the research consultancy for energy technologies
Our written research into the energy transition profiles different opportunities, “how they work”, their costs, technical challenges, and leading companies; in PDF research reports that are available to TSE subscription clients.
Our philosophy is that research into the energy transition should help decision-makers by breaking down this enormous topic into concise research notes, each of which tackles a single specific question. Then tackles that question as concisely as possible. In no more than 10-20 pages. (Our job is not to write ‘War and Peace’. It is to save you time and get you the right information quickly, simply).
All of the underlying data behind our research into the energy transition is published transparently on our website. If there are any specific questions that you would like to be addressed with a TSE research note, then please do email us, and we are happy to add your questions onto our research list.
All of our written research into the energy transition is summarized on this page, in chronological order, for clients with our ‘written insights subscription’.
A Kardashev scale civilization uses all the energy it has available. Hence this 16-page report explores ten futuristic uses for global energy, which could absorb an additional 50,000 TWH pa by 2050 (60% upside), mainly from solar. And does this leap in human progress also allay climate concerns better than pre-existing roadmaps to net zero?
Absorption chillers perform the thermodynamic alchemy of converting waste heat into coolness. Interestingly, their use with solid oxide fuel cells may have some of the lowest costs and CO2 for powering and cooling AI data-centers. This 14-page report explores the opportunity, costs and challenges.
The grid-forming inverter market may soon inflect from $1bn to $15-20bn pa, to underpin most grid-scale batteries, and 20-40% of incremental solar and wind. This 11-page report finds that grid-forming inverters cost c$100/kW more than grid-following inverters, which is inflationary, but integrate more renewables, raise resiliency and efficiency?
What if achieving Net Zero by 2050 and/or reaching 1.5ºC climate targets now has a <3% chance of success, for reasons that cause decision-makers to backtrack, and instead focus on climate adaptation and broader competitiveness? This 14-page report reviews the challenges. Can our Roadmap to Net Zero be salvaged?
Solar trackers are worth $10bn pa. They typically raise solar revenues by 30%, earn 13% IRRs on their capex costs, and lower LCOEs by 0.4 c/kWh. But these numbers are all likely to double, as solar gains share, grids grow more volatile, and AI unlocks further optimizations? This 14-page report explores the theme and who benefits?
Energy transition is a triple challenge: to meet energy needs, abate CO2 and increase competitiveness. History has now shown that ignoring the part about competitiveness gets you voted out of office?! We think raising competitiveness will be the main focus of the new administration in the US. So this 15-page report discusses overlooked angles around energy competitiveness, and updates our outlook for different themes.
Howmet is an engineered metals company, and the world’s #1 supplier of airfoils (blades and vanes) for jet engines and gas turbines. The company has claimed an edge in direct-casting cooling channels (rather than drilling them) and bond coats that improve the adherence of Thermal Barrier Coatings. Our Howmet gas turbine technology review found support for these claims, via reviewing a dozen patents.
Howmet Aerospace is a US engineered metals company, which goes back to 1888, has 23,200 employees, and is listed on NYSE.
Howmet’s business is c50% engine products (in turn, 70% of which comprise blades and vanes for both jet engines and gas turbines, where it is the world’s #1 supplier), 20% fastening systems, 15% engineered structures and 15% forged wheels.
Our recent work has argued that the global gas turbine market will double from 50 GW pa in the past five years to 100 GW pa in the 2024-30 timeframe, and in turn, our cost breakdown of a gas turbine ascribes about 20% of total installed costs to engineered metal components such as blades, vanes, rings, seals, bearings, nozzles, guides and fasteners.
The laws of thermodynamics dictate that hotter inlet temperatures will lead to more efficient and more powerful turbines, both in jet engines and in gas turbines. But very hot metals tend to deform and melt, even when made from super-alloys.
Howmet has claimed an edge in manufacturing engine and turbine components, hinging on the ability to cast (rather than drill) cooling channels, improve the adherence of Thermal Barrier Coatings to metals using bondcoats, and via automating high-labor operations.
Our Howmet gas turbine technology assessment found strong support for these claims, with key patents locking up cast cooling features, platinum-aluminium-hafnium bond coating ‘recipes’. Full details are in the data-file, including our best guesses on the patent expiry timings.
