Metals
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Yttria-stabilized zirconia: sticker shock?
Global yttrium output is just 10-15kTpa, worth $100M pa, of which c90% is controlled by China. Yet a supply disruption for this critical metal could have ripple effects comparable to an oil shock: de-railing developed world load growth, aircraft manufacturing and the rise of AI? This 15-page report tells the story of yttria-stabilized zirconia, explores…
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Rare Earth mining and refining: the economics?
The costs of Rare Earth mining and refining are captured in this model, requiring a $70/kg blended product price, to generate a 20% IRR on $150,000/Tpa of capex. Primary energy intensity exceeds 100 MWH/ton and CO2 intensity exceeds 20 tons/ton. Economics are particularly sensitive to ore grade, recovery rates and chemical costs.
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Global commodity demand: sensitivity to GDP?
Global commodity demand is levered to GDP. Specifically, for each +/- 1% acceleration or deceleration in global GDP, commodity demand tends to accelerate or decelerate by +/- 1.4%, with a 70% R-squared, across 25 examples that are indexed in this data-file. Oil demand sensitivity to GDP is particularly interesting.
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Radioactivity of materials: energy, Rare Earths and nuclear?
This data-file captures the radioactivity of materials: ranging from 10Bq/kg in sea-water, to 100Bq/kg in humans, to 300Bq/kg in Brazil nuts (the most radioactivity food), to 1,000Bq/kg in coal ash, 2,000Bq/kg in copper tailings, 0.5-1MBq/kg in Rare Earth concentrates and tailings, to 4M Bq/kg in uranium ore, 0.2 bn Bq/kg in nuclear fuel and 10-100…
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Solvent extraction: Rare Earth separations?
How are Rare Earths separated and concentrated? The process uses solvent extraction in mixer-settlers. It will typically cost over $10/kg, and possibly in the hundreds of dollars per kg. Solvent extraction costs are highly variable and can be stress-tested in this data-file.
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Global commodity trade: by product by region?
Commodities comprise over $6trn of of the world’s $33trn pa in global trade, or around 20%, alongside $10trn in services, $2trn of electronic goods, $1trn in cars, $1trn in mechanical capital goods. This data-file breaks down global commodity imports and exports, by country and by region.
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Conveyor costs: economics of moving bulk material?
Conveyors are often the most economical way to move bulk materials over long distances, e.g., from a mine to a processing plant, with an economic cost of $0.1/ton-km, in order to generate a 10% IRR on capex, opex and other costs. These costs are c30% lower than for heavy trucks, opex is at least 60%…
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Howmet: turbine blade breakthroughs?
Howmet is an engineered metals company, and the world’s #1 supplier of blades and vanes for jet engines and gas turbines. It has claimed an edge in direct-casting cooling channels (rather than drilling them) and bond coats that improve the adherence of Thermal Barrier Coatings. Our Howmet gas turbine technology review found support for these…
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Going platinum: PGMs in energy transition?
Could PGMs experience another up-cycle through 2030, on more muted EV sales growth in 2025-30, and rising catalyst loadings per ICE vehicle? This 16-page note explores global supply chains for platinum and palladium, the long-term demand drivers for PGMs in energy transition, and profiles leading PGM producers.
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Leading PGM producers: mining, refining and recycling?
This data-file is a screen of leading PGM producers and recyclers. Eight companies control 90% of global production. Most are mid-caps. Four have primary listings in South Africa. Three are listed in Europe and the UK. Ore grades average 4 grams/ton, and recovery requires 60GWH/ton of energy, emitting 40kT/ton of CO2. But do recent company…
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