Lula: how much growth left?

This data-file tracks the Lula oilfield, well-by-well, FPSO-by-FPSO, aggregating data from over 100 production reports, which are published monthly by Brazil’s national hydrocarbon regulator.

Hence we have formulated “production forecasts” for each FPSO, and for the entire field; in 2H19 and in 1H20. This matters for oil markets; and for pre-salt producers, such as Petrobas, Shell and Galp.

Our outlook is for slowing growth, due to rising water- and gas-cuts, which are reviewed well-by-well. One FPSO is now definitively constrained by gas-handling capacity. Another is off-plateau due to maturity. Six Lula FPSOs are now negotiating water-cuts, as shown in the data-file.

1H19 production was lower than expected, at just 72% of total installed FPSO capacity. Our notes attribute the drivers, and contextualise the growth ahead.