Energy company patent reviews

TSE Patent Assessments: a summary?

New technologies for the energy transition range across renewables, next-gen nuclear (fission and fusion), next-gen materials, EV charging, battery designs, CCS technologies, electronics, recycling, vehicles, hydrogen technologies and advanced bio-fuels. But which companies and technologies can we de-risk?

One way to appraise new technologies for the energy transition is to lock yourself in a room with a stack of patents from publicly available patent databases, read the patents, and then score them all on an apples-to-apples framework.

Our technology assessment framework is derived from 15-years experience evaluating energy technologies, from the best of the best world-changing technologies, to companies that ultimately turned out to have over-promised. The framework includes five areas:

(1) Specific problems. We find it easier to de-risk patents that pinpoint specific problems that have hampered others, and set about to solve these problems.

(2) Specific solutions. We find it easier to de-risk patents that pose specific solutions, whereas it is harder to de-risk technologies that are more vague.

(3) Intelligibility. We find it easier to de-risk patents that explain why their inventions work, often including empirical data and underlying scientific theory.

(4) Focused. We find it easier to de-risk patents that all point towards commercializing a common invention, and different aspects of that invention. Conversely, patenting 10 totally different solutions might suggest that a company has not yet honed in upon a final product.

(5) Manufacturing details. We find it easier to de-risk patents that explain how they plan to manufacture the inventions in question. Sometimes, very specific details can be given here. Otherwise, it may suggest the invention is still at the ‘science stage’.

The purpose of this data-file is to aggregate all of our patent assessments in a single reference file, so different companies’ scores can be compared and contrasted. The average score in our patent assessment framework is 3.5 out of 5.0, although there is wide variability in each category.

In each case, we have tabulated the scores we ascribed each company on our five different screening criteria, metrics on the companies’ size and technical readiness and a short description of our conclusion. You can also view all of our individual patent assessments chronologically.

Air Products: ammonia cracking technology?

Can we de-risk Air Products’s ammonia cracking technology in our roadmaps to net zero, which is crucial to recovering green hydrogen in regions that import green ammonia from projects such as Saudi Arabia’s NEOM. We find strong IP in Air Products’s patents. However, we still see 15-35% energy penalties and $2-3/kg of costs in ammonia cracking.

Air Products is an industrial gas giant, listed in the US, with 23,000 employees, producing atmospheric gases, operating 100 hydrogen plants with 3bcfd of capacity and a 600-mile pipeline network on the Gulf Coast, helium and LNG process technologies. It is expanding into blue hydrogen and green hydrogen + hydrogen transport.

The NEOM Green Hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia aims to export 1.2MTpa of green ammonia, derived from 220kTpa of green hydrogen, in turn derived from 4GW of wind and solar, with total capex of $8.4bn.

However, the part of the hydrogen->ammonia->hydrogen value chain that has seemed most challenging to us is in cracking ammonia back into hydrogen. The key challenges for ammonia cracking are energy intensity, costs, longevity and impurities.

Hence in this data-file, we have assessed Air Products’s ammonia cracking technology. The patents are high-quality: clear, specific, intelligible, focused and manufacturable. Hence we think Air Products has invested material time and effort in optimizing the ammonia cracking process, and has built a moat around its technology.

Specific details in the data-file focus on catalyst compositions (patented), heat recapture (patented), ammonia recirculation (patented), product purification (patented), breaking down impurities (patented), avoiding various impurities, avoiding nitriding (patented), and integration with hydrogen fueling stations (patented).

But overall, the details in the patents also remind us how complex the process of ammonia cracking back into hydrogen really is. We estimate gross energy penalties equivalent to using up around 25% of the ammonia that is imported, and net energy penalties of 15% (after reflecting the higher energy content of hydrogen versus ammonia).

Energy penalties and efficiencies for ammonia cracking.

The costs of cracking ammonia into fuel-cell grade green hydrogen are modeled in the range of $2-3/kg, both in this model, and in our model of hydrogen transportation.

