Energy Technologies – Written Insights

‘Levelized cost’ analysis can be mis-used, as though one ‘energy source to rule them all’ was on the cusp of pushing out all the other energy sources. Cost depends on context. Every power source usually ranges from 5-15c/kWh. A resilient, low-carbon grid is diversified. And there is hidden value.
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A new solar cell is vying to re-shape the PV industry, with 2-5% efficiency gains and c25-35% lower silicon use. This 13-page note reviews TOPCon cells, which will take some sting out of solar re-inflation, tighten silver bottlenecks and may further entrench China’s solar giants.
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Wind and solar have so far leaned upon conventional power grids. But larger deployments will increasingly need to produce their own reactive power; controllably, dynamically. Demand for STATCOMs & SVCs may thus rise 30x, to over $25-50bn pa. This 20-page note outlines the opportunity and who benefits?
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Power factor corrections could save 0.5% of global electricity, with $20/ton CO2 abatement costs in normal times, and 30% pure IRRs during energy shortages. They will also be needed to integrate more new energies into power grids. This note outlines the opportunity in capacitor banks, their economics and leading companies.
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How will food and energy shortages re-shape liquid biofuels? This 11-page note explores four questions. Could the US re-consider its ethanol blending to help world food security? Could rising cash costs of bio-diesel inflate global diesel prices to $6-8/gal? Will renewable diesel expansion be dialed back? What outlook for each biofuel in the energy transition?
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China is 18% of the world’s people and GDP. But it makes c50% of the world’s metals, 60% of its wind turbines, 70% of its solar panels and 80% of its lithium ion batteries. Re-shoring is likely to be a growing motivation after events of 2022. This 14-page note explores resultant opportunities.
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Electricity transmission matters in the energy transition, integrating dispersed renewables over long distances to reach growing demand centers. This 15-page note argues future transmission needs will favor large HVDCs, costing 2-3c/kWh per 1,000km, which are materially lower-cost and more efficient than other alternatives.
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The carbon credentials of wood are not black-and-white. They depend on context. So this 13-page note draws out the numbers and five key conclusions. They highlight climate negatives for deforestation, climate positives for using waste wood and wood materials (with some debate around paper), and very strong climate positives for natural gas.
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Direct Lithium Extraction from brines could help lithium scale 30x in the Energy Transition; with costs and CO2 intensities 30-70% below mined lithium; while avoiding the 1-2 year time-lags of evaporative salars. This 15-page note reviews the top ten challenges that decision-makers need to de-risk.
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Spot markets have delivered more and more ‘commodities on demand’. But is this model fit for energy transition? Many markets are now short, causing explosive price rises. Sufficient volumes may still not be available at any price. This note considers a renaissance for long-term contracts.
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Global graphite volumes grow 6x in the energy transition, mostly driven by electric vehicles. We see the industry moving away from China’s near-exclusive control. The future favors a handful of Western producers, integrated from mine to anode, with CO2 intensity below 10kg/kg. This 10-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Can forests absorb CO2 at multi-GTpa scale? This 19-page note is a case study from Finland, where detailed data goes back a century. 70% of the country is forest. It is managed sustainably, equitably, economically. And forests have sequestered 2GT of CO2 in the past century, offsetting two-thirds of the country’s fossil emissions.
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The global nickel market will grow from $30bn pa to $300bn in the energy transition, including a 5x increase in volumes and 2x increase in price. This 15-page note evaluates the nickel supply chain for electric vehicle battery cathodes. Deficits are looming. Hence we end by screening nickel names.
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‘Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated’. Mark Twain’s quote also applies to global oil consumption. This note aggregates demand data for 8 oil products and 120 countries over the COVID pandemic. We see 3.5Mbpd of pent-up demand ‘upside’, acting as a floor on medium-term oil prices.
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Energy shortages are now the second largest problem in the world. Hence this 14-page note evaluates short- and medium-term options to alleviate them. Despite a lot of posturing, we see 'new energies' slowing down in 2022-23. The world is upside down and somehow coal is going to be an unexpected savior.
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Deepening energy shortages in 2022-30 could devastate low-income countries, geopolitically isolate the West, and de-rail decarbonization. This 13-page note evaluates the linkage between energy consumption and income over the past half century and quantifies what a 'just transition' would look like.
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This 14-page note explains the crucial power-electronics in an electric vehicle fast-charging station that runs at 150-350kW. Most important are power-MOSFETs, comprising c5-10% of charger costs. The market trebles by the late 2020s.
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If global energy supplies run short, then someone has to curtail demand. Europe is in the firing line, with 7% of the world’s people, using 17% of its energy, of which 65% is imported. So this 13-page note searches for the least bad options to cut European energy demand. Energy intensive industries may shutter and never return.
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This 14-page note compares the economics of EV charging stations with conventional fuel retail stations. Our main question is whether EV chargers will ultimately get over-built. Hence prospects may be best for charging equipment and component manufacturers.
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Nuclear fusion could provide a limitless supply of zero-carbon energy from the 2030s onwards. The goal of this 20-page note is simply to understand the challenges for fusion reactors, especially deuterium-tritium tokamaks. Innovations need to improve EROI, stability, longevity and costs.
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Perceptions in the energy transition are likely to change in 2022, amidst energy shortages, inflation and geopolitical discord. The biggest change will be a re-prioritization of US LNG. At $7.5/mcf, there is 200MTpa of upside by 2030, which could also abate 1GTpa of CO2. This 15 page note outlines our conclusions. 
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Glass fiber makes up 50% of a wind turbine blade, lightens vehicles and insulates homes for 30-70% energy savings. Hence we see demand rising 3.5x in the energy transition. To appraise the opportunity, this 13-page note assesses the market, costs, CO2 intensity and leading companies.
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How fast can wind and solar accelerate, especially if energy shortages persist? This 11-page note reviews the top ten bottlenecks. Seven value chains will tighten enormously in the coming years. Paradoxically, however, ramping renewables could exacerbate near-term energy shortages.
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We are all hoping for ‘normalization’ in 2022. But what if the world is instead entering a full-blown energy crisis, as severe and persistent as the first ‘oil shock’? This 21-page note lays out ten hypotheses, drawing on history. Everything we know about energy transition may change this year.
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This 18-page report revises our roadmap for the world to reach 'net zero' by 2050. The average cost is still $40/ton of CO2, with an upper bound of $120/ton, but this masks material mix-shifts. New opportunities are largest in efficiency gains, under-supplied commodities, power-electronics, conventional CCUS and nature-based CO2 removals.
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The average solar asset declines at 2.5% per year. This 14-page note reviews the causes. We find humid climates moderate Potential Induced Degradation, adding a relative headwind in coastal geographies and floating solar. But an exciting way to mitigate declines is emerging via smaller inverters.
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Steel explains almost c10% of global CO2. Hence 2021 has seen the world’s first green steel, made using green hydrogen. Yet inflation worries us. At $7.5/kg H2, green steel would cost 2x conventional steel. In turn, doubling the global steel price would re-inflate green H2 costs. This note explores inflationary feedback loops and other options for steel-makers.
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Global energy investment in 2020-21 has been running 10% below the level needed on our roadmap to net zero. Under-investment is steepest for solar, wind and gas. Under-appreciated is that each $1 dis-invested from fossil fuels must be replaced with $25 in renewables. Future capex needs are vast.
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Nuclear power can backstop much volatility in renewables-heavy grids, for costs of 15-25c/kWh. This is at least 70% less costly than large batteries or green hydrogen, but could see less wind and solar developed overall. Our 13-page note reviews the opportunity.
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This 15-page note explores whether axial flux motors could come to dominate in the future of transportation. They promise 2-3x higher power densities, even versus Tesla’s world-leading PMSRMs; and 10-15x higher than clunky industrial AC induction units; while also surpassing c96% efficiencies.
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CO2 has unusual physical properties, which make small-scale liquefaction and transport much more viable than we had expected. The energy burden is 70% less than other industrial gases. Total CCS costs are $50-90/ton for leading examples. This 15-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Variable frequency drives precisely control motors. Amazingly they could reduce global electricity demand by c10%. We expect a sharp acceleration due to sustained energy shortages, increasingly renewable-heavy grids and excellent 20-50% IRRs. Hence this 14-page note reviews the opportunity and who benefits. 
