Energy company patent reviews

TSE Patent Assessments: a summary?

New technologies for the energy transition range across renewables, next-gen nuclear (fission and fusion), next-gen materials, EV charging, battery designs, CCS technologies, electronics, recycling, vehicles, hydrogen technologies and advanced bio-fuels. But which companies and technologies can we de-risk?

One way to appraise new technologies for the energy transition is to lock yourself in a room with a stack of patents from publicly available patent databases, read the patents, and then score them all on an apples-to-apples framework.

Our technology assessment framework is derived from 15-years experience evaluating energy technologies, from the best of the best world-changing technologies, to companies that ultimately turned out to have over-promised. The framework includes five areas:

(1) Specific problems. We find it easier to de-risk patents that pinpoint specific problems that have hampered others, and set about to solve these problems.

(2) Specific solutions. We find it easier to de-risk patents that pose specific solutions, whereas it is harder to de-risk technologies that are more vague.

(3) Intelligibility. We find it easier to de-risk patents that explain why their inventions work, often including empirical data and underlying scientific theory.

(4) Focused. We find it easier to de-risk patents that all point towards commercializing a common invention, and different aspects of that invention. Conversely, patenting 10 totally different solutions might suggest that a company has not yet honed in upon a final product.

(5) Manufacturing details. We find it easier to de-risk patents that explain how they plan to manufacture the inventions in question. Sometimes, very specific details can be given here. Otherwise, it may suggest the invention is still at the ‘science stage’.

The purpose of this data-file is to aggregate all of our patent assessments in a single reference file, so different companies’ scores can be compared and contrasted. The average score in our patent assessment framework is 3.5 out of 5.0, although there is wide variability in each category.

In each case, we have tabulated the scores we ascribed each company on our five different screening criteria, metrics on the companies’ size and technical readiness and a short description of our conclusion. You can also view all of our individual patent assessments chronologically.

Howmet: turbine blade breakthroughs?

Howmet is an engineered metals company, and the world’s #1 supplier of airfoils (blades and vanes) for jet engines and gas turbines. The company has claimed an edge in direct-casting cooling channels (rather than drilling them) and bond coats that improve the adherence of Thermal Barrier Coatings. Our Howmet gas turbine technology review found support for these claims, via reviewing a dozen patents.

Howmet Aerospace is a US engineered metals company, which goes back to 1888, has 23,200 employees, and is listed on NYSE.

Howmet’s business is c50% engine products (in turn, 70% of which comprise blades and vanes for both jet engines and gas turbines, where it is the world’s #1 supplier), 20% fastening systems, 15% engineered structures and 15% forged wheels.

Our recent work has argued that the global gas turbine market will double from 50 GW pa in the past five years to 100 GW pa in the 2024-30 timeframe, and in turn, our cost breakdown of a gas turbine ascribes about 20% of total installed costs to engineered metal components such as blades, vanes, rings, seals, bearings, nozzles, guides and fasteners.

The laws of thermodynamics dictate that hotter inlet temperatures will lead to more efficient and more powerful turbines, both in jet engines and in gas turbines. But very hot metals tend to deform and melt, even when made from super-alloys.

Howmet has claimed an edge in manufacturing engine and turbine components, hinging on the ability to cast (rather than drill) cooling channels, improve the adherence of Thermal Barrier Coatings to metals using bondcoats, and via automating high-labor operations.

Our Howmet gas turbine technology assessment found strong support for these claims, with key patents locking up cast cooling features, platinum-aluminium-hafnium bond coating ‘recipes’. Full details are in the data-file, including our best guesses on the patent expiry timings.

It was also interesting to note that Howmet’s products are essential to the F-35 fighter jet, lighter aircraft with >50% carbon fiber use 2-3x higher-value fasteners, Howmet’s largest Forging Press is 50,000 tons and 10 stories tall, while Howmet is also the largest producer of forged aluminium wheels that are 45% lighter than steel, improving fuel efficiency by 5% and/or 3% greater payload capacity on 18-wheeler trucks.

Advanced metal businesses might be considered an example of companies meeting the triple challenge of energy transition.

Kraken Technologies: smart grid breakthrough?

Kraken Technologies is an operating system, harnessing big data across the power value chain, from asset optimization, to grid balancing, to utility customer services. We reviewed ten patents, which all harness big data, of which 65% optimize aspects of the grid, and 40% are using AI. This all supports electrification, renewables and EVs.