Hydrogen: lost in transportation?

Eastman: molecular recycling technology?

This patent screen reviews Eastman’s molecular recycling technology. Specifically, Eastman is spending over $2bn, to construct 3 plants, with 380kTpa of capacity, to break down hard-to-recycle polyesters back into component monomers, with 20-80% lower CO2 intensity than virgin product. We find evidence for 30-years of fine-tuning, and can bridge to 10% IRRs if buyers pay sufficient premia for the recycled outputs.

Eastman Chemical is a specialty materials company, founded in 1920, once part of Kodak, headquartered in Tennessee, with 14,000 employees, 2023 revenues of $9.2bn, EBIT of $1.3bn, and market cap of $11.5bn at the time of writing. It has 36 manufacturing facilities in 12 countries.

The reason for this patent screen is to explore whether Eastman has an edge in hard-to-recycle polyesters, via the methanolysis technology it has been fine-tuning for the past 30+ years, and where it is spending over $2bn to construct three 110-160kTpa facilities in the US and Normandy.

Specifically, Eastman notes “we are transforming the plastics industry by creating solutions that enable a circular economy for plastics, where waste is minimized and materials are reused and recycled… by leveraging our unique molecular recycling technologies, which allow us to convert plastic waste into high-performance, high-quality products”.

This data-file contains our notes on Eastman’s three polyester methanolysis plants, at Kingsport (Tennessee), Longview (Texas) and Normandy (France), tabulating disclosures into their capacities, costs and energy/CO2 intensities, which are 20-80% lower than virgin polyester production, which starts via naphtha cracking.

We have also assessed the economics of Eastman’s methanolysis technology, which dissolves polyesters in ethylene glycol and dimethyl terephthalate, then uses 200ºC methanol at 30-50 psi of pressure to cleave apart the ester bonds, releasing more ethylene glycol and dimethyl terephthalate, which can later be separated out. We have based our EBIT calculations on ten years of polymer pricing history and on our broader model of mechanical plastic recycling.

Prices of materials relevant to plastics recycling: waste PET, ethylene glycol, dimethyl terephthalate, and methanol.

What economics for polyester methanolysis? IRRs, margins and total EBITDA for Eastman’s molecular recycling technology, at different pricing premia, are discussed in the data-file. 10% IRRs are achievable at these projects if buyers are willing to pay a premium for recycled products.

Cost of polyester methanolysis throughout the years and the cost buildup from different expense categories.

Finally, our sense from reviewing Eastman’s polyester methanolysis patents is that 30-years have been spent fine-tuning the yields, efficiency and resiliency. The key positive for us, was the patent disclosure into improved catalysts, which seems well locked-up.

The key challenge is the complexity of Eastman’s molecular recycling technology, which still seems sensitive to feedstock contaminants. Purifying side-reaction products is also adding to the high capex costs and complexity. More details from our patent review are in the data-file.

Prysmian E3X: reconductoring technology?

Patent assessment of Prysmian E3X technology.

Prysmian E3X technology is a ceramic coating that can be added onto new and pre-existing power transmission cables, improving their thermal emissivity, so they heat up 30% less, have 25% lower resistive losses, and/or can carry 25% increased currents. This data-file locates the patents underpinning E3X technology, identifies the materials used, and finds a strong moat around the technology.

In 2018, Prysmian acquired General Cable in a $3bn deal, apparently outbidding China’s Hengtong, plus Nexans and NKT, who were also interested. Prysmian thus gained access to General Cable’s E3X technology, which has exciting potential for reconductoring transmission lines.

E3X is a thin yet durable ceramic coating, with 0.9x emissivity factor and 0.2x solar absorptivity factor, that can be applied to the outside of power transmission cables, thereby helping the conductors to dissipate heat. This matters as hot cables are more resistive and also tend to sag causing electrical hazards.

For comparison, note that bare aluminium cables have a notoriously poor heat emissivity factor, around 0.16x, which is one of the key reasons they heat up and hit sag limits.