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This 13-page note quantifies the upside case for CCS in the United States, using top-down and bottom-up calculations. Our conclusion is that a clear, $100/ton incentive could help CCS scale by c25x, accelerating over 500MTpa of projects in the next decade, cutting US CO2 by 10%.
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Insulating materials slow the flow of heat from a warm house by 30-100x. But 60-90% of today’s housing stock is 30-70% under-insulated. We think renovation rates could treble as gas shortages re-prioritize energy savings. This 12-page note screens who benefits.
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CCS is adapting to go to sea. 80% of some ships’ CO2 emissions could be captured for c$100/ton and an energy penalty of just 5%, albeit this is the best case within a broad range. This 15-page note explores the opportunity, challenges, progress and who might benefit.
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This 11-page note considers a new model of carbon neutral investing. Look-through emissions of a portfolio are quantified (Scope 1 & 2 basis). Then an allocation is made to high-quality, nature-based CO2 removals. Advantages and practicalities are exciting.
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This note considers five options to cure emerging gas and power shortages. Unfortunately, the options are mostly absurd. They point to inflation, industrial leakage and slipping global climate goals. But also opportunities in LNG, nuclear and efficiency technologies.
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How do power grids work? How will they be re-shaped by renewables? This 20-page note outlines the underpinnings of electricity markets, from theoretical physics through to looming shortages of inertia and reactive power. There are challenges back-stopping renewables and this creates opportunities.
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Learning curves and cost deflation are widely assumed in new energies but overlooked for nature-based CO2 removals. Support for NBS has already stepped up sharply in 2021. This 15-page note finds the CO2 uptake of well-run reforestation projects could double again.
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This 14-page note lays out a new model to supply fully carbon-neutral energy to a cluster of commercial and industrial consumers, via an integrated package of renewables, low-carbon gas back-ups and nature based carbon removals. This is remarkable for three reasons: low cost, high stability, and full technical readiness.
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Some policymakers now aspire to ban gas boilers and ramp heat pumps 10x by 2050. In theory, the heat pump technology is superior. But in practice, there are ten challenges. It could become a political disaster. The most likely outcome is a 0-2% pullback in European gas by 2030.
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A transformer is needed to step the voltage up or down at every inter-connection point in the grid. Hence this 14-page note explores how renewables and EVs will expand future transformer markets. The main challenge is that the need for smaller, simpler units may exacerbate margin pressure in an already competitive industry. So who is best-placed?
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Energy transition will catapult carbon fiber demand upwards from today's 120kTpa baseline, across wind turbine blades, more efficient vehicles and hydrogen tanks. Hence this 16-page note explores opportunities, economics, CO2 intensity and leading companies. 
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Measuring forest carbon is uncertain. Pessimistically, estimation errors could be as high as 25%. So does this disqualify nature based carbon credits? This 12-page note explores solutions, borrowing risk-pricing from credit markets, preferring bio-diversity and looking to drone/LiDAR technology.
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Some commentators expect the levelized costs of offshore wind to fall another two-thirds by 2050. The justification is some eolian equivalent of Moore’s Law. Our 16-page report draws five contrasts. Wind costs are most likely to move sideways, even as the industry builds larger turbines. Implications are explored for companies.
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Europe has proposed a ‘border adjustment mechanism’ to mitigate carbon leakage. Its initial formulation is modest. But it will snowball. And ultimately divide the global economy in two. This 15-page report lays out our top five predictions for CO2 border taxes to reshape energy markets and the world.
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Lithium demand is likely to rise 30x in the energy transition. So this 15-page note reviews the mined lithium supply chain, finding prices will rise too, by 10-50%. The main reason is lower-grade ores. Second is energy intensity. Low-cost lithium brine producers may benefit from steeper cost curves.
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This 11-page note summarizes the 'top ten' controversies in the energy transition, based on 2,000 pages of our research to-date, and resultant discussions. Our outlook is increasingly despairing. And inflationary. Yet opportunities do exist to unlock value amidst bizarre and market-distorting policies.
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CHP systems are 20-30% lower-carbon than gas turbines, as they capture waste heat. They are also increasingly economical to backstop renewables. Amidst uncertain policies, the market size for US CHPs could vary by a factor of 100x. We nevertheless find 30 companies well-placed in a $9trn global market.
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Ramping renewables to 50% of power grids is a growing aspiration. But in some markets, it may result in devastating blackouts during summer heatwaves, as power demand doubles exactly when wind, solar, gas, transmission losses and disruptions all deteriorate. This 15-page note assesses the implications.
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Methane emissions from landfills account for 2% of global CO2e. c70% of these emissions could easily be abated for c$5/ton, simply by capturing and flaring the methane. Going further, low cost uses of landfill gas in heat and power can also make good sense. But vast subsidies for landfill gas upgrading, RNG vehicles and biogas-to-jet may not be cost-effective.
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Solar costs have deflated by an incredible 90% in the past decade to 4-7c/kWh. Some commentators now hope for 2c/kWh by 2050. Further innovations are doubtless. But there are four challenges, which could stifle future deflation or even re-inflate solar. Most debilitating would be a re-doubling of CO2-intensive PV-silicon?
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Recycling lithium batteries could be worth $100bn per year by 2040 while supporting electric vehicles’ ascent. Hence new companies are emerging to recapture 95% of spent materials with environmentally sound methods. Our 15-page note explores what it would take for battery-recycling to become both practical and compelling.
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New energy policies will exacerbate inflation in the developed world, raising price levels by 20-30%. Or more, due to feedback loops. We find this inflation could also cause new energies costs to rise over time, not fall. As inflation concerns accelerate, policymakers may need to choose between delaying decarbonization or lower-cost transition pathways.
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Electro-fuels are hydrocarbons produced from renewable power, CO2 and water. They are reminiscent of the adage that ‘the fastest way to become a millionaire is to start out as a billionaire then found an airline’. Because all you need for 1boe of these zero-carbon fuels is 2-3 boe of practically free renewable energy.
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Could new technologies reinvigorate corn-based ethanol? This 12-page  note assesses three options. We are constructive on combining CCS or CO2-EOR with an ethanol plant, which yields a carbon-negative fuel. But costs and CO2 credentials look more challenging for bio-plastics or alcohol-to-jet fuels. 
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This 11-page note looks back at 175 patents filed by Theranos, which promised a world-changing medical testing technology, but ultimately turned out to be a fraud. The analysis has helped us create a new framework, which we will be using to assess technologies in the energy transition.
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30M acres of US croplands are used to grow corn for ethanol, with a CO2 abatement cost of $200/ton. However, if these same acres were reforested, they could absorb 2x more CO2, while farmers in the mid-West could have higher earnings. Hence this 15-page note asks could US biofuels be disrupted?
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Reaching ‘net zero’ is impossible without nature based carbon removals. Hence this 17-page note argues corporations will increasingly create internal groups to procure carbon offsets. We give twenty predictions and an analogy from labor reforms in 1850-1950.
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This 15-page report evaluates a pathway for sustainable aviation fuels, feeding biogas into a Fischer-Tropsch reactor. Bio-GTL will likely cost 3x more than conventional jet fuel, for a 75% reduction in CO2, giving an abatement cost of $550/ton. We still prefer nature-based carbon offsets to decarbonize aviation.
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Biochar is a miraculous material, improving soils, enhancing agricultural yields and avoiding 1.4kg of net CO2 emissions per kg of waste biomass. IRRs surpass 20% without CO2 prices or policy support. Hence this 18-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Nature based carbon offsets could migrate offshore in the 2020s, sequestering 3GTpa of CO2 for a price of $20-140/ton. In a more extreme case, if CO2 prices reached $400/ton, oceans could potentially decarbonize the whole world. This 19-page note outlines the opportunity in seaweed and kelp.
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Solid state batteries promise 2x higher energy density than lithium ion, with 3x faster charging and lower risk of fires. They could re-shape global energy, especially heavy trucks. But the industry has been marooned by uncontrollable cell degradation. QuantumScape’s disclosures claim it is light years ahead. But costs may remain high.
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Uranium markets could be 50-75M lbs under-supplied by 2030. This deficit is deeper than other commodities in our roadmap to net zero. Demand is driven by China, constructing reactors for 50-70% less than the West, yielding zero carbon power at 6-8c/kWh. This 18-page note presents the outlook and screens uranium miners.