Octopus Energy is a private UK utility, founded in 2015, with 3,000 employees, serving 8M customers, offering the UK’s largest “smart-tariff” where prices are adjusted according to time-of-use.

Kraken Technologies is an operating system, developed by Octopus, harnessing big data from increasingly digital power networks and smart meters, in order to enable utility solutions, from asset optimization to improved customer services (details in the data-file).

This Kraken technology review explored ten patent families in Espacenet, and how they are being used to enable Virtual Power Plants, Grid Balancing, Frequency Support, Reactive Power Compensation, Fault Localization, Grid Monitoring, Customer Support and Energy Savings. It is a long and impressive list, which shows the potential of smart grids.

For example, electric vehicles, heat pumps and residential solar arrays collectively represent large loads, but are all individually too small to participate in balancing markets. One of the Kraken patents receives data from smart meters, filters noise, prioritizes data that matter, calculates flexible load within 5 seconds, then relays back balancing instructions to individual devices.

Effectively all of the patents that we reviewed focused on what can be achieved by aggregating more big data within power grids, 65% looked at optimizing various aspects across the utility value chain using the data, and 40% are using AI.

Our observations on the patent library are also discussed in the data-file, while we have summarized six of the patents in particular detail. We have argued that greater digitization of historically dumb power networks will unlock an additional c10% integration of wind and solar, beyond the natural limits suggested by their volatility.

Groq: AI inference breakthrough?

Comparison of GPU and LPU energy use. LPUs could be 4.5x more efficient

Groq has developed LPUs for AI inference, which are up to 10x faster and 80-90% more energy efficient than today’s GPUs. This 8-page Groq technology review assesses its patent moat, LPU costs, implications for our AI energy models, and whether Groq could ever dethrone NVIDIA’s GPUs?

Groq is a private company, founded in 2018, with 250 employees, based in Mountain View, California, founded by ex-Google engineers. The company raised a $200M Series C in 2021 and a $640M Series D in August-2024, which valued it at $2.8bn.

The Groq LPU is already in use, by “leading chat agents, robotics, FinTech, and national labs for research and enterprise applications”. You can try out Meta’s Llama3-8b running on Groq LPUs here.

Groq is developing AI inference engines, called Language Processing Units (LPUs), which are importantly different from the GPUs. The key differences are outlined in this report, on pages 2-3.

Across our research, we have generally used a five-point framework, in order to determine which technologies we can start de-risking in our energy transition models. For Groq, we found 46 patent families, and reviewed ten (chart below). Our findings are on pages 4-5.

Our latest published models for the energy consumption of AI assumed an additional 1,000 TWH of electricity use by 2030, within a possible range of 300 – 3,000 TWH based on taking the energy consumption of computing back to first principles. Groq’s impact on these numbers is discussed on pages 6-7.

NVIDIA is currently the world leader in GPUs underlying the AI revolution, which in turn underpins its enormous $3.6 trn of market cap at the time of writing. Hence could Groq displace or even dethrone NVIDIA, by analogy to other technologies we have seen (e.g., the shift from NMC to LFP in batteries). Our observations are on page 8.

For our outlook on AI in the energy transition, please see the video below, which summarizes some of the findings across our research in 2024.

AI and power grid bottlenecks?

Ideal Power: Bi-Directional Bipolar Junction Transistors?

Bi-Directional Bipolar Junction Transistors are an emerging category of semiconductor-based switching device, that can achieve lower on-state voltage drops than MOSFETs and softer, faster switching than IGBTs, to improve efficiency and lower component count in bi-directional power converters. This data-file screens B-TRAN patents from Ideal Power.

LFP batteries are 20% lower-cost than NMC, and as low as $50-60/kWh in China in 2024, per our recent research note into the rise of LFP. But they are also 15% less energy-dense, which reduces the range of electric vehicles. So could range be restored by improving electronics?

Ideal Power is a small-cap US company, commercializing bi-directional junction transistors (B-TRANs), with ultra-low voltage drops in their on-state (better than a MOSFET) and soft-switching even amidst rapid switching (better than IGBTs). The company states that this could improve electric vehicle efficiency by 7-10%.

