Revolutions and upheavals: are energy shortages a cause?

This data-file aims to assess whether spiking food and energy prices lead to political changes. Hence we have tabulated data from 138 elections over 60 years in 7 countries (the US, UK, France, Netherlands, Canada, Australia, New Zealand).

We find there is a >70% chance of regime change at the next election, after food and energy prices have spiked. Conversely, governments that are credited with re-stabilizing prices tend to remain in power for a decade. An example is shown below for the UK.

The data-file also explores the links between outright revolutions and food-energy price spikes, reviewing a dozen examples, from the French Revolution to the Iranian Revolution and Arab Spring. Food and energy prices can be a trigger, but the causality here is looser.

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