Hence compared to other cables operating under the same conditions, E3X cables have 30% lower temperatures, which can improve conductivity and lower operating losses by 25%; or it can allow for 25% increased ampacity within the same sag/loss limits. Data in our chart below come from testing of E3X at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Test results of Prysmian E3X cable coating.

At least 20 North American utilities have now trialed or deployed Prysmian E3X technology to improve the carrying capacity of their network. It is also included as standard for one of the leading manufacturers of advanced conductors. Hence this technology looks interesting.

How does Prysmian E3X technology work and is it locked up with patents? Our answers to this question are based on locating the underlying patents and reviewing them. Our findings are in this data-file.

The patents behind E3X score very well on our patent assessment framework, for reasons in the data-file. And we can also guess at the composition of E3X ceramic coatings, which interestingly, will pull on demand for silicon carbide?

Full details are available in this data-file, while for clients with TSE’s written subscription, we have added some conclusions into our research note into advanced conductors.

Advanced Conductors: current affairs?

Cemvita Factory: microbial breakthroughs?

Cemvita is a private biotech company, based in Houston, founded in 2017. It has isolated and/or engineered more than 150 microbial strains, aiming to valorize waste, convert CO2 to useful feedstocks, mine scarce metals (e.g., direct lithium extraction) and “brew” a variant of gold hydrogen from depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. This data-file is our Cemvita Factory technology review, based on exploring its patents.

Microbes can be engineered and cultivated to catalyze specific chemical reactions, in bio-reactors, when fed with nutrients (sugars, proteins, salts).

One reaction is the fixation of carbon from CO2, although this does invariably involve supplying energy to overcome the strong 799kJ/mol enthalpies of C=O bonds (O=O is just 498kJ/mol).

Bond enthalpies of common single and double bonds, and the Nitrogen triple bond, in kJ per mole.

In depleted oil wells, unrecovered hydrocarbons can be decomposed into CO2 and hydrogen, and Cemvita’s spin-out, Gold Hydrogen, has made headlines describing trial results in the Permian.

However, we think the reactions that Cemvita is trying to catalyse are mostly endothermic, and would therefore need to be energized by nutrients fed to the microbes. For example, if the nutrients are sugar solution, then $500/ton sugar is akin to sourcing input energy at a relatively expensive 11c/kWh-th. Including inefficiencies and side reactions, the resultant energy costs of hydrogen production are quantified in a tab of the model.

We were not entirely able to de-risk Cemvita’s aspirations for sub-$1/kg gold hydrogen, based on our Cemvita Factory technology review, which evaluated the disclosures in its patents. There were specific issues with economics and additives, and the purity of CO2 that is generated (some very granular details are available in the data-file).

The Patents tab contains a concise summary of each patent we reviewed, its aims, what is patented, and our observations. The wide breadth was notable compared to other patent libraries that we have reviewed.

Please also see our broader research into gold hydrogen and direct lithium extraction. We still think that pre-existing technologies, in both spaces, have a long runway ahead, without necessarily being disrupted. Other engineered hydrogen approaches have interested us.

Natural hydrogen: going for gold?

Direct lithium extraction: ten grains of salt?

Oklo: fast reactor technology?

Oklo is a next-generation nuclear company, based in California, recently going public via SPAC at a $850M valuation, backed by Sam Altman, of Y-Combinator and OpenAI fame. Oklo’s fast reactor technology absorbs high-energy neutrons in liquid metal and targets ultimate costs of $4,000/kW and 4c/kWh. What details can we infer from assessing Oklo’s patents, and can we de-risk the technology in our roadmap to net zero?

Oklo was founded in 2013, is headquartered in California, and has c50 employees. Sam Altman, of Y-Combinator and OpenAI fame, has been the Chairman of Oklo since 2015 and is CEO of the acquisition company, AltC, which has taken Oklo public via SPAC, with a listing on NYSE, while also raising $500M, at a valuation of $850M.