Ideal Power’s patent library was high-quality, based on using the usual criteria in our patent-based technology assessments, with over 60 Patent Families in EspaceNet, mostly optimizing the performance of BTRANs, securing a moat around the technology.

Several patents specifically addressed the optimization of these devices, challenges that have been encountered and overcome, and the manufacturing of double-sided semiconductors, in an industry that has historically only fabricated components on the front side of chips.

How does a bi-directional bipolar junction transistor work? We have pieced together the diagram below from Ideal Power’s disclosures.

Schematic of a bi-directional bipolar junction transistor

Key challenges that stood out to us, with Ideal Power’s bi-directional bipolar junction transistors, are noted in the data-file.

For helpful background into how semiconductors work, which may be useful context alongside this review, please see our overview of semiconductor physics.

Semiconductor physics: pièce de resistance?

Air Products: ammonia cracking technology?

Can we de-risk Air Products’s ammonia cracking technology in our roadmaps to net zero, which is crucial to recovering green hydrogen in regions that import green ammonia from projects such as Saudi Arabia’s NEOM. We find strong IP in Air Products’s patents. However, we still see 15-35% energy penalties and $2-3/kg of costs in ammonia cracking.

Air Products is an industrial gas giant, listed in the US, with 23,000 employees, producing atmospheric gases, operating 100 hydrogen plants with 3bcfd of capacity and a 600-mile pipeline network on the Gulf Coast, helium and LNG process technologies. It is expanding into blue hydrogen and green hydrogen + hydrogen transport.

The NEOM Green Hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia aims to export 1.2MTpa of green ammonia, derived from 220kTpa of green hydrogen, in turn derived from 4GW of wind and solar, with total capex of $8.4bn.

However, the part of the hydrogen->ammonia->hydrogen value chain that has seemed most challenging to us is in cracking ammonia back into hydrogen. The key challenges for ammonia cracking are energy intensity, costs, longevity and impurities.

Hence in this data-file, we have assessed Air Products’s ammonia cracking technology. The patents are high-quality: clear, specific, intelligible, focused and manufacturable. Hence we think Air Products has invested material time and effort in optimizing the ammonia cracking process, and has built a moat around its technology.

Specific details in the data-file focus on catalyst compositions (patented), heat recapture (patented), ammonia recirculation (patented), product purification (patented), breaking down impurities (patented), avoiding various impurities, avoiding nitriding (patented), and integration with hydrogen fueling stations (patented).

But overall, the details in the patents also remind us how complex the process of ammonia cracking back into hydrogen really is. We estimate gross energy penalties equivalent to using up around 25% of the ammonia that is imported, and net energy penalties of 15% (after reflecting the higher energy content of hydrogen versus ammonia).

Energy penalties and efficiencies for ammonia cracking.

The costs of cracking ammonia into fuel-cell grade green hydrogen are modeled in the range of $2-3/kg, both in this model, and in our model of hydrogen transportation.

Hydrogen: lost in transportation?

Eastman: molecular recycling technology?

This patent screen reviews Eastman’s molecular recycling technology. Specifically, Eastman is spending over $2bn, to construct 3 plants, with 380kTpa of capacity, to break down hard-to-recycle polyesters back into component monomers, with 20-80% lower CO2 intensity than virgin product. We find evidence for 30-years of fine-tuning, and can bridge to 10% IRRs if buyers pay sufficient premia for the recycled outputs.

Eastman Chemical is a specialty materials company, founded in 1920, once part of Kodak, headquartered in Tennessee, with 14,000 employees, 2023 revenues of $9.2bn, EBIT of $1.3bn, and market cap of $11.5bn at the time of writing. It has 36 manufacturing facilities in 12 countries.

The reason for this patent screen is to explore whether Eastman has an edge in hard-to-recycle polyesters, via the methanolysis technology it has been fine-tuning for the past 30+ years, and where it is spending over $2bn to construct three 110-160kTpa facilities in the US and Normandy.

Specifically, Eastman notes “we are transforming the plastics industry by creating solutions that enable a circular economy for plastics, where waste is minimized and materials are reused and recycled… by leveraging our unique molecular recycling technologies, which allow us to convert plastic waste into high-performance, high-quality products”.