It was also interesting to note that Howmet’s products are essential to the F-35 fighter jet, lighter aircraft with >50% carbon fiber use 2-3x higher-value fasteners, Howmet’s largest Forging Press is 50,000 tons and 10 stories tall, while Howmet is also the largest producer of forged aluminium wheels that are 45% lighter than steel, improving fuel efficiency by 5% and/or 3% greater payload capacity on 18-wheeler trucks.
Advanced metal businesses might be considered an example of companies meeting the triple challenge of energy transition.
Kraken Technologies is an operating system, harnessing big data across the power value chain, from asset optimization, to grid balancing, to utility customer services. We reviewed ten patents, which all harness big data, of which 65% optimize aspects of the grid, and 40% are using AI. This all supports electrification, renewables and EVs.
Octopus Energy is a private UK utility, founded in 2015, with 3,000 employees, serving 8M customers, offering the UK’s largest “smart-tariff” where prices are adjusted according to time-of-use.
Kraken Technologies is an operating system, developed by Octopus, harnessing big data from increasingly digital power networks and smart meters, in order to enable utility solutions, from asset optimization to improved customer services (details in the data-file).
This Kraken technology review explored ten patent families in Espacenet, and how they are being used to enable Virtual Power Plants, Grid Balancing, Frequency Support, Reactive Power Compensation, Fault Localization, Grid Monitoring, Customer Support and Energy Savings. It is a long and impressive list, which shows the potential of smart grids.
For example, electric vehicles, heat pumps and residential solar arrays collectively represent large loads, but are all individually too small to participate in balancing markets. One of the Kraken patents receives data from smart meters, filters noise, prioritizes data that matter, calculates flexible load within 5 seconds, then relays back balancing instructions to individual devices.
Effectively all of the patents that we reviewed focused on what can be achieved by aggregating more big data within power grids, 65% looked at optimizing various aspects across the utility value chain using the data, and 40% are using AI.
Our observations on the patent library are also discussed in the data-file, while we have summarized six of the patents in particular detail. We have argued that greater digitization of historically dumb power networks will unlock an additional c10% integration of wind and solar, beyond the natural limits suggested by their volatility.
Groq has developed LPUs for AI inference, which are up to 10x faster and 80-90% more energy efficient than today’s GPUs. This 8-page Groq technology review assesses its patent moat, LPU costs, implications for our AI energy models, and whether Groq could ever dethrone NVIDIA’s GPUs?
Groq is a private company, founded in 2018, with 250 employees, based in Mountain View, California, founded by ex-Google engineers. The company raised a $200M Series C in 2021 and a $640M Series D in August-2024, which valued it at $2.8bn.
The Groq LPU is already in use, by “leading chat agents, robotics, FinTech, and national labs for research and enterprise applications”. You can try out Meta’s Llama3-8b running on Groq LPUs here.
Groq is developing AI inference engines, called Language Processing Units (LPUs), which are importantly different from the GPUs. The key differences are outlined in this report, on pages 2-3.
Across our research, we have generally used a five-point framework, in order to determine which technologies we can start de-risking in our energy transition models. For Groq, we found 46 patent families, and reviewed ten (chart below). Our findings are on pages 4-5.
Our latest published models for the energy consumption of AI assumed an additional 1,000 TWH of electricity use by 2030, within a possible range of 300 – 3,000 TWH based on taking the energy consumption of computing back to first principles. Groq’s impact on these numbers is discussed on pages 6-7.
NVIDIA is currently the world leader in GPUs underlying the AI revolution, which in turn underpins its enormous $3.6 trn of market cap at the time of writing. Hence could Groq displace or even dethrone NVIDIA, by analogy to other technologies we have seen (e.g., the shift from NMC to LFP in batteries). Our observations are on page 8.
For our outlook on AI in the energy transition, please see the video below, which summarizes some of the findings across our research in 2024.
Gas turbines should be considered a key workhorse for a cleaner and more efficient global energy system. Installations will double to 100GW pa in 2024-30, and reach 140GW in 2030, surpassing their prior peak from 2003. This 16-page report outlines four key drivers in our outlook for gas turbines, and their implications.