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We are raising our medium-term oil demand forecasts by 2.5-3.0 Mbpd to reflect the growing reality of autonomous vehicles. AVs improve fuel economy in cars and trucks by 15-35%, and displace 1.2Mbpd of air travel. But their convenience also increases travel. This note outlines the opportunity.
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A vast new up-cycle for LNG is in the offing, to meet energy transition goals, by displacing coal. 2024-25 LNG markets could by 100MTpa under-supplied, taking prices above $9/mcf. But emerging technologies are re-shaping the industry, so well-run greenfields may resist the cost over-runs that marred the last cycle.
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25% of the power grid could realistically become ‘flexible’, shifting its demand across days, even weeks. This is the lowest cost and most thermodynamically efficient route to fit more wind and solar into power grids. We are upgrading our renewables ceilings from 40% to 50%. This 22-page note outlines the opportunity.
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“Electrify everything then decarbonize electricity”. This mantra is dangerously incorrect for industrial heating. It raises output costs by 10-110% without lowering CO2. Our 19-page note presents case studies in the steel, cement, glass, petrochemical and paper industries, which exceed 15% of global CO2.
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Vertical greenhouses achieve 10-400x greater yields per acre than field-growing, stacking layers of plants indoors, and illuminating each layer with LEDs. Economics are exciting. CO2 intensity varies. But it can be carbon-negative if powered by renewables. This 17-page case study outlines the opportunity.
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China now aspires to reach ‘net zero’ CO2 by 2060. But is this compatible with growing an industrial economy and attaining Western living standards? The best middle-ground sees China’s coal phased out and gas rising by a vast 10x to 300bcfd. The biggest challenges are geopolitics and sourcing enough LNG.
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CO2-EOR is the most attractive option for large-scale CO2 disposal. Unlike CCS, which costs over $70/ton, additional oil revenues cover the costs of sequestration. And the resultant oil is 50-100% lower carbon than usual. The technology is mature. Potential exceeds 2GTpa. This 23-page report outlines the opportunity.
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Construction accounts for 10% of global CO2, mainly due to cement and steel. But mass timber could become a dominant new material for the 21st century, lowering emissions 15-80% at no incremental cost. Debatably mass timber is carbon negative if combined with sustainable forestry. We outline the opportunity.
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Methanol is becoming more exciting than hydrogen as a clean fuel to help decarbonize transport. Specifically, blue methanol and bio-methanol are 65-75% less CO2-intensive than oil products, while they already earn 10% IRRs at c$3/gallon prices. Unlike hydrogen, it is simple to transport and integrate methanol with pre-existing vehicles.
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The unmitigated costs of climate change will likely reach $1.5trn per annum after 2050, exerting an enormous toll on the world. However, the costs of the energy transition will exceed $3trn per annum. Our 14-page note explores whether this mismatch matters. Could it even undermine the energy transition?
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This note outlines our top ten themes for 2021. We fear Energy Transition will continue building into an investment bubble. But also appearing on the horizon this year are three triggers to burst the bubble. We continue to prefer non-obvious opportunities in the transition.
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The global energy system can be fully decarbonized by 2050, for an average CO2 cost of $42/ton. Remarkably, this is almost half the cost foreseen one year ago. 85Mbpd of oil and 375TCF pa of gas are still required in this 2050 energy system, together with efficiency technologies, carbon capture and offsets.
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2.3bn hectares of land have been deforested, releasing c25% of all anthropogenic emissions. This 19-page note concludes 1.2bn hectares can be reforested. Consequently, there is room for 85Mbpd of oil and 400TCF of gas in a decarbonized energy system, while half of all ‘new energies’ may not be needed.
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UK wind power has almost trebled since 2016. But its output is volatile, now varying between 0-50% of the total grid. Hence this 14-page note assesses the volatility, using granular, hour-by-hour data from 2020, to outline which backup opportunities are best-placed.
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Drilling wells and lifting fluids to the surface are core skills in oil and gas. Hence could geothermal be a natural fit in the energy transition? Next-generation geothermal economics can be very competitive, both for power and heat. Pilot projects are accelerating. This 17-page note presents the opportunity.
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20% of Europe’s renewable electricity currently comes from biomass, mainly wood pellets, burned in facilities such as Drax’s, 2.6GW Yorkshire plant. But what are the economics and prospects for biomass power as the energy transition evolves? This 18-page analysis leaves us cautious.
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Investment bubbles in history typically take 4-years to build and 2-years to burst, as asset prices rise c815% then collapse by 75%. There is now a frightening resemblance between energy transition technologies and prior investment bubbles. This 19-page note aims to pinpoint the risks and help you defray them.
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For green hydrogen to become competitive, total electrolyser costs must deflate by over 75% from current levels around $1,000/kW. This 14-page note breaks down the numbers and the challenges, based on patents and technical papers. We argue 15-25% total cost deflation may be more realistic if manufacturers also strive to make a margin.
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A lack of gas is likely to slow down Europe’s energy transition in the 2020s. This is the conclusion in our new 12-page note, which captures basic EU policy objectives. An incremental 85MTpa of LNG must be sourced by 2030, absorbing one third of new global LNG supplies and stoking shortages.
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Tree planting charities are emerging as the best means to offset CO2. They will displace other ‘new energies’ from the cost curve. Abatement costs are $3-10/ton. The solution is available today. It also restores nature. This 18-page note presents the advantages, pushbacks, implications, and profiles charities we have supported.
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Our research identifies economic opportunities in the energy transition. To do this, we have now drawn upon 20M patents. This 14-page note illustrates the six ways patent analysis can give decision-makers an edge. Detailed examples are given in renewables, electric vehicles, capital goods, conventional energy and hydrogen.
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Carbon capture is cursed by colossal costs at small scale. But blue hydrogen may be its saviour. Crucial economies of scale are guaranteed by deploying both technologies together. The combination is a dream scenario for gas producers. This 22-page note outlines the opportunity and costs.
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Overbuilding renewables makes power grids more expensive and less reliable. Hence more businesses may generate their own power behind the meter, installing combined heat and power systems fuelled by natural gas. IRRs reach 20-30%. Efficiency is 70-80%. Total CO2 falls by 6-30%. This 17-page note outlines the opportunity.
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1% of global CO2 comes from distilling crude oil at refineries. An alternative uses precisely engineered polymer membranes to separate crude fractions, eliminating 50-80% of the costs and 97% of the CO2. We reviewed 1,000 patents, including a major breakthrough in 2020. This 14-page note presents the opportunity.
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Whale oil was a dominant, albeit barbaric, lighting fuel in the 19th century. But what happened to pricing as the industry was disrupted by kerosene and ultimately by electric lighting? We find whale oil pricing outperformed and whaling by-products rallied very sharply as the industry declined. Implications are drawn for oil and gas.
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Energy policies currently act as kingmakers for a select few transition technologies. But they offer no incentives for other, lower cost and more practical alternatives, which could economically decarbonize the whole world by 2050. Hence this 14-page note presents the top five arguments for a simple, transparent, economy-wide CO2 price. We also illustrate who would benefit versus which bubbles may burst.
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US shale productivity can still rise at a 5% CAGR to 2025, based on evaluating 300 technical papers from 2020. The latest improvements are discussed in this 12-page note. Thus unconventionals could quench deeply under-supplied oil markets by 2025. Leading technologies are also becoming concentrated in the hands of fewer operators.
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It takes 15-100 years for a major new technology to ramp from 10% to 90% of its peak adoption rate. But what determines the pace? This 15-page note finds answers by evaluating 20 examples that changed the world from 1870 to 2020. We derive four rules of thumb, in order to quantify the pace at which different energy transition technologies will scale up.
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Phase change materials could be a game-changer for energy storage. They can earn double digit IRRs unlocking c20% efficiency gains in freezers and refrigerators, which make up 9% of US electricity. This is superior to batteries which add costs and incur 8-30% efficiency losses. We review 5,800 patents and identify leading companies.
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Transporting hydrogen will be more challenging than any other energy commodity ever commercialised. This 19-page note reviews the costs and complexities of cryogenic trucks, pipelines and chemical carriers (e.g., ammonia). Midstream costs will be 2-10x higher than natural gas, while up to 50% of hydrogen’s embedded energy may be lost in transit.
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Oil markets look primed for a new up-cycle by 2022, which could culminate in Brent surpassing $80/bbl. This is sufficient to unlock 20% IRRs on the next generation of offshore projects, and thus excite another cycle of offshore exploration and development. We address potential pushbacks to the thesis and outlines who benefits.