The company is named in homage to the Oklo mine in Gabon, where rock samples from 1972 uniquely seemed to show small quantities of U-235 naturally fissioning in the Earth’s subsurface, probably because of groundwater acting as a moderator.

Oklo plans to commercialize a liquid metal fast reactor, called the Aurora powerhouse, with 15MWe of power, using a mixture of recycled nuclear fuel and fresh fuel. It is also developing a 50MWe solution.

Illustration of the structural elements in Oklo's fast reactor.

In 2023/24, its published targets envisaged starting up a plant in the 2026/27 timeframe, which would be one of the soonest of the next-gen nuclear concepts we have screened.

Next-generation nuclear companies: future fission and fusion?

The 15MWe plant is ultimately envisioned to cost “less than $60M” (versus $2-5bn for 300-1,000MW alternatives). This equates to less than $4,000/kWe. Including investment tax credits, Oklo materials thus see LCOEs for carbon-free baseload potentially as low as 4c/kWh. Numbers can be stress-tested in our nuclear cost model.

In April-2024, Diamondback Energy also agreed a 20-year PPA to procure 50MW of emission-free electricity for its operations in the Permian Basin.

Hence can we de-risk Oklo’s fast reactor technology, based on its patents? What details can we infer from the patents? (chart above). How does the patent library look on our usual patent assessment framework? And what challenges are we considering in our risking of this technology to meet new loads such as data-centers and as part of our roadmap to net zero?

Oklo’s design is a liquid metal fast reactor, a small, prefabricated, non-pressurized liquid-metal-cooled fast reactor, moving beyond the ‘light water reactors’ used for most nuclear plants historically. Specifically, this means it harnesses energy from fast neutrons, each with >1MeV of energy, as generated from fission, without using water or graphite moderators to slow them down to the 0.025eV energy level that promotes fission.

Instead, fast neutrons are reflected back within the reactor core, absorbed directly as heat in liquid metal, and can also breed more fissile isotopes (as opposed to light water reactors that only tend to use c5% of their nuclear fuel). Specific details can be guessed based on Oklo’s patents.

Cummins: diesel engine and generator technology?

Cummins is a power technology company, listed in the US, specializing in diesel engines, underlying components, exhaust-gas after-treatment, diesel power generation and pivoting towards hydrogen. We reviewed 80 patents from 2023-24. What outlook for Cummins technology and verticals in the energy transition?

Our recent research suggests power grid bottlenecks, while the rise of AI will also increase the market for diesel gen-sets from 3GW pa to 7 GW pa.

Hence we have been exploring companies in medium-scale commercial and industrial power generation, such as Generac.

Cummins was founded in 1919, headquartered in Indiana, with 75,500 employees and is listed on NYSE with c$40bn of market cap in 2024.

Cummins has filed c5,000 patents historically. We reviewed 80 of the most recent patents filed in 2023-24. Most are clear, articulate specific issues that need to be addressed, including lower-cost or easier manufacturing, then describe specific components and solutions alongside detailed engineering diagrams.

The breakdown of Cummins’s business, by revenue, EBITDA and patent filing focus surprised us, with lower exposure to power generation and a growing focus upon hydrogen.

Based on patent filings, it may even seem as though power generation is being de-prioritized, while hydrogen is being heavily re-prioritized and comprised c15% of recent patents in 2023-24 (chart below).

However the largest focus area remains its core business of diesel engines and exhaust-gas after-treatment (to remove NOx). Our long-term oil demand outlook does see growing demand in this end market.

Exhaust from a diesel engine contains NOx and particulates. An after-treatment unit typically reduces NOx into N2 and H2O using a 30-35% solution of urea in 65-70% deionized water. Heated urea decomposes: CO(NH2)2 + H2O -> 2NH3 + CO2. NH3 then reacts with NO: 4NH3 + 4NO + O2 -> 4N2 + 6H2O. The urea solution is marketed under brands such as AdBlue from BASF. Cummins is among the largest vendors of after-treatment systems in the world, worth >$5bn pa in sales.