This data-file contains our notes on Eastman’s three polyester methanolysis plants, at Kingsport (Tennessee), Longview (Texas) and Normandy (France), tabulating disclosures into their capacities, costs and energy/CO2 intensities, which are 20-80% lower than virgin polyester production, which starts via naphtha cracking.

We have also assessed the economics of Eastman’s methanolysis technology, which dissolves polyesters in ethylene glycol and dimethyl terephthalate, then uses 200ºC methanol at 30-50 psi of pressure to cleave apart the ester bonds, releasing more ethylene glycol and dimethyl terephthalate, which can later be separated out. We have based our EBIT calculations on ten years of polymer pricing history and on our broader model of mechanical plastic recycling.

Prices of materials relevant to plastics recycling: waste PET, ethylene glycol, dimethyl terephthalate, and methanol.

What economics for polyester methanolysis? IRRs, margins and total EBITDA for Eastman’s molecular recycling technology, at different pricing premia, are discussed in the data-file. 10% IRRs are achievable at these projects if buyers are willing to pay a premium for recycled products.

Cost of polyester methanolysis throughout the years and the cost buildup from different expense categories.

Finally, our sense from reviewing Eastman’s polyester methanolysis patents is that 30-years have been spent fine-tuning the yields, efficiency and resiliency. The key positive for us, was the patent disclosure into improved catalysts, which seems well locked-up.

The key challenge is the complexity of Eastman’s molecular recycling technology, which still seems sensitive to feedstock contaminants. Purifying side-reaction products is also adding to the high capex costs and complexity. More details from our patent review are in the data-file.

Prysmian E3X: reconductoring technology?

Patent assessment of Prysmian E3X technology.

Prysmian E3X technology is a ceramic coating that can be added onto new and pre-existing power transmission cables, improving their thermal emissivity, so they heat up 30% less, have 25% lower resistive losses, and/or can carry 25% increased currents. This data-file locates the patents underpinning E3X technology, identifies the materials used, and finds a strong moat around the technology.

In 2018, Prysmian acquired General Cable in a $3bn deal, apparently outbidding China’s Hengtong, plus Nexans and NKT, who were also interested. Prysmian thus gained access to General Cable’s E3X technology, which has exciting potential for reconductoring transmission lines.

E3X is a thin yet durable ceramic coating, with 0.9x emissivity factor and 0.2x solar absorptivity factor, that can be applied to the outside of power transmission cables, thereby helping the conductors to dissipate heat. This matters as hot cables are more resistive and also tend to sag causing electrical hazards.

For comparison, note that bare aluminium cables have a notoriously poor heat emissivity factor, around 0.16x, which is one of the key reasons they heat up and hit sag limits.

Hence compared to other cables operating under the same conditions, E3X cables have 30% lower temperatures, which can improve conductivity and lower operating losses by 25%; or it can allow for 25% increased ampacity within the same sag/loss limits. Data in our chart below come from testing of E3X at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Test results of Prysmian E3X cable coating.

At least 20 North American utilities have now trialed or deployed Prysmian E3X technology to improve the carrying capacity of their network. It is also included as standard for one of the leading manufacturers of advanced conductors. Hence this technology looks interesting.

How does Prysmian E3X technology work and is it locked up with patents? Our answers to this question are based on locating the underlying patents and reviewing them. Our findings are in this data-file.

The patents behind E3X score very well on our patent assessment framework, for reasons in the data-file. And we can also guess at the composition of E3X ceramic coatings, which interestingly, will pull on demand for silicon carbide?

Full details are available in this data-file, while for clients with TSE’s written subscription, we have added some conclusions into our research note into advanced conductors.

Advanced Conductors: current affairs?

Cemvita Factory: microbial breakthroughs?

Cemvita is a private biotech company, based in Houston, founded in 2017. It has isolated and/or engineered more than 150 microbial strains, aiming to valorize waste, convert CO2 to useful feedstocks, mine scarce metals (e.g., direct lithium extraction) and “brew” a variant of gold hydrogen from depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. This data-file is our Cemvita Factory technology review, based on exploring its patents.

Microbes can be engineered and cultivated to catalyze specific chemical reactions, in bio-reactors, when fed with nutrients (sugars, proteins, salts).

One reaction is the fixation of carbon from CO2, although this does invariably involve supplying energy to overcome the strong 799kJ/mol enthalpies of C=O bonds (O=O is just 498kJ/mol).