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We have modelled full-cycle economics of a green hydrogen value chain to decarbonize trucks. In Europe, at $6/gallon diesel, hydrogen trucks will be 30% more expensive in the 2020s. They could be cost-competitive by the 2040s. But the numbers are generous and logistical challenges remain. Niche adoption is more likely than a wholesale shift.
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Is there potential to afforest any of the world’s 11bn acres of arid and semi-arid lands, by desalinating and distributing seawater? Energy economics do not work in the most extreme deserts (e.g., the Sahara). Buy $60-120/ton CO2 prices may suffice in semi-arid climates. The best economics of all use waste water from oil and gas, such as in the Permian basin.
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We model the green hydrogen value chain: harnessing renewable energy, electrolysing water, storing the hydrogen, then generating usable power in a fuel cell. Today’s costs are very high, at 64c/kWh. Even by 2050, our best case scenario is 14c/kWh, which elevates household electricity bills by $440-990/year compared with decarbonizing natural gas.
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Supercapacitors may eclipse lithium ion batteries in the hybridization of transport and industry. Their energy density is improving. Potential CO2 savings could surpass 1bn tons per year. IRRs of 10-50% can be achieved. This 20-page note presents are our conclusions after reviewing 2,000 Western patents, and identifies leading companies.
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Additive manufacturing (AM) can eliminate 6% of global CO2, across manufacturing, transport, heat and supply chains. This 21-page note quantifies each opportunity and reviews 5,500 patents to identify who benefits, among Capital Goods companies, AM Specialists and the Materials sector.
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A CO2 price of $40-80/ton could double the pace of industrial efficiency gains in the oil and gas sector, eliminating 15-20% of its CO2 emissions, as outlined in this 14-page note. Cost-curves would steepen in E&P and refining. Technology leaders benefit. Spending would also accelerate, particularly for heat exchangers, compressors, digitization and electrification projects.
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Attaining ‘Net Zero’ can uplift an Energy Major’s valuation by c50%. This means emitting no net CO2, either from the company’s operations or from the use of its products. This 19-page report shows how a Major can best achieve ‘net zero’ by exhibiting four cardinal virtues. Decarbonization is not a threat but an opportunity.
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Fuel retailers have a game-changing opportunity seeding new forests, ourlined in our 26-page note. They could offset c15bn tons of CO2 per year at a competitive cost, well below c$50/ton. We 15-25% uplifts in the value of fuel retail stations, allaying fears over CO2, and benefitting as road fuel demand surges after COVID.
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Another impact of COVID-19 may still lie ahead: a 1-2Mbpd upwards jolt in global oil demand. This 17-page note upgrades our 2022-30 oil demand forecasts by 1-2Mbpd above our pre-COVID forecasts. The increase is from road fuels, reflecting lower mass transit, lower load factors and resultant traffic congestion.
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Natural gas fuels two-thirds of residential and commercial heating, which in turn comprises c10% of global CO2. We assessed ten technologies to decarbonize heat, including heat pumps, renewables, biogas and hydrogen. The lowest cost solution is to double down on natural gas with nature-based carbon offsets.
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The global bioethanol industry could be disrupted by a carbon price. Somewhere between $15-50/ton, it becomes more economical to bury the biofuel crop, rather than convert it into biofuels. This would remove 8x more CO2 per acre, at a lower total cost. Ethanol mills and blenders would be displaced.
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Conservation agriculture builds up carbon in soil. It can sequester 3-15 bn tons of CO2 per year, generating carbon credits, while restoring loss-making farmlands to exceptional profitability. Fertilizer demand would be decimated. This 17-page report outlines the opportunity, costs, CO2-removal, winners and losers.
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$30/bbl oil prices stall the energy transition. They kill the relative economics of electric vehicles, renewables, industrial efficiency, flaring reductions, CO2 sequestration and new energy R&D. This 15-page note finds $60/bbl oil is ‘best’ for decarbonization. Policymakers should target $60 oil.
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This 14-page report assesses 6,000 patents from 2018-19, to determine which Energy Majors are best-placed to weather the downturn, benefit from dislocation and thrive in the recovery. We find clear leaders in onshore, offshore, shale, LNG and digital. Other Majors may be pulling back from upstream oil and gas.
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Digitization improves economics and CO2 credentials. But now it will structurally accelerate due to higher resiliency: Just 8% of digitized industrial processes will be disrupted due to COVID-19, compared to 80% of non-digitized processes. This 22-page report outlines the theme and who will benefit.
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The COVID-19 crisis will structurally accelerate remote working. The opportunity can save 30% of commuter journeys by 2030, avoiding 1bn tons of CO2 per year, for a net economic benefit of $5-16k per employee. This makes remote work materially more impactful than electric vehicles, as an opportunity in the energy transition.
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This 15-page note outlines our top three conclusions about COVID-19, which the oil markets may have missed. Global oil demand could decline by -11.5Mbpd YoY in 2Q20. But gasoline demand could increase in the aftermath of the crisis. Finally, longer-term, structural changes will transform commuting, retail and travel.
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Gas value chains present the largest and lowest cost decarbonization opportunity on the planet, commercialising zero carbon energy for an incremental cost below $1/mcfe ($17/ton of CO2). This 15-page report outlines how to optimize a decarbonized gas value chain, securitizing forestry-based carbon commitments in an actively managed carbon fund.
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Offshore developments will change dramatically in the 2020s, eliminating production platforms in favour of fully subsea solutions. The opportunity increases a project’s NPV by 50% and effectively eliminates upstream CO2. We reviewed 1,850 patents to find the best-placed operators and services. Others will be disrupted. The theme supports the ascent of low-carbon natural gas.
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What is the optimal mix of wind and solar in a low-cost, zero-carbon power grid? We find renewables cannot surpass 45-50% due to curtailment, which trebles prices. Batteries help little, under grid conditions. Decarbonized gas is the best backstop. A grid of 50% decarbonized gas, 25% renewables and 25% nuclear has the lowest incentive price, at 9c/kWh.
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It is widely believed that electric vehicles will destroy fossil fuel demand. We find they will increase it by 0.7Mboed from 2020-35. The reason is that 3.7x more energy is consumed to manufacture each EV than the net road fuel it displaces each year; while manufacturing of EVs is seen growing exponentially. The finding is a strong positive for natural gas, as outlined in our new 13-page note.
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Molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFCs) could be a game-changer for CCS and fossil fuels. They capture CO2 from combustion facilities; while at the same time, generating electricity from natural gas. The first pilot plant is being tested in 1Q20, by ExxonMobil and FuelCell Energy. Economics range from passable to phenomenal.
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Shell is revolutionizing LNG project design, based on reviewing 40 of the company’s gas-focused patents from 2019. The innovations can lower LNG facilities’ capex by 70% and opex by 50%; conferring a $4bn NPV and 4% IRR advantage over industry standard greenfields. Our 16-page note reviews Shell’s operational improvements, revolutionary greenfield concepts, and their economic consequences.
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Energy transition is maturing as an investment theme. ‘Obvious’ portfolio tilts are beginning to look over-crowded. Non-obvious ones are over-looked. This 26-page note outlines the 'top ten' opportunities that excite us most in 2020, among commodities, drivers of the energy transition, evolving market perceptions and forward-thinking corporate strategies.
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Scaling up natural gas is among the largest decarbonisation opportunities. But this requires minimising methane leaks. Exciting new technologies are emerging. This 28-page note ranks producers, positions for new policies and advocates developing more LNG. To seize the opportunity, we also identify 35 companies geared to the theme. Global gas demand will not be derailed by methane leaks.
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Shale growth has been slowing due to fears over the energy transition, as Permian upstream CO2 emissions reached a new high in 2019. We disaggregate the CO2 across 14 causes. It could be eliminated by improved technologies, making Permian production carbon neutral: uplifting NPVs by c$4-7/boe, re-attracting a vast wave of capital and growth. This note identifies the best opportunities.
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It is often said that Oil Majors should become Energy Majors by transitioning to renewables. But what is the best balance based on portfolio theory? We constructed a mean-variance optimisation model and find a c5-13% weighting to renewables best increases risk-adjusted returns. Beyond 35%, returns decline rapidly.