However, this business is casting off the shadow of a $1.7bn Clean Air Act fine in 2023, for installing defeat devices. Yet we did find clear, specific and detailed patents improving after-treatment systems.

Another large component of the patents focuses upon diesel engines, improving the fuel economy and resiliency of engines, valves, pistons, cylinders and other components. Details are in the data-file.

This data-file contains our conclusions into Cummins’s diesel engine and generator technology, a broader outlook for some of the company’s verticals, and some undiplomatic comments which we should probably have left out.

BrightLoop: clean hydrogen breakthrough?

Is Babcock and Wilcox’s BrightLoop technology a game-changer for producing low-carbon hydrogen from solid fuels, while also releasing a pure stream of CO2 for CCS? Conclusions and deep-dive details are covered in this data-file, allowing us to guess at BrightLoop’s energy efficiency and a moat around Babcock’s reactor designs?

Chemical Looping Combustion harvests the energy from a fuel, while also producing a relatively pure stream of CO2, by avoiding the oxidation of the fuel in air (78% nitrogen) and instead circulating solid carrier particles through separate reactors (schematic below).

We first wrote about decarbonized carbon in 2019, in a note that identified NET Power’s Allam Cycle Oxy-Combustion process as the leading concept in the space. NET Power has since become a public company with $1.7bn market cap at the time of writing.

Hence what other decarbonized carbon technologies are worth watching? Since 2023, Babcock & Wilcox has been vociferously describing its BrightLoop technology, which is a Chemical Looping Combustion (CLC) technology generating clean hydrogen from hydrocarbon fuels (e.g., coal, biomass, waste or possibly gas).

Babcock & Wilcox is an American energy services company, founded in 1867, headquartered in Akron, Ohio, with 2300 employees, listed on NYSE. It has a $100M market cap at the time of writing, targeting $1bn pa of revenues in 2024 and $100-110M of EBITDA.

Could BrightLoop be a gamechanger? Babcock has said that BrightLoop “greatly reduces the amount of energy and fossil fuel required to produce hydrogen”. And its costs can be “better than current large-scale hydrogen generation technologies such as SMR”. It has been piloted in three locations since 2014. The first commercial unit is in development. And the company has said BrightLoop ultimately has the potential to generate another $1bn pa in revenues.

Hence how does BrightLoop technology work? We have reviewed Babcock’s BrightLoop patents in order to address this question. The image below is based on some guesswork from one of three patents in particular.

We think the patents are high-quality, enabling us to guess at the reaction conditions and energy economics of BrightLoop. Conclusions and deep-dive details are covered in this data-file. We also found many underlying components that are locked up with patents.

Future variants of BrightLoop are also suggested by the patents, which could produce both CO and H2, for clean methanol or Fischer-Tropsch fuels.

LONGi: technology review and solar innovations?

This data-file is our LONGi technology review, based on recent patent filings. The work helps us to de-risk increasingly efficient solar modules, a growing focus on perovskite-tandem cells, and low-cost solar modules, with simple manufacturing techniques that may ultimately displace bottlenecked silver from electrical contacts. Key conclusions within.

LONGi is the largest solar module producer in the world, on a trailing 5-year basis, producing 60GW of PV modules in 2023, founded in 2000, headquartered in Xi’an with shares publicly listed in Shanghai. The company features in our screen of solar module manufacturers.

LONGi aims to continue driving efficiency gains through the solar industry, especially via HJT cells and perovskite tandem cells. In November-2023, LONGi set a new world record of 33.9% cell-level efficiency for a silicon-perovskite tandem cell, which is the first ever cell to surpass the Shockley-Queisser (S-Q) theoretical efficiency limit.

Hence in this LONGi technology review, we have evaluated twenty recent patent families, mainly those filed from 2022 and 2023. Our conclusions, and key learnings from this exercise, are in the data-file.