Bond enthalpies of common single and double bonds, and the Nitrogen triple bond, in kJ per mole.

In depleted oil wells, unrecovered hydrocarbons can be decomposed into CO2 and hydrogen, and Cemvita’s spin-out, Gold Hydrogen, has made headlines describing trial results in the Permian.

However, we think the reactions that Cemvita is trying to catalyse are mostly endothermic, and would therefore need to be energized by nutrients fed to the microbes. For example, if the nutrients are sugar solution, then $500/ton sugar is akin to sourcing input energy at a relatively expensive 11c/kWh-th. Including inefficiencies and side reactions, the resultant energy costs of hydrogen production are quantified in a tab of the model.

We were not entirely able to de-risk Cemvita’s aspirations for sub-$1/kg gold hydrogen, based on our Cemvita Factory technology review, which evaluated the disclosures in its patents. There were specific issues with economics and additives, and the purity of CO2 that is generated (some very granular details are available in the data-file).

The Patents tab contains a concise summary of each patent we reviewed, its aims, what is patented, and our observations. The wide breadth was notable compared to other patent libraries that we have reviewed.

Please also see our broader research into gold hydrogen and direct lithium extraction. We still think that pre-existing technologies, in both spaces, have a long runway ahead, without necessarily being disrupted. Other engineered hydrogen approaches have interested us.

Natural hydrogen: going for gold?

Direct lithium extraction: ten grains of salt?

May 1, 2024

Oklo: fast reactor technology?

Oklo is a next-generation nuclear company, based in California, recently going public via SPAC at a $850M valuation, backed by Sam Altman, of Y-Combinator and OpenAI fame. Oklo’s fast reactor technology absorbs high-energy neutrons in liquid metal and targets ultimate costs of $4,000/kW and 4c/kWh. What details can we infer from assessing Oklo’s patents, and can we de-risk the technology in our roadmap to net zero?

Oklo was founded in 2013, is headquartered in California, and has c50 employees. Sam Altman, of Y-Combinator and OpenAI fame, has been the Chairman of Oklo since 2015 and is CEO of the acquisition company, AltC, which has taken Oklo public via SPAC, with a listing on NYSE, while also raising $500M, at a valuation of $850M.

The company is named in homage to the Oklo mine in Gabon, where rock samples from 1972 uniquely seemed to show small quantities of U-235 naturally fissioning in the Earth’s subsurface, probably because of groundwater acting as a moderator.

Oklo plans to commercialize a liquid metal fast reactor, called the Aurora powerhouse, with 15MWe of power, using a mixture of recycled nuclear fuel and fresh fuel. It is also developing a 50MWe solution.

Illustration of the structural elements in Oklo's fast reactor.

In 2023/24, its published targets envisaged starting up a plant in the 2026/27 timeframe, which would be one of the soonest of the next-gen nuclear concepts we have screened.

Next-generation nuclear companies: future fission and fusion?

The 15MWe plant is ultimately envisioned to cost “less than $60M” (versus $2-5bn for 300-1,000MW alternatives). This equates to less than $4,000/kWe. Including investment tax credits, Oklo materials thus see LCOEs for carbon-free baseload potentially as low as 4c/kWh. Numbers can be stress-tested in our nuclear cost model.

In April-2024, Diamondback Energy also agreed a 20-year PPA to procure 50MW of emission-free electricity for its operations in the Permian Basin.

Hence can we de-risk Oklo’s fast reactor technology, based on its patents? What details can we infer from the patents? (chart above). How does the patent library look on our usual patent assessment framework? And what challenges are we considering in our risking of this technology to meet new loads such as data-centers and as part of our roadmap to net zero?

Oklo’s design is a liquid metal fast reactor, a small, prefabricated, non-pressurized liquid-metal-cooled fast reactor, moving beyond the ‘light water reactors’ used for most nuclear plants historically. Specifically, this means it harnesses energy from fast neutrons, each with >1MeV of energy, as generated from fission, without using water or graphite moderators to slow them down to the 0.025eV energy level that promotes fission.

Instead, fast neutrons are reflected back within the reactor core, absorbed directly as heat in liquid metal, and can also breed more fissile isotopes (as opposed to light water reactors that only tend to use c5% of their nuclear fuel). Specific details can be guessed based on Oklo’s patents.

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