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Refining has the highest carbon footprint in global energy. Next-generation catalysts are the best opportunity for improvement: uniquely, they could cut refineries' CO2 by 15-30%, while also uplifting margins, which get obliterated by other decarbonisation approaches. Catalyst science is undergoing a digitally driven transformation. Hence this 25-page note outlines a new ESG opportunity around refining catalyst technologies. Industry leaders are also identified.
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Prioritising low carbon barrels will matter increasingly to investors, as they can reduce total oil industry CO2 by 25%. Hence, these barrels should attract lower WACCs, whereas fears over the energy transition are elevating hurdle rates elsewhere and denting valuations. In Guyana’s case, the upshot could add $8-15bn of NAV, with a total CO2 intensity that could be c50% below the industry average.
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What is the best way for investors to decarbonise the global energy system? Our new, 18-page report argues this outcome is achievable by 2050, but a new ‘venturing’ model is needed, to incubate better technologies. CO2 budgets can also be stretched furthest by re-allocating to gas, lower-carbon oil and lower-carbon industry. The biggest risk is "divestment", a grave mistake that makes decarbonisation near-impossible.
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Autonomous, electric delivery vehicles are emerging. They are game-changers: rapidly delivering online purchases to customers, creating vast new economic possibilities, but also driving the energy transition. They could eliminate 500MTpa of CO2, 3.5Mboed of fossil fuels and c$3trn pa of consumer spending across the OECD. The mechanism is a re-shaping of urban consumption habits, retail and manufacturing.
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Our new, 20-page note reviews seven technology themes that can eliminate 45Mbpd of long-term oil demand by 2050. We therefore find oil demand would plateau at 103Mbpd in the early-2020s, before declining gradually. Opportunities greatly outnumber risks for leading companies amidst this transition.
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Technology leadership is crucial in energy. It drives costs, returns and future resiliency. Hence, we have reviewed 3,000 recent patent filings, across the 25 largest energy companies. Our 34-page report outlines the "Top 10 Technology Leaders" in energy, ranging across each sub-sector.
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2019 has evoked resource fears in the shale industry. They are unfounded. Weak headline productivity is the benign result of changing completion designs. We review 350 technical papers from the shale industry in summer-2019 to rule out systemic issues. Underlying productivity continues improving at an exciting pace.
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The super-giant Mero field in pre-salt Brazil is not like its predecessors. It has a 2x higher gas cut, of which c45% is CO2. Handling the CO2 is critical. Hence, Petrobras, Shell, TOTAL and partners are pushing the boundaries of deepwater technology. We review four innovations, which can sway the field's value by $6bn.
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Equinor is deploying three world-class technologies to mitigate Johan Sverdrup’s decline rates, based on reviewing c115 of the company’s patents and dozens of technical papers. Our 15-page note outlines how its efforts may unlock an incremental $3-5bn of value, as production surprises to the upside.
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E-scooters can transform urban mobility, eliminating 2Mbpd of oil demand by 2030, competing amidst the ascent of “electric vehicles” and re-shaping urban economies. These implications follow from e-scooters having 25-50x higher energy efficiencies, higher convenience and c50% lower costs than gasoline vehicles, over short 1-2 mile journeys. Our 12-page note explores the consequences.
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Decarbonisation is often taken to mean the end of fossil fuels. It is more feasible simply to de-carbonise them, with next-generation combustion technologies. This 19-page note explores our top two opportunities: ‘Oxy-Combustion’ using the Allam Cycle and Chemical Looping Combustion. This means zero carbon coal & gas at competitive economics. Leading Oil Majors are supporting both.
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Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) uses fiber-optic cables to "hear" along a shale well, meter-by-meter, in real time. It is transformational for optimising completions and now gaining critical momentum. Our new note outlines the technology, its maturation and how it can help double shale productivity. Economics work at $15/bbl. The service industry is disrupted. Leading companies in the space are screened.
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Aerial vehicles will do in the 2020s what electric vehicles did in the 2010s: going from a niche technology to a global mega-trend that no forecaster can ignore, improving mobility by 100x. The technology is advancing rapidly. Fuel economies and costs are transformational. Aerial vehicles accelerate the energy transition.
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There is only one way to decarbonise the energy system: leading companies must find economic opportunities in better technologies. No other route can source sufficient capital to re-shape the industry. We outline seven game-changing opportunities. Remarkably, leading energy Majors are already pursuing them.
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Will Shale-EOR add another leg of unconventional upside? The topic jumped into the ‘Top 10’ most researched shale themes last year, hence we have reviewed the opportunity in depth. Stranded in-basin gas will improve the economics to c20% IRRs (at $50 oil). Production per well can rise by 1.5-2x. The theme could add 2.5Mbpd to YE25 output.
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Next-generation technology in small-scale LNG has potential to reshape the global shipping-fuels industry. Especially after IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, LNG should compete with diesel. Opportunities in trucking and shale are less clear-cut.
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We model our 'top twenty' technology opportunities for offshore oil. These can double deep-water NPVs and improve IRRs 4-5%. To re-excite investment, it is crucial to harness the best technologies.
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Due to the limitations of mechanical recycling, 85% of the world’s plastic is incinerated, dumped into landfill, or worst of all, ends up in the oceans. An alternative, plastic pyrolysis, is on the cusp of commercialisation. We have assessed twenty technology solutions. Excitingly, this nascent opportunity can turn plastic back into oil, generate >30% IRRs on investment, and could displace 15Mbpd of future oil demand.
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Shale is a 'tech' industry. The technology keeps improving at an incredible pace. But Permian technology is improving fastest, extending its lead over other basins. There are our conclusions from assessing 300 technical papers across the shale industry in 2018.
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Energy transition is underway. Or more specifically, five energy transitions are underway at the same time. They include the rise of renewables, shale oil, digital technologies, environmental improvements and new forms of energy demand. This is our rationale for establishing a new research consultancy, Thunder Said Energy, at the nexus of energy-technology and energy-economics.
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Fears over the energy transition are now restricting investment in fossil fuels, based on our new paper, published in conjunction with the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
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In 2018, we reviewed 250-years of energy transitions, arguing that another great energy transition is now on hand. It will take a century. We must also improve conventional energy.
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This video covers our top five reflections after 3.5 years, running a research firm focused on energy transition. The greatest value is found in low-cost decarbonization technologies, resource bottlenecks and hidden nuances and bottom-up opportunities.
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Chinese coal provides 15% of the world’s energy, equivalent to 4 Saudi Arabia's worth of oil. Global energy markets may become 10% under-supplied if this output plateaus per our ‘net zero’ scenario. Alternatively, might China ramp its coal, especially as Europe bids harder for renewables and LNG post-Russia? This note presents our ‘top ten’ charts.
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Who will ‘win’ the intensifying competition for finite lithium ion batteries, in a world that is hindered by a shortages of lithium, graphite, nickel and cobalt in 2022-25? Today’s note argues EVs should outcompete grid-scale storage by a factor of 2-4x.
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Energy shortages are gripping the world in 2022. The 1970s are one analogy. But the 14th century was truly medieval. Today’s note reviews its top ten features. This is not a romantic portrayal of pre-industrial civilization, some simpler time “before fossil fuels”. It is a horror show of deficiencies. Avoiding energy shortages should be a core ESG goal.
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Helion is developing a linear fusion reactor, which has entirely re-thought the technology (like the 'Tesla of nuclear fusion'). It could have costs of 1-6c/kWh, be deployed at 50-200MWe modular scale and overcome many challenges of tokamaks. Progress so far includes 100MºC and a $2.2bn fund-raise, the largest of any private fusion company to-date. This note sets out its 'top ten' features.
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The second world war was decided by oil. Each country's war-time strategy was dictated by its availability, quality and attempts to secure more of it, including by rationing non-critical uses of it. Ultimately, halting the oil meant halting the war. Today's short note outlines out top ten conclusions from reviewing the history.
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This 13-page note presents 10 hypotheses on Russia's horrific conflict. Energy supplies will very likely get disrupted, as Putin no longer needs to break the will of Ukraine, but also the West. Results include energy rationing and economic pain. Climate goals get shelved in this war-time scramble. Pragmatism, nuclear and LNG emerge from the ashes. 
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This gloomy video explores growing fears that the energy transition could 'fall apart' in the mid-late 2020s, due to energy shortages and geopolitical discord. Constructive solutions will include debottlenecking resource-bottlenecks, efficiency technologies and natural gas pragmatism.