Manufacturing details were the highlight. One patent covers the nineteen step process from silicon wafer to finished cell, step by step. What surprised us is the high reliance on simple processes (e.g., polymer adhesive tapes, lasering, vapor deposition) and away from more complex semiconductor manufacturing techniques.

Increasing efficiency was the underlying focus in 80% of LONGi’s patents (chart below). Increasing efficiency historically explains 40% of solar cost deflation and is very likely set to continue.

The breadth of options being explored strongly suggests that solar module efficiency will continue improving by at least 0.5%+ per year (absolute terms), and likely higher as perovskite/tandem cells reach commerciality (details in the data-file).

Silver bottlenecks in the solar industry have been a major feature in our recent research, and across our work into silver. 30% of the patents in our sample focused on ways to displace silver out of PV modules. Updated conclusions on silver are in the data-file.

Key challenges for perovskite/tandem solar cells are also described in LONGi’s patents, and summarized in our LONGi technology review. But how much can we de-risk the solutions intended to overcome these challenges, and how much running room lies ahead?

Origen Carbon: DAC breakthrough?

Origen Carbon Solutions is developing a novel DAC technology, producing CaO sorbent via the oxy-fuelled calcining of limestone with no net CO2 emissions. It is similar to the NET Power cycle, but adapted for a limestone kiln. The concept is very interesting. Our base case costs are $200-300/ton of CO2. This data-file contains our Origen DAC technology review.

Origen Carbon Solutions was spun-out from the University of Oxford in 2013, now has around c50 employees and is privately owned, with recent capital from HBM Holdings, Elemental Exelerator and Frontier (i.e., Stripe, Google, Meta).

The ZerCal process, being piloted by Origen in 2023, aims to decompose limestone (CaCO3) using an oxy-fired flash calcining process which emits no net CO2. The CaO can then be used as a DAC sorbent, reacting with atmospheric CO2 to form CaCO3 solids.

A key challenge in post-combustion CCS is the need to separate CO2 (4-40% concentration) from air (mostly nitrogen). Amines can do this, but the process is costly, energy intensive and amines can be degraded by contaminants.

Oxy-combustion is an alternative approach that avoids introducing air/nitrogen into the combustion process, instead re-circulating exhaust gases, and then adding pure oxygen from an air separation unit or swing adsorption plant.

Hence the post-combustion reaction products are limited to CO2 and water (i.e., there is no nitrogen). CO2 and H2O can easily be separated. In the power sector, a similar approach is famously being taken by NET Power to produce very low-carbon gas power.

Oxy-combustion in limestone kilns is covered in Origen’s patents (schematic below). Note that this is different from other DAC designs. It is not an L-DAC design, nor an S-DAC design, nor an E-DAC design, but an oxy-fired combustion design.

DAC costs of $200-300/ton may be achievable based on simple, back-of-the-envelope calculations, using Origen’s patent disclosures. Please download the data-file to stress-test capex costs, gas prices, oxygen costs, limestone costs, and other opex.

Possible DAC costs from oxy-fuelled calcination of limestone

CaO is an interesting DAC sorbent because it will slowly react with ambient CO2 without having to incur the high energy costs of fans and blowers. It could work well in petroleum basins with stranded gas that might otherwise be flared.

Another advantage that is cited in the patents is that the oxygen plant and excess heat from the oxy-fuelled calcining reaction can demand shift to help backstop (increasingly volatile) power grids (i.e., a ‘smooth operator‘), including amidst the build out of renewables.

Another particularly interesting patent adapts the process to oil shale that contains over c20% organic material and over c30% carbonate. It is noted that oxy-fired combustion of this low-grade resource could generate heat and electricity, its own CO2 could be captured directly from the plant, while the ‘waste product’ of CaO could be used as a DAC sorbent (see row 8 of the Patents tab for some mind-blowing numbers!).

Our Origen DAC technology review draws out details from these disclosures, excitement over the concept, and key question marks that remain for de-risking commercialization.

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