Decline Rates: the consensus?

This data-file tabulates market expectations for global decline rates, both their magnitude and their drivers, based on our ongoing survey, linked here.

Global decline rates are expected to average 5.2% in 2020-25, based on the results we have tabulated so far.  However, the consensus is broad, with a standard deviation of 2%.

Future declines are expected to be lower than past decline rates, of 5.7%. Although the rise of shale is seen increasing global decline rates, this is apparently being outweighed by the rise of digital technologies and offshore innovations.  Hence modestly more participants see 2020-25 oil markets as over-supplied than under-supplied.

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