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Sitka spruce is a fast-growing conifer, which now dominates UK forestry, and sequesters net CO2 up to 2x faster than mixed broadleaves. It can absorb 6-10 tons of CO2 per acre per year, at Yield Classes 16-30+, on 40 year rotations. This short note lays out our top ten conclusions, including benefits, drawbacks and implications.
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Coal and gas both provide c25% of all primary global energy. But gas's CO2 intensity is 50-60% less than coal's. This short note explains the different carbon intensities from first principles, including bond enthalpies, production processes and efficiency factors.
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"If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, first you must invent the universe". This captures the challenge of decarbonizing complex global supply chains. This note argues for each company in a supply chain to drive its own Scope 1&2 CO2 emissions towards zero on a net basis. Resulting products can be described as "clear", "transparent" or "translucent".
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Energy transition is like a game of chess: impossible to get right, unless you are looking at the entire board. Rigid coverage models do not work. This video explores the emergence of energy strategist roles at firms that care about energy transition, and how to become a 'grand master' in 2022.
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Decision-makers are possibly over-indexing their attention on game-changing new technologies, at the expense of over-looking pre-existing ones. Hence the purpose of this short note will be to re-cap our 'top ten' most overlooked, established technologies that can cost-effectively help the world reach net zero.
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This short note is a progress update, including videos and drone footage, on our aspirations to undertake a series of reforestation projects in Estonia. It covers considerations for selecting land; and our first small investment to plant spruce in 2022.
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For the first time, in November-2021, a moderate-sized company has gone public with a mandate to generate CPI + 5% returns, by investing in forestry and nature-based afforestation projects. This short article summarizes the key points from the 216-page prospectus.
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Neodymium is a crucial Rare Earth metal, used in permanent magnets for the ramp-up of wind turbines and electric vehicles. The market is small, but fast-growing. This could create opportunities, as bottlenecks and cost-inflation need to be kept in check. Hence this short note outlines our 'top ten facts'.
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This note evaluates how sustained gas shortages could re-shape power markets (chart above). Nuclear is the greatest beneficiary, as its cost premium narrows. The balance also includes more renewables, batteries and power-electronics; and less gas, until gas prices normalized. Self-defeatingly, we would also expect less short-term decarbonization via coal-to-gas switching.
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After six months living in Tallinn, Estonia, the history of the Baltic States has been swirling around in my mind. Especially a list of old jokes, told during Soviet times, about persistent industrial shortages, propaganda, the suppression of dissent and the ridiculousness of planned economies. This video explores whether there is any overlap with energy transition policies.
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SF6 is an unparalleled dielectric material, used to quench electric arcs in medium- and high-voltage switchgear. There is only one problem. It is the most potent GHG in the world. Therefore, it may be helpful to find replacements for SF6, amidst the ascent of renewables and electrification. This note discusses resultant opportunities in capital goods and some minor cost inflation consequences.
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UK power price volatility has exploded in 2021. The average daily range has risen 4x from 2019-20, to 35c/kWh in 3Q21. At this level, grid-scale batteries are strongly ‘in the money’. So will the high volatility persist? This is the question in today's 6-page note.
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Political divisions may explain some recent mysteries around the energy transition, and be larger than we had previously imagined. This note explores lobbying data and concludes there is more need for objective and apolitical analysis.
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Feeding the world explains 20% of global CO2e emissions, across 12bn acres of land, whose reforestation could theoretically decarbonize the entire planet. Kilo for kilo, many meat products have 1-10x more embedded CO2 emissions than fossil fuels. This short article is to present our top ten conclusions.
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Phasing out gas is likely to be a policy choice made by some cities or States, as part of the energy transition. The purpose of this short note is simply to examine possible consequences. Which could be stark.
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This 12-page note sets out an early-stage ambition for Thunder Said Energy to reforest former farmland in Estonia, producing high-quality CO2 credits in a biodiverse forest. The primary purpose would be to stress-test nature-based carbon removals in our roadmap to net zero, and understand the bottlenecks.
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This short video is a thinly-veiled critique of carbon markets. To do this, we use an analogy from the banking sector, followed by some observations on carbon prices and carbon offsets.
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A single Bitcoin transaction currently uses c1,000kWh of electricity, 1 million times more than a traditional payment. Hence this note aims to explain how blockchain works, why it has been so energy intensive in the past, and how the energy multiplier could be reduced to maybe 100 - 1,000x.
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Moore’s law entails that computing performance doubles every 18-months. Which has held true since 1965. This exponential progress has been driven by three positive feedback loops. Can these same feedback loops unlock a similar trajectory for new energies costs? We find mixed evidence.
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This video contains my top five conclusions from some eye-opening real world experiences. Specifically, for the better part of the past six months, my wife and I have been working 'nomadically'. I made it to 44 US States in total. This has changed my views on transition costs, mobility and nature.
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CO2 prices and CO2 abatement costs are very different numbers. The CO2 prices are incurred by remaining emitters. But the abatement costs depend on how much CO2 is reduced. These abatement costs can actually be astronomical if CO2 does not fall much. We argue CO2 prices are only effective if nature-based offsets are incorporated.
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We have reviewed 14 mass extinctions over the past 500M years. This short note contains our top five solutions. Current policies may be short-sighted around systemic risks. Improved technologies and nature-based solutions fare better.
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We are starting a new strand of research, evaluating the specific energy technologies of specific early-stage companies, to help drive the energy transition. This video lays out our rationale, and our methodology, which draws on two years of patent learnings.
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Global CO2 from wildfires could be c25% as large as anthropogenic CO2, while US wildfires reached an all-time record in 2020. Hence this note reconsiders nature-based solutions. Hands-off conservation may do more harm than good. Sustainable forestry, carbon-negative materials, biochar and biomass energy also look more favorable.
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Industrial facilities that can shift electricity demand to coincide with cheap renewables can effectively start printing money as renewables get over-built. Oil and gas assets are generally less able to demand-shift than other industries. But this note outlines the best opportunities, capable of uplifting cash margins by 3-10%.
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Current carbon accounting frameworks are not entirely helpful: simplistic rules can lack comparability, completeness, generality, and can be gamed. We prefer granular carbon accounting at the process- or asset-level, which can be compared to competitors and counterfactuals.
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Carbon-negative construction materials derived from wood could be used to deflate the levellized costs of a wind turbine by 2.5 - 10%, while sequestering around 175 tons of CO2-equivalents per turbine. The opportunity is being progressed by Modvion and Vestas, as discussed in this short note below.
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An acre of land can absorb 40-800 tons of CO2 over the course of a century. Today's note ranks different options for CO2 sequestration over 100-year timeframes. Active management techniques and blue carbon eco-systems are most effective.
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Renewable Energy Certificates are legal contracts where all parties agree to pretend that gas and coal electrons are wind and solar electrons and vice versa. This note discussed the merits, drawbacks, and some strange implications for energy analysts. Our view is that nature-based carbon credits may come to be seen as 'more valid'.
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The laws of thermodynamics are often framed in such arcane terms that they are overlooked. This note outlines these three fundamental laws of physics and why they matter for energy transition. Renewables and efficiency gains are prioritized, while hydrogen scores poorly.
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“As a no till farmer, I’m doing my part [on climate change... if the carbon market grows] farmers will change their practices”. These were the comments of an Iowa farmer that has now commercialized $330,000 of carbon credits from conservation agriculture. The case study shows how the carbon market is causing CO2-farming to expand and advance.
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Industrial energy efficiency is an overwhelmingly complex concept. Hence economy-wide CO2 prices may be the most effective way to maximize efficiency gains. This note illustrates the argument, in the context of 'home cooking' a process technology with which most readers are likely familiar.
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Global average surface temperatures have risen by 1.2-1.3C since pre-industrial times and continue rising at 0.02-0.03C per year, according to most data-sets . This note assesses their methodologies and controversies. Uncertainty in the data is likely higher than admitted. But the strong upward warming trend is robust.
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Britain's remarkable industrialization in the 18th and 19th centuries was part of the world's first great energy transition. In this short note, we have aggregated data, estimated the end uses of different energy sources in the Industrial Revolution, and drawn five key conclusions for the current Energy Transition.
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It is fully possible to reach 'net zero' by 2050. The costs ratchet up to $3trn per year. Paradoxically, this is 2x higher than the unmitigated cost of climate change. This note outlines different decision-makers perspectives on resolving the paradox.
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We have published 250 new research notes and data-files on our website in 2020. The purpose of this review is to highlight the 'top ten' reports, summarizing all of our work, and drawing out the best opportunities.
