains the different carbon intensities from first principles, including bond enthalpies, production processes and efficiency factors.
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Decarbonized supply chains: first invent the universe?

"If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, first you must invent the universe". This captures the challenge of decarbonizing complex global supply chains. This note argues for each company in a supply chain to drive its own Scope 1&2 CO2 emissions towards zero on a net basis. Resulting products can be described as "clear", "transparent" or "translucent".
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Energy transition: grand masters?

Energy transition is like a game of chess: impossible to get right, unless you are looking at the entire board. Rigid coverage models do not work. This video explores the emergence of energy strategist roles at firms that care about energy transition, and how to become a 'grand master' in 2022.
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Established technologies: hiding in plain sight?

Decision-makers are possibly over-indexing their attention on game-changing new technologies, at the expense of over-looking pre-existing ones. Hence the purpose of this short note will be to re-cap our 'top ten' most overlooked, established technologies that can cost-effectively help the world reach net zero.
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Reforestation in Estonia: six months in?

This short note is a progress update, including videos and drone footage, on our aspirations to undertake a series of reforestation projects in Estonia. It covers considerations for selecting land; and our first small investment to plant spruce in 2022.
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Sustainable forestry: a new listed entity?

For the first time, in November-2021, a moderate-sized company has gone public with a mandate to generate CPI + 5% returns, by investing in forestry and nature-based afforestation projects. This short article summarizes the key points from the 216-page prospectus.
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Neodymium market: our top ten facts?

Neodymium is a crucial Rare Earth metal, used in permanent magnets for the ramp-up of wind turbines and electric vehicles. The market is small, but fast-growing. This could create opportunities, as bottlenecks and cost-inflation need to be kept in check. Hence this short note outlines our 'top ten facts'.
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Power functions: how would gas shortages change the cost curve?

This note evaluates how sustained gas shortages could re-shape power markets (chart above). Nuclear is the greatest beneficiary, as its cost premium narrows. The balance also includes more renewables, batteries and power-electronics; and less gas, until gas prices normalized. Self-defeatingly, we would also expect less short-term decarbonization via coal-to-gas switching.
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Energy transition: old Soviet jokes?

After six months living in Tallinn, Estonia, the history of the Baltic States has been swirling around in my mind. Especially a list of old jokes, told during Soviet times, about persistent industrial shortages, propaganda, the suppression of dissent and the ridiculousness of planned economies. This video explores whether there is any overlap with energy transition policies.
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Switching gears: the most potent GHG in the world?

SF6 is an unparalleled dielectric material, used to quench electric arcs in medium- and high-voltage switchgear. There is only one problem. It is the most potent GHG in the world. Therefore, it may be helpful to find replacements for SF6, amidst the ascent of renewables and electrification. This note discusses resultant opportunities in capital goods and some minor cost inflation consequences.
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Grid volatility: are batteries finally in the money?

UK power price volatility has exploded in 2021. The average daily range has risen 4x from 2019-20, to 35c/kWh in 3Q21. At this level, grid-scale batteries are strongly ‘in the money’. So will the high volatility persist? This is the question in today's 6-page note.
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