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This note presents the exciting new prospect of using 'wet sand' for hydraulic fracturing in shale plays. This can reduce breakeven costs up to $1/bbl and CO2 intensity up to 0.6kg/bbl.
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Our roadmap towards 'net zero' requires 20-30GTpa of carbon offsets using nature based solutions, including reforestation and soil carbon. This short note considers whether the task could be facilitated by bio-engineering plants to sequester more CO2. We find exciting ambitions, and promising pilots, but the space is not yet investable.
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Another 2-10% deforestation could make the Amazon rainforest too dry to sustain itself. 80GT of Carbon could thus be released, inflating atmospheric CO2 above 450ppm. This matters as Amazon deforestation rates have already doubled under Jair Bolsonaro's presidency. We explore policy implications.
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Unprecedented high-grading is now occurring in the US shale industry, amidst challenging industry conditions. This means production surprising to the upside in 2020-21 and disappointing during the recovery. Our 7-page note explores the causes and consequences of the whipsaw effect.
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Joe Biden's presidency will prioritize energy transition among its top four focus areas. Thus we present our top ten pieces of research that gain increasing importance as the new landscape unfolds. We are cautious on bubbles and supply shortages. But decision-makers will become more discerning around CO2.
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The 'Empress Tree' has been highlighted as a miracle solution to climate change, with potential to absorb 10x more CO2 than other tree species; while its strong, light-weight timber is prized as the "aluminium of woods". This note investigates the potential. There is clear room to optimise nature based solutions. But there may be downside risks for the Empress.
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Enhancing CO2 in greenhouses can improve yields by c30%. It costs $4-60/ton to supply this CO2, while $100-500/ton of value is unlocked. The challenge is scale, limited to 50MTpa globally. Around 50Tpa of CO2 is supplied to each acre of greenhouses. But only c10% is sequestered.
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Global mean sea levels will rise materially by 2100, irrespective of future emissions pathways. This note contains our top ten facts for decision makers, covering the numbers, the negative consequences and the potential mitigation opportunities.
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This presentation covers our outlook for the US shale industry in the 2020s, and was presented at a recent investor conference. It covers the importance of shale oil supplies in balancing future oil markets, our outlook for 5% annual productivity growth, and the opportunity for carbon-neutrality to attract capital.
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China’s pace of technology development is now 6x faster than the US, as measured across 40M patent filings, contrasted back to 1920 in this short, 7-page note. The implications are frightening. Questions are raised over the Western world’s long-term competitiveness, especially in manufacturing; and the consequences of decarbonization policies that hurt competitiveness.
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We have looked extensively for economic hydrogen opportunities to advance the energy transition. Pessimistically stated, we fear that the 'green hydrogen economy' may fail to be green, fail to deliver hydrogen, and fail to be economical. This short note summarizes our work.
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Nature based solutions to climate change could extend beyond the world's land (37bn acres) and into the world's oceans (85 bn acres). This short article explores one option, ocean iron fertilization, based on technical papers. While the best studies indicate a vast opportunity, uncertainty remains high: on CO2 absorption, sequestration, scale, cost and side-effects. Unhelpfully, research has stalled due to legal opposition.
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A new record has been published in 2020, achieving 47.1% conversion efficiency in a solar cell, using "a monolithic, series-connected, six-junction inverted metamorphic structure under 143 suns concentration". Our goal in this note is to explain the achievement and its implications.
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Below is an overview of our written research into energy technologies and the energy transition, to help you navigate our work, by topic. The summary below captures 1,000 pages of output, across 50 research notes and 40 online articles since April-2019. Energy Transition Technologies The most economic route to ‘net zero’ is to ramp renewables … Continue reading "Energy Technologies and Energy Transition"
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A typical Oil Major can uplift its valuation by 50% through targeting net zero. But how much will it cost? We find 7.5-15% higher total costs are incurred in the next decade. But this investment is justified: a $50/ton CO2 price would otherwise have inflated costs by 17%.
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This short note describes a potential, albeit early-stage, breakthrough converting waste CO2 into polyethylene, based on a recent TOTAL patent. We estimate the process could sequester 0.8T of net CO2 per ton of polyethylene. This matters as the world consumes c140MTpa of PE, 30% of the global plastics market, whose cracking and polymerisation emits 1.6T of CO2 per ton of polyethylene.
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This 3-page note captures over 250,000 patents (ex-China) to assess the pace of progress in different energy transition technologies, yielding insights into batteries (high activity), autonomous vehicles and additive manufacturing (fastest acceleration), wind and solar (maturing), fuel cells and biofuels (waning) and other technologies.
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Nature based solutions to climate change are among the largest and lowest cost opportunities to decarbonize the global energy system. Looking across 1,000 pages of research and over 200 data files, this short note summarizes our findings.
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It is no longer possible to compete in the US shale industry without leading digital technologies. This 10-page note outlines best practices, based on 500 patents and 650 technical papers. Chevron, Conoco and ExxonMobil lead our screens. Disconcertingly absent from the leader-board is EOG, whose edge may have been eclipsed.
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There is now a potential 100MTpa shortfall in 2024-26 LNG markets. The current COVID-crisis will likely cause a further 15-45MTpa of supply-disruptions (delays in 2022-24, deferrals in 2024-7). This 6-page note draws out our top insights from looking line-by-line through 120 LNG projects.
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Remote working, digital de-manning, drones and robotics -- all of these themes will structurally accelerate in the aftermath of the COVID crisis. This short note considers the safety consequences. They are as significant as COVID itself.
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The opportunity is emerging to absorb mixed plastic waste, displacing bitumen from road asphalts. We find strong economics, with net margins of $200/ton of plastic, deflating the materials costs of roads by c4%. The challenge is scaling the opportunity. Leading companies and projects are profiled in our 6-page note.
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This short note profiles Qnergy, the leading manufacturer of Stirling-design engines, which generate 1-10 kW of power, in remote areas, where a grid connection is not available. The units are particularly economical for mitigating methane emissions, with a potential abatement cost of $20/ton.
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Some commentators criticize that methane leaks detract from natural gas as a low-carbon fuel in the energy transition. Leaking 2.7-3.5% of natural gas could make gas "dirtier than coal". However, when considered apples-to-apples, we find natural gas value chains leak 30% less methane than oil and 70% less methane than underground coal mining. This note explains the data.
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Forestry projects can sequester 15bn tons of CO2 per annum, helping to accommodate 400TCF of gas per year and 85Mbpd per oil in a fully decarbonized energy system by 2050. Economics are competitive. But what happens when the forests are cut down? This short note addresses the pushback.
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Our research focuses on technologies that can deliver an energy transition. But it is always important to stress-test your premises, and consider what new evidence could unseat them. Hence this note looks at the sun, the largest uncertainty in climate modelling, and how new data from new satellites could shift scientific and market sentiment.
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In 2019, TOTAL co-filed two patents with an airship-technology company, Flying Whales, aiming to lower the logistical costs of moving equipment into remote areas. Strong applications are seen in the wind industry. This short note assesses the opportunity, and whether these new airships could displace trucks, or lower diesel demand.
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SuperMajors’ shale developments are assumed to differ from E&Ps’ mainly in their scale and access to capital. Superior technologies are rarely discussed. But new evidence is emerging. This 11-page note assesses 40 of Chevron’s shale patents from 2019, showing a vast array of data-driven technologies, to optimize every aspect of shale.
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It is important for us to practice what we preach. Hence in 2019, we reduced our CO2 by 78% compared with a typical research/consulting firm, and purchased CO2-offsets for the remaining 5.6 tons (chart above). This 9-page note contains granular data on professional service firms’ emissions and opportunities to reduce them.
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Equinor has patented a machine learning method to optimise offshore wind farms using satellite imagery or pictures from drones. We estimate a 0.5% IRR uplift on offshore wind projects. As Oil Majors move into renewables, it is important to be leaders not followers.
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Investors may suffer if they do not consider the energy transition. But they may suffer much more if they consider it, and get the answer wrong. The best way to drive the energy transition will be to maximise carbon-adjusted investment returns.
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Last year, we appeared on RealVision, advocating economic opportunities that can decarbonize the energy system. The "comments" surprised us, suggesting the topic of energy transition is extremely polarized. Historically, such ideological polarization has not ended well. This re-affirms the need for energy technologies.
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EOG patented a new digital technology in 2019: a load assembly which can be built into its rod pumps: to raise efficiency, lower costs and lower energy consumption. This 8-page note reviews the patent, illustrating how EOG is working to further digitize its processes, maximise productivity and minimise CO2 intensity.
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Satellite analysis is gaining momentum, and features in three of our recent research reports. A step-change in resolution is helping to mitigate methane. It is possible to track Permian completions from space. We also suspect renewable growth may slow. More satellite images should reshape commercial research as costs deflate.
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The growth of renewables has been revolutionary, with wind and solar emerging towards the bottom of the global cost curve, scaling up at c300TWH pa. However, the market could slow in the 2020s, with curtailment stepping up in heartland geographies such as California, Germany and the UK.
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This short note outlines our top conclusions about the energy consumption of the internet, which now comprises c2% of global electricity and 0.7% of global CO2. In the next decade, remarkably, we find the CO2 footprint of powering the internet could surpass that of producing oil or gas.
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CO2-labelling is the most important policy to accelerate the energy transition: making products' CO2-intensities visible, so they can sway purchasing decisions. Expect 4-8% savings across global energy, which will lower the net costs of decarbonisation by $200-400bn pa. Digital technologies also support wider eco-labelling compared. Leading companies are preparing their businesses.
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The key challenge for the US shale industry is to continue improving productivity per well. The process is increasingly being driven by Oil Majors and using data. This is illustrated by BP's latest fracturing fluid patents, which optimise successive diverter compositions to create dendritic fracture geometries, to enhance stimulated rock volumes.
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Precision-engineered proteins are on the cusp of disrupting the agriculture industry. The science is improving rapidly, to create meat-substitutes with vastly superior nutrition, taste and costs. We explore the energy consequences of "replacing cows", with potential for 2bcfd upside to US gas demand, to offset the CO2 of all US oil demand, increase US biofuels to 6Mbpd and further Energy Major venture opportunities.
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A devastating new wave of drone technologies could place the world's largest and most vulnerable energy infrastructure into the firing line of aggressors. This short note reviews the ten facets of drone swarms that make them so dangerous. Hence we are increasingly concerned over supply disruptions in the 2020s.
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Will the future of refineries be to convert to bio-refineries, in order to meet a growing need for decarbonised fuels? This note reviews the opportunities and challenges, based on patent filings from Eni: the industry leader in bio-refinery technology. Costs are 80% below newbuilds, but we question ultimate scale and the ability to lower palm oil inputs.
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This note outlines 200MTpa of potential upside to consensus LNG demand, due to emerging technologies, in power and transportation. LNG use could thus compound at an 8% CAGR to 800MTpa by 2030, justifying greater investment in unsanctioned LNG projects.
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What if there were a technology to sequester CO2, double shale productivity, earn 15-30% IRRs and it was on the cusp of commercialization? Promising momentum is building, at the nexus of decarbonised gas-power and Permian CO2-EOR. This short note highlights the economic opportunity.
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30-60% of Oil Majors' ROACE is explained by their technologies. This is our finding from correlating 3,000 oil patents versus returns on capital. Technology leaders can generate 2x higher corporate ROACEs. Downstream segments are most sensitive.
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Petrobras has patented next-generation riser designs, to handle sour-service crude from pre-salt Brazil. This is needed after riser-failures at Lula. But complexity is an order of magnitude higher for Petrobras's new solution. A simpler alternative is the growing potential from thermo-plastic composite pipe.
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Could next-generation combustion technologies be used to decarbonise oil-fired transportation, raising the trajectory of long-term oil demand? We review a leading oil company's patents to commercialise oxy-combustion in vehicles, along with the challenges. The outlook remains more positive for gas than for oil.
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We see enormous opportunity in CO2-EOR in the Permian basin. Occidental Petroleum has now published laboratory analysis, informing its models and de-risking the technique. This short note profiles our "top five" conclusions from the paper.
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Small delivery robots can achieve 100-400x higher fuel economies than conventional, oil-powered vehicles. We profile Starship, whose fleet is now covering c400km/day. Energy demand in transportation is evolving.
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Shale's light mix is often criticised for distorting oil product markets. But distortions create opportunities for Integrateds. This note explores one opportunity, patented by Chevron, to convert ethylene into diesel.
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Shell is the most active Major in driving new LNG demand. In 2019, it patented a new sub-cooler to improve the ascent of LNG in transportation. Our note explains the challenges of boil-off and gas-weathering, how they are addressed by Shell's new technology, and eight resulting advantages.
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ExxonMobil has developed industry-leading technology for greenfield LNG cosntruction, particularly in remote geographies. This conclusion follows from reviewing 3,000 patents. We analyse its edge the and resultant opportunities, as new projects progress in Mozambique, PNG and on the US Gulf Coast.
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In 2019, Shell pledged $300M of new investment into forestry. TOTAL, BP and Eni are also pursuing similar schemes. But can they move the needle for CO2? In order to answer this question, we have tabulated our ‘top five’ facts about forestry. We think Oil Majors may drive the energy transition most effectively via developing … Continue reading "Lost in the Forest?"
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A "good battery" enhances the efficiency of the total energy system. A "bad battery" diminishes it. Hence we have quantified battery quality, ranging from 3.5x efficiency gains for EVs to c30% efficiency losses for grid-scale hydrogen. This distinction must not be overlooked in the world's quest for cleaner energy.
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Multiple records have just been broken for an LNG-powered ship, as construction completed at Heerema's "Sleipnir" crane-lift vessel. It is a remarkable, LNG-powered machine, substantiating the 40-60MTpa upside we see for LNG demand, from fuel-intensive ships, after IMO 2020.
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A typical operator can readily save $1/boe via continued, digital deflation. Our numbers are derived from a new case study from Cognite, which is among the leaders in oilfield digitization, collaborating with cutting-edge E&Ps. Digitization remains the most promising opportunity to improve offshore economics.
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Perovskites are the fastest-improving innovation in solar. The best test-cells hit a new record of 28% efficiency last year, with line-of-sight to the mid-30s, i.e., 2x more efficient than today's silicon photovoltaics. We review the opportunities and challenges. A Major is at the cutting edge.
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The downstream industry is debating whether IMO 2020 sulphur regulations will be resolved quickly or slowly. We think the market-distortions may be prolonged by under-appreciated technology challenges, which mandate large, increasingly hard-to-finance refinery overhauls.
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This note contains our ‘Top Five’ conclusions about the Oil Majors’ research partnerships, drawing off our database of 3,000 oil company patents. Different companies have importantly different approaches. We can quantify this, by looking at the number of patents co-filed with partners (chart above).
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The IEA has cautioned that global energy investment may be falling short. Spending of $1.6trn in 2018 may need to rise $220-270bn pa by 2025-30. We argue the best way to attract this capital is through the opportunities in better energy technology.
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We categorised 300 of the Oil Majors' technologies according to their technical maturity. The most exciting are those on the cusp of commercialisation, not simply the most mature. We found Majors that work on earlier-stage technologies also had better overall technologies. Value can be maximised by a rich funnel of opportunities.
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Tethered kites access 2-4x more wind-power at 50-90% lower costs than turbines. Intriguingly, Exxon and Shell are now at the forefront of the new opportunity.
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It would be unwise to under-estimate the complexity of creating a new LNG province, with a 50MTpa prize ultimately on the table in Mozambique. Hence we have tabulated our 'top ten' examples of Chevron's LNG-relevant technologies, from reviewing over 200 of the company's patents so far.
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EOG has patented a system to run pressure and temperature sensors in its frac plugs, which are then retrieved at the surface, providing low cost data on each frac stage. The data improve subsequent stages. We estimate the NPV uplifts at $1M/well.
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We have assessed whether gas is a competitive trucking fuel, comparing LNG and CNG head-to-head against diesel, across 35 different metrics (from the environmental to the economic). Total costs per km are still 10-30% higher for natural gas, even based on $3/mcf Henry Hub, which is 5x cheaper than US diesel.
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Pioneer Natural Resources is improving the accuracy of its Midland basin depth-models by up to 40%, using a machine-learning algorithm to re-calibrate its seismic from well logs. Faster drilling and better production rates should follow.
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The Majors' deepening interest in shale was illustrated by Chevron's $50bn acquisition of Anadarko. To see who else wants more shale, we have counted the number of shale research-studies, by company, in our databases from 